Free fallin'

First, the usual disclaimer: Predicting where free agents will end up is an exercise in futility.

General managers -- even the less-than-savvy ones -- rarely reveal their honest intentions at this time of year, thus there are more myths, half-truths, and creative interpretations of facts floating around than you'll find in one of Scott Boras's "books" on his free agent clients.

But man, it is such a fun exercise in futility, and though we go into knowing we'll likely be spectacularly wrong yet again, here's our semi-educated guess as where many of this year's marquee free agents will ultimately end up. Just spare me the embarrassment and don't hold me to 'em three years from now, okay?

Mark Teixeira: There is one report this morning speculating that the Yankees' acquisition of Nick Swisher (a shrewd low-risk, high-reward move) means that New York isn't as eager to bid on the Angels' slugging first baseman as everyone believes. I don't buy it for a nanosecond. This strikes me as another case of Brian Cashman attempting to hide in the weeds before swooping down to get his man, just as he did with Johnny Damon after the 2005 season. As much as I want Teixeira to end up with the Red Sox -- and as much as I believe the Red Sox sincerely covet him -- I simply can't convince myself that they are going to win a bidding war with the Yankees when -- not if, when -- it comes to that. He'll end up in pinstripes, and the length and terms will be staggering.

CC Sabathia: Big ol' Carsten Charles is going to have an interesting decision to make: Accept the ridiculously lucrative offer that the Yankees are all but admitting will be forthcoming (rumor has it the pitch will include free nachos for life at the new stadium) or take a little (or perhaps a lot) less cash while going to a place where he believes his quality of life will be more to his liking. Sabathia loves hitting -- he batted .235 with a pair of homers in 51 at-bats this season -- and would prefer to return to his native California, so logic suggests he'll end up with Dodgers should they come up with a competitive offer. But the Yankees will not make it easy for him.

Manny Ramirez: While Scott Boras snickers in his lair at the Dodgers' apparently underwhelming offer, ask yourself this: Can you think of one team that will even consider making the commitment to Ramirez -- in terms of years, not annual salary -- that he's looking for? As long as Brian Cashman has clout, the closest Manny will get to being a Yankee is being on Hank Steinbrenner's fantasy team. The Dodgers seem to be setting themselves up to finish second in the bidding. I suppose the Angels might fit if Teixeira leaves, but do they really want two incurable goofballs in the same outfield? The Giants, who have lots of money to spend, no offense to speak of, and a history of putting up with mercurial sluggers, might be a sleeper. But ultimately, the only team that I can even see considering giving Manny what he and Boras believe he is worth is the Mets, based mostly on Omar Minaya's enduring MannyCrush.

Derek Lowe: Maybe it's wishful thinking on the part of someone who always got a kick out of Lowe -- and I will forever insist his performance on two days' rest in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS is one of the most underrated clutch efforts in sports history -- but honestly I do think he ends up back with the Red Sox. He never wanted to leave in the first place, and despite having Boras as an agent, I think he'll ultimately return for significantly less loot than he could get elsewhere.

A.J. Burnett: To paraphrase the old adage, if you can't beat him, sign him. Burnett, who went 3-1 with a 1.64 ERA in five starts versus the Yankees last season, will end up with a healthy chunk of the Steinbrenners' cash after Sabathia signs elsewhere.

Kerry Wood: Kinda sad that the Cubs had to let go of one of their more popular and identifiable players -- he should have been a lifer -- but GM Jim Hendry's thinking is probably prudent: Wood has been so riddled with injuries throughout his career that it would be foolhardy at this point to give him the three-year deal he covets. But after his successful transition to becoming a closer last season -- he whiffed 84 in 66 1/3 innings, with a 1.08 WHIP -- he'll get that deal somewhere, possibly from the Tigers, though the Rangers also make sense.