US hopes to change luck vs. Mexico

“We know the history,’’ said goalkeeper Tim Howard. “We’re well aware of it.’’

Twenty-three visits south of the border. Twenty-two losses and one draw.

But history may well change this afternoon, when the Americans take on Los Tricolores at Mexico City in a crucial World Cup qualifying match inside mammoth Estadio Azteca, with its 100,000 impassioned spectators, 7,200-foot altitude, and smoggy air.

The US, which used its JVs in the 5-0 beatdown from its neighbors in last month’s Gold Cup final at the Meadowlands, is bringing the same group that reached the Confederations Cup final in June by blanking Egypt and Spain.

“We’re confident that we can play with any team in the world,’’ said US star Landon Donovan. “And it’s no longer good enough to hope for one point on the road.’’

Mexico, which has lost three of its five matches in the final round, has rarely looked so vulnerable. The hosts, sitting fourth in the race for the three guaranteed spots in the North/Central America-Caribbean region, have lost only one home Cup qualifier at Azteca (to Costa Rica in 2001) and they have to win this one if they want to earn a ticket to next summer’s tournament in South Africa, because they’ve been hopeless on the road.

The Americans, who shut out their neighbors in their February meeting in Columbus, Ohio, don’t need a victory today. They’re comfortably ensconced in second place, two points behind Costa Rica, and need only a win in their final two at home (where they’ve lost one Cup qualifier since 1985) to book a sixth straight appearance.

The surprise so far has been Honduras, which hasn’t qualified since 1982 but is in third place with its next two matches at home. If the Catrachos, who already have beaten Mexico, can even finish fourth, they’ll earn a playoff date with South America’s fifth-place team. A look at the other five continental races:

■ South America (four berths; fifth-place team plays fourth-place CONCACAF team for another spot): Argentina watching the Cup on TV? It could happen. Even Diego Maradona stepping in as coach hasn’t produced a miracle for the two-time champs, who are in fourth place with just four matches to go after winning only 6 of 14. Odds are that the Albiceleste will qualify, as they have every time since 1970, but they may have to beat Brazil to do it. Despite six draws, four of them scoreless, the Brazilians are atop the pile and should stay there. As Paraguay is slumping, Chile is on the rise and should make it for the first time since 1998. Odd team out could be Ecuador.

■ Europe (13 berths; nine group winners plus four from playoffs): Both Irish teams never have qualified for the Cup, but it could happen this time. The Republic, after drawing at Italy, is sitting in second place in its group and at least should make it to a playoff. Northern Ireland, last seen in 1986, has rebounded from an 0-2-1 start and is second behind Slovakia. Though several of the usual powers are already in (the Netherlands) or might as well be (England and Spain), others have work to do. Germany has to win at Russia to avoid a playoff. France, which lost the 2006 final to Italy in a shootout, may not be able to catch Serbia-Montenegro. The Italians can’t afford any more home slippage. It’s likely too late for Portugal, which reached the semis last time but is stuck behind Denmark and Hungary after two scoreless draws. Hurting, too, are the Czechs, who have six goals in six matches.

■ Africa (five berths plus host South Africa): The quadrennial churn is on again. Four years ago, four newbies qualified. Two of them - Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire - are looking solid for a return trip. But Angola didn’t advance to the final round and Togo is looking shaky. Algeria is almost assured of a spot, and Nigeria likely will earn one by beating Tunisia at home, where the Super Eagles are unbeaten with a plus-10 goal differential since qualifying began. The fresh face this time is Gabon, which is unbeaten in a brutal group that includes Morocco, Cameroon, and Togo.

■ Asia (four berths; third-place teams play off with winner facing New Zealand for another spot): For the first time, both Koreas qualified, despite playing in the same group. For the Democratic People’s Republic, it’ll be the first trip since 1966, when the North reached the quarterfinals by ousting Italy. The Australians, who jumped continents after playing in Oceania, easily earned consecutive tickets after missing out for 32 years, and the Japanese qualified for the fourth straight time. Iran missed out despite losing only one match, and Saudi Arabia, which has played in every tournament since 1990, will have to beat Bahrain in a playoff for the right to compete in a second playoff.

■ Oceania (plays fifth-place Asian team for berth): New Zealand, which hasn’t qualified since 1982, survived a shocking opening loss to Fiji to become the island king. The question now is whether the Kiwis can master the desert and, most likely, the Saudis.

John Powers can be reached at jpowers@globe.com.