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The Forsberg 5

Print | Comments () Posted by Chris Forsberg, Boston.com Staff November 21, 2007 07:00 AM

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Welcome to a holiday version of the Forsberg 5 as we inch closer to kickoff on Thanksgiving Day. In the spirit of the holiday, we've got a jam-packed edition.

A reminder to hop over to our Beat Forsberg: The 2007 Thanksgiving Pick'em contest and enter for your chance to win a Sony PSP. All entrants who correctly pick more games than me will have their names run in this space following Turkey Day.

On to this week's picks:

Wayland over Weston, Acton-Boxboro, and Lincoln-Sudbury -- Okay, so Wayland can only technically move up one game in the win column on Turkey Day, and, technically, it could lose to Weston and it wouldn't really matter, but, before noon, coach Scott Parseghian and Co., should be celebrating once word filters in from Newton (where L-S meets Newton South) and Westford (where Acton-Boxboro tangles with Westford Academy) that his team's postseason pass has been stamped for the second time in two years.

Confused? Read our updated Dual County League tie-breaker breakdown to get started.

Wayland has to be considered in the driver's seat considering Lincoln-Sudbury needs little more than a field goal lead at halftime to ensure it won't be the team eliminated in the case of a three-way tie. Wayland won the head-to-head matchup between the teams and would advance to the playoffs if Acton-Boxboro is not ahead by more than 23 points over Westford Academy at the intermission of that Turkey Day tussle.

Despite recent struggles, we think Westford Academy -- particularly on its home field -- will come out fired up for this matchup and hellbent on playing spoiler. We think Acton-Boxboro is going to put points on the board, it simply might not be enough.

The other tough part for A-B is that, even if it scores the necessary points, it lost the head-to-head battle with Lincoln-Sudbury, so the Colonials need some serious help from Newton South (either a win or a small halftime differential) in order to extend their season.

A reminder to all Dual County League fans: Charge your cell phones tonight.

Everett over Cambridge -- In a season tainted by coaching turmoil and a failure to live up to lofty preseason expectations (something we're guilty of contributing to), Cambridge has still given itself a shot to achieve its chief goal by capturing a share of the Greater Boston League title and a spot in the postseason with a win on Thanksgiving Day. That said, we just don't see it happening. Everett is clearly the better team (no shame there, the Tide are seemingly a step ahead of everyone in the state) and barring a sudden ability to rally against all odds, we don't envision the Falcons making a game of this. Everett is too good to let all that hard work go to waste.

Xaverian over St. John's Prep -- Nothing on the line? Good luck selling that to these teams. One squad is going to endure a sub-.500 season, but 6-5 would seem to mean more to Xaverian. Why? The kids on Clapboardtree St. were 2-4 after falling to Everett in Week 6 (playing the Tide tougher than any other team this fall). But instead of rolling over, these young Hawks continued to fight. They took BC High to the wire, and took down a strong Catholic Memorial squad. A win on Turkey Day will go a long way towards building more momentum with eyes towards the 2008 season.

Weymouth over Walpole -- Two playoff-bound teams with nothing more at stake than pride. So why go with Weymouth? We think the Wildcats have one bit of extra motivation: perfection. A Turkey Day win sends Weymouth into the postseason with an 11-0 mark and plenty of confidence after enduring a season that saw it overcome both injuries and a number of close calls (but only to towns starting with the letter, "N," in Natick, Newton North, Needham). The Rebels, meanwhile, haven't played a game decided by less than three touchdowns in six weeks, so they could use a quality challenge heading into the postseason. Who calls off the dogs first? Hopefully no one. But if Weymouth can do what few others have done -- keep Ryan Izzo in check -- the Wildcats prevail.

Chelmsford over Billerica -- Hard to believe that these two teams came into last Thanksgiving with a combined eight wins. This year, they've each got at least that much on their own. And while there's nothing more than pride on the line (Chelmsford has already clinched the Merrimack Valley Conference title and the league's postseason berth), when has that ever stopped these two teams from going at one another like it's a Super Bowl? Remember last year's epic battle with the combined final score ranging over the century mark? Chelmsford doesn't get caught looking ahead to the postseason and pulls this one out with the defense that was decidedly missing from last year's game.

Marshfield over Duxbury -- Marshfield is potentially postseason bound, so we've got 10-minute quarters for this one. That's bad news for the Green Dragons, as, if Marshfield used up an entire 11-minute quarter with a 17-play drive to open the second half against Dennis-Yarmouth, we're thinking the Rams could easily make this a four-drive game if they continue to pound that vaunted rushing attack.

Mansfield over Foxboro -- We're fairly certain the Hornets' checklist for 2007 read something like this:

1) Beat Foxboro on Thanksgiving
2) Win the Hockomock League
3) Win a Super Bowl title

The fact that they started with No. 2 doesn't mean they don't plan on accomplishing No. 1. In fact, No. 1 might mean more to some than No. 2 or 3.

Melrose over Wakefield -- Key for Melrose is not letting that mental hurdle currently associated with Wakefield creep too deep into their minds tomorrow. Yes, Wakefield is a better team than its 3-7 record reveals, but Melrose is the better team overall.

Woburn over Winchester -- It just wouldn't be right to wait four long years for your first home game, and then not actually win that game. Right? Plus, if Melrose wins, Woburn would be in the running for the dubious distinction of, "best team not going to the postseason."

Bishop Fenwick over Austin Prep -- Bobby Tarr gave up the chance to earn the Division 3 scoring title in a classy Thanksgiving Day gesture that let then-senior Nathan Sherr claim the crown during last year. Good things come to those who wait. And Tarr, with an 82-point cushion over Holliston's Matt Bellomo heading into Turkey Day, could have taken the last four weeks off and still claimed that crown.

Holliston over Westwood -- The Panthers are still smarting from that 20-6 loss to Westwood last year and don't want that feeling again... especially not with a playoff ticket in its grasp.

Newburyport over Amesbury -- No quarterback? No problem. QB Joe Clancy is likely to be sidelined following a late-game altercation during a Week 10 battle that led to his ejection. His teammates pick up the slack and welcome him back for the postseason.

Georgetown over Manchester Essex -- But, honestly, if it's half as exciting as last year's thriller, we'll be happy.

For the rest of my picks, you can hop over to the Beat Forsberg: Thanksgiving 2007 Pick'em and take a peek at my ballot.

Enjoy the games and make sure to stick with Boston.com throughout the day for scores, updates, video highlights, and much, much more.

Last week: 8-2
Year to date: 73-29 (.716)

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Several reporters and editors contribute updates, news and analysis to the High School Sports Blog.

Bob Holmes: A Reading resident (Go Rockets!) and Boston College graduate, Holmes is the Boston Globe High School Sports Editor. We remind you now that his weekly picks are often made in jest so everyone just calm down when he picks against Everett for 11 straight weeks. Contact him at rholmes@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @GlobeHolmes.
Craig Larson: A native of West Springfield (Leo Durocher anyone? Tim Daggett?) and Curry College graduate (a proud Colonel!), Larson is the sports editor for the Globe's regional sections: South, West and North, as well as a frequent contributor on the college beat. Abington to Xaverian: it all starts with the schools. Have a compelling story idea? Contact him at clarson@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @GlobeLars.
Zuri Berry: Berry attended the same high school as sports legends O.J. Simpson and Joe DiMaggio. (Guess which one is his hero.) He's a South Boston resident (formerly of Eastie) and the editor of the High School Sports blog as well as the go-to-guy for everything high school sports on Boston.com. Contact him at zberry@boston.com and follow him on Twitter @ZuriBerry for all of the latest updates.

Also expect updates from correspondents Seth Lakso (boys basketball), Hannah Becker (girls basketball), Craig Forde (boys hockey), Liz Torres (girls hockey), Ryan Mooney and a host of others. To reach the high school sports correspondents and Globe editors, e-mail hssports@globe.com.