You're not going to believe this, but I swear it's as accurate as the suggestion that Jay-Z looks like Dwight Gooden's stunt double:

The hot-off-the-presses 2010 Bill James Handbook, which I'm holding in my dirty paws right now, projects the recently crowned World Champions to, well, stink next year, collapsing so grotesquely that they'll finish -- get this -- 39-123. Yup, the 2010 Yankees will be the butt of jokes even for the 1962 Mets.

True story. Mark Teixeira will mysteriously morph into the new Marv Throneberry, 38-year-old Jorge Posada will channel Choo Choo Coleman, and Derek Jeter's collapse will be so sudden and severe that he'll catch himself wondering how Elio Chacon made it look so easy.

Most improbably of all, Mariano Rivera will actually get old.

(Waiting . . .)

(Savoring the daydream. . .)

(Waiting one more beat . . .)

Oh, all right, I made that up. The folks at Baseball Info Solutions, the numbers-crunching masterminds behind the Handbook, don't even do standings projections, at least in a conventional manner. But for a Sox fan, it was fun to ponder, and certainly better than the reality:

These Yankees are a beast, having gone 94-44 after a slow start to breeze to a championship that we all suspected might be inevitable once their lineup featuring seven present or future All-Stars got rolling in midsummer. That 8-0 start for the Sox against their rival feels like seasons ago.

Credit from this corner is a few days overdue, so here goes: Congratulations to the Yankees and their obnox . . .er, loyal fans. The best team won, and we'll never complain too loudly when that happens, even if there is absolutely no denying that they are the best team money could buy. Guess it was Giambi and Mussina's fault after all.

(You know, re-reading that, it really wasn't as gracious as it sounded in my head.)

Anyway, back to the point -- and yes, there is one today. As I mentioned, the annual Bill James Handbook is out, and it's arrival in the mailbox and the immediate aftermath is one of the finest hours -- make that roughly three of the finest hours -- in a baseball nerdle's year. There is one small disappointment this year -- James has moved one of my favorite features, the always insightful "Young Player Index" from this book to The Bill James Gold Mine, which I'm sure I'll also pick up. Nevertheless, the book is a treasure trove of fascinating insight and data, and this remains perhaps my favorite recurring columns to write each year.

Let's start out the way we always do -- with a look at some of the Handbook's projections for Sox hitters and pitchers in 2010. For the fun of it -- and for some perspective -- we're also including last year's projections, as well each player's actual 2009 numbers.

SELECTED RED SOX HITTERS . . .
David Ortiz
2009 BJH projection: .288 average, 37 homers, 119 RBIs, .966 OPS
2009 reality: .238, 28, 99, .794
2010 BJH projection: .264, 29, 99, .887

Jacoby Ellsbury
2009 BJH projection: .302, 9, 53, .783
2009 reality: .301, 8, 60, .770
2010 BJH projection: .302, 9, 62, .780

Dustin Pedroia
2009 BJH projection: .315, 15, 78, .848
2009 reality: .296, 15, 72, .819
2010 BJH projection: .307, 15, 75, .843

Jason Bay
2009 BJH projection: .280, 30, 102, .881
2009 reality: .267, 36, 119, .921
2010 BJH projection: .268, 32, 103, .878

Jason Varitek
2009 BJH projection: .238, 13, 52, .726
2009 reality: .209, 14, 51, .703
2010 BJH projection: .229, 9, 34, .720

Mike Lowell
2009 BJH projection: .277, 16, 75, .791
2009 reality: .290, 17, 75, .811
2010 BJH projection: .278, 19, 84, .795

Jeremy Hermida
2009 BJH projection: .275, 20, 72, .822
2009 reality: .259, 13, 47, .740
2010 BJH projection: .267, 20, 73, .796

. . . AND A FEW SOX PITCHERS
Josh Beckett
2009 BJH projection: 13 wins, 8 losses, 3.57 ERA, 189 innings
2009 reality: 17-6, 3.86, 212.1 IP
2010 BJH projection: 15-9, 3.62, 221 IP

Jon Lester
2009 BJH projection: 12-11, 4.02, 212 IP
2009 reality: 15-8, 3.41, 203.1 IP
2010 BJH projection: 13-10, 3.84, 206 IP

Daisuke Matsuzaka
2009 BJH projection: 12-8, 3.58, 184 IP
2009 reality: 4-6, 5.76, 59.1 IP
2010 BJH projection: 12-10, 4.02, 190 IP

Clay Buchholz
2009 BJH projection: None. Not enough data from his lost 2008 season, I assume.
2009 reality: 7-4, 4.21, 92 IP
2010 BJH projection: 10-8, 3.91, 161 IP

PROJECTIONS FOR OTHER PERSONS OF INTEREST
Johnny Damon: .278, 17, 70, .786
Adrian Gonzalez: .279, 35, 106, .888
Matt Holliday: .316, 27, 109, .922
Josh Willingham: .260, 25, 78, .845
Hideki Matsui: .282, 23, 88, .842
Manny Ramirez: .296, 30, 101, .943
Pedro Martinez: 6-4, 3.54, 89 IP, 88 Ks
John Smoltz: 3-2, 3.42 ERA, 50 IP
Felix Hernandez: 14-12, 3.37, 235 IP
Roy Halladay: 17-10, 3.23, 240 IP

NOTES SCRIBBLED IN THE MARGINS
Interesting how the Verducci Effect played out this season -- most notably, how Jon Lester proved an exception, though some of that may have to do with his unusual career path. Lester was the No. 1 candidate for breakdown or regression on this year's list, having thrown 83 more innings in 2008 than during any other season of his career. Yet there he was in 2009, chugging along as a workhorse and legitimate ace for the Red Sox, becoming a more dominant pitcher than he has ever been. He threw seven fewer regular-season innings yet whiffed 73 more batters (225 in 203 innings) than in '08. But that's not to say the Verducci Effect has been proven a myth. No. 2 on the list: Cole Hamels . . . The numbers for Manny and Papi appear to be evidence that the projections are slow to foresee an aging player's slippage or full-out collapse. Give me the under on the suggestion that they'll hit 59 homers between them in '10. . . If Matt Holliday were guaranteed to put up those projected numbers for the Red Sox, I'd have no problem if Theo Epstein opted to throw a nine-figure offer his way. But six full years into his career, I'm still not sure whether his excellent numbers are due to his talent and work ethic or due to playing half of his home games at Coors Field, hitting behind Albert Pujols for a half-season, and so on . . . Might have mentioned this in my chat this week, but Bay, Holliday, and Hideki Matsui are all high on each others' similarity scores on baseball-reference.com. I realize Matsui is several years older than both Holliday and Bay, but I said it before his performance in the World Series: He wouldn't be the worst one- or two-year solution in left field. As Pedro can attest, he's still a heck of a hitter . . . I realize the projections are in line with his usual underachievement, but I still love the Jeremy Hermida deal. He still hasn't entered his prime seasons, he's had some success (albeit inconsistent), he has the talent to be a star (he was the Marlins' top prospect in 2006 -- ahead of Hanley Ramirez -- and was considered so can't-miss that he was the Baseball America Prospect Handbook's cover boy. He is precisely the kind of player you take a gamble on -- a talented kid possibly in need of a change of scenery -- because they payoff could be huge . . . The BJH essentially nailed its '09 projection for Ellsbury, and expects a very similar season again in '10. It's tempting to consider this more evidence that the player we see right now is the player he's going to be through his prime, since he'll be 27 next September and maybe he ain't that young anymore. Don't know about you, but I'm OK with what he is, though I do wish he'd bunt more to utilize those jets . . . If Smoltz has a 3.49 ERA next year, then I'm going to assume the Senior League has been revived.

OTHER BLOOPS AND BLEEDERS
Any value Mike Lowell had last season was tied entirely to his hitting: The Red Sox' third baseman rates as the second-worst baserunner in the American League (congratulations for that dubious honor, Juan Rivera), and ranked as the worst defender at his position in terms of Runs Saved at minus-18. You'll have to buy the book to get both formulas' explanation, but suffice to say that after watching Lowell admirably and gamely trying to play on a surgically repaired hip, we still have no qualms with either of these statistical conclusions.

The Red Sox did not put their gloves to optimal use last season: In the balloting for the "Fielding Bible" awards, in which 10 progressive and knowledgeable voters -- including the admired-around-here likes of Rob Neyer and Joe Posnanski -- pick the best defender at each position in the major leagues. Among Red Sox, Kevin Youkilis was second to Albert Pujols at first base, Dustin Pedroia was fourth at second base, and Jason Bay was 10th among left fielders despite appearing on just four ballots. Also, Varitek was 11th among catchers, one spot and one vote higher than Pudge Rodriguez. Then there are the disses. Alex Gonzalez was 19th at shortstop, receiving one vote (Derek Jeter and Hanley Ramirez were tied for 17th, with three votes each); Jacoby Ellsbury did not collect a single vote in center field; and Lowell did not get even one mercy vote at third.

Manny who? Maybe some of us didn't always notice, but the Red Sox really did have one of the most productive outfields in baseball last season. Jason Bay was tops among AL left fielders in OPS (.925), he was tied for fourth with A-Rod in at-bats per home run (14.8), and tied teammate Victor Martinez for sixth in the AL with a .533 batting average with the bases loaded. We know about Jacoby Ellsbury's feats on the basepaths, but he also led the league in triples (10) and was fourth in singles (143), which 60 or so times ended up the rough equivalent of a double a few pitches later. And the much-maligned J.D. Drew led all AL right fielders in OPS (.911) and had the highest OPS in the league in the second half (.999). It's not exactly Rice-Lynn-Dewey material, but all in all, this trio was pretty damn good.

Don't think we can say two kind, tangible things about Jason Varitek's performance last season? Oh, yeah? Well, here you go: 1) He was the best catcher in baseball at blocking "bad" pitches this season, stopping 374 of 390 pitches he had to block. 2) He had a 1.044 OPS when hitting a slider. Of course, he was looking fastball, but still.

Think the White Sox would take Brian Anderson for him? It wasn't always evident during his short time here, but Mark Kotsay ranks as one of the most successful pinch-hitters in the history of baseball, batting .342 with a .562 slugging percentage in his career. Who knew?

Yo Derek Jeter, I'm really happy for you, I'm gonna let you finish, but A-Rod is one of the best players of all time. Of all time!: It remains to be seen how a connection to steroids will affect current players' Hall of Fame chances, but I tend to think it will essentially be shrugged off as a part of this generation's culture by the time A-Rod is eligible for Cooperstown. But even if his legacy remains damaged to some degree, barring a career-altering injury, A-Rod is undoubtedly going to rank as one of the dozen or so finest players ever. While Jeter ranks the highest among current players with a 96-percent chance of getting 3,000 hits -- he has 2,747 right now, his best old ex-friend A-Rod is right behind him with an 89-percent chance of reaching the milestone . . . and he has a decent shot at some even more impressive feats. He has a 40-percent chance at the home run record (the number is now 762, in case you forgot), a 34-percent chance at setting the all-time RBI record (2,297, still owned by Hammerin' Hank), and a 22-percent chance at breaking Rickey Henderson's runs record (2,295). By the way, that the runs and RBI records are within two runs of each other is just a great piece of baseball symmetry, isn't it?

Here's the link to this week's media column, which focuses on The Sports Hub's significant gains in the ratings in October, as well as WEEI holding steady as usual near the top. Pretty compelling rivalry developing here, and much sooner than expected. One other thing: I didn't report on the nighttime ratings -- in which WEEI soundly beat The Sports Hub -- because I didn't have the specific info on the ratings for Red Sox and Celtics games compared to the Planet Mikey ratings, and it seemed to me that was rather relevant info. Should have a better feel for how that is going next month.

As for other matters . . . got a baseball column in mind for over the weekend, one of my favorites to write each year. So stay tuned for that. I'm hoping to hammer it out tomorrow night. And as always, thanks for your patience. I get a lot of e-mail and correspondence from readers saying they wish I wrote here more often. I appreciate it more than you or Gus Williams know.

During our strangely meta noon chat, we discussed the beginning of the Jeremy Hermida era, whether Mariano Rivera ever plans on aging, and how bizarre it is to be answering questions about "The Office" while John Krasinski is chatting 20 feet away. Click on the "replay" button to read the transcript.

The scene felt almost surreal in its familiarity.

There was Pedro Martinez, looking physically small on the mound, but wearing that cold-eyed mask of determination as he stood tall in enemy territory.

(Getty Images Photo/Jim McIsaac)

And there, in the pivotal seventh inning, was Charlie Manuel, the Phillies' affable goof of a manager, suddenly channeling his friend and fellow strategic simpleton, Grady Little. Who needs logic and statistics when you have good 'ol gut instinct?

Like Little, who once made an inexplicable decision in a crucial situation that in no way requires a rehash here, Manuel last night left Pedro on the mound beyond the well-established 100-pitch expiration date on his right arm.

The consequences were not as grave as in 2003 -- at least Manuel had the good sense to pull Martinez after pair of hits, and the Phillies' bullpen escaped with the game still within reach. But some similarities were unavoidable, right down to the Yankees' winning blueprint for how they usually overcame (and aggravated) Pedro during his prime: shut down the other offense, take a patient approach to build up his pitch count, chip away for a run or two, maybe flick a cheapo homer to right field, and then turn the ball over to the ageless Mr. Rivera.

Little, upon his inevitable dismissal in the aftermath of his blunder, warned us that he was a ghost fully capable of haunting. Apparently, whispering "Leave him in, Charlie. It's Pedro!" was the best he could do.

Of course, Red Sox fans were not at all haunted by last night's turn of events. Those days, like the Fox-mandated reminders of Bucky and the Babe, are gone, and good riddance. There was no stirring of the angst, which has been rendered stagnant by so many good times since 2004. While Pedro belongs to Boston, he is with Philadelphia, and the what-if? disappointment of defeat in a winnable game lingers with them today, not us.

But for those of us who admired and were awed by Pedro during his seven magnificent seasons with the Red Sox. . . for those of us who make the argument that he's in the argument as the greatest pitcher of all time . . . for those of us who are still and will always be sentimental for that one day in five during the summer when the Dominican flags were flying and the white and red K cards dotted the green bleacher wall and anything up to and including perfection seemed possible . . . let's just say it was just fun to hang on every pitch of a Pedro start again. One more time for all the old times, you know?

The result was unsatisfying -- oh, wouldn't it have been sweet to monitor the panic from afar as the Yankees headed to Philly in an 0-2 hole? -- but the performance itself was tremendously fulfilling. Pedro is 38 years old now. His fastball long ago went to live on ESPN Classic. He went to the mound last night armed with John Burkett's repertoire, and his own uncommon abundance of pride, intelligence, guile and charisma. It was a treat to watch him trade pitches with A.J. Burnett, a gifted, enigmatic flake who was at his breathtaking best for seven innings last night. He was overpowering and untouchable, and his performance must have, if only in a fleeting moment, reminded Pedro of when his arm was stocked with lightning bolts and a batter's only hope was fortuitous timing.

The best moment? For a while, that seemed obvious: The quick-pitch of Derek Jeter for strike three while he was going through his trademark time-out-no-not-really-I'm-just-raising-my-arm-because-I'm-cool-like-that routine in the batter's box. I'd like to think Pedro got the thought to try it based on his institutional knowledge of the Yankees gained from his time with the Sox. Yep, that just happened. Take a seat, Captain. How I would have loved to have heard the muttered comments in the Yankees dugout after that trick.

Yet outwitting Jeter was only the first runner-up. The best moment, the one that made the night even as the Fox camera cut away from it too soon, came after Pedro's work was done. As he walked slowly off the mound, the jeers of the jackals -- standing, as always -- ringing in his ears, he raised his head and surveyed the scene, almost as if he was trying to look every last one of his hecklers in the eyes. Pedro has always worn the emotion of the situation on his face, and he could not mask it this time, either. You could see the competitor in him was crushed.

Then, in a flash, his expression changed. He smiled. And he kept smiling. He later explained why, but as the scene unfolded in real time, it struck us as classic, defiant Pedro, staring down adversity, then smiling in its face.

He appreciated the significance of the night, the ballgame, his performance. As always, Pedro understood.

And that's when the truth hit you. If Yankees fans had any collective appreciation of what they had just witnessed, the same sense for time and place that their aging nemesis did, those chants, well, they might just have turned to cheers.

This week's media column, in which we catch up with Martha's Vineyard native and ESPN rising star Ryen Russillo, can be found right here.

One thing I wished I'd emphasized more on in the piece -- he'd have been an ideal building block for The Sports Hub had the station launched a year or two ago, before he caught his break in Bristol.

As for Bake McBride here? He's got nothing to do with anything. But you probably knew that already.