FANTASY HUB BUB

ALEXANDER THE HOBBLED
For weeks, we've been wondering why Shaun Alexander has looked a lot like Kevan Barlow. A lot of sub-100 yard days, very little burst through the hole, and general lackluster production from last year's NFL MVP. Now we know the answer.

Apparently, the man who was a consensus top-three pick has a broken foot and will miss at least a few weeks. Yes, you really, really , really want Maurice Morris, who will be carrying the load in Seattle until he returns. And yes, I used three "reallys", so I must mean it. For years, word has been he's someone who could come in and be viable fantasy starter if ever needed. Well, he's needed, especially with the 3-0 Seahawks taking on the 3-0 Bears this weekend.

In the meantime, expect more big days from Matt Hasselbeck as Seattle's air attack is now officially more reliable than the ground game.

ADD INSULT TO INJURY
Like thousands of fantasy football owners, I set my lineups for the first time during the week, with the intention of tweaking them the morning of the games once Sunday's late scratches are in.

The thing is, between the Jewish High Holidays and family obligations, I didn't get back on my computer until the middle of Sunday's early games this past weekend. It happens to all of us. As a result, I wasn't sure Houshmandzadeh was playing, I had concerns about whether Todd Heap would be healthy enough to start, and Ahman Green was taken out of a few of my lineups once I read he'd tweaked a hamstring during Friday's practice and was suddenly questionable for the game.

That's four TDs I didn't get in various leagues. Quadruple ouch.

I'm not saying you should shirk family, religion, and other obligations just to make sure you're online and ready to make changes at 12:30 every Sunday afternoon. But if you want to win, that's what it takes.

IF IT AIN'T WESTBROKE, DON'T FIX IT
Continuing the above theme, I bet there were a lot of owners who didn't start Brian Westbrook due to continuing concerns about his foot and the fact that he was listed as questionable. But there was nothing questionable about three total TDs to go along with 117 yards on the ground and another 47 in the air.

That, my friends, is the fantasy football performance of the year, and having that happen on your bench is like watching your lucky numbers come up in the lottery the one week you don't buy a ticket.

OH HENRY
Not a reference to the playwright.

Chris Henry, now the No. 3 receiver in Cincy since T.J.'s return, has 10 catches for 182 yards and two scores in the last two weeks, and he's getting into rarified air as a third WR who actually deserves to be on your roster. It's only happened twice before in recent years, when Brandon Stokely excelled as the third option in Indy and a few years earlier when Az-Zahir Hakim earned his fantasy keep on those attacking Rams' teams a half decade ago.

I'm officially at the point where I'd rather have Henry, a No. 3 receiver, than many teams' No. 2 guy. Yes, Eric Moulds and Isaac Bruce, I'm talking to you.

A WINNER INSTEAD OF A WARNER
It seems that for the second time in three years, Kurt Warner has lost his starting QB job to a hotshot rookie who was supposed to be carrying a clipboard for a while.

Last time it was Eli Manning. This time it's Matt Leinart, who ESPN and the NFL Network are reporting will start in Warner's place this week. The move comes after Warner turned the ball over too many times (four interceptions and two fumbles) for a struggling team with high expectations.

If you didn't trade Warner after week one, you now get to drop him. As for Leinart, rookie QBs are rarely fantasy commodities, but considering the former Trojan QB has Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald to throw to, I'd certainly consider replacing Warner with him on my roster ... but only if Rex Grossman was already gone. I'm officially on board with him, even though doing so goes against at east one Commandment of the Fantasy Football Bible.

GIANT PROBLEM
Maybe you sat Plaxico Burress because he had nagging back issues all week and was on the injury report. But if you started him, you likely got killed by his butt issues, namely the fact that his posterior spent the majority of the game on the bench after he fumbled away the only ball he caught all day.

Please note, Giants HC Tom Coughlin could be on the verge of "losing" his team right now after Jeremy Shockey criticized his team's play and the coaching staff following their beat down at the hands of the Seahawks. You might remember, Barber did the same last year when the Giants lost in the playoffs.

So with the inmates trying to run the asylum, I don't think Coughlin is letting Plax out of his doghouse too quick, making Burress an intriguing "buy low" option. Don't give up too much, but at the end of the day, Coughlin knows he loses his job if the Giants have a losing season, and throwing the ball to Burress is crucial to winning games. So if you can get Plaxico cheap now, I'd say it's worth it.

Lots of stories to follow this week, and I'll check back in on Friday.

Until then, the Hub is closed.

Week 3 tips

There is no single non-Patriot player I enjoy more, both as a football fan and as a fantasy man, than Chad Johnson.

I know our beloved Pats would never tolerate a guy with a bleached mohawk who dubbed himself "7-11" because he's "always open"… but I love every bit of what he does.

He makes plays, backs up his smack talk, and has turned end zone celebrations into performance art.

This past week, he apparently was running his sizeable mouth at the Browns about how they haven't laid a good hit on him yet. Remember, this is the same team he sent Pepto-Bismol to a few years back because he claimed the stress from having to try and cover him would give them all upset stomachs.

So late in Cincy's 34-17 victory, with the game out of reach, Browns defender Brian Russell laid the wood on him right under the chinstrap, splitting his chin and knocking his helmet off.

Did it shut up Johnson?

Not according to an article in the Sporting News where Johnson said he had no hard feelings because they told him they were going to get him. His exact quote?

"I mean, it's the first time I've been hit in six years of playing. It's about time someone's gotten a lick."

It'll take a lot more than a split chin before I ever bench 7-11.

FANTASY HUB BUB

TJ Who's your daddy?
The guy who usually starts opposite Chad Johnson, namely T.J. Houshmandzadeh, finally is back on the practice field and looks like he'll start this weekend if the inserts in his shoes give him some relief from his hurt heel. This is stellar news for T.J.'s fantasy owners since he led the 2005 Bengals in being targeted in the red zone. That adds up to scores, people, especially when Carson Palmer is the guy throwing the ball.

But should you start him against the Steelers? I say yes unless you hear he's out. Thanks to Johnson's chatty ways, Johnson always draws double coverage and we saw last week that when defenses concentrate on Chad, it opens up the other side. Chris Henry, starting for Housh last week, exploded for 100+ receiving yards.

So let the Steelers try and close the 7-11 while T.J. gets his.

Something's Gotta Give
In pre-season, there was plenty of debate about which NFC South team would dominate: Tampa Bay or Carolina. This weekend, the two teams play each other… without a win between them.

One of them is going 0-3. So which team is going to play better, or less worse, and how will that affect fantasy production?

Both defenses have been pretty good overall, but their offenses have been awful. However, ESPN's Chris Mortensen has said the Panthers are finally feeling optimistic that Steve Smith might play.

If that happens, it changes the whole calculus, forcing Tampa to stop the pass, which would open things up for the slumping Panther ground game.

Monitor the situation, because it could affect your start-bench decisions.

Hello Bye
This is the first bye week of the NFL season, which means your Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders and Cowboys are nothing more than roster placeholders until week four.

But a quick piece of strategy regarding bye weeks. Look ahead. I know it sounds simple, but it's amazing how many fantasy owners don't do it. It's one thing to accidentally draft three RB's with the same bye week and know you'll have to make a move to rectify it. It's another thing to wait until the week they're all out and then try to fill in.

If I'm in your league, and you have Larry Johnson and Julius Jones, I am absolutely ranking you over the coals right now for whatever I can get since you need my Tatum Bell or Wali Lundy (who is losing touches starting this week, for the record) just so you can actually have enough starters.

It's like going to a flower store on Valentine's Day. They know you're buying some roses… it's just a question of how much they'll gouge you.

So if you've got Tiki Barber and Willie Parker, this is the week to make a few subtle moves so you aren't over a barrel before week four when they both sit.

Now let's hit a quick e-mail I got from rabid reader Chris:

"I just received the first ridiculous trade proposal of the season: A team wants to give me Roy Williams and Cadillac Williams for Stephen Jackson, claiming that I'd be getting a "top WR and a solid RB." Your thoughts?"

First of all, I think it's funny when people offer deals involving two or more players with the same last names. You could have an all "Jones" trade with Thomas and Julius, a very deep Jackson-for-Jackson deal with Steven being dealt for Darrel and Chad, and don't even get me started on how many Johnsons you could swap… especially because that sounds more than vaguely dirty.

Back to the e-mail, and I think it's always a good idea to listen to any trade offer and not just react too quickly. An offer is information you've gotten from the other player. He clearly isn't too high on Roy Williams or Cadillac Williams, so it's unlikely this is his best offer.

Chris has a loaded RB corps, with Jackson, Warrick Dunn, Rudi Johnson and Frank Gore, so this is how I responded:

You know, from a "sell high, buy low" POV that's not an awful offer. Especially because the Rams O-line has taken some hits.

I actually do think Roy Williams will be a top-12 WR this year (if he can keep his mouth shut and let his play do the talking), but I'm not sold on the idea that Cadillac will bounce all the way back. But It's actually a fair offer... just one I don't see you needing to take.

You do have extra RBs to deal, but I'd rather see you either deal Jackson straight up for Larry Fitzgerald (or someone of that type) or see if you can turn Gore into someone one tier down (Reggie Wayne).

Whatever he does, Chris will be trading from strength. Always a good idea.

All right. Enough preamble. Who you should be starting and who you should be sitting this week? As always, I will avoid the obvious names, so just because I don't mention Shaun Alexander's wonderful match-up against a Giants D that is giving up 25 points a game, doesn't mean I'm not high on him. It means I believe my readers have a significant portion of their brains intact.

QUARTERBACK

In the Game
I'm not interested in debating whether Michael Vick is a great athlete or a great quarterback. There's no debate he's playing the New Orleans Saints this week, a team who has yet to stop a QB. Granted, they have been rough on opposing RBs, and much of Vick's value is tied up in his legs, but I don't think the Saints can scheme for Vick's ability to improvise and turn nothing into something. He's one of the top five QBs this week for sure, especially in leagues where passing TD's are less than running TDs, since he'll likely get at least one of each.

Let's say you're a Drew Bledsoe owner. In between drinking heavily and worrying whether "Good Drew" or "Bad Drew" will show up each week, you've noticed that he's on a bye week. Enter Mark Brunell, who I am not a fan of. However, he's playing the Texans, his team is 0-2 and if he loses this game, he's likely getting benched. If he has a 250 yard, 2 TD performance left in his tired, beaten body...it's this game.

Ibid Daunte Culpepper. The Dolphins are playing an awful Titans team and if C-Pep is going to break through and show he's still the guy who dominated in Minny, this is the game he'll do it in. If you drafted him as your No. 1 QB, he should give you that level of production in week three.

And one more. John Kitna is facing Green Bay, a team that made Drew Brees look like Dan Marino a week after turning Rex Grossman into Roger Staubach. If you are the least bit dissatisfied with your starting QB, Kitna should get it done.

On the pine
Speaking of Drew Brees, his week two performance should be erased in a big way by Atlanta's stifling D. The Falcons shouldn't punish him or hurt him...they'll just keep him from going off. So don't expect another 300-yard week. In fact, don't start Brees at all.

Last week, I advised you against counting on great things from Kurt Warner. And in the interest of being repetitive…...don't count on great things this week either. He's playing his old team, the Rams, but St. Louis has been rebuilt around a fast defense that exploits mistakes. You can do better than Warner this Sunday.

Lastly, I'm one of many fantasy experts who thinks Rex Grossman should be off the waiver wire and on your roster. I even said so three days ago. But this is not the week to insert him into your line-up. Chicago plays Minnesota, and the Bears and Vikings are the only two teams with realistic hopes of winning the NFC North. As this is the old "black and blue" division, I expect a lot of hitting and a lot of running. If Grossman posts a big day, I'm officially on his bandwagon, but I think he has to take a step back against a tough D within the division.

RUNNING BACK

In the game
Fact: The Bills are better than we thought. Fact: The Jets D can be run on. Fact: Willis McGahee should break 100 yards and find the end zone this weekend. Fact: Writing short sentences is easier than writing long ones.

Per my comment on Rex Grossman, I think this is a week you can start Thomas Jones because the Bears could well run the ball 40 times. If he gets even 2/3rds of those carries, Jones could approach 100 yards, and whatever scoring is done in this game should happen on the ground.

And I think this is finally the week you can dust off that Clinton Portis you've been keeping under a tarp in your garage. His shoulder may not be 100 percent yet, but like I said before, the Skins need to win this week, they're playing one of the four worst D's in football, and chances are you used a pretty high pick on Portis. So why wait?

On the pine
Most weeks, starting Reuben Droughns is acceptable as your No. 3 RB or FLEX, or even as a bye week replacement for one of your heavy hitters. This is not one of those weeks. He's hurting and may not play, plus, even if he does suit up, the Baltimore D could turn the poor guy in to an orange and brown stain on the turf by the final whistle.

Some owners like Joseph Addai as the Colts' primary back, while others are fans of Domanick Rhodes. I wouldn't start either unless you were holding a bazooka to my head as the Colts face the Jags. No team commits to the run more than the Steelers, and they couldn't get anything going against the Jacksonville D. The Colts may have more luck since they can stretch the field with the pass, but still, between the splitting of carries and the opposition, I don't think either will help you this week.

And since the first two bench suggestions are kinda low risk, as few owners are relying too heavily on any of them, I'll make one more recommendation that isn't so safe. I know you likely used the No. 4 overall pick to get him, but I don't think you should be starting Tiki Barber in Seattle unless you have no other viable starters to take his place. Every ex-player who has an analyst job on TV has been talking about how Seattle has become one of the hardest places for opposing teams to play, Plus, after Eli's heroics last week, I bet he does plenty of passing, leaving less work for the ground game. Throw in Seattle's D, which has been the second stingiest against the run in the league in terms of fantasy points allowed, and I'm putting out the Tiki torch.

WIDE RECEIVER

In the game
Let's see. I've already pimped Brunell and Portis, I guess Santana Moss has to be mentioned for all the same reasons. Boy, am I gonna look stupid if Washington takes the pipe this Sunday against the Texans... of course, not as stupid as Daniel Snyder for spending all that dough or Joe Gibbs for coming out of retirement.

Darrell Jackson is a must-start against the Giants, who seem determined to get into shoot-outs. Deion Branch will not start this week according to the Seattle Post Intelligencer , which means Matt Hasselbeck will be looking for D-Jax a lot once again. It might be your last time to start him knowing he's the team's true No. 1, so enjoy it.

And if Steve McNairis going to get back on the same page with Derrick Mason, I like it to happen this week against Cleveland. McNair threw to Mason 11 times last week. If he completes a few more of those attempts, it could mean a big day for him.

On the pine
Regardless of whether Steve Smith is back, I'm not starting Keyshawn Johnson this week. Despite their 0-2 record, the Buccaneers have been rough on opposing WRs, partially because they've been so easy on RBs. But I don't see Keyshawn going off in this game because if Smith's back, he'll get a lot of the passes, and if Smith's out, the defense will make sure and shut down Johnson. Kind of a catch-22...without the catches.

I'm also leaving Hines Ward on the bench for another week. Ben Roethlisberger didn't look good and while there may have been other reasons besides the Jags D, I'm not putting all my eggs in Hines' basket until I see Big Ben have a good passing game… something he hasn't done since early in last year's playoffs. Throw in the fact that only two teams have held opposing wide-outs to fewer fantasy points than the Bengals have and it's just a bad moon rising.

Oh, and as high as you may be on Jerricho Cotchery of the Jets, take a deep breath and scale back expectations for this week. The Bills have been very good at stopping the opponents' wide receivers and while Laveranues Coles is such a solid veteran (and so hot right now) that I think you can still start him, I wouldn't go bumping a stud to get Cotchery into your lineup.

TIGHT END

In the game
Ugh...Chris Cooley is a Redskin, he's been disappointing thus far, he's playing the Texans...blah, blah blah. If he's not worth starting this week, he's worth dropping next week.

Guess which team has given up more points to opposing tight ends than any other. Nope...nope...getting closer. The Bears. As tough as their D is, they don't cover tight ends terribly well. In fact, they just moved a first-year player up to the starting safety spot to try and change that. So start Minny's Jermaine Wiggins (a Boston boy) and watch him school the rookie.

On the pine
As much as it pains me as a Pats fan, this is the week to let Ben Watson rest. Denver has shut down opposing tight ends like no other.

Ditto for Niners rookie Vernon Davis. The Eagles kept Jeremy Shockey in check last week. If they can do that, they can put the clamps on a guy with one sore shin and two NFL games under his belt.

DEFENSE

In the game
Miami's defense has been mediocre at best so far this year… but they will post some points against the Titans and are worth starting over more formidable D's facing good offenses.

You could also do worse than Detroit taking on Green Bay since a couple of turnovers seem likely.

On the pine
Jacksonville may be one of the top units this year, but we don't start defenses against Indianapolis unless Jim Sorgi is under center for the Colts.

I also would let the Seattle D take a breather against Eli and the Giants, just in case this turns into a game where both teams top 30 points.

KICKERS

I don't do kickers. Start someone who isn't Adam Vinatieri because he's hurting...and all of New England still can't believe he left.

THE HUB HUNCH

He hasn't been very good this year. He hasn't scored a TD yet. And he may be splitting carries this week, but I still think DeShaun Foster is too talented and too healthy to get shut down again. I say Smith plays, Carolina wins on the road, and Foster finds the end zone.

That's all I got.

The Hub is now closed.

Week 2 wrapup

You guys are wicked smart.

We posted a poll Friday asking who you'd start between Laurence Maroney and Corey Dillon and after nearly 500 people voted, the two were within one percent of each other. Turns out either were startable this past week as both found the end zone.

In other news, yes, the Oakland Raiders really are that bad, yes, the Bears really could be this good, and yes, there was a lot more scoring Week 2 than there was in Week 1.

Last week, only nine teams scored 24 or more points, while a dozen teams topped that mark this week. As a result, it probably took more points for you to win your fantasy matchup than it did in Week 1. Of course (he said with an air of unvarnished self-congratulation) if you read the Friday column and followed most of my suggestions, you had a decent chance of pulling down the extra yards and scores it took to get the "W."

Looking at my start and bench recommendations from last week, and classifying those picks as wins, ties and losses depending on whether I was right, wrong, or indistinguishably stuck in the middle, I went 14-4-4 overall.

Some highlights included pegging Drew Brees against the Packers as 300 yards waiting to happen, touting the receiving tandem of Andre Johnson and Antonio Bryant, and warning you to not press your luck after big first weeks by Kurt Warner and Michael Jenkins.

Oh, and I wrote this in regards to leaving Randy Moss on the pine, "I'm not sure his QB, Aaron Brooks, will even make it through this game." He didn't, and Moss was about as useful as scuba gear in Utah.

Which picks weren't so pick-tastic? Well, I missed on the suggestion to start Jamal Lewis. The game went exactly as I thought, but it was Mike Anderson, on his only carry of the day, who broke through for a 34-yard score. Also, I apologize to anyone who started Ben Troupe on my advice ... the only contribution he made in his game was a holding penalty. And if you sat the Jags' D on my advice, feel free to burn me in effigy. Jacksonville shrugged off their injuries and absolutely punished the Steelers.

Still, I'll take my overall record for the week, just like the Patriots will take their 2-0 record despite having only played 5 good quarters of football after two full games.

Some big stories and tough breaks (all puns intended) from this past weekend, so let's take a look.

FANTASY HUB BUB

T-OW!
Apparently, Terrell Owens' balky hamstring will have plenty of time to heal up now that he's looking at up to a month on the shelf thanks to a broken finger. Several sources have reported T.O. will have surgery this week and will miss 2-4 weeks with the kind of injury that affects a receiver a lot more than, say, a defensive tackle.

What's this mean to Fantasy Fan? First, if you have him, you have to hold on to him. The man has a history of coming back fast from broken bones, as we all remember from his performance in the Eagles' losing Super Bowl effort two seasons ago. Who won that one? Oh ... right.

But if you're thinking of trying to buy him while his value is low from another owner, let me put two thoughts in your mind. First, he has yet to build chemistry with Drew Bledsoe so it's unlikely he'll immediately be Drew's security blanket upon return. Right now, our old pal Terry Glenn is filling that role and as Bill Parcells might say, "She's doing so nicely." Second, T.O. has broken a bone now in three of the last four seasons. A collarbone was the issue in 2003, while it was his fibula in 2004, and now a finger in 2006. Considering he played less than half a season in 2005 before he broke the Eagles, we'll never know which bone was set to go last year.

All I'm saying is buyer beware ... and start Glenn if you got him.

MINI-MANNING
I am the kind of guy who admits when I'm wrong, although my wife might tell you different.

Coming into this season, I felt strongly that experts were ranking Eli Manning way too high, ignoring the fact that he was wildly inconsistent in 2005, and that his coach, Tom Coughlin, is classically an old school, run-first guy.

After seeing him endure more sacks than you'd find at a potato farm en route to leading his team back from a 17-point deficit in Philly, I'm willing to admit I was wrong. Peyton Manning was very good in his second full season as a starter, and great by his third. Eli is poised to repeat that path, and right now, matchups aside, I think he's only behind his brother, Donovan McNabb, and Carson Palmer in terms of being a worthy starting fantasy QB any given Sunday.

Wish I could say the same about Trent Green, who I had rated equally with Eli before the season started. Now one's throwing for 300 yards a game while the other is throwing up from post-concussion syndrome. As we say in Yiddish ... Oy.

TALK ABOUT OFFENSIVE
Until further notice, you shouldn't be starting any Carolina Panther offensive players against any halfway decent defenses if Steve Smith has been ruled out for the game. Quite simply, without his field-stretching, game-breaking abilities, defenses are not scared of the Carolina kitties. Jake Delhomme has been miserable (another guy I liked better than Eli three weeks ago) and according to my buddy Matthew Berry, of Talented Mr. Roto and ESPN2 fame, DeShaun Foster may lose his starting RB spot to D'Angelo Williams as soon as this week after Williams showed the only offensive spark on the team.

I'm not as sure Carolina head coach John Fox has that quick a trigger, but I'll watch it closely, and make sure I know when Smith returns since that's when the running game will open up again.

WARNING: THIS PROGRAM FEATURES EXCESSIVE GORE
After two weeks, Frank Gore is the highest scoring running back in most fantasy formats.

After two weeks, Frank Gore is the highest scoring running back in most fantasy formats.

I wrote it twice so you wouldn't have to go back and re-read the same sentence to make sure you'd fully understood it.

Any fantasy expert who claims he knew this would happen is either lying, or related to Gore. But his early season matchups did indicate he could start hot if he got the opportunity. Well the Niners' staff is giving him the opportunity in a big way.

Gore had 29 carries this week, and almost half of them came on second or third down, meaning San Francisco wasn't just handing him the ball on first down as a matter of ritual and then reacting to down and distance. If Gore was bacon, the St. Louis D was on the Atkins diet, because they got as much of him as they could handle and more.

I want to see what he does against an Eagles D that kept Tiki Barber under 100 total yards this past week before I proclaim him the man who would be king ... but I'm officially saying he needs to be in your lineup if you've got him.

CHAD HANGING BIG NUMBERS
Chad Pennington has now put up two straight nice weeks, the most recent coming against a very good New England D. Now we chowdaheads who were watching the game know that about 120 of his 306 yards came on that freakish play with Jericho Cotchery and an amazing run after the catch by Laveranues Coles.

Still, Coles and Pennington have chemistry together, and as long as both are healthy, the other should thrive. So if Pennington is still available, there is no appreciable downside to picking him up. But would I trade for him? Not likely, because I doubt I'd pay what it takes to get him.

But if I had him, and liked my primary QB, I think he might be the ultimate sell-high candidate. Why? Because he's never thrown for 3200 yards or tossed 23 TDs, and right now, he's on pace for 4800 yards and 32 TDs. Can you say "unsustainable pace" boys and girls? I knew that you could.

So pick him up in shallow leagues, keep him if you like him, or trade for him. Just don't pay through the nose to trade for him.

NEED CHANGE? GET A QUARTER-BACK
In addition to Pennington, the formerly undraftable Rex Grossman has suddenly vaulted into the realm of deserving to be on your roster.

Those of you who are fans of physics understand that two objects cannot occupy the same space at the same time. It works the same way in fantasy football. You can't ad a QB without getting rid of a QB. So who qualifies?

I know it's only been two weeks, but I'd rather have Grossman on my team than Mark Brunell, Chris Simms, Steve McNair, and Jake Plummer. Chicago is throwing more this year, and Grossman is finding his underneath receivers until the coverage opens up the deep ball to Bernard Berrian, a name worth knowing in leagues where TDs heavily outweigh yards and catches.

And when his matchup is good, Rex deserves to start more than Byron Leftwich, Brad Johnson and even Jake Delhomme when he's Steve Smith-less.

To a lesser extent, I'd even consider grabbing 49ers QB Alex Smith if I needed bye week help and my primary signal caller had a bye on a Sunday when Smith is scheduled to face Arizona, Oakland, New Orleans or Green Bay, with Simms and Brunell being the most likely drops.

* * * *

A quick e-mail I got last week from reader Dave W.

How do you think Marc Bulger will be affected by the loss of his center?

At the time, I said I thought he'd be fine, but the Rams lost their all-world left-tackle Orlando Pace to a concussion last week and there are no two linemen more important to a right-handed QB than the center and his left tackle.

Bulger had a fair day, with 185 yards a TD with no picks, but I think he's definitely only a borderline starter if Pace misses any time.

Another e-mail, this one from Anthony, who doesn't waste words.

Who should I start: Corey Dillon or Jamal Lewis?

He doesn't waste time either, as it's too soon to make firm decisions for next week. In fact, that's kinda what I told him.

The fact is, it's a bit early to make the call between Dillon and Lewis.

Both are facing teams that gave up 100+ yard rushers last week, and both play on 2-0 teams unlikely to get blown out and stop running late in the game.

So here's a conditional answer. If Lewis is not on the injury report (he's had hip flexor issues), I go with him because he's a similar runner to Rudi Johnson, who torched the Browns in week two.

If Lewis is questionable at any point this week, I go with Dillon because I can't risk a back not playing, or leaving a game early. As we've seen, Dillon will continue to get half the carries, and maybe more in a tight game.

So wait until the weekend to make the call. Both have the opportunity to contribute, but Jamal has the greater upside.

You know, much like playing golf, fantasy owners need to know when to go with low-risk and when to go with high-upside.

If your team is heavily favored over your competition, there's nothing wrong with starting a guy who's healthy, but unspectacular.

If you're the underdog, you likely need to start your most explosive lineup, even if it means risking some points by starting a guy who may have an injury.

And if you're looking for more fantasy-laden goodness ... you'll have to wait until Friday.

The Hub is now closed.

Week 2 tips

NFL week two and there's no doubt, the turf war between the Patriots and Jets, specifically their front offices, is not a fantasy.

Will the animosity spill over onto the field? I don't know, but as I wrote in my column for www.talentedmrroto.com, this week, I wouldn't put it past Bill Belichick to have filed tampering charges against the Jets just in time to help turn some of that anger in the locker room towards the team they're facing this week.

Is this specifically the kind of reckless speculation that Belichick despises and wouldn't even waste breath commenting on? Yes ... but I also would guess he doesn't acknowledge fantasy football exists, so I'm likely burning few bridges here.

What other fantasy-related football stories are out there? Let's take a look.

FANTASY HUB-BUB

When Will Big Ben Strike
Less than two weeks after an emergency appendectomy, Ben Roethlisberger is listed as questionable on the Steelers' injury report, but he's campaigning hard to get back into the mix and start this Monday night against Jacksonville.

You sure about that, Berger? The Jags picked off Drew Bledsoe three times and sacked him twice last week. Of course, Ben isn't Drew and doesn't hand out interceptions like they're miniature candy bars on Halloween. Still, between his injury status, Charlie Batch's strong performance in Week 1 against a just-as-tough Miami D, and the fact that it's a road game, I'd just pretend Ben was out for one more week. He's not your starter in Week 2, even if he's the Steeler's starter.

We Gado Get Out of This Place
Samkon Gado burst onto the fantasy landscape last year when everything short of the 10 plagues befell the running backs ahead of him in Green Bay. He was good, and a trendy late round pick in drafts this year because many believed returning starter Ahman Green was going to either get hurt, or struggle. And he may. But Green's opening-weekend performance of 110 rushing yards against the Bears D was impressive enough that the Packers dealt Gado to Houston for Texans backup Vernand Morency.

This actually elevates the value of both Green and Gado. Clearly, the Packer braintrust thinks Green is all the way back, which means you can count on him getting plenty of touches as long as he's healthy and playing. He's officially a great Flex option and a passable No. 2 back in fantasy formats.

Gado, meanwhile, is now behind rookie Wali Lundy in Houston and may already be ahead of Ron Dayne in terms of serving in the team's "big back" role. Gado doesn't need an injury to start playing a big role in Houston. He just needs to look good in his opportunities and for Lundy to struggle as he did last week against Philly. He's worth a spot on the end of your bench if you have room ... or if you have actually rostered Dayne.

WR Corps or WR Corpse?
It's perfectly reasonable to assume some fantasy owner out there happily emerged from his draft with a quartet of receivers made up of Steve Smith, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Joe Jurevicius and Roddy White.

That owner is now pulling out hair left and right.

Smith's hammy likely has him sitting again this weekend, while Housh is at least probable with a sore heel. Jurevicius does not have cracked ribs, as reported at one point this week, but it is true he's out. And White's hammy has left him probable, but facing a good, and embarrassed Tampa Bay D in Week 2.

As long as Housh remains probable, you start him against Cleveland. White you want no part of, regardless of whether he's healthy. And unless Smith has a signed note from his coach saying he will play the whole game, you can't take the risk. Hope you listened when I said you shouldn't be taking him in the first few rounds.

* * * *

Got an e-mail from reader, Chris, that I bet applies to many Fantasy Footballers, especially here in New England.

"Who should I start this week? Corey Dillon or Laurence Maroney? Help me out S-Pet."

Yeah ... the S-Pet thing doesn't quite work. Even S-Pete has no ring.

The closest I've come to working with that kind of nickname was back at sleep-away camp when my mother wrote "S.Peters" on the inside of all my clothes. For that summer ... I was "Speeders" to my bunkmates.

Anyway, back to the question at hand. This is what I replied to Chris.

Your question is one that's getting pondered by a lot of owners right now, and unfortunately, with Belichick offering zero insights into how he intends to divide up the carries at RB, we simply don't know the answer.

But looking at the way the Titans, another team with a time-share, fared against the Jets last week, here's what I'd suggest.

If your league values TDs way above yardage (ie, it's 6 points for a rushing TD and 1 point for 20 rushing yards) I think I'd still go with Dillon as I feel like the coaching staff believes in him on short yardage situations (i.e. the goal line) and in situations where a fumble could kill them (again, the goal line ... and late in games.)

If your league balances yardage and TDs (6 points for a TD and a point for 10 yards of rushing) or if you get a bonus for long TDs (i.e. TDs over 20 or 30 yards) then I think Maroney's explosiveness gives him the edge.

Realistically, I bet both contribute to the average fantasy team, but neither gets enough touches to truly be a difference maker in most formats.

How's that for riding the fence? (Editor's note: Which would you start on your team, Maroney or Dillon? Click here to vote)

All right, let's see which players should be In The Game or On The Pine this week.

Remember, I'm avoiding the obvious. Of course you want to start Carson Palmer against the Browns or Torry Holt against the Niners ... but then again, you'd start those guys against the '85 Bears! So don't take any of the below as a suggestion that these are better starts than your best players. These are guys I expect to exceed or fall short of expectations.

QUARTERBACK

In The Game
Last week, I wrote that the Tennessee D would make a starter out of Chad Pennington. This week, the Titans could do the same for Phillip Rivers. Coach Marty Schottenheimer only let Rivers throw 11 passes in last weeks' blowout over the Raiders, but the Titans are a bit better and Marty needs to see what the kid can do. Granted, this is really a call more for leagues in which you must start two QBs, or if you're a Trent Green owner needing a fill in ... but Rivers is a viable option for this week if you don't have a true stud to start.

In other news, Oakland is simply awful this year. In fact, this will be a theme in many of these start/bench decisions. Thus, I think Steve McNair is a fine start against the Raiders at home. Granted, he may not have to pass by the fourth quarter, but I bet he finds the end zone a couple of times with the field position his defense gives him.

If the Green Bay defense can give up over 260 yards and a score to Rex Grossman last week, I have to imagine Drew Brees will approach 300 yards. Again, I'm not saying start Brees over Peyton Manning, but if your mid-level starting QB has a nasty matchup, ain't nothing wrong with the man with the mole.

On the Pine
Could catch some flack for this one, but no matter how good Kurt Warner was last week, you can do better than him playing a Seattle D that was vicious in 2005 and allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to a QB last weekend. Yes, he's got outrageous receivers. But the Seattle D sacked Jon Kitna three times last week, forced three fumbles (only one of which they recovered) and Arizona's offensive line is still shaky at best.

Speaking of Kitna, you want no part of him against the Bears this week.

And while I'm going out on limbs, I think this isn't an awful week to sit Daunte Culpepper. He showed flashes of brilliance last week, and made some big mistakes too. The Buffalo D showed against Tom Brady last week that it can cover well and pressure the passer. Especially if linebacker Takeo Spikes can play, it's just not an ideal matchup and you probably have another option.

RUNNING BACK

In The Game
Dominic Rhodes got two-thirds of the carries last week and while he wasn't great, he also wasn't playing a Texans team that cannot stop the run. He may see 20 carries this week if Indy runs the ball like it should, and he will find the end zone again.

The Frank Gore Era continues, as he once again draws a soft divisional foe to run against. This time, he sees a St. Louis D that shut down Denver's passing game in week one, but allowed the two Bell Brothers to combine for over 160 yards. He deserves to be a Flex or RB No. 2 slot this week.

And yes, per my comment on Steve McNair, you'd be a fool not to make sure Jamal Lewis is starting against an abysmal Oakland Raider squad. The caveat is that as of Friday a.m., he is listed as questionable with his hip injury. He played through it last week ... but make sure he's probable Sunday morning. He was upgraded last week during the weekend, so it may happen again.

On The Pine
LaMont Jordan. Is the horse dead yet? I'll keep beating it. Jordan is a No. 2 RB in most leagues, and a possible No. 1 in leagues that offer points for receptions. But this week seems like the time to sit him down if you have any starting backs you can insert in his place. Did you see what the Ravens did to Carnell Williams last week? It was illegal in 11 states.

Kevin Jones may be the only guy out there with a worse matchup than Jordan. While Chicago dominated Green Bay last week, they allowed a lot of yards on the ground, a fact I expect Lovie Smith to correct. I put Jones on this list last week and he was decent. I'll give him the chance to burn me again because no way I'm starting him unless my other choices all are splitting carries.

And lastly, because of the crowded backfield in Tennessee, and the fact that two backs have turf toe and the third is coming off an ankle injury, and the fact that the San Diego run defense is niiiiiiiice, don't even consider starting any Titans running back.

WIDE RECEIVER

In The Game
You gotta love Andre Johnson going into this weekend. Fact: Indy is going to smoke Andre's Texans. Fact: Andre's a big, physical receiver and Indy's D is built on speed. Fact: The Texans will need to throw a lot to try and keep up. Expect 10 balls to go Andre's way. All he has to do is catch more than half of them and he's a strong play.

Antonio Bryant was someone I mentioned as a waiver wire pick-up in some leagues earlier in the week. I think he can go from the wire to your lineup this week. I'm not sold on St. Louis' defense, but I am sold that the offense should get ahead of the Niners and force Alex Smith to throw the ball. Last week, Smith looked For Bryant twice as often as any other receiver, and they had a 52-yard TD called back on a penalty ... and yes, it cost me a game, which is why I sound a bit bitter.

On The Pine
We've all seen the replays of Michael Jenkins' TD last weekend. It was a short pass, and a defender dove right past him, springing him for the score. Michael Vick is still a run-first guy who is learning, as he did on that play, to throw when he breaks containment. But because Jenkins scored and it was on ESPN, some might overlook the fact that he only caught three balls, and only saw five passes thrown his way all day. Not enough for me with Atlanta taking on a Bucs D still smarting from last week.

And I know I say start your studs, but I think you can bench Randy Moss this week if you have any other decent options. You know the drill. I'm not sure his QB, Aaron Brooks, will even make it through this game (he could get hurt or get benched). Now don't go sending him to the pine in exchange for a No. 3 WR on a mediocre team. This is still Randy Moss, who can catch a TD on a jump ball in the end zone. But if you have someone else with a great matchup, I'd play it.

With Trent Green hurt and replacement Damon Huard clearly looking for Tony Gonzalez more than any wide receivers, I think it's safe to sit Eddie Kennison this week, especially since he'll have Champ Bailey locked onto him.

TIGHT END

In The Game
When Kellen Winslow Jr. came into the league, he was supposed to be a top three tight end in no time. Instead, he got hurt, then got a motorcycle and then got hurt more. He's healthy, and making up for lost time. Most importantly, he is, by far, Charlie Frye's favorite target. Cincy's a great match-up for him after the way they let Gonzo go off on them last week.

I also think Ben Troupe deserves a start this week if you're on the fence. He's talented, he has his QB's attention, and Miami proved last week that athletic tight ends can get down the field on them for long scores.

On The Pine
I was high on Randy McMichael coming into the season, but didn't like what I saw last Thursday night. Looks to me like Nick Saban is keeping him in to block in an effort to keep Culpepper healthy. He only saw two passes come his way last week. If I have any other options, I want to see at least five targets for him before I put him back into my lineup.

DEFENSE

In The Game
I think that San Diego is a must-start against Tennessee, and Indy should pick off a David Carr pass or two, in addition to sacking him a handful of times.

On The Pine
I'd leave the Giants D on the bench this week. Philly's offense looked healthy and the G-men certainly didn't have the horsepower to keep the Colts off the board. Likewise, the Jaguars didn't look like they'd be able to contain Pittsburgh's run first, play-action later style. With several injuries to their defensive line, le' em go for a week.

KICKER

Sure, Jeff Wilkins won games for many teams, including the Rams, last week ... but kicker performance simply isn't predictable week to week. Start someone in a dome ... that's all I got.

THE HUB HUNCH

I don't think Tampa's offense is as bad as it looked last week, nor do I think the Atlanta D is as dominant as it seemed while playing a Carolina team that didn't have Steve Smith, the straw that stirs its defense-stretching drink. Chris Simms has to bounce back this week, and I think against a team that excels at stopping the run and one, he can do that by tossing to his tight end and whichever wide-out isn't being blanketed. I see 250 yards and at least a TD, possibly two, especially with two of the Falcons best pass-rushers hurting.

Just a hunch.

That's all for this week. Drop me a line with questions, or blast me for getting it all wrong.

The Hub is now closed.

Week 1 in focus

What was the biggest shocker in football this past weekend?

Baltimore treating Tampa Bay like Ivan Drago treated Apollo Creed? No ... though I had no idea Ray Lewis was back like that. Yeeesh.

St. Louis making Jake Plummer and the Broncos look sicker than a hypochondriac on a transatlantic flight? Uh-uh. Though we're getting closer.

No, the most unexpected event came about 8:30 p.m. on Sunday, when I actually saw a commercial during the night game that did not have Peyton Manning in it. Of course, I was watching the Colts versus Giants, so normalcy and balance was restored to the universe moments later when the game resumed and I got to see both Mannings on screen.

Seriously, Peyton, your 7-year, $98 million deal from 2004 means you can elect not to do a commercial or two. You're a quarterback ... pass occasionally.

OK let's get to the ...

FANTASY HUB BUB

Branch Out
As we all know by now, Deion Branch is now a Seattle Seahawk. It hurts all Patriots fans, but what does it do to fantasy players? I think Branch's value goes back to where it was before the holdout as Seattle, like New England, is a very good offensive team, led by an accurate QB who spreads the ball around. He's a good No. 2 WR on any team.

Ben Watson's value stays high now that there's no No. 1 receiver coming back to take away targets, and it also means that once Doug Gabriel and Chad Jackson are healthy, you should watch close to see which one starts getting the most looks from Tom Brady. Speaking of Brady, his value takes a slight hit until he develops chemistry with his new WR corps.

We'll miss you Deion ... but we also have a hunch Bill Belichick will find a way to win without you. It's what he does.

Big Three Minus One?
In most drafts, Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander went as the first three picks. They were even being called "The Big Three" because we fantasy experts couldn't come up with anything clever.

But as we learned on Sesame Street, one of these things is not like the other.

Alexander is coming off leading the league in rushing and setting a record with 28 TDs in 2005. But over the offseason, he lost one of the best offensive linemen in the game in Steve Hutchinson, who was wooed by big bucks and purple uniforms to Minnesota, and then he lost an even better blocker in left guard Walter Jones for part of the game with an injured ankle. The results? Fifty-one yards rushing on 19 carries and two catches for a single yard ... and a lost fumble.

As a writer, I have so many words available to me, but none are quite as appropriate as "ewwwww."

Detroit's got a new defensive scheme and it looked good yesterday, a truly impressive sign according to my colleague at www.TalentedMrRoto.com , Zach Messler, who pointed out most defenses start slow under a new system. But really, I worry about the "post-Super-Bowl-Loss" Curse that has befallen many of the previous runners-up. Keep an eye on Jones' injury. If he's going to miss games, downgrade Alexander from top 3 to top 10 ... but if someone in your league is panicking enough to already write him off… make an offer.

It's My Way or the Galloway
In just about every format, Joey Galloway was a top 10 WR in 2005, so I admit, I was taking a risk suggesting you bench him week one, especially considering he just missed notching 100 yards in last year's opener.

He could've made me look wicked stupid. Instead, Galloway didn't catch a single one of the three balls thrown to him. Granted, it was a train wreck in general for the Buccaneers and QB Chris Simms spent more time on the turf than Sea Biscuit. But still, when a team is getting blown out and their top receiver only sees three balls all day ... that's not a good sign. I'd shop him and mention that in 2005, he had zero catches twice. He followed one 0-fer up with two TDs the next week, and the other time he had seven catches for 138 yards.

It's flimsy logic at best, but you don't have to mention that to your trade partner.

Oh Henry!
And the answer to the question, "Which player will likely be picked off the most waiver wires this week?", will be Travis Henry after he picked up two TDs and a two point conversion. Thing is, Henry only managed 22 yards on 9 carries, and his days as the goal-line back may disappear when the bruising rookie LenDale White is healthy.

So while he's not a bad pick up if you've got a wide open spot in your lineup ... I wouldn't expect him to be a savior ... or even a starter. Truthfully, I don't expect Tennessee to score enough this year for any back to top 6 TDs.

Feeling Green
KC quarterback Trent Green got his bell rung in a big way in the first half of the game against the Bengals, effectively killing about half the teams I own since I grabbed Green in many leagues since he was sliding far too low on concerns about coach Herm Edwards's conservative play calling.

I don't know if Green will miss two weeks or a month ... and neither do you. Don't panic and make a bad trade or drop him unless he's your only QB and you're looking at Charlie Frye as your starter if you don't make a move. All reports say Green can't remember the hit that knocked him out ... which might just mean that once he's cleared to play, he'll do so without fear since you can't be afraid of something you don't remember.

Chad Pennington is likely still out there in many leagues and while I think his 300+ yard outing this past weekend is as good as it gets for him, he can tide you over until you know what's up with Green's noggin.

A MAN IS ONLY AS GOOD AS HIS NUMBERS

I'm stealing a page from my other employer, Matthew Berry, The Talented Mr. Roto himself, and grading my advice from last Friday.

I offered up players I thought you should start, and others I thought you should sit.

Before I tally how I did, I'm throwing out Steve Smith (even though telling you to sit him on Friday was the right move considering he didn't play) and I'm wiping away Trent Green since he got hurt early in the game.

For the rest, I ranked them in one of three categories. Guys I got right, guys I got wrong, and guys who fell in between.

That said, I had 12 players that I told you to start or bench that I nailed, including the advice to sit the catchless Joey Galloway, and start the largely shunned Chad Pennington.

I had six guys who didn't rise to the level I expected, but didn't kill you if you started them. This includes players like DeShaun Foster who caught 4 balls and managed 70 total yards, but didn't get in the end zone.

And finally, there were seven players where I missed like Mike Vanderjagt kicking an important field goal. I didn't know that Chris Brown would lose the goal line touches, costing him two short TDs, and who knew little Ellis Hobbs would shut down Lee Evans to the tune of two catches and 25 yards.

So I went 12-6-7 overall. Not awful.

However, if I can get twice as many stone-cold-right as I get dismally wrong, that's OK since I'm not offering up obvious advice like "start Larry Johnson and bench Ron Dayne."

And finally, my Hub Hunch on Friday was that both Denver Bells (Tatum and Mike) could rush for 100 yards against the Rams. Well, Tatum did it, and though Mike came up short with 88 total yards, he did find the end zone. So while my numbers were off, I was right about both being startable players last weekend. But now Mike B. has a hurt finger (broken or dislocated depending on reports) and while his coach says he'll play through it, believing Mike Shanahan can be hazardous to your fantasy health. Tatum is officially worth more than Mike until you see him on the field getting a lot of touches.

HEY BABY, COME HERE OFTEN?

A classic pick-up line for a few players you may want to pick up in your league.

I've seen Niners WR Antonio Bryant on a few waiver wires and unless your league is ultra shallow, he shouldn't be. The Niners will pass a lot because they'll be down a lot and he's the unquestioned No. 1. He topped 100 yards with just 4 catches.

Likewise, Jerricho Cotchery had 10 balls thrown his way and caught six of them. Won't happen every week ... but Pennington is an accurate passer when his arm is actually attached to the rest of his body by a healthy shoulder, and with no running game to speak of, Laveranues Coles should be getting double-teamed a lot. He's worth an end-of-the-bench spot.

Brandon Jacobs got three carries in the red zone for the Giants and scored one TD. We know Giants HC Tom Coughlin isn't going to give most of the goal line touches to Tiki Barber and so in leagues where players only score by reaching the endz one, or at least in leagues where yardage rewards are minimized, Jacobs is most certainly rosterable.

And just in case, for some reason, Laurence Maroney isn't owned in your league, he should be ... right now.

If you're in need at QB, I like Steve McNair to be startable for the next three weeks, considering he did fine against a tough Tampa Bay D, and now gets the Raiders, Browns and Chargers. Only poses any danger. Just don't expect 300 yards and 3 TDs because Baltimore looks like it's getting back to being a team that grinds you down on defense and offense.

Jon Kitna isn't bad either, though you're better off waiting a week as he'll get rolled by the Bears D this week before getting cushy gigs against the Packers, Rams and Vikes. Not a bad stretch, assuming he can still walk after his date with the Bears.

And if you need a tight end, make sure Kellen Winslow Jr. isn't available. At NFL.com, he's available in 18 percent of the leagues as of Monday night. That's just wrong.

Marques Colston is a name to know in New Orleans. He's listed as a WR on some sites, but Yahoo has him as a WR/TE. He got into the end zone this past week, and we know Drew Brees knows how to throw to his TE. Don't go dropping your starter for him… but he makes a low risk, high reward back-up.

All right, fantasy fans. That's all I've got for now. Feel free to e-mail me questions, comments, or bitter rants about how starting Chris Cooley on my advice cost you your game (I'm sorry ... last year the Vikings were tight end gold!).

The Hub is now closed.

In or out: Week 1

First things first. I need to wish a happy first birthday to the Patriots' starting middle-linebacker in 2027, Teddy Peters.

I know, using space to wish your son a happy birthday may not exactly have a place in a sports column… but if he actually does make the Pats' roster 21 years from now, I'll get credit for being the greatest evaluator of toddler talent in NFL history.

OK, if you're like me, the days before the NFL's first Sunday of the season feels like flying first-class into Vegas on Christmas Eve/The First Night of Hanukkah with your new girlfriend, Jessica Biel.

It's that exciting.

Of course, if you're like me… that also means your wife thinks you have brain damage for feeling so giddy about football, plus she is none too happy about the Jessica Biel part of the fantasy.

Anyway, it's Friday, and with the exception of any players on Pittsburgh and Miami, you've got a world of possibilities facing you. And yes, I totally intended to tell you to start Ronnie Brown despite playing a seriously tough rush D… but the column came out too late. (OK, maybe not… but I was absolutely going to advocate starting Heath Miller, so good for me I guess.)

And with 30 other teams yet to play, you need to decide who's going to be "In The Game" and who's going to be "On The Pine."

Sure, most fantasy experts are happy using the tried-and-true "Start/Bench" terminology, but we're still in honeymoon phase here at Boston.com, so I'm going the extra mile for you crazy kids.

Every Friday, I'll run down the big fantasy developments from the week, and then I'll give you a few guys at each position that I think will overperform or underperform. Now these suggestions are made in a vacuum, which means A) they may suck, and B) I don't know who else you have on your team.

So if I say that Buffalo's WR Lee Evans deserves to be In The Game (and I do think he's an "ITG" guy this weekend against a New England D whose biggest weakness is still at corner), and you've got Chad Johnson and Torry Holt as your starters… start your studs and leave Evans On The Pine. It's just common sense.

In fact, let's just get this out of the way. I'm never going to include Peyton Manning, Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Carson Palmer, Shaun Alexander, Holt, Johnson, Terrell Owens or Antonio Gates in my "In The Game" lists because they should always… ALWAYS be in the game. If you liked them enough to use a first or second round pick on them, it should take more than the Chicago defense to scare you away from them.

Until one of your truly elite players has three awful games in a row against mediocre teams, or gets hurt, you start them. You're Roger Clemens, those guys are your fastball, and you don't want to get beat by throwing your second, third, or fourth best pitch. Got it?

So let's run through the positions and see who's In the Game, and who belongs On the Pine.

QUARTERBACK

In The Game
I don't know how long Kurt Warner will hold on to the starting gig in Arizona. He could lose it because the team wants Matt Lienart to step up and take the job, or because the Zona offensive line is… well… offensive, and Kurt will take some hits. But he's a definite starter in most formats this weekend against San Francisco. No team gave up more fantasy points to opposing QBs than the Niners in '05.

If there's one week you can justify starting (or even rostering) Chad Pennington, it's this one, as he faces a rebuilding Titans squad that was the second most generous defense in '05 in terms of QB production.

And while it's true that Trent Green will have a hard time reaching previous years' numbers with new head coach Herm Edwards being such a fan of the run, this weekend he sees a Bengals D that relied very heavily on interceptions to stay alive last year. Green isn't careless with the ball, and he's good for a big day as his offense tries to keep up with Carson Palmer, et al.

On The Pine
As we all know, Romeo Crennel knows defense like Tom Cruise knows crazy. So when I see Drew Brees, in a new system, starting his season off against Cleveland, I know it could be a rough day for a guy coming off shoulder woes. My colleague at www.talentedmrroto.com, David Srinivasan, has Cleveland as a top 5 defense against passers. Srini knows these things, so sit Drew in case he struggles.

Are you one of the people who believes Brett Favre has one more good season in him? You must not be in my main league, where Favre went undrafted Wednesday night. I actually think he has a few big games left in that arm, and much better weapons around him than last year. But none of that matters when you're facing the Chicago D. Stay away from John Madden's little buddy this weekend.

RUNNING BACK

In The Game
You must, must, MUST start DeShaun Foster when the Panthers take on Atlanta on Sunday. Atlanta couldn't stop the run in 2005, DeShaun finished the year on fire, and with Foster's injury history, this is the one game this year where you know he's healthy going in.

Remember what I said about Warner? Well, San Francisco's also gave up the most points to opposing RBs, so even though the Cardinals' offensive line has been a question mark, I think you have to give Edgerrin James the nod this weekend and make him a top 4 back. If Arizona gets up early, it could be a heavy dose of the Edge.

I'd also take a shot with Chris Brown running the ball against the Jets. He may not get all the touches, but he's the starter and in a clash of two bad teams, there are usually points to be had. He's a great FLEX position start, or a fill in if you're a Clinton Portis owner who isn't sure if he'll play as of Sunday AM.

On The Pine
Wali Lundy has become a trendy pick since Houston's Domanick Davis went down for the year with knee issues. But head coach Gary Kubiak has said Vernand Morency will get a bunch of touches, and Ron Dayne looms at the goal line. Throw in an Eagles D that was better than average against the run last year and I say "take a seat, Wali."

Julius Jones went high in some drafts, but I'm still a believer that Bill Parcells isn't a huge fan of J.J. and has a little man-crush on Marion Barber III. Until I see Jones get twice as many touches as Barber, I'm staying away, especially against a stout Jacksonville D.

Last year, Detroit's Kevin Jones was the preseason "it" boy in terms of running backs on the verge of a breakthrough. Instead, he was more disappointing than taking your aunt to the senior prom. The arrival of Mike Martz as the Lions' offensive coordinator has raised his stock a bit, but you want no part of him against Seattle's underrated defense.

WIDE RECEIVER

In The Game
Rod Smith refuses to get older, and now he's got a real counterpart in Javon Walker lining up on the other side of the formation. The Rams will have to prove they can defend the pass after giving up the second highest fantasy point average in 2005. Until they do, starting Smith and Walker is a fine idea.

Down in Big D, there's plenty of buzz about T.O. playing in the game. But I'd be almost as happy starting Terry Glenn against a Jags D that was every bit as generous to receivers in 2005 as they were stingy to runners.

And if this is the one week where you can justify starting Pennington, then I suppose someone has to catch those passes, and that would be Laveranues Coles. He's certainly FLEX-worthy, or startable in leagues where you have to have 3 WRs. Again, I'm not making any friends in Tennessee, but they are not good this year… at all… in any way.

Oh, and like I said earlier, you could do worse than Lee Evans this weekend.

On The Pine
Between his injured hamstrings (yes, plural), his sore toe, and a matchup against Atlanta's blazing-fast D'Angelo Hall, I cannot recommend starting Steve Smith unless he's proclaimed 100 percent healthy by Sunday morning. Maybe he's going to go off. Maybe he's got 2 TDs in him. But getting a donut from one of the best WRs in the game because he didn't play, or tweaked a muscle on the first play from scrimmage, is not how I want to start the season.

Darrell Jackson missed the entire preseason with injuries, but he's supposedly finally healthy, just in time to play the Lions, who were actually among the best teams against the pass in 2005. Granted, Detroit has a new defensive scheme this year, but it seems unlikely they'll forget how to cover receivers all of a sudden. Again, unless he's by far the best WR on your team, I'd give him a week to get up to game speed, especially when he's still only "probable."

Finally, Joey Galloway is someone I'd sit if I had another top 20 receiver available to start. Tampa Bay is playing Baltimore, and it smacks of a defensive battle, plus Michael Clayton is healthy for the first time in a year, meaning Bucs QB Chris Simms won't have to look Galloway's way (am I stuttering?) as often.

TIGHT END

In The Game
Chris Cooley may be Mark Brunell's main target when the Skins take on the Vikings, and last year, it seemed like every tight end went nutso against the purple-pass-allowers.

And for all you homers… yes, start Ben Watson unless you have a guy named Gates ahead of him. Seriously, Tom Brady has taken the break-up with Deion Branch in stride and is rebounding with Watson.

On The Pine
Hasn't it seemed like Indy's Dallas Clark has been the "next big thing" forever? Well, if it's finally going to happen this year… it won't start this week. Apparently the Giants's defenders have learned a thing from having to deal with Jeremy Shockey at practice because they simply shut down opposing TEs in '05. Avoid Dallas… the player, not the team.

Boston's own Jermaine Wiggins has turned into quite a prolific pass catcher up in Minnesota. But he won't find the end zone against the Redskins, and he should find the bench if you have other semi-attractive options.

DEFENSE

In The Game
Defenses score by getting turnovers and specifically scoring TDs off of offensive miscues, which is why I'm a big believer in starting D's that are playing hapless offenses unless you have a truly dominant defensive squad on your roster. I'm all for swapping them out week to week if necessary.

Applying that little slice of logic, San Diego taking on a Raider team helmed by the inaccurate Aaron Brooks is a fine play, despite the Chargers D not being considered a top squad.

And in case you haven't figured out by now, Arizona's defense should do some good things against the Niners.

On The Pine
Anyone think the Pats will come out and play sloppy? Yeah… me neither. Don't start Buffalo this week. Also, don't bother with Kansas City or the New York Giants as they take on Indy and Cincy respectively.

KICKER
OK… I'm not going to tell you which kickers to start, because I think it's a little like telling you which "briefcase girl" to choose on "Deal or No Deal."

They're no real way of knowing, so go with one that kinda looks good to you.

If a kicker is going against a bad D and playing in a dome, start him.

If a kicker is going against a stout defense and playing outside in a hurricane, bench him.

See, even you can be an expert with guidelines like these.

THE HUB HUNCH

My final word each Friday will be a largely unsubstantiated hunch that I might play over the weekend.

Then, each Tuesday, I'll take a look back at it and see if I was full of wisdom or full of… well… you know.

This week's Hub Hunch has to do with Denver. Like I've mentioned before, Mike Bell has been named the starter, but it sure looks like he'll be sharing carries with Tatum Bell. But when they're facing a Rams team that was in the bottom three in terms of giving up points to running backs, I can't help putting it all together.

A famously great running team plus an infamously bad rushing defense equals the possibility that both Bells will ring in with 100 yards and a score this weekend. They're both startable this Sunday, folks.

Enjoy the games.

The Hub is now closed.

Holiday hapenings

It's Tuesday, and for the next 17 weeks, this will be the day when I sort through Sunday's stories and the assorted stats to try and bring you some fantasy insights in the wake of a full slate of NFL action.

But not today. That's because the fourth and final preseason weekend in the NFL ranks right up there with Jessica Simpson's thoughts on the Middle East and the entire "Ernest Goes to ______" sub-genre of films in terms of utter irrelevance. The scores don't matter. The players who had good weeks don't matter. The plays that were called don't matter at all. In fact, they "anti-matter" for you Star Trek fans.

Now that's not to say nothing of relevance happened over this laborious holiday weekend. There were stories of note and developments you should follow ... just none in the box scores. So here's the Fantasy Hub-Bub.

Ben Roethlisberger proved he likes surgery so much, he had another one that none of us were expecting (an emergency appendectomy) and will miss week one… or more. Lots of fans and fantasy experts were thinking that with Jerome Bettis gone, removing the team's Plan A, B, and C at the goal line, this was the year Big Ben was going to have the shackles taken off his play-book and he'd make a Tom Brady-esque leap in terms of his fantasy value catching up to his real world value.

Not gonna happen this year, kids. The Berger's recent mojo all smacks of the kinds of misfortune that befalls Super Bowl winners during their classic "down year" after the "big year." Hines Ward isn't quite right yet, and Ben's favorite No. 2 receiver, Antwaan Randle El, is gone, and every team is gunning for the defending champs. (Something we Pats fans know quite a bit about.)

Speaking of the Pats, Deion Branch is still really mad and former Raider Doug Gabriel is your current No. 1 WR. That makes him worth a flier at the end of your draft assuming Branch is done playing for the fans in Foxborough (an outcome that seems more and more likely). Just remember that a healthy Ben Watson may catch more balls than any wideout on the team this year, so even if Branch and the team mend fences and sing Kumbaya, remember that no Patriot WR is a must-start in your league.

And last week, I mentioned the rumors that Houston's Domanick Davis was going on the IR. Well, it happened, but new Texans head coach Gary Kubiak decided to further muddy the waters for the Fantasy Fan by importing Denver cast-off Ron Dayne to compete with Wali Lundy and Vernand Morency for playing time at tailback. Everything I've read, heard and assumed still has Lundy getting the most touches. But if Kubiak hands the great Dayne (and I mean "great" in size, not in production) the goal line touches, it'll hurt everyone's ability to score enough to justify a starting spot. In short, we won't know until the first game is in the books how this time share may play out, so draft with caution.

Speaking of the draft, I got a few draft-related e-mails since Friday, and figured I'd bust out an impromptu mailbag.

Reader Wayne wrote in with a philosophical question:

I've always played in leagues that only award 4 points for passing touchdowns as opposed to 6 for rushing and receiving scores. For years I've read about the importance of getting good running backs early and I have translated that advice into great success. The best QBs during any given season will only score well enough to be as good as second-tier running backs using this scoring system. However, there are always players who take Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, et. al., in the first two rounds. Is the the 4 point passing touchdown considered a non-standard scoring style, or are people just ignorant?

Love getting these e-mails because any fantasy player who's ready to accept the idea that his competition may be "ignorant" is probably also ready to dominate his league. Here's what I wrote back.

The fact is, for years, the 4 points for TD was standard and for true diehards, and I still think it is.

But because so many numbskull newbies jumped on board and started grabbing QBs in the first rounds, assuming that fantasy was like reality, where the QB is king, I think many sites started "catering" to that crowd and making more standard leagues where it's 6 points for every TD. NFL.com does it in it's free leagues... but then again, ironically, the NFL's fantasy game isn't really geared for the true player.

The thing to remember, even in leagues that award 6 points for passing TDs, is that it's a question of value. If Peyton Manning throws 10 more TDs than the No. 10 QB in the league, he scores 60 extra points instead of 40, meaning about 4 points a game more than the No. 10 QB instead of 2.5 points a game.

But the difference between Shaun Alexander and the No. 10 RB is likely much greater, and since you have to start two RBs in most leagues, it's much easier to survive with two top 12 RBs and the No. 10 QB, rather than the No. 1 QB and no RBs in the top 10.

In leagues in which owners start only one quarterback, I have yet to see a season where you cannot dominate by grabbing the best backs while others load up early on QBs. Trent Green or Daunte Culpepper will have you covered most weeks if you're starting LaDainian Tomlinson and Steven Jackson as your two backs. But if you're playing running-back-roulette each week, praying for your guys to get good match-ups and plenty of touches, Peyton Manning can only do so much for you.

Another reader, Chris, wrote in with a preseason situation that I'm sure plenty of you are facing. He writes:

Hi Shawn - I'm glad to see that Boston.com is finally stepping up and making my work-week even less productive with a fantasy football column. Excellent! My question for you is this: like me, there are probably some people out there who are involved in the dreaded "Auto Draft" league, where a computer makes all the selections based on player rankings. Do you have any helpful tidbits for this process so I don't end up with Chad Pennington as my starting QB?

I'm not even sure Eric Mangini is happy about ending up with Pennington as his signal-caller, so I can certainly understand Chris's worries. I wrote back with the best advice I can offer any of you:

Autopick drafts can be a hassle, but they also can earn you fantasy gold because you, by virtue of writing in to me, have already shown you're willing to do more than the bare minimum.

Many owners in autopick drafts rank their top 100 players, at most, and that's it. Some barely even rank their top 30, or worse, just use the website's pre-rankings. These are the people who end up with Domanick Davis and his ruined knees on their team in the third round.

But not you, Chris. You're going to take how many teams are in your league, and use that number as a multiplier to decide how many players form each position you'll rank. 10 teams? You want to rank at least your top 50 RBs, your top 30 QBs, your top 50 WRs and your two 20 TEs.

Then, you're going to make sure you don't have any player who isn't an RB or Peyton Manning in your top 20, and then you're going to add more RBs, Carson Palmer, and Antonio Gates to round out your top 30... and then, you can start plugging in WRs, other QBs and any RBs you still like in the next 20 picks. After 50 picks, just use your rankings to put together a rough semblance of what you think is value.

But here's the biggest thing.

DO NOT RANK ANY KICKERS OR DEFENSES AT ALL UNTIL YOU'VE RANKED ENOUGH PLAYERS TO FILL JUST ABOUT YOUR ENTIRE ROSTER.

This is the key. Some of the other owners will go with the pre-set rankings and end up with Chicago's D or Neil Rackers. Whatever. The difference between the best D and the No. 12 D, or the best kicker and the No. 12 kicker is about 2 points a game. But if you load up on viable RBs and QBs and walk out of the draft with only one K and one D, but a ton of starters at those power positions, you can trade your way to fill any holes, and you'll be withholding all those good players from your fellow competitors.

Just a few notes to back up what I wrote to Chris. Last year, Rackers and Jay Feely were easily the two highest-scoring kickers in the NFL in terms of fantasy points. In standard Yahoo scoring leagues, they scored 165 and 162 points respectively. The No. 11 kicker, Josh Brown, managed 124 points, or about 2.5 points per game less than these two elite field-goal-istas. Oh, and did I mention that neither Rackers nor Feely was drafted in many leagues last year as they too were considered "middle-of-the-pack" kickers? Go with the hot hand ... er ... toe once the season gets going. Don't waste a pick.

And as for defenses, again, in Yahoo leagues, we were looking at about a 3 point per game difference between the top D (Chicago) and the 11th (Cincinnati). The third best defense was Indianapolis, which had been undraftable for years. The Colts D scored almost a third of their fantasy points in three big weeks (weeks 1, 5 and 13) against three awful awfenses ... er ... offenses (San Francisco, Baltimore and Tennessee.)

The moral? You can get away with just picking up a decent defense playing an awful offense each week. Grab whomever's going against the Jets, Titans, Browns, Texans or Bills this year and you should be safe.

OK, and now for one non-fantasy football item.

I have no doubt that Sports Illustrated's Peter King has deeper football knowledge and access to more players and coaches than just about any reporter around. But the man loses some serious credibility when he goes out of his way to say something nice about every team. It's like he plays for the Cleveland Brown-nosers.

Case in point. In this past week's SI, Peter King is given an entire centerfold for his team-by-team analysis (and let's all thank the editors of SI for not giving him another kind of centerfold, shall we?). In it, he looks at every team's schedule, and sorta picks their records by virtue of showing which games they might win or lose, and which ones are locks. The thing is, at the top of each team's little section, he lists the team's "best case scenario" where he gives them credit for a win for any game they might win. That means that when the woeful Browns play the woeful Jets in week 8, he tallies them both as winners when calculating his best-case scenario ... even though I'm pretty sure that's impossible by the laws of football and physics. As a result, he's able to list every team as being 8-8 or better at the end of the season if "everything goes right."

It's a brilliant piece of P.R. for P.K., since no matter which team jumps out of nowhere to make the playoffs this year, he'll be able to say he saw it coming. And when a team flounders, he'll claim, "I was just showing what they could possibly do… I never said I actually claimed the Packers would go 9-7."

And besides, he's just earned himself even more good will and access to these teams since he's on record saying he thinks every one of them could have a winning record.

Now I admit, I am the