On the surface, this Derby appears up for grabs
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The primaries are over. Each of the candidates, coming from Florida, California, Illinois, Kentucky, New York, and Louisiana, stated their cases. Each offered legitimate arguments why they could win.
And yet each displayed flaws.
And that doesn't factor in the frenzy that will be present today: a full field of 20 horses and more than 150,000 spectators.
Welcome to the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby, a 1 1/4-mile test of endurance, maturity, and skill that will start the Triple Crown season.
The morning-line favorite is Big Brown, who is also the choice of the handicappers who live and die by the numbers. Three wins by a combined 29 lengths. Eye-popping, triple-digit Beyer figures through the prep season, which ended with a victory in the Florida Derby, the same launching pad Barbaro took two years ago.
"He is the fastest horse in the race," said Big Brown's trainer, Rick Dutrow. "We're the horse to beat and I feel confident that we're going to win the race."
In controlled conditions, that may very well be true. But the Kentucky Derby is anything but controlled, as the tension increases steadily throughout the day, culminating at post time slightly after 6.
Big Brown is a soft favorite, with only three career races, which would be the fewest for a Derby winner in 93 years. And he will be starting from the No. 20 post, which no Derby winner has done since Clyde Van Dusen won in 1929 in a walk-up start since starting gates had yet to be introduced.
Colonel John is the second choice (4-1) in the morning line, but the California-based horse has yet to run a race on dirt, which has raised some doubt, although he had solid workouts this week at
And then there is Pyro, which would have been a solid favorite if not for an abysmal 10th-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes. Pyro's backers say it was simply a case of him not liking the synthetic surface at Keeneland.
The handicappers are so uncertain that 13 horses in the field were 15-1 or 20-1 in the morning line.
Todd Pletcher, who has won the last four Eclipse Awards as the leading trainer in North America but is 0 for 19 in Derby starts, says the difference between last year and this year is minimal at best.
"Last year, it seemed pretty obvious at the time that Street Sense was the horse to beat along with Curlin and Hard Spun," said Pletcher, who has Monba and Cowboy Cal entered this year. "I think it was a little easier to identify who the horses were last year. But there are always question marks. I think what most horses are proving is that any individual horse is capable of doing anything and maybe Big Brown is so good that he can win the Derby in his fourth start."
If Big Brown is that good he will have to prove it quickly as he tries to overcome breaking from a post that has produced only one Derby winner in 133 years.
Uncertainty is evident looking at the list of horses regarded as the prime contenders. Pyro's failure in the Blue Grass lingers, Colonel John has yet to win on dirt, and Tale of Ekati won the Wood Memorial, but was the slowest Wood winner in more than 50 years.
If you prefer a sexier story line, Eight Belles, trained by Larry Jones, who brought us Hard Spun last season, is attempting to become only the fourth filly to win the Derby. But almost no one who saw Rags to Riches beat the boys in the Belmont last season believes Eight Belles is in that class.
The problem is that more horses have stumbled into the Derby than have sprinted into it. Hopefuls such as Pyro, Visionaire, Cool Coal Man, and Big Truck all came up short in the Blue Grass. Only eight of the 20 Derby horses are coming off wins.
So, what will we see today? The first key will be how Big Brown breaks from the gate. If, as Dutrow predicts, Big Brown starts quickly and establishes his dominance, it will be an early speed duel from the outside posts along with Gayego (post No. 19), Bob Black Jack (13), and Illinois Derby winner Recapturetheglory (18).
Then it will become a battle to see who controls the pace among the front-runners and among the closers such as Colonel John, Pyro, and Denis of Cork.
The feeling here is that Big Brown's talent will lose out to his lack of experience and that the Derby will end with a classic stretch duel between Colonel John, Pyro, and Monba, with Colonel John, who had an unbelievable stretch run to win the Santa Anita Derby, prevailing.
But it hardly seems like a sure thing. "In the Derby," said Colonel John's trainer, Eoin Harty, "anything can happen."
Mark Blaudschun can be reached at blaudschun@globe.com.
