A pack of possibilities here

A Seoul man led the parade down Boylston Street five years ago. An Ethiopian busted five Kenyan tickers on Heartbreak Hill last April. Could this be the time when a Yankee Doodle Dandy finally wins here on Patriots Day?

''I definitely feel that sense of, finally, we're at a point where this could happen," said Alan Culpepper, who ran down the previous two champions last year when he finished fourth, the best performance by a US entrant in the Boston Marathon in 18 years.

Not since Greg Meyer won in 1983 has a homeboy claimed the world's most fabled road race, but this may be the best chance since the organizers began awarding prize money in 1986. Besides Culpepper, there's Olympic silver medalist Meb Keflezighi, plus Brian Sell, the top US finisher (ninth) at last year's world championships in Helsinki. ''You watched Meb in New York last year," said Culpepper. ''He was in the hunt. And I was in the race here. I was part of the whole scene."

Not that it will be easy, with former champions Timothy Cherigat and Robert Kipkoech Cheruiyot, defender Hailu Negussie, and runner-up Wilson Onsare in the field, plus former Olympic medalist Tesfaye Tola.

''They did a good job of bringing in a great field," said Keflezighi, who's making his Boston debut after finishing twice in the top three in New York. ''They could have made it easier if they just wanted an American to win it, but they didn't."

Once four-time champion Catherine Ndereba opted not to defend and Ethiopian aces Derartu Tulu (stomach flu) and Elfenesh Alemu (knee injury) withdrew, the women's race became decidedly simpler. Japan's Reiko Tosa and Latvia's Jelena Prokopcuka figure to go to the front early and stay there, although they'll have an elite handful of traveling partners (Serbia's Olivera Jevtic, Italy's Bruna Genovese, and Kenya's Rita Jeptoo) not far behind. ''I like to lead," said Tosa, who'd be the first Japanese woman to win here. ''Because it feels good to be in the front."

Prokopcuka, who won at Osaka and New York last year, doesn't mind coming out of the passing lane to win and she doesn't mind a couple of hours of up-and-down labor. ''A lot of runners don't like hills, so they say no Boston," said Prokopcuka, who finished fourth here in 2004. ''I like hills."

The hills were where the men's race was decided last year, when Negussie dashed away from his Kenyan neighbors on Heartbreak and ended up winning by 36 seconds to become the first Ethiopian victor in 16 years. ''The field is going to be strong," acknowledged Negussie, who has only the seventh-fastest personal best (2:08:16) in the bunch. ''But I'm ready for the challenge. It's going to be a good race."

Last year, Negussie ran a smart, tactical race on a warm day, staying in contact with the leaders without running himself dry, then letting loose on the final downhill and the Brighton flats. But with today's temperatures predicted to be in the low 50s with some cloud cover, he's likely to have plenty of company heading toward Boston College.

''The race will be very challenging," said Onsare. ''I think that the pack will stay together longer, because almost everyone has experience."

The Kenyans have more than anybody -- Cherigat will be running Boston for the fifth time, Cheruiyot for the fourth. And after watching Negussie snatch the laurel wreath last year in the slowest winning time (2:11:45) since 1987, they're powerfully motivated to regain their primacy. ''We do not feel an enmity," said Onsare. ''But most of the time Kenyans have been winning."

As in 13 of the last 15 times here, including 10 in a row until South Korea's Lee Bong-Ju staked his claim in 2001. That's how it used to be for the Yanks, who won seven out of nine between 1975 and 1983. That was when Boston was virtually an intramural championship, though, graced by the occasional Japanese visitor or British Commonwealth cousin. When Meyer won 23 years ago, there was only one foreigner (a Canadian) among the top 10.

Once prize money was on the line ($100,000 for today's victor, plus 25 points toward the new World Marathon Majors Series), everything changed for Uncle Sam's nephews. If one of them wins today, it'll be an extraordinary achievement.

''It's not an easy day," Keflezighi said. ''It's going to be challenging, but that's what we want. If we win, we want to do it against the best."