It bodes well

Can Bode Miller become the first US skier since Phil Mahre in 1982 to win the overall World Cup title? That question will be answered at the FIS finals in Lenzerheide, Switzerland, March 9-13.

US men's coach Phil McNichol -- who has watched Miller try to hold off Austrian Benjamin Raich's charge -- has long predicted his superstar could pull off the feat.

After last weekend's action in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany, in which Miller gained points in three speed events, the American has a 1,253-1,062 lead.

With eight races left in the season -- two slaloms, two giant slaloms, two super-Gs, and two downhills -- the final weeks have an interesting symmetry.

Raich has dominated the slalom (first) and is fourth in GS and fifth in super-G. Miller is second in downhill and first in GS and super-G. So it would seem McNichol's forecast for a last-event showdown is accurate.

Though he dislikes the notion, Miller can go a long way to help his cause by skiing for points rather than wins -- especially in technical races.

Since his early season slalom win, Miller acknowledges he has had "some trouble" with slalom, which he hopes to overcome at this weekend's event in Kranjska Gora, Slovenia.

According to his coaches, Miller takes too many risks, takes too tight a line, and ultimately flames out in one run or another. The most glaring example came two weeks ago in the World Championships in Bormio, Italy. In the Nation's Team event, Miller could have won a medal for the United States had he simply finished eighth in a nine-man field.

But this isn't college racing, where the team concept almost demands racers to err on the conservative side to finish courses and score points. World Cup racers are trained and conditioned to go "full gas" to win races.

"The team event is all about finishing," said US Alpine director Jesse Hunt, whose team fell to a fourth-place finish. "We had a strong team across the board here, and had good strength overall. But [in team racing], one of the tricks is to learn how to back down without losing timing. That's very tricky."

In other words, when racing against the world's best, how conservative can a skier be without ending up way back in the weeds?

Former US downhiller Doug Lewis -- winner of the bronze medal at the 1985 Worlds -- painted an interesting image: Picture yourself sitting in a chair in the middle of the floor. Lean back as far as you dare. At some point, if you lean too far, you'll fall over backward. But if you don't lean back far enough, you risk nothing. At some point, you find a perfect balance, which is what the ski racer seeks.

So let's concede Raich the slalom win Saturday in Slovenia, giving him 100 points. If Miller could manage a fourth (worth 70 points), that would give him a 161-point lead entering the giant slalom the next day. Given the same finishes in the GS, Miller would come out of the weekend with a 131-point lead (1,393-1,262).

So the odds have to favor him the following weekend in Kvitfjell, Norway, with a downhill and super-G. Let's project him for a minimum of 140 points (two fourth-place finishes). Raich won't race downhill, so even projecting a win in the super-G, Miller would add 40 points to his lead, giving him a 1,533-1,362 advantage.That takes the tour into its finale in Switzerland in March. If Miller heads into the series with that 171-point lead, and averages a fourth-place finish in all four races, he would end the season at 1,813 points.

Now, if Raich had a spectacular weekend, winning three of four events -- unheard of, even for Raich -- the closest he could get to Miller's point total is 151 points.

But this is all based on the assumption that Miller can finish races with an average of fourth place. Not glorious, perhaps, and certainly not as jaw-dropping as a 1.5-second win, of which Miller has proved himself capable. But those kinds of finishes require, in the case of technical races, two nearly perfect runs.

Possible? Of course. But is such a feat probable this time of year, with a few aches and pains, not to mention the fatigue of a 38-race schedule?

So, while ski racing is a tenuous business in which a quarter of an inch can be the difference between a win or a hooked-tip DNF, the overall World Cup title seems to be Miller's to lose.

And the battle is definitely between Miller and Raich, who could be locked in the struggle for supremacy for many years to come -- reminiscent of Mahre and Ingemar Stenmark in the early 1980s.