Derby drama deepens
One of the great things about the Kentucky Derby is that it is much more than a two-minute race on the first Saturday in May. It is a week of tales and hopes and expectations and emerging heroes, both human and equine.
This year is no exception, now only eight days from the 132d running and the buildup is getting intense, highlighted by daily news that can change the focus of the race.
Where to begin?
Start with First Samurai, who -- like another early Derby favorite, Stevie Wonderboy -- was pulled out of the Derby mix. An early key came a few weeks ago when First Samurai's jockey, Edgar Prado, switched to Strong Contender, who probably isn't one, but is in a better position than First Samurai.
The pedigrees at the top remain the same, with Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, and Barbaro drawing the role of favorites. But that could change each day next week as the Derby crowd arrives in Louisville.
The question of speed -- early speed -- is again a factor. Lawyer Ron, Brother Derek, Barbaro, Sinister Minister, and Sweetnorthernsaint have shown inclinations to grab the early lead and play a game of catch-me-if-you-can. Does that mean all the speed will burn itself out, setting up for closers such as Bob and John and perhaps Point Determined? We'll find out.
Then we come to the subplot: How Brother Derek's trainer Dan Hendricks has dealt with a motorcycle accident that left him paralyzed from the waist down.
And what about Barbaro's trainer, Michael Matz, a former Olympic equestrian and genuine hero after surviving a plane crash in Sioux City, Iowa, in 1989, and rescuing two children from the wreckage?
Think picking the favorite is easy? Not even insiders have a clue thus far. Hendricks, on a national conference call, said it was a toss-up in his mind, as well. ''I agree I should be one of the favorites," said Hendricks, who hopes Brother Derek continues in that role through the Derby. ''But it's hard to separate Barbaro, Lawyer Ron, and myself. That will be up to the betting public to decide." Early lines from The Daily Racing Form have already been established with Brother Derek the 7-2 favorite, followed by Lawyer Ron at 5-1, Barbaro at 6-1, and Sweetnorthernsaint at 10-1.
More questions? No problem. Will this year signal a return to the top spot by three-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert, who has three horses in next week's race (Wood Memorial winner Bob and John, Blue Grass winner Sinister Minister, and San Anita Derby runner-up Point Determined)? Baffert's last Derby victory was in 2002 with War Emblem.
The most interesting facet of this Derby revolves around the early speed and how it will be used by every horse from Brother Derek to Sweetnorthernsaint, who have different styles, but showed winning form in the Santa Anita Handicap and the Illinois Derby, respectively.
Watch for the early leaders and how they handle it as they make their first turn. Then there is the question of how Brother Derek, who has looked so strong in California, will adjust to life in Kentucky.
Is the Derby truly set up for a closer and will it be a horse that comes out of nowhere, such as Giacomo (50-1), who zoomed past Closing Argument (71-1) to win a year ago, beating favorites Afleet Alex and Bellamy Road?
Giacomo hasn't won since the Derby, and Afleet Alex went on to win the Preakness and the Belmont.
Maybe a horse that comes out of the Arkansas Derby, such as Smarty Jones in 2004, can win in Kentucky. Maybe that horse will be Lawyer Ron, a homebred from Kentucky.
Derby week begins Monday, but has been steadily building for the past two weeks as horses and trainers and the bluebloods of horse racing get ready for the Run for the Roses.
The Derby seems to get bigger each year -- hitting 156,435 in attendance last year, which was only topped by the 163,628 in 1974.
But Derby week is getting so huge
On and on it goes as the countdown for the Derby continues.
