Derby contenders tightly bunched
Most of the prep race work has been done. We already have a list of contenders, ranging from Nobiz Like Shobiz to Scat Daddy to Street Sense to a long shot with a history such as Tiago. We are three weeks from the Kentucky Derby and the final major prep races -- the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park -- will be run tomorrow.
After that, it will be positioning and posturing as horse racing starts its quest to find its first Triple Crown winner in 29 years.
No one has jumped out of the pack yet, but the Triple Crown quest, like the Derby this year, may be a race for closers, horses that pick up momentum each week.
Last year, Barbaro came out of Florida and swooshed through the Derby after a long layoff and became an instant legend with his Derby win and subsequent breakdown in the Preakness.
This year has produced no compelling story line -- yet.
Street Sense is the flavor of the week as he prepares for the Derby with a solid 2-year-old season behind him and a victory in last month's Tampa Bay Derby. He faces only six others in the Blue Grass, with Great Hunter regarded as his main competition. The horses met in the Breeders' Futurity last fall with Great Hunter emerging as the winner.
The stakes are higher now, the sense of urgency greater, and the rewards in three weeks are much, much bigger. Street Sense's trainer, Carl Nafzger, says his horse is much different from last fall. "He just grew up," said Nafzger. "All of a sudden he was a man. He was no longer a young kid."
A win tomorrow will probably solidify Street Sense as the morning-line Derby favorite, but there is no sense that we have a super horse or a Triple Crown winner in the making.
Last year, Barbaro created a buzz coming out of Florida with a string of impressive performances, then went off the charts with his romp in the Derby.
But what do we have this season? Where will the Derby winner come from? Of local interest could be Chelokee, who is not even a certain Derby starter. The Massachusetts-based Centennial Farm horse is trained by Michael Matz, who also trained Barbaro, but Chelokee does not have enough earnings to qualify for the field, which is limited to 20 based on earnings in graded stakes races. The Derby field is expected to change in the next few days as trainers decide whether to run their horses or drop out. Chelokee, who has shown Triple Crown potential during the winter, including a third in the Florida Derby, will run in the Preakness if he does not make the Derby field.
And that would create an interesting story line for Matz, who would be returning to the Preakness a year after Barbaro's tragic injury.
It is all in front us. Street Sense, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Scat Daddy (perhaps trainer Todd Pletcher's best bet to snap his 0-for-21 record in Triple Crown races ).
And then there would be the ultimate underdog story in Tiago, who was not on anybody's Derby contender list until he won the Santa Anita Derby last week. What's the hook here? Tiago is the half-brother of Kentucky Derby long shot winner Giacomo.
Mark Blaudschun can be reached at blaudschun@globe.com. 