BALTIMORE - The second leg of the Triple Crown, today's 134th Preakness Stakes, will have one of three themes.
No. 1 - Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird will prove that his victory at
No. 2 - Super filly Rachel Alexandra will give a boost to the sport by knocking off the boys.
No. 3 - Neither Rachel Alexandra nor Mine That Bird will win and the spotlight on the Triple Crown season will be turned off.
Nos. 1 and 2 have much appeal, but it is plausible that No. 3 will unfold this afternoon, with an unheralded horse such as Big Drama or Musket Man coming up with a career race to muddle a season that has yet to produce a superstar.
Rachel Alexandra might fit that mold if she prevails in her first challenge against the boys. She is the morning-line favorite (8-5) and is so good that jockey Calvin Borel, who rode Mine That Bird in the Derby, chose to ride Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness (he also rode her to a 20 1/4-length victory in the Kentucky Oaks).
"Believe me, if I had Rachel Alexandra, she'd have been in the Derby," said Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who has two horses running in the Preakness - Flying Private and Luv Gov. "Are you kidding me? That would have been a no-brainer. I'd have led her over there and said, 'Boys, just get in the gate, you're in deep crap.' "
History suggests that Rachel Alexandra won't be able to pull off a victory today. Since 1939, only three other fillies have run in the Preakness. Two of them, Genuine Risk (1980) and Winning Colors (1988), had won the Derby. Neither won the Preakness, with Genuine Risk finishing second and Winning Colors third. Only four fillies have won the Preakness, with Nellie Morse the last to do it, in 1924.
The original plan was for Rachel Alexandra to continue racing fillies, at least for the near future. But when she was sold to a group led by wine mogul Jess Jackson, plans changed.
Now she is the favorite, looking to run into the history books, just as Mine That Bird did two weeks ago with his victory over a field of more highly touted 3-year-olds.
Mine That Bird trainer Chip Woolley, who scrambled quickly to retain the services of Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, says his horse can handle any challenge, even one from a super filly.
"It's just one more horse in the race," said Woolley yesterday morning. "We've got to beat 12 of them."
Woolley says the strategy for Mine That Bird under Smith will be the same as he told Borel for the Derby: "Drop back early and then make your move."
"If he dropped back at Sunland [Mine That Bird's base track in New Mexico], he'd have won them all," said Woolley. "That's the problem. He doesn't need to be up there. He needs to drop back. That's the only way to win races like these with him."
If Mine That Bird, who is running from the No. 2 post position, and Rachel Alexandra, who is running from the No. 13 slot, have to work to get to the rail or don't get there, the Preakness will be a wide-open affair.
Speculation ranges from Big Drama, who has won six straight races, including the Grade II Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park, to Derby post-time favorite Friesan Fire, who called it a day early in the Derby after getting bounced around coming out of the gate.
But a sleeper might be Pioneerof the Nile, who was doing well in the Derby until Mine That Bird raced past him. Trainer Bob Baffert, who has four Preakness victories, says that weather permitting (rain is in the forecast), Pioneerof the Nile is ready to deal with the dirt.
"He's really bounced out of it well," said Baffert. "I've had horses that I've run there [the Derby] that you can tell it really took a lot out of them and I really didn't want to bring them, but I sort of had to bring them to take another shot at it. [Pioneerof the Nile] came like the ones that won it. He's going to run a big race."
Mark Blaudschun can be reached at blaudschun@globe.com. 
