Rain could rule day in Derby
‘Lucky’, ‘Candy’ may battle in slop
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Normally by the time race day arrives on the first Saturday in May, almost every projection has been made for the marquee event of the thoroughbred racing season.
The 136th running of the Kentucky Derby seemed no different as the midweek chatter of how early favorites — Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy — would do, coming from opposite ends of the starting gate.
Lookin at Lucky, 3-1, will break from the No. 1 post, which hasn’t produced a Derby winner in 24 years. Sidney’s Candy, 5-1, will start at No. 20, the outermost post, which requires both early speed and stamina.
But now there has been an added starter: Rain is in the Derby Day forecast.
Lots of it — forecasts have 2 to 5 inches to hit the Louisville area, including more than an inch this afternoon, which would be the wettest Derby since 1929 when 1.19 inches soaked the crowd and the track.
And that could change everything, including the on-track odds, which by the end of racing action yesterday had dropped Lookin at Lucky to 9-1 and Sidney’s Candy to 11-1, with the Todd Pletcher- trained Super Saver, dropping from 15-1 to 7-1.
“Any time the track gets like that, every long shot has a chance,’’ said trainer Bob Baffert, who hopes that theory doesn’t hold up since he is also the trainer of Lookin At Lucky.
“There’s so many different states of mud,’’ said Pletcher, who is trying to break an 0-for-24 streak of Derby entries over the past decade. “There’s fast mud, slow mud. It could be a sloppy track, muddy track, or good track — a lot of in-between. I don’t think until you get there you’ll really know.’’
Significantly all four of Pletcher’s horses — Super Saver, Devil May Care, Discreetly Mine, and Mission Impazible — have run on off tracks. Super Saver and Devil May Care, the only filly entered, have each won on surfaces deemed “sloppy.’’
Projections of an off track lead to dreams of long shots winning, which is what happened a year ago when Mine That Bird, a 50-1 shot coming out of New Mexico’s Sunland Park, won the race.
But with smaller crowds, smaller handles, a dwindling fan base, and no Triple Crown winner in 33 years, horse racing also needs a superstar to galvanize its supporters. Whether it is with this group of 3-year-olds remains questionable.
Many people believed Eskendereya had some of those traits, but Pletcher’s horse was scratched with an ankle injury Sunday, leaving Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy as shaky favorites.
Each of them has question marks. Lookin at Lucky has had two bad trips this year, most recently a disappointing third-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, which prompted a mini-battle of words between Baffert and jockey Garrett Gomez. The two have since made peace, but another rough trip today could produce more sparks.
Sidney’s Candy, which has never run on dirt, drew the No. 20 post. The last Kentucky Derby winner to win from the outside was Ferdinand in 1986, and that was a 16-horse field. The last Derby winner from the No. 20 post was War Admiral in 1937.
Throwing in a sloppy track just adds questions, but Pletcher sees some blue skies in the rainy forecast.
“If there’s some likelihood of slop or something similar, it may be an edge for us,’’ said Pletcher, who has seen Super Saver win by 7 lengths when he broke his maiden last September at Belmont. “We know we can get over it and I’m not sure all of the others can say that.’’
Nick Zito, who has two horses running today — Ice Box, a deep closer and Jackson Bend, who is a mid-pack runner — thinks the speed will rule today.
“Speed will carry in the slop, always does,’’ said Zito.
Baffert, looking for his fourth Derby victory, says he is unsure of what Lookin at Lucky will do in the mud.
“Lucky has never had mud in his face,’’ said Baffert. “You don’t know how he is going to handle it. Sometimes with the weather like that [rain], the inside might be a little better.
“The main thing is that the horse is a good horse. We’re going to find out how good this horse is. If he’s that good, he’ll win it.’’
No matter what the weather conditions are at race time.![]()



