Will Chase go down to wire?
Edwards needs luck to catch Johnson
CORAL GABLES, Fla. - Improbable but not impossible.
That was how Carl Edwards described his chances yesterday of winning NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship heading into Sunday's Ford 400 finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Edwards needs to overcome a 141-point deficit to two-time defending champion Jimmie Johnson, who needs only to finish 36th to become the first driver since Cale Yarborough (1976-78) to win three consecutive NASCAR championships.
"I'm hoping Jimmie forgets how to drive or has some sort of trouble between now and Sunday," said Edwards, driver of the No. 99
Edwards, 29, of Columbia, Mo., knows he'll likely need more than that, however.
He knows he'll have to press the issue against Johnson, just as he did when he strung together back-to-back victories in Atlanta and Fort Worth to pull within 106 points of the lead with two races remaining in the Chase.
"We saw what happened with Jeff [Gordon's] engine last week," Edwards said, pointing to the woes suffered by Gordon's No. 24 Chevrolet, one of Johnson's stablemates at Hendrick Motorsports. "If something like that were to happen, we just have to make sure that we're there to capitalize and do the best. [Crew chief Bob Osborne] and I talked about it this week, and if you were to go out there and have trouble on the first lap, the most excruciating thing would be to finish eighth or ninth and still not make it happen.
"We have to go out there to try to win this thing and our plan is to go lead the most laps and win the race."
Johnson's 141-point lead appears to be insurmountable; only two drivers in NASCAR history have made up a deficit with one race to go. Richard Petty made up a 2-point deficit against Darrell Waltrip in 1979 to win the last of his seven NASCAR titles, and owner/driver Alan Kulwicki overcame a 30-point deficit to Davey Allison in 1992 to win his only championship.
Edwards, though, seemed to cling to one statistical anomaly that provided a glimmer of hope.
In 156 Cup races against Johnson, Edwards has never made up a deficit as large as the one he faces (6,561 points to 6,420). There was one notable exception. In 2005, Edwards made up 127 points on Johnson at Homestead, Fla. Edwards finished third in the Chase behind Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle. Johnson finished fifth.
When he was apprised of that fact, Edwards turned to Johnson, arched an eyebrow, and joked, "Have you heard that statistic? All right, good. You'd better be nervous then."
The room filled with laughter.
"That's good," Edwards said, acknowledging that statistical nugget unearthed by NASCAR's statistical writer Mike Forde. "I mean, this is racing. We've all raced long enough to know that anything can happen. It does make me feel good. That's the short answer. That's a confidence booster for me."
"The thing I'm impressed with is how the 99 teams show up regardless of the racetrack," said Johnson, noting how Edwards and his team managed to put together eight wins, 17 top fives, and 26 top 10s this season. "The mile-and-a-half stuff, they've been strong, but you go to Martinsville [where Johnson has won four of the last five races, including three in a row], he was running there in the top three all day long; Phoenix also.
"Road courses, you go through it all, and they are a very well-rounded team. We know we're going to have our hands full with [them]."
Edwards, the defending Nationwide Series champion, stands poised to become the first driver in NASCAR history to win a pair of touring series titles. He will enter tomorrow's Nationwide Series finale trailing Clint Bowyer by 56 points.
Given how hard he's raced to put himself in a position to contend for not only the Nationwide Series but also a Sprint Cup title, would Edwards still judge his season a success if he departed Homestead without a championship trophy?
"I can say with certainty, no matter what happens on Sunday, our team has become stronger, and I do feel like we can win at almost any racetrack we go to," he said. "We ran really well at places like Daytona this year; the road courses were great; Martinsville, a place I had struggled.
"So, no matter how it works out, the Cinderella story for us, or if Jimmie get this thing, I feel very positive and excited about the years to come. I think we're going to be great. That's how I look at this year, no matter what."
Michael Vega can be reached at vega@globe.com. 