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Mirai Nagasu will be looking toward Vancouver and the Games in 2010. (Elaine Thompson/Associated Press) |
The Alpine skiers are back on the Austrian glacier, where winter begins before Halloween. The figure skaters are in a Seattle suburb to begin the jet-lag pilgrimage that is the three-continent Grand Prix tour. And the short-track speedskaters already are into their second World Cup weekend.
With the Vancouver Games just one winter removed, this season's Cup circuits and world championships will provide the Olympic form chart and, in some sports, determine entry slots.
The Americans, who had their best Olympic overseas performance in history two years ago (25 medals, nine gold), have improved significantly since in several sports - Alpine and Nordic skiing, skeleton sledding, and women's ice hockey.
In others, most notably long-track speedskating, bobsled, luge, and curling, there's been a significant downturn. If the Yanks want to catch the Germans in 2010, they'll need to start upgrading now. What will help is having four world championships in the States - bobsled, skeleton, and luge in Lake Placid and figure skating in Los Angeles.
Here is a sport-by-sport glimpse of the upcoming winter.
Figure skating - The Hello Kitty Generation (teen ingenues Mirai Nagasu, Rachael Flatt, and Caroline Zhang) were too young to compete at last season's world championships, but they've come of age. At least one figures to make the medal stand in LA. With Canadian world titlist Jeff Buttle and Swiss two-time champion Stephane Lambiel retired since the summer, the door is open for the first American men's champ since Todd Eldredge a dozen years ago, if either Evan Lysacek or Johnny Weir literally can elevate his game. Keauna McLaughlin, who also was born too late to go global last season, is the most promising US-born pairs skater in years and she and partner Rockne Brubaker could be among the planet's top half-dozen. If dancers Tanith Belbin and Benjamin Agosto can bounce back from a rare off year, the Yanks should be good for at least three world medals.
Alpine skiing - For the first time in 25 years, the Americans begin the World Cup season with the reigning men's (Bode Miller) and women's (Lindsey Vonn) champions. The primary goal, though, is grabbing a few medals at the biennial world championships in the French Alps in February, where the Austrians, Swiss, and Germans will pose the usual obstacles. Miller and Vonn could win two apiece in the downhill and combined and Ted Ligety will be favored in the giant slalom, where Olympic champ Julia Mancuso will be in the chase on the women's side.
Nordic skiing - Getting closer to the global medal stand all the time. Kikkan Randall last season became the first US woman to win a World Cup cross-country race and Andy Newell earned a silver. The Yanks still can't go the distance with the Europeans, but they sprint superbly. Bill Demong, who made six podiums and won a gold, will be a threat every week in Nordic combined. Now if they can just get the jumpers aloft.
Freestyle skiing - The rest of the world - Aussies, Canadians, Chinese, et al - have caught and passed the Americans, who've been losing ground for a decade. Patrick Deneen and Nate Roberts are contenders in men's moguls, as is Emily Cook in women's aerials, but the US may get shut out at the world championships and possibly in Vancouver.
Snowboarding - With or without the Flying Tomato (Shaun White), whose whereabouts are whimsical, the boarders still rule. Olympic champs Hannah Teter and Seth Wescott are still in the game, as are silver medalists Lindsey Jacobellis and Gretchen Bleiler. A reliable, if eccentric, medal machine.
Biathlon - It's been two decades and more since the Americans have had anyone in the global medals, but Tim Burke is within range of the podium after posting four top-10 finishes on last season's World Cup circuit. There's a mob of Norwegians and Russians in his way, but Burke has more promise than any Yank since Josh Thompson. It'll be a couple of quadrennia, though, before an American woman can challenge the Germans.
Ice hockey - The American women, who'd played second banana to the Canadians forever (with one golden exception in Salt Lake), now rule, having won two of the last three world titles. If they can prevail again in Finland next spring, they'll go to Olympus favored to win on their archrivals' home ice. That's highly unlikely for the US males, who haven't made the global podium since 2004 and were sixth last year.
Long-track speedskating - Last year was the Shani Show, with Mr. Davis essentially a one-man team as distance ace Chad Hedrick showed signs of slippage. Davis still is the world's best in the 1,000 meters and a sure medalist in the 1,500, but there's little depth behind him. With Jennifer Rodriguez coming out of retirement, the women have the star they've been lacking, but they're still nowhere near the Germans, Dutch, and Canadians.
Short-track speedskating - Apolo Anton Ohno comes in as world champion after elbowing his way through a Korean thicket last season and there's some decent depth behind him with Ryan Leveille and Jeff Simon. The women don't have a superstar, but Katherine Reutter is on the rise and Olympians Kimberley Derrick and Allison Baver are solid.
Bobsled - Decidedly uncool runnings for the Yanks last season, with no world medals for either the men or women. Steve Holcomb, the former World Cup champ, was off form, finishing fourth in the overall standings, and Olympic runner-up Shauna Rohbock was blocked by the Germans. Home ice will help for the world championships, where unretired three-time Olympian Todd Hays could have a reprise.
Luge - It's been downhill, literally, since Salt Lake, where the Yanks won a couple of medals on their home track. Last season was a wipeout, with no World Cup podiums and nothing at the world championships. Erin Hamlin and the double of Chris Niccum and Dan Joye are solid top-10ers, but they're still well up the track from the Germans, who own all three events.
Skeleton - With reigning World Cup titlist Katie Uhlaender and former world champion Noelle Pikus-Pace (back from maternity leave), the US has a powerful 1-2 punch that could KO the Germans. Britain's Kristan Bromley is the top male belly-flopper, but both Zach Lund and Eric Bernotas could end up on the world podium at Placid.
Curling - The Brazilian men have challenged the US for a berth in this season's world championships. Such is the comedown for the Yanks, who dropped from third to seventh last year on home ice in North Dakota. The women, who once were solidly silver, also slipped to seventh, missing the playoffs for the first time in six years.![]()



