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Texans-Patriots won't be tough to watch

  January 7, 2013 02:41 AM

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I wouldn't go so far as to suggest it's the best weekend of the sports year -- that designation is reserved for that little basketball tournament in March when the field pares to 16 -- but considering how much collective anticipation NFL fans understandably shared for the just-concluded four-game wild-card round, it's fair to suggest in retrospect that it was a bit of a letdown, no?

The Packers and Ravens cruised to uneventful, apparently inevitable victories past overmatched opponents. The Texans' win over the Bengals wasn't much better, though an on-target deep ball or two from Andy Dalton might have changed that. And while the Redskins-Seahawks matchup lived up to the billing as the weekend's must-see matchup for a while, only Seattle fans and the misguided stragglers who thought Pete Carroll was a decent coach here enjoyed how it played out. The rest of us were left with the lousy feeling of wondering whether Robert Griffin III's knee and Mike Shanahan's soul were in equal tatters.

Any hope for four suspenseful games gave way to scattered random questions. Who graduated first from the Elaine Benes School of Dance, Ray Lewis or Pitbull?

What's in that little shed RGIII retreated to when he was hurt or injured or however his balky knee was classified early in the game?

How could the at least adequate Brian Hoyer spent so much of the season waiting for a roster spot to open up when the likes of Joe Webb, a one-man Spergon Wynn tribute band, were one injury from a starting role?

Of course, this weekend's unfulfilled expectations don't temper the enthusiasm for what's ahead, nor should they. Packers-Niners, Falcons-Seahawks, and Ravens-Broncos are all fascinating showdowns that could play out with countless plot twists and outcomes, and around here we get to shift our football focus back to the rested Patriots, who will host the Texans Sunday, 34 days after figuratively repossessing their lettermen jackets with a 42-14 victory on "Monday Night Football" that proved pivotal in determining the seeding in the AFC.

Personally, I was hoping the Ravens would end up as the Patriots' divisional playoff foe, if only for the opportunity to watch them end the mythical career -- emphasis on myth -- of Ray Lewis, a wonderful player for several years but one of the most unaccountable narcissists in league history. Gillette would have been a fine place to end the shameful hagiography.

But a rematch with the Texans will have to do, and the story lines are interesting if easily conjured. After beginning the season 11-1, Houston lost three of its final four games to punt away a bye, the trip to Foxborough a reminder of one opportunity already muffed. If there's any question about the Patriots being favored by 9.5 points, keep in mind that in the first meeting they were up 21 in the first half and glided from there -- without Rob Gronkowski.

Revenge will be an obvious motivator for the Texans, but let's not confuse them with the 2010 Jets, who avenged a 45-3 late-season loss to the Patriots by ending their season with a 28-21 victory in the divisional round a little more than a month later. Those Jets were tougher and more talented than the punch line they have become. Given the stakes, that loss is worth a small reminder, however, and Bill Belichick acknowledged during a conference call over the weekend that what happened that season has been talked about "many, many times." I recommend sparing yourself from the many, many other reminders on sports radio this week.

If there's a playoff opponent in recent Patriots history of which the Texans are reminiscent, it's probably the 2006 or '07 San Diego Chargers. The '06 team went 14-2, racked up 492 points, lost to the Patriots in the divisional round (see: Troy Brown vs. Marlon McCree), and like these Texans, had Wade Phillips as a defensive coordinator. The '07 team is a better comp even though Phillips had moved on -- they went 11-5, scored 412 points (two fewer than this year's Texans team) and had extraordinary talent that wasn't good enough to overcome the 17-0 Patriots in the AFC Championship game.

They were also ... well, I'm reluctant to call any NFL player or team soft, especially in the hours after a player like RGIII is convinced it's part of the job requirement to play through an injury that robbed him of a large portion of his skill. So let's put it this way. The Texans weren't ready for prime-time before, but I seriously doubt we'll see Arian Foster bundled up in a giant parka on the sidelines, LaDainian Tomlinson-style, while his team forges on without him.

fosterarianfinn127.jpgIf the Texans are going to give a good accounting in their latest Biggest Game In Franchise History, their superstars must lead them. Defensive player of the year shoo-in J.J. Watt's motor is permanently stuck on overdrive, and Foster, who had just 46 yards against the Patriots, ran for 140 against the Bengals. Cincinnati would be wise to put the ball in his hands 30-plus times and see where he can take them.

The Texans may not be as tough or tested as the Patriots, but their victory over the Bengals showed at least some measure of fortitude. Still, it was the Bengals, who from what I gather haven't won a playoff game since Boobie Clark was their feature back. The Texans have earned a couple of stripes, but can they gain full redemption on the same field where it took a turn for the worse just a month ago? Knowing what we think we know about them -- and what we do know about the Patriots -- let's just say this: letterman jackets can be bought. But banners, they have to be earned.

Bobby Valentine joins NBC Sports Radio

  January 7, 2013 01:16 AM

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During the final weeks of his lone, tumultuous season as Red Sox manager, Bobby Valentine semi-jokingly offered to punch WEEI host Glenn Ordway "right the mouth" for suggesting he'd given up on the season.

Three months after Valentine was fired following 69 wins, 93 losses, and countless controversies as the Red Sox manager, he's gone from sparring -- verbally, that is -- with sports radio hosts to becoming one.

NBC Sports Group will announce Monday that Bobby Valentine is joining the NBC Sports Radio roster. He will host his own daily sports-talk program on the network, heard in Boston on 1510 AM, beginning in April. In the interim, he will make weekly call-ins to network affiliates.

The news of Valentine's new job was first reported by Sports Illustrated's Richard Deitsch.

“I think in my years here on earth, I have let people know I have an opinion about pretty much everything,” Valentine told Sports Illustrated. “I think I will remain true to that.”

The groundwork for Valentine to join NBC Sports Radio was laid less than three weeks after he was fired by the Red Sox. During an interview with "Costas Tonight" host Bob Costas that was recorded October 22 and aired the next day -- an interview that generated more controversy when Valentine said injured designated hitter David Ortiz "decided not to play anymore" after the Red Sox' trade with the Dodgers in late August -- Valentine was approached by a network executive with the idea of hosting his own show.

Given the disdain he showed for the genre during many of his weekly appearances on WEEI last season -- including the aforementioned contentious back-and-forth with Glenn Ordway in September -- the sports-radio path might seem a surprise.

But Valentine has extensive electronic media experience, most recently as an analyst for ESPN's "Sunday Night Baseball" before taking the Red Sox job. With ESPN lukewarm at best about any possibility of bringing him back, it's a reasonable opportunity, and one he said he's looking forward to approaching with candor.

"If I have a fault, it's that I tell the truth,'' he told Sports Illustrated. "You can't dictate to the customer what they want and I think a good host feels his audience and understands what they want and need and tries to provide it."

Valentine does have a couple of crucial characteristics of sports-talk host. He can talk a good game, and he's willing to defend his point of view.

“I think the only time I had a problem with someone on the other side of the microphone is when they crossed over the personal line or they were totally incorrect in whatever they were representing,'' he said. "I am going to try and not get personal. And I’m also going to try to be correct as often as possible.”

Elaborating on the Red Sox' upgrade

  January 4, 2013 10:34 AM

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After I wrote earlier this week that the Red Sox might be better than you think -- right, the one headlined "Red Sox might be better than you think'' -- the response was, well, let's call it predictably divided. Maybe 40 percent of the e-mailers and Twitterati had some level of optimism for the '13 Sox.

The rest suggested, some more creatively than others, that I was seeing things through carmine-colored glasses. Which is cool. My optimism is genuine and rooted in research and reason, and no, I certainly do not mind that it stands out against the backdrop of frequent, lucrative half-contrived Chicken Little caterwauling around here.

But I do also feel like further elaboration may be required to explain why I believe, with sincerity and logic, that the Red Sox will be a much better team this season. (Go ahead, I'll wait while you insert the usual caveat about unforeseen catastrophes here).

My point, in taking that player-by-player spin through what the 25-man roster looks like roughly six weeks before pitchers and catchers report, was that Ben Cherington's free-agency repair work has at the very least given them legitimate major league depth.

Exaggerating the importance of this may not be possible. In bringing in the likes of Shane Victorino, Stephen Drew, Ryan Dempster, David Ross, Joel Hanrahan, Koji Uehara, and eventually Mike Napoli, at the very least they've acquired proven competence. Sure, one or two won't work out -- there will be a 2002 Tony Clark in the mix.

But this is a team, as Peter Gammons noted recently, that got 5 wins, 20 losses and a 7.13 out of 31 starts from Aaron Cook, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Zack Stewart. It's a team that gave more than 1,600 total plate appearances to Pedro Ciriaco, Scott Podsednik, Ryan Sweeney, Nick Punto, Mauro Gomez, James Loney, Marlon Byrd, Ryan Kalish, Darnell McDonald, Ryan Lavarnway, and Jose Iglesias. Some of them were adequate, and some could be better than adequate this year, but that is a lot of playing time for players who didn't provide a lot of hope. It's a wonder 2012 Tony Clark didn't get a few September at-bats.

One superstar, one we-gotta-do-something-big commitment to Josh Hamilton, wasn't going to solve all that went wrong last season. They needed to find complementary quality amid the necessary influx of quantity, and they have.

My theory is that so many of those who are skeptical about Cherington's offseason approach stopped paying attention right around the time the Dodgers presented their unfathomable gift of a truly fresh start, and in assessing the misery of last season look at the record rather than how they wound up there. Which, in short, was an unprecedented ravaging of injuries, and under-performance by established, star-level players, concepts which are not mutually exclusive.

The Red Sox were five games over .500 on July 1. They were at .500 at the All-Star break. There reasonable was hope of a hot streak, of legitimate playoff contention. But the injuries never ceased and the hot streak never came. Jon Lester was chronically ineffective in by far the worst season of his fine career, Jacoby Ellsbury had a prolonged recovery from his second high-impact injury in three seasons, and Dustin Pedroia's numbers suffered when he tried to play through a hand injury.

Pedroia led the Red Sox in bWAR -- but his 4.7 was the lowest team-best number since Fred Lynn's 4.5 in 1980. Under-performance was a factor, but it was injuries that destroyed them. The Red Sox used a franchise-record 56 players, required 42 transactions involving the disabled list, and lost nearly 1,500 total player-games to injury.

David Ortiz, one of two major league hitters with an OPS over 1.000 in more than 350 plate appearances last season, played one game after July 16. The Red Sox were 22-49 in his absence. Will Middlebrooks, the slugging rookie third baseman, played his last game Aug. 10. The Red Sox were 13-35 thereafter.

Bobby Valentine's remark that he had the worst roster in the history of baseball in September was snide, typical, and unnecessary, but let's just say the Red Sox' 16-42 record after Aug. 1, with a -109 run-differential, was a reasonably accurate representation of the talent they were putting on the field. I say that with no offense intended to the 42 hits in 181 plate appearances flawed fan-favorites Ciriaco and Daniel Nava provided in September/October.

The 2013 Red Sox need John Farrell to help Lester find his form. They need Ellsbury, the best position player in the AL two years ago, to avoid collisions at all costs. They need Pedroia to ... well, to be himself, though it wouldn't hurt if he took a maintenance day from time to time. They're counting on the return to form of previously accomplished, trustworthy players, they're counting on a deep and versatile bullpen to prevent them from going 17-22 in one-run games and 2-10 in extra innings again, and they're counting on the influx of proven if imperfect veterans to be at least competent in supporting roles. It's not flashy, but it makes all the sense in the world.

Oh, and one more thing: Bobby Valentine's no longer around to continuously show off his patented parlor trick of making everything worse. Wouldn't you say that alone is reason enough to know that 2013 is going to be much better?

Chat sports and media at 2:30 p.m.

  January 3, 2013 09:47 PM

Be sure to stop by our always freewheeling Friday chat, during which we'll discuss how to repair the Celtics, why the Red Sox roster is much-improved, the bye-week, second-seeded Patriots, and the usual media matters. Bring along the Christmas Tree cake you forgot to bring last week and check in below to join the fun.

Red Sox might be better than you think

  January 2, 2013 11:02 AM

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I can't think of a Boston sports team in recent memory that so needed the fresh start of a new year like the 2012 Boston Red Sox. Probably the 2001 collection of bitter misfits, but as despicable as that Everett/Lansing/Kerrigan/Offerman mishmash was, it did win 13 more games than the Disaster of 2012.

Not to digress too much on that 2001 team pack of buffoons, but the approach that offseason was somewhat similar to the one Ben Cherington is taking now -- collecting proven veterans who had good clubhouse reputations, from John Burkett, Tony Clark, and Carlos Baerga to the essential (and high-priced) Johnny Damon and beloved egomaniac  Rickey Henderson. The Red Sox improved to 93 wins the next year, which was seven wins under their Pythagorean projection. I suspect Grady Little remains blissfully unaware of this. pedroiafinn11220.JPG

Anyway, that's my long and winding way of saying that I think the 2013 Red Sox -- enhanced with competence this offseason if nothing else -- are going to be better than the current consensus projection in 2013. With the acknowledgment that some redundancy on the roster still needs to be addressed and they'll have more bench depth than I've accounted for, here's a rundown of what the 25-man roster might look like if the season began today. Which it doesn't. But I wish it did, don't you?

LINEUP
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF: Every time I hear how he's soft or too mellow for the Boston baseball scene, I think back to September 2011, and his .350/.400/.677 slash-line that month while pretty much everyone else sprinted away from the implosion, and I wonder how his perception would be different had the Sox somehow won two more games.

Thumbnail image for victorinofinnshane.jpg.JPG2. Shane Victorino, RF: Did you know he has a biography, which was available on the shelves during my pre-Christmas visit to the Portsmouth, N.H., Barnes and Noble? He has a biography.

3. Dustin Pedroia, 2B: His most similar player statistically thus far also happens to be someone who predated him by a few years as a Red Sox second base prospect -- yep, Freddy Sanchez. Bet you didn't see that one coming. He turns 30 in August, and I do worry about his long-term durability given his admirable but perhaps counterproductive refusal to play any other way but all-out, all the time.

4. David Ortiz, DH: His 1.026 OPS in 383 plate appearances last season was second in baseball (to Cincinnati's Joey Votto) among all players with as many or more plate appearances.

5. Will Middlebrooks, 3B: If he's what he appeared to be on his many good days as a rookie, he'll be the quintessential No. 5 hitter. But that 13/70 BB/K ratio suggests we should leave some room for occasional growing pains.

6. Mike Napoli, 1B: It'll get done. Why? Because ...

... and featuring Lou Gossett Jr. as Ben Cherington. Classic typecasting there, you know.

7. Jarrod Salmiddlebrookswillfinn12.JPGtalamacchia: He's a likable sort, but you know a season really went wrong when the team-leader in home runs had a .288 on-base percentage and whiffed 119 times against 24 walks. Can't imagine he's around come April 1 in the Bronx.

8. Jonny Gomes, DH/LF: In 1,100 career plate appearances against lefthanded pitchers, he has 50 homers and an .894 OPS. Now about finding him that lefty platoon partner ...

9. Stephen Drew, SS: He had 76 extra-base hits in 2008 -- 44 doubles, 11 triples, 21 homers. Derek Jeter's career-high for XBH is 70, set when he went 37-9-24 in 1999.

ROTATION
10. Jon Lester, LHP: The lefty, who turns 29 on January 7, entered September 2011 with the highest winning percentage among qualified active pitchers (75-31, .707). He's 10-17 since, and now seventh on the list, behind Roy Halladay, Jered Weaver, Justin Verlander, Tim Hudson, CC Sabathia and Johan Santana. Get it together, man.

11. Clay Buchholz, RHP: Buchholz was the only pitcher in the majors with an adjusted ERA of 95 in 2012. Slightly below average doesn't come close to cutting it for the presumed No. 2 starter in '13.

12. John Lackey, surgically repaired RHP: I'm not saying it's certain he was damaged goods when the Red Sox signed him, but I bet he felt some twinges in that right elbow picking up the pen to sign that contract. Healthy now, he'll help.

13. Ryan Dempster, RHP: In 12 starts for the Rangers, he had a 5.03 ERA -- but in seven of those starts, he pitched at least six innings while allowing two or fewer earned runs.

14. Felix Doubront, LHP: Pros: Lefthanded, struck out more than a batter per inning with 167 Ks in 161 IPs, and his 4.37 FIP looks a little better than his 4.86 ERA. Cons: Got into the Lesterian habit of letting presumably bad calls affect him, allowed more than a hit per inning, must lower 4.0 walk rate.

BULLPEN
15. Joel Hanrahan, RHP: Top career comp through age 30 is -- gulp -- Todd Jones. Has a 203 adjusted ERA in his superb 2011 season ... yet it would rank as the third-best season of Andrew Bailey's career.

16. Andrew Bailey, RHP: One real conclusion I can draw from this exercise -- he's gone, outta here, adios, sayonara. Circumstantial evidence has suggested it for a while now -- the rumors that he would be the compensation sent to Toronto for John Farrell and the immediate decision to anoint Hanrahan the closer, for starters. But if you look at the depth and versatility of this 'pen and where everyone slots, he seems out of place. This is a guy who had 75 saves and an ERA slightly about 2.00 in his first three seasons and had a fluke injury last year that ruined his first season in Boston. I have eight relievers on the roster now including him and excluding Rubby de la Rosa (love PeteAbe's prediction for him), Daniel Bard, Clayton Mortensen and Chris Carpenter, among others. There's no chance of carrying eight. It sure looks like he's going to be one-and-done here, and I'm curious why they seem so ready to move on from him.

17. Junichi Tazawa, RHP: I think I've said this before recently, or at least some variation. In fact, I know I have. But I'm going to repeat it again, because it's the holiday season and you might have missed it and I think it's one of the more encouraging statistics regarding how the 2013 Red Sox will find success. Here goes ...

18. Koji Uehara, RHP: ... in a combined 74 appearances -- 37 each -- and 80 innings last season, Tazawa and Uehara allowed 57 hits, 14 earned runs, and 8 walks while compiling 88 strikeouts. That's a 1.57 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP.

19. Andrew Miller, LHP: Baseball America's No. 10 prospect in 2007, sandwiched between Justin Upton and Tim Lincecum (with Daisuke Matsuzaka No. 1. Yes, 1. First. Dice-K.)

20. Franklin Morales, LHP: Baseball America's No. 8 prospect in 2008, sandwiched between Clayton Kershaw and Homer Bailey (with David Price 10th).

21. Craig Breslow, LHP: No. 2 career comp: Hideki Okajima.

22. Alfredo Aceves, RHP: Your resident rubber-armed lunatic in the Julian Tavarez tradition, his 2011 season stands as the reminder of his capabilities when his focus is on pitching rather than insubordination.

BENCH
23. David Ross, C: Career OPS+: 100. Career OPS+ with the Red Sox: minus-35. I expect that to improve.

24. Pedro Ciriaco, INF: Versatility and speed give the 27-year-old a chance at being a valuable bench player, but I'm surprised how many Sox fans suggest to me that he deserves a significant role. I figure most of them checked out on the season right around the time the BABIP-bumping flares stopped falling in (.560 OPS in 111 plate appearances in September).

25. Daniel Nava, placeholder: Gets on base against righthanded pitching (,369 career OBP), but doesn't offer much else and should probably abandon switch-hitting. Time for Ryan Kalish to become what he suggested he could be back in 2010.

About Touching All The Bases

Irreverence and insight from Chad Finn, a Globe/Boston.com sports writer and media columnist. A winner of several national and regional writing awards, he is the founder and sole contributor to the TATB blog, which launched in December 2004. Yes, he realizes how lucky he is.

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