t's a little like going on that dream vacation but spoiling the moment by worrying about all the things that might go wrong. You left the car running in the garage. Your daughter runs off with a tattoo artist. Your passport expired six months ago. You hand a store clerk your credit card, and he collapses in laughter.
Any one of those things are guaranteed to keep you awake at night.
And so it is for the Red Sox fan. This spring is ripe with expectancy after two splendid summers that caught New England by surprise, back-to-back trips to the playoffs and a first-ever League Championship Series against the Yankees.
Now, surprise has been replaced by what feels suspiciously like a sense of entitlement. We have Nomar Garciaparra, we have Pedro and Ramon Martinez, now we have Carl Everett. It's no longer a case of, ''Wouldn't it be nice to go to the World Series?'' It's more like, ''How does this team not get to the World Series?''
It's everywhere. On the cover of a national magazine. On the talk shows. At the office, the body shop, the beauty salon. The Yankee Century has run its course. This, at last, is the year.
And then, like the fretful vacationer, the Sox fan, falling back on a lifetime of training, begins to imagine all the things that could go wrong. What if Pedro gets hurt, or Nomar? What if Everett's not as good as we've heard? What if Derek Lowe is not cut out to be a closer, or Brian Daubach is a one-year wonder? What if Tim Wakefield's knuckler goes flat, or El Guapo gets too fat? What if Offy goes iffy? What if the kid pitchers are overrated? What if Val's knees turn to jelly?
Soon, the what-ifs stretch from Ashby to Yarmouth, Bangor to Woonsocket, and the shadows blot out what had just recently been the brightest of Florida suns. Instead of savoring what could be the best summer since Teddy Ballgame was born, the gloom that is stamped on this region like a birthright slips under the door and through the floorboards.
To which Jimy Williams, the Red Sox manager, shakes his head and utters the words that have carried him through seasons both sad and sublime:
''Let's play the schedule.''
So go on. Take that trip, after all. And enjoy the ride.
Starting pitching
In 1963, Sandy Koufax went 25-5 and pitched the Dodgers to a four-game sweep of the New York Yankees in the World Series. The following season, he went 19-5, and in 1965, he went 26-8 and won another World Series ring. His ERAs in those years: 1.88, 1.74, and 2.04. The point? Nobody thought it remarkable then that Koufax strung together such spectacular performances. So enough of this ''What will Pedro do for an encore?'' stuff. The best pitcher in baseball, Pedro Martinez, should be every bit as dominating as he was last season, assuming he stays healthy. Yes, the fact that he broke down in midseason and again in October ratchets up the concerns. This will be his seventh season as a full-time starter; brother Ramon broke down in his eighth. But Pedro was healthy from the first day of camp, and pitching coach Joe Kerrigan and manager Jimy Williams have been masterful in protecting their meal ticket. The rest of the rotation has more than its share of questions - odd for a staff that led the American League in team ERA. Ramon is in a situation similar to the one Bret Saberhagen was in last season. How his shoulder holds up will dictate how much he can be used. Saberhagen pitched just 119 innings last season. Jeff Fassero was a mess mechanically this spring, and isn't close to dispelling suspicions that last year's 5-14 record represented a permanent downturn for the 37-year-old lefthander. Tim Wakefield had a tutorial this spring from his knuckleball daddy, Phil Niekro, and was throwing strikes. Brian Rose had a strong spring. His stuff reminds Toronto assistant GM Dave Stewart of Greg Maddux - high praise indeed - but it will take time for Rose to come close to having Madduxlike command. Juan Pena didn't earn a starting slot and is undergoing tests on his arm, but he is almost certain to get a call this summer. Look for Korean Sunny Kim to be here by midsummer; less certain is when Saberhagen comes back, though he keeps insisting mid-May is possible. If Pedro goes down, of course, this team is in big trouble.
Bullpen
Derek Lowe will be 27 in June, and after thriving in a setup role for two seasons, he inherits a closer role for which he has been carefully groomed. He had 15 saves last season, did not lose a game in Fenway Park, and complements one of the best sinkers in the game with a fine curveball. He should do fine as closer, and Jimy Williams won't hesitate to use him for two-inning saves. But the potential trouble spot is that the Sox don't have anyone who can navigate the seventh and eighth innings the way Lowe did. That burden will fall on Rich Garces, who had a fine '99 after two summers of elbow problems, and Rod Beck, who showed little this spring and opens the season on the DL with an irritated nerve in his neck. Beck is a key. Bryce Florie, who would prefer to start, pitched well out of the pen in camp, and John Wasdin will be back as long man. Korean lefthander Sang Lee failed to make the team out of camp and looms as $3.35 million unwisely invested, though general manager Dan Duquette insists Lee just needs time to adjust to the American way. The unheralded but effective Rheal Cormier is the only lefty reliever on the roster; Jeff Fassero could wind up joining him.
Infield
Nomar Garciaparra went the first month of last season without a home run and still finished with 27, the same number of games he missed with a variety of injuries. This spring, he missed the first 10 days in Florida with a sprained ligament in his right knee, and inevitably will face more questions about whether his relentless workout regimen places too much pressure on his body's stress points. He should benefit from having another big bat (Carl Everett's) in the lineup, though his performance last season suggests he barely missed Mo Vaughn. Jose Offerman, who came into the last day in Florida with a .472 average, provided about all you could ask from a leadoff hitter last year. That makes his defensive shortcomings tolerable, though the Sox' failure to turn double plays figured in their ALCS loss to the Yankees. John Valentin was still limping this spring after undergoing surgery three months ago on his left knee. His 17 RBIs in 10 postseason games, and hot prospect Wilton Veras just a bus ride away in Pawtucket, will keep the pressure on him to produce. What does it say about the defense at first base that Gary Gaetti, who is 41 and has bad knees, is probably the best gloveman of the bunch? But Mike Stanley and Brian Daubach combined to hit 40 home runs and drive in 145 runs last year. Daubach will be watched closely; he had just one spring homer before hitting two yesterday.
Outfield
Can it be only three years ago that the Sox had Shane Mack in center field and Rudy Pemberton in right? Last season, Boston center fielders combined to hit seven home runs and drive in 59 runs. Newcomer Carl Everett hit 25 home runs and knocked in 108, and with batting champion Nomar Garciaparra, he should be part of one of the most formidable 3-4 combinations in the league. Everett has style, poise, and intensity, too, and seems to welcome the challenge of performing on a high-voltage stage. Troy O'Leary knocked in 100 runs for the first time last season, and his home runs have nearly doubled in two seasons, from 15 in 1997 to 28 last season. He also proved in the Division Series against Cleveland with his dramatic Game 5 home runs (after intentional walks to Garciaparra) that he will make you pay if not given his due. Trot Nixon had a terrific spring and should avoid a start as horrible as last year's, while Darren Lewis is an exceptional outfielder off the bench.
Catching
Sandy Alomar has better credentials but much weaker knees. So that leaves Jason Varitek as the second-best catcher in the American League, behind only Pudge Rodriguez. Varitek's 20 home runs in 1999 were the most by a Sox catcher since Rich Gedman in '84, and the switch hitter could easily tack on another five this year. But his value to this team comes in his work behind the plate and his presence in the clubhouse. Backup Scott Hatteberg would prefer to play every day elsewhere, but Jimy Williams has promised him steady work as Tim Wakefield's catcher (which will save some wear on Varitek), and his lefthanded power makes him a nice asset. His throwing, a year after elbow surgery, will come under scrutiny.
The DH
Brian Daubach, who belted two homers in yesterday's Florida farewell, will be the lefthanded DH. Gary Gaetti, a last-minute invitee to camp, incredibly opens the season as righthanded DH. That almost certainly is a short-term arrangement, until GM Dan Duquette finds a better option. If Daubach falters, the Sox will chart closely the progress of top prospect Dernell Stenson in Pawtucket. A long shot in the mix is Frontier League legend Morgan Burkhart, who will begin the season as Pawtucket's DH after a year in which he hit more than 50 home runs in the minors and Mexico.
Speed
No Sox team in recent memory had as much speed as this club does. Jose Offerman's stolen base total dropped from 45 for Kansas City in 1998 to 18 last season, but he has excellent first-to-third speed. Carl Everett stole 27 bases for Houston last year despite groin and hamstring pulls. Darren Lewis, who expects to be used late in games as a pinch runner, stole seven bases in spring training and worked tirelessly with coach Tommy Harper. Lewis stole 16 bases last season, two more than Nomar Garciaparra. And Donnie Sadler, when he arrives, is the fastest man in the organization.
Managing
Jimy Williams used 110 different lineups last season, more than any other manager in the game. He stitched together a rotation out of 13 starting pitchers. He adjusted to a season-ending injury to his closer (Tom Gordon), successfully selling Tim Wakefield on the idea he could close games. He stuck with Trot Nixon during the rookie's horrific April slump, personally spending hours with Nixon in the cage. He was the American League's Manager of the Year, and still spent most of spring training working on back fields, hitting fungos, and pitching BP. He is simultaneously a hands-on manager in his work habits while hands-off in creating an environment in which his players thrive. Few baseball people draw as much praise both inside and outside the clubhouse as Williams does. Outside of drafting Nomar and trading for Pedro, hiring Williams may have been Duquette's finest move.
Bench
Manny Alexander, who came from the Cubs in a deal for Damon Buford, and Jeff Frye open the season as backup infielders, with Donnie Sadler certain to get first call as soon as the need arises. Sadler deserves to be on this club, but Dan Duquette failed to make a deal for Frye and refuses to eat his $2.5 million contract.
Karma
Roger Clemens barely concealed a smirk when told that the Sox were Sports Illustrated's choice to win the World Series. ''Good, great - a new century,'' he said. Expectations are off the charts, but there is a collective conviction in this clubhouse that those expectations are not out of line with what this team is capable of producing. And Carl Everett, who threw down the gauntlet to the Yankees on his first day in camp, fits right in. No Sox team has ever gone to the postseason three straight seasons; that's reason enough to fear something will go wrong - but don't count on it.
