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Breeder's Cup analysis

October 25, 2008
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A look at today's races at Santa Anita Park.

MARATHON

Conditions: 1 1/2 miles on artificial main track. The race starts on the backstretch, which means the horses will have to negotiate three turns.

Favorite: Sixties Icon, based in Europe, has won at this marathon distance.

Other top contenders: Zappa (has won at this distance), Big Booster (8 lengths behind Zappa in last race), Cedar Mountain (off since July but can win at this distance).

Possible long shot upsetters: Church Service (10-1), Muhannak (20-1).

Selections: 1. Cedar Mountain, 2. Muhannak, 3. Church Service.

TURF SPRINT

Conditions: 6 1/2 furlongs on the downhill grass course that is outside the main oval.

Favorite: Get Funky is a lukewarm choice but has experience on this quirky course.

Other top contenders: Fleeting Spirit (has raced against the best sprinters in Europe), Diabolical (hasn't won since March but always close), Mr. Nightlinger (5 of 6 lifetime on turf).

Possible long shot upsetters: True to Tradition (15-1), Only Answer (20-1), Rouse the Cat (20-1).

Selections: 1. Fleeting Spirit, 2. Mr. Nightlinger, 3. Only Answer.

DIRT MILE

Conditions: The "dirt" mile will actually be one lap on artificial surface.

Favorite: Well Armed, another lukewarm choice. He's in great form but usually runs longer distances.

Other top contenders: Albertus Maximus (finished 1 3/4 lengths behind Well Armed in last race), Lewis Michael (has only raced twice in '08), Surf Cat (loves Santa Anita), Mast Track (won Hollywood Gold Cup in June).

Possible long shot upsetters: My Pal Charlie (20-1), Rebellion (15-1), Two Step Salsa (15-1).

Selections: 1. Lewis Michael, 2. Well Armed, 3. Surf Cat.

TURF MILE

Conditions: One lap on turf course.

Favorite: Goldikova has won 5 of 8 lifetime in France.

Other top contenders: Whatsthescript (has won 6 of 12 lifetime), Kip Deville (the defending champ), Daytona (3 for 3 on this course).

Possible long shot upsetters: Bold Chieftain (15-1), Shakis (10-1), Thorn Song (12-1), War Monger (12-1).

Selections: 1. Goldikova, 2. Thorn Song, 3. War Monger.

JUVENILE

Conditions: A little bit more than one lap on the artificial surface for 2-year-olds.

Favorite: Munnings has won only once but is very talented.

Other top contenders: Square Eddie (European that's won one race in US), Midshipman (has won 2 of 3), Street Hero (won last on this track), Bushranger (won 4 of 6 in Europe).

Possible long shot upsetters: Silent Valor (15-1), West Side Bernie (20-1).

Selections: 1. Midshipman, 2. West Side Bernie, 3. Street Hero.

JUVENILE TURF

Conditions: One lap on the grass for 2-year-olds

Favorite: Bittel Road is undefeated in three races.

Other top contenders: Coronet of a Baron (good record, but has not raced on grass), Westphalia (won 3 of 6 in Europe), Grand Adventure (undefeated in Canada).

Possible long shot upsetters: Relatively Ready (12-1), Skipadate (6-1).

Selections: 1. Grand Adventure, 2. Westphalia, 3. Bittel Road.

SPRINT

Conditions: Six furlongs on the main artificial track.

Favorite: Street Boss has won 7 of 12 lifetime, loves Santa Anita, and is working great.

Other top contenders: Midnight Lute (defending champ, lost only '08 race but working fantastically), Fabulous Strike (has won 10 of 16 lifetime); Cost of Freedom (3 for 3 at distance, Santa Anita).

Possible long shot upsetters: In Summation (10-1), Black Seventeen (15-1).

Selections: 1. Street Boss, 2. Fabulous Strike, 3. Cost of Freedom.

TURF

Conditions: 1 1/2 miles starting on the downhill turf course before merging with the main turf course.

Favorite: Soldier of Fortune was third in the Arc de Triomphe against the best in Europe.

Other top contenders: Red Rocks (European, won '06 Turf), Grand Couturier (won Turf Classic at Belmont by 10 1/4 lengths), Conduit (won British Classic St. Leger in last race), Eagle Mountain (close but failed to beat best in Europe).

Possible long shot upsetters: Out of Control (10-1), Spring House (10-1), Winchester (15-1).

Selections: 1. Conduit, 2. Grand Couturier, 3. Red Rocks.

CLASSIC

Conditions: 1 1/4 miles on the artificial main track, starting on a chute a quarter-mile from the finish line.

Favorite: Curlin is the defending champ, '07 Horse of the Year, and a heavy favorite. The only question is how he will like the artificial surface.

Other top contenders: Raven's Pass (top-notch European has only raced on grass), Go Between (first or second in 6 races on artificial surface).

Possible long shot upsetters: Casino Drive (10-1), Colonel John (20-1), Duke of Marmalade (10-1), Henrythenavigator (10-1).

Selections: 1. Curlin, 2. Colonel John, 3. Casino Drive.

JOE SULLIVAN

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