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Revs still in the hunt

Posted by Julian Cardillo  October 15, 2013 03:06 PM

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With a win against Montreal over the weekend, the Revolution greatly revived their playoff hopes. They were also helped in part by Philadelphia's tie to DC United.

As of now, Montreal, Philadelphia, and Chicago are all tied for fourth place in the Eastern Conference with 46 points. The Revolution sit one point behind that trio, in seventh place. But the difference is so small that with just two games left in the season, the Revolution's playoff hopes are relatively high despite currently being on the outside looking in.

Winning Saturday's home finale versus Columbus, and then flying to Columbus and collecting a consecutive victory the following weekend, might do the trick for the Revolution. According to the website Sports Club Stats, the Revolution have a 97.7 percent chance of making the playoffs if they sweep Columbus.

That statistic takes into account the schedule difficulty for Philadelphia, Chicago, and Montreal.

Montreal is currently fourth in the conference because of number of wins and goal differential, but could fall out of playoff position with a difficult match at Los Angeles on Wednesday night. They then have a quick turnaround, as they fly back to Quebec to play Philadelphia on Saturday. Montreal rounds out the season at Toronto.

The Impact is winless in its last five while Los Angeles have only lost twice at home all season. Meanwhile, the Revolution should hope for a draw between Montreal and Philadelphia.

Fifth place Chicago plays Toronto this weekend at home before taking on the Red Bulls in New York to finish off the season. The Revolution will hope for Chicago to lose both games, though they have a definite edge against Toronto. One loss could be devastating to the Fire.

Then, there's Philadelphia. If they tie Montreal, that's potentially just two points for the Revolution make-up. But there is a realistic chance that Philadelphia win their last game, a home tilt versus Sporting Kansas City.

If the Revolution were to bet on the standings, results would look like this:

Montreal vs Philadelphia DRAW
Philadelphia vs Kansas City PHI LOSES
Chicago vs Toronto CHI WINS
Chicago vs New York CHI LOSES
Montreal vs Los Angeles MTL LOSES
Montreal vs Toronto MTL WINS
Philadelphia vs Kansas City PHI LOSES

If those results were to occur, and the Revolution were to win their final two games, the standings would look like this:

4. New England- 51 points
5. Montreal- 50 points
6. Chicago- 49 points
7. Philadelphia- 47 points

These standings are predicated on there being no upsets. Also, each of these teams still has a shot at third place, too, but would likely need Houston to lose both of its final games.

The Revolution have clinched playoff berths with late season runs before. Most notable were seasons 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2009. Those seasons were ended with either the Revolution winning out their remaining games in the Fall or securing a playoff berth in the last game of the season.

If you want to reach Julian email him at julianccardillo@gmail.com and follow him on twitter @juliancardillo

This blog is not written or edited by Boston.com or the Boston Globe.
The author is solely responsible for the content.

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About Corner Kicks: Julian Cardillo offers insight and analysis about the New England Revolution as well as European and international soccer.

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