During our weekly chat this afternoon, we discussed the Red Sox' hot stove options, whether Rex Ryan will be crying again come Sunday evening, and why a "Pirate Looks At 40" suddenly resonates more than ever.

Ten free minutes for me, 10 free throwaway lines for you . . .

1. All arguments, real and contrived, have been spouted and shouted about Bill Belichick's gutsy and ill-fated decision to go for . . . well, you know. So I'm going to keep my opinion on the matter simple, then move along, because there's nothing more to see here:

While I had the same reaction you probably did during that split second when it hit you that, yes, Dan Koppen did just snap the ball to Brady, and yes, they are actually going for this -- mine was something like "Holy [cow]," except the word used in my household was not synonymous with "bovine" -- in the stunning aftermath of the loss, I still kept coming back to the thought that by going for it, Belichick, more than anything else, revealed his tremendous respect for both superstar quarterbacks.

He preferred the option of trying to get two yards from Tom Brady rather than trying to keep Peyton Manning from getting 65, 70, whatever it would have taken to reach the end zone.

I can't fault him for that . . . and beyond that, I'm glad the Patriots have a coach who is willing to disregard conventional wisdom in such a tense and crucial moment and do what he thinks is right.

He is not Grady Little.

Seems to me he is the exact opposite.

2. The results are always fascinating and insightful whenever Belichick agrees to be miked up on the sideline, as he was a week ago against the Dolphins. (Love how he foresaw Pat White's involvement in the Dolphins' game plan.) But man, I can't help but imagine the compelling audio had he been miked up this week.

3. Buster Olney is as good as it gets as a baseball writer, and I mean that sincerely -- his smart and newsy blog would be a must-read even without all of the links. But . . .

. . . well, it's just that when he tweeted yesterday that "[the] NYY are not interested in signing Holliday. They'll talk to [agent Scott] Boras to keep other bidders honest, but corner outfield not a priority for them," it was difficult to contain my cynicism, particularly when recent history is given full consideration.

I mean, really? We're going to do this again? We're going to take the Yankees at their word? If a denial of interest isn't a sign that the Yankees are slobbering over Holliday behind clossed, then we haven't been paying attention the last couple of seasons.

The Yankees are playing their patented, "Eh, what do we need him for, we have Bubba Crosby/Nick Swisher?" routine, then swoop in at the last moment and trump any and all offers.

The paranoia of a Boston sports fan in action? Perhaps. But we've seen this movie before with Johnny Damon . . . not to mention its sequel starring Mark Teixeira last year. And both times, Boras was the director.

4. While I can't see the Red Sox going for him unless the sticker price is greatly discounted -- and I believe Ken Rosenthal's suggestion here qualifies -- the idea of Miguel Cabrera is more than intriguing.

He's Manny in his prime, but without the charm.

5. Remember in those gloomy pre-KG days a few seasons ago, when there was talk of the Celtics swinging a deal with the Sixers for Allen Iverson? Yeah, good thing that didn't happen -- The Answer most certainly would not have been here.

I've always had tremendous admiration for Iverson's toughness -- I can't think of another little guy who was so fearless in attacking the rim, save for maybe the more elegant Isiah Thomas -- but apparently that pride that helped him become such a dynamic player is preventing him, at age 34, from recognizing that he's no longer the centerpiece superstar of his youth.

In other words: He should be a great fit with the Knicks.

6. Best sports news of the day? Easy: Royals' Greinke wins AL Cy Young Award.

Thank goodness, they got it right.

The kid had a vintage Pedro season, and around here, you know we don't throw around that phrase or praise lightly.

That he was a nearly unanimous winner -- he earned 25 of 28 first-place votes -- despite having "only" 16 victories for a non-contender is an encouraging example of enlightened thinking.

The "2010 Baseball America Prospect Handbook" arrives in bookstores and mail boxes in late January, but the tease comes roughly a month earlier: The list of the Red Sox' top 30 prospects is set to be revealed on the BA website Dec. 14.

So there you go. Mark your calendars. When you're a baseball junkie, Christmas really does last more than one day. Especially if someone else antes up the cover and on-line subscription prices.

For fans who want a glimpse of the future -- and for certain writers who love keeping each year's edition for future reference, just so they can someday write haughty, know-it-all sentences like, "You know, in 2006, Jeremy Hermida was rated higher than Hanley Ramirez" -- the Prospect Handbook is a must-have annual addition to the baseball library. It is in-depth and serious, impeccably written and researched, a true and trustworthy guide to the finest young players in every franchise's farm system.

In sum, it's awesome. Just buy it already.

Now, with that haphazard endorsement out of the way, we're comfortable addressing the striking reality in regard to one of the Red Sox' grandest possible plans this offseason:

Baseball America's list of the Red Sox' top 30 prospects will make for compelling reading for an opposing general manager in search of knowledge and insight about the Boston player development machine. But it certainly will not match the internal rankings of general manager Theo Epstein and his baseball operations staff.

And it will be of absolutely no use to the one general manager who holds perhaps the most appealing trade chip this winter when it comes to the Red Sox. Because the truth is this:

Jed Hoyer -- Epstein's longtime front-office wingman, the Padres' rookie general manager, and the person who will have an enormous say in where and for whom the great and coveted Adrian Gonzalez plays baseball the next several seasons -- knows the Red Sox as well as the Red Sox know themselves.

And that could make for one fascinating prologue to a blockbuster deal.

There is a theory, a perfectly reasonable one, that Hoyer's institutional knowledge of the Red Sox organization could provide an impenetrable barrier to achieving a deal for Gonzalez, the 27-year-old slugger whose acquisition would give the Red Sox their answer to Mark Teixeira (with the added bonus of ending all "Why didn't we get Teixeira?" sniveling.) Epstein addressed the complexities of talking trade with Hoyer at the general managers meetings, saying, ""We look for the same things in players. It's sometimes easier to make a deal if there are disparities in how players are valued.''

Epstein speaks the truth . . . and yet, I hope, and believe, that this won't be a deal-breaker here. What it should mean is that any negotiations between the Red Sox and Padres for Gonzalez are going to have to be truly honest. There will no suggestions that Michael Bowden is a suitable stand-in for Clay Buchholz. No snake-oil salesmanship of farmhands Baseball America and the like might praise, but whom are considered "fake" prospects within the confines of the Red Sox' baseball ops department.

If he's as competent as his reputation suggests, Hoyer cannot be duped here. He knows the in-house answers, whatever they may be, for why Clay Buchholz wilted in 2008. He knows how Daniel Bard's control problems in Single A were cured. He knows why Lars Anderson struggled in Double A, he knows whether Casey Kelly should pitch or play shortstop, he knows the club's preference between Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish, and he knows so much more than that.

When Hoyer and Epstein talk about a Gonzalez deal-- and c'mon, you know they will -- it will be to involve the real prospects, the ones Hoyer knows Epstein is loath to part with. And should a deal be consummated, I suspect it will be one that both Hoyer and Epstein both feel good about, yet one that also leaves both men a little queasy. Man, I hated to give up that guy, but we had to do it . . . didn't we?

Make no mistake: Gonzalez will bring, as Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman cleverly called it this summer when his name first showed up in trade rumors, the madre lode. And yet, chances are Gonzalez will prove worth whatever package the Red Sox part with. All prospects are essentially lottery tickets, even the truly elite. In the 2002 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America founder Allan Simpson rated his top 10 prospects this way:

1. Josh Beckett, RHP, Marlins
2. Mark Prior, RHP, Dusty Baker's Arm 'n' Limb Meat Grinder Emporium
3. Sean Burroughs, 3B, Padres
4. Hank Blalock, 3B, Rangers
5. Wilson Betemit, SS, Braves
6. Ryan Anderson, LHP, Mariners
7. Juan Cruz, RHP, Cubs
8. Josh Hamilton, OF, Devil Rays
9. Mark Teixeira, 3B, Rangers
10. Carlos Pena, 1B, A's


Joe Mauer was 14th, Marlins shortstop Miguel Cabrera -- yes, shortstop; imagine that now -- was 31st, one spot below KC's Angel Berroa, and Gonzalez was 34th, one spot ahead of the Angels' Casey Kotchman.

So, yeah . . . lottery tickets. Case rested. If Theo has to part with Casey Kelly (is he closer to the next Frankie Rodriguez or closer to the next Zack Greinke?) or Ryan Westmoreland (are the injuries officially a concern?) or frankly, anyone in the organization with legitimate aspirations of playing in Fenway Park someday, he must do it, unless and only unless he's covertly hoarding his chips for a possible Felix Hernandez sweepstakes.

Otherwise, he's got to go get Gonzo. He won't be 28 until May, he's a terrific defender with a pair of Gold Gloves (for what those are worth), and he's coming off a monster season (40 homers, 119 walks, .958 OPS; 28 homers and 1.045 OPS away from the Petco Canyon) while anchoring a lineup that featured no one else more venerable than Will Venable.

For all of his value on the field, he might be the biggest steal in baseball financially. He's due to make $4.75 million in 2010 and $5.5 million in '11, the total of which is roughly what Alex Rodriguez will make during the first two months of next season. Why would the Padres consider dealing such a valuable yet inexpensive ballplayer? The reason is twofold: As former GM Kevin Towers revealed after his apparently amicable departure, the Padres probably are not going to be able to afford Gonzalez down the road since the franchise is likely looking at a $40-million payroll for the foreseeable future.

Beyond that, if they're not in a full-blown rebuilding mode yet, they should be, because it's only a matter of time. Their farm system is depleted -- that Matt Bush-over-Justin Verlander thing didn't work out so well -- and the reason why some think the Padres shouldn't trade Gonzalez is the same reason Hoyer should explore every option: His value will never be higher. Trading Gonzalez's prime for the hope of a brighter future is the proper thing to do.

There should be no fear as to whether Gonzalez can handle the bright and sometimes blinding lights of Boston after spending his first six years in junior varsity baseball territories Texas, and San Diego. This is a kid who was a No. 1 overall pick and once predicted he would hit .420 one season in the minor leagues. He didn't. But it's fair to say his self-confidence has been justified several times over since then. He can make it anywhere.

Here's hoping we get to watch it happen firsthand here in Boston. Sure, Adrian Gonzalez will come at a steep price. That's how it should be for a player of his caliber.

What will be extra intriguing is discovering what constitutes a steep -- but worthwhile -- price to Epstein, for whom bluffing is not an option when he's dealing with an old friend who not only knows what he needs, but knows what he knows as well.

Be sure to stop by our weekly chat at noon Friday, during which we'll discuss the Red Sox' hot stove, the Patriots' annual (at least) showdown with the Colts, the usual media matters, and perhaps even why "Joan -- good idea" might be our favorite line from the most fulfilling hour of television in a long time.

You're not going to believe this, but I swear it's as accurate as the suggestion that Jay-Z looks like Dwight Gooden's stunt double:

The hot-off-the-presses 2010 Bill James Handbook, which I'm holding in my dirty paws right now, projects the recently crowned World Champions to, well, stink next year, collapsing so grotesquely that they'll finish -- get this -- 39-123. Yup, the 2010 Yankees will be the butt of jokes even for the 1962 Mets.

True story. Mark Teixeira will mysteriously morph into the new Marv Throneberry, 38-year-old Jorge Posada will channel Choo Choo Coleman, and Derek Jeter's collapse will be so sudden and severe that he'll catch himself wondering how Elio Chacon made it look so easy.

Most improbably of all, Mariano Rivera will actually get old.

(Waiting . . .)

(Savoring the daydream. . .)

(Waiting one more beat . . .)

Oh, all right, I made that up. The folks at Baseball Info Solutions, the numbers-crunching masterminds behind the Handbook, don't even do standings projections, at least in a conventional manner. But for a Sox fan, it was fun to ponder, and certainly better than the reality:

These Yankees are a beast, having gone 94-44 after a slow start to breeze to a championship that we all suspected might be inevitable once their lineup featuring seven present or future All-Stars got rolling in midsummer. That 8-0 start for the Sox against their rival feels like seasons ago.

Credit from this corner is a few days overdue, so here goes: Congratulations to the Yankees and their obnox . . .er, loyal fans. The best team won, and we'll never complain too loudly when that happens, even if there is absolutely no denying that they are the best team money could buy. Guess it was Giambi and Mussina's fault after all.

(You know, re-reading that, it really wasn't as gracious as it sounded in my head.)

Anyway, back to the point -- and yes, there is one today. As I mentioned, the annual Bill James Handbook is out, and it's arrival in the mailbox and the immediate aftermath is one of the finest hours -- make that roughly three of the finest hours -- in a baseball nerdle's year. There is one small disappointment this year -- James has moved one of my favorite features, the always insightful "Young Player Index" from this book to The Bill James Gold Mine, which I'm sure I'll also pick up. Nevertheless, the book is a treasure trove of fascinating insight and data, and this remains perhaps my favorite recurring columns to write each year.

Let's start out the way we always do -- with a look at some of the Handbook's projections for Sox hitters and pitchers in 2010. For the fun of it -- and for some perspective -- we're also including last year's projections, as well each player's actual 2009 numbers.

SELECTED RED SOX HITTERS . . .
David Ortiz
2009 BJH projection: .288 average, 37 homers, 119 RBIs, .966 OPS
2009 reality: .238, 28, 99, .794
2010 BJH projection: .264, 29, 99, .887

Jacoby Ellsbury
2009 BJH projection: .302, 9, 53, .783
2009 reality: .301, 8, 60, .770
2010 BJH projection: .302, 9, 62, .780

Dustin Pedroia
2009 BJH projection: .315, 15, 78, .848
2009 reality: .296, 15, 72, .819
2010 BJH projection: .307, 15, 75, .843

Jason Bay
2009 BJH projection: .280, 30, 102, .881
2009 reality: .267, 36, 119, .921
2010 BJH projection: .268, 32, 103, .878

Jason Varitek
2009 BJH projection: .238, 13, 52, .726
2009 reality: .209, 14, 51, .703
2010 BJH projection: .229, 9, 34, .720

Mike Lowell
2009 BJH projection: .277, 16, 75, .791
2009 reality: .290, 17, 75, .811
2010 BJH projection: .278, 19, 84, .795

Jeremy Hermida
2009 BJH projection: .275, 20, 72, .822
2009 reality: .259, 13, 47, .740
2010 BJH projection: .267, 20, 73, .796

. . . AND A FEW SOX PITCHERS
Josh Beckett
2009 BJH projection: 13 wins, 8 losses, 3.57 ERA, 189 innings
2009 reality: 17-6, 3.86, 212.1 IP
2010 BJH projection: 15-9, 3.62, 221 IP

Jon Lester
2009 BJH projection: 12-11, 4.02, 212 IP
2009 reality: 15-8, 3.41, 203.1 IP
2010 BJH projection: 13-10, 3.84, 206 IP

Daisuke Matsuzaka
2009 BJH projection: 12-8, 3.58, 184 IP
2009 reality: 4-6, 5.76, 59.1 IP
2010 BJH projection: 12-10, 4.02, 190 IP

Clay Buchholz
2009 BJH projection: None. Not enough data from his lost 2008 season, I assume.
2009 reality: 7-4, 4.21, 92 IP
2010 BJH projection: 10-8, 3.91, 161 IP

PROJECTIONS FOR OTHER PERSONS OF INTEREST
Johnny Damon: .278, 17, 70, .786
Adrian Gonzalez: .279, 35, 106, .888
Matt Holliday: .316, 27, 109, .922
Josh Willingham: .260, 25, 78, .845
Hideki Matsui: .282, 23, 88, .842
Manny Ramirez: .296, 30, 101, .943
Pedro Martinez: 6-4, 3.54, 89 IP, 88 Ks
John Smoltz: 3-2, 3.42 ERA, 50 IP
Felix Hernandez: 14-12, 3.37, 235 IP
Roy Halladay: 17-10, 3.23, 240 IP

NOTES SCRIBBLED IN THE MARGINS
Interesting how the Verducci Effect played out this season -- most notably, how Jon Lester proved an exception, though some of that may have to do with his unusual career path. Lester was the No. 1 candidate for breakdown or regression on this year's list, having thrown 83 more innings in 2008 than during any other season of his career. Yet there he was in 2009, chugging along as a workhorse and legitimate ace for the Red Sox, becoming a more dominant pitcher than he has ever been. He threw seven fewer regular-season innings yet whiffed 73 more batters (225 in 203 innings) than in '08. But that's not to say the Verducci Effect has been proven a myth. No. 2 on the list: Cole Hamels . . . The numbers for Manny and Papi appear to be evidence that the projections are slow to foresee an aging player's slippage or full-out collapse. Give me the under on the suggestion that they'll hit 59 homers between them in '10. . . If Matt Holliday were guaranteed to put up those projected numbers for the Red Sox, I'd have no problem if Theo Epstein opted to throw a nine-figure offer his way. But six full years into his career, I'm still not sure whether his excellent numbers are due to his talent and work ethic or due to playing half of his home games at Coors Field, hitting behind Albert Pujols for a half-season, and so on . . . Might have mentioned this in my chat this week, but Bay, Holliday, and Hideki Matsui are all high on each others' similarity scores on baseball-reference.com. I realize Matsui is several years older than both Holliday and Bay, but I said it before his performance in the World Series: He wouldn't be the worst one- or two-year solution in left field. As Pedro can attest, he's still a heck of a hitter . . . I realize the projections are in line with his usual underachievement, but I still love the Jeremy Hermida deal. He still hasn't entered his prime seasons, he's had some success (albeit inconsistent), he has the talent to be a star (he was the Marlins' top prospect in 2006 -- ahead of Hanley Ramirez -- and was considered so can't-miss that he was the Baseball America Prospect Handbook's cover boy. He is precisely the kind of player you take a gamble on -- a talented kid possibly in need of a change of scenery -- because they payoff could be huge . . . The BJH essentially nailed its '09 projection for Ellsbury, and expects a very similar season again in '10. It's tempting to consider this more evidence that the player we see right now is the player he's going to be through his prime, since he'll be 27 next September and maybe he ain't that young anymore. Don't know about you, but I'm OK with what he is, though I do wish he'd bunt more to utilize those jets . . . If Smoltz has a 3.49 ERA next year, then I'm going to assume the Senior League has been revived.

OTHER BLOOPS AND BLEEDERS
Any value Mike Lowell had last season was tied entirely to his hitting: The Red Sox' third baseman rates as the second-worst baserunner in the American League (congratulations for that dubious honor, Juan Rivera), and ranked as the worst defender at his position in terms of Runs Saved at minus-18. You'll have to buy the book to get both formulas' explanation, but suffice to say that after watching Lowell admirably and gamely trying to play on a surgically repaired hip, we still have no qualms with either of these statistical conclusions.

The Red Sox did not put their gloves to optimal use last season: In the balloting for the "Fielding Bible" awards, in which 10 progressive and knowledgeable voters -- including the admired-around-here likes of Rob Neyer and Joe Posnanski -- pick the best defender at each position in the major leagues. Among Red Sox, Kevin Youkilis was second to Albert Pujols at first base, Dustin Pedroia was fourth at second base, and Jason Bay was 10th among left fielders despite appearing on just four ballots. Also, Varitek was 11th among catchers, one spot and one vote higher than Pudge Rodriguez. Then there are the disses. Alex Gonzalez was 19th at shortstop, receiving one vote (Derek Jeter and Hanley Ramirez were tied for 17th, with three votes each); Jacoby Ellsbury did not collect a single vote in center field; and Lowell did not get even one mercy vote at third.

Manny who? Maybe some of us didn't always notice, but the Red Sox really did have one of the most productive outfields in baseball last season. Jason Bay was tops among AL left fielders in OPS (.925), he was tied for fourth with A-Rod in at-bats per home run (14.8), and tied teammate Victor Martinez for sixth in the AL with a .533 batting average with the bases loaded. We know about Jacoby Ellsbury's feats on the basepaths, but he also led the league in triples (10) and was fourth in singles (143), which 60 or so times ended up the rough equivalent of a double a few pitches later. And the much-maligned J.D. Drew led all AL right fielders in OPS (.911) and had the highest OPS in the league in the second half (.999). It's not exactly Rice-Lynn-Dewey material, but all in all, this trio was pretty damn good.

Don't think we can say two kind, tangible things about Jason Varitek's performance last season? Oh, yeah? Well, here you go: 1) He was the best catcher in baseball at blocking "bad" pitches this season, stopping 374 of 390 pitches he had to block. 2) He had a 1.044 OPS when hitting a slider. Of course, he was looking fastball, but still.

Think the White Sox would take Brian Anderson for him? It wasn't always evident during his short time here, but Mark Kotsay ranks as one of the most successful pinch-hitters in the history of baseball, batting .342 with a .562 slugging percentage in his career. Who knew?

Yo Derek Jeter, I'm really happy for you, I'm gonna let you finish, but A-Rod is one of the best players of all time. Of all time!: It remains to be seen how a connection to steroids will affect current players' Hall of Fame chances, but I tend to think it will essentially be shrugged off as a part of this generation's culture by the time A-Rod is eligible for Cooperstown. But even if his legacy remains damaged to some degree, barring a career-altering injury, A-Rod is undoubtedly going to rank as one of the dozen or so finest players ever. While Jeter ranks the highest among current players with a 96-percent chance of getting 3,000 hits -- he has 2,747 right now, his best old ex-friend A-Rod is right behind him with an 89-percent chance of reaching the milestone . . . and he has a decent shot at some even more impressive feats. He has a 40-percent chance at the home run record (the number is now 762, in case you forgot), a 34-percent chance at setting the all-time RBI record (2,297, still owned by Hammerin' Hank), and a 22-percent chance at breaking Rickey Henderson's runs record (2,295). By the way, that the runs and RBI records are within two runs of each other is just a great piece of baseball symmetry, isn't it?