« The respect factor | Main | The rest of the story »
Unlikely outcomes
So what did Santa leave under your fantasy football tree?
Did you get a gigantic, gift-wrapped playoff victory courtesy of Vince Young's three total TDs?
Or were you the recipient of a lump of coal, a la Willie Parker's negative point total in many leagues thanks to less than 30 total yards and a fumble lost?
In a week when most leagues crowned their champs, many NFL teams leaned on unlikely heroes, thereby short-circuiting the best-laid plans of fantasy owners and columnists alike. I mean, when Leon Washington and Michael Pittman are viable and valuable fantasy starters and Tiki Barber and Chester Taylor aren't, victory is about fate more than fantasy.
However, there was at least one package that St. Nick delivered to the right address as the Patriots got the victory in Jacksonville, clinching the AFC East title, although they'll have to put a first-round-bye in their "Dear Santa" list for 2007 since it cannot happen this year.
Still, as the fantasy season comes to an end, it's nice to know that in New England, at least, there will still be plenty of reasons to watch the NFL for the next few weeks. In short, it's the end of the fantasy… and the beginning of the most "real" part of the season.
MAKING THE GRADE
In a week with some statistical anomalies, including only one QB throwing for over 300 yards and only six WRs topping 100 yards receiving, I tried to grade myself on my picks by looking at how a player did compared to others at their position this week. For example, I called my benching of Heath Miller a loss since he scored a TD, even though the 12-yard catch was his only one of the game. Since there were only eight TEs who scored this week, and more than half of them were free agents in every league I'm in, that makes Miller a "starter" this week, and a bad call by me.
Likewise, Jay Cutler, who I said to start, is a correct call, despite the fact that he threw for just 179 yards with two TDs and a pick. According to Yahoo standard scoring, he was the No. 7 QB for the week, just showing you how weak the week was.
So with that clarification, here's how the numbers for week 16 broke down.
Nineteen of the players I stuck in your stocking last week were on the "nice" list. My call on Marc Bulger's bounce back was truly a gift (4 TDs and 388 yards) to anyone who started him. So too was the Chiefs D, which was positively Grinchy to the Raiders. Tuesday's call to sit Ahman Green was in the giving spirit, as was my reminder to save the receipt on Owen Daniels, who didn't catch a ball. I even hung a big shiny star upon the highest bow with my Hub Hunch as Travis Henry topped 100 rushing yards against his old pals in Buffalo.
Meanwhile, four players only went halfway on the holidays. Rex Grossman didn't have a breakout game, but nor did he have a breakdown game. He was basically a perfectly average fantasy starter, so he likely didn't win or lose the game for you. And believe it or not, three of the TEs I picked to either sit or start ended up doing very little, but in a week where most TEs did nothing, that made them average.
And lastly, I found 10 players on my naughty list. Jon Kitna officially hates me more than I hate him considering he broke out of a month-long funk to hang 283 yards and 3 TDs on the Bears D. No one in the world started him. Not even Mrs. Kitna. But still, I was wrong about him. I doubled up in the loss column by simultaneously predicting Ron Dayne would have trouble against the Colts D, especially when I said Indy would get up early, forcing the Texans to throw. Instead, Dayne scored twice before most fans even got to the stadium and the Horseshoe Heads basically proved that last week's shellacking of Cincy was a blip on the radar of a team in turmoil. On the fantasy front, I'm sorry… and I'm sorry. Lastly, I'm sorry about that Cedric Benson start recommendation. Thomas Jones ended up playing and then the Bears gave all the goal line carries to Adrian Peterson. Man… I'd be much better at this stuff if NFL head coaches were, you know… honest about what they intended to do.
A 19-4-10 record for the last "normal" week of the year is solid, but I know many of you are still playing Week 17, which makes me sad, despite the fact it means I get paid to write one more week's worth of columns. More on that later.
NEW SCORING CATEGORIES
Dropping Complaints: -5 pts -- In a move that's about as shocking as the daily sunrise or a Pamela Anderson divorce, Terrell Owens complained about not being involved in the Cowboy offense enough, despite leading the NFL (unofficially) in dropped passes this year. He had one truly egregious drop in Monday's loss to the Eagles, and NBC showed footage of warm-ups during which T.O. was clearly unable to catch the ball cleanly with his bruised, broken, and strained fingers. A wide receiver with bum hands complaining that he isn't catching enough balls is like a taxi driver with no rear seat complaining he doesn't get enough fares. Ah well, at least we get to watch this soap opera extend into the postseason as the Cowboys have already backed their way into the playoffs thanks to an awful NFC where at least one 8-8 team will win a wild card slot.
Walk Out Win: 100 pts -- According to the Chicago Sun Times, about 100 Detroit Lions fans walked out of the game against the Bears on Sunday as a protest to how bad the team has been under GM Matt Millen. The thing is, the Lions actually almost won that game. I'm telling you, if they'd gotten 10,000 protesters instead of a measly 100, the Lions would've brought home the victory. Of course, that just shows you how bad things are going in the Motor City. They can't even put up big numbers in disgust.
FANTASY HUB BUB
Not So Sweet Seventeen
If you've been reading the Hub for a while, you know that I deeply disapprove of leagues that use Week 17 to decide their championship.
"Why," you ask?
In 2006, the NFL's ideal of parity has come to fruition in a big way. Only the Chicago Bears have an unassailable overall record that makes Week 17 truly irrelevant.
Still, there are several other teams that have little or no reason to try their hardest and risk injury this week. The Saints have the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye wrapped up regardless of what happens and must decide whether beating Carolina and knocking them out of the playoff hunt is worth putting their stars out there for 60 minutes.
The Seahawks have the NFC West wrapped up and cannot do better or worse than the No. 4 seed. So how hard are they trying against a very bad Tampa Bay team?
San Diego needs only a win over Arizona at home to clinch home field advantage for the playoffs. They could be up by 21 by the half and start resting their stars.
The Patriots can be the No. 3 seed at best, the No. 4 seed at worst, and they're playing a Titans team that needs a win and some help to get into the playoffs. After the beating Tom Brady took on Sunday (and yes, I thought he had a broken shoulder after being speared in the second half), is Bill Belichick going to throw him out there all game long against a team playing for it's playoff life, or is he going to get some real game experience for Matt Cassel?
It's too early in the week to know the answers to these questions, but I can tell you one thing. Any league where the owner of LaDanian Tomlinson, Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, Shaun Alexander, Matt Hasselbeck, the Bears D, Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister, Marques Colston, and Tom Brady all have to consider benching those guys because of fear that they may not play meaningful minutes is a league that has spent 16 weeks wasting everyone's time.
Define Perfection
It's easy to look down your league's stat sheets and see who the highest scoring player at each position is and say "those guys would be the perfect fantasy team." But the truth is that many of Drew Brees's owners never even got to their title games because of his Week 15 stinker while Larry Johnson's Week 15 mediocrity also probably left a few owners coming up short.
So here is the perfect fantasy roster in terms of guys who would've played well enough to get you into the playoffs, and then have produced enough to get you the crown. I'm also trying to be the slightest bit realistic. There's no way you had LT and LJ in most leagues, so this list reflects that reality.
QB: Peyton Manning He's actually been better in the playoffs than he was most of the season.
RB 1: Steven Jackson Like I said, I'm being realistic and I doubt you could have Manning and LT, plus S-Jax has been almost as good as LT, and was better this past week by a wide margin.
RB 2: Frank Gore He's had either 150 total yards and a score or two scores in each of the last three weeks and was solid all season.
WR 1: Marvin Harrison And to think, he didn't even have a TD until Week 5.
WR 2: Donald Driver Never anyone's first choice ... except Brett Favre.
WR 3: Lee Evans A TD a week for the last three weeks, and will top 1,200 yards for the season with J.P. Losman as his QB. That's impressive.
TE: Todd Heap In a year where no TE truly dominated, Heap's consistent production made him top of the ... no, sorry, even I cannot make that joke.
K: Robbie Gould He's a kicker, he was the highest scorer at the position, and he's been good the last three weeks. You all know how I feel about kickers.
DEF: Baltimore Chicago has been a non-factor the last two weeks, while Baltimore was No. 2 for most of the season and has been even better recently.
Help Me-Mail
Regular reader Tyler is clearly in one of those leagues I disparaged a few paragraphs ago as he wrote me the following before this week's games were even over.
First, I don't know if I should play Steve McNair vs. Buffalo or Jeff Garcia vs. Atlanta. I'm somewhat worried that Baltimore will sit some of their starters and possibly sit McNair after halftime. Next, I don't know whether to play Ladell Betts vs. Giants or Larry Johnson vs. Jaguars. I am definitely starting Jones-Drew, but I am worried that the weak Chiefs line won't be able to block Stroud and Henderson; plus Betts is on fire.
Man ... them's some tough questions for a guy who's already packing up his tent. I'd start Garcia for sure since the Eagles are playing inspired football and a win gives them the division. They aren't sitting anyone under any circumstances, and Atlanta's D has been spotty at best. I doubt the Ravens will sit anyone since a win guarantees them a bye, but still, I like Garcia better.
At RB, I think it's too early to make the call until you know whether Fred Taylor is playing. If he is, you go with LJ and Betts. If MoJo is going to get all the carries again, though, then I'd consider starting him over LJ. Just remember, Johnson topped 100 yards against the Ravens and they know they have to win to have any chance at the playoffs, so they are going to play to their strengths, even against the Jags. LJ has averaged 26 carries a game. It's hard to sit that ... ever.
"What's a Nice Girl Like You Doing in a Place Like This?"
You have to be desperate to be trying that line, and you have to be desperate to be looking for players to pick up in a league that still plays Week 17.
I think you can grab Adrian Peterson, as the Bears have nothing to play for except to make sure the Packers don't have a shot at the playoffs. If he got the goal line looks last week, I don't see why he wouldn't again this week. You could also grab Brian Griese in case Lovie Smith sits Grossman ... though I don't see that happening until the second half at the earliest.
Maurice Morris likely gets more than a few carries this week as Shaun Alexander's foot gets a rest going into the playoffs. I'd expect to see Alexander running a little in the first half just to keep him from getting rusty, but that's it.
At WR, Denver's Brandon Marshall is technically the No. 3 WR, but he's playing better than Rod Smith and seems to have a connection with Jay Cutler. With Denver hosting the 49ers and owning their own fate, I could see a coming out party for Marshall.
Early Start/Bench
No need this week as there's no Thursday game. There's also no Monday game. Yet another reason why this isn't a real week for fantasy football.
Programming Note
Friday's Fantasy Hub will be the last fantasy football article of the season for me. It's been my honor and pleasure to check in with you twice a week for the last four months. It's been great hearing from so many of you via e-mail, even if it's just to bust on me for sitting someone who ended up finding the end-zone four times.
Even though the column won't be updated in the coming months, feel free to contact me via e-mail with any fantasy questions you have and remember ... baseball drafts will be starting in just a couple of months.
Until Friday, the Hub is now closed.
