Guesswork is running wild

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- The presence of last year's fallen champion, Barbaro, will be felt. Queen Elizabeth II will be part of the throng that -- if the weather remains dry -- could top 150,000, most of whom will gladly say they have the "horse right here" for today's 133d running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

But which horse is it? As post time approaches (scheduled for 6:04 p.m.), there seems to be even less certainty about who will pick up the crown Barbaro wore so briefly before tragedy struck him in the Preakness.

The morning-line favorite is Curlin, who was unraced as a 2-year-old but has breezed through three races (all victories) as a 3-year-old by an astonishing margin of more than 28 lengths.

Curlin's marquee victory was in last month's Arkansas Derby against a pedestrian field. There is a sense among many observers that trainer Steve Asmussen's horse has yet to be truly challenged and a 20-horse charge over the Derby's 1 1/4 miles will provide the ultimate test. Add Curlin's tough No. 2 post and there's more doubt.

"The level of anticipation, the buildup, the overanalyzing all comes into play in a Derby," said Asmussen, who has another horse, Zanjero, running today as he attempts to win his first Derby. "Plus, there's a 20-horse field."

With a quarter of that 20-horse field is Todd Pletcher. Regarded as the best trainer in the industry, Pletcher has been anything but in Triple Crown races (0 for 21), and especially in the Derby (0 for 14). Each of Pletcher's horses, except the lightly regarded Sam P., is a legitimate threat.

The first question to be answered today will be about the pace of the race. Hard Spun, a Philadelphia-bred who some consider in the mold of 2004 Derby winner Smarty Jones, drew everyone's attention Monday when he turned in a blistering 5-furlong workout time of 57.6 seconds, the fastest Derby week workout since General Assembly's 57.4 in 1979, before finishing second to Spectacular Bid.

Hard Spun, Cowtown Cat, and probably Teuflesberg will attempt to take the early lead. If Hard Spun runs like he did Monday, it will be a matter of chasing him down.

"He has a high cruising speed," said Hard Spun's trainer, Larry Jones, who is also looking for his first Derby victory. "I think he will come close to the front end."

Once the lead has been established, it then becomes a matter of the jockeys figuring out the best way to challenge. Look for the soft Derby choices, such as Scat Daddy and Great Hunter, to make their runs. And for Curlin's jockey, Robby Albarado, to make the moves that resulted in the 10-length victory in the Arkansas Derby.

The feeling here is that Hard Spun will work his magic at the start and then ward off the challengers down the stretch, especially Scat Daddy, who may be Pletcher's best horse. Also look for a closer, such as Tiago, the Santa Anita Derby winner, or Circular Quay, who even Pletcher admits will not be a factor early, to make a charge that will be too late.

"No matter what happens, with a 20-horse field, somewhere along the way you have to have a little racing luck," said Tiago's trainer, John Shirreffs.

Shirreffs has had that luck, when Giacomo, who is Tiago's half-brother, came out of the pack as a 50-1 shot to win the Derby two years ago.

Whether that happens today -- with scattered thunderstorms in the forecast -- is another issue, all of which should make this one of the most intriguing Derbys in recent years.

Street Sense's trainer, Carl Nafzger, who had the 1990 Derby winner, Unbridled, put it in perspective. "Like with Unbridled, I like everything I've seen this week," he said. "There will be no excuses.

"This has the same kind of feeling in that you have 19 horses to beat, you've got to run your race, you've got to get through the field. If he gets his shot, he'll be in the top four. Who's gonna win? We don't know."

Mark Blaudschun can be reached at blaudschun@globe.com.