Waiting to inhale in Beijing

A soldier stands guard in Tiananmen Square in early March under blue, not polluted, skies. (Shira Spinger/For the Globe)

BEIJING - Morning rush-hour traffic fills the streets surrounding Tiananmen Square and the Forbidden City. A growing stream of bicycles, cars, and tourist buses winds chaotically beneath pale blue skies. While a gauzy haze covers the sun, the air quality looks and feels far better than the adverse conditions described by media outlets around the world.

In recent weeks, concerns about pollution at the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing have grabbed international headlines, especially in light of comments by Ethiopian distance-running legend Haile Gebrselassie. The men's marathon world record-holder is asthmatic, and he fears running 26.2 miles in Beijing could jeopardize his health and career. Gebrselassie may skip the marathon and compete for a third Olympic title in the 10,000 meters.

But members of the US men's Olympic marathon team - Ryan Hall, Dathan Ritzenhein, and Brian Sell - remain eager to compete on a course that will pass many of the city's historic sites.

"Unless they totally cancel the Olympics or boycott them, I'm going to run no matter what, because I probably won't get another opportunity at it," said Sell, 30. "When you're the world record-holder by like 30 seconds, running in the Olympics probably isn't as important to him as it would be to somebody like me. This has been my goal for the last eight years. My main fear is that I go run this marathon and develop some long-term complication and it hampers me in future marathons."

While elite marathoners haven't followed Gebrselassie's lead to shorter distances, his remarks renewed the focus on air quality that, in addition to human-rights issues, made Beijing a controversial choice as Olympic host. As coal-burning factories, nonstop construction, and automobile-clogged streets signify China's determined rise to international economic power, the world's most populous nation (1.3 billion) also ranks as the one of its most polluted.

Upon returning last week from his 19th and final pre-Olympic planning visit to the Chinese capital with team leaders, USOC Chief of Sport Performance Steve Roush sees reason for cautious optimism about the air quality in August. The government reported Beijing had 246 "blue sky days" of low to moderate pollution last year, an improvement from 100 nearly a decade earlier. According to Roush and an International Olympic Committee-commissioned analysis of Beijing conditions by four independent experts, heat and humidity may pose a greater threat than pollution.

"On my first visit to Beijing in early 2002, the amount of pollution was pretty eye-opening," said Roush, who didn't see the sun during his initial visit. "You couldn't be there without saying, 'This could be a problem.' Right now, I don't think it will be a big factor. They have made [air quality] a priority, and they are doing everything they can to ensure it does not become the issue of the Games. They don't want the focus on pollution instead of the performances of the athletes."

While Roush did not officially evaluate pollution levels this month, he ran every day, following a workout routine in Beijing that would have been almost impossible four or five years ago because of pollution. Still, there is some distance to go before pollution levels go unnoticed by elite athletes.

After a 45-minute jog on some of the same streets where the marathons will be run, this reporter experienced minor discomfort and heaviness in my lungs and griminess on my skin. The dry dustiness of the morning air left a slight throat tickle, but the acrid smell from earlier in the run went away near the finish.

Confidence in the air

IOC officials concede the quality of the distance events in the Games may suffer. Outdoor events lasting one hour or longer pose the greatest potential risk to athletes, including the marathon, road cycling, and triathlon.

"It may be that some events will not be conducted under optimal conditions - which is the reality of sports competitions - and that we may not see records broken in Beijing," said Arne Ljungqvist, chairman of the IOC's medical commission, in a statement.

Ljungqvist based his comments on data gathered from Aug. 8-29, 2007, approximately the same time frame as the 2008 Games. The IOC plans to monitor air quality daily during the Olympics, and reserves the right to postpone any event because of poor conditions.

But if past pollution cleanup serves as prelude for the Summer Games, then the Chinese capital should have clear skies and respectable air quality for the Aug. 8-24 event. When Roush traveled to Beijing in November 2006, his two-week trip overlapped with visits by African leaders and IOC members. To show Beijing at its best, Chinese officials took many of the same pollution-reduction measures - shutting down factories, restricting automobile traffic, suspending construction - that will be in effect before and during the Olympics.

"For those two weeks, those were the bluest skies that I've ever seen in Beijing," said Roush. "My confidence rose significantly. In my mind, I was seeing exactly what they're striving for in August."

Roush added that he expects conditions in Beijing, at the least, will be the same as those at the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics, when pollution was a similarly major concern.

From the Great Wall to Beijing's busiest downtown shopping district on Wangfujing Dajie, signs promote the upcoming Games. In Tiananmen Square, a giant clock counts down the days, hours, minutes, and seconds until the opening ceremonies. And while the area around the Olympic "Bird's Nest" Stadium remains a bustling construction site, the Chinese have stayed on perfect pace to complete the infrastructure needed to host the Games.

"Most athletes who are coming to Beijing are satisfied with, and have full confidence in, Beijing's air quality, environment, and sports facilities," said China's foreign minister, Yang Jiechi, in the China Daily shortly after Gebrselassie's remarks. "I believe the air quality in Beijing will only become better and better."

Heat, humidity real factor

With almost five months of training left until the men's Olympic marathon Aug. 24, Hall, Ritzenhein, and Sell are focused on preparing for the heat and humidity. In Beijing, August high temperatures can range from 85 to 100 degrees, with humidity potentially as high as 95 percent.

"I've definitely experienced how tough it can be to run in the heat and humidity and I think that's more of a risk for the endurance events than the pollution," said Ritzenhein. "There can be more complications with heat and humidity. Maybe people will say afterward that they felt bad and the pollution must have been the factor, but I really think the heat and humidity will be the real reason behind people's problems."

All three US marathoners will spend most of their time in China in the northern port city of Dalian, site of the USA Track and Field training camp. An hour flight from Beijing, Dalian will expose athletes to heat and humidity without the pollution.

As president of Global Athletics & Marketing, Mark Wetmore represents some of the world's most successful track and field athletes, including the top two female Ethiopian distance track runners, Meseret Defar and Tirunesh Dibaba. In conversations with his clients, adverse conditions in Beijing receive no more than a passing mention.

Recognizing Gebrselassie stands as a notable exception, Wetmore said, "[The Ethiopians] are pretty comfortable in their ability to adjust. If they don't win, it won't be because they've been blindsided by the conditions. At some point, by athletes and some coaches making [air quality] a bigger and bigger deal, I think they're starting to put it into some athletes' heads.

"One thing I'll tell you for sure is that in Ethiopia, they're not dwelling on the fact that conditions won't be perfect."

Shira Springer can be reached at springer@globe.com.