Tennis's green monster not as scary this year

LONDON - Roger Federer is worried.

That is the diagnosis of the eminent Belgrade psychologist, who also plays some tennis, Novak Djokovic. Considering his most recent egg laid in a significant nest, the French Open final - scrambled, poached, or sunny-side down - Federer has a right to nibble his nails down to the elbow.

Djokovic, who pickpocketed Federer's Australian Open title five months ago, suggests that the pressures of being perfect for so long have eroded the efficiency of the Lord of the Swings, and that it's time for a changing of the guard - not outside of Buckingham Palace but at Roger's palace, Wimbledon's Centre Court.

Queen Elizabeth II doesn't care for tennis, even though - or maybe because - her father, George VI, played the Big W in 1926. George, then the Duke of York, a lefty like champs Martina Navratilova, Rod Laver, and John McEnroe, however performed like a serf in doubles, and returned only as a spectator. The Queen, like Federer, a believer in long reigns, may not feel that five years is enough for the gifted Swiss. Dissenting feelings come from Serbia and Spain in the persons of outspoken Djokovic and outpopping muscular Rafael Nadal, who fried Federer, 6-1, 6-3, 6-0, in Paris - a bagel with your egg, Roger?

Despite a "the sky is not falling" theme, Federer is definitely off his A-plus game. He has won only two titles this year, both inconsequential affairs, and losses to lesser types Mardy Fish, Radek Stepanek, and Andy Murray have fueled talk of decline.

But . . . but this is Wimbledon. This is where each blade of grass seems to bow to him, Centre Court welcomes him back with a streak of 35 wins intact and the ghost of Willie Renshaw trembles. This is the stage on which Federer is expected to open - and close - the show. Today, Slovak Dominic Hrbaty has a chance for a historic niche by beating Federer. Not much of a chance. Only once before - in 2003 - has a nobody whacked the defending champ. That was when the Leaning Tower of Zagreb, 6-foot-10-inch Ivo Karlovic, a qualifier ranked No. 203, ousted Lleyton Hewitt. But Hewitt was no Federer.

One of Federer's foes now is the history book. After winning the US Open last year, Federer is just two behind Pete Sampras's record of 14 major singles titles. Everybody, including Sampras, concedes that it will fall soon. Maybe, but will life be easier for Federer, 27 in August, with the 21-year-old Djokovic and the 22-year-old Nadal snapping at his sneakers?

Then, there's 147-year-old Willie Renshaw out there somewhere in the ozone. Willie holds the record of six successive singles crowns (1881-86) that Federer seeks to equal and surpass. But it was somewhat less demanding physically in the days of Renshaw, a native who is credited with popularizing Wimbledon, along with his twin brother, Ernest. (They won the doubles seven times.) The singles champ needed to play only one match the following year, a challenge round against the winner of the all-comers tourney. Thus over six straight years Willie won merely 12 matches. That system lasted until 1920.

Bjorn Borg also had Renshaw on his mind in 1981. Finally beaten after five consecutive titles and a record 41 straight matches by McEnroe, Borg feels Federer will come through, and will be pleased to watch him do it.

"That's what the records are there for - to be broken," Borg said. "I enjoyed it when I broke them." One of his that probably won't be: 33 straight Davis Cup singles wins.

But Borg recognizes that Federer has the tougher draw: Djokovic in the semis, and Nadal, who pushed him to five sets in the brilliant 2007 finale. That's if all goes to expectations for the Terrible Triangle, standing out away from the rest.

My choice is the constantly improving Nadal. He's not your usual Spaniard, believing that grass is meant for football, cows' salad greens, and Goya's landscapes. He liked it immediately, though a mystery. But his speed, athleticism, and competitive verve lifted him to two finals on his third and fourth expeditions.

"Maybe I serve and volley someday, no?" Nadal said with a laugh, as good-naturedly as the lone Spaniard to go all the way, the engaging Manolo Santana in 1966. Santana also won the US Championship in 1965, pre-Flushing Meadow, spread across the Forest Hills lawns in New York.

Djokovic, in launching psychological warfare, talking about Federer's worries, has had a few problems here himself. But the pressures also may be spread three ways in the women's draw, where No. 1 - abandoned by Justine Henin - is held by French Open champ Ana Ivanovic - and is there for the plucking. The other Serbian, Jelena Jankovic, is No. 2; the 2004 champ and present Australian title-holder Russian Maria Sharapova No. 3.

And the envelope? My pick is No. 7 Venus Williams, to hang onto her championship. Big Sister Williams is the most relaxed gal in the ballpark, and - can you believe it? - this is her 11th start and she's pursuing her fifth title.

So the grand-daddy of all tennis tournaments is cranking up again, time to order green - creme de menthe on ice cream - and dream of the Lord of the Swings virtuosity. Even if he is worried.