While lounging here watching the Sox bullpen take gasoline and a match to what should have been Justin Masterson's victorious debut, I figured I'd post this long-promised sequel to my look back at the 2002 Baseball America Prospect Handbook. The first part, including a capsule retrospective of the Sox's top prospects from six years ago, can be found here. And yes, Kevin Youkilis really was ranked 28 spots below someone named Seung Song.

The number in parenthesis is that player's rank within his own organization's top 30 prospects, according to BA. Let's restart this with a fun one, and if there are other teams you'd like to see, well, I suppose I do take requests . . .

NEW YORK YANKEES
Phenoms: None. And somewhere, Hank Steinbrenner read this, rattled off a string of expletives, and drop-kicked an intern. He's the best.

Flops: 3B/QB Drew Henson (1), LHP Brandon Claussen (3), OF John-Ford Griffin (4), RHP Adrian Hernandez (13)

. . . and those lingering somewhere in between: 1B Nick Johnson (2), OF Juan Rivera (5), LHP Sean Henn (6), OF Marcus Thames (7), C Dioner Navarro (19), LHP Chase Wright (24)

Six years later: Ah, Henson, the rich man's Chad Hutchinson . . . One of the most touted prep athletes ever, I suspect he would have made it had he picked one sport (football, probably) and stuck with it . . . I'd love Lloyd Carr's honest assessment on who he thought would be the better quarterback when Henson and Tom Brady were sharing the Michigan QB job eight years ago . . . Hernandez, a Cuban defector, was supposed to be the next El Duque. He turned out to be the next Ariel Prieto . . . Rivera and Thames are basically the same player, a righthanded-hitting corner outfielder with above-average power and not many other attributes . . . Johnson was a very good hitter before his limbs started falling off . . . Navarro, now on his third team (the Rays), may still make it. He's only 24 and hit .285 with eight homers in the second half last season . . . Chase Wright looks like he may become the closest thing in Yankees' lore to Bobby Sprowl.

OAKLAND A'S
Phenoms: 1B Carlos Pena (1), RHP Aaron Harang (16), RHP Rich Harden (21)

Flops: RHP Chad Harville (3)

. . . and those lingering somewhere in between: OF Eric Byrnes (2), 2B Esteban German (4), SS Bobby Crosby (5), 2B Mark Ellis (6), RHP Jeremy Bonderman (7), LHP Neal Cotts (14)

Six years later: Harden just blew out an eyelid while reading this. May need reconstructive surgery, out 4 to 6 weeks . . . Sadly, the same lame joke could be made for Crosby. Both have looked like stars when they are healthy - Crosby was the '04 AL Rookie of the Year, and Harden may have the best stuff of any starter in the league, as the Sox saw in Japan - but neither one of them can stay on the field. Crosby hasn't played more than 96 games since his rookie season . . . Was Pena's improbable 46-homer breakthrough for the (Devil) Rays last season for real? Actually, I tend to think it was. He was more productive in Detroit than he got credit for, sometimes it takes some players longer to grow into their ability, and no one's ever questioned his desire. He'll never hit for a high average, but 35-40 homers in '08 seems realistic . . . Harang is a fantasy baseball bargain and a workhorse for the Reds, winning 32 games for a lousy team the past two seasons and taking the NL strikeout title in '06 . . . I haven't read "Moneyball" in a few years, but I seem to remember Billy Beane having a fit after the A's took Bonderman in the first round in '01, and the A's dealt him (along with Pena) to the Tigers barely a year after he was drafted. He has the reputation as being a top-of-the-rotation starter, but he's not: his career ERA+ is 93, and he's had an ERA below the league average just once in six years . . . Few seem to notice, but Ellis is a darned good player, an excellent defender with some pop (he hit 19 homers last year) . . . Byrnes is baseball's version of Jeff Spicoli - actually, scratch that; he'll never out-dude the Weaver brothers - but he's turned into a pretty productive everyday player after spending most of his 20s performing like a big-boy version of Darren Bragg.

Well, at least they got the cover right.

That was my reaction after taking an impromptu spin through the 2002 Baseball America Prospect Handbook the other night while avoiding any real work in my home office. The cover boy, as you might have noticed, happens to be the Red Sox' starting pitcher this afternoon. Josh Beckett* not only was rated the top prospect in the Marlins' system, but he was also the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball.

* - Stealing a Pozterisk yet again, here are two snippets from Beckett's writeup that jumped out at me:

2. "He has a maturity beyond his years, easily trading barbs with older players, writers, and club officials and always looking people in the eye. He's good, knows he's good, and never would think of shrinking from his apparent destiny." Sure sounds like Beckett to me.

Anyway, back on point . . . you don't need a copy of Beckett's baseball resume to know he has justified every word of hype that preceded him to the majors. But check out these names that were ranked in the top 25 of one writer's top 100 prospects list:

Joe Borchard. Ryan Anderson. Nick Neugebauer. Corwin Malone. Dennis Tankersley. Ty Howington. Wilson Betemit.

Betemit, a former hotshot Braves farmhand, is the most successful big leaguer from that crew of who's-hes? and never-weres. He currently serves as A-Rod's rarely utilized stunt double in the Bronx.

Now, I don't mean to bust on Baseball America. I've been a faithful reader of their magazine since I was in college, I own every Prospect Handbook since 2002, and I genuinely respect the work they do and the insight they impart. It's because of their hard work that we fans (and nitwit bloggers) can be informed of the perceived strengths and weaknesses of the likes of Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury (and Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson and . . . ) before they ever set cleat in Fenway.

It's just that I have this theory about evaluating and ranking baseball prospects, and while it is rather rudimentary and probably even obvious, I do believe it's the whole truth:

I think it's fairly easy to spot the superstars-to-be, the Becketts, Miguel Cabreras, and Joe Mauers, but forecasting the future for anyone other than the truly elite is a feat not even the most sharp-eyed scout, adept numbers-cruncher, or clued-in Baseball America columnist can accomplish with any consistency. And that's before you factor in injuries, which seem to derail a couple of top pitching prospects for every one that makes it. In other words: There's just no foolproof way of knowing how good a 20-year-old kid will be at baseball when he's 25. It's a virtually impossible pursuit.

All of that considered, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at some of individual teams' Top 30 prospect lists from that 2002 Handbook. After all, six years later, we should have a pretty accurate picture of how things panned out . . . or, in most cases, didn't pan out. In parentheses is the player's rating within his own organization. I'll probably add a few more teams in the coming days - it's not like we can pass up the chance to remind Yankees fans that 3B/QB Drew Henson was once their Next Big Thing. (Snicker.)

As for today's offerings . . . enjoy, my fellow nerds: