Welcome everybody to the wild, wild west
Let's hold off on our look back at the Bill James Handbook projections for another day (or month). After all, it's now October (and you know what that half-wit Dane Cook says about that), our minds are focused on the Angels and tonight's opener, and so it just seems right to spin through a special pregame edition of Nine Innings instead . . .
1. You tell me who wins tonight's game, and I'll tell you who's going to win this series. (How's that for getting to the point? So unlike me.) But I mean it. If Jon Lester comes out and pitches the way he did in September -- actually, the way he did during practically his entire breakthrough 16-6, 3.21 season -- and the rested, favored, and supposedly ready Angels struggle to generate offense, you have to figure thoughts of "Here we go again" will creep into their heads, and the banged up Sox will no longer be underdogs against a franchise they've defeated in their last nine postseason games. But if Lester struggles, the Angels ' jackrabbits generate a few runs, and the Teixeira/Guerrero/Hunter thumpers do their thing against the pitcher who has been the Sox' de facto ace virtually all season, I fear that all of those prognosticators who are picking the Angels to gain redemption in this series with relative ease will be proven right. I think you know where I stand on this -- I could not have more faith in Lester. Sox win tonight. Sox take the series in four.
2. I was almost as encouraged by the inclusion of third-string catcher David Ross on the final roster as I was by the news that Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew were among the final 25, for this reason: It's a clear sign that Tito Francona intends to pinch hit for the mummified remains of Jason Varitek when the situation calls for it. One of the countless things I admire about Francona as a manager is that he consciously changes his approach in the postseason. He manages with more inning-to-inning urgency, whereas from April to September he always has the big picture and the long season in focus. There were a handful of times during the regular season when I'd catch myself screaming at the Samsung after Francona refused to hit for Varitek in a key situation. (Varitek, of course, either whiffed or grounded into a routine double play, depending if there was a runner on first). Ross's presence on the roster is all the proof I need that Tito is about to change his ways again.
3. I admire Lowell for trying to gut it out in this series, but unless he's secretly been fitted with a bionic hip in the last week, I can't imagine he's going to survive for long against the hyper-aggressive Angels. I hate saying it, because the 2007 World Series MVP is obviously an integral part of the Sox' championship hopes, but he's hobbling and wincing like a guy who needs the offseason to hurry up and get here.
4. If any other significant Sox pitcher besides Josh Beckett suffered an oblique injury so close to the postseason, I'd be worried-bordering-on-panic-bordering-on-a-tantrum. But I honestly believe Beckett is one of those true aces of October, like Curt Schilling before him, who can almost will himself to be successful in big moments, even if he doesn't have his best stuff and is not at peak health. To put it another way: If Beckett takes the mound for Game 3, he will deliver.
5. Can someone please explain the following stat to me, courtesy of longtime Friend of TATB Chuck Waseleski (who, from what I hear, is quite maniacal):
The Red Sox were 63-35 (.643) in games Coco Crisp started, 32-32 (.500) in games that he did not start.
I always find myself rooting for Coco for some reason, so I'm glad to see this, but by most measures he had an adequate season at best (94 OPS+). So what am I missing here? Is this just a fluke? Help me, Stat Gurus! (Sending out bat signal to Keith Law . . .)
6. Three sleeper heroes for the Sox:
7. And in the spirit of equal time, three for the Angels:
8. I know, I know, Manny's the most despicable person ever to walk the earth - he karate-chops clubhouse men and kicks puppies, or vice versa, blah blah blah. But could someone please send this along to Gerry Callahan. I'm sure he'll claim it's fiction, but at the least it's an interesting counter to the over-the-top, the-scum-wouldn't-visit-Walter-Reed hatchet job Callahan whacked him with on his way to L.A. The truth, as usual, is probably somewhere in the middle.
9. As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:
For karma's sake. And if you're old enough to remember 1986, you know exactly what I mean. (FYI, we used Hendu in this spot in the lineup before the Angels series last year.)
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Chad, nice Tupac/Dr. Dre reference in the headline. Let's hope the Angels don't "know how to party" at the end of the series.
Regarding the Sox' record when Crisp starts:
31-27 when he starts and reaches base 0 or 1 time;
32-8 when he starts and reaches base 2+ times.
And 24-3 when he drives in a run. Won 20 out of last 21 of those since May 20, only loss was 7/30 to, you guessed it, the Angels.
" I was almost as encouraged by the inclusion of third-string catcher David Ross on the final roster as I was by the news that Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew were among the final 25, for this reason: It's a clear sign that Tito Francona intends to pinch hit for the mummified remains of Jason Varitek when the situation calls for it. "
Yeah, because that Ross is really swinging the ball well himself!! What a huge improvement! Give me a break dude!
I'll be happy if the Sox can at least win one out there in Anaheim and I don't see Lowell running gingerly around. I give him a whole lot of credit for even attempting to play but I hope he's not making things worse.
Dice-K gets into a few of his bases loaded innings and I can see Wakefield coming in if runs start scoring. I dread even thinking it but the same holds true for Pap. He starts giving up hits and maybe Wake comes in to close.
I remember 1986 very well. Patriots lost the Super Bowl, Celtics win their 16th championship, Red Sox lose the World Series. Despite the losses I thought that was as good as it would get in Boston.
Even if the Sox go down two games to none they still will win it.Thats just the Sox being the Sox.
Kevin - a little enlightenment. Just because Ross is on the roster doesn't mean he actually has to pinch-hit for 'Tek. Consider the possibility: 'Tek comes to bat in the top of the 8th of a tight ball game, men on 2nd and 3rd, two out. Francona pinch hits...with Mark Kotsay. Or Sean Casey. Bottom of the 8th, Ross is catching.
"Give me a break, dude!"
Wow, five minutes til gametime - time to focus. Chad, any chance we'll get a live blog (do it) this postseason? I'm afraid your reads may have become spoiled (do it).
Bruins did ok in '86 as well. Steve Crawford is bad karma. Wasn't he part of the "Take photos of all the guys cheating on their wives" contingent in Spring Training?
Kevin, you moron. It doesn't mean that Ross will be the actual PH for Varitek, just that there's depth at C, so that Vartitek can be lifted. Yeesh.
To Kevin: Maybe Chad meant pinch-hitting someone who's actually swinging a good bat (Casey, Drew, Crisp) for Varitek, and then putting Ross in at catcher when the Sox take the field the next inning. Obviously Ross hasn't shown much at the plate (not given a lot of opportunity, to be sure) but I think that's what his role would be. Unless he can suddenly revert to the 21-homer form he showed in Cincy...
Um, Kevin, you're missing a little something in your analysis/criticism:
Including Ross as 3rd catcher means a real bat can pinch-hit for Varitek, then there are 2 catchers available for D. One of the reasons Francona might have been reluctant to pinch-hit for him in the past is the lack of insurance for injury scenarios.
Always love those strong predictions... so Carnac the Magnificent has the Sox in 4 with a Lester win in Game 1.... good enough for me... now if Fiji would only have a bookie that covers something other than Rugby I'd be all set.
Please stop commenting on Kevin's post and observe that in last night's game 'Tek laid down sacrifice to advance Lowrie in the top 9th of a 1-run game. I question Chad's whole premise, unfortunately....
Kevin,
Have mercy on us. In the future, please call the Whiner-Line instead.
Perhaps it is the way Mr. Finn wrote it that Kevin had a problem with it...I dont' pretend to know Kevin, but...
"It's a clear sign that Tito Francona intends to pinch hit for the mummified remains of Jason Varitek when the situation calls for it."
The mummified remains? That's a bit harsh, isn't it? a tad too "blogger-ish" maybe?
Wasn't Mr. Finn the one that declared Varitek done a few weeks ago, prior to the Baltimore series? the one where he hit three home runs in three consecutive games?
I believe Crawford said in game 5 against the Angels (The Hendu HR game), 'I was so nervous, if there was a toilet on the mound I would have used it.'
Varitek hit .183 in September.
D-O-N-E.
Nice bunt last night. However, if they wanted someone to actually get a hit in that spot, he wouldn't have been at the plate.
I can't beleive you can continue to defend Manny!!
Not defending him, Stu. Just pointing out that the story isn't as black and white as Callahan made it seem.
How come no one has mentioned that Francona left Lowell and Drew in defensively in the ninth? Surely that's a good sign going forward, even if Lowell did look a little hobbled and manny-esque running out infield grounders... Can't beleive the Angels never bunted to third. Scioscia gets a lot of credit for being a good manager, but between the lack of bunts and pulling Lackey early (who threw around 91 pitches, even if Oliver did get Ortiz) I don't see it.
Solid showing and then some from Lester, a brilliant game (no earned runs, no extra base hits), and it was good to see Masterson settle down and get through the 8th, at least the bullpen should be well rested for Dice-K's start - they may need it.
Regarding Veritek, I still like him and want him as the Sox catcher. He's obviously fallen off at the plate, but what he does with the pitching staff is so valuable it makes up for it.
shag crawford was my grandfather's neighbor in the 80's - as much of a neighbor as you can be in rural northeastern oklahoma...he lived up the road from granddad and whenever he would come down the road - if grandpa - being the lone red sox fan living on the outskirts of tiny salina, oklahoma - was out he would stop him and talk the sox...my grandfather died in 1994 but in 1997 i had an opportunity to meet crawford and when i told him who my grandfather was he was very cordial - even asked how ole' d.w. was doing noting that it had been quite a while since he'd seen him
I know what Chad's talking about when he mentions Steve Crawford.
"Shag" was the man on the mound in the bottom of the 9th in Game 5, AFTER Henderson's homer in the top of the 9th put the Sox ahead 6-5.
The Angels quickly tied the game against Bob Stanley and Joe Sambito, and Crawford was summoned from the bullpen. He allowed a single to Dick Schofield and then intentionally walked Brian Downing to load the bases with one out, but then he retired Doug DeCinces and Bobby Grich to end the threat and get the game into extra innings. He then pitched a scoreless 10th and the Sox won the game in the 11th, with Schiraldi coming in to get the save in the bottom of the 11th.
It was Crawford's single best moment as a major leaguer. Crawford also was the winning pitcher in Game 2 of the World Series, when Clemens couldn't finish the 5th inning but the Sox pounded Dwight Gooden en route to a 9-3 win.
After Game 2, Crawford pitched like, well, Steve Crawford again, and that was about it.
could manny actually be the first player to win an mvp award in both leagues in the same year?
think about it, the sox got better when he left, and the dodgers got better when he came.
that takes a special player, and as we know, manny is....special.
Nice W last night. Lester was really bringing the heat and is looking as strong as he has all year. Jason Bay with a big tater, after looking silly striking out his first two AB's.
A little note to the Varitek cheering squad - most major league catchers know how to handle a pitching staff (the Javy Lopez error in Boston, excluded). Varitek is now a below average major league catcher - both at the plate and behind the plate. Let me be blunt - it is a track meet on the base paths for opposing base stealers with him catching. I appreciate what he did in his first 10 years here, but he's now a major liability.
I'm not much for most of the new statistics, but one I really like is VORP - Value Over Replacement Player. How would the player being rated compare to a fictitious replacement player who is an average fielder and below average hitter. The higher the VORP the better. For example, Kevin Youkilis had a 2008 regular season VORP of 55.8, ranked 16th in Major League Baseball. Jason Varitek's 2008 regular season VORP was -1.0, ranking 763rd, where he is surrounded by National League pitchers who have to bat in games. The ficitious average replacement player would've been a better alternative starting at catcher for the Boston Red Sox than Jason Varitek.
It is O-V-E-R.
So, if it's a Red Sox vs. Dodgers World Series will Manny get a ring either way?
Finn, why do you keep digging on 'Tek??? This team wouldn't have won two, and possibly a third by the end of the month, without him! Catchers, by nature, are normally not the best hitters, save Johnny Bench and Joe Mauer and some others. So WHAT if 'Tek is having an off year? He is the BEST in the business at handling pitchers and calling games. THAT is what makes up the DNA of a catcher; any offense is icing on the cake. This fan is hoping the Sox will give him a 3-year deal. They have enough bats in the lineup to compensate for his "mummified remains", as you so put it.
This blogger might want to review your comment before posting it.
Irreverence and insight from Chad Finn, a Globe/Boston.com sports writer and lifelong and incurable sports nut. Yes, he realizes how lucky he is. You can e-mail him at chadfinn4@yahoo.com.
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