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Backing Brady
I wanna say, I'm touched.
Despite the fact that the Fantasy Hub was buried under $103 million worth of Matsuzaka Mania at Boston.com (and yes, I'm as excited as anyone that my old Johnny Damon home jersey can be worn again), avid readers of "the Hub" still were able to find this week's column, read it, and write in with questions.
Of course, maybe that just proves that fantasy owners who are still in the playoff hunt can't be distracted aby nything that doesn't involve pigskin, but still, I'm flattered.
And apparently, someone else out there was paying attention since I got a call from a producer at ESPN Radio (890 AM/1400 AM) and I will be appearing (at least vocally) on the Russ Francis Show this Saturday at 9:05 a.m. I'll be talking fantasy playoffs and Patriots with my old pal Russ ... and by "old pal" I really mean, "the guy I've never met but grew up idolizing until I realized that no high school football team was going to roster a 5-foot-1, 118-pound tight end with Geisha-sized hands."
Anyway, I hope you'll tune in or head to the site (use the link above) and listen online. It could be incredibly informative, or at worst, you'll come to realize you enjoy my fantasy musings better in print, when there's no nasal voice attached to them.
Either way.
FANTASY HUB BUB
Usually, I hit a bunch of topics, like the fact that Chester Taylor was listed as doubtful, but has been upgraded to questionable, meaning that you'll likely have to wait until Sunday noontime to know whether you should be starting him or Artose Pinner against the porous Jets D.
I might also dabble in the news that Jake Delhomme looks like he may sit again, even though you want no part of him or Chris Weinke against the Steelers. There should be picks-a-plenty.
The rumor being floated by ESPN's John Clayton that Randy Moss may be done for the season would be a topic of discussion ... if it weren't for the fact that he's clearly been "done" for several weeks, even when he was on the field.
And of course, I'd discuss the fact that owners who bought an injured Ronnie Brown at their trade deadline thinking he'd be back in time to be a strong play in the playoffs are currently cursing themselves as the star back has been ruled out for this weekend's tilt against the semi-soft Bills D.
But dang it, as I mentioned above, I spent a good portion of the week answering e-mails from readers who had real conundrums, and in spirit of thinking globally and acting locally, I'm willing to recycle those e-mails, and the responses, because I'm sure some of you are asking the same questions in private.
Regular reader, Adam, asks:
What do you think about playing Vince Young instead of Tom Brady this week? Brady has been terrible lately. Young has been great. But the Pats are playing Houston and, after all, we are talking about Tom Brady here. Somehow it doesn't seem right to sit him and play a rookie! Also, Sammy Morris or Thomas Jones? Jones has been good to me, but I'm leaning towards Morris since it looks like Ronnie Brown is still out and Buffalo has trouble stopping the run.
Clearly, like Janet Jackson circa 1986, Adam's not afraid to ask "What Have You Done For Me Lately?" I understand it's hard to sit the hot hand, or start the cool hand, but here's where I netted out on the question:
I think Vince is a very nice player, but he's playing Jacksonville this week and Brady's playing the Texans. Unless you have psychic ability or an inside source telling you Belichick intends to run the ball 45 times, you start Brady.
On the Sammy Morris front... I'm not a huge believer, but his matchup is so much better than Thomas Jones... and TJ got a little dinged up in Monday Night's game. I think Morris has the bigger upside for this week.
Continuing a theme, I got the following from reader Will:
All my roster positions are set, except for QB. I have Tom Brady, Jeff Garcia, and Tony Romo. (I picked them up as soon as they were named starters). Anyway, it is standard Yahoo scoring, 1 pt/50 yards, 6 pts/touchdown. All three have good matchups and all three should post some points. However, Romo and Brady have been struggling lately, and Garcia is playing mistake free football. Who should I start?
Another Brady bailer. Amazing what a 78-yard day will do. But then again, Will does have arguably the second-hottest QB in the fantasy landscape on his quad. I got back to him:
I think the QB question comes down to Brady, the struggling star, and Garcia, the Cinderella story. Both have very nice matchups, but I think the Giants are bouncing back a little while Houston has taken the pipe.
I'll be starting Brady over Rex Grossman and Romo this week in my league. The only reason I'll change is if the weather at Foxborough looks nasty and yet is somehow much nicer down in New Jersey.
Weather.com says it'll be 54 degrees and cloudy, with only a 10 percent chance of rain. Again, I'm a Brady believer. If this team can't find a way to pass against the Texans, there is something rotten on Rt. 1 in Foxborough.
George writes in with a RB question that I'm sure many are facing:
Need your advice on RB2 this weekend--- Maurice Jones-Drew at Tennessee or Chester Taylor vs. the Jets (assuming he can play). I have been riding the Fred Taylor train up until this past weekend. Mo-Jo went off and now I'm reluctant to bench him. Plus, there are rumblings that Fragile Freddie has hurt his hammie. What do you think? Which way to go?
George, in discussing Fred Taylor, Chester Taylor, and Maurice Jones-Drew (by the way ... loving the Mo-Jo nickname gaining traction), is actually choosing between three RBs who are all on the injury report. The two Jaguar backs are probable, while Chester was upgraded from doubtful, but when George wrote in, none of that was for sure, so here was my initial response:
Your holidays came early with those two matchups this weekend. I'd start MoJo because of what you mentioned. Even if Chester plays, I bet he takes a few more plays off than usual to protect him, and if Fred T. is at all dinged up, Jones-Drew gets even more production.
If both play, both should be start-worthy ... but I'll take Drew as the healthier option right now.
I still think Chester's too much of a risk, even if he's slated to play on Sunday morning, to start him when there are other viable options on the roster. Of course, now it seems like Fred and Mo-Jo are both a little banged up, so choosing between those two playing in Tennessee, is the tough call to make.
The thing is, with both guys having similar injuries and getting similar touches, it's a tough call. As of Thursday, Taylor, the older back, is the one doing more at practice while Mo-Jo is the one limited. So right now, I'd lean a bit in Fred Taylor's direction, but if Drew is definitely active this week, he's just as strong a play, and certainly the hotter player. I truly think both have the potential to put together 100 total yards and a score this week with the way Jacksonville is playing.
And finally, on Thursday afternoon, one of the Hub's earliest e-mailers, Chris, had a couple of questions.
I have a QB controversy on my hands: I don't trust the QBs on my roster because they've all blown it a few times this season. So, I ask you -- Matt Leinart, Steve McNair or Rex Grossman? Also, do you start Javon Walker over Antonio Bryant?
Man ... nothing like getting to the playoffs and realizing your trio of QB options could go "Three Stooges" on you. Still, you gotta start someone, at least that's what I told Chris:
I'd lean on Leinart if I had to ... he's been one of the top 10 QBs over the last month or so, and as good as the Broncos D is, the fact that Arizona has two amazing WRs negates Champ Bailey just a little since Leinart will have a playmaker who isn't covered by him at all times.
Definitely Walker over Bryant ... better matchup, plus major rain and wind in Seattle on Thursday.
Chris' QB dilemma is regrettable, but it also reminds us that if you are a confident owner who's having a decent season, you should absolutely make a move or two in the middle of the season to set yourself up for the playoffs. Of course ... at mid-season, Grossman looked like a playoff stud, so it's easier said than done.
As for the WR question, as we saw last night, the Niners passing game was hit-and-miss, so while I don't know what Walker will do for sure, it's a good bet he'll top Bryant's two-catch, 16-yard performance.
Oh, and while we're talking about last night's game, my picks on Tuesday were pretty hit-and-miss too. Starting Frank Gore was dead on, and since Shaun Alexander managed a TD, he was worth starting as well. But I missed on benching Jeramy Stevens and starting Deion Branch, plus Alex Smith's TD scamper made it clear that he was startable.
Thanks to all the readers who checked in this week. I wish I could've printed more, but I know most of you read on Fridays for the start/bench advice, so I need to get to it.
As always, I'll avoid advice so obvious that John Madden might offer it. Starting Drew Brees officially falls into that category, and benching Reuben Droughns against the Ravens, is on the flip side of that coin.
QUARTERBACK
In The Game
Maybe you're a Creationist, or even believe in Intelligent Design, but still you'd have to admit the evolution of Jay Cutler is happening before our eyes. He has thrown two TDs in each of his starts, and his yardage and completion percentage went up as well. This week, against the Cards, expect his first "breakout" game -- 225+ yards and a pair of scores.
As indicated above, I'm pretending last week never happened and starting Tom Brady this week because honestly, this was one of the reasons you drafted him ... for this matchup against the Texans. It has "fantasy playoff victory" written all over it.
Oh, and even though I recommended starting Brady over him to a reader, I still think Jeff Garcia needs to be in the game for you too unless you are talking about Carson Palmer, Peyton Manning, Brady or Brees in his place.
I'm giving Jon Kitna some love as well. It's the Packers ... you know.
On The Pine
If there's a defense that's playing well enough to contain Vince Young right now, it's Jacksonville. And hey, Young plays the Jags this week. Weird, huh? Sit him.
I just don't think Philip Rivers can be counted on with another game against a decent D (the Chiefs this time) and a running game that makes the pass an afterthought so often.
The Eagles will blitz Eli Manning as If doing so could solve world hunger. He's been better lately, but this week I expect to see stronger play by the Giants' running game and lesser play from Eli.
RUNNING BACK
In The Game
For the second straight week ... Rudi ... Rudi ... Rudi (Johnson). Of course, I might actually start Sean Astin against the Colts' rush defense right now.
As mentioned above, Sammy Morris may not be the runner Ronnie Brown is, but he is the guy who should get 20 carries against the Bills. Start him with gusto.
And while I think very little of his overall ability right now, Jamal Lewis has gashed Cleveland in the past and with the Browns D a shambles, I think he's a dangerous man who will get into the end zone a few times.
On The Pine
Cedric Houston has been hot. Against the Vikings, he's extremely "not" ... in fact, I bet he only outgains Cedric the Entertainer by about 40 yards.
DeAngelo Williams or DeShaun Foster? I'll take "C: None of the Above" against the Steelers.
I don't know if you can really bench Willie Parker considering the fact he's a top 10 RB, but if you're one of the lucky-slash-smart owners who loaded up at RB and have two other elite options, go with them. Carolina's rush D is strong and Parker hasn't been the same guy away from home this year.
WIDE RECEIVER
In The Game
Call this one a hunch, but regardless of who starts at QB for the Panthers, there is no way Steve Smith gets ignored again this week. Starting him may be obvious, but I know how some owners panic during playoffs when a stud has a down week. Don't do anything silly. Start yer studs.
Last week, Marques Colston played and was mostly a decoy. This week, with Joe Horn out and the Redskins trying to defend him ... as long as he's on the field, he's in my lineup.
This one is risky, but I think if you're in a PPR league where lots of catches equals lots of points, Joe Jurevicius is an ideal WR3, even against the Ravens. Cleveland will be trailing, Derek Anderson (who starts in place of Charlie Frye again) loves J.J., and he will be trying to save alive by throwing intermediate routes to his most reliable target.
On The Pine
Take Joey Galloway's last name, and replace "Gallo" with "No." Joey No Way ... not against the Bears.
We saw Rex Grossman return to form a bit last week, and he may continue against Tampa Bay this week ... but you don't want to be starting Bernard Berrian because pat of Grossman's success was a realization that he was better of not going for broke too often, and Berrian is the deep threat. Less opportunity equals less production.
And I'm not starting any Jacksonville WR as long as they seem able to dominate by throwing as a last resort. Theoretically, even if David Garrard only throws for 150 yards, one of the WRs will be decent ... but I don't believe for a second that Matt Jones or Reggie Williams will break out in a way that makes you regret sitting them.
TIGHT END
In the Game
If Ben Watson is out, and it looks like he will be as far as we can tell from the Morse code coming out of Foxborough, then I'll take Daniel Graham (though Graham is questionable, too). Brady will find him if he plays.
If you're desperate, you can do a lot worse than Cleveland's Steve Heiden. New QB Derek Anderson looks for him at the goal line like Hugh Heffner looks for new "talent" getting off the bus in L.A.
On The Pine
After only seeing one pass thrown his way the last two weeks, it's time to put George Wrightster on a milk carton. Has anyone seen this Jacksonville tight end?
Remember when Owen Daniels was everyone's favorite mid-season TE pickup because he was catching balls and scoring TDs? Of course you do ... because it's easy to remember things that are in the past. Daniels' fantasy value is a memory, at least this week.
DEFENSE
In the Game
It's a special day in any fantasy fan's life when he gets to start the home team D against the Texans. Enjoy in New England.
Gotta start Miami's D against the Bills. It's playing as well as any defensive unit in the game right now.
On The Pine
Go ahead, start the Chiefs D against San Diego in San Diego ... If you're a fantasy masochist who enjoys collecting negative points from your defense.
Indy is slumping as an offense right now, so let's change the rule to "Never start a defense that's playing Drew Brees and the Saints." That means the Redskins D gets a big old splinter in their behind this week.
KICKER
Shmicker.
THE HUB HUNCH OF THE WEEK
I've seen a lot of sites and experts advising owners to bench Marc Bulger against the Raiders' withering pass D.
Here's the thing. The Raiders have given up big passing days to top shelf QBs on teams that were willing to pass often. Carson Palmer lit them up for 303 yards last week, and the Steelers, during Ben Roethlisberger's "throw 40 times a game" era, went for 271. Most of the Raiders' dominating outings against the pass came against teams with young QBs or run-oriented offenses. Well, Bulger will throw often, and he's got plenty of good receivers, and he can also throw to Steven Jackson out of the backfield.
Bulger managed a fine game against the Bears last week as well, so I'd say that if you've counted on him so far, you can do it again this weekend.
OK ... this sucker is getting long.
Remember, there is a Saturday game this week as well, so get your lineup in on time. No one wants to get bounced from the playoffs because the woke up Sunday morning and realized they'd already missed the chance to start Terrell Owens.
The Hub is now closed.
