I begin this endeavor today well aware that I will eventually regard it as a baseball writer's foolish exercise in embarrassment and humiliation. Should you stumble upon this midsummer, no doubt you will feel the urge to point and laugh in my general direction.

Yes, once again, I am going to attempt to predict the Red Sox' 2010 Opening Day 25-man roster . . . in November. Two days before Thanksgiving. Thirteen weeks before pitchers and catchers report.

The last time I did such a thing, pretty much three years ago to this day, it went about as well as you would expect.

I projected that the Sox would trade Kevin Youkilis and Manny Ramirez, praised Bryce Cox as someone who might help immediately (he spent last season at Portland and his next major league pitch will be his first), ripped J.D. Drew, and compared Dustin Pedroia to -- and I'm being too honest for my own good at this point -- Brent Abernathy. Yes, this Brent Abernathy. Hey, Tito wasn't sold on Pedey either, you know.

Coincidentally enough, in 2006, I speculated that they would deal for none other than Adrian Gonzalez. (Does anyone recall a Manny-to-the-Padres rumor circa that time?) Three years later, I'm still waiting for it to happen. Three years later, I'm still predicting that it will . . . because dammit, it should.

Oh, common sense suggests the Sox won't pull off anything huge this offseason, what with the steep exchange rates for Gonzalez and Seattle ace Felix Hernandez, as well as a remarkably unappealing free agent class.

Then again, no one with any common sense tries to project the roster six months before the first game.

But it is fun to consider, and hey, anything to throw a couple of extra logs on the hot stove. So with lots of consideration and research (really), a healthy dose of wishful thinking, and the help of my not-so-trusty Magic Eight-Ball, here's my best effort . . .

LINEUP
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF. There certainly is every expectation that he'll be back for his third full season at age 26 . . . but parting with him in a deal for Gonzalez and signing Mike Cameron for a year or two wouldn't be the craziest idea ever floated, would it?

2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B. I suspect his performance last year (.296/.371/.447) will represent his typical season, and given all that he provides, there's absolutely nothing wrong with that. It's OK to admit the MVP award was a bit serendipitous.

3. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B. I've explained my feelings on this before, and nothing has changed: It is going to take a bounty of riches to get Gonzalez from the Padres, in part because he is a wonderful, underpaid player in the heart of his prime, and in part because new Padres GM Jed Hoyer probably has as much familiarity with the Red Sox farm system as anyone not named Theo Epstein. But I'll shout it again: He is worth it. Give them Clay Buchholz, Ryan Westmoreland, Casey Kelly, and another SoxProspects.com favorite or two, and do not look back.

4. Kevin Youkilis, 3B. Defensively, he's an excellent first baseman and merely a good third baseman . . . yet with Youk at third, the Gold Glove-winning Gonzalez at first, and Mike Lowell a pleasant memory, the Sox are a much better team offensively and defensively.

5. Victor Martinez, C. Glad to see he got a cursory vote in the AL MVP race, because the only disappointing aspect about his time with the Red Sox thus far is that he hasn't figured out a way to clone himself.

6. David Ortiz, DH. Is it too much to ask from Papi in 2010 for last year's production (28 homers, 99 RBIs) with a 30-point hike in batting average and more consistency? Given his .866 OPS in the second half, I don't think it is.

7. J.D. Drew, RF. I'm a J.D. convert -- do I need to get Theo to cite his OPS again for you non-believers? -- and I like him even better when he saves his surgeries for the offseason.

8. Jeremy Hermida/Xavier Nady, LF. Obviously, I don't think Bay is coming back, though the odds are probably close to 50-50 and I do hope I'm wrong. It just seems to me that he's going to get five years and $80 million somewhere -- from Arte Moreno, perhaps? -- and the Sox are not going to be willing to make that kind of commitment to a 31-year-old player whose value is primarily tied up in his power. Nady, 30, is an interesting sleeper coming off his elbow injury; he had a .919 OPS for the '08 Pirates before being dealt near midseason to the Yankees. His teammate, some guy named Bay, was at .894 before he too was traded.

9. Alex Gonzalez, SS. There are some pretty wild rumors about the options the Sox are considering a short, such as signing off-the-charts defender Adrian Beltre to play there (bad idea) or picking up an Orlando Hudson-type and moving Pedroia back to his original position (worse idea). I refuse to believe they're going to sign Marco Scutaro, who will be 35 and coming off the one above-average year of his career, especially since he's a Type A free agent. Unless they surprise us and decide someone like Orlando Cabrera is worth a one-year stopgap, you have to figure Gonzalez will return at a discounted rate, even if Francona did candidly suggest in a recent interview that he's skeptical of what "Gonzi" can provide offensively.

STARTING ROTATION
LHP Jon Lester. As untouchable as untouchable gets. Next question.

RHP Josh Beckett. I'm very curious as to what the Sox believe he will be into his early 30s -- remember, there was concern about the condition of his shoulder when they traded for him before the 2006 season, and he does have his share of mysterious injuries. If we start hearing about serious discussions concerning a contract extension, that will be an encouraging hint that they think he will continue to pitch at his borderline-ace level.

RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka. The lesson has been learned. Mark him down for 14-18 mostly aesthetically unpleasing wins.

RHP Rich Harden. I'd rather have Ben Sheets, but I suspect he's heading to Texas. The hard-throwing 27-year-old was relatively healthy last season, making 26 starts for the Cubs (though he pitched just 141 innings), and his strikeout rate (10.9 per nine innings) would have led the NL had he pitched enough innings. That's the kind of guy you take a gamble on.

RHP Tim Wakefield. Until the inevitable injury, then someone from the Bowden/Tazawa/Doubront crew gets a shot. Or would you prefer Paul Byrd, the three-quel? Didn't think so.

BULLPEN
RHP Jonathan Papelbon. A 1.85 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, 38 saves . . . we should all have such a lousy year. Anyway, next winter is when the real trade rumors will begin.

LHP Hideki Okajima. With his 2.72 career ERA and 1.12 WHIP in three seasons, he'd rank high on the list of the most under-appreciated athletes in Boston. Maybe at the top.

RHP Daniel Bard. Obviously the heir to Papelbon, but the 4.74 ERA and .823 OPS-against in the second half suggest he's not quite ready for the closer's throne.

RHP Kiko Calero. A Type B free agent who at age 34 had a sneaky-great season for the Marlins. But this happens only if Manny Delcarmen is dealt -- perhaps to Florida in a package for Cody Ross or Dan Uggla. I tried to come up with another free agent reliever who might appeal to the Sox, but I saw the names Bobby Howry, Chad Fox, Alan Embree, and Brandon Lyon on the list, flashed back to April '03, and two hours later, woke up in a pool of sweat and tears.

RHP Ramon Ramirez: He had his Wasdin moments, giving up seven homers in a bullpen-high 69.2 innings, but with a 2.84 ERA and a 165 adjusted ERA, he was essentially everything the Sox thought they were getting when they swiped him from the Royals for Coco Crisp. His reputation was that he was death on lefties, but he held righthanders to a .623 OPS and one home run in 127 plate appearances.

RHP Takashi Saito. His WHIP the last three seasons: 0.71, 1.19, 1.35. And he'll be 40 in February. On the other hand, he had a 1.08 ERA and a .638 OPS-against in the second half, he wants to be back, and the Sox seem to want him back.

LHP Dustin Richardson. Outstanding strikeout numbers in Double and Triple A last season (97 in 74 innings), but a rarity among lefties in that he lacks decent breaking stuff and his command comes and goes. Have to figure he'll get a crack at a bullpen job unless Lowell is dealt for a lefty. I can't see the Sox signing Mike Gonzalez since he's a Type A.

BENCH
C Jason Varitek. Please, Tito, resist the urge to overplay him. Meaning more than once a week. Twice at the most. No, make it once.

LF Nady/Hermida. Nady has a career .854 OPS against lefties. Hermida has a career .792 OPS against righties. Gary Roenicke had a career .816 OPS against lefties. John Lowenstein had a career .764 OPS against righthanders. Did I mention the MLB Network has been showing the 1979 World Series a lot lately?

SS Jed Lowrie. I know, they want him to play and prove his health at Pawtucket. But Nick Green probably won't be back, the free agent market is pathetic -- I almost talked myself into Bobby "I Think I Broke It" Crosby at this spot -- and if he's healthy, there's probably no more promising option than Lowrie.

INF/OF acquired in a deal for Lowell and/or Delcarmen: Hey, it took me to the 25th man to come up with my first cop-out. That's pretty good for me. There are few free agent options that look like a decent fit -- Nomahhhh!!! No? They apparently have some interest in Rick Ankiel, who is mildly intriguing despite a .672 OPS last season at age 29. And I bet Ryan Kalish has a role with this team -- perhaps a meaningful one -- before the summer breeze is gone. Wouldn't mind a second year of the Rocco Baldelli experience, either.

FOOTNOTES, EXPLANATIONS, AND PREEMPTIVE EXCUSES

During our weekly chat this afternoon, we discussed the Red Sox' hot stove options, whether Rex Ryan will be crying again come Sunday evening, and why a "Pirate Looks At 40" suddenly resonates more than ever.

Ten free minutes for me, 10 free throwaway lines for you . . .

1. All arguments, real and contrived, have been spouted and shouted about Bill Belichick's gutsy and ill-fated decision to go for . . . well, you know. So I'm going to keep my opinion on the matter simple, then move along, because there's nothing more to see here:

While I had the same reaction you probably did during that split second when it hit you that, yes, Dan Koppen did just snap the ball to Brady, and yes, they are actually going for this -- mine was something like "Holy [cow]," except the word used in my household was not synonymous with "bovine" -- in the stunning aftermath of the loss, I still kept coming back to the thought that by going for it, Belichick, more than anything else, revealed his tremendous respect for both superstar quarterbacks.

He preferred the option of trying to get two yards from Tom Brady rather than trying to keep Peyton Manning from getting 65, 70, whatever it would have taken to reach the end zone.

I can't fault him for that . . . and beyond that, I'm glad the Patriots have a coach who is willing to disregard conventional wisdom in such a tense and crucial moment and do what he thinks is right.

He is not Grady Little.

Seems to me he is the exact opposite.

2. The results are always fascinating and insightful whenever Belichick agrees to be miked up on the sideline, as he was a week ago against the Dolphins. (Love how he foresaw Pat White's involvement in the Dolphins' game plan.) But man, I can't help but imagine the compelling audio had he been miked up this week.

3. Buster Olney is as good as it gets as a baseball writer, and I mean that sincerely -- his smart and newsy blog would be a must-read even without all of the links. But . . .

. . . well, it's just that when he tweeted yesterday that "[the] NYY are not interested in signing Holliday. They'll talk to [agent Scott] Boras to keep other bidders honest, but corner outfield not a priority for them," it was difficult to contain my cynicism, particularly when recent history is given full consideration.

I mean, really? We're going to do this again? We're going to take the Yankees at their word? If a denial of interest isn't a sign that the Yankees are slobbering over Holliday behind clossed, then we haven't been paying attention the last couple of seasons.

The Yankees are playing their patented, "Eh, what do we need him for, we have Bubba Crosby/Nick Swisher?" routine, then swoop in at the last moment and trump any and all offers.

The paranoia of a Boston sports fan in action? Perhaps. But we've seen this movie before with Johnny Damon . . . not to mention its sequel starring Mark Teixeira last year. And both times, Boras was the director.

4. While I can't see the Red Sox going for him unless the sticker price is greatly discounted -- and I believe Ken Rosenthal's suggestion here qualifies -- the idea of Miguel Cabrera is more than intriguing.

He's Manny in his prime, but without the charm.

5. Remember in those gloomy pre-KG days a few seasons ago, when there was talk of the Celtics swinging a deal with the Sixers for Allen Iverson? Yeah, good thing that didn't happen -- The Answer most certainly would not have been here.

I've always had tremendous admiration for Iverson's toughness -- I can't think of another little guy who was so fearless in attacking the rim, save for maybe the more elegant Isiah Thomas -- but apparently that pride that helped him become such a dynamic player is preventing him, at age 34, from recognizing that he's no longer the centerpiece superstar of his youth.

In other words: He should be a great fit with the Knicks.

6. Best sports news of the day? Easy: Royals' Greinke wins AL Cy Young Award.

Thank goodness, they got it right.

The kid had a vintage Pedro season, and around here, you know we don't throw around that phrase or praise lightly.

That he was a nearly unanimous winner -- he earned 25 of 28 first-place votes -- despite having "only" 16 victories for a non-contender is an encouraging example of enlightened thinking.

The "2010 Baseball America Prospect Handbook" arrives in bookstores and mail boxes in late January, but the tease comes roughly a month earlier: The list of the Red Sox' top 30 prospects is set to be revealed on the BA website Dec. 14.

So there you go. Mark your calendars. When you're a baseball junkie, Christmas really does last more than one day. Especially if someone else antes up the cover and on-line subscription prices.

For fans who want a glimpse of the future -- and for certain writers who love keeping each year's edition for future reference, just so they can someday write haughty, know-it-all sentences like, "You know, in 2006, Jeremy Hermida was rated higher than Hanley Ramirez" -- the Prospect Handbook is a must-have annual addition to the baseball library. It is in-depth and serious, impeccably written and researched, a true and trustworthy guide to the finest young players in every franchise's farm system.

In sum, it's awesome. Just buy it already.

Now, with that haphazard endorsement out of the way, we're comfortable addressing the striking reality in regard to one of the Red Sox' grandest possible plans this offseason:

Baseball America's list of the Red Sox' top 30 prospects will make for compelling reading for an opposing general manager in search of knowledge and insight about the Boston player development machine. But it certainly will not match the internal rankings of general manager Theo Epstein and his baseball operations staff.

And it will be of absolutely no use to the one general manager who holds perhaps the most appealing trade chip this winter when it comes to the Red Sox. Because the truth is this:

Jed Hoyer -- Epstein's longtime front-office wingman, the Padres' rookie general manager, and the person who will have an enormous say in where and for whom the great and coveted Adrian Gonzalez plays baseball the next several seasons -- knows the Red Sox as well as the Red Sox know themselves.

And that could make for one fascinating prologue to a blockbuster deal.

There is a theory, a perfectly reasonable one, that Hoyer's institutional knowledge of the Red Sox organization could provide an impenetrable barrier to achieving a deal for Gonzalez, the 27-year-old slugger whose acquisition would give the Red Sox their answer to Mark Teixeira (with the added bonus of ending all "Why didn't we get Teixeira?" sniveling.) Epstein addressed the complexities of talking trade with Hoyer at the general managers meetings, saying, ""We look for the same things in players. It's sometimes easier to make a deal if there are disparities in how players are valued.''

Epstein speaks the truth . . . and yet, I hope, and believe, that this won't be a deal-breaker here. What it should mean is that any negotiations between the Red Sox and Padres for Gonzalez are going to have to be truly honest. There will no suggestions that Michael Bowden is a suitable stand-in for Clay Buchholz. No snake-oil salesmanship of farmhands Baseball America and the like might praise, but whom are considered "fake" prospects within the confines of the Red Sox' baseball ops department.

If he's as competent as his reputation suggests, Hoyer cannot be duped here. He knows the in-house answers, whatever they may be, for why Clay Buchholz wilted in 2008. He knows how Daniel Bard's control problems in Single A were cured. He knows why Lars Anderson struggled in Double A, he knows whether Casey Kelly should pitch or play shortstop, he knows the club's preference between Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish, and he knows so much more than that.

When Hoyer and Epstein talk about a Gonzalez deal-- and c'mon, you know they will -- it will be to involve the real prospects, the ones Hoyer knows Epstein is loath to part with. And should a deal be consummated, I suspect it will be one that both Hoyer and Epstein both feel good about, yet one that also leaves both men a little queasy. Man, I hated to give up that guy, but we had to do it . . . didn't we?

Make no mistake: Gonzalez will bring, as Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman cleverly called it this summer when his name first showed up in trade rumors, the madre lode. And yet, chances are Gonzalez will prove worth whatever package the Red Sox part with. All prospects are essentially lottery tickets, even the truly elite. In the 2002 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America founder Allan Simpson rated his top 10 prospects this way:

1. Josh Beckett, RHP, Marlins
2. Mark Prior, RHP, Dusty Baker's Arm 'n' Limb Meat Grinder Emporium
3. Sean Burroughs, 3B, Padres
4. Hank Blalock, 3B, Rangers
5. Wilson Betemit, SS, Braves
6. Ryan Anderson, LHP, Mariners
7. Juan Cruz, RHP, Cubs
8. Josh Hamilton, OF, Devil Rays
9. Mark Teixeira, 3B, Rangers
10. Carlos Pena, 1B, A's


Joe Mauer was 14th, Marlins shortstop Miguel Cabrera -- yes, shortstop; imagine that now -- was 31st, one spot below KC's Angel Berroa, and Gonzalez was 34th, one spot ahead of the Angels' Casey Kotchman.

So, yeah . . . lottery tickets. Case rested. If Theo has to part with Casey Kelly (is he closer to the next Frankie Rodriguez or closer to the next Zack Greinke?) or Ryan Westmoreland (are the injuries officially a concern?) or frankly, anyone in the organization with legitimate aspirations of playing in Fenway Park someday, he must do it, unless and only unless he's covertly hoarding his chips for a possible Felix Hernandez sweepstakes.

Otherwise, he's got to go get Gonzo. He won't be 28 until May, he's a terrific defender with a pair of Gold Gloves (for what those are worth), and he's coming off a monster season (40 homers, 119 walks, .958 OPS; 28 homers and 1.045 OPS away from the Petco Canyon) while anchoring a lineup that featured no one else more venerable than Will Venable.

For all of his value on the field, he might be the biggest steal in baseball financially. He's due to make $4.75 million in 2010 and $5.5 million in '11, the total of which is roughly what Alex Rodriguez will make during the first two months of next season. Why would the Padres consider dealing such a valuable yet inexpensive ballplayer? The reason is twofold: As former GM Kevin Towers revealed after his apparently amicable departure, the Padres probably are not going to be able to afford Gonzalez down the road since the franchise is likely looking at a $40-million payroll for the foreseeable future.

Beyond that, if they're not in a full-blown rebuilding mode yet, they should be, because it's only a matter of time. Their farm system is depleted -- that Matt Bush-over-Justin Verlander thing didn't work out so well -- and the reason why some think the Padres shouldn't trade Gonzalez is the same reason Hoyer should explore every option: His value will never be higher. Trading Gonzalez's prime for the hope of a brighter future is the proper thing to do.

There should be no fear as to whether Gonzalez can handle the bright and sometimes blinding lights of Boston after spending his first six years in junior varsity baseball territories Texas, and San Diego. This is a kid who was a No. 1 overall pick and once predicted he would hit .420 one season in the minor leagues. He didn't. But it's fair to say his self-confidence has been justified several times over since then. He can make it anywhere.

Here's hoping we get to watch it happen firsthand here in Boston. Sure, Adrian Gonzalez will come at a steep price. That's how it should be for a player of his caliber.

What will be extra intriguing is discovering what constitutes a steep -- but worthwhile -- price to Epstein, for whom bluffing is not an option when he's dealing with an old friend who not only knows what he needs, but knows what he knows as well.

Be sure to stop by our weekly chat at noon Friday, during which we'll discuss the Red Sox' hot stove, the Patriots' annual (at least) showdown with the Colts, the usual media matters, and perhaps even why "Joan -- good idea" might be our favorite line from the most fulfilling hour of television in a long time.