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The Forsberg 5

Print | Comments () Posted by Chris Forsberg, Boston.com Staff November 9, 2007 06:00 AM

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We've been munching on leftover Halloween candy for the last 10 days, but we saved a bunch of the Nestle product featured above for Week 10 because it's crunch time, baby! Sugary (and not-so-sweet) puns aside, we're jacked and pumped as we enter the nitty-gritty of the 2007 season.

We encourage everyone to hop over to our Prep Pick'em contest and compete against other area prognosticators in our yearlong challenge. Matthew T. of Columbus, Ohio has widened his lead atop the overall leaderboard with 82 correct picks (out of 108 total games) through nine weeks. This so-called expert sits three games back in second place, while Paul T. of Haverhill (77 correct) remains within striking distance.

On to this week's picks:

No. 15 Dennis-Yarmouth (9-0) over No. 16 Marshfield (8-1) -- We've been a bit skeptical of the Dolphins all year, then every week they go out and win. Even when we sat down to make this pick, we initially chose Marshfield to win. But the more we research this game, the more we're swayed towards D-Y.

Let's talk this one out:

Why we like D-Y: The Dolphins can put points on the board. Averaging a league-best 28.8 points per game, D-Y hung 35 points on the pair of Plymouth squads (North and South), both of whom are now averaging a shade over two touchdowns allowed per game this fall (a respectable number).

Why we like Marshfield: The 14 points the Rams allowed Plymouth North last week were the most coach Lou Silva's charges have given up this fall. If the offense could have generated another score, we're likely all about Marshfield this week. And yet, despite the fact that the Rams have allowed a mere 5.3 points per game this season, we're worried about them this week. Then again, the Rams have home-field advantage and something to prove after last week's loss

If D-Y puts points on the board early, it's going to be hard for Marshfield to keep up. The Rams don't want a shootout. Heck, they don't even want to draw guns against D-Y. If Marshfield can hold the Dolphins to two touchdowns or less, chances are Marshfield emerges with a pivotal win. We're just not sure that's going to happen.

D-Y has confidence. Marshfield might have a bit of doubt after last week. It's hard for us to imagine the Rams falling twice in two weeks, but someone's gotta endure a loss this week.

No. 11 Lincoln-Sudbury over No. 52 Westford Academy -- The fact that Wayland's spread offense gave Lincoln-Sudbury some fits leads us to believe Westford has a fighting chance, but Tied atop the Dual County League standings, L-S knows what's at stake here and needs to come out firing on all cylinders. The Warriors not only needs a win, they needs a big first-half to help its cause (see our post on the DCL tie-breaker below). Coach Tom Lopez's troops utilize a solid first-half to propel themselves to victory, while keeping an eye on the scoreboard and hoping that Acton-Boxboro can do the same.

No. 8 Chelmsford over No. 39 Dracut -- Everyone else in the MVC has endured a down week (or two), but the Lions have a chance to lock up the conference crown if they can avoid a letdown one more time. Dracut is a dangerous opponent, but Chelmsford proved it can outscore even a quality offense when it hung 43 points on Andover a couple weeks back. This defense is too good to allow a lot of points and, so long as Chelmsford continues to convert those pivotal third- and fourth-down situations that have made them so successful this season, then its reward is a worry-free Turkey Day against a faltering Billerica squad.

No. 30 Brighton over No. 44 Dorchester -- We've drawn some heat for having Brighton among the top 30 teams in our Top 100 poll. It prompted a discussion on our message boards on whether the Bengals could hang with teams in the upper divisions. Our take? While we don't think Brighton has the depth to hang with most of the teams in the top 20, we don't see any reason they wouldn't give a Cape Ann or Northeastern Conference foe a run for their money. There's definitely plenty of individual talent here and we think the Bengals could be competitive in Division 3 or 3A (maybe even higher). That individual talent is likely enough to help the Bengals post an undefeated regular season and maybe even get that Super Bowl crown that evaded them a year ago.

No. 3 BC High over No. 25 St. John's Prep -- Much like Xaverian last week, we think St. John's Prep is battle tested and has the potential to give the the folks from Morrissey Blvd. a run for their money. But, unlike Xaverian, we're not sold that the Prep's defense can keep the Eagles out of the end zone on a regular basis. BC High can see the finish line, but there's still two fairly large hurdles to clear before bringing the Catholic Conference title back to Dorchester.

Quick-picks

No. 29 Cambridge over No. 46 Waltham -- Despite a 7-2 mark, the Falcons have failed to live up to the lofty expectations that we're guilty of placing on them in the preseason. They've endured lumps against Catholic Conference foes (BC High, CM) and have struggled to put away teams that they should have seemingly handled with relative ease. Despite all that, here we are entering Week 10 and a win over Waltham gives the Falcons a shot at dethroning Everett on Thanksgiving (heck, even a loss here keeps a small window open). But we think the Falcons pull this one out and head into Thanksgiving Day inspired. The question is whether all this talent wil ever put it all together this season.

No. 42 Seekonk over No. 48 Blue HIlls -- One of the better lower-division matchups of the week. Seekonk carries in a spotless 8-0 record with five shutouts in its last eight games. Blue Hills -- albeit a lower-division foe -- will provide a nice test to see just how good these South Coast Conference champs are.

No. 45 Bishop Feehan over No. 65 Somerset -- The Shamrocks are quite talented, yet would be considered a playoff underdog in a stacked Division 2 that includes potential league champs in Mansfield (ranked 2nd) in the Globe Top 20), Woburn (No. 10), and Walpole (No. 13).

No. 33 Wilmington over No. 50 Pentucket -- But, you know, we wouldn't be surprised to see the two teams tie and really cause confusion atop the Cape Ann Large.

No. 35 East Boston over No. 56 Madison Park -- Given second life after the Charlestown loss (and subsequent forfeit), the Jets are not about to let a postseason opportunity slip away.

Last week: 8-2
Year to date: 65-27 (.707)

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Several reporters and editors contribute updates, news and analysis to the High School Sports Blog.

Bob Holmes: A Reading resident (Go Rockets!) and Boston College graduate, Holmes is the Boston Globe High School Sports Editor. We remind you now that his weekly picks are often made in jest so everyone just calm down when he picks against Everett for 11 straight weeks. Contact him at rholmes@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @GlobeHolmes.
Craig Larson: A native of West Springfield (Leo Durocher anyone? Tim Daggett?) and Curry College graduate (a proud Colonel!), Larson is the sports editor for the Globe's regional sections: South, West and North, as well as a frequent contributor on the college beat. Abington to Xaverian: it all starts with the schools. Have a compelling story idea? Contact him at clarson@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @GlobeLars.
Zuri Berry: Berry attended the same high school as sports legends O.J. Simpson and Joe DiMaggio. (Guess which one is his hero.) He's a South Boston resident (formerly of Eastie) and the editor of the High School Sports blog as well as the go-to-guy for everything high school sports on Boston.com. Contact him at zberry@boston.com and follow him on Twitter @ZuriBerry for all of the latest updates.

Also expect updates from correspondents Seth Lakso (boys basketball), Hannah Becker (girls basketball), Craig Forde (boys hockey), Liz Torres (girls hockey), Ryan Mooney and a host of others. To reach the high school sports correspondents and Globe editors, e-mail hssports@globe.com.