By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

How long has it been since I've done one of these Random Lists of Five thingies? Let's just say that in one of the more recent ones there was a reference to recently burned music CDs. Hey, at least I wasn't still using a Walkman. To the lists ...

Five seasons I could see a prime-of-career Jackie Bradley Jr. duplicating, and I'll spare you J.D. Drew's 2000 season even though it's a decent potential comp:
1. Ken Griffey Sr., 1980: Forget any sports-radio hyperbole comparing the Red Sox' phenom to Junior Griffey. If Bradley's best seasons resemble Griffey Sr.'s, which spanned 1976 to '80, his promise will have been fulfilled. Griffey's '80 season, when he hit .294 with an .818 OPS, 13 homers, 10 triples, 23 steals in 24 attempts, is the standard bearer. And Bradley will be the better defender. (Papa Griffey never won a Gold Glove.)
2. Lyman Bostock, 1977: Murdered at age 27 in September 1978, Bostock will forever remain one of the great what-ifs in baseball history. He played just four major league seasons, the finest of which was spectacular. In 1977, Bostock hit .336 with 14 homers, 62 extra-base hits, 16 steals, and an .897 OPS for the Twins before joining the Angels as a free agent over the winter. Bradley at his best projects to be more patient and a better defender but with perhaps a little lower batting average.
3. Shane Mack, 1992: Red Sox fans may remember Mack as a sore-shouldered flop with mish-mashed 1997 club, but he should be remembered for a string of outstanding seasons with the Twins in the early '90s. In '92, he hit .315 with a .394 OBP, 16 homers and 26 steals, a high-end expectation for Bradley.
4. Jose Cruz, 1983: One of the more underrated hitters of the '70s and early '80s, "Cheo" hit .318 with 14 homers, 30 steals, and a league-high 189 hits while finishing sixth in the NL MVP ballotinng.
5. Jackie Robinson, 1952: Well, the on-base percentage -- a league-best .440 -- is probably unattainable, but the .308 average with 19 homers and 24 steals is more than reasonable. And it just seems right to match him up with the most admirable of Jackies.

Top five selections in the 1990 NHL Draft:
1. Owen Nolan, Nordiques: NHL goal total: 422
2. Petr Nedved, Canucks: NHL goal total: 310
3. Keith Primeau, Red Wings: NHL goal total: 266
4. Mike Ricci, Flyers: NHL goal total: 243
5. Jaromir Jagr, Penguins: NHL goal total: 679 and counting.

Top five selections by the Bruins in the 1991 NHL Draft:
1. Glen Murray. NHL goal total: 227
2. Jozef Stumpel. NHL goal total: 196
3. Marcel Cousineau. NHL goal total. 0. But he did have an assist once.
4. Brad Tiley. NHL goal total: 0. Played 11 NHL games.
5. Mariusz Czerkawski. NHL goal total: 215

Five best draft choices, in order and weighted by where the player was selected, by the Patriots during the Bill Belichick era. (Excluding the 199th overall pick in 2000, the best pick in league history):
1. Rob Gronkowski, 42d overall, 2010: If healthy -- and I hate that if, too -- he's a game-changer, with 38 touchdowns in 43 career games.
2. David Givens, 253d overall, 2002: Had a touchdown catch in seven consecutive postseason games.
3. Vince Wilfork, 21st overall, 2004: Yeah, he was a first-rounder, but at that position, getting the ideal fulcrum for the defensive scheme was an absolute heist.
4. Aaron Hernandez, 113th overall, 2010: A tight end with a receiver's skill-set and a running back's open-field instincts.
5. Dan Koppen, 164th overall, 2003: Played 121 games at center during nine seasons in New England, had Tom Brady's utmost trust.

And the five worst, which actually could all be defensive backs:
1. Chad Jackson, 36th overall, 2006: Traded up to get the Florida receiver. Sixteen picks later, Green Bay, which traded down, chose Greg Jennings.
2. Terrence Wheatley, 62d overall, 2008: Played just 11 games for the Patriots. Are we sure he existed?
3. Shawn Crable, 78th overall, 2008: Limited to six games due to injury, mostly to his matchstick legs.
4. Ron Brace, 40th overall, 2009: How could anyone so large so often be invisible?
5. Brock Williams, 86th overall, 2001: Foreshadowed all the failed draft picks in the defensive backfield to follow.

Five basketball legends who played for the Celtics in the '70s and '80s after making their name elsewhere:
1. Ernie DiGregorio: Averaged 2.4 assists in 10.1 minutes per game in 1977-78, his final year in the league.
2. Dave Bing: Hall of Famer and Pistons great retired after averaging 13.4 ppg in 1977-78,
3. Bob McAdoo: Averaged 20.6 ppg in 20 games for dismal, fractured 1978-79 squad.
4. Tiny Archibald: Made three All-Star teams in five seasons in Boston (1979-83) and averaged 13.8 ppg for 1980-81 champs.
5. Pete Maravich: In 20 games for the 1979-80 Celtics, he averaged 11.5 ppg in his final year at age 32. Can't help but imagine what it would have been like to watch Pistol Pete at the peak of his powers play with Larry Bird.

Five partial player comments from the 1997 Baseball Prospectus annual:
1. On Mariano Rivera: "... I think he needs a better second pitch and more work. The better second pitch is a big issue, because Rivera got hit worst when he fell behind and had to come in with a fastball for a strike. Without one, I think he'll decline further this year.
2. On Trot Nixon: "One of the more overrated prospects in baseball. Nixon has more tools than Home Depot, but he uses them about as well as the government uses tax revenues. His back troubles have damaged his game as well. As Boston's #1 pick in 1993, he'll get plenty of chances to embarrass himself in the majors."
3. On Tim Wakefield: "Three years after nearly washing out of baseball, two years after nearly winning the Cy Young and just months after a temporary demotion to the pen, Wakefield may have found his niche: middle-of-the-rotation innings eater."
4. On Jeff Bagwell: "A fine defender, intelligent baserunner, and one of the best power hitters in the game. Still looks like an adult Bud Bundy ...."
5. On David Ortiz: "... He is very young, and the Twins may want him to have more than a half-season at Double A before they hand him a starting job in the majors, but his upside is very high. Think Dave Parker."

Five players chosen in the first round of the 1995 NHL Draft:
1. Bryan Berard, defenseman, No.1 overall, Ottawa
2. Wade Redden, defenseman, No. 2 overall, NY Islanders
3. Kyle McLaren, defenseman, No. 9 overall, Boston
4. Jarome Iginla, forward, No. 11 overall, Dallas
5. Petr Sykora, forward, No. 18 overall, New Jersey

Five players drafted ahead of Rajon Rondo (21st overall) in the 2006 NBA Draft:
1. Adam Morrison, Charlotte, No. 3 overall: Hey, he did win two championships with the Lakers. He also scored a total of 84 points over those two seasons.
2. Shelden Williams, Atlanta, No. 5: Go ahead. Make the shoulda-drafted-Candice Parker joke. I'll wait.
3. Patrick O'Bryant, Golden State, No. 9: I remember the precise moment I knew he was never going to be a viable backup for the Celtics -- when spent pregame warmups during a game against the Raptors trying to beat Big Baby Davis with crossover moves.
4. Mouhamed Sene, Seattle, No. 10
5. Oleksiy Pecherov, Minnesota, No. 19.

Five most talented receivers (in order) to play for the Patriots since I began paying attention in 1978:
1.Randy Moss (2007-10). 52 games, 50 touchdowns.
2. Terry Glenn (1996-2001). Made it look so easy when he was in the right frame of mind. Telling that when Troy Brown was asked last season which former teammate of his the '12 Patriots could use most, he cited No. 88.
3. Irving Fryar (1984-92).Watch out for those Foxborough trees.
4. Stanley Morgan (1977-89). 534 catches at 19.4 per
5. Wes Welker (2007-12). No, he wasn't a deep threat. But he somehow managed to be an upgrade on the great Troy Brown as a slot receiver, and that's a tribute to his talent as well as his oft-cited determination.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Staff

Today marks two weeks since the frenzied start of NFL free agency, and we required far fewer than 21 days to recognize that the Patriots played the game very well.

They retained cornerback Aqib Talib (one year, $5 million) and tackle Sebastian Vollmer ($8.5 million guaranteed, up to $27 million over four years) on deals that confirmed they were wise in deciding not to franchise either player.

Re-signing both also should ease to some degree any concerns about Talib's character or Vollmer's physical condition. If the Patriots trust them enough to keep them around, that's reassuring enough.

It's difficult to resist coveting the big splash in free agency -- the closest the Patriots came this year was signing Danny Amendola as Wes Welker's successor in the slot, though 33-year-old four-time All-Pro Adrian Wilson is the most decorated arrival. Pursuing the big name with corresponding big salary has rarely been their approach, save for Rosevelt Colvin in 2003 and Adalius Thomas in '07.

As they've often proven, the value of retaining players who are known commodities on the field and off is often the smartest play, which is why I didn't blink at Kyle Arrington's $6.5 million signing bonus. All it suggests is that they know and appreciate his work as a slot corner, and they value it highly.

All of that said ... I hope there's more to come. Free-agency has been fairly fulfilling, even for those among us who get a nostalgic tear in our eye whenever Wes Welker's hair plug commercial comes on the radio. But there are so many interesting names still available at possibly bargain rates -- for instance, might ex-Raiders Michael Huff and Darrius Heyward-Bey thrive in a competent organization? -- that the current situation seems like a golden chance for the Patriots to fortify the depth chart even further beyond the Will Sviteks and Niko Koutevideses

While we wait to see what -- or who -- is next, here are a few quick thoughts on five who have either arrived, departed, or remain in limbo.

Brandon Lloyd: Am I alone in hoping they bring him back? Sure, his down-field ability was underwhelming (this guy averaged 18.8 yards per catch two years ago?), and you've all heard the chatter about his, um, quirky personality. But he still managed 74 receptions and 911 yards as essentially the fourth option when everyone was healthy, he was masterful at making catches along the sidelines, and there's mounting evidence that adjusting to playing with Tom Brady isn't as easy as it should be for previously accomplished receivers. Donald Jones is an interesting pickup, and he might also be Sam Aiken. Bring back Lloyd. For a perceived underachiever, he was pretty productive

Danny Amendola: I still say the price the market set for Welker was a price the Patriots should have paid. I also recognize I'll probably be proven wrong, if not this year than next, since I strongly suspect the Patriots have seen some regression in Welker that isn't yet evident to all of us who are citizens of the couch on fall Sundays. Amendola, 4 1/2 years Welker's junior, is a talented (if fragile) slot receiver, and if he can stay on the field, he shouldn't take him long to build rapport with Brady. Whether he can do it to the degree that Welker did -- not to mention as immediately -- is an answer we'll have to wait until September to receive.

Adrian Wilson: Hello, my name is Hypocrite. At the advent of free agency, I listed Wilson as one of five players the Patriots shouldn't pursue. So why was I so excited when the Patriots signed him the same day he visited? A couple of reasons. First, I'm fascinated at how they plan to use him. Will he be that safety/linebacker hybrid that Tank Williams was once supposed to be? Even if he's lost a step or two, with his instincts and much-needed hitting ability, he could thrive in that role. And the other reason? I figure if Bill Belichick pursues another safety when Ed Reed is available, he must have tremendous respect and even admiration for that player. I'll be glad to be wrong about this one. Already am, actually.

Leon Washington: I wonder if Danny Woodhead would still be here if he had any effectiveness at all as a return man. As it is, by signing the 30-year-old former Jet and Seahawk who averaged 29 yards per kickoff return last season, the Patriots have quietly addressed what was one of their biggest flaws last season.

John Abraham: How long has Abraham been around? He was one of the Jets' four first-round picks in 2000 -- the other three being Chad Pennington, Anthony Becht, and Shaun Ellis. (The Patriots have one pick remaining from that draft. He wears No. 12.) Abraham will be 35 in May, but he was still very effective last season for the Falcons (10 sacks, 6 forced fumbles, 7 passes defensed), and he has the ideal size to thrive as a situational rusher in the Patriots' system. Should Dwight Freeney end up in Denver, Abraham could end up a bargain for the Patriots. If that happens, the Patriots offseason is an unqualified success no matter what.

Don't forget: Chat at 2:30. So, you know, 2:35 ... 2:38 at the latest.

Today's media column on the Bruins' massive ratings on NESN is here. Talked to Andy Brickley, not exactly a disinterested observer, about why he believes fans in Boston came back so quickly after the lockout. Here is one thought from Brick that I didn't use in the column, on how the accessibility of the players seemed to accelerate the fans' forgiveness.

"One of the things you try to do is expose these guys so that the fans get to know these players and their personalities,'' said Brickley. "I don’t think a Belichickian approach works in hockey. Everybody knows that hockey players are salt-of-the-earth people. But they’re in the community, and fans have access. They live in town and are out and about in town but they live the right way. They’re out amongst their fanbase and you get to know them. That matters to people."

Because today's column was a one-topic deal, here are a few items I wanted to touch on but didn't have the room. I may make this a regular Friday feature. Consider them the deleted scenes:

ESPN formally announced the hiring of Ray Lewis as an NFL analyst/personality this week, a story Sports Illustrated's Richard Deitsch was all over several weeks ago. While his history makes him something of a controversial choice, his appeal to ESPN is obvious -- he's a truly great player with the charisma to succeed. I'm curious how they'll use him -- I supect he'll be turned into a fake-preaching cartoon character designated to give "inspirational speeches'' to various teams and players. I do hope he's not a significant part of the "Monday Night Football'' broadcast -- Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden tandem is just fine as is. And it will probably be an adjustment for Lewis, getting less camera time now in an actual TV gig than he did all those years playing to the cameras before, during, and after Ravens games.

The NFL Network apologized Wednesday, a day after someone on their set -- believed to be Warren Sapp -- commented in less-than-network-friendly language about a segment that was underway featuring Scott Pioli discussing the Patriots' philosophy in team-building. While Pioli, who worked in the Patriots front office under Bill Belichick during the three Super Bowl victories, was talking with host Scott Hanson, Sapp The Voice could be heard whispering, “It’s the same [expletive] segment we had Mike Lombardi do. The [expletive] Bill Belichick [expletive] angle.” Chris Rose presented the apology, saying in part, "Last night during some live programming, we accidentally aired an expletive. It will not happen again." I suppose the apology was necessary, but what the network should really apologize for is continuing to employ Sapp. It's obvious why information about the Patriots matters -- insight about what they do and how they've maintained their run of success for more than a decade is at a premium. No one is asking much about the 2002 Tampa Bay Bucs these days, you know?

The rumor that Bob Ryan is co-hosting a show on 1510 is not accurate. He is doing six hits a week with Marty Tirrell on Yahoo! Sports Radio's "Calling All Sports,'' which is broadcast on 1510. But it's not a full-time thing, and he says he doesn't want one. He is expected to join Sean Grande as the color analyst on the Celtics-Bobcats game Saturday night on WEEI, possibly in an every-other-quarter role with ESPN's Ryen Russillo. They will be filling in for Cedric Maxwell, who is being honored by the Atlantic-10.

Regarding Bill Simmons's three-day Twitter suspension by his ESPN bosses for a series of tweets criticizing Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman's battle with Skip Bayless on the abomination known as "First Take,'' I'll stick to what I more or less said on ... well, Twitter. Maybe as an employee Simmons should have had more discretion, and I'm sure he was warned before. (He was previously suspended for ripping WEEI, which has a partnership with ESPN). But man, was he ever right. Kudos to him for speaking the truth.

Dale Arnold, Gerry Callahan, and Kirk Minihane is a very good show. As we heard this morning, Callahan and Minihane alone (with the latter handling getting in and out of the breaks and other duties that the absent John Dennis does well) might be even better. If there was any concern before this week regarding how to repair the morning show, there shouldn't be now. Seems to me they've found two solutions.

Looking for a Ted Sarandis update? You know you have, and we've got one for you. The former voice of Boston College basketball and WEEI evening host (among other gigs) will debut a new college basketball program on WATD 95.9 beginning this Sunday at 9 p.m. Titled "College Basketball Tonight,'' it is co-hosted by former BC coach Al Skinner and will air through the end of the month. It also will be streamed online at hoopville.com.

Jerry Remy won't be part of NESN's spring training Red Sox broadcasts over the weekend. The network said it is because of a previously planned family commitment. Jim Rice will fill in tonight against the Twins. It's one of their co-produced telecasts, so Twins analyst Ron Coomer will team up with Rice. Don Orsillo will split time with Twins play-by-play announcer Dick Bremer. Orsillo and Rice will handle Sunday's game with the Rays. Guess a Rays legend like Ryan Rupe, Tanyon Sturtze or Julio Lugo wasn't available to share the booth.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Ten free minutes for me, 10 free NFL throwaway lines for you ...

1. It's easy to daydream about Ed Reed joining the Patriots ? he's Ed Reed! after all, and we've been doing it pretty much since he was passed up for Daniel Graham (a need and a solid player) in the 2002 draft. But is it crazy to suggest that the available former Ravens safety that the Patriots should be pursuing is actually Bernard Pollard? He keeps getting better and better -- he was essentially roster fodder in Kansas City and Houston before becoming a key cog in the Ravens' championship defense. His ferocious style, which does not need to be rehashed here, is something the Patriots desperately need in their defensive backfield. I'd like to see it happen, as weird as it would be.

2. Of course, it might be awkward to bring Pollard here after the carnage he's caused to the Patriots through the years. Though he's an introspective, articulate, likeable guy in person – I know, I know, you don't want to hear that – I think Chris Gasper hit it on the head when we were discussing it after Wednesday's "Boston Sports Live'' program. Bringing Pollard to the Patriots would be equal to Bill Laimbeer joining the Celtics in, say, 1991. Some fences are beyond repair.

3. So about Danny Amendola on the Day After. I probably haven't given him enough credit -- anyone who once had 15 catches in a game, as he did last year in Week 2 against the Redskins, has some legitimate ability, and he shouldn't be pigeonholed as just a slot guy. He'll be an asset, perhaps a very valuable one, provided two things happen: He avoids the same kind of freakish injuries similar to those that have gotten Jacoby Ellsbury slapped with an unfair injury-prone label. And he gets on the same page with Tom Brady instantly, which Welker did and few others have done.

4. I'm sure the Patriots will get the receiver depth chart straightened out and bolstered, whether it's by signing a couple of unsung Donnie Jones types or using a high pick on one of the several promising speedsters in this year's draft. And I'm not as down on Brandon Lloyd as the majority seems to be. But man, it's tough to look at that Denver roster right now, with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and now Welker, and not have some envy.

5. The interest in Joshua Cribbs and the news that Seahawks kick returner Leon Washington will visit Foxborough Thursday suggests that the Patriots are emphasizing greater production on kick returns in the coming season. Which is a welcome development. After watching the likes of Devin McCourty scramble to get to the 20 too many times last year, I was almost to the point of wishing they'd bring back Laurence Maroney or Bethel Johnson for the sole purpose of returning kicks.

6. Aaron Hernandez has the talent, the contract, and now, the responsibility. I can't recall the Patriots having a more versatile offensive player in my lifetime (Kevin Faulk or Andy Johnson may get some votes, I suppose), but with Welker gone, it's imperative that he remains healthy and becomes more reliable in big games.

7. If Mike Lombardi gives up anything higher than a fourth-round pick for Ryan Mallett, he'll be back on the NFL Network before he knows it.

8. Ultimately, Matt Cassel will be regarded as a bust in Kansas City, his 1-7 record as a starter during his final season the last and lasting memory of his time there. But it's more complicated than that – Cassel did have one outstanding season among his four, throwing for 3,116 yards and 27 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions in 2010 while winning 10 of his 15 starts. Don't know about you, but I'd welcome him back as Brady's backup.

9. I'll miss Welker in the same way I miss Troy Brown -- it's never fun to say goodbye to an incredibly productive, tough, dedicated, disciplined, bright player. Yes, he left for a rival, and a championship eluded him. But there were some pretty great times during his six seasons here, and he should always be remembered well.

10. As for today's Completely Random Football Card:

If you're a fan of the semi-annual, whenever-we-can-get-a-team-to-agree-to it "Hard Knocks" series on HBO, you may remember being introduced Amendola in 2008, when his attempt to make the Cowboys as a rookie free agent was one of the chief story lines. Like Welker with the Chargers, he didn't stick his first time and had to fight his way into the league.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

They didn't really want him. And in the end, he didn't want them.

Oh, sure, the Patriots would have taken Wes Welker back literally on their terms -- say, two years, $14 million, or whatever the terms of that reportedly longstanding take-it-or-beat it offer happened to be.

[Update: Greg Bedard is reporting it was for two years and $10 million, an insult by NFL salary standards that essentially dared Welker to find something better.]

Based on what we know at the moment, the offer was either an intentional slap in the face, or a miscalculation that had little to do with the actual dollars, and everything to do with respect.

Did they imagine their offer -- apparently singular, impersonal and nonnegotiable -- would frustrate Welker so much that he'd take a cheap deal elsewhere just so he'd never have to deal with them again?

If the reported terms of Welker's new contract with the Denver Broncos are correct -- two years, $12 million, and that's not per year but total -- then no other conclusion can be drawn.

Perhaps it's lost in the shock of his departure -- make that the shock of the price of his departure -- but right now there seems no other logical explanation for this other than Welker's desire to pay back the Patriots for their refusal to pay him.

They thought he would be their bargain. Instead, they drove him to become a rival's bargain.

And like that, the once-perfect marriage between Welker and the Patriots is shattered.

This is what happens when a business-first mentality backfires, when human nature is discarded as irrelevant. The Patriots valued Welker at a certain, specific price, a price much lower than a receiver who averaged 112 receptions per season as a central figure to one of the most prolific offenses the NFL has known would seem to warrant.

If ever there were a time to make a small exception to their rigid salary structure and appease their franchise quarterback who less than three weeks ago restructured his contract to give the Patriots the leeway to do such things as, oh, keep his most trusted target at a slightly higher sticker price than the numbers crunchers might prefer, it's now, in this flat-cap season in which they have roughly $15 million to use on free agents.

They could have done it. It wouldn't have irreparably altered the salary structure. Yet they didn't. They really didn't want Wes Welker anymore, at least not enough to confirm it with cash.

Ten million dollars per season would have been fair given that he made $9.4 million last year. Instead, they offered him two years and a $4.4 million pay cut. You'd be angry too. This isn't the Patriots version of the Ray Allen/Celtics breakup. The Celtics made Allen the best offer.

The whole ugly process drove Welker away, and the thank-you message from Peyton Manning should be arriving at Linda Holliday's Twitter account any moment now.

Kudos to John Elway and the Broncos for playing the waiting game brilliantly and getting a bargain, for Welker will make less in two years than new Miami trinket Mike Wallace will make in one.

The Patriots are not in the business of paying for past performance, and that's almost always smart. But save for some high-profile drops, Welker is still a pass-catching machine in the slot, and anyone who thinks someone such as Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola is capable of matching his production simply isn't giving him his due.

Yet the way the Patriots handled this suggest they're skeptical of future performance even as he's coming off the fourth-best receiving season in franchise history.

They wouldn't give him what he felt he was worth, even if it meant that Welker, his disdain hundreds of degrees past mild at this point, would join forces with arguably the Patriots' chief rival in the AFC next season, not to mention Brady's chief rival as the greatest quarterback of this generation.

Wes Welker, wearing that traffic-cone orange jersey and catching pass after pass in the slot from Manning? Yeah, it's going to take a lot of Sundays before that scene looks right.

But Welker is going to Colorado, and we're left with one more reminder that there's no room for sentimentality beneath the Patriots' salary cap. Bill Belichick again had the cold discipline not to exceed the value he set for the particular player, and I suppose it should be noted that such an approach has generally served him well.

Letting beloved veterans depart unceremoniously has rarely come back to haunt the franchise during their prolonged, almost unfathomable run of championship contention virtually every season in the salary cap era. You want nostalgia?, they seem to ask. Fine, but enjoy going 8-8.

Fiscal responsibility is the price of winning. Veterans they have paid -- Logan Mankins, Vince Wilfork -- had to fight for every dollar, and long-term deals for younger players have inevitably proven bargains (compare Rob Gronkowski's salary to Jared Cook's, or Dannell Ellerbe's to Jerod Mayo's).

But this feels ... different, and not just because Welker is now someone else's bargain.

Maybe it's because the Patriots at the moment have a shell-casing of a receiving corps that must be giving Brady (who must be livid) serious Reche Caldwell flashbacks, or maybe it's because Welker owns the top five reception seasons in franchise history and three of the top five receiving yardage seasons, or maybe it's because it took him all of six seasons to exceed predecessor and 13-year Patriot Troy Brown's franchise record for receptions, or maybe it's because he just seems like a Patriots lifer even if he did have previous stops in San Diego and Miami before arriving here before the 2007 season, but the timing of his departure just doesn't feel right.

It's too soon. There's unfinished business. Welker was part of some great times during his six seasons here, but I don't need to remind you that he never won a Super Bowl. That lack of a title does complicate his legacy, especially because he had game-altering drops in their last two season-ending losses, in Super Bowl XLVI against the Giants and in this past season's AFC Championship defeat at the hands of the Ravens.

It's probably not fair, but my enduring image of him isn't of one of his 672 regular-season receptions, but of him fighting back tears in the bowels of Lucas Oil Stadium, the picture of devastation yet answering every question after the last Super Bowl loss.

Now, there are new images popping to mind, mental ones of him heading toward the mountains with vengeance on his mind and catching Manning pass after Manning pass and getting down low and zipping past defensive backs and linebackers who can't understand how he eludes them.

It was a joy to watch him play for six seasons in New England. Yet in the end, the Patriots were fine with letting him elude them, too. I'll let you know when I fully comprehend why.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

My general policy when it comes to evaluating Patriots personnel matters is this:

Ditto To Whatever Bedard Said.

And he -- that being Greg Bedard, the Globe's NFL columnist -- has a typically insightful, reasonable, detailed take today on the state of the Patriots roster and how exactly they should fill their various voids via free agency and the draft.

If you haven't read it, well, sprint the heck out of here and absorb some real knowledge first before you dive into my usual pecked-out heaves of conjecture and fantasy.

No, really, go. I'll wait.

(Plays 103 games of Temple Run while simultaneously watching two episodes of "Arrested Development" on Netflix. Man, Buster is the greatest.)

OK, you're back? Appreciate the return. Now that we're all properly informed, let's get to some fun speculation on the players the Patriots should and shouldn't sign as the "tampering period" ends and NFL free agency formally commences at 4 p.m. with what hopefully will be a free-for-all.

I have my lists of five players they should sign and five they shouldn't -- the presumption being in all cases that the terms are reasonable for both the player and the Patriots -- and man, let me tell you, it wasn't easy.

I would love to see them go after Greg Jennings and Josh Cribbs, to name two I ultimately excluded; I just couldn't convince myself that they will. I even thought about a Richard Seymour reunion for a brief moment before recognizing about 93,000 reasons why it won't happen.

Here's my five and five, with the caveat that I hope and believe there will be some fascinating surprises. Hit me with yours in the comments or via Twitter @GlobeChadFinn.

FIVE THE PATRIOTS SHOULD SIGN
Wes Welker: The closer we get to 4 p.m., the more I believe we'll be hearing news about a five-year, $45 million deal with the Colts or Broncos in the coming days. And while Welker isn't irreplaceable -- I believe the more frequent drops of catchable passes are a sign of subtle regression -- he is still a tremendous asset to the Patriots and Tom Brady, and it blows my mind that so many seem willing to throw the talented, inconsistent Aaron Hernandez into the slot and send Welker on his way. Welker owns the top five seasons in franchise history in terms of receptions, with his 118 catches in 2012 ranking as third-best. He has three of the top five in receiving yards, with last season's 1,354-yard output ranking as fourth-best. He is still an incredibly -- heck, historically -- productive player, and if you're taking him for granted now, mark my words, you'll regret that when he's putting up those numbers elsewhere and the Patriots are learning that not all slot receivers are built to do what he has done.

Aqib Talib: Yeah, I'm wary, too. Of the baggage, of his inability to stay on the field when the Patriots needed him most last season, of how he'll handle long-term security. But ... well, they need him, and they know him now, and he did solidify the defensive backfield (he seemed to play very well in tandem with safety Devin McCourty), and unless they want to get in on the upscale bidding for Sean Smith or believe Nnamdi Asomugha can still play, it makes sense to bring him back and hope he stays on the field and behaves himself away from it.

David Nelson: In three career games against the Patriots, Nelson has eight catches for 107 yards and no touchdowns. I actually thought his output was more impressive than that, because the rangy 6-foot-5-inch University of Florida product always seems to make a good impression. He's coming off a torn ACL that ended his season in Week 1 last season, but if healthy, he'd provide a useful big target for Tom Brady. He could be a savvy, inexpensive pickup later on in the free agent process.

Osi Umenyiora: Dwight Freeney would be my first choice to fill the role of relatively pricey situational pass rusher, but the suspicion is that he rejoins the Cult of Peyton in Denver. Umenyiora, who had nine sacks in nine games last year, 40.5 over the past four, and is vowing to be the Defensive Player of the Year next season, would be a heck of a consolation prize.

Kenny Phillips: An interesting name, I think. A versatile, talented safety who might be had at a bargain rate because of his injury history. He missed nine games with a sprained right MCL last season for the Giants and required microfracture surgery on the same knee in 2009. There's risk, but the 26-year-old former first-rounder could conceivably help more than some of the bigger-name veterans on the market such as Charles Woodson.

FIVE THE PATRIOTS SHOULD NOT SIGN
Victor Cruz: He's a very easy player to root for because of his winding path to success and his appreciation for his place in the game, and it would be a blast to see the UMass product make New England his football home again. (Cruz had a huge and vocal cheering section at the 2011 regular-season game between the Patriots and Giants at Gillette Stadium.) And he would be the perfect successor to Welker. So why is he on this side of the list? The cost. It's simply too much, and that's without even considering the salary he'll demand. Cruz is a restricted free agent who was tendered by the Giants, meaning the Patriots would lose their first-round pick as compensation. There's a reason no one has signed a restricted free agent since Laveranues Coles went to the Redskins in 2003. It's generally detrimental to team-building.

Danny Amendola: Just because he went to the same college as Welker and runs similar routes to Welker and has some of the same physical attributes as Welker doesn't mean he is Welker. He's an injury-prone, less-expensive consolation prize if Welker signs elsewhere, and frankly, it's not much of a consolation at all.

Adrian Wilson: He was a wonderful player for a long time, a five-time Pro Bowler and four-time All-Pro, and it's shame the Cardinals were so often irrelevant that his only real exposure came during their improbable run to Super Bowl XLIII. But the reality is that his best days are behind him. He'll be 34 in October and lost significant playing time as the 2012 season went on. This wouldn't be akin to bringing in 30-year-old Rodney Harrison in 2003. It would be akin to bringing in Rodney Harrison in 2007.

James Harrison: He's 35 in May, injury-prone, doesn't fit their scheme, and replaced Joey Porter as the Steeler who talked the most junk about Tom Brady. Pass. Let him become another team's rapidly declining mistake. He'd make a great Jet.

Ed Reed: Oh, let me tell you, if he did somehow end up with the Patriots, I'd reverse field on this like ... well, like Reed running back a Ben Roethlisberger pick and be as excited as the rest of you that Bill Belichick finally brought aboard one of his presumed all-time favorites. But while I still have my relative wits about me, I can't help but think that the time has passed, that bringing in an oft-injured safety who will be 35 when the season kicks off isn't the smartest way to utilize that cap room, especially since it would probably require moving McCourty back to cornerback. Because we're talking about one of the most talented, brightest, and instinctive players ever to play the position, I'll give the Patriots the benefit of the doubt if Reed does end up here. But if he doesn't, and gets big money elsewhere, it might just feel like a bullet dodged.

Tom Brady signed a three-year, $27 million contract extension with the Patriots until 2017, freeing up cap space for the team. Watch my discussion about the deal with CineSport's Noah Coslov.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Tom Brady, as adept at diplomacy as he is at throwing a football, has never proclaimed publicly that the Patriots absolutely must retain a certain player, at least as far as I can recall.

Surely Brady shares his blunt personnel opinions with Bill Belichick far away from us media types -- in fact, if the Patriots aren't soliciting them from the brilliant, decorated quarterback, they're not as thorough as we believe they are.

But publicly? No, I can't recall him offering much more than casual praise and boilerplate plaudits. The closest he may have come was before the 2006 season when Deion Branch was locked in the contract battle that eventually led to a trade to Seattle and an unforgivable reliance on the likes of Reche Caldwell the following season.

Even then, I don't believe Brady ever came close to saying "We have to have Deion,'' at least when the cameras and microphones were on. It's not his style.

I bring this up now because I was curious whether that diplomatic policy might change this offseason.

There are few quarterback/receiver tandems in NFL history that have produced to the degree that Tom Brady and Wes Welker have during the latter's six seasons in Foxborough. Welker has 672 regular-season receptions (123 coming in 2009, when Matt Cassel filled in during the year the unthinkable happened.)

He had what felt something like a down year for him last season -- and he still pulled in 118 catches for 1,354 yards, one of the greatest statistical seasons a Patriots receiver has ever had. He's almost 32, and it feels like he drops more passes than he used to in big moments, and you know what? He remains absolutely essential to what the Patriots do.

No one knows that more than Brady. The quarterback trusts him implicitly, and if ever there were a player on whose behalf Brady would make a Don't Let Him Get Away speech, wouldn't it be Welker or no one, ever?

I bring this up not because Brady has made such a speech. He hasn't. Instead, he did something more. He put his money where his mouth wasn't.

The bombshell by Peter King (so this is why we still read him) that Brady had agreed to a three-year, $27 million contract extension, taking him through 2017 and that 40th birthday he's always said he wanted to play beyond, saves the Patriots $15 million toward the cap over the next two years.

But Brady's extension -- the second time in his career he's reworked a deal for salary cap relief, the first coming in 2005 -- does so much more than that.

It allows the Patriots, who are reportedly $23 million under the cap this year, more flexibility in retaining their key free agents, from Welker to Aqib Talib to Sebastian Vollmer to Danny Woodhead, to the point that if someone departs, chances are it will be because they didn't value the player as much as we thought rather than because of a price they couldn't meet.

It also allows the Patriots the possibility of adding both quality and quantity when free agency begins March 12, a year in which the flat cap (roughly $121 million) will prevent the majority of teams from making significant moves without paring their roster.

There will be bargains to be found, and here's hoping they find a few unheralded gems as they did during the 2000-01 offseason, when the likes of Mike Vrabel, David Patten, Roman Phifer (who, as Chris Gasper pointed out on Boston Sports Live today, they never have replaced) and Antowain Smith came aboard for the most improbable Super Bowl run in NFL history.

But they can also afford to go to the ritzy shopping district, as they did before the '03 season when they added game-changer Rodney Harrison at safety and Rosevelt Colvin at linebacker.

Patriots fans can peruse the free agent lists now know that daydreams may become reality.

Perhaps an Ed Reed acquisition became more realistic today. Maybe Mike Wallace will come aboard as the deep threat they have lacked since Randy Moss's exit. Would Paul Kruger be a fit? Anything is possible.

While a cynic might note that Brady literally can afford to make such financial sacrifices, what with Gisele being as successful in her field as he is in his, it's a fairly extraordinary gesture given the going-rate for franchise quarterbacks nowadays. It will look even better if the Ravens lose Reed or Kruger to the Patriots because they must meet the demands of postseason star Joe Flacco.

He's a willing bargain, because being a bargain gives him a better chance at something that matters far more to him than money -- winning that fourth championship, and maybe one or two more beyond.

Brady's decision benefits his team, it benefits him in his quest to be the greatest who ever played, and it may just benefit his trusted buddy Wes, whom Brady undoubtedly believes is crucial to that championship quest.

Maybe he hasn't actually said as much. But his actions speak louder than any verbal statement he could possibly have made.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Realized the other day that it's been about three years since I last pulled together a mailbag. Not sure why I got away from it -- they're always fun to do, and I'm inexcusably awful at staying on top of email these days, so I figure this is a good way to catch up on some of it. Other questions arrived via Twitter as well as outtakes from the Friday chat. We'll do another one before 2016, I promise. In the meantime, let's get to it, and keep the questions coming ...

Beyond the fact that it is creepy do you have a problem with sportswriters jumping all over themselves to document the increase in body mass of Bryce Harper and Mike Trout? I get that it is a "story" in the sense that these are two of the biggest stars in baseball, but at the same time if these writers were reading stories written in this manner that were published back in 1998 there would be a chorus of "we should have known betters". Are "BEST SHAPE OF THEIR CAREER" stories really that enticing? Or just that easy? -- Neil (DC)

"Best shape of their career" is of course one of the great recurring cliches of spring training, at least unless you're talking about Felix Doubront, aka Southpaw Guapo. The guys at "Hardball Talk'' especially have a great bit of fun with that particular spring-training narrative, and it's understandable, but in the case of Trout in particular, it's actually a worthwhile storyline. He came in at 241 pounds, which is huge given that he's a rangy center fielder and one of the most electric and efficient basestealers we've ever seen. For someone coming off a historically brilliant rookie season, it's a bit jarring to see him make such a drastic change to his physique. His first year was so incredible that it's a reasonable to ask whether he will ever have a better one. If he slips a bit this year -- and as Baseball Prospectus's Ben Lindbergh writes today, it's reasonable to expect that he will -- there will be questions about his offseason workout regimen, whether that's fair or not.

Chad, the likelihood of all the things you say in your Unconventional Preview column today that need to happen for the Red Sox to be a winning team actually happening is remote. Like winning the lottery remote.
-- Your Name

Sure. But I don't think all of those things -- everyone staying healthy, the Victorino/Napoli/Drew newbies bouncing back, Buchholz and Lester thriving -- will happen. But I think it's reasonable to expect that, oh, half of it does. And if Lester finds his old form but Buchholz can't stay healthy, Victorino hits like he did in '11 while Napoli needs a walker by midseason, Ellsbury is an MVP candidate while Papi gets hurt, that sort of split -- they still have a chance to be pretty good.Everything went wrong last year. They won 18 of their final 60 games. They lacked more than talent. They lacked competence. They will be much better in both regards this season.

Hope you're right with your prediction of 87 wins [for the Red Sox]. Maybe it's the pre-2004 in me popping up, but I'm not so optimistic. I'm old and old-school when it comes to baseball, and a shortstop who can save 50 runs a year really appeals to me. I should not judge Stephen by J.D., but I drew my conclusions by watching the former No. 7 and having him on a few Rotisserie teams. Except for the grand slam [in the 2007 ALCS against the Indians], of course, almost as big a hit as David Ortiz's homer in the first inning of Game 7 vs. the Yankees.
-- Peter S.

If Iglesias saves 50 runs over the course of a season, he will be the greatest defensive shortstop in the history of baseball, bar none. Brendan Ryan -- a decent comp for what Iglesias might ultimately become -- led the majors in Defensive Runs Saved by a shortstop last year ... with 27. Iglesias's sensational defense simply will not compensate for his wet noodle bat at this point. Give Drew a chance. If his ankle is right, he'll be capable at shortstop and an asset in the lineup.

I agree with your feelings on a trade involving either Paul Pierce or Kevin Garnett for guys with questionable attitudes. It's just incredibly frustrating as a Celtics fan to see this team continue to fail to get a decent true center. Garnett doesn't count. He's told you he's really a 4; and at age 36 I think he might collapse from exhaustion banging around at the 5, basically by himself. I like Danny Ainge, but am I crazy to say he has completely failed in this regard? The best center we've had since Perk has been a 39-year-old Shaq. Is it really that hard?
-- Bob P.

You know ... it kind of is that hard. The results haven't been great, but given how challenging it is to fill in a roster already dotted with highly-compensated stars, I have no problem with the process. Trying to wring a little more high-quality play out of Shaq, Rasheed Wallace, and even Jermaine O'Neal as complementary players to the Garnett-Pierce-Allen-Rondo core made a lot of sense. It was something Red would have done, and did, with players like Pete Maravich, Bill Walton, Scott Wedman, or the Lakers with a guy like Bob McAdoo. It just didn't happen to work, but because it's so difficult to find a decent big man -- I mean, Michael Olowakandi was a No. 1 overall pick, Todd Fuller went ahead of Kobe Bryant, and on and on -- that it seems the best way to go is to take that risk on a player who actually has accomplished some things.

No longer sold that Jose Iglesias is the shorttop of the future. He is more likely the next Rey Ordonez. I say let Drew man the job until Xander Bogaerts is ready, because he is the SS of the future. Or until they convert Will Middlebrooks to 1B and Bogaerts to 3B, when Deven Marerro is ready at SS. Either way, Iglesias is not the answer. If he can't hit AAA pitching after 2 years, he's a lost cause.
-- Peter G.

I don't know that he's a lost cause. While comparing him to Ozzie Smith or Alan Trammell at the same age, as his defenders have done, simply does not work (Ozzie was in the majors after one minor league season, and Trammell hit .300 at age 22 in his third full season). And anyone who thinks being the next Rey Ordonez is a compliment was familiar with him only from Web Gems. He had a .600 OPS in the majors -- miserable, and yet better than Iglesias's in Triple A after two years. I suppose there's a glimmer of hope in the Omar Vizquel comps -- he had just a .598 OPS in Triple A. But the hunch here is he gets passed by Bogaerts, and with Deven Marrero getting a chance to advance quickly, it's now or never for Iglesias with the Red Sox.

Given the media's recent (last two seasons) predictions of grandeur, why exactly should The Nation listen now that they predict A Bridge To Nowhere?
-- BigONo

Depends who you're listening to in the media. Lot of reasonable voices out there who explain their thinking -- PeteAbe, Gordon Edes, Alex Speier, and many others. I try to be among them. The "Best Team Ever'' stuff is the work of headline writers trying to get you to buy the paper. Be discerning in who you read and who you believe. Also, read and believe me, always.

I enjoy your coverage of the radio wars. While I listen to both stations the question I have is why is Jason Wolfe not taking a huge hit for WEEI?s troubles? A lot of this is on him and his decisions.
-- Howard F.

Been getting this question a lot lately, for obvious reasons. Jason played a huge role in WEEI's success, and also contributed to the institutional arrogance that put them into their current position. But I think he is taking a huge hit -- he had to fire Glenn Ordway, someone with whom he had a long, successful, lucrative run, and presumably someone who is a good friend. That couldn't have been easy, and it won't be his last difficult task. If he does survive this, and I actually believe he should, some of the burden should be off him. These recent decisions are on Jeff Brown, Entercom Boston's VP market manager and Jason's boss, and if they don't work beyond saving a few bucks, he deserves as much heat as Jason is receiving.

When I look back on Celts after 1st Big 3, I see Len Bias, Reggie Lewis and a bum lottery ping-pong ball. Can't the Celts hope for better draft luck next time around?
-- Duncan

It's certainly overdue -- perhaps sending someone other than M.L. Carr and his lousy just-tanked-for-this-chance karma would be a better idea this time. (Who was the lottery rep in the Greg Oden/Kevin Durant year? It was Wyc, right?) Sheesh, the first time around they weren't even lucky enough to get Keith Van-Bleepin' Horn. But the history of the post-Big Three Celtics is often retold without enough of an emphasis on Reggie Lewis's death. Len Bias was incredible, but given how many players in that '86 draft washed out because of drugs, who's to say that wouldn't have been his fate had he survived past the night after the draft? Reggie, though ... we already knew what we had and what he could be. It didn't go straight from Larry Bird to Dominique Wilkins, you know? Also: Ainge would have totally taken Durant.

Gun to your head, which game 7 are you taking back; Lakers in 2010 or Miami last year? Banner 18 or the chance to say you beat the team nobody said you could beat and that pill LeBron doesnt have a ring. I think I'm taking Miami. Thoughts?
-- Jake

Lakers. No doubt. None. If Perk had been healthy ... if Doc had given Nate Robinson a few extra minutes ... If Artest's cheap-shot on Ray Allen earlier in the series hadn't mess up his quad ... If Sheed didn't run out of gas ... If Artest's heave doesn't drop ...If KG didn't get out-rebounded by 15 by Pau Gasol, and yes, I feel horrible for bringing it up ... those are the ifs you've got to live with. LeBron? I have the utmost respect for the way he plays the game. Game 6 was the pivotal performance of his career, and in retrospect, it's starting to feel inevitable. Plus, that Celtics team overachieved.

RANDOM LaSCHELLE TARVER INTERLUDE

END OF RANDOM LaSCHELLE TARVER INTERLUDE

Are you still convinced the Sox are going to trade Andrew Bailey? I never understood your logic. He was hurt most of last year, and had 7.04 ERA. Talk about selling low.
-- Todd

Not so much, in part because there will probably be attrition, and also because I haven't heard a peep about him wanting to close elsewhere. (Doesn't hurt that Bruce Rondon is hitting 100 miles per hour in Tigers camp, either.) But it still wouldn't completely surprise me -- there were rumors he was headed to Toronto as compensation for John Farrell before it ended up being Mike Aviles.

The Aaron Hernandez deal seemed smart at the time. It was the exact thing they didn't do with other guys (Vince Wilfork, Logan Mankins) that eventually got them into trouble. Doing Rob Gronkowski deal early certainly seemed smart too.

But did they swing too much to the other guardrail with Hernandez? Especially after they already locked up Gronkowski? Should they have waited for it to play out with Hernandez?

If they didn't do Hernandez deal early, he would be going into the last year of his rookie deal this year, at chump change.

What they gave him is more total dollars than it would take to keep Welker at this point, and the $16 million guaranteed dollars Hernandez got is probably in spitting distance of the guaranteed dollars Welker would want at this point. Same for the $8 million a year Hernandez is getting.

Anyway if you had to have one guy next year, Welker or Hernandez who would it be? in my opinion, hands down, Welker.
-- Larry

Interesting take. Hernandez is so talented and versatile, but he's lost some luster because of his struggles to stay on the field and his inconsistency in big games. (Is that fair? I think that's fair.) But given the choice right now, I take Hernandez without a second thought. He's just 23, and his best days should be ahead. No matter where Welker signs or the amount he signs for, at 32, there's no denying he'll be getting paid for past performance rather than what he is likely to be. Welker should have a couple more highly productive seasons ahead. I hope the Pats keep him. But forced to make a choice between one or the other, there's not really a choice at all.

Ever wonder what your demographic is for the chat? Might be interesting to put that up as a question (ie, are you 18-34, 34-50, etc.) Might be risky for you though. :)
-- DMV

Tend to think my demo is roughly my age group or younger, extraordinarily handsome, and generally much smarter than me. I suspect there's pretty decent demographic appeal there than, say, what you'd find in the comments section of a Bleacher Report slideshow.

I can't be the only one who thinks that Big Papi plays in less than 81 games this year.
-- Jackie

Beginning to think the same way, Jackie. He's 37, admitted recently that there was a partial tear in the Achilles' has played one game since last July 16, and doesn't exactly look like he was addicted to cardio (for understandable reasons) this offseason. He was great when healthy last year, but it's hard to fathom right now that he has 150 games or so ahead of him this year.

Alfonso Soriano is available from Cubs with significant salary relief. His OPS '10-12 .816/.754/.815. Jonny Gomes in the same span: .749/.704/.853. Worth a shot?
-- Thom H.

Meh. He did hit 32 homers last year, but he's redundant with Gomes. Maybe if he hit lefthanded. Actually wonder if he ends up with the Yankees since Curtis Granderson is out for a couple of months. Brian Cashman has denied it, which sometimes foreshadows it actually happening. By the way, I refuse to believe Soriano is 37. I still think of him as the young fella in the Yankees lineup who couldn't hit Pedro's breaking ball even if he had one of those giant red plastic bats.

How do you see Jeff Demps fitting into the Patriots offense next year?
-- Eric M.

Honestly, no clue. He obviously has electric speed and should be what they desperately need in the kicking game, but he's coming off a redshirt season and needed to put on some weight after making the transition from Olympic sprinter. Seems like overall expectations are higher than they should be. He was productive at Florida, but let's not anoint him the second coming of Percy Harvin until he, you know, actually plays some football. What did he have, three catches last preseason?

Every time I see a writer take a shot at Bobby Valentine, I'm reminded of a quote from "Married with Children"--"If you give a gun to a chimp, and the chimp shoots someone, don't blame the chimp." Thanks for 2012, Larry Lucchino!
-- Studio 00

Obviously. What you should do is name the chimp athletic director. Standard procedure.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Some scattered NFL thoughts while while wonder if "Steve Tasker" is Buster Olney's alter ego during football season ...

It's certainly understandable if the last couple of weeks have given Patriots fans a case of Anquan Boldin envy.

The Ravens' fearless, dependable receiver came through time and again in the Super Bowl, with six catches for 104 yards and the game's first touchdown. Two weeks ago, of course, he scored a pair of second half touchdowns as the Ravens ended the Patriots season in the AFC Championship game.

The Patriots could use someone exactly like him, and he's sure to be on the radar again in New England should he somehow end up a salary-cap casualty this offseason.

I say "again,'' because it's worth remembering that the Patriots were in on him three years ago, when his dissatisfaction with this contract led the Cardinals to deal him to the Ravens along with a fifth-round pick for third- and fourth-rounders in the 2010 draft.

For whatever reason, the Patriots didn't outbid the Ravens for Boldin -- perhaps it's because they didn't have a fourth-round pick, having dealt it to Oakland for Derrick Burgess, or perhaps they didn't want to meet Boldin's contract demands, which led to him immediately signing a four-year, $28-million deal with the Ravens, with $10 million guaranteed.

Instead, the day Boldin went to Baltimore (and Julius Peppers, another player they were reportedly pursuing, agreed to a contract worth potentially $91.5 million with the Bears), the Patriots took care of some in-house business, re-signing Vince Wilfork, Stephen Neal, and Tully Banta-Cain.

If they had a do-over on that day, you have to figure they'd pay the price for Boldin. I hope they get a chance to do so this offseason.

* * *

I know there was a time when I thought Phil Simms was an incisive analyst, but damned if I can remember it today.

It would not surprise me in the least if he's still sitting in the broadcast booth at the Superdome, debating with himself as to whether there should have been a flag on the final pass to Michael Crabtree while constantly contradicting himself and never coming to a real conclusion.

When did he become so reluctant to actually have an opinion? Was it before or after the snowball to the face? And how does Jim Nantz, who seemed annoyed at times at Simms's waffling, resist the temptation to say, "C'mon, friend, give me some analysis here."

Even before the blackout threw the entire production out of whack and exposed CBS's lack of preparation for such a circumstance, I found myself wishing for Cris Collinsworth, Al Michaels, and the NBC "Sunday Night Football" crew.

And don't even get me started on Shannon Sharpe, who carried himself like he was one Dennis Pitta injury away from a comeback.

* * *

I'm not sure this makes sense, but that's never stopped me before, so here it is: I'd be giddy if Ed Reed ends up with the Patriots, but I also don't think they should pursue him, presuming he gets paid based on his stature and past accomplishment rather than what he will be the next couple of years.

He still has tremendous instincts and intelligence, but he'll be 35 next year, seems to limp off the field at least once every game, and plays free safety when the Patriots' true need is a bruising strong safety.

Taking sentiment out of it, the timing just isn't right, and we'll just have go on lamenting what might have been had Bill Belichick chosen him instead of Daniel Graham in the first round of the 2002 draft.

* * *

John Harbaugh has always struck me as incredibly gracious in victory or defeat, but deep down he has to be as insanely competitive as his comically intense brother, doesn't he? I suspect he's just learned to hide it better and that both were equally guilty of flipping over the "Chutes and Ladders" board when they'd lose as kids.

* * *

Can Randy Moss win a jump ball anymore? I thought Colin Kaepernick should have taken at least one shot with him in the end zone, and Vernon Davis seems underutilized in the red zone as well. Part of his evolution will included breaking that odd fixation on Michael Crabtree, who is a good receiver, but not one worth habitually depending upon.

* * *

And I'll never get why the Niners didn't run Frank Gore right up the middle at least once on their final possession. Haloti Ngata was injured, and Ray Lewis was about as useful as a blood-stained suit. The Niners didn't play to their strengths on that fateful goal-line stand, nor did they play to the Ravens' weaknesses.

* * *

The more I see of Niners safety Dashon Goldson, the more I'm reminded of Patriots-era Lawyer Milloy. The pile moves backward when he comes rocketing on the TV screen to finish off a hit, but as a pass defender, well, he's a heck of a run-stopper.

* * *

Joe Flacco is a tremendous quarterback, and while the 11-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio this postseason confirms it, it's been the case for awhile. I'm convinced his slack-faced lack of charisma has actually delayed most fans from recognizing how good he really is, with one of the best arms in the league, the mobility to escape the pocket and throw strikes on the run, and the good sense to look Boldin's way when a first down absolutely must be secured.

* * *

As for today's Completely Random Football Card:

He's no Boldin, but he's probably the closest thing the Patriots have had, with touchdowns in seven consecutive playoff games from 2003-05. Givens and David Patten are two of the most underrated players of the Patriots' championship era.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Welcome to the 19th installment of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-but-lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots' weekly matchup ... that unfortunately has nothing to do with the Patriots this week. Yeah, like that little detail of their season's abrupt ending and the residual bitterness will stop the schtick. The Ravens, who unceremoniously halted the Patriots season two weeks ago with a 28-13 win in the AFC Championship game, are 3.5 point underdogs to Colin Kaepernick and the NFC Champion 49ers in what is a fascinating Super Bowl matchup. This game should have a little bit of everything, so let's get to it.

THREE PLAYERS THAT I'LL BE WATCHING NOT NAMED TOM BRADY SINCE, YOU KNOW, HE'S NOT PLAYING, WHICH STINKS:
1. Joe Flacco: I suppose it's a backhanded compliment to say he's easily the best quarterback ever to start a Super Bowl for the Ravens, so let's just come out and admit it without a qualifier: He's really good. He's not the most charismatic leader, and he doesn't hit a particularly high percentage of his passes, but he throws a beautiful deep ball, habitually plays well in big games (eight TDs, no INTs this postseason), and really does not make many mistakes anymore. He needs to be at his best for the Ravens to win Sunday, and he's risen to every challenge so far.

2. Dashon Goldson: Man, why didn't the Patriots offer him more money? The hard-hitting Niners safety is exactly what they need in their secondary.

3. Frank Gore: Much if not most of the buzz when it comes to the Niners offense relates to dynamic second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick, and that's totally understandable. With a win Sunday, he'll have authored the most compelling tale of rapid ascent from relative obscurity to quarterbacking a Super Bowl champion since Tom Brady in 2001. But indications are that the Ravens will first and foremost focus on stopping Kaepernick from breaking loose in the running game, which means the unsung veteran Gore will get plenty of touches. Eight seasons and a couple of knee surgeries into his career, Gore is still a brute of a runner, and the educated hunch here is that he's the player who does the most to carry the Niners to their sixth Super Bowl victory Sunday.

NINE THINGS I HOPE HAPPEN TO RETIRING LINEBACKER/POSSIBLY INSANE CAMERA-HOGGING POSEUR RAY LEWIS ON SUNDAY.

1. Gets hit by Bernard Pollard so viciously he briefly wonders if he's wearing a Patriots uniform.

2. Gets pancaked blocked by Randy Moss.

3. Suffers an epiphany that his teammates regard Ed Reed as their true leader and cries for real for once.

4. Is mauled by a rogue pack of vengeful squirrels angry that he's destroyed their reputations as dancers.

5. Arrives at the stadium to find the white suit hanging in his locker.

6. Gets gored by Gore for the winning Niners touchdown. (Al or Frank. Either will suffice.)

7. Is told he's not allowed to join in any (rein)deer games (like football).

8. Tears a hamstring, two biceps and a groin during his pregame dance and can't go.

9. Spontaneous combustion, that real trick of the devil.

TWO BRILLIANT NINERS QUARTERBACKS, TWO BRILLIANT POSTSEASON DRIVES, TWO NOT-SO-BRILLIANT QUESTIONS

1. Seriously, which was the better throw, the one Joe Montana threads to John Taylor between two closing defenders, or the one Steve Young improbably if not practically impossibly sticks in there to Terrell Owens?

2. After listening to both these clips, with the great Dick Enberg and Merlin Olsen on the former and Pat Summerall and John Madden equally brilliant on the latter (I love Summerall's understated calls), does it become even more evident that Jim Nantz and Phil Simms are nothing better than vanilla as far as top broadcast teams go?

RANDY MOSS IS THE TIM RAINES TO JERRY RICE'S RICKEY HENDERSON
As we were reminded again this week with his casual proclamation that he's the greatest receiver football has ever known, the NFL is a little bit more fun when Randy Moss is a part of it, and not just because there's always the chance his celebrations will cause a mortified Joe Buck to collapse on his fainting couch. Moss's unapologetic confidence -- call it arrogance if you wish -- is such that he probably thought he was the best player in the league last season, when he wasn't even in the league. There's no doubt in my mind that actually does believe he's better than Rice, and it doesn't matter one iota to him that no one agrees. Moss may be the most talented receiver ever, and the best deep threat, and maybe even the flashiest, but even his greatest feat -- catching a record 23 touchdown passes for the '07 Patriots -- is arguably less impressive than Rice catching 22 in 12 games during the strike-abbreviated '87 season. There's no contest between them as players, because there's no contest between Rice and anyone. But Moss is awesome in his own way, and I hope he scores the winning touchdown on Sunday.

COMPLETELY RANDOM FOOTBALL CARD/PREDICTION
Man, must be tough for Jim Harbaugh to coach against the team that he guided to a 5-7 record in 12 starts in 1998. The memories he must have of lighting up the sky with deep passes to Floyd Turner and Michael Jackson. Oh, right, and there's the brother thing, too. Honest question: Who would you rather have as a your coach going forward -- Jim Harbaugh, John Harbaugh, or Bill Belichick? I imagine most of us around here go with Belichick without a second thought, and I'm with those who do. But these Harbaugh fellas are damn are good. Jim seems like an uptight control freak, but he's a genuine quarterback whisperer, and he does delegate, particularly to offensive coordinator Greg Roman. John's a little more outwardly laid-back, but there's a respectful give-and-take with his players, and there is clearly real substance there to get that veteran team to consistently play for him. He's the easier one to root for. But that doesn't apply to his team. The Niners are the better team, too, but not by much. Jim will trump big brother in what very well may be the first of a couple Niners Super Bowl victories over the few seasons. Niners 35, Ravens 31

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

New England sports fans have been so incredibly blessed during the last decade-plus, with the four major sports franchises (sorry, Revo) tallying seven championships since 2001. But we're also reminded of that old Tom Brady go-to line when he's asked which championship is his favorite: "The next one.''

I chatted with Kevin Paul Dupont on the topic of which Boston team will deliver that next one on "Globe 10.0" the other day. But two minutes of jovial bickering apparently didn't do the topic justice since the idea has been ricocheting around in my skull ever since, so here's a couple hundred bonus words on the topic ...

RED SOX
Championship contention? This franchise? I don't know. Do you know? I don't know.

I've gone on record time and again this winter as approving of Ben Cherington's long-range approach toward restoring this franchise's credibility on and off the field. Signing proven, respected veterans to short-term deals as the bridge to a core of prospects the organization truly believes in, all the while holding the reasonable expectation that previously established high-caliber players will return to health and/or form, is a very prudent way to go.

The 2013 Red Sox are going to be better than conventional wisdom suggests, in part because it's actually overlooked how dismal their roster was from August 1 on last season, when they lost 42 of their final 58 games. They're going to be likable and capable, and it feels like they have been neither for a long time, so at least we have that.

But does that translate to true contention? Probably not, unless a deep bullpen masks all question marks in the rotation, everyone in the lineup has a healthy, productive year, a premier player who fits their needs becomes available at midseason, and either Jackie Bradley or Xander Bogaerts emerges ahead of schedule. That's probably too much to ask, but at least the Red Sox will be worth your time again.

Next season of serious contention: I'm telling you, they'll be in the wild card mix this year, but that doesn't count, does it? Let's go with 2015, though I don't think even Cherington's crystal ball can provide an accurate forecast at this point.

CELTICS
If we couldn't admit it before Rajon Rondo's injury, we can now: The only way the Celtics were going to have a shot at reaching the NBA Finals is if Dwyane Wade went on a league-wide rampage of cheap shots unprecedented since the collective 1987 Pistons, with his misguided hackery, undercutting, and elbow-stomping somehow claiming teammate LeBron James along the way. So yes, we're saying there was a chance.

I'll miss watching Rondo doing stuff like this ...

... and this ...

... and I have no idea where Danny Ainge goes from here, though Zach Lowe's suggestion that the Celtics and Warriors might have a match with a Paul Pierce for Harrison Barnes/Richard Jefferson swap at least elicited a "hmmmm, interesting."

Next season of serious contention: Probably about the time Tim Duncan's son is eligible for the draft. He's five.

PATRIOTS
Rodney Harrison, whom Bill Belichick really should have cloned for future use during his peak years, is on The Dan Patrick Show as I'm writing this, and he just admitted to something that surprised me, though maybe it shouldn't. After some prodding by Patrick and a couple of verbal detours about the challenges of Super Bowl week, Harrison admitted that he thinks about the Patriots' Super Bowl loss in 2007 far more often than he considers the victories in 2003 and '04.

I suppose it's not news that he's tormented by the David Tyree catch, but it was a jarring reminder that the Patriots have had an almost unfathomable string of "what-ifs" since that last championship eight years ago. What if Harrison can pry that ball loose? What if Rob Gronkowski isn't injured last season and again this year? What if Deion Branch was still here in '06? What if ... well, that's enough. You don't require the reminders.

It's been a truly extraordinary dozen years for the Patriots -- they don't get enough credit for essentially turning over their entire roster save for the quarterback without as much as a hiccup -- and that should never be taken for granted. I just hope we never get to the point around here of remembering the disappointments ahead of the many victories.

Next season of serious contention: The pursuit of the elusive fourth ring -- that coveted "next one'' -- for Tom Brady and Bill Belichick begins anew in September.

BRUINS
Now, I'm not disregarding all of the people who lost income when the NHL owners and players were engaged in their petty little lockout showdown. But purely from a hockey sense, is it possible that all of the labor melodrama actually benefited the Bruins in a meaningful way?

A league-high 12 of their players went overseas, giving them somewhat of a conditioning advantage. The core of their championship team from two years ago is still intact, so perhaps training camp isn't as essential to them as it is to teams with considerable roster turnover. They have tremendous depth and should be able to navigate the condensed schedule with relative ease. Nathan Horton got extra time to make sure the clouds had gone away.

And how about that fortunate timing, essentially beginning their season as the Patriots were fading out? I think that went a long way toward limiting the potential lockout backlash, almost as if Boston fans realized, "Wait, how fortunate are we to be going from one championship contender right into the season of another?" OK, maybe it didn't quite work that way. You guys just can't resist hockey.

Next season of serious contention: We're five games into it. Thank goodness they came back.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

FOXBOROUGH -- The image has become all too familiar, a solemn reminder worth a thousand expletives to Patriots fans. The shot of Tom Brady, eyes to the ground, shoulders slumped, inanimate crowd behind him, is no longer necessary as a reminder of the franchise's own unique purgatory.

We've seen the image before, last February against the conquering Giants in Indianapolis, and the winter before at the end of a Jets lockdown on the Gillette Stadium that becomes more unfathomable in retrospect with each passing season, and the season before against the same brash and fierce opponent that ended their season Sunday night. "Bummed Brady" has become the opposite of Red Auerbach's victory cigar in recent seasons, the confirmation that another season has ended short of the lofty, not-quite-attainable goal, that the confetti will fall on someone else.

Oh, the Patriots' prolonged run of excellence as a genuine championship contender virtually every season since Bill Belichick and Tom Brady joined forces is extraordinary and perhaps unprecedented, particularly in the salary-cap era. That must be acknowledged, even in the gray aftermath of the Ravens' 28-13 victory in the AFC Championship game at Gillette Stadium Sunday. The were well-positioned to win a Super Bowl this year, and they will be next barring catastrophe or accelerated aging by the still-exceptional quarterback. But that is about as much solace as can be found this morning. The Patriots have now gone eight seasons without being able secure a fourth Lombardi Trophy. This season of such promise ends with a lot of wins and another what-might-have been ending. They're so damn good, and not good enough.

There are probably statistics to counter the emotion, but it sure feels like a long time since Brady has commanded the Patriots to a playoff victory with his ability and smarts and sheer will, and it's hard not to notice that he's 7-7 in his last 14 playoff games after beginning his career an almost unfathomable 10-0. He surpassed Brett Favre as the all-time postseason passing yardage leader Sunday, a hollow record given the circumstances in which it was attained and one we suspect Brady could not value any less at the moment. The legacy he covets is as football's preeminent winner, and while it seems foolish to punish him for helming teams that lose in conference title games (twice) or in the final two minutes of a Super Bowl (twice), particularly since his closest peer of his era, Peyton Manning, has eight postseason one-and-dones on his résumé, But the reality is that the last eight seasons for the Patriots have been a run of unfulfilling brilliance.

Brady has not won a Super Bowl since 2004, when Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel and Tedy Bruschi and Rodney Harrison and Richard Seymour and so many more long-since-departed stalwarts were still here. Yet if Brady's not the same quarterback he was then, he's off by just a minor calibration, with the wisdom of experience presumably making up for any minor erosion in skill. Yet that wisdom was shockingly absent during one pivotal moment Sunday. In the final moments of the first half, deep in Ravens territory, Brady inexplicably allowed the clock to tick to four seconds before calling a timeout after a scramble, thus forcing the Patriots to settle for a 25-yard field goal by Stephen Gostkowski. They went into the half with a 13-7 lead, but they left potential points on the field that they would never recoup.

That frustrating end to the half wasn't the only ominous twist. In the first quarter. Aqib Talib, the cornerback whose in-season acquisition from the Buccaneers stabilized the defensive backfield and allowed others to slide into more fitting roles, departed after the third defensive series, clutching his right hamstring. The injury came after Talib had again demonstrated his value, busting up a third-down pass to Anquan Boldin. He was replaced by Kyle Arrington. During the postgame, Flacco said the Ravens made a conscious effort to try to beat the Patriots with the pass. Such a strategy may have been less of a consideration -- and may have been less successful -- had Talib's season not ended three quarters before his teammates'.

Joe Flacco, the Ravens' strong-armed, much-improved quarterback, threw all three of his touchdown passes in the second half, and Brady, stunningly, could not come close to keeping pace, an outcome that was the opposite of the conventional expectation. The Patriots were shut out in the second half, the first time an opponent slapped a zero on them after the break since a 2009 game against the Jets. So much for the thought perpetrated here throughout the season that this was the most diversely talented collection of players Brady has had at his disposal since he's been here. Brandon Lloyd is decent but hardly dependable. Aaron Hernandez, an obvious choice to pick up the slack for injured Rob Gronkowski (can we agree we actually underestimated his absence and vow to never do so again?), was terrific in the first half but had just two receptions on five targets in the second, finishing with nine catches overall. There's still too much inconsistency in his game.

Then there is Wes Welker. He's been an exemplary Patriot, so easy to root for, so willing to do whatever it takes to make a play. He's made so many of those plays, with 672 regular-season receptions during his six seasons in New England, that it doesn't seem fair that a second straight season ends with discussion surrounding a play he should have made but couldn't. But it does. On the Patriots' first possession of the second half, they drove to the Baltimore 34, with a 24-yard strike to Welker plus a 15-yard unnecessary roughness penalty on Pollard seeming to tilt the momentum the Patriots' way. But on third-and-8, a wide-open Welker dropped Brady's on-target throw near the 20, forcing a punt. A chance to take a 20-7 lead was wasted, and while the mistake wasn't as instantly devastating as Welker's late drop that might have clinched Super Bowl XLVI, it was an easier catch and thus more egregious. Welker has not been part of a Super Bowl champion in New England, and with potential free agency looming, the chance may have slipped through his hands for good. Perhaps this is sentiment speaking, but here's hoping another comes his way. He can still be essential. If anything, he's depended upon too much.

The Patriots had designs of running the ball in the hurry-up offense until the aging Ravens gasped for breath and lost their grip, but Baltimore's will proved too strong, and the Patriots reverted to being a one-dimensional offense. They gained 108 yards on 28 carries, with just 33 yards coming in the second half. Stevan Ridley, who ran for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns in his breakthrough second NFL season, was literally knocked out early in the fourth quarter on a vicious hit by Ravens safety Bernard Pollard, who apparently doesn't consider a game official until he has injured a Patriot. The injury was accompanied by insult -- Ridley, his lights turned off, plopped the ball to the turf. Baltimore recovered at the Patriots 47, and four plays later, Joe Flacco found Anquan Boldin for his second touchdown of the quarter. It was 28-13, and the lights were off for the rest of the Patriots as well.

I don't know about you, but I'll insist deep into the offseason that this year's roster, with a remodeled defense, was better than the one that got to the Super Bowl last year. That they're not going back only serves as evidence of how difficult it is, and so once again you, me, and perhaps even the guy in the photograph are left to ponder those days when they made winning championships seem so much easier.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Welcome to the 18th installment of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-but-lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots' weekly matchup that runs right here every Friday at noonish. This week, the Patriots, one win from their sixth Super Bowl appearance since 2001, host the tough Baltimore Ravens in a much-anticipated rematch of last year's AFC Championship.

RAY LEWIS: "So gonna mention me or what, son? You wrote all those words and didn't mention ol' No. 52. [Twitches.] I'm retiring, you know. Seventeen years, thousands of tackles, endless inspiration. Seventeen years. Seventeen. Years. Amen. I've believe I've told you time and again, through my football sermons and selfless leadership and interpretive dance, you'd better respect me. I've left my heart and soul on that field. [Twitches.] Seventeen years. And yet, all those words, no mention. No respect. Hmm. I see. If you don't pay proper respect to the most fearsome linebacker ever to dance like a squirrel, I'll catch up to you just like I do every running back after 12 yards of down field pursuit. Kinda wish I was wearing my home whites -- a white suit, if you get my drift. Ha ha, just kidding, son. Ray forgives. We're good. [Twitches.] Now, if you'll excuse me, I must ...

... DANCE! LOOK AT ME LOOK AT ME LOOK AT ME IS THE RED LIGHT ON THE RED LIGHT HAD BETTER BE ON ... YOU'RE JUST A SQUIRREL TRYING TO GET A NUT SO SCRAM .... LOOK AT ME HERE WE GO SOD-TOSS SOD-TOSS FOX TROT LEFT FOX TROT RIGHT SPASM SPASM HOKEY POKEY ALL AROUND ... I SEE YOU IN THE BACK THERE FLACCO WITH YOUR ANTHONY DAVIS BROW ... DON'T ROLL YOUR EYES AT ME ED REED I SAW THAT ... ANDDD ROAR, FLEX, FLEX, CONTORT, CONTORT, ROAR, BOOM. NAILED IT. ... BERMAN IS GONNA LOVE IT WHEN I DO THIS ON SET NEXT SEASON.

(Too much? Probably. But he did, as Drew Magary pointed out on Deadspin, essentially take credit for Joe Flacco's miracle completion to Jacoby Jones in the win over the Broncos. Which is somewhere between absurd and insane, and yet totally predictable. Enough Ray Lewis. Let's get to the details.)

THREE PLAYERS I'LL BE WATCHING OTHER THAN TOM BRADY
Joe Flacco: He's 7-4 in the postseason, has won five playoff games on the road in his career, threw just 10 interceptions this year, dropped 382 pass yards on the Patriots in Week 3 and 973 total in their last three meetings, and unlike Matt Schaub, doesn't habitually throw the ball away on third down after dodging the first wave of pass rushers. He may not be elite, but he's getting there, and he's earned his respect.

Devin McCourty: I was surprised that he got a vote for the AP All-Pro team as a safety this year, since he just shifted over to the position after Aqib Talib's arrival. I'll be surprised if he doesn't get many more in the future. He's found his ideal role at safety, and I fully expect him to make at least one big play ranging to cut off a deep ball thrown down the right sideline by Flacco on Sunday.

Ed Reed: Lewis is getting all of the attention, and the tributes to his various accomplishments on the field are just, but it should also be acknowledged that Reed, one of the premier defensive playmakers in league history, could be playing his final game with the Ravens Sunday. He's 34 and has a little bit of gray in his hair now, and maybe he doesn't have much left to add to that highlight reel. But he deserves his share of tributes, too, and you can bet Bill Belichick has been giving him one during team meetings and film sessions this week. I hope it's Chung out, Reed in next year.

COMPLETELY RANDOM FOOTBALL CARD
After Reed and perhaps Ray Rice, there may not be a player on the Ravens I respect more than Boldin, the talented, trustworthy, and extremely tough 32-year-old receiver. Boldin finished with 921 receiving yards during the regular season, but he has been at his best in the postseason, with 11 receptions for 216 yards and a touchdown in wins over Indianapolis and Denver. Presuming Talib's assignment is to spend Sunday evening running with deep-threat Torrey Smith, Boldin will likely be a difficult matchup over the middle of the field -- and it wouldn't come as a total shock if the former short-timer at quarterback during his Florida State days is an active participant in a trick play or two.

THE IHEDIGBOWL
I think we'd all agree that it's coincidence more than a tribute to his abilities that James Ihedigbo is playing in his third consecutive AFC Championship game, particularly since there's the telling fact that he's doing it with his third team (Jets, Patriots, Ravens, and yes, the Jets, that butt-fumble of a franchise, really were in the AFC Championship game just two years ago.) He's a good teammate and a capable special-teams player and sub-replacement level at safety, which is sort of what I'm getting at here. Ihedigbo started at safety for the Patriots in last year's AFC Championship game. So did Patrick Chung. Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington were the cornerbacks. Sterling Moore saw significant time, and of course, made a game-saving pass breakup. In effect, they had two underachievers surrounded by journeymen. This year, it's so much better. With the arrival of Talib, the emergence of Alfonzo Dennard, and the shift of McCourty to safety, the Patriots defensive backfield is far superior to the one that was a couple of minutes from winning a Super Bowl a season ago.

PREDICTION, OR IS DEAN PEES A DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR OR A DECLARATIVE SENTENCE?
There's some sentiment that Pees, who lost his job as the Patriots' defensive coordinator after the embarrassing no-show against the Ravens in the 2009 playoffs, might gain some measure of revenge against his former team, what with his presumed relative knowledge of their offensive preferences and tendencies. Uh-huh, good luck with that revenge fantasy. Maybe the habitual spouters of conventional wisdom haven't noticed, but this isn't 2000 and the Ravens aren't the defensive terrors they used to be. Reed, Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, and Lewis are aging and injured. Cornerback Lardarius Webb, arguably their best defensive player earlier in the year, is out for the season. They are coming off a double-overtime game in the high altitude of Denver, have been on the field for 186 plays over the past two weeks, and should be in no condition to deal with the Patriots' accelerated hurry-up offense in which Tom Brady should have no trouble identifying mismatches, especially if Lewis can't get off the field. The Ravens, with a deep, versatile offense, will score their share of points, but they won't be able to keep pace with the Patriots long enough to create much suspense. It's back to New Orleans, where the first championship of this extraordinary run began. Patriots 38, Ravens 27.

(Previous game's prediction: Patriots 38, Texans 27. Final score: Patriots 41, Texans 28. Season record: 13-4. And for what it's worth, I'd have picked against them for the first time this season had they gone to Denver.)

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

There's no denying that Rob Gronkowski's absence adds degrees of difficulty to the Patriots' chances of overcoming the Baltimore Ravens Sunday evening at Gillette Stadium and advancing to their sixth Super Bowl since 2001.

Save for perhaps Randy Moss's vintage I'll-show-you performance in 2007, Gronk is the most unstoppable pass-catching force the Patriots have ever had. I'll take him at the peak of his powers over a motivated Moss without much of a second thought. And I liked and still like Moss.

So please don't count me among those underestimating Gronk's loss, even if I happen to believe in the talent remaining on the Patriots offense. There's no need to send out the bat signal for Kellen Winslow Jr. or Visanthe Shiancoe, not that they'd help much anyway. Gronk's void will be filled as much as possible by Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd and the deep cache of weapons already in Brady's arsenal.

The small blessing, if we can call it that, is that this scenario is not a new one. They played five games without him after he first broke his arm November 18 against the Colts. They averaged 34.2 points per game while he was out. They will not find themselves in confused disarray, which was sometimes the case in the last Super Bowl when his injured ankle relegated him to a limping decoy.

The Patriots can beat the Ravens without him, and I believe with their much-improved secondary and their diverse, rapid-fire offense -- among various other attributes -- they will be departing for New Orleans soon.

Me, I'm more frustrated we don't get to watch him anymore, at least for this season. Gronk, with his rampaging runs after the catch and comically ferocious celebratory spikes, is as fun to watch as any Patriot I can recall, and that includes Moss, an engaged Terry Glenn, young Curtis Martin, and even in a sense Tom Brady, whose efficient brilliance is so familiar and expected that it rarely dazzles (though that 33-yard touchdown pass to Shane Vereen Sunday was a recent, pure "Wow, we're lucky to watch this" moment).

His talent is of course otherworldly -- three seasons into his career, he's already among the most productive tight ends ever, with as many career touchdown catches (38) as John Mackey and one fewer than Mark Bavaro. Considering he'd be in the league for his blocking skills even if he had the hands of, say, Lovett Purnell, it does not require a leap of hyperbole to suggest he could be the greatest ever to play the position.

I'm not going to question why he was on the field Sunday -- the break is apparently in a slightly different spot that will always be at risk because of the nature of the first repair, and while his obvious protection of the injured wing suggested he didn't fully trust that it was healed, no one put his helmet on for him. Accepting the physical danger and brutal toll of the game, as Jason Taylor recently elaborated upon in gruesome detail, is turf tread by everyone who has ever played the game. Gronk knew what he was doing.

The frustration, for him and for us, is that he doesn't get to do what he does best Sunday, or two weeks beyond. It's not difficult to imagine a healthy Gronk exploiting a mismatch for the ages, beating the Ravens' Ray Lewis and turning the squirrel into proverbial road kill, or perhaps somehow avenging the season-altering ankle injury Baltimore safety Bernard Pollard caused last year.

But imagining it is all Patriots fans can do. Gronk is out, that massive and suddenly vulnerable forearm back in a cast, and while the team survives and possibly thrives without him, it's not the same.

We've seen the last of Gronk this year, but optimism prevails about this team and the player. This injury is not yet enough to make me wonder if we've already seen the best of him.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Ten free minutes for me, 10 free throwaway lines for you ...

1. The chance to watch the Patriots end Ray Lewis's praise-the-Lord-but-keep-the-camera-on-me charade is almost too delicious to contemplate. In defeat on the road, would he dare to do one final dance, perhaps called "Squirrel to Hibernation and then ESPN,'' in which he orders the Ravens' p.r. guy to put extra turf and random acorns on the field for him to toss around? He belongs in the NFL and the Self-Promotion Hall of Fames, joining Deion Sanders among others in both. But he's much better at the latter than the former, and has been for years.

2. If the Patriots go with their accelerated offense -- and if they don't immediately against an aging, injured Ravens defense that is coming off a double-overtime game in Denver's high altitude, you have to suspect John Fox has somehow taken over the play calling for Josh McDaniels -- Lewis will be completely exposed, particularly if Aaron Hernandez plays with the explosiveness and consistency he did against the Texans. With Rob Gronkowski out for the playoffs, the Patriots need Hernandez to be steadily excellent -- he wasn't in last year's Super Bowl loss -- and he'll get a great opportunity Sunday to prove he's as dependable as he is talented.

3. I'm not sold on Mike Morse as a Plan B if the Mike Napoli deal falls through. He's never played more than 146 games in a season, which he accomplished during his his 31-homer, .910 breakthrough season in 2011, and he's played more than 102 just twice. There's some appeal in watching the 6-foot-5-inch, 245-pound former shortstop take aim at the Monster, but he's no safe bet to be durable, and acquiring him would cost legitimate prospects and/or roster players. Signing Napoli on a one-year deal seems like a better plan, even with the questions about how long his hip will hold up.

4. Wouldn't mind the Red Sox bringing back Casey Kotchman as a lefty option/defensive replacement. While it's probably fair to presume at this point that he's never going to live up to his pre-2005 billing as the sixth-best prospect in baseball, he's excellent with the glove, is one year removed from an .800 OPS season in 563 plate appearances with the Rays, and he won't be 30 until February.

5. I mentioned on Twitter a week or so ago that on the back of Dennis Eckersley's 1992 baseball card -- the one pictured here -- he lists his favorite singer as Richard Marx. Good thing I let it stand on its own and resisted the usual snark or I might have had a story to tell along the lines of this one. (Is it me, or does the writer come across as the real jerk in this piece? I'll be right here waiting for your answer.)

6. Enjoyed my colleague Fluto Shinzawa's item in his notebook Sunday on Chris Bourque's quest for a spot on the Bruins' third line as he tries to establish himself as a member of the team for which his dad starred for so long. Figure it also has to be the first story in the Globe archives in which the phrase "Bourque's defensive shortcomings" appears, wouldn't you say?

7. Ed Reed was the 24th pick in the 2002 NFL Draft. Players chosen ahead of him included David Carr, Joey Harrington, Mike Williams, Wendell Bryant, Donte' Stallworth, William Green, T.J. Duckett, Ashley Lelie, and, by the Patriots, Daniel Graham. I suspect Reed, not Lewis, is the most respected opponent among the Patriots this week, and he's a free agent after this season. Though he's 34 and injuries have taken a toll, here's hoping Sunday's game at Gillette Stadium is a precursor to Reed playing his home games in Foxborough next season.

8. Even with Jared Sullinger's emergence as a legitimate starter on a good team -- his instincts, intelligence, and extraordinary hands, especially rebounding in traffic, have made him a favorite already -- the Celtics are going to require another rebounder if they're going to play on as far as they hope. Danny Ainge will make a trade. I just hope it can be consummated without giving up Courtney Lee, who after an ugly start has really found his niche as a dogged defender who can run on the break with Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley. He fits more than Jason Terry does at this point.

9. Bradley is so tenacious and matrix-quick that he's the rare player whom you look forward to watching play defense. He recently tormented James Harden so relentlessly that late in the game the Houston star probably half-expected Bradley to leap out of his beard to poke the ball away. And his ability to force turnovers and turn them into easy scoring opportunities is essential on a team that goes through weird droughts in its halfcourt sets. So we can say it, right? His value to the Celtics was not exaggerated whatsoever in his absence.

10. As for today's Completely Random Basketball card:

You might recognize him as the stoic assistant coach usually seated a few seats down from Doc Rivers on the Celtics bench, but he preceded Doc as the Hawks' point guard (and feeling the four-letter-word wrath of Hubie Brown) and was briefly his teammate during 1983-84, Doc's first season and Hill's last.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

FOXBOROUGH -- If you had Shane Vereen pegged as the Patriots' secret weapon in this one, well, hey, nice job helping Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels mastermind such an unexpected and successful game-plan. Might I suggest submitting your résumé for the Jets' offensive coordinator opening?

Obligatory facetiousness aside, let's now commence with the platitudes, starting with Vereen, the Patriots' second-year running back out of Cal who submitted the performance of his young career last night in the Patriots' 41-28 victory over the Houston Texans in their AFC Divisional round matchup.

Vereen, whose role was increased by an early thumb injury to versatile Danny Woodhead, scored three touchdowns (two receiving) while becoming the first Patriot since current teammate Deion Branch in the 2004 AFC Championship at Pittsburgh to have a rushing and receiving touchdown in the same postseason game.

The Patriots' occasionally suspenseful victory capped an extraordinary weekend in the NFL, with the Broncos' Peyton Manning faltering in the postseason again, the Niners' Colin Kaepernick running past the beleaguered Packers seemingly at will, and the Falcons surviving the Seahawks.

The Patriots will now host the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship game for the second straight year, and it should be a brawl. A sixth trip to the Super Bowl in the Belichick/Tom Brady is era at stake, not to mention a chance at ending Ray Lewis's brilliant run of Hall-of-Fame-caliber linebacker play and astonishing gift for self-aggrandizement.

"It's going to be a great matchup,'' said Vereen, who was surrounded by a media swarm that spilled past a couple of teammates' lockers. "It's always between us and the Ravens.''

He finished with seven carries for 41 yards and five receptions for 83 yards, and the final numbers don't seem to emphasize how well he played his large role on short notice.

"I don't come into the game knowing how much anyone is going to play,'' he said. "I come into the game ready to go and if my number is called I do my best.''

Vereen's best was plenty good enough, but his was not the only superb performance. Brady became the winningest quarterback in postseason history, surpassing boyhood hero Joe Montana with a 17th career playoff win in which he threw for 344 yards and three touchdowns while expertly avoiding Texans pass-rusher extraordinaire J.J. Watt. Wes Welker had eight catches for 137 yards, and Aaron Hernandez contributed six catches for 85 yards. The trio were outstanding even by their usual high standards.

But Vereen's was the most unexpected superb performance, given that he contributed exactly 400 yards (251 rushing, 149 receiving, or precisely 25 total yards per game) to the Patriots' offense this season. He had flashes of explosiveness and potential in his sophomore season -- an 83-yard touchdown reception in Week 12 against the Jets stands out -- but after fumbling on his only touch against the 49ers in Week 15, he had just eight touches over the final three games.

"Shane had a great game,'' said Brady. "Really just a huge growing-up moment for him, so special. There were a lot of guys that made a lot of plays, and we needed it.''

His resilience deserves acknowledgment. Patriots players, when faced with an injury to a teammate, often cite a next-man-up philosophy, and it's something we'll be hearing even more this week in the wake of the lousy news that Rob Gronkowski will miss the remainder of the postseason after reinjuring his left forearm/wrist last night. The next-man-up approach may seem callous, but it keeps them focused, and Vereen's performance was that weathered cliche come to life. His opportunity arrived, and he seized it.

"We hate to lose Woody,'' said Vereen. "He is such a key part of our offense, but at the same time all of the running backs hold ourselves accountable to step up when somebody does go down.''

Brady acknowledged that it took the Patriots offense a few possessions to find its bearings after losing both Woodhead and Gronkowski.

"We had a whole plan built for [Gronkowski] and Woody,'' said Brady. "We run the first series of the game and all those plans change. I think a little bit of it was 'What are we going to do now? How are we going to adjust?' But we seemed to settle in there midway through the first quarter and put together a pretty good game. Obviously it's a bummer to lose anybody, but someone of Rob's importance or Danny's importance, we need guys to step in and fill the void, whether it's this game or any game after.

Vereen's ability to step up and help the offense find its rhythm became evident in the first quarter -- he contributed two crucial plays on the Patriots' first scoring drive. Houston had jumped to a 3-0 lead before the smoke from the pregame fireworks cleared, settling for Shayne Graham's 27-yard field goal three plays after Danial Manning's 94-yard kickoff return put them on the doorstep. But on the Patriots' third possession, Vereen's 25-yard catch and run, which included a nifty spin move, took the ball from the Houston 40 to the 15 with 2:38 left in the first quarter. One 14-yard catch by Aaron Hernandez later, Vereen ran in from the 1 to put the Patriots up, 7-3, capping a six-play, 65-yard drive.

The Patriots never trailed again, in part because Vereen, who tied a season-high with 12 touches, never relented. On the Patriots' next possession, Vereen accounted for 36 yards on three carries, with back-to-back carries totaling 30 yards coming when the Patriots sped up the pace to keep the Texans from getting extra defensive backs off the field. He also had a 12-yard catch on the drive, which culminated with a 37-yard Stephen Gostkowski field goal to give the Patriots a 10-3 lead with 10:16 left in the second quarter.

Less than seven minutes later, there was Vereen again, putting the finishing touches on a seven-play, 80-yard drive with an 8-yard touchdown reception in which the Texans appeared to forget to account for him. Perhaps they were too fixated on Welker, who had six catches for 120 yards in the first half and must have given Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips at least a fleeting A.J. Green flashback with his 47-yard catch down the left sideline on the play previous to the score, which made it 17-3.

The Texans scored the final 10 points of the first half, including a Foster scoring run with 1:15 remaining and, after a sluggish three-and-out by the Patriots, a 55-yard field goal by Graham, who had missed his two attempts from beyond 50 yards during the regular season.

The Texans' rally -- and the Patriots' apparent passivity on their final first-half possession, which contradicted the the foxhole mentality Belichick uncharacteristically espoused during the week -- might have added an element of extra tension to the proceedings for those expecting a blowout. But it didn't last. The Patriots eased nerves in living rooms throughout New England with a seven-play, 69-yard drive to begin the half, an Aaron Hernandez 40-yard catch-and-run setting up an eight-yard scoring run by Stevan Ridley to give the Patriots a 24-13 lead.

Brandon Lloyd's 5-yard touchdown catch and another Vereen score -- this one a spectacular catch covering 33 yards to put the Patriots up 38-13 -- ended all real suspense, even as the Texans closed to within 10 with 5:11 left.

The Texans weren't tomato cans, as the saying goes. But they were no match for Shane Vereen, and who saw that coming?

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Welcome to the 17th installment of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-but-lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots' weekly matchup that runs right here every Friday at noonish. This week, the second-seeded Patriots host the third-seeded Houston Texans in the AFC Divisional Playoff. The Patriots routed the Texans, 42-14, on Dec. 10, sending them into a semi-tailspin in which they lost three of the final four games and a shot at a bye. An uneventful victory over the Bengals last week set up their shot at vengeance against the Patriots. Let's get to the details.

THREE PLAYERS I'LL BE WATCHING OTHER THAN TOM BRADY
Arian Foster: Though he ran for just 46 yards on 15 carries in the previous meeting, you have to respect the Texans running back's talent at least as much as you do his avatar-making skills. He's the closest thing in style I've ever seen to Eric Dickerson, his graceful, long open-field strides accounting for a chunk of his 1,421 rushing yards this year. (He has 4,264 rushing yards over the past three seasons.) The Patriots -- perhaps with an assist to the Texans' play-calling -- contained him on Dec. 10, and Gary Kubiak probably abandoned him too soon. It's hard to imagine he'll be so easily contained again.

Vince Wilfork: All of the attention J.J. Watt receives is completely justified -- he's relentless and extraordinarily athletic, and he's as an easy a choice for defensive player of the year as I can remember. But it must be noted that he was not the most disruptive defensive lineman in the first meeting between the teams. That designation belongs to Vince Wilfork, who dominated the interior of the Texans offensive line in what might have been his best performance since he did the very same thing to the Ravens in last year's AFC Championship game. He had a sack, a pass defensed, four tackles, and his presence allowed the linebackers behind him to make play after play as Foster was bottled up. Wilfork has had one of his best seasons in what is a borderline Hall of Fame career. The Patriots need another gem from him Sunday.

J.J. Watt: Watt had just four tackles in the last meeting, but he did hit Brady five times, and if the Texans are going to create the turnovers they'll need to beat the Patriots, chances are he'll be in the middle of it. His presence makes it imperative again that Brady can make his reads and get rid of the ball quickly. If the Patriots have faced an opponent this year who deserves more respect than Watt, it's that Buick-pushing quarterback in Denver and no one else.

BECAUSE THIS IS WHAT CAME UP ON A YOUTUBE SEARCH OF PATRIOTS-TEXANS, THAT'S WHY
The Patriots and Texans really don't have a whole lot of mutual history, having played just four times since the latter's inception in 2002. The Texans have beaten them once, 34-27 in 2009 in the game in which the Reliant Stadium turf claimed Wes Welker's knee as a victim. I'm sure as heck not using that as our video clip of the week in this space, and there's not much of a film vault to draw from given the teams' limited history. (That was probably evident the first time they played this season, we went with Houston Oilers highlights.) So for lack of anything better -- the footage from the Patriots' 42-14 win Dec. 10 is still too new, I say -- here's a clip of the NFL Network's America's Game look at the 2004 Super Bowl champion Patriots. I'm not sure why this comes up on a search for "Patriots-Texans,'' but it's tremendous, especially the segment on Steve Belichick, and at this time of the year, it's never a bad idea to get a reminder of what a Super Bowl champion looks like..

THE GRONK FACTOR
Give me a One-Armed Gronk over a Two-Armed Hoomanawanui any day. Of course, a Two-Armed Rob Gronkowski is much preferable, and there is some level of concern as to whether that busted left forearm that cost him five late-season games is fully healed. It was apparent that he was protecting it upon his return in the regular-season finale against the Dolphins, the wing hanging indifferently by his side even as he was running with the football. Hopefully the two weeks of rest have helped him return to full strength. His value to the passing game needs no further explanation -- he had a touchdown against the Dolphins even as he shook the rust off -- and his extraordinary blocking makes the workday easier for Stevan Ridley and the running backs. Here's looking forward to seeing him close to 100 percent come Sunday. Now, if Wade Phillips would just say he's no A.J. Green ...

COMPLETELY RANDOM FOOTBALL CARD
Quick question: Is that Matt Schaub, or Brad Garrett's slightly less giant brother? Discuss. I suppose if we're in the game of attempting to give the Texans quarterback credit, it could be noted that he has one more career postseason victory than current Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan. So he's got that going for him, at least for now. But make no mistake: the pressure is on him this week to finally deliver in a big moment. He's put up big numbers -- in 2009 he threw for 4,770 yards and 29 TDs -- but the defining win of his career came ... well, last week, in that snoozer against the Bengals. A large part of his legacy as a quarterback is on the line this week. Given how underwhelming he's been recently, it's hard to find someone clear of mind who expects him to deliver.

PREDICTION, OR LET'S CUT TO THE CHASE: IS REVENGE ACTUALLY POSSIBLE FOR THE TEXANS?
Well, sure, it's possible. There's some extraordinary talent on this team, from Foster to Watt to Andre Johnson, and any one of them is capable of making a significant impact on the outcome of this game. But is it likely? I don't think so, and for more than a couple of reasons. There's no indication that Wade Phillips will have the good sense to change up what he always does and resist blitzing Brady, who stuck the Texans defense for the three touchdowns when they blitzed in the previous meeting. Whether it's a reflection of their coach, their quarterback, or their team culture, the Texans just don't seem to have the collective mental toughness to come into a place where they lost by 28 points a month ago in what they called the biggest game in their history. As Ted Johnson noted in my media column today, the Texans need a lot to go right -- Foster has to run for 150 or so yards so they can control the clock, Schaub needs to convert consistently on third-and-short, and they need to win the turnover battle by at least two. It's too much for them to ask, and while the Texans will probably keep it closer, they're not leaving with a new "playoff win'' pin for their letter jackets. Meet me in Denver. Patriots 38, Texans 27.

Previous game's prediction: Patriots 27, Dolphins 13. Final score: Patriots 28, Dolphins 0. Season record: 12-4.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

I wouldn't go so far as to suggest it's the best weekend of the sports year -- that designation is reserved for that little basketball tournament in March when the field pares to 16 -- but considering how much collective anticipation NFL fans understandably shared for the just-concluded four-game wild-card round, it's fair to suggest in retrospect that it was a bit of a letdown, no?

The Packers and Ravens cruised to uneventful, apparently inevitable victories past overmatched opponents. The Texans' win over the Bengals wasn't much better, though an on-target deep ball or two from Andy Dalton might have changed that. And while the Redskins-Seahawks matchup lived up to the billing as the weekend's must-see matchup for a while, only Seattle fans and the misguided stragglers who thought Pete Carroll was a decent coach here enjoyed how it played out. The rest of us were left with the lousy feeling of wondering whether Robert Griffin III's knee and Mike Shanahan's soul were in equal tatters.

Any hope for four suspenseful games gave way to scattered random questions. Who graduated first from the Elaine Benes School of Dance, Ray Lewis or Pitbull?

What's in that little shed RGIII retreated to when he was hurt or injured or however his balky knee was classified early in the game?

How could the at least adequate Brian Hoyer spent so much of the season waiting for a roster spot to open up when the likes of Joe Webb, a one-man Spergon Wynn tribute band, were one injury from a starting role?

Of course, this weekend's unfulfilled expectations don't temper the enthusiasm for what's ahead, nor should they. Packers-Niners, Falcons-Seahawks, and Ravens-Broncos are all fascinating showdowns that could play out with countless plot twists and outcomes, and around here we get to shift our football focus back to the rested Patriots, who will host the Texans Sunday, 34 days after figuratively repossessing their lettermen jackets with a 42-14 victory on "Monday Night Football" that proved pivotal in determining the seeding in the AFC.

Personally, I was hoping the Ravens would end up as the Patriots' divisional playoff foe, if only for the opportunity to watch them end the mythical career -- emphasis on myth -- of Ray Lewis, a wonderful player for several years but one of the most unaccountable, preening narcissists in league history. Gillette would have been a fine place to end the shameful hagiography.

But a rematch with the Texans will have to do, and the story lines are interesting if easily conjured. After beginning the season 11-1, Houston lost three of its final four games to punt away a bye, the trip to Foxborough a reminder of one opportunity already muffed. If there's any question about the Patriots being favored by 9.5 points, keep in mind that in the first meeting they were up 21 in the first half and glided from there -- without Rob Gronkowski.

Revenge will be an obvious motivator for the Texans, but let's not confuse them with the 2010 Jets, who avenged a 45-3 late-season loss to the Patriots by ending their season with a 28-21 victory in the divisional round a little more than a month later. Those Jets were tougher and more talented than the punch line they have become. Given the stakes, that loss is worth a small reminder, however, and Bill Belichick acknowledged during a conference call over the weekend that what happened that season has been talked about "many, many times." I recommend sparing yourself from the many, many other reminders on sports radio this week.

If there's a playoff opponent in recent Patriots history of which the Texans are reminiscent, it's probably the 2006 or '07 San Diego Chargers. The '06 team went 14-2, racked up 492 points, lost to the Patriots in the divisional round (see: Troy Brown vs. Marlon McCree), and like these Texans, had Wade Phillips as a defensive coordinator. The '07 team is a better comp even though Phillips had moved on -- they went 11-5, scored 412 points (two fewer than this year's Texans team) and had extraordinary talent that wasn't good enough to overcome the 17-0 Patriots in the AFC Championship game.

They were also ... well, I'm reluctant to call any NFL player or team soft, especially in the hours after a player like RGIII is convinced it's part of the job requirement to play through an injury that robbed him of a large portion of his skill. So let's put it this way. The Texans weren't ready for prime-time before, but I seriously doubt we'll see Arian Foster bundled up in a giant parka on the sidelines, LaDainian Tomlinson-style, while his team forges on without him.

If the Texans are going to give a good accounting in their latest Biggest Game In Franchise History, their superstars must lead them. Defensive player of the year shoo-in J.J. Watt's motor is permanently stuck on overdrive, and Foster, who had just 46 yards against the Patriots, ran for 140 against the Bengals. Cincinnati would be wise to put the ball in his hands 30-plus times and see where he can take them.

The Texans may not be as tough or tested as the Patriots, but their victory over the Bengals showed at least some measure of fortitude. Still, it was the Bengals, who from what I gather haven't won a playoff game since Boobie Clark was their feature back. The Texans have earned a couple of stripes, but can they gain full redemption on the same field where it took a turn for the worse just a month ago? Knowing what we think we know about them -- and what we do know about the Patriots -- let's just say this: letterman jackets can be bought. But banners, they have to be earned.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Around here, we should require no reminder to let all of the scenes play out, to let the entire plot untangle before we offer our review of the film.

The Denver Broncos and Patriots both began the season 3-3, and any serious frustrations and concerns fans here or in the Colorado area code had six weeks into the season -- Can Peyton Manning still throw downfield? Can the Patriots cover anyone? -- should have long since given way to the optimism that comes from victorious Sunday after victorious Sunday, right up until you find your team is a favorite in The Tournament.

We shouldn't have drawn conclusions early in the season, and we probably should not now. But man, the foreshadowing of the final scenes are tough to ignore on this morning after the final Sunday of the regular season, one in which the Broncos and Patriots locked up the respective Nos. 1 and 2 seeds with impressive authority.

Right now, it is impossible to resist envisioning how at the least the early stages of the postseason will play out. So how about we allow the Patriots to avoid any more bumps and bruises, breeze past the ancillary details and warmup acts, and just skip ahead to January 20 at Sports Authority Stadium and the inevitable AFC Championship Game classic-in-waiting with Manning and the Broncos?

I know, I know, we're not supposed to think that way, let alone say it or put it in print. One game at a time and all that. And Patriots players surely have been trained to know better than to even consider looking past the bye week, let alone the Texans, Ravens, or Colts, their potential AFC Divisional Playoff opponents. If Brady has had a thought about another duel with Manning, his generational and historic rival, surely it was a fleeting one.

The Patriots must focus on the task at hand, which is simultaneously getting as healthy as possible over the next two weeks -- can we now acknowledge that the bye is essential for this talented but hobbling team? -- while preparing for that yet-to-be-determined opponent. But for us, the couch-bound commentariat, looking ahead is an enjoyable temptation, especially after pretty much everything save for a Broncos loss to the Chiefs -- a wish ultimately too unrealistic to be fulfilled -- went according to plan Sunday.

The top-seeded Texans lost to the inspired Colts, and Gary Kubiak's Chargers-soft team has been reeling since its 28-point loss to the Patriots roughly a month ago. I suspect those infamous lettermen jackets, given the team's 1-3 record since their unveiling, will end up in the bonfire at the next pep rally. There was even some satisfaction to be found in the NFC, where the Giants, those two-time Super Bowl spoilers, were eliminated.

All right, in the here and now, you have to feel good about the state of the Patriots. The 28-0 shutout of the shivering Dolphins was one of those encouraging, empowering regular-season finales, somewhat reminiscent of the 38-6 rout of the hapless Panthers in 2001, the 31-0 vengeful whitewashing of the Bills in '03, or even the methodical 21-7 win over the Niners in '04. It's just the way a championship aspirer is supposed to end the regular season, with a tune-up to make sure all parts of the machine are working in unison.

Coming off a sluggish win over lowly Jacksonville that left Brady infuriated, the Patriots were all business Sunday. It felt like they were constantly on the Miami 30-yard-line or so and threatening, and you saw what you needed to see. The One-Armed Gronk returned after a five-week absence, making his first catch midway through the first quarter and opening up the field for others as only he does for a Wes Welker scoring grab seconds later. It was great to see him again.

Stevan Ridley ran for two scores and didn't put the ball on the ground, encouraging signs given his tough and skilled running style is going to be crucial to postseason success. Danny Woodhead capped a truly excellent season with another strong performance (eight touches on offense, 97 yards), and oncoming Justin Francis led a shorthanded-but-swarming defense with three sacks, which is 0.5 less than Mark Anderson and Andre Carter had combined all season.

The only aggravation was that ultimate NFL equalizer -- an injury to a key player. While Jim Nantz and Phil Simms prattled on about seeding and Dolphins kicker Nate Kaeding warmed up for one of his traditional late-season misses, Patriots fans held their collective breath as Rob Ninkovich, who is just now gaining national notice for all of the Vrabelian things he does, had to be be helped off the field with what the team said was hip injury.

Here's hoping the bye week helps his recovery, because the challenge would be tougher without him. But barring catastrophe, I still believe the Patriots will meet it. I've felt for several weeks now that this would be another Super Bowl season. I still do. Now we just know the route. It begins two weeks from now in Foxborough and it goes through Denver.

It should be noted that this the first time the Broncos and the Patriots have entered the playoffs 1-2 since the '96 postseason. The Patriots advanced to New Orleans that year. Sixteen seasons later -- and 11 after the first championship of this historic run was secured on the same site -- they will again.

Not that we're getting ahead of ourselves or anything.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Welcome to the 16th and final regular-season installment of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-but-lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots' weekly matchup that runs right here every Friday at noonish.

The 11-4 Patriots, coming off sluggish 23-16 win over the Jaguars, wrap up the regular season and determine their playoff seeding when they take on Don Nottingham Jim Kiick Benny Malone Delvin Williams Sammy Smith Bernie Parmalee Abdul-Karim Al-Jabbar Ricky Williams Reggie Bush and the 7-8 Miami Dolphins.

Let's get to the details.

THREE PLAYERS I'LL BE WATCHING OTHER THAN TOM BRADY AND POSSIBLY RYAN MALLETT
1. Brandon Lloyd: Yeah, I know, he's got his flaws. He's not big on yards after the catch, he hasn't been much of a deep threat, and he still isn't entirely simpatico with Tom Brady on his reads. But you probably knew all of those things, since for whatever reason the negative is often dwelled upon when it comes to Lloyd at the expense of all that he has brought to the offense. I don't know that the Patriots have ever had a better receiver along the sidelines, and his knack for the spectacular has been fun to watch. Lloyd enters Sunday's game with 902 receiving yards, and I hope he has another 100 or so in him against the Dolphins. Should he go over 1,000 yards for the season, perhaps that would put an end to all foolish Chad Ochocinco comparisons for good.

2. Brian Hartline: In the first meeting between the Patriots and Dolphins this season, Hartline had five receptions for 84 yards. Solid numbers, but they could have been spectacular had rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill been able to find him when he was wide open on at least a couple of his other five targets. Hartline has over 1,000 receiving yards this season, and he'll bump up that number provided that his quarterback does a better job of getting him the ball Sunday.

3. Dont'a Hightower: I have little doubt that he's going to be a very valuable and versatile cog in this defense for at least the next half-dozen years, but the camera on Sunday caught him in jogging-it mode when there was a play to be made at least once, and special-teams lifer Tracy White outplayed him against the Jaguars. Letting the quality of the opponent determine effort level is a common rookie mistake, but it's one Hightower needs to grow out of immediately.

YOU KNOW, ROB NINKOVICH IS PRETTY DARN GOOD
I've long admired Bill Barnwell's football writing -- whether the outlet was Patriots Daily, Football Outsiders, his contributions to the Patriots Maple Street Press Annuals I edited, or now at Grantland -- for many reasons, but at the top of the attributes list is his determination not to let the facts become clouded by conventional wisdom. He's true to what he sees and what the data tells him, which is why he has extra credibility when he does something seemingly unconventional -- such as, say, selecting Ninkovich as one of the linebackers on his AFC All-Pro team. Here's what he wrote:

I'll excuse you if you take a step back from the computer screen right now, but Ninkovich always seems to show up when the Patriots need him most. He's managed to make huge plays in a number of games over the past year, most notably when he strip-sacked Mark Sanchez to end the Pats-Jets overtime game earlier this year. His impact stretches across the stat sheet, as Ninkovich ranks among the league leaders in sacks (eight), stuffs (seven), and forced fumbles (five). Once a practice squad journeyman and backup long snapper, Ninkovich has become an essential part of the New England defense virtually overnight.

Ninkovich has become sort of a less-heralded version of Mike Vrabel, minus all the goal-line touchdown receptions. He's not Vrabel's equal, but he's a reasonable facsimile, and that's pretty impressive for a guy who bounced back and forth between the Dolphins and Saints before he was an under-the-radar signing by the Patriots in August 2009.

COMPLETELY RANDOM FOOTBALL CARD
Speaking of former Dolphins who are thriving with the Patriots, here's an updated scorecard on the deal that sent Wes Welker from Miami to New England for second- and seventh-round picks in March 2007.

Welker with the Patriots (regular season): 92 games, 664 receptions, 7,365 yards, 36 touchdowns.

Second-round pick with the Dolphins: Center Samson Satele started all 32 games during his two seasons in Miami before he was traded to the Raiders to make room for center Jake Grove. He's now with the Colts.

Seventh-round pick with the Dolphins: Defensive end Abraham Wright out of Colorado never played a game for Miami after injuring his knee during training camp.

Figure that's a timely update given the opponent and that we're currently in the season of giving. There haven't been many football gifts to the Patriots through the years better than that one.

'WELL, I HEARD THAT JULIUS ADAMS SAID HE WANTS TO RIP SOME PEOPLES' FACES OFF ...'
This 14-minute-plus clip from the NBC pregame show before the Patriots-Dolphins AFC Championship game in 1985 is gold for many reasons, not the least of which is the reminder of how enjoyable Dick Enberg and Merlin Olsen were as a broadcast team during their '80s heyday. I recommend watching the entire flashback if you've got a few minutes, but if you don't, just skip ahead to the 9-minute mark and some hilariously canned trash-talk between Julius Adams and a completely goofy Dan Marino, who apparently found the time to record the clip in between pushing Isotoners and yelling at Mark Duper and Mark Clayton.

PREDICTION, OR HOW MUCH SCOREBOARD WATCHING WILL YOU BE DOING?
Well, a lot, I'd think, which makes for a fun day of football. The best-case scenario is a Texans loss to the Colts in the 1 p.m. game, which would allow the Patriots to secure a bye with a win no matter what the Broncos do against the Chiefs. That seems more than feasible, though I wonder how much of a priority Bill Belchick will put on resting some of his battered regulars such as Aqib Talib, Brandon Spikes, Aaron Hernandez, and the entire offensive line more or less. The hunch here is that at the end of the day, the Patriots wind up as the No. 2 seed and get that much-needed week of rest before the games that determine legacies begin. Patriots 27, Dolphins 13

(Previous game's prediction: Patriots 45, Jaguars 17. Final score: Patriots 23, Jaguars 16: Season record: 11-4.)

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

They won.

Exhale.

They won.

In the general scheme of the NFL, nothing matters more than whether a particular game is chalked up in the W column or the L column. It's trite and rudimentary, sure, but it's the trite and rudimentary truth. Potential and expectations lie, but the standings do not.

The fella surveying the scene in the above photo will take a frustrating win over a loss that comes with encouraging signs every single time. Which is why Bill Belichick's postgame mood after the Patriots' 23-16 win over the allegedly hapless Jacksonville Jaguars was better than his string of monosyllabic snorts after the 41-34 loss to the Niners a week ago.

The Patriots began Sunday with 10 wins and a shot at a first-round bye. They end it with 11 wins and -- in part thanks to the Texans' loss to the Minnesota Petersons -- a still-reasonable shot at that first-round bye.

They won. Exhale. They did what they needed to do. This was no sequel to the bizarre, late loss to the lousy Miami Dolphins in 2004. Only the Red Sox celebrate eight-year anniversaries.

Playing the Jaguars, who entered with a 2-12 record and an apparently unjust reputation for going through the motions, was a situation that should not have required an escape. But when one was necessary, the Patriots pulled off their Houdini routine, with Patrick Chung intercepting Chad Henne's pass on the game's final play. It was the maligned Chung's second interception of the afternoon, one more indicator that this game didn't follow any ordinary game plan.

So now that we've reminded and reestablished, in way too many words, that a win is a win is a win, feel free to join along in the brief hunt for context and the briefer but necessary airing of grievances.

First, context. Or more precisely, the utter lack thereof at the moment. It's pretty much impossible to get a read on the Patriots' Super Bowl chances at the moment, because there has been wild fluctuation in their play, as well as the play of some of their chief competitors.

After their 42-14 dismantling of the Texans two weeks ago, there was a giddiness that has been familiar this time of year during this decade-plus run. They were rolling, and anyone east of Denver who watched them that Monday night had to believe they were the heavy favorite in the AFC. They looked like world-beaters, potential champions. If you're particularly optimistic, probable champions.

But six days later on the same field, they were late arrivals against the powerful Niners, falling behind 31-3 before scoring 28 points in fewer than 15 minutes to tie a game they would eventually lose. Cue the Belichick snorts, dim the giddiness.

Sunday's ugly win did little to offer a gauge on the likelihood of winning that fourth Super Bowl at the same place they won their first. Frankly, after watching the Texans lose to the Vikings, the Ravens drive a stake through the Giants, the Broncos continue to breeze through their cushy schedule with a victory over the Browns, and the Seahawks' ferocious dismantling of the Niners, it's a fool's errand to try to project anything week-to-week in this league right now. The trends are as scattered as a Jets quarterback's passes.

Which is where the grievances -- one primary grievance, really -- come in to play. There's no doubt in my mind that the Patriots can win the Super Bowl this year; I've believed for a while and still believe that they will win the AFC, bye or no bye, and wouldn't a showdown/rematch with Pete Carroll's Seahawks or the Niners be something?

But man, they have to do a better job of preventing Tom Brady from being spindled and mutilated. It's one thing to succumb to the Niners' pass rush a couple of times. That's going to happen. But Sunday, Brady was sacked three times and hit -- often belted -- nine more by the Jaguars. He's lucky he was in good enough condition to rip into his teammates for their lack of effort and execution before the media was permitted in the locker room after the game.

The Patriots are dealing with more than the usual array of late-season injuries -- Aaron Hernandez's inconsistency is in part due to his physical state, Brandon Spikes and Alfonzo Dennard stayed behind with Rob Gronkowski Sunday, and Aqib Talib probably should have too, given that he was limping around like Fred Sanford. But continuing to put Brady in danger endangers everything, and there will be plenty of concern about the condition of his right hand after he bounced it off Jason Babin's helmet while throwing a pass.

It's at the point where after the latest vicious hit, you hold your breath until he gets up. Thank goodness he did, every time, ultimately delivering the win, and so the Patriots and their fans could exhale yesterday when all was said and done. A bye is still in play. It could have been worse.

The Dolphins are next up, the final regular season matchup before the games that determine legacies and reputations begin.

I don't know about you, but a win by any means or margin -- and no more bruises for Brady and his most essential teammates -- sound like reasonable requests to me.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Welcome to the 15th installment of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-but-lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots' weekly matchup that runs right here every Friday at noonish. The 10-4 Patriots, coming off a wild 41-31 loss to the Niners Monday night, get a moment to exhale when they take on Mark Brunell Rob Johnson Jonathan Quinn Byron Leftwich David Garrard Quinn Gray Blaine Gabbert and the wretched 2-12 future-home-of-Tim Tebow Jacksonville Jaguars. Let's get to the details.

THREE PLAYERS I'LL BE WATCHING OTHER THAN TOM BRADY
Cecil Shorts III: The Jaguars are 31st in the league in total offense, 31st in total defense, 31st in points scored, and 29th in points allowed. Their best player, Maurice Jones-Drew, the league's top rusher last year, has not played since Week 7 because of a foot injury and did not practice Thursday. Chad Henne is their quarterback, and while he's comparably competent to Blaine Gabbert and has had his moments against the Patriots, he's Chad Henne, for pete's sake. As you may have surmised by their .142 winning percentage, there's not a lot worth watching on the Jaguars unless rubbernecking at ineptitude is your thing. So by semi-default, I'll be keeping an eye on Shorts, the second-year deep-threat out of Mount Union with the cool name and increasingly impressive statistics (49 catches, 925 yards, 7 touchdowns).

Stevan Ridley: Ridley has four fumbles, two lost, in 252 carries this season. Old friend BenJarvus Green-Ellis, renowned for never coughing up the ball during his time with the Patriots, has three this season, two lost, in 263 carries for the Bengals. I'm not dismissing Ridley's recent troubles in holding on to the football -- it's impossible not to have some concern that he may commit a pivotal turnover in the playoffs. But I desperately hope he doesn't get buried because of this. Ridley has been an essential contributor to the Patriots' offense this season (1,105 yards, 10 rushing touchdowns), and his ascent is one reason some of us believe this year's team is superior to last year's AFC champs. I'll always wonder if he could have made a difference in the Super Bowl last year had he not been relegated to the doghouse. Continuing to have faith in him is a risk worth taking.

Jeremy Mincey: A sixth-round pick of the Patriots in 2006, he never played a down for the team, and stands as the rare discard who has gone on to success elsewhere. He has 10 sacks and six forced fumbles for the Jaguars over the past two seasons.

COMPLETELY RANDOM FOOTBALL CARD
Arguably the greatest player in Jaguars history and a respected Patriot for his final two seasons, Taylor ranks 15th in NFL history with 11,695 rushing yards, which I believe is 100 yards or so more than Adrian Peterson's total so far this season.

What Taylor accomplished in his 13 NFL seasons is all the more remarkable considering he missed more than a quarter of his career with injuries, having played in 153 out of a possible 208 games by my rudimentary calculations. In a weird, ironic way, maybe all of the injuries helped his longevity by keeping his legs fresh.

Despite the durability issues, Taylor truly was a special back, running with an uncommon blend of power and speed when he was at his best. The Jaguars drafted in him in the first round in 1998 -- the same year the Patriots selected Robert Edwards -- and he ended New England's season that year, running for 162 yards in Jacksonville's 25-10 victory over Scott Zolak and the Patriots in the AFC playoffs. His peak was probably five years later, when at age 27 he ran 345 times for 1,572 yards.

Always a favorite at this address, I wish he'd been able to stay healthy -- a recurring lament, sure, and it's possible he pulled his hamstring during this photoshoot -- during his two seasons here, because he still could get four yards a pop with talent and guile while showing flashes from time to time of the threat he once was.

THE NIGHT THE LIGHTS WENT OUT IN FOXBOROUGH
Good thing Ed Hochuli wasn't the ref that night. He'd still be explaining how electricity works.

(Also: Jim Gray, sideline reporter. The worst.)

(Also, Part II: It gets lost in all of the amazing moments that have happened over the past decade or so, but the 1996 Patriots' run to the Super Bowl was an absolute blast, probably the most enjoyable Patriots team of my lifetime to that point.)

PREDICTION, OR IS THIS THE WEEK CHAD HENNE PULLS AN A.J. FEELEY ON 'EM?
No. No, it is not. Sure, I suppose there are cautionary tales of a Patriots team underestimating or playing poorly late in the season against an opponent that should be easily outclassed, especially if you're willing to go back eight years. But obviously it's rare, very rare, and though even Bill Belichick struggled to come up with platitudes and plaudits for the Jags this week, focus should not be an issue after Sunday's tough loss to the Niners. Tom Brady will extend his streak of consecutive games with a touchdown pass to 47, seven shy of Drew Brees's record, before giving way to Ryan Mallett, Ridley will get through the game without putting the ball on the ground, and Henne's attempts to go deep to Shorts and Justin Blackmon won't come close to keeping pace with the Patriots' historically potent offense. No drama, no worries, and one more win closer to the games that really matter. Patriots 45, Jaguars 17.

Previous game's prediction: Patriots 31, Niners 21. Final score: Niners 41, Patriots 34. Season record: 10-4.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

FOXBOROUGH -- Well, sign me up for the sequel to that right now.

For much of this season -- heck, even as far back as the immediate aftermath of the disappointment in Indianapolis last February -- the recurring football wish in this space is that February 3 in New Orleans would deliver us a third Super Bowl showdown between the Patriots and the Giants.

The catharsis of getting that fourth Super Bowl victory against the franchise that has been been both lucky and good in denying the Patriots twice seemed both appropriate and reasonable.

But after Sunday night's abstract, thrilling, ultimately frustrating 41-34 loss to the ferocious San Francisco 49ers, that wish has evaporated like, oh, a 28-point lead against a ticked-off Tom Brady. And not just because the Giants don't appear, at least for the moment, capable of living up to the NFC end of the bargain.

We've found something better, just as potentially fulfilling and even more fascinating. Play it again, Patriots and Niners. Now this is the matchup I want to see in Super Bowl XLVII. You with me?

I know, I know -- one game at a time, we're getting ahead of ourselves, it's a long, difficult road just to get there, platitude, platitude, cliche, cliche, all of that. Of course. The Niners are still battling for their division title, with their biggest game of the season not the pelt they just claimed, but the one ahead Sunday night at Seattle.

(Aside: You bet I'm mystified by a football universe in which Pete Carroll has taken a turn for the ruthless, fake punting up 30 points Sunday, and the Patriots are falling behind by four touchdowns at home to anyone in December, a month in which they'd had 20 consecutive victories on their home turf.)

And as exhilarating as it was to watch Brady rally the Patriots with four unanswered touchdowns in a span of 14 minutes and 17 seconds in the second half -- the sequence, and I just know you're reading along with me from the game book at home, was Danny Woodhead touchdown run, Andy Lee punt, Brady touchdown run, Andy Lee punt, Aaron Hernandez touchdown catch, Andy Lee punt, Danny Woodhead touchdown run -- the reality is that they still lost, and a better opportunity may have been lost with it.

The Denver Broncos, winners of nine in a row and now 11-3 behind Tim Tebow's successor, you know, that Buick-pushing what's-his-name, slipped past the Patriots into the No. 2 spot in the conference standings behind the Houston Texans (12-2).

With home games against Cleveland and Kansas City ahead, the Broncos aren't losing again before the playoffs barring catastrophe, while the Texans would have to lose to the Vikings and Colts with the Patriots winning out in order to be supplanted as a top-two seed.

The loss all but assured that the Patriots will require detours through Houston and Denver to get to New Orleans. That is a gauntlet. Coming just six days after the Patriots' affirming, now-we're-rolling 42-14 destruction of the Texans, it was undeniably a frustrating step backward, and that early-season loss to the Cardinals looks worse by the week.

"They won, give them credit. I'm more worried about our team. Talk to Jim [Harbaugh] about his team. We just didn't do a good enough job,'' Belichick said. "We did some things that were all right tonight, but not enough of them. We made too many mistakes. We just did too many things that weren't good.''

It's true, and they are not difficult to pinpoint. The Niners' 7-0 lead after the first quarter felt like 17-0 so thoroughly did they dominate, and less than five minutes into the third quarter the score did jibe with their performance -- they went up 31-3 after the first of Michael Crabtree's two touchdown receptions. His second proved the winner, coming one play after a special-teams disaster -- a recurring theme -- allowed LaMichael James to return the kickoff 62 yards after the Patriots had tied it at 31-31. Crabtree's winning catch was the third one-play touchdown drive of the night for the Niners, which tells you something, and whatever it is does not reflect well on the Patriots.

What else wasn't good? Well, Stevan Ridley is getting slapped with the Fumbler label again, having coughed up the football once and nearly doing so earlier in the game, and it has to stop. They need him -- I'll always wonder if he might have made a difference against the Giants had he not been stapled to the bench for similar ball-protection infractions -- but first they need to be able to trust him.

It would have been nice, too, had the Patriots been able to recover more than just one of the Niners' six official fumbles, or had the offense not delayed its arrival until the second half.

"It was just execution.'' said Tom Brady, who surpassed 4,000 passing yards on the season, threw his 30th touchdown pass to keep his consecutive games streak with a TD throw alive at 48, and didn't seem to particularly care about any of the milestones. "It wasn't like there was a magic formula to what we were doing. We just stopped killing ourselves. We just can't turn the ball over and we can't miss plays that we have opportunities at."

There's frustration in not being able to turn the comeback into victory and more secure playoff positioning, and it would have been cool symmetry for Brady to join his boyhood hero Joe Montana as the only quarterback to rally his team from a 28-point deficit to win in the regular season. But good things, encouraging things, did occur -- Brandon Lloyd submitted his best game as a Patriot, with 10 catches for 190 yards, and don't look now but he has a decent shot at a 1,000-yard season. Woodhead proved essential in moderation yet again. Most important, the Patriots showed their competitive spirit won't be broken against an extraordinarily fast and physical opponent, even when the deficit might seem insurmountable to skeptics and couch-bound coordinators.

Man, what a game that was, an entertaining, unpredictable, no-quit-in-anyone bout between two outstanding teams. Ed Hochuli couldn't even explain some of what was going on, though did he ever try. It's a game to appreciate, even if the outcome means you can't truly enjoy it.

The reality of who the Patriots are is in the middle between what we saw last week and this one. They're not as unstoppable as they looked against the Texans, and not as inept as they were through the first half against the Niners. But their championship aspirations are real. The Niners, a damn good team, won this round, and barely.

Here's hoping there's a second six or so weeks from now. I suspect the lesson has been learned and the Patriots will show up well before halftime for that one.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Welcome to the 14th installment of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-but-lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots' weekly matchup that runs right here every Friday at noonish. The 10-3 Patriots, coming off a 42-14 Monday night throttling of the AFC top-seed-for-the-moment Houston Texans, face their second elite opponent in six days when they take on John Brodie Steve DeBerg Joe Montana Steve Young Jim Druckenmiller That Goat Farmer Guy Picked Ahead of Brady Alex Smith Colin Kaepernick and the hard-hitting 9-3-1 Niners. Let's get to the details.

THREE PLAYERS I'LL BE WATCHING OTHER THAN THE UNDERRATED TOM BRADY
Aldon Smith: The Niners' freakishly talented second-year end has 19.5 sacks, including a record 5.5 in one game against the Bears. He needs three in the final three games to tie Michael Strahan's single-season Favre-assisted NFL record, and if the Patriots can limit him to one, that would have to be considered a victory. Wanna feel old? He was born nine months and three days after Joe Montana, John Taylor and the Niners beat the Bengals in Super Bowl XXIII.

Wes Welker: No, he didn't have his best game against the Texans, with a couple of drops among his three catches for 52 yards. But chances are he will be essential against the Niners' ferocious pass-rush, and a more typical 10-catch, 100-yard performance is probable.

Colin Kaepernick: Since taking over for Alex Smith during the Week 11 tie with the Rams, the strong-armed and swift second-year quarterback has completed 67 percent of his passes. A week ago, his 50-yard scoring run was the key play in the win over the Dolphins. And though he just recently began accruing playing time, he has a higher quarterback ranking than the likes of Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, and Andy Dalton. While the Patriots may well puzzle him and solve the Pistol, it's safe to presume that Kaepernick presents much more of a challenge than the marginal game-manager Smith.

COMPLETELY RANDOM FOOTBALL CARD, A.K.A. YEAH, BUT ABOUT THAT REPUTED GOAT FARMER PICKED AHEAD OF BRADY
There's no chance Brady requires a reminder, of course, even after all that he's accomplished. But just for the sport of it, here again is the "Brady 6" -- the half-dozen quarterbacks chosen ahead of him in the 2000 NFL Draft: Tee Martin, Marc Bulger, Chris Redman, Spergon Wynn, Chad Pennington, and Giovanni Carmazzi, who went to Brady's beloved Niners in the third round and never threw an NFL regular-season pass.

If you don't want to click on the Carmazzi portion of the "Brady 6" in the above clip, here are the two most relevant sentences.

"He lives two hours north of San Francisco, and describes himself as as a yoga-exercising farmer. [Pause for a close-up of a goat.] He has five goats."

His linkedin page, however, suggests a more mainstream existence. Also, there is no mention of his current goat count.

THE RETURN OF RANDY MOSS
Sometimes Moss's ridiculous 2007 -- in which he had a record 23 touchdown receptions and was 2 minutes away from being able to say he scored the winning touchdown in the Super Bowl -- feels like just a few calendars' worth of Sundays ago. Other times, he feels like closer to a decade than just five years -- it feels like such a fundamentally different offensive era it's easy to overlook that for at least a couple of games he was teammates with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. After spending last year out of football, he's found and apparently accepted his niche at age 35 as a role player (21 receptions) for the Niners. The respect is genuine and mutual between him and Bill Belichick, but I wouldn't put it past him to pull off one extraordinary and long touchdown reception Sunday, a flashback to some pretty good times.

WHILE WE WAIT FOR THE INEVITABLE FOOTAGE OF JOHN HARBAUGH ON "PARKER LEWIS CAN'T LOSE" TO EMERGE ... This clip, unearthed by Doug Farrar at Yahoo!'s tremendous Shutdown Corner blog, of current Niners coach and then-Colts quarterback Jim Harbaugh appearing on "Saved By The Bell" is an entire wheel of early '90s cheese. Kudos to Harbaugh, though -- he sold his role as Screech's good-hearted football-playing cousin pretty well considering he looks -- and still acts -- like the kind of guy who in high school would have bounced Screech off a couple of lockers just because he could. Slater totally would have put him in his place, though.

IF YOU LOOK CLOSELY, YOU CAN SEE THE FUTURE AT AGE 4 1/2
This, from Greg Garber's January 2008 feature on Tom Brady for ESPN.com:

On the day Joe Montana threw the pass that became "The Catch," Brady was in the stands at Candlestick Park. He was 4˝ years old, and he cried through most of the first half because his dad wouldn't buy him a foam "No. 1" finger. The Bradys had season tickets to the 49ers games, and little Tom always wore his Montana jersey.

OK, admit it -- at least once, you've looked at this footage, maybe searched for a ticked-off kid in a No. 16 jersey, and wondered where he was sitting, haven't you?

PREDICTION, OR 'IS THIS THE WEEK THIS NITWIT FINALLY PICKS AGAINST THE PATRIOTS? No. But almost. How can you not have enormous respect for this 49ers team, particularly the defense, which features not only the aforementioned Aldon Smith, but also the fierce Patrick Willis, Justin Smith, NaVorro Bowman ... the pure talent and tireless energy of the entire group is enviable, and to notice that they are second in the league in total defense is to wonder how they're not ahead of Pittsburgh. Their matchup with the Patriots' No. 1-ranked offense is the definition of a clash,, and there may be another level of intrigue if Rob Gronkowski returns from his broken forearm. In a sense, my pick comes down to believing that the Patriots' improving defense, which has forced 34 turnovers and has everyone in the proper place after the acquisition of Aqib Talib, forces young Kaepernick into the kind of costly mistakes that his counterpart won't make. It's perhaps a Super Bowl preview, and undoubtedly the Patriots' toughest test yet. Behind Brady, they'll pass. Patriots 31, Niners 21.

Previous game's prediction: Patriots 41, Texans 27. Final score: Patriots 42, Texans 14. Season record: 10-3.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

FOXBOROUGH -- The Houston Texans showed up at Gillette Stadium Sunday night adorned in letterman jackets purchased just for the occasion, an attempt at a unifying sartorial gesture masterminded by Shaun Cody and Connor Barwin, and possibly Joe Maddon.

So much for dressing for success. Forty-two Patriots points and 60 minutes of embarrassment later, the Texans departed looking like a rag-tag junior varsity, having been put in their place by the big man on campus who has embarrassed so many other wannabes before. The lesson, delivered in blunt fashion by Tom Brady once and again, was this: Good idea buying those jackets, fellas. Because I think we all know you're not earning one at my expense.

Brady threw for 296 yards and four touchdowns without an interception, Aaron Hernandez had a pair of scoring receptions, and an improving defense stalled the Texans' potent offense as the Patriots scored the game's first 28 points en route to a 42-14 victory over Houston (11-2), the top seed in the AFC.

Well, for now. The Patriots (10-3) are No. 2 in the current AFC standings. But Monday they proved they are the team to beat.

"That's a good locker room in there right now,'' said Patriots coach Bill Belichick during his postgame press conference. "Those guys feel real good about the way they played, and they should. The players really did a heck of a job tonight, all the way across the board. We got good contributions from all three phases. I thought these guys really tried to play the game the way we need to play it. Houston is a good a football team, but we just did a few things better than they did tonight.''

That's about as effusive as Belichick gets, but it's understandable -- even with the tough 49ers due in Sunday and so much still at stake, this is a victory worth savoring. Sure, the Texans may have arrived at Gillette Stadium dressed like they were paying homage to "Happy Days'' and confident Monday night would be just that, but the visitors did not try to hide the importance of this game in establishing their credibility as a true contender.

Wide receiver Andre Johnson suggested it was the biggest game in franchise history, a curious statement given the Texans played two playoff games last season, but indicative of how Houston valued the chance to make a statement against the perennially championship-contending Patriots.

The Texans' reputation would have been made with a win. They'd have been branded as The Team To Beat. Instead, it was the Patriots who made a statement, one that has been building through their seven consecutive victories since that silly loss in Seattle: The road to the Super Bowl goes through Foxborough. Again? You'd better believe it.

Brady affably refused to acknowledge as much after the game, but this victory had the feel of a message game. At their best during this extraordinary 11-season-and-still-going run, the Patriots have found tremendous motivation and satisfaction in putting a supposed contender -- particularly one that talks a lot or is getting credit for things it hasn't yet accomplished -- in its place. In style and substance, it reminded me of a win the 2003-2004 teams so often put together en route to an eventual celebration beneath a sky of falling confetti.

Brady was so pumped up after his 37-yard touchdown pass to the unjustly maligned Brandon Lloyd to cap a brutally efficient six-play, 82-yard first-quarter drive to put the Patriots up 14-0 that you'd have thought yappy former Steeler Anthony Smith was in coverage. He was even more animated after he ran for six yards on third and 5 to keep a drive alive on the final play of the third quarter. This meant more than the usual W, though he wasn't about to admit it.

"I don't run too often, so I've got to show them I can do it a little bit. I was pretty fired up at that point,'' Brady said. A couple of questions later, he denied that there was any motivation to be found in the hype surrounding the Texans. "Well, they deserve it,'' he said after leading the Patriots to 419 total yards, 27 first-downs, and a 50 percent conversion rate on third down. "They're a good team, so they deserve a lot of the credit."

Meanwhile, Belichick dismissed the question of whether Brady is the Most Valuable Player in a way only Donald Trump's good buddy Bob can. "I don't know,'' Belichick said. "We don't play everybody in the league. He's our quarterback and we're glad we've got him.''

OK then. Let's turn to Texans coach Gary Kubiak, who knows brilliant quarterback play when he sees it, having backed up and later served as the offensive coordinator for John Elway in Denver as well as winning a championship as the QB coach for the 1994 San Francisco 49ers. His appreciation of Brady was more apparent than any disappointment he had in his own team's performance.

"That's the type of team they are,'' said Kubiak. "They make you look really bad. They're hurrying up and getting in a formation and if you're not on top of your stuff, No. 12 is not going to miss it. He doesn't miss many, and he sure as hell didn't tonight. That's what it takes to get to where that team has been for a long time. They did it again tonight. Credit to them."

If this movie seems familiar, well, it should. What the Patriots are accomplishing now is an enhanced version of what they pulled off last season. The offense, on pace for 581 points, which would be eight shy of the NFL record set in 2007, is more versatile than it is has ever been. Shadow-roster refugees such as Donte' Stallworth are contributing -- he had a 63-yard touchdown reception -- and Rob Gronkowski, an offense unto himself, should be back in a week or two.

But it's not just about the offense; something good is happening on the opportunistic, hard-hitting defense, which is getting extraordinary weekly performances out of Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo, while Brandon Spikes sets the physical tone in the way Rodney Harrison or Lawyer Milloy used to. If Aqib Talib's hip is OK, the pieces are finally in the right places in the secondary, especially now that Devin McCourty is thriving as a play-making safety -- his interception in the end zone thwarted Houston's second drive.

It may not have felt like December in New England -- it was 59 degrees at opening kickoff, so who needs a jacket anyway, Barwin? -- but the results were the same. The Patriots have now won 20 consecutive games at home in December. This is their time of year, and based on recent performance and results, who's betting now against us saying the same thing in February?

The only suspense in the second half, if you care about such matters, was the question of when Belichick would relieve Brady, who did take more than the usual amount of hard hits. Let the record show that second-year backup Ryan Mallett got 5 minutes and 9 seconds of playing time.

Whether that's enough for him to receive the proverbial varsity letter is undetermined. What we do know after this decade-plus of extraordinary success is that here in New England is that such honors are earned, not bought or prematurely bestowed.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

It probably should not come as a surprise that the documentary on Bo Jackson, which debuted Saturday, is the highest-rated film yet in ESPN's superb "30 for 30'' series, earning a 2.3 rating in major markets. "You Don't Know Bo'' was a perfect marriage and near-perfect execution of subject and format. I'm not sure which I've looked forward to more this week -- that film, or Monday's Patriots-Texans game. Both had the anticipatory vibe of major events.

The "30 for 30'' series, originally conceived by Bill Simmons as a way for ESPN to celebrate its 30th anniversary in 2009 by celebrating stories, moments, and personalities that shaped the sports landscape along the way, is an extraordinary ongoing success and now includes more than 50 films under its own or the "ESPN Presents" umbrella.

My personal rating of "You Don't Know Bo," which was directed by Michael Bonfiglio, among "30 for 30" films more or less corresponds with the Nielsen ratings. My four previous favorites are "The Best That Never Was" (directed by Jonathan Hock, on former Oklahoma running back Marcus Dupree), "The Two Escobars" (Jeff Zimbalist and Michael Zimbalist), "Into the Wind" (directed by Steve Nash and Ezra Holland, on Terry Fox) and "The Announcement" (Nelson George). Bo makes five. Organize them any way you see fit.

You almost wonder why Bo, whose did-he-really-just-do-that? athletic feats as an outfielder for the Kansas City Royals and as a running back/hobbyist for the Los Angeles Raiders made him a legend in his own, unfortunately abbreviated, time, wasn't a topic sooner. He's one of the first names I thought of when the project was announced. His 50th birthday was last week -- yeah, it was that long ago -- so this is as appropriate a time as any to pay proper homage.

Of course, you knew the legend of Bo. At least, I hope you did, and Saturday's film served as an entertaining, damn-they-got-this-right reminder rather than an introduction. He was an understated, matter-of-fact but engaging interview, clearly proud of his accomplishments but not defined by them. We were awed, but his shrug-and-a-smile tenor suggests that's who he always was, and thus expected to be.

I supposed I had some minor -- well, they aren't even big enough to be gripes. Call them observations of a trained nitpicker. I would have liked to have heard from football/baseball combo athletes who attempted the same crossover move, such as Brian Jordan or Deion Sanders, and yes, that's the only time I'll ever say I want to hear from Deion Sanders. Mark Gubicza and Marcellus Wiley were perhaps too prominent at the expense of more anecdotal voices, and there was redundancy in some talking heads' praise of his physical talent. Perhaps some more former teammates (though George Brett, who admitted he put off going to the bathroom to watch Bo hit, was tremendous) or a contemporary running back who marveled at Bo like the rest of us could have added more nuance.

And I disagree that he was a mythical figure in part because of a smaller media universe -- there was "SportsCenter'' to provide every amazing highlight no matter the season. The difference is that there was no Skip and Stephen A. to boil up some fake outrage the next morning. We saw what we needed and wanted to see with Bo -- the public trampling of Brian Bosworth on "Monday Night Football,'' the home run off Rick Reuschel in the '89 All-Star game -- without all of the ancillary noise.

But as I get older and farther away from Bo's late-'80s and early-'90s heyday as a sports and cultural icon, I've sometimes wondered whether the generations of sports fans that followed thought we were doing the "back in my day ...'' old guy's routine, that he couldn't have been the impossibly superheroic meteor we fans of a certain age reminisce about. You had to see Gale Sayers or Tony C. yourself, like your dad or granddad did, you know?

But he's one athlete whose highlights render hyperbole ineffective, and whether it was a former coach pointing out where he hit a home run that may or may not have ever landed, or footage of him running full speed up a wall while wearing spikes or leaving the Seattle Seahawks defense in his vapors, it was pleasant reaffirmation that Bo Jackson still resonates. Perhaps best of all is the coda at the end, when he hangs out in what he calls his man cave -- middle-aged Bo isn't above middle-aged-man jargon -- while carving arrows after growing bored watching football with his wife. There is no discernible regret that it ended so fast, no lament to be found. And you realize that Bo always knew and stayed true to the real Bo, even when the rest of us were reveling in the whirlwind.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Welcome to the 13th installment of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-but-lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots' weekly matchup that runs right here every Friday at noonish. This week, the 9-3 Patriots, who clinched their ninth AFC title in 10 seasons last Sunday, prepare for their showdown of the season (so far) in a Monday night matchup against David Carr Dave Ragone Tony Banks Matt Leinart Matt Schaub and the 11-1 Houston Texans. It has the potential to be a thriller, with added element of playoff positioning at stake. Let's get to the details.

THREE PLAYERS I'LL BE WATCHING OTHER THAN TOM BRADY
Jerod Mayo: He's second in the NFL in tackles, at least by the NFL's measure, and he's coming off what my colleague Greg Bedard called "his finest game this season'' that included a sack and a couple of other big plays in the running game. His unassuming manner and steady but not flashy play probably work against him, but should he contribute to stopping Arian Foster in the same manner he did in shutting down Reggie Bush last week, maybe he'll get his due attention.

Andre Johnson: Wasn't this guy supposed to have slowed down this season? Weren't the recurring hamstring issues supposed to have robbed him of a step? We should all age so gracefully. Johnson, 31, has 74 catches for 1,114 yards this season, his eighth in the NFL after being drafted third overall by the Texans in 2003. Johnson had 14 catches for 273 yards in Week 10 against Jacksonville, then followed that up with nine receptions for 188 yards on Thanksgiving against the Lions. I suspect we're going to find out a lot about Aqib Talib Monday night.

Patriots guards: Perhaps the most impressive aspect of the Patriots' game-clinching 16-play drive late in the Miami game is that they ran the ball down the Dolphins' throats behind a line that was absent starting guards Logan Mankins and Dan Connolly. Donald Thomas and Nick McDonald were stellar on that drive, but Tom Brady also got belted a couple of times in that game, and the Patriots haven't faced an inside pass rush like the Texans' since last February. Mankins practiced Thursday, an encouraging sign, because his return may be essential this week.

GRIEVANCE OF THE WEEK
Call it a pre-grievance, because I'm pretty sure I'll have one after ESPN's "Monday Night Football'' broadcast. Jon Gruden has already said this season that J.J. Watt is a future Hall of Famer -- he may be right, but the kid had played all of 21 NFL games at that point -- and is better at his position than any other player is at his particular position in the league. Now, don't get me wrong -- Watt is an absolute force, and as dependable as Nate Solder has been, you wish all those mock drafts that had the Patriots getting him with the 17th pick last year had become reality -- but you just know that Gruden is going to take his Watt-gushing to Favreian levels Monday night. I'm already annoyed by it. I'm pre-annoyed.

I recognize it's not the same franchise, the Texans' predecessor in Houston having packed up their fear-striking powder blue jerseys and bolted for Tennessee in 1997. But I'm old and incurably retro, and when I think of Houston and the NFL, I still think of the Oilers, and Earl Campbell, and the greatest prime-of-career running back I've ever seen, and then I inevitably end up watching the above clip a dozen times. I'll betcha Isiah Robertson, the Rams linebacker who probably still has the oil derrick decal from Campbell's helmet imprinted in his chest, does too.

COMPLETELY RANDOM FOOTBALL CARD
Vince Wilfork praised the Texans and specifically Johnson for their considerable ability this week, and I'm sure his sentiments are genuine. But I bet in a private moment both he and Johnson would agree that this year's Houston edition doesn't have the pure, top-of-the-depth chart talent of a team that they both played on more than a decade ago.

The 2001 Miami Hurricanes are widely regarded as the most talented roster in college football history, with 17 future first-round picks, many of whom are still NFL stars today. The roster included Wilfork, Johnson, Ed Reed, Sean Taylor, Kellen Winslow Jr., Jeremy Shockey, Willis McGahee, Frank Gore, Clinton Portis, D.J. Williams, Bryant McKinnie, William Joseph, Phillip Buchanon, Vernon Carey, Devin Hester, Roscoe Parrish, Antrel Rolle, and Jerome McDougle ... among others.

Even a marginal quarterback such as Ken Dorsey could win with that crew. Which he did. Not sure about Gino Torretta, though.

PREDICTION, OR 'IS THIS THE WEEK THIS NITWIT FINALLY PICKS AGAINST THE PATRIOTS?'
First of all, nope, and second of all, who are you calling a nitwit, son? Johnson said this is the biggest game in Texans history, which sort of dismisses the franchise's first playoff victory last January over the Bengals but also tells you how much this game means to Houston. Their approach in attempting to the beat the Patriots probably is no secret. They'll try to control the ball with the great Arian Foster -- the Texans average 36 minutes of possession time, so that is their usual mode of operation. They'll take a few shots with Johnson. And they'll count on Watt and friends to pressure Brady up the middle and try to hide the deficiencies in their tattered defensive backfield. Watt will get Brady once or twice; Brady will get the Texans' cornerbacks much more often. It's going to be wildly fun, especially for the home team, which will be the consensus favorite in the AFC after the final gun if it isn't already. Patriots 41, Texans 27.

Previous game's prediction: Patriots 38, Dolphins 17. Final score: Patriots 23, Dolphins 16. Season record: 9-3.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

That wasn't a trap game. No. It was a shove-it-down-their-trap game.

Should we consider, a few years from now, the Patriots' 23-16 victory over the Miami Dolphins Sunday -- a win that secured the franchise's ninth AFC East crown in 10 years -- chances are it won't be recalled as much more than another W on the schedule, one with a relatively close score.

There are so many highlights and legendary victories already in the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick Era -- and logically, quite a few still ahead -- that semi-dramatic division-clinching victories are often relegated to the footnotes.

It's an extraordinarily fortunate problem to have as a fan. But even those among us who too often ignore context and perspective for hysterics and concerns, who search for traps around all corners and find little joy in the journey, must recognize that value and meaning in Sunday's victory.

Maybe you did, maybe you didn't. But Tom Brady left no doubt about where he stood.

"That wasn't ugly, that was a great win," said Brady, who completed 24 of 40 passes for 238 yards and a touchdown. "They made it tough on us, there's no question about it. We fought hard, we made some terrific plays when we had to. They played really well; every single play was a challenge. We made some plays when we needed to. So it was a great win."

It was a great win, a meaningful win, and not just because it was punctuated with the ol' postgame hat and t-shirt of a division champion. It's meaningful because it's one that very well may serve as a harbinger for how they will win in January and beyond when or if Brady isn't at his sharpest on a given day.

Forget that it was just the Dolphins, who entered at 5-6 under new coach Joe Philbin and rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill. The Patriots went into a place that is chronically difficult on opponents (Brady has lost in Miami five times as a starter), against a flawed but upstart Dolphins team itching to make its season by taking a pelt from the Patriots, and behind an offensive line that had been forced to plug backups Donald Thomas and Nick McDonald in at guard, proceeded to hammer out a 16-play, 77-yard fourth-quarter drive in which they ran the ball down the throats of the Dolphins' well-regarded run defense. Stephen Gostkowski punctuated the drive, which took 7 minutes and 16 seconds off the clock, with a 20-yard field goal that made it a two-score game with 1:10 remaining.

That's how you do it. That's how you close a victory emphatically, something they have struggled to do even in certain games they ultimately won. And they did it by essentially handing the ball to Stevan Ridley and telling him, "Here you go, kid. Carry us to the end."

Ridley, the second-year back who went over 1,000 yards for the season Sunday, picked up 46 of his hard-fought 71 yards on that drive. The Dolphins knew what was coming and could do nothing to stop it, which speaks not only of the Patriots' ability to run the ball when they need to, but suggests the relentless Ridley is capable of being the big-game back that Corey Dillon was in 2004 and Antowain Smith was at times in 2001 and '03. I keep trying to come up with a comparison for Ridley in terms of style and skill, but I always end up back at the same place: He's exactly what everyone wanted Laurence Maroney to be.

With the running game picking up the slack Sunday and the opportunistic defense finding its identity, Patriots fans should be encouraged and emboldened as they face a fascinating two-week stretch in which they play the Texans and Niners, the top team in each conference according to the standings.

So much -- everything, really -- is yet to be determined regarding seeding and byes. But with the Texans immediately ahead and Baltimore falling to Pittsburgh Sunday night to essentially cause three-way tie between the Patriots, Broncos and Ravens for the No. 2 seed, the Patriots have a huge say in whether they secure a bye.

The magnitude of what's ahead the next two weeks is apparent even to the habitual yowlers, the sports-radio jargon-spewers, and the incurably concerned. No one is calling these trap games. But after what the Patriots did to the Dolphins, it might be wise to remember that one as a shut-your-trap game.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Welcome to the 12th installment of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-but-lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots' weekly matchup that runs right here every Friday at noonish. This week, the 8-3 and rolling Patriots host David Woodley Scott Mitchell Craig Erickson John Beck Cleo Lemon Ryan Tannehill and the better-than-you'd-ever-have-thought-after-watching-"Hard Knocks" Miami Dolphins. Let's get to the details.

THREE PLAYERS I'LL BE WATCHING OTHER THAN TOM BRADY
1. Reggie Bush: Impressively and somewhat surprisingly, the most well-paid running back in Southern Cal history has done a heck of a job reviving his career in Miami after washing out with the Saints. He's rushed for 662 yards and 4.4 yards per pop and also has 24 receptions. Have to figure the Patriots' emphasis on defense will be containing him. Who knows, maybe they'll even have some help from another Boston athlete. Rajon Rondo may have a budding vendetta against Kim Kardashian's exes, and he does have a couple of days off all of a sudden. Bet he'd make a heck of a free safety.

2. The unsung Patriots offensive player of the week: For all of the legitimate star-caliber talent on the Patriots offense, it's pretty remarkable how at least one of the perceived secondary or role players makes a significant contribution every week. Against the Jets, it was Shane Vereen with the 83-yard catch-and-humiliate-Bart Scott. Danny Woodhead had a couple of touchdowns against the Bills in Week 10. Julian Edelman has been everywhere lately. Based on how the season has played out, you have to figure one of them will be utilized to productive effect by Josh McDaniels Sunday. The money here is on Woodhead.

3. Justin Francis and Trevor Scott: With Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Chandler Jones expected to miss his second straight game with an ankle injury and Jermaine Cunningham beginning his four-game suspension for violated the league's performance-enhancing drug policy, the Patriots will require meaningful contributions from the lower tiers of the depth chart. Francis, an undrafted rookie free agent out of Rutgers, has impressive quickness, while Scott had 13.5 sacks in four years with the Raiders.

WHEN THE FISH WERE SQUISHED
It seems like so long ago now, and I guess it was, but the Patriots' victory at Miami in the 1985 AFC Championship Game was the biggest victory in franchise history to that point, and so improbable that it's still worth celebrating. The Dolphins had owned the Patriots at the Orange Bowl, winning 18 consecutive matchups there -- every single one -- since their first season of existence in 1966. But the Patriots, who had knocked off the Raiders and Jets on the road to get there, were ready for their moment. The defense forced six turnovers, Tony Eason stayed upright long enough to throw three touchdown passes, and Craig James, Tony Collins, and Robert Weathers ran for a combined 243 yards behind John Hannah in a redemptive 31-14 rout. The best part of this clip? There are a lot of best parts, actually, but I'll keep it to two. 1. Watching the late, beloved Mosi Tatupu plow into the end zone for the final touchdown/punctuation mark. 2. Steve Nelson, not exactly the outwardly sentimental sort even by inside linebacker standards -- think Ron Swanson -- raising his arms toward the crown and yelling, "New England, I love you!'' Good stuff.

COMPLETELY RANDOM FOOTBALL CARD
You know, now that you mention it, Yepremian did throw a football exactly the way he looks like he'd throw a football.

GRIEVANCE OF THE WEEK
You know what my grievance of the week is? That I keep having to come up with a grievance of the week. I've come to realize while trying to put together this segment each week that generally, I'm just not aggrieved when it comes to the Patriots. I mean, I suppose I could put on a concerned face about the PED suspensions, but I'd be faking it. I can't imagine being so naive to be surprised when someone who must be enormous and/or unfathomably fast to keep his high-paying, rewarding job tries to gain a chemical advantage, especially when it's easier to get away with it than it is to get caught. And grievances about the team itself? C'mon. Doesn't this look familiar? They're 3-0 in the second half, 19-0 after the midway point over the last three years, and barring catastrophe they'll enter the postseason as a Super Bowl favorite whether they have a bye or not. Don't gripe about it. Enjoy it. In a related note, I'll probably change the title of this to Unicorns, Rainbows and Ice Creams of the Week next week. Nothing wrong with a little sunshine when it's deserved, right?

THE MARINO-BLEDSOE SHOOTOUT
Though this clip from the Dolphins' 39-36 win over the Patriots in the '94 opener would be much more enjoyable if it were done in the classic NFL Film style rather than the bells-and-whistles-and-sound-effects-and-talking-heads style the NFL Network sadly is shifting toward, it's still pretty entertaining, just to watch young Drew Bledsoe alternate between trading bullets with Dan Marino and apparent barbs on the sideline with Bill Parcells. Can't help but thinking while watching this that our hopes then for what Bledsoe might become -- essentially, the next Marino, but with a title or two -- ended up being fulfilled and even exceeded not by him, but by his successor.

By the way, my top-five all-time NFL quarterbacks, acknowledging full bias toward the ones I actually saw play (sorry, Johnny U.):

1. John Elway: Incredible arm, mobile, did the most with the least talent around him. I mean, he got them to Super Bowls with Sammy Winder and Vance Johnson as his best weapons.

2. Joe Montana: If you want to flip him with Elway, I won't argue. No one was cooler under pressure.

3. Tom Brady: And he's still building the resume. One more Lombardi Trophy and he's at the top. Also, is there any doubt he's breaking Drew Brees's record of consecutive games with a TD pass. Any at all?

4. Peyton Manning: Some will have him higher. But as his Buick Verano could probably tell him, the idea of being the greatest quarterback ever takes a hit when your kid brother has won more championships.

5. Marino: Arguably the best pure passer ever. No one has ever had a quicker release. I just wish he'd stare a hole through Shannon Sharpe on the "NFL Today'' set whenever he says something stupid like he used to do to his receivers when they dropped a pass. Of course, that would require a lot of staring. Endless staring, really. Like, permanent hate-lasers.

PREDICTION, OR HAS IT BEEN MENTIONED THAT THIS IS A 'HAT AND T-SHIRT' GAME?
The suggestion that this could a "trap game" for the Patriots is easily summoned by certain faux-concerned members of the media, who love the time-killing notion of such things as ... well, trap games. But there's no way the Patriots get trapped here. Bill Belichick made it clear, with detailed conviction, of how impressed he is with what the Dolphins have done to turn their program around. It's a tough, disciplined, well-coached team, which is kind of surprising given coach Joe Philbin's utter lack of charisma and conviction during "Hard Knocks." Who knew he wasn't a natural-born performer like that old "Hard Knocks'' snack-grabbing superstar Rex Ryan? Miami is headed the right way and is positioned to be the closest thing to a challenger over the next couple of years to the Patriots' AFC East supremacy. But their time is not here yet. The Patriots will contain Bush, and Tannehill and pesky Davone Bess won't be able to sustain enough drives to stay with a Patriots offense that is averaging 37.0 points per game this season and 47.5 points over its last four. The result? The clinching of a ninth division title in 10 years. Patriots 38, Dolphins 17.

Previous game's prediction: Patriots 27, Jets 17. Final score: Patriots 49, Jets 19, Mark Sanchez's dignity 0. Season record: 8-3. Just for posterity's sake -- and posterior's sake -- here it is, one more time before the next time, because it will never get old:

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

OK, no more puns about buns, promise. But you must agree that if there's a single play that symbolizes not just the Patriots' 49-19 thrashing of the Jets Thanksgiving night but the current standing of the respective franchises ... well, you probably don't need to be told which particular play that would be.

It was the redefinition of the term "head-butt" (sorry, last one, honest), and it was part of NFL legend before the first half was complete. Unless there's a Ryan Leaf blunder I've forgotten, Mark Sanchez must be the first quarterback in NFL history to get laid out and have a fumble forced by his own lineman's backside.

Depending upon your rooting interests, it was either hilarious or humiliating, with no open field in between. I haven't confirmed on the stat sheet, but I believe Jets' guard Brandon Moore's rear end was among the Jets leading tacklers last night. It may have even been credited with a half-sack.

While the Jets are perfectly capable of making themselves look foolish, this particular shame was initiated by Vince Wilfork, who snowplowed Moore into Sanchez while the quarterback was trying to salvage a busted play. You can watch it all unfold in this clip ...

... and it's guaranteed it will make an appearance on every Football Follies DVD from now until they begin stuffing the football rather than blowing it up.

It's too bad Steve Sabol isn't with us to provide context on where it would rank among the goofiest gaffes in NFL history, but it should be noted that the most infamous blunders in league history -- Joe Pisarcik's fumble ...

... Leon Lett's various comedic brain-locks, whatever -- did not begin with head-on collision with a teammate's butt. That was comedic genius at its best. I'm putting it at No. 1 for the moment.

The truly funny thing is that in the context of trying to win a football game, that may not have been the Jets' most embarrassing moment of the night. Nick Folk's 32-yard field goal on the final play of the first half got the Jets on the scoreboard, but going for 3 when you're already down 35 points in that quarter alone is more or less an acknowledgment of surrender. As he left the field, Rex Ryan was berated by a fan dressed as a turkey. It was a toss-up as to who had more dignity at the moment.

It was all over but the halfhearted chanting for Tim Tebow by then, the Patriots having given us Doug Williams flashbacks by dropping 35 points on the Jets during the second frame. The Patriots scored four touchdowns in six minutes, and three within a span of 52 seconds, including an 83-yard sprint down the sideline by Shane Vereen, a 32-yard fumble recovery for a score by Steve Gregory (who had a Patrick Chung-against-the-Dolphins kind of night, with an interception and two fumble recoveries), and a Julian Edelman 22-yard scoring return on a fumble recovery.

It was a staggering display of force and firepower even by the standards of the 8-3 Patriots, who scored 108 points in two games over five days. The victory was the 200th of Belichick's career -- his first came in Week 2 of the 1991 season, a 20-0 win for his Browns over the Patriots in which New England quarterback Tommy Hodson threw for all of 95 yards. I don't think it's a leap in logic to suggest that Belichick wouldn't have minded dropping 200 points on the Jets in a symmetric celebration of the milestone and the current state of the franchises.

The Jets are such a clown-show -- Tebow would be totally justified in reminding the other 52 players in green and white that they're pretty terrible too -- that it's tough to use them as a measuring stick. But even those among us who are reluctant to express enthusiasm for whatever reason must admit it's beginning to look a lot like last year around here, when the Patriots ran the table in the second half en route to a trip to Indianapolis.

In fact, it's looking better than last year. Start with the defense, which may well have repaired its most obvious flaw -- pass defense -- with the acquisition of Aqib Talib and the emergence of Alfonzo Dennard. And even if there are still tweaks to make, it at least has proven remarkably opportunistic, with an AFC-leading 32 takeaways. This is a young group, it hits hard and relentlessly (Brandon Spikes has risen into a force), and you have to like the direction in which it is trending.

Offensively, each new week seems to bring a reminder of the depth of their personnel, and how Josh McDaniels is utilizing players depending upon matchups. One game, it's Danny Woodhead stepping up with a couple of scores. The next, it's Julian Edelman, or Vereen, or both. Stevan Ridley (97 yards) is the best back they've had since Corey Dillon.

Aaron Hernandez returned and looked healthy, and as a blocker, Daniel Fells filled in ably for Rob Gronkowski, who probably spent Thanksgiving chasing around his brothers and trying to bash them with the cast on his left arm. He's missed, but he wasn't missed, at least in his first week of absence.

Brady (323 yards, three passing touchdowns, one more on the ground) was brilliant, his default mode. He has not thrown an interception since Week 6 against Seattle, with 14 touchdowns since. Yeah, we can probably table that who-is-his-successor? silliness for now.

All in all, it was a fulfilling victory in all phases, such a thorough dismantling that the most creatively challenged sports talk show hosts surely were calling for the backup extra point unit before halftime.

Taking out the starters to protect their health? Now that's a rich team problem.

I guess it's a much easier concern to live with than worrying about the next time your quarterback will be decked by his own lineman's hindquarters.

@GlobeChadFinn

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Welcome to the 11th installment of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-but-lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots' weekly matchup that runs right here every Friday at noon ... except for when it runs the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. This week, the 7-3 Gronk-less Patriots host Richard Todd Browning Nagle Glenn Foley Ray Lucas Mark Sanchez and those annual AFC leaders in melodrama, the New York Jets. Let's get to the details.

THREE PLAYERS I'LL BE WATCHING OTHER THAN TOM BRADY
1. Aqib Talib: Yeah, he was minus-1 in his debut against the Colts -- gave up two touchdowns, and returned an interception for a score. In context, though, I was very impressed. He hadn't played a meaningful game in more than a month, he had great coverage on the first TD he allowed (just a perfect throw from Andrew Luck), and his presence freed up Devin McCourty to roam the field as a safety. Really interested to see what he does in Game 2.

2. The committee to replace Gronk: Small consolation, I know, but there may not be another team in the NFL more suited to temporarily replacing such an integral player than the Patriots are with Gronk. Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd and Wes Welker will all be even more prominent in the passing game. Daniel Fells and/or Michael Hoomanawanui will take on his blocking duties. Visanthe Shiancoe (18 touchdowns in 2007-08 with the Vikings) will be the red-zone threat. Of course Gronkowski will be missed -- he really does already rate among the greatest at his position in NFL history, with 36 touchdowns in 42 regular-season games. But his absence can be overcome because of the Patriots' uncommon quality of depth.

3. Tim Tebow: Well, if offensive mastermind Tony Sparano doesn't find a way to utilize the NFL's version of the spork -- semi-useful in two different ways! -- in this season-in-the-balance matchup with their chief rival ... oh, never mind, who am I kidding. Tebow is the most hyped roster afterthought in sports history, and if they use him for anything beyond one trick play, it's too much. It's just that the one trick play, destined to end in disaster for the Jets, will be more interesting than what most of the other 52 Jets are capable of mustering, at least on the field.

ONE PLAYER WE WERE WATCHING WHEN TOM BRADY DEBUTED
I don't know if it's symmetry, coincidence, irony, or just one of those goofy random things that happen. Hell, probably this is a reach to connect some dots. But it is kind of cool that Charlie Batch, who was the best quarterback on the field when rookie Tom Brady made his NFL debut, will be making a rare start (just his eighth since 2001) during a week in which Brady is again playing on the holiday.

Now that I read it again, that connection definitely is a reach. But it does provide us a segue into the details of a notable day in Patriots history, even if it hardly felt notable at time.

The date was November 23, 2000, Brady's rookie season, Bill Belichick's first as coach, and one of recovery and transition for the Patriots, who were beginning to dig out from the pathetic drafting and salary-cap mismanagement from the Bobby Grier/Pete Carroll era. Their problems were never more evident than on that thanks-for-nothing Thanksgiving, when the Lions dropped the Patriots to 3-9 with a 34-9 pasting. Drew Bledsoe, playing with an injured thumb, threw a pair of interceptions that were returned for touchdowns. Batch, then just 46 years old and having finally beaten out Greg Landry for the starting job, at least as I recall, had his way with the Patriots defense, completing 16 of 24 passes for 197 yards and a touchdown while running for another score.

It was embarrassing, as emphasized by the headline on the Patriots notebook in the Globe the next day: Sickening Losses Are Getting Harder To Stomach. But there was hope to be found, though we didn't have a clue then. Down in the last segment of notes in that same column was a single line about the rookie quarterback who relieved Bledsoe long after it was out of hand:

Tom Brady, who attended Michigan, was the quarterback for the Patriots' final series, completing 1 of 3 attempts for 6 yards.

If you knew his first completion was to Rod Rutledge, well, you either have an extraordinary memory for Patriots trivia, watched the clip above, or you're Rod Rutledge. But perhaps you don't recall the circumstances of why Brady, whose hagiographic lore reminds us that he was a fourth stringer as a rookie, got into the game. Backup John Friesz was injured, and Michael Bishop was in the midst of a controversy because it was whispered that he didn't know the playbook. In fact, leading up to game day, there was a possibility that because of Bledsoe's thumb injury, Brady would actually start. Here's what he told Nick Cafardo the day before about the possibility:

"[Bledsoe] goes out and gives it all he's got every game," Brady said. "It can be tough gripping the ball, especially as the weather gets colder. He will play as long and as hard as he can. It's obvious he wants to be out there because he could have turned it in a long time ago. He has the respect of his teammates and that is important because everyone gets hurt out there."

Everyone gets hurt out there. Little did any of us know another Bledsoe injury less than a year later would lead to that first Brady start and a sea change in Patriots history.

COMPLETELY RANDOM FOOTBALL CARD
Man, for an All-Pro he sure does look contemplative, even forlorn. It's as if his AFC-leading 107 points and the 22 field goals he made during that '78 season have been booted to the deep recesses of his mind, and he's tormented, again, by one he missed.

It occurred in the final seconds of the Patriots' 19-17 victory over the Jets on November 19, 1978. Surely you've seen the replay through the years -- it's the one in which Patriots linebacker Steve Nelson whispered words of, um, wisdom to Leahy as the kicker crumpled in disappointment.

Here's how Will McDonough wrote it up in the next's day's Globe:

"I don't want to say what I said to him," said Nelson, the Patriots' defensive captain, avoiding comment on his "talk" with Jets kicker Pat Leahy seconds after Leahy missed the field goal that would have beaten the Patriots ...

"I shouldn't have said what I said to him," said Nelson. "Sometimes you become irrational out there, and that was one of them."

After he missed the kick, Leahy slumped to both knees in obvious mental anguish. Nelson walked over, put his hands on Leahy's shoulder pads, and was obviously delivering some kind of message.

"I didn't hear what he said," Leahy said later. "I was thinking about what happened on the kick. I wasn't paying attention to him."

"I think Nellie just told him he was glad he missed," said linebacker Steve King, with a wink.

You bet I looked for that video. Anyone with superior internet sleuthing skills to mine who can find it -- and who has a similar lack of sympathy for the lonesome kicker -- is saluted in advance for sending it along.

GRIEVANCE OF THE WEEK
It's a bummer Gronk won't be around the next four weeks or so, and it does strike me as tempting disaster to have a player of his magnitude on the field at all with a few minutes remaining in a blowout. But the social media, tabloid and sports radio overreaction without context in the aftermath of his injury was way over the top. I mean, it was karma? C'mon now. Aaron Schatz wrote a tremendous piece on Deadspin explaining why star players are still on the field when the outcome is settled, noting that Robert Griffin III and Drew Brees were among those who remained in the game with a huge lead just the past Sunday. Everyone does it, in part because they don't want status issues in the locker room, in part because the depth chart doesn't allow for everyone to be replaced, and it part because football players want to play football no matter the score. The reasoning was explained and supported by the likes of Matt Chatham, Tedy Bruschi, Ron Jaworski, and Bill Parcells among others this week. It stinks that Gronk got hurt when the game was out of reach. But those who know the game best aren't caterwauling about it. We shouldn't either.

PREDICTION, OR WHY REX RYAN ACTUALLY DESERVES RESPECT. NO, REALLY.
The common perception of the Jets coach around here is that he's one part sweater vest, one part caricature, and many parts foot-in-his-mouth buffoon. And there's some accuracy in all of that. But he's also a heck of a defensive coach, one who dials up some pretty effective defenses against Brady from time to time, and the Jets would be making a mistake to fire him after this season. They don't have a quarterback who deserves to start. They don't have a running back worth featuring. Their offensive coordinator is a fist-pumping goof. But they do have a good head coach, and he'll help his team keep it closer than it should be against a Patriots squad on three days' rest. Take the hard-earned win, eat some late-night turkey, and let the tryptophan do its thing. Patriots 27, Jets 17.

(Previous game's prediction: Patriots 37, Colts 24. Final score: Patriots 59, Colts 24. Season record: 7-3. Well, I got the Colts score on the nose. Never thought that putting the Patriots down for 37 points would come up 22 short.)

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

FOXBOROUGH -- There's no satisfaction found behind this keyboard from writing discouraging words at the conclusion of an encouraging day. It's just that after the Patriots' 59-24 victory over Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts Sunday -- a show of force usually reserved for teams coached by Jeff Fisher -- an unexpected addendum arrived that put a damper on the optimism, at least temporarily.

If you checked out last night before the news came down, I presume your breakfast suddenly lost all flavor when you read the news. Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots' ferocious, record-setting, official-terrifying, irresistibly likable third-year tight end, suffered a broken forearm while blocking on the Patriots' final extra-point attempt of their 59-24 victory over the Colts. He will have surgery Monday and is expected to be out 4-6 weeks. That the essential Gronkowski was injured turning a 34-point lead into a 35-point lead with all of 3 minutes and 55 seconds remaining should provide plenty of ammo to those who wonder why the starters play so late into a blowout.

The time of the injury is irrelevant compared to the crucial question -- exactly how much time will he miss? The Patriots have been relatively fortunate with injuries this season. It may not feel that way given their extensive weekly injury reports, but it's true. Logan Mankins has been banged up, and Aaron Hernandez has played just four games, and there are scattered other injury-related absences every weekend. But it's selfish to gripe when the Texans have lost Brian Cushing, and Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's arm is in a sling, and the Jets are stranded without Darrelle Revis, and the Ravens must play on without LaDarius Webb and Ray Lewis. Perhaps the greatest frustration of watching the NFL is how quickly one injury can alter a team's fortunes, but it happens. It happened, to some still immeasurable degree, to the Patriots Sunday.

If Gronkowski is out for a month, well, the Patriots will survive just fine, because that's what they do.They have an incredible ability, one both admirable and impersonal, to plug in the next player, rally around him, and move on when a teammate falls. Such an approach made Matt Cassel a very rich man. Hernandez is expected back for Thursday's matchup with the Jets, and that tight end depth they've carried all season now looks like accidental foresight. Visanthe Shiancoe, step right up. It's your opportunity to seize.

But playing at the same level without Gronkowski is going to be so tough, and wouldn't it be nice to see their entire offensive arsenal intact at least once this season? Those hopes of running the table into the postseason probably are no longer realistic with road games at the Jets and Dolphins and home heavyweight bouts against the Texans and Niners due up over the next four weeks. The possibility of a bye seems less. Six weeks? That takes him through the rest of the regular season.

It's telling, both regarding his toughness and my willful obliviousness, that the first question that came to mind when I heard a few minutes after the leaving the Patriots locker room for the press box was: "Can he play with it?" Hey, if anyone can play tight end with an arm encased in plaster, it's Gronk, right? He'd still be able to spike, too. He's gonna be OK! I believe that's what's known as denial.

We learned last year that while Gronkowski may be Superman on the field, leaping for footballs and stampeding defensive backs in a single bound, he's not actually made of steel. The high-ankle sprain he suffered during the AFC Championship game altered the eventual outcome of the Super Bowl; I will always believe there's no way they lose that game if he's even a reasonable facsimile of the force who had 90 catches for 1,327 yards and 17 touchdowns last season. And after that injury, he actually returned to the game -- probably not the best move in retrospect -- and was walking around barefoot in the locker room afterward, albeit with an ankle the size of a regulation softball. Sunday, tellingly, there was no sign of him.

For all of the encouraging performances and outcomes Sunday -- the Patriots teaching the upstart Colts about the difference between contending at 6-3 and pretending at 6-3, Aqib Talib's 59-yard interception return that required about 120 yards of running when his east-west moves were calculated, Julian Edelman's electrifying 222 all-purpose yards -- Gronkowski's 7-catch, 137-yard, 2-touchdown effort might have been the best.

I won't go so far as to say it was one of the best games of his career, because there are a lot of candidates 42 regular-season games into this thing, but I'll hear your argument if you want to make the case. I'll say this: He looked as healthy as he has all season, as healthy as he has since late in the third quarter against the Ravens last January.

And Gronkowski at the height of his powers enhances everything else within the Patriots offense, as Brady explained during his postgame press conference. (Wonder if he was aware of the injury at that point.) On the drive that culminated with his first TD reception, Gronkowski had three catches -- one beating a cornerback, one beating a safety, and one beating a tight end.

"They try,'' Brady responded when asked why defenses don't put more of an emphasis of stopping Gronkowski at all costs. "It's definitely something they try. It's just hard because, OK, do you want to blitz, do you not want to blitz? When you're a tight end, you're really on the inside part of the field. You can run basically wherever you want. It's not like you're an outside receiver, where your route has to complement other people's routes. As a tight end, you go right, left, deep, short, you really do whatever you want. And the more you put on him, the less are on Wes, the less guys are rushing, the less on Brandon, Julian. That's why it's team football.''

It's team football, but it was a hell of an individual performance Sunday. Gronkowski literally caught everything thrown his way, hauling in his seven passes on seven targets, and he achieved a couple of milestones that reminded us that Canton is inevitable barring injury more serious than a busted forearm.

He became the third tight end in NFL history -- joining Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez, which is as exclusive as contemporary company at the position gets -- to have 10 or more touchdowns in three straight seasons. But Gronk also stands higher than they do, for he is the only one to do it in his first three seasons.

The two touchdowns -- a 4-yarder in the first quarter and 24-yarder in the third to make it 38-17 -- gave him 37 for his career. That's one shy of John Mackey's career total, two fewer than Mark Bavaro (and nine more than Bavaro had as a Giant), and just seven fewer than Kellen Winslow (not his brief teammate this season, his dad).

Sunday's two scores allowed Gronkowski to tie and surpass be-goggled Chargers flash John Jefferson for the third-most receiving touchdowns by a player in his first three seasons. Randy Moss -- the record-holder at 43 and Gronk's former teammate for a brief time -- might have been in sight if not for the injury.

Now, for the foreseeable future, no records are in danger; Gronkowski will be out of sight. It's team football, as the quarterback reminds us, and others will step up -- Wes Welker, of course, and maybe Lloyd, and Stevan Ridley in the running game. But it won't be as easy or much fun without Gronk, that supremely talented individual, the touchdown machine whose one flaw apparently is that he's not unbreakable.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Welcome to the 10th installment of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-but-lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots' weekly matchup that runs right here every Friday at noon. This week, the 6-3 Patriots host Johnny Unitas Bert Jones Art Schlichter Peyton Manning Andrew Luck and the upstart Indianpolis Colts, also 6-3. Let's get to the details.

THREE PLAYERS OTHER THAN TOM BRADY AND ANDREW LUCK I'LL BE WATCHING
Aqib Talib: He has the talent to be an above-average cornerback and plays a physical style that should mesh with what the Patriots' scheme asks him to do. Sunday won't be an easy first test, especially if he's lined up opposite Reggie Wayne for much of the day, but there's a very reasonable chance he can be a significant factor in correcting the Patriots' single glaring weakness. Can't wait to start finding out the answers.

Reggie Wayne: It's been said and written this week that the Colts are using the great veteran receiver Wayne in similar manner to how the Steelers used to utilize Hines Ward. I'll presume that refers to Wayne's tremendous season catching the ball -- he has 69 receptions and needs 69 yards Sunday for his eighth 1,000-yard season -- and not some new Ward-like habit of lunging for some unsuspecting linebacker's knees. I'm not one who is particularly down on Brandon Lloyd, but man, can you imagine what the Patriots offense would be accomplishing if Wayne had signed here as a free agent?

Stevan Ridley: I feel like he's one of the three players slotted here just about every week -- come to think of it, he may alternate the spot with Devin McCourty. But that just goes to show, I think, the significance of the second-year back to the Patriots offense. Ridley is fifth in the NFL and second in the AFC in rushing yards (814, trailing only Houston's Arian Foster in the conference). He averaged 4.7 yards per attempt, and he has played a crucial role in bringing balance to the offense -- the Patriots are actually higher in the rushing yardage rankings (fifth) than they are in passing (seventh). Against Indianapolis's 22d-ranked run defense, Ridley could be poised for another fine day.

"I'M LIVIN' TO SEE TWO MORE DAUGHTERS GET MARRIED, DANCE AT THEIR WEDDINGS''
If you're reading this column, most likely you're a Patriots fan, and it would be absurd to suggest you root for their opponent any given week. I'm not about to do that. But after watching Chuck Pagano, the first-year head coach who is on leave while being treated for leukemia (he is now in remission), speak to his team after the Colts' 23-20 victory over the Dolphins two weeks ago ... well, I'm trying here, but nothing I can write is going to even approach the genuine emotion of the moment, so evident in the ailing coach's eyes. Let's just say Pagano is a very easy man to root for, and that will continue beyond that wonderful day when he returns to the sideline in full health.

COMPLETELY RANDOM FOOTBALL CARD
I sort of joked in the intro about the interesting history of Colts quarterbacks, and while they have had their share of all-time greats (not so fast, Mike Pagel), there's one who could have joined Unitas and Manning as a Canton-bronzed legend if only he'd been able to stay healthy.

If you were a child of the '70s, you remember the exceptional Bert Jones, the rifle-armed and mobile quarterback from LSU who won the 1976 Most Valuable Player award at age 25 but who suffered a career-altering shoulder injury. He was everything you wanted Steve Grogan to be. During that '76 season, he led the Colts to an 11-3 record -- same as the awesome '76 Patriots, with whom they split a pair of games -- by throwing for a league-leading 3,104 yards and 24 touchdowns. He also ran for 321 yards and another three scores.

Brief video interlude:

End of brief video interlude.

So how good was Jones, and how good could he have been? Consider this: On the Friday before Super Bowl XLII, Bill Belichick was asked about the greatest passers he had ever seen. After naming Tom Brady and some more decorated players, Belichick said this:

"As a pure passer I don't think I could put anybody ahead of Bert Jones. I know he had a short career and the shoulder injury, but when I was there and he was just starting his career, the success that he had and his ability to throw the ball as a pure passer and as an athlete, it would be hard to put anybody ahead of Bert Jones at that point in time."

AND WHILE WE'RE ON THE SUBJECT OF THOUGHTFUL BELICHICK ANSWERS ...
... I loved this response from the Patriots coach Friday morning when he was asked whether Adam Vinatieri, the brilliant former Patriots kicker who returns with the Colts Sunday, should join Jan Stenerud as the lone kickers in the Hall of Fame:

He’s certainly one of the greatest kickers I’ve ever seen since I’ve been in the league [Belichick began coaching with the '75 Colts]. The longevity, the production, the performance in championships and big games, I mean, what more could he do? What more could he do? Go out there and play wide receiver and catch a bunch of passes? I don’t know. Is that what he needs to do? I don’t know, what more could he do? I don’t know what more [former Giants punter] Dave Jennings could have done at his position, or Ray Guy, or guys like that. What else would they have had to do? Get a bunch of interceptions? We don’t judge quarterbacks on their rushing yardage, we don’t judge them on how many tackles they made, I don’t even know if we judge them on how many games they win. We judge them on a lot of their quarterback rating and stats, and running backs on rushing yardage. I don’t know, what’s a guy have to do if he excels at his position? Is that good enough? I don’t know. Like I said, you’d have to ask somebody that knows a lot more about it than I do, because I don’t understand what the criteria is.”

By my quick count, that's four "I don't knows" and an "I don't even know" from Belichick. But every other word in that answer tells you that he absolutely knows, you know? There's no doubt that Vinatieri, who has two Super Bowl winning kicks and neither of them is his most impressive, belongs in Canton someday.

It's still strange seeing Vinatieri in that Colts uniform -- it's sort of like seeing Carlton Fisk come to town with the White Sox, though Vinatieri needs three more years in Indy to match his longevity here. But it will not be strange at all to see him making a speech in that mustard-colored jacket someday.

PREDICTION, SPONSORED THIS WEEK BY THE GRIEVANCE OF THE WEEK
It's going to be a blast to get a chance to watch Luck and Brady duel, and don't doubt for a second that the Patriots' quarterback will find an extra kernel or two of motivation by showing the young fella how it's done. But I'll also be glad when it's over, because the Manning-to-Luck happy accident of succession led to way too much verbal hand-wringing this week about how the Patriots will replace Brady when the time comes. (And yes, I was guilty of it too on Boston Sports Live. Excuse: I don't pick the topics. You know I'd have rather done 20 minutes on the Marlins-Jays trade.) Brady has a shot at hitting 3,000 yards on the season Sunday. He's thrown 18 touchdowns to three interceptions. Yes, he's 35, and he can't play forever. But barring another catastrophic run-in with Bernard Pollard, the day of reckoning is seasons away. Tom Brady will be the best quarterback on the field Sunday, and the Patriots will win, just as the story usually goes. Patriots 37, Colts 24.

(Previous game's prediction: Patriots 45, Bills 21. Final score: Patriots 37, Bills 31. Season record: 6-3. You know, I should probably pick against the Patriots one of these weeks. But I probably won't. For whatever their flaws happen to be, I still genuinely believe they will win each week.)

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Hello, friends. What? That's taken as a go-to intro already? Ah, I'm sure Jim Nantz won't mind, especially since CBS's signature play-by-play voice took more than a few minutes this week to discuss Sunday's Patriots-Colts matchup, which he will call alongside Phil Simms. It's the fifth time CBS's top NFL broadcasting tandem will call a Patriots game this season, and the third time in New England's last four games. They've seen the Patriots dozens of times over the years, and let's just say Nantz thinks any discussion about finding a successor to Brady -- a popular topic around here this week -- is way too premature.

1. It's still jarring watching the Colts and not seeing Peyton Manning under center. How much of a chance have you had to see Andrew Luck?

Nantz: “We did one game, and it was probably their worst performance of the year. It was against the Jets, and they got thumped. For whatever reason that day it just didn’t come together. Chalk it up to a youthful team that when things go sideways they may not always have the solution to correct it. That was one of their poorer performances of the season. Still, though, in the meetings we had with the Colts before the game, and getting to the stadium early and watching warm-ups, and having time to spend with Andrew, you can see it. You can see there’s a whole lot there. It’s a pretty amazing and quick transformation for a team that pretty much jettisoned everybody and put a whole new roster together, Reggie Wayne and a few others excluded. It’s amazing on paper that they’re 6-3, but I’ve gotta say, when you watch the film and even when you see them on the field on a bad day like the day that we saw them, you can tell that there really is a lot there.’’

2. There has to be some envy around the league when it comes to the Colts, who have Manning for 14 years, have one awful season when he's hurt, and have the good fortune of hitting the jackpot with Luck. Especially given how crucial quality play is from that position.

Nantz: “This is a true testament to how important the quarterback position is in the National Football League. It’s a true eye-opener here as to how important it is to have a franchise quarterback. There aren’t 32 of them to go around. That’s the problem. You’re lucky if you can sit down and really say there are 10 in the league that I would entrust to build my franchise around for the next 10 years. I was doing a radio tour Tuesday and I got a question about whether Brady was getting some age on him. People are starting to feel like, ‘Hey, the window must be closing. Like I said, we see the Patriots about every other week, and I don’t see it at all. Tom’s always said he wants to play for a long, long time, and I think he will. There’s no slowing down. He fires it in there like he did 10 years ago. Even though I know the birth certificate says he’s a certain age, the way he’s taken care of himself, he’s got a long run to go. And then you get questions about Manning, too. Earlier in the year we had several Broncos games, four of their games overall, and we’ve transitioned from questions being asked “Is Manning ever going to make it all the way back and be the same player?’ to 'Is he the MVP.'

“I have to say that when you look at the success of the Colts and how they’ve built this back up so fast, it’s got to leave fans in cities like Jacksonville and Buffalo shaking their head and saying, “Wait a minute, we’re trying to slowly gain on this thing every year and build something sustainable, and we’re not. And we’re signing high-priced free agents like Mario Williams. How does this happen? We’ve got the same record we had the year before, the year before, and the year before that. Indianapolis blows up in one year, comes in gets, Luck, and wow, they’re 6-3 and making a playoff run again. It really gets down to the quarterback, again, though there are other factors, none as important as a franchise quarterback.’’

3. Sports radio being what it is, the Manning/Luck thing has made discussing the Tom Brady succession plan a popular topic up here. Is that something even worth considering at this point?

Nantz: “I don’t think they need to worry about that right now. I really don’t think that’s anything of a concern right now. Who knows, maybe Ryan Mallett develops, but I don’t see this as two or three years in the offing, by any means. Yeah, one day, that franchise is going to face an important crossroads – yeah, what do we do now at quarterback? – but that day is a long way away. I don’t even want to add to the speculation. That is not something right now that’s a big priority for them.

4. Can you maybe call a couple of programs up here and share that point of view?

Nantz: [Laughs.] "People are just playing the numbers. Playing the age numbers. Because I look at his numbers and I see 18 touchdowns against three interceptions. A 6-1 ratio. I’m looking at the Patriots putting 30 points on the board every week and there is my mind no concern with their quarterback position this year, next year, or the year after that. Probably several years beyond."

5. At this point a season ago, the Patriots had the same record and the same most obvious flaw -- an inconsistent-at-best pass defense. They ended up winning the rest of their games until the Super Bowl. Is this team capable of a similar run?

Nantz: “I don’t think there’s any question they’re capable of it. There’s that two-week stretch that everyone knows coming up in December. San Francisco and Houston back to back. But they get them at home, and the schedule other than those two – and that’s a big 'other' –it’s an extremely favorable schedule, and you’re looking at a team that has three losses by four points, and while I can hear Belichick saying “We are what our record says we are,’’ this team right now could be 9-0. And it’s not like somebody really whipped ‘em. I know there have probably been some nailbiters the fan base isn’t accustomed to, like this past weekend, but that’s the NFL. That’s the NFL. If the Patriots end up cranking out wins the rest of the year and go 13-3 or 12-4, there’s not going to be anything wrong with that."

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

FOXBOROUGH -- The Patriots will tell you, time and again and to a man, that a "W is a W," the implication being that a haphazard route is easier to endure if victory proves to be destination.

They repeat a "W is a W'' or a slight variation so often -- from their iconic quarterback to diminutive running back who scored Sunday on the ground and in the air to the the maligned cornerback/safety who secured their latest win -- that it's a mild upset that the phrase doesn't hang among the inspirational phrases that adorn signs on the walls along the hallway from the Patriots locker room to the field.

(There is, however, a quote from Lou Holtz. Surprisingly, it does not reference his 3-10 record with the '76 Jets.)

The chief reason why they say it so often is obvious on the surface -- it's because they win so often, especially against the Buffalo Bills, who are essentially a mental W for Patriots fans, if not the laser-focused, count-no-victory-before-it-has-hatched players, the day the schedule is released.

What's left unsaid, or only surreptitiously hinted at, is that a W won't always be the result if the Patriots can't find a way to mask their fundamental flaws against teams more capable of exposing them than the perennially irrelevant Bills.

The Patriots' 37-31 victory Sunday was their 12th straight at home and 23d in the teams' last 25 meetings over Buffalo. The Bills' longest-tenured employees must look at Tom Brady the way the Washington Generals did Meadowlark Lemon.

While countless statistics reaffirm and reaffirm again how much the Patriots dominate the Bills -- this is the 10th time in 12 years they've swept the season series -- the truth is that they did not dominate this particular game.

At times it felt as if they were in complete command, such as when they build leads of 17-3 (on a Danny Woodhead 15-yard touchdown run in the second quarter), 24-10 (Rob Gronkowski 1-yard scoring reception with just under 4 minutes remaining in the first half, sadly unaccompanied by a stateside Little Nutcracker Dude Who Guards The House celebration) and even 31-17 (Woodhead, 18-yard catch-and-run midway through the third quarter, and how terrific has he been used in appropriate moderation?)

The Patriots had a run of 11 straight scoring drives against the Bills, dating to their 52-28 rout in Week 3, snapped on a two-play, 31-second, let's-get-to-the-locker-room-already possession at the end of the first half.

If it didn't quite feel like a rout in the making, it never felt particularly close, either.

Yet there the Patriots were in the final moments, staring down potential defeat, clinging to a 37-31 lead, the football in Ryan Fitzpatrick's hands with 28 seconds remaining and the end zone 15 yards away. The former Harvard star has a history of throwing crushing late-game interceptions, having done so with less than three minutes remaining in a 38-30 Patriots win here two years ago, and he could not help but oblige again Sunday, throwing a strike to a perfectly positioned Devin McCourty to halt any hopes the Bills had of departing with a rare W.

The Patriots gave up 481 yards to the Bills. Hey, at least it wasn't 496.

"We are not disappointed at all about winning the ballgame,'' said Patriots defensive lineman Vince Wilfork, who forced a fumble leading to the first Patriots touchdown, one of three Buffalo turnovers, "but there are some things that we have to do better and there are some things we did well out there, but at the same time, the main goal is to win, and we did."

The W is a W, and maybe the Patriots can continue to live dangerously. In some regard, the escape against the Bills that pushes their record to 6-3, as it was through nine games a second ago, feels like it balances out one of the losses -- to Seattle, Baltimore, and most regrettably with hindsight, Arizona -- in which they couldn't close.

While Deion Branch ("Kudos and thanks to our defense, man -- they did a great job of saving us") was among the Patriots to credit the save to McCourty and friends, the reality is that save for the three turnovers and some well-timed big hits, it was again the defense that allowed the opposition to stay with the Patriots' prodigious offense, which may be the deepest and most balanced unit of the Brady era.

Unfortunately, the Bills offense was made to look as effective and explosive as the Patriots offense, and can you imagine the numbers Brady would put up if he got to face the likes of Kyle Arrington and Steve Gregory on a Sunday?

Fitzpatrick threw for 337 yards while Fred Jackson and the dynamic C.J. Spiller combined for 150 on the ground. Missed tackles were an epidemic -- McCourty and Jerod Mayo, two usually dependable hitters, were particularly guilty -- and the Bills picked up double-digit chunks of yardage over the middle of the field almost at will. Let's just say any notion that repairs were made to the pass defense during the bye week were disproved quickly and repeatedly.

"Everyone has different problems on their teams, offensively, defensively, and [we] just have to keep working and improving things each week,'' McCourty said.

The question that lingers heading into next week's matchup against Andrew Luck and the Colts is whether there's really been any improvement at all. A W is a W, sure, and McCourty made the big play at the end, and the defense was opportunistic, and Brandon Spikes got into Fitzpatrick's head after nearly knocking it off, and still, there's no way around the fact that in the final minute the Bills had a chance to steal a game that should have been settled so much sooner.

There are recent times in which the Patriots have prevailed in such a situation -- last year's victory in the AFC Championship over the Ravens being the most notable, with Sterling Moore's brilliant play on Lee Evans saving the day.

But it is impossible not to watch a team driving down the field in a quest for a winning touchdown in the final moments and not think of the two Super Bowl opportunities lost because the game was 60 minutes long rather than 59.

"I think that shows the true characteristics of a team when you're in a close battle you have to fight down in the fourth quarter with two minutes to go and you have to win,'' said McCourty, and he's right. But you also wonder why they can't make it easier on themselves, that the 45-7 victory over the Rams two weeks ago was a harbinger that they were about to put it all together and take a whole lot of unnecessary suspense and degree of difficulty out of their victories.

This defense should be better. The quality runs deeper than seven players at defensive line and linebacker -- even Justin Francis and Jermaine Cunningham are contributing -- and the defensive backfield has better talent than it did at this point a season ago, when the Patriots were also 6-3 and one game into a 10-game winning streak that would carry them to Indianapolis.

Perhaps Aqib Talib will stay out of trouble and help and they'll solve it to the degree they did a season ago, when it was the offense as much the defense that let them down in the end. This season's Patriots offense is awesome in its balance, the running game (fifth in the NFL) actually ranking higher than the passing game (seventh) for the No. 1 overall offense.

If they can just correct that very real flaw in the pass defense, the Patriots can win the Super Bowl this season. They can claim that elusive fourth Lombardi Trophy, put Bill Belichick on that four-time-winners podium alongside Chuck Noll and allow Tom Brady to shake Troy Aikman and join Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana as the QB with the most rings as a starter.

This team is better than the one that was a play or two short last February, and even on the occasional frustrating Sunday, we should never lose sight of how remarkable this run has been, in this modern NFL structured toward the the Land of 8-8 that Pete Rozelle desired and the Cloudy-Eyed Land of 9-9 that Roger Goodell dreams of.

"I'll take any win,'' Bill Belichick said Sunday. "I'll take any win."

Because -- say it with me, say it with them -- a W is a W. Even if they must fix that maddening habit of allowing some to teeter unnecessarily close to being an L.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Welcome to the ninth installment of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-but-lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots' weekly matchup that runs right here every Friday at noon.

This Sunday, the 5-3 Patriots come off their bye week by hosting the 3-5 Bills, who put a scare into them in Week 4 before the Patriots offense went into unstoppable mode in the second half en route to a 52-28 rout. Despite the addition of Mario Williams (thus far an underachiever) and the emergence of C.J. Spiller, Buffalo seems destined to plod toward another season of mediocrity. Meanwhile, the Patriots will take their first step in their attempt to match what they accomplished last season, winning their final eight regular-season games after a 5-3 start to cruise into the playoffs. It would be stunning if this isn't their first victory of the second half. Let's dig in to the rest of the preview.

THREE PLAYERS OTHER THAN TOM BRADY I'LL BE WATCHING
1. Devin McCourty: With the acquisition of talented, troubled cornerback Aqib Talib from the Buccaneers, it seems all but certain that McCourty, a solid tackler who inexplicably lost the instincts he showed as a rookie when it comes to playing the ball in the air, will make the switch from cornerback to safety. But Talib's debut is delayed by a week because of his four-game ban for violating the league's performance-enhancing drugs policy, so it's worth keeping an eye on whether McCourty has what could be his farewell performance at cornerback against Stevie Johnson (who is hampered by a thigh injury) and the Bills' receivers.

2. C.J. Spiller: The Bills' explosive third-year running back is averaging 7.2 yards per carry, and while that might suggest coach Chan Gailey is utilizing him just right, the argument can be made that he doesn't get the ball enough. Spiller hasn't had more than 15 carries in any game this season, the high coming in Week 2 when he followed up a 14-carry, 169-yard performance against the Jets with 123 yards on the ground against the Chiefs. In the last three weeks, Spiller, who suffered a collarbone injury September 23 but didn't miss a game, has had just 45 total touches -- 30 carries, 15 receptions. If the Bills are going to be able to match the Patriots on the scoreboard, Spiller used more often and not in moderation.

3. Stevan Ridley: The Patriots racked up 247 yards on the ground in that first meeting with the Bills, including 106 and a pair of touchdowns by Ridley, the increasingly impressive second-year running back. He had 22 carries in the first matchup, and with Brandon Bolden, who had 16 attempts for 137 yards in that game, banged up, it will be interesting to see whether Ridley takes on more of the load or someone such as speedy Shane Vereen gets a decent chunk of carries.

COMPLETELY RANDOM FOOTBALL CARD
It's pretty amazing how both the Bills and Patriots hosed the 49ers in late-'70s trades that sent a seemingly washed-up star to San Francisco for a bushel of draft picks. The Patriots did it, as you may remember, with Jim Plunkett, the former No. 1 overall pick who during his five seasons with the Patriots took a weekly beating akin to what Michael Vick is enduring this season. Perceived as damaged goods and having lost his job to Steve Grogan, he was sent to the Niners before the 1976 Draft for three first-round picks (two in '76, one in '77), a second-rounder ('77) and backup quarterback Tom Owen. The Patriots turned those picks into Pete Brock, Tim Fox, Raymond Clayborn and Horace Ivory, while Plunkett didn't find redemption until he moved on to the Raiders.

But the Bills pulled off an even bigger heist in March 1978, trading washed-up franchise icon O.J. Simpson to his hometown Niners for five picks. With the selections, they ended up with three marginal players -- defensive ends Scott Hutchinson and Ken Johnson and receiver Danny Fulton -- but also hit the jackpot twice. Joe Cribbs, a running back chosen in the second round in '80, ran for 1,000 yards three times and in 1981 averaged 15 yards per catch out of the backfield. Another of the picks turned out to be the top choice in the 1979 draft, which the Bills used on linebacker Tom Cousineau. He did not sign with them and went to play in Canada, but they did eventually trade him to Cleveland for the pick that would net them Jim Kelly. Simpson played just two seasons in San Francisco, totaling a little more than a 1,000 yards. No idea what became of him after football.

THE LONGEST HIGHLIGHT REEL FOR A PLAYER WHO NEVER PLAYED A MEANINGFUL GAME FOR THE BUFFALO BILLS YOU WILL EVER SEE
You asked for it -- no, demanded it -- and now you've got it. Yes, it's a highlight reel of Vince Young's greatest plays as a member of the Buffalo Bills. So what if he never actually played a regular-season game for the franchise, having cut him in late August to make room for clipboard-holding specialist Tavaris Jackson. And so what if the clip is set to horrible music and includes multiple slo-mo replays to make it appear as if the former Rose Bowl hero and third overall pick in the 2006 draft had more big moments during the Bills' pursuit of the preseason championship than he actually did. Someone put together a Vince Young-as-a-Bill highlight film, and the least you can do to reward that effort is to watch the damn thing. Snickering and snark is optional.

GRIEVANCE OF THE WEEK
My grievances, like the Patriots, were also on a bye week. I'll be back to yelping about the injustices of something like a diva wide receiver next week.

PREDICTION, ALSO KNOWN AS "YOU KNOW, 52-28 AGAIN ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION, CHAN"
In the teams' first meeting in Week 4, Tom Brady led the Patriots on six consecutive touchdown drives in the second half, an extraordinary display of the potency and potential of their offense. But that's not what the players will remember -- Bill Belichick will have it drilled into their brains that Buffalo led by 14 points in the second half, and that it's imperative to play a complete game, just as they did against the Rams in the week before the bye. Buffalo's secondary is banged up, which means a big day for Brady and a busy day for the Gillette Stadium scoreboard operator. Patriots 45, Bills 21.

(Previous game's prediction: Patriots 27, Rams 16. Final score: Patriots 45, Rams 7. Season record: 5-3.)

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Tell me how the season ends, and I'll tell you if the Patriots paid too much for Aqib Talib, the talented, troubled cornerback who was acquired along with a seventh-round pick Thursday from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a fourth-rounder.
..
I know, that reads like total cop-out. But I don't think it is. Sometimes the sports media's ever-increasing emphasis on instant, polarizing reaction -- He's a shutdown corner, New Orleans here we come! Are you kidding, they've lost their moral compass! -- overwhelms all long-term thinking and common sense. And by sometimes, I mean most of the time.

The deal for Talib is a particularly glaring example. This is a situation that demands the passage of time and the application of common sense before any honest conclusion can be drawn. It's a daring trade, one that should enhance to some degree their short-term championship hopes but comes with absolutely nothing resembling a guarantee.

Talib is a 26-year-old former first-round pick who instantly becomes their best cover cornerback and who plays a physical style that should make him an immediate fit. He also instantly becomes the Patriot most likely to make the All-Police Log Team, a perception that is emphasized when you Google his name and the photo that comes with his Wikipedia bio is a mugshot that looks like J.B. Smoove's evil twin. Talib is an accomplished knucklehead.

Yeah, there's risk, though given the leadership of the Patriots, the impressive maturity and intelligence of most of their core players on defense, and that he has just eight games left on his contract probably diminishes the likelihood that he'll be a locker-room nuisance.

If he is, they can send him on the Adalius Thomas Memorial Acela train straight out of town. But the possibility of reward is tough to resist, and for now Patriots fans should be glad they didn't.

No one around here needs to be reminded that the difference between winning a Super Bowl and forever lamenting a lost opportunity can come down to one play, one interception, one deflected pass, one tackle shy of the first-down marker. Ravens will always be bitter about Sterling Moore's touchdown-saving play against Lee Evans in the AFC Championship Game. Patriots fans will never erase Mario Manningham and David Tyree from the football vaults in their minds. Those lost opportunities stay with you, even in an era of extraordinary, almost impossibly prolonged, success.

The Patriots are again in a position as one of the favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl -- and probably in better position than they were a season ago at this time, a season that ended with ... well, you know. At midseason last year, they were 5-3, having lost two straight games coming out of the bye, to the Steelers and Giants. The defensive backfield was a mess (sound familiar?), with the likes of Josh Barrett, Antwaun Molden and James Ihedigbo playing significant roles in those two defeats. Eventually, they sorted it out to some degree, with Devin McCourty moving to safety and Moore emerging into a key role, enough so that they made it to Indianapolis, where they wound up ... again, you know, just a play or two short.

Talib is a superior cornerback to anyone who was on the roster last year, and his acquisition is the first real admission of the obvious this year by the Patriots, namely that this disheveled defensive backfield is the Achilles' heel of this entire team. The offense has extraordinary balance, leading the NFL in total yardage while ranking fifth in both rushing and passing. The defense has promise, with a deep, talented front seven that should become more creative with the return of Dont'a Hightower. They may not run the table from the ninth game to the Super Bowl as they did last year, but it is not hard to envision this team winning a championship.

They've essentially admitted to their problem -- perhaps their sole legitimate problem, not their 1-percenter "problems" like figuring out to utilize Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd and Rob Gronkowski in the passing game -- by acquiring someone else's problem.

A fourth-round pick will feel like a steep price if Talib falters here. But perhaps, as the Patriots reshuffle their defensive backfield just as they did a year ago, he will prove to be that guy who makes the big play in the big moment, the ultimate difference between a fourth championship and being stuck on three for the eighth straight season.

Tell me how the season ends, and then I'll tell you whether giving up that fourth-rounder for him was the correct thing to do. But for now, I'll tell you this: I'm glad they're going to find out.

Perhaps it works, perhaps it doesn't, but bringing him in confirms beyond all doubt that the only goal right now is to win Super Bowl XLVII.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

All right, Patriots fans, whether you want one or not, it seems we've got a weekend to exhale now.

The bye week arrives at both the right time (heal up, Aaron Hernandez) and the wrong time (so much for maintaining the momentum after Sunday's 45-7 shellacking of the Rams), but either way the reality is we won't see the Patriots again until Nov. 11 when they host the Bills.

Feels like a long time from now, doesn't it? Especially after the way it all came together Sunday, with the Patriots putting together the all-around performance we've been awaiting.

The Patriots, who hit their midseason break with a 5-3 record, a first-place standing in the AFC East, a lot to be encouraged about, and much to be improved upon, will and should savor their time off. (Are we sure multi-continent cult hero Rob Gronkowski didn't stay behind in London to chill with Pippa and the little Nutcracker dudes who guard the house?) The first half has been an unexpected grind, and yet they reach the midway point with the same record they had through eight games a season ago. Last year, you might recall, they turned 5-3 into 13-3. A sequel to such a hot streak may be a lot to ask, but with the Bills, Colts and Jets the next three games on the schedule, there is a chance to seize some momentum.

That is, after the momentum-stalling break. So for those of us who watch rather than play, it's time to pay some back dues and catch up on all of those autumn duties that get neglected on autumn Sundays from 1-4 p.m. -- stacking wood, raking leaves, and apparently cleaning up post-Sandy debris in the yard. Maybe a nice trip to Bed, Bath and Beyond. At least apple-picking season has been dodged. Anyone know how the World Series is going?

The arrival of the Celtics will help us get our Boston sports fix, but even with the Patriots on their brief hiatus, they won't be far from mind. For one thing, the break at the precise midpoint allows for easy math games regarding their projected production, and there are some damn fun numbers at play with this offense in particular:

• Tom Brady is on pace for 418 completions, 4,816 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. In other words, his usual brilliance. As if that brief clip of Scott Secules during the Seattle game wasn't enough of a reminder not to take Brady for granted.


• Rob Gronkowski, despite limiting hip and back issues, is on an 86-catch, 1,160-yard, 14-TD track, which is down slightly from his transcendent 2011 season but is a career year for most wide receivers, let alone a tight end. I can't think of five players I've seen in my 30+ years of following the Patriots who have been more fun to watch.


• Though the impressive Shane Vereen may cut into his carries, Stevan Ridley is having a sensational season -- he's averaging 4.8 yards per pop and is halfway to 1,432 yards and 10 TDs. It's not Corey Dillon in 2004, but it's extremely encouraging.

The Patriots' overall numbers, at least on offense, are beyond impressive -- did I mention they're averaging 440.8 yards per game, tops in the NFL and more than 30 yards ahead of the No. 2-ranked team, the Lions? Maybe the defending AFC champions are not quite where we expected them to be after eight games -- 6-2 seemed a reasonable estimate, and that lost opportunity in Seattle does particularly sting -- but after Sunday, we're comfortable saying that they're going to be OK, and probably much, much better than OK.

The beginning did not foreshadow what was to follow. Instead, it seemed all too annoyingly familiar. Stealing a page from the best-selling Russell Wilson Heave-It-Up-And-Good-Things-Might-Happen Guide To Beating the Patriots (a clunky title to be sure, but an accurate one), Rams quarterback Sam Bradford rolled right, set himself, and heaved a 50-yard touchdown pass to Chris Givens to toast Tavon Wilson and put the Rams up, 7-0, just 2:35 into the game. I wonder how many Patriots fans saw that Givens had 270 yards on 10 catches entering the game and started him on their fantasy team, knowing he'd get his shots downfield against the Patriots' abysmal pass defense.

It's frustrating on those rare occasions when the Patriots are trailing before Brady even takes the field, and that was magnified Sunday because of the familiar way the Rams scored their first touchdown. Little did we know it would be their only touchdown, and that the many local pundits who picked the Rams would recognize their folly by halftime at the latest.

Brady and the Patriots offense, from Gronkowski (eight catches, 146 yards, two touchdowns, two classic celebrations) to Brandon Lloyd (two TDs) to Ridley (127 yards and a TD on 15 carries), would systematically dismantle Jeff Fisher's defense, scoring five touchdowns and a field goal on their first six possessions, five of which lasted at least eight plays.

On the downside, they did have their seventh three-and-out of the season late in the third quarter, though that might just have been their way of getting Zoltan Mesko involved. Facetiousness aside, it was exactly what you wanted to see in the big picture, and contained within the victory were several smaller satisfactions:

Big hits from Justin Francis and Dont'a Hightower. The guy wearing No. 32 in the opposing defensive backfield having a worse day than the guy wearing No. 32 in the Patriots' defensive backfield. The extra gear Vereen gives the offense. Some encouraging plays on the ball by Alfonzo Dennard. A lineman finally called for holding Chandler Jones. A lead big enough that you don't have to worry about letting it slip in the fourth quarter.

The Patriots' midseason condition is not perfect, of course, but it is promising. Here's hoping those concerns of the first half -- namely that 28th-ranked pass defense -- get addressed during the week off and gradually evaporate as this team plays to its potential straight through February.

But after Sunday's encouraging sendoff into the bye, the only complaint I have about this team is a mild one: Just when they're at their best, they're hit with a week of rest.

Hurry up and get here, Nov. 11. We want to see the team we saw Sunday again, just as soon as we can.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Welcome to the eighth installment of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-but-lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots' weekly matchup that runs right here every Friday at noon. This Sunday, the 4-3 Patriots travel to London to take on the 3-4 St. Louis Rams, who have become a more disciplined team under new coach Jeff Fisher. Fisher always seemed to have the Titans ready to play against the Patriots during his decade-plus in Tennessee, and his new team has accomplished something Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and Co. could not do -- they defeated Seattle, albeit at home. A win would send the Patriots into the bye week with the lead in the division. Let's get to the rest of the preview.

THREE PLAYERS OTHER THAN TOM BRADY THAT I'LL BE WATCHING
1. Sam Bradford: Despite the former No. 1 overall pick's obvious talent, the Rams have just the 24th-rated passing offense in the NFL, sandwiched between Christian Ponder and the Vikings and the Chiefs of the Matt Cassel/Brady Quinn two-headed debacle. But the Rams would be foolish to remain completely conservative against the Patriots' blundering 29th-ranked pass defense. The Rams' cast of receivers doesn't exactly provide flashbacks to the "Greatest Show on Turf'' days, but Chris Givens, who has 10 catches for 270 yards -- yes, math whizzes, that's 27.0 per catch -- should be able to get open behind the defense a time or two if given the chance.

2. Brandon Lloyd: By statistical standards, the Patriots' offense has been excellent -- it is first in the league in scoring (31 points per game) and total offense (436.1 yards per game). But to watch them from week to week is to know that they've had their battles of inconsistency, in part, I think, because of nagging injuries to Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, the latter of whom apparently hasn't made the trip to London. Lloyd had a knack for the exceptional and a habit of making rudimentary mistakes, and he's coming off a subpar game against the Jets. Playing against a former team, he should have extra motivation and focus this week, and the Patriots are going to need him to be at his best.

3. Greg Zuerlein: The Rams' thunder-footed rookie kicker is already a hit in London -- they do seem to prefer kicking to throwing or catching over there. He started the season brilliantly, hitting his first 15 field-goal attempts, and even when he misses it's exciting -- included among his three off-target kicks against the Dolphins two weeks ago was a 66-yarder. He's got the leg to make one from that far, and perhaps it will happen Sunday.

THE FINAL DRIVE OF THE PATRIOTS' SUPER BOWL XXXVI VICTORY OVER THE RAMS? YEAH, YOU'RE GONNA WATCH THIS
Not that we ever need an excuse to watch this, but playing the Rams provides an easy one, so here it is -- the final 1 minute and 21 seconds of the greatest victory in franchise history. I agree the Snow Bowl was more aesthetically pleasing, but nothing tops winning your first Super Bowl in this manner. Let's walk through the final moments:

1:21: Rams receiver Ricky Proehl celebrates his tying touchdown on the sideline. For all of our gripes about the Patriots' recent issues with closing, keep in mind that the Rams erased a 14-point Patriots lead in slightly more than 10 minutes of the fourth quarter in this one. Of course, it was one of the great offenses in league history. But man, was it ever close to getting away.

1:21, as Tom Brady and the offense walk to the line of scrimmage: "With no timeouts, I think that the Patriots, with this field position, you have to just run the clock out, you have to play for overtime now.'' I can't imagine that John Madden was ever so wrong as he was at that moment.

:33 Brady hits J.R. Redmond for third time on the drive, and Redmond fights to convert his second down of the drive. Weird seeing Kevin Faulk standing on the sideline while Redmond, whose NFL career ended in 2004, makes the type of clutch plays that Faulk became famous for. Also: This, right here, is when it started to feel like Adam Vinatieri was going to get a chance.

:21: Brady to Troy Brown, 23 yards, and he gets out of bounds. Amazing how calm Brady looks -- you almost expect him to point out the ghost of John Candy in the stands. As for Brown, it was one more big play in a season full of them. Randy Moss was spectacular in 2007, but no one was more reliable than Troy Brown, 2001.

:14: Brady to Jermaine Wiggins for five crucial yards. Wonder if he yelled "WIGGS OUT!'' after the play.

:07: Brady spikes it. Here comes Vinatieri, who looks insanely calm. Madden: "I'll tell you, what Tom Brady just did gives me goosebumps." We'll take that as the mea culpa, big fella.

:07: Not that the Fox network was trying to jinx Vinatieri or anything, but they did show him missing a kick in pregame and flashed a graphic that said "Has Never Missed a Field Goal Indoors in Six-Year Career (24/24).

:00: Pat Summerall, with one of the most understated yet effective calls of a last-second, Super Bowl-winning field goal imaginable: "... and it's right down the pipe. [Pause.] Adam Vinatieri ... no time on the clock, and the Patriots have won Super Bowl 36." It doesn't quite deliver the chills of the joyous radio call by Gil and Gino, but man is that ever fun to relive.

Oh, and watch all the way to end, when Brady is pounding a bemused-looking Drew Bledsoe on the shoulder pads and yelling in the most awkward way imaginable, "We %**#*# won!" It's a great scene, a reminder of how naive Brady was. You have to figure he'd be more aware of Bledsoe's bittersweet perspective these days.

GRIEVANCE OF THE WEEK
Hmmmm. It appears there is no major grievance this week. The Patriots survived against the Jets. Drew Magary has my usual gripes about fan entitlement covered (and then some) over at Deadspin. The above video reminds me that Ty Law should have been the MVP of Super Bowl XXXVI, but how can you complain about anything from that game, and besides, the statute of limitations has probably expired there. So I'll give you this, a mini-grievance: Here's hoping the proprietors of the Rams website learn how to spell Abbey Road before they depart London. On the plus side, Ringo has never looked better.

COMPLETELY RANDOM FOOTBALL CARD
Brandon Lloyd isn't the only high-quality receiver to play for the Rams before coming to the Patriots, and no, that's not a reference to Greg Salas.

We'll start with Harold Jackson came over from the Rams in '78 to fill the void left by the Darryl Stingley tragedy and, though he was on the wrong side of 30, gave Steve Grogan a dual deep threat to Stanley Morgan in the late '70s and early '80s. In 1979, he had 1,013 yards receiving, averaging 22.5 yards per catch.

Then there was Henry Ellard, who had four straight 1,000-yard seasons for the Rams (1988-91) and closed his career as late-season roster-filler for the '98 Patriots, making five catches. Finally, we can't forget Torry Holt ...

... who got hurt and never played for the Patriots after signing as a free agent before the 2010 season but who still made a contribution to franchise lore by ducking for cover time and again during Super Bowl XXXVI.

Jackson, Ellard, and Holt had 2,313 catches between them during their NFL careers, and given the chance, they could probably do some damage against the Patriots' hapless defensive backfield Sunday.

PREDICTION, OR PICKING VINCE WILFORK OVER STEPHEN JACKSON IN 2004 WAS THE RIGHT THING TO DO, BUT DAMN, THE BEN WATSON PICK STILL MAKES NO SENSE
Though the Rams' receiver corps doesn't have much name recognition beyond Danny Amendola (who may not and probably shouldn't play after suffering a scary collarbone injury just a few weeks ago), at this point, it would be foolish to expect the Patriots pass defense to shut down any opponent based on what we've seen so far. Bradford will hit on at least one deep ball at some point. On the other side of the ball, Chris Long and the rest of the Rams should at the very least play the Patriots physically. (Think Cortland Finnegan has decided which Patriots receiver he is going to cheap shot this week? Or is the correct answer "all of them''?) That's not my way of saying the Patriots are primed to be upset. That's my way of saying they're going to win, but probably not as handily as one might have expected when we first looked at this game on the schedule. They'll go into the bye week with five wins, three losses, a lot of reasons for optimism, and a lot of things to work on. Patriots 27, Rams 16

(Last week's prediction: Patriots 37, Jets 13. Final score: Patriots 29, Jets 26, OT. Season record: 4-3.)

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Unless you're devoid of most context and perspective or, like Jim Nantz, apparently oblivious to the actual outcome, I suppose there's some satisfaction to be found somewhere in the Patriots' 29-26 overtime victory Sunday over the Jets.

Stephen Gostkowski, a fine kicker who replaced an iconic one, drilled two of the biggest kicks of his career. That's big for the future as well as the present. The Patriots are alone in first place in the AFC East. They beat the Jets, which is always enjoyable around here no matter the circumstances. They improved to 7-0 when wearing the classic red jersey and Pat Patriot logo, further evidence that it should be their mandatory uniform every Sunday.

And ... well, that's about it, unless you're some kind of weirdo who counts blowing another fourth-quarter lead by this time avoiding the crushing last-minute defeat as satisfying. Otherwise, those postgame fireworks at Gillette Stadium after Mark Sanchez's fumble in overtime officially permitted the Patriots to escape had all the effect of your hammered uncle running around with a couple of sparklers on the Fourth of July.

This was no cause for celebration. It was cause to look away, exhale, and get the hell out of there, hoping with limited confidence that it will all get better soon.

The plot that has become all too familiar during recent postseasons has repeated a couple of times during the strange first seven games of this season. The Patriots build a lead, seem on the verge of putting their opponent away on multiple occasions, can't quite make that key conversion or stop that would keep the momentum in their favor, let the opponent creep back in, and somehow time it perfectly so that they give up the lead when there's just enough time left on the clock for one abbreviated, ill-fated desperation drive.

It happened last February in Indianapolis, it happened in Week 3 in Baltimore, it happened last weekend in jacked-and-pumped Seattle, and it happened Sunday. Had they actually lost, the Patriots might be considered the worst October closer since Calvin Schiraldi in 1986.

It's as exasperating as it is predictable, though some of us still miss the clues and the harbingers. Silly me, this fool believed that the extremely impressive team -- or offense, at least -- we saw in the second half against the Bills or for the majority of the victory over the Broncos was the one we'd see against the Jets. The Patriots are usually reliable coming off a tough loss, and they're usually ferocious against a division opponent, and they usually find great joy in beating the Jets.

It started well enough, with a 16-7 lead at halftime, and I thought the Patriots had it all but locked up when Rob Gronkowski's second touchdown of the day capped a 15-play, 83-yard drive to give the Patriots a 23-13 lead with less than 18 minutes left in the game.

The Jets, down 10 points, on the road, without injured stars Darrelle Revis and Santonio Holmes and, perhaps more damning, with Mark Sanchez, surely wouldn't have the ability or spirit to fight back the way the Seahawks did a week ago. The Jets put together a 14-play, 92-yard drive, capped by a 7-yard touchdown pass from Mark Sanchez to Dustin Keller to cut it to 23-20.

I suppose the Patriots deserve some credit for winning the game even after hitting what sure felt like their season nadir Sunday, which to be precise was the moment when the Jets took a 26-23 lead with 1 minute 37 seconds left on Nick Folk's 43-yard field goal, which came 29 seconds and one inexcusable Devin McCourty fumble after his game-tying 43-yard field goal.

Losing to Pete Carroll this way is annoying enough, but losing that way to the trash-talking, win-nothing Jets would be a whole different level of aggravation.

Yet somehow the Patriots salvaged their Sunday, despite giving up the lead late, despite allowing the inept Sanchez to pass for 328 yards, exactly four times as much as he accumulated against the Colts last week, and despite further chronic ineptitude from their exasperating defensive backfield.

Kyle Arrington is regressing just like everyone who played before him, McCourty is an enigma we're not close to solving, Pat Chung has stagnated and now has his annual injury, Steve Gregory plays like all of his football knowledge was bestowed by Norv Turner, Tavon Wilson and Alfonzo Dennard are learning on the fly, and Ras-I Dowling ... I mean, what's is it with this kid? The "I" might stand for injured, or maybe ineffective, but it's surely not for incompletion.

Seven games into a season that still could be fulfilling, I still don't know what to make of this team. Do you? Does Bill Belichick? Who are they now, and who will they be in two months? They should be better than this and they aren't, and that applies not just to Matt Patricia's defense, but even to the talent-rich offense.

Brady is consistently off-target on deep throws, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels gets too cute too often, especially with a lead. You wonder whether Brady rolls his eyes when he sees a flea-flicker in the game plan and thinks to himself, C'mon, Josh, can't I just throw it to Rob or Aaron or Wes or Brandon, you know, when one of them inevitably gets open? With the talent they have on offense, there's no need to turn to trickery. If efficiency and discipline are prioritized over style, the fireworks will come naturally.

Come to think of it, that serves as a reminder of one last plus from this game: Gronkowski, who has been banged up but who also seems to be taken for granted at times, had six catches for 78 yards, including two touchdowns. He had nine targets, the most he's had since the Buffalo game Sept. 30. He was not an afterthought or a decoy or a third offensive tackle. He was involved to the level he should be.

Gronkowski is essential, one of the game's great weapons, and if his own team needs a reminder of how much he matters, how much he can help control momentum single-handedly, maybe they should do this: take a moment and ponder what he could accomplish if he got to play against the Patriots' defense.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Welcome to the seventh installment of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-but-lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots' weekly matchup that runs right here every Friday at noon. This Sunday, the 3-3 Patriots host the 3-3 Jets, who have proven surprisingly resilient given the injuries to Darrelle Revis, Santonio Holmes, and the apparently undiagnosed ones to the throwing arms of all of their quarterbacks. Let's get to it.

THREE PLAYERS OTHER THAN TOM BRADY THAT I'LL BE WATCHING
1. Devin McCourty: I'm fascinated by Bill Belichick's impassioned defense of the third-year cornerback. It's rare that Belichick singles out any one player for praise, particularly one who by all appearances to the relatively untrained eye is struggling mightily. It suggests one of two things. The problems with the Elvis "Toast" Patterson Tribute Band that is the Patriots secondary is not McCourty's fault, and there have been times when safety help he was waiting for never arrived. Or, the coach figures a vote of confidence is what McCourty needs more than anything else to succeed again as he did as a rookie. Either way, this much we all know: Kyle Arrington has been much worse with far less criticism.

2. Dustin Keller: The Jets' talented tight end and Mark Sanchez's security blankey has had his moments against the Patriots through the years, including 7 catches for 115 yards and a score in the second game of the 2010 season, a 28-14 Jets win. He's been out with a hamstring injury for much of the season, finally returning last week in the rout of the Colts. His importance to the Jets offense was explained nicely by Conor Orr in the Newark Star-Ledger last week when he noted that Keller was involved in some relevant way in 15 of Sanchez's 26 touchdown passes last season:

Whether it was catching the touchdown (five), drawing a double-team on the same side of the field as the receiver who caught the touchdown (six), drawing a triple-team while another receiver was able to break completely free in the end zone (two), selling a play action to keep a linebacker from dropping into coverage (one) or altering a route to draw a corner out of covering the backfield (one), he managed to operate in strength behind the scenes.

It'll be interesting to see how the Patriots attempt to cover him, because even if he's not at full strength, he's capable of exposing Brandon Spikes and Jerod Mayo.

3. Tim Tebow: Because CBS won't give us a choice. He'll continue to lead the league in camera-time-to-playing-time ratio (CTTPTR! I invented a stat with an acronym! Take that, Barnwell!) I look forward to his incomplete pass off the back of Jason Hill's head and his five carries for seven yards.

IS IT ME, OR WAS CHRIS BERMAN SLIGHTLY LESS ANNOYING 18 YEARS AGO? Believe it or not, the answer is yes. This 1994 clip from "NFL PrimeTime'' -- the must-see postgame wrapup show until the NFL Network and NBC's "Football Night in America'' came along -- serves as a reminder of why Berman was once so popular before he essentially became a lifelike caricature of Fred Flintstone. He narrates the highlights with energy and humor ("You'd have to be an idiot to think the Jets could lose this game at the Meadowlands," he says, right before the Jets lost that game at the Meadowlands), and he even avoids multiple opportunities to refer to a certain Jets defensive back as James Hasty Pudding.

But Boomer is not the reason I'm including this clip. I'm including it because it includes a wildly eclectic mix of players, including the other Boomer -- Esiason, who was the Jets quarterback at the time, as well as Art Monk, the original Mark Ingram, Rob (Rod Tidwell) Moore, and Dan Marino doing Dan Marino things such as ripping off his chinstrap and throwing absolute lasers.

And I'm also including it because it's the game the Dolphins beat the Jets with the fake spike. I still cannot believe the Patriots lost to Pete Carroll. That's my grievance of the week, by the way, and probably will remain that way until Belichick gets another shot at the Khaki Koach again

ALTERNATE GRIEVANCE OF THE WEEK Wait, wait, I've got another one. Actually, this is a prologue to an inevitable grievance. You can bet Jim Nantz and Phil Simms are going to talk about the absence of Revis pretty much every time Brady completes a pass to a wide receiver. And what he brings, or brought, to the Jets should be acknowledged -- he's a great player. But his ability and contributions don't quite match the hype -- I believe ESPN referred to him as the best player in franchise history when he was injured, which is absurd given that Hall of Famer Curtis Martin ran for over 10,000 yards in his eight seasons in New York. Revis is talented, and he's had his moments, and they miss him, but let's put it this way -- I've never seen him have a game against the Patriots like Seattle's unsung Richard Sherman had last week.

COMPLETELY RANDOM FOOTBALL CARD
Jets running back Shonn Greene had the game of his NFL life last Sunday, running for 161 yards and three touchdowns against the Colts. He won't come close to that against the Patriots' stout run defense Sunday -- one-third of that output seems about right Sunday. But the Jets will need him, mostly because they don't have any other alternative. Backups Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight are injured. Tebow is supposed to see some time at running back, which is probably closer to his natural position than quarterback, but he's not exactly going to be John Riggins back there, or even Tim Riggins for that matter. Maybe Freeman McNeil is available?

PREDICTION, OR REX RYAN IS FAMILIAR WITH THE AGONY OF DEFEAT, AND LET'S SEE YOU BEAT THAT FEET REFERENCE, WELKER.
After whiffing on last week's prediction and enduring the well-deserved slings and arrows, it's tempting to get out of the prediction game. But then I thought, did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? And then I thought Shaughnessy probably has copy rights to references to "Animal House." And then I thought, aw, the hell with it, there's no way they're losing to the Jets and I'll get my redemption. So here it is: Mark Sanchez will surpass 82 yards passing for the first week in a row, Brady will surpass 82 yards in the first quarter, and the Patriots quarterback will improve to 17-5 career against the Jets with little drama. Patriots 37, Jets 13

(Last week's prediction: Patriots 31, Seahawks 13. Final score: Patriots Defensive Backs 24, Patriots 23. Season record: 3-3.)

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Well, that was quite a hideous bit of irony, an aggravating plot twist that reminded us not only of who the Patriots used to be but who they are in danger of becoming.

Bill Belichick's Patriots blundered away a 13-point fourth-quarter lead Sunday in a 24-23 loss to the tough, flawed Seattle Seahawks. They did it in a manner that has become all too familiar in the recent seasons of this mostly glorious era, whether you're recalling the two painful Super Bowl losses or the three losses by a total of four points this season. They failed to close.

Until recently, that was not something we'd have even considered to be a characteristic of a Bill Belichick/Tom Brady-helmed team, let alone a troubling recurring defect. The first true instance of it came in the 2006 AFC Championship game against the Colts, and I'll spare you the details since you surely do not need or want any reminder.

Of course, this season, it seems like reminders of this curious problem are coming roughly every other Sunday. Whether it's the lack of a killer instinct, the absence of a single cornerback with a functioning GPS system, or various somethings in between, the Patriots struggle far too often to choke out an opponent when they have it by the throat.

In Week 2, they held a third-quarter lead at home against Arizona and lost. In Week 3, they held a 9-point fourth-quarter lead at Baltimore and lost. Sunday, they led 23-10 with just over nine minutes to play, and yet it somehow ended with Pete Carroll jumping around in victory like a delirious jacked-and-pumped fool and Seahawks defensive back Richard Sherman taunting Tom Brady, who was left with no comeback, verbal or otherwise.

The most frustrating aspect of the loss for those of us -- ahem -- who said they'd never lose to a Pete Carroll team is that they lost to a Pete Carroll team pretty much in the way they habitually lost when he was the well-meaning but overmatched head coach here from 1997-99. The offense became one-dimensional (Brady flung it a Bledsoeian 58 times Sunday) because the run was increasingly ineffective (Stevan Ridley had 16 yards on seven fourth-quarter carries). There were dumb penalties (Brady was twice called for intentional grounding, once heaving one through Dan Connolly's five-hole) and inexcusable mistakes (failing to score during a pair of trips inside the 10, going 1 for 6 in the red zone, terrible clock management at the end of the first half that cost them three points).

All that was missing all that was missing from the full Pete Carroll Flashback Experience was Terry Glenn hamstring injury and a Chris Canty dance recital after giving up 11 yards on third and 10.

The Patriots' pass defense at least had the dignity not to break out "Rump Shaker'' every time rookie Russell Wilson, the 30th-ranked passer in the league entering the game, rolled out, let it fly (he completed 16 passes for 293 yards), and jogged the 40 or so yards to the new line of scrimmage. But otherwise, they were an embarrassment, and with the chronic regression of player after player under the watch of Belichick, Matt Patricia, and Josh Boyer, maybe it's time for desperate measures. That's right, I'm saying that maybe it is time for Belichick to mend fences with Eric Mangini, rescue him from the personal, unthinkable hell of sitting opposite Skip Bayless on ESPN, and bring back someone who managed to coach up the likes of Hank Poteat, Randall Gay, Troy Brown and Earthwind Moreland into serviceable defensive backs. I'm only half-kidding, and that also goes for the suggestion that they should pull Ty Law off the CSNNE studio to become the nickel back. At least he'd know where to be. Most of these guys -- and let's include Kyle Arrington, who has actually been worse than the maligned Devin McCourty -- have worse ball skills than Ian Rapoport.

A Patriots fan can't help but have serious defensive back envy watching the Seahawks. Kam Chancellor was chosen 133d overall in 2010 -- 106 spots after the regressing McCourty, who isn't bad for someone who apparently can't turn his head in either direction. Richard Sherman, who talks a lot and more than backs it up, was chosen 155th last year -- 122 spots after Ras-I Dowling, who barely sees the field. Earl Thomas is what you once hoped Patrick Chung or the departed Brandon Merriweather might be. Sunday was a reminder of how much of a futile daydream that is.

Seattle's defense is legitimately ferocious -- they hadn't given up a 300-yard passer, 100-yard rusher or 100-yard receiver until Sunday, when Brady and the fearless Wes Welker broke two of those three barriers -- and while I'll never question Brady's toughness, let's just say there was more evidence submitted Sunday in the case of whether he's more wary of the pass rush than he was pre-Bernard Pollard. Brady still has better-than-average pocket presence, but sometimes he bobs and weaves when there are more shadows than pass rushers. I'm pretty sure that on one second-half sack, Nate Solder got credit for the tackle.

That considered, the biggest play of the game for the Seahawks might not have been anything their quarterback did, but something they did to the quarterback. Brady was drilled in the chin on the final play of the fourth quarter, drawing an unnecessary roughness flag on the Seahawks' Jason Jones. The 15-yards were more than worth it. The numbers suggest that after that blow, Brady was playing through clouds -- he completed just 5 of 13 passes in the fourth quarter for 81 yards, and 15 of those game on the final 4th-and-17 completion to Welker. He was called for grounding, took a sack, and threw an interception inside the 10 in that quarter. It was if the footage CBS showed of Scott Secules somehow transferred to Brady. He seemed fine after the game, but for whatever reason he clearly was not himself during its final 15 minutes.

With the reset button having been hit on the AFC East -- everyone is 3-3 -- and the ain't-dead-yet Jets lurking, next Sunday will bring the ultimate test of the growing notion that the best offense against the Patriots is to throw the ball long and far and wait for something good to happen. The matchup of the resistible something-less-than-a-force -- Mark Sanchez's arm -- against the movable object known as the Patriots defensive backfield should be a fascinating battle of ineptitude. But looking ahead is for later in the week. Right now, we're left with an increasingly familiar lament:

How many more victories would the Patriots have in recent seasons if games were just 55 minutes long?

@GlobeChadFinn

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Welcome to the sixth installment of the Unconventional Preview, a serious-but-lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots' weekly matchup that runs right here every Friday at noon. This Sunday, the 3-2 Patriots are in Seattle to take on the feisty Seahawks, whose "12th Man'' home-field advantage should be negated by having Pete Carroll as their head coach. Let's get to it.

THREE PLAYERS OTHER THAN TOM BRADY THAT I'LL BE WATCHING
Red Bryant: Seattle's defense is giving up the fewest yards per game in the league, and its rush defense is third-best at 66.6 yards per game. (Somehow that number has to be attributable to Tim Tebow.) Bryant, the Seahawks' tough fifth-year strong-side defensive end, is a significant part of their success in stopping the opposing ground game. And his presence should warrant extra attention from Patriots fans -- Bill Belichick coveted him in free agency this offseason. When he chose to remain with Seattle, the Patriots signed Jonathan Fanene as a consolation prize. He didn't make it out of camp.

Russell Wilson: His charisma, confidence, mobility, and knack for making the occasional big play have won him a lot of believers as a rookie, starting with his coach. But he's also undersized, inexperienced, and not particularly effective -- he's 26th in quarterback rating (75.2) and 33d in yards per game (163), ahead of just Jacksonville's Blaine Gabbert. His upside might not be far from what Doug Flutie was at his best, and that's not an insult, but right now, Matt Flynn should be playing. You want a bold prediction? Here's a bold prediction: Wilson is going to make Devin McCourty look good come Sunday.

Stevan Ridley: So the 151 rushing yards will supersede that late fumble against the Broncos, right? He's so dynamic, the closest thing they've had to a true, must-be-accounted-for feature back since Corey Dillon in 2004, that Bill Belichick can't bury him this year like he did last postseason ... can he?

COMPLETELY RANDOM FOOTBALL CARD: Curtis Martin, who in my completely biased opinion is among the most underrated players in league history, the most underrated great New York athlete in history, and Bob Kraft's biggest blunder (other than that audition video, I suppose), is what Curt Warner would have been had he not blown out his knee 10 carries into his second NFL season. Now that I mention it, I can't think of two NFL players who were more similar than Martin and Warner, and no, the Barber twins don't count.

GRIEVANCE OF THE WEEK, OR PETE CARROLL WAS A TERRIBLE COACH WITH THE PATRIOTS AND ANYONE WHO THINKS OTHERWISE WASN'T PAYING ATTENTION
Upon first glance and with absolutely no context, Pete Carroll's three-year run in New England doesn't look so bad. He went 27-21 in three season. He made the playoffs twice. He was enthusiastic. He had a swell winning percentage.

And you know what else? He was a failure who along with Bobby Grier ruined the foundation that Bill Parcells had built. That's not harsh. That's the truth. If you cared about the Patriots then, you don't need to be told this. You know. You remember. You remember what it was like when Curtis Martin was allowed to get away, when Terry Glenn was unaccountable and never called on it, when Ty Law became a flag-magnet, when Chris Slade rolled his eyes and checked out, when Bruce Armstrong plodded up the back stairs, when Vincent Brisby and Lawyer Milloy brawled and brawled again, and when Milloy raged about it all.

They got a little worse every season Carroll was here. They were a little more undisciplined, a little less accountable, with each passing season. They habitually regressed over a season's course, most notably in his final season, when they began 4-0 and ended 8-8.

They had talent, a lot of it -- Drew Bledsoe, Glenn, Law, Willie McGinest, and so on -- but the roster was thin, and the stars didn't play up to their ability. The weren't unlike the current Cowboys or Jets, full of fading talent and false confidence.

The Patriots, stacked with additional picks in part from losing Martin to the Jets, drafted horribly under Grier -- of the 27 players drafted from 1997-99, only Damien Woody was a full-time starter by the end of Bill Belichick's first season. But Carroll was responsible, too -- no one developed on his watch. He had Tebucky Jones playing cornerback, for Pete's sake. If there's a hypothetical enduring image of his tenure, it's of Carroll fist-pumping and jumping around like the first male cheerleader in franchise history after a supposed big play, then seeing the yellow flag and looking puzzled as the official announces that the Patriots had 13 players on the field.

His enthusiasm was impressive. He seemed like a decent man. And he had no business being the head coach of this professional football team at that point in time. Any other narrative is as incomplete as a Michael Bishop Hail Mary.

APPARENTLY BEAST MODE IS BOUNTY-PROOF
For the longest time, the run I considered the best I had ever seen was pulled off by a decent early-'80s running back for the Falcons named Lynn Cain. I can't remember the year or the game or the circumstances or much else, really. Just that I was about 10 years old, he broke a half-dozen tackles, or maybe it was a dozen, with an endless, anticipatory array of jukes and fakes and spins, and the play left me so amazed that sometime over the next few days I traded all of my Walter Payton football cards for Lynn Cain football cards. Now those are the details you do remember. The "Sweetness"-surpassing superstardom I envisioned never panned out -- I think Cain blew out a knee -- but his run stuck with me as something so spectacular that not even Barry Sanders turning Harlon Barnett into a spinning top could bounce it out of my top spot. But something finally did -- Marshawn Lynch, NFL wild-card game versus the Saints, January 2011. Sorry, Lynn Cain, wherever you are. That is the best run I've ever seen.

PREDICTION, OR THERE'S NO WAY THE PATRIOTS ARE LOSING TO A DOGGONE PETE CARROLL TEAM
Have I made it clear how I feel about Pete Carroll? Too subtle? Let's put it this way: Seattle's "12th man" is awesome, a true home-field advantage. The defense is effective and mean, especially its hard-hitting defensive backfield, and they're no treat to run against, either. I look forward to seeing how Tom Brady will attack them (think we may see a lot of Wes Welker and Danny Woodhead in this one), and I look forward to Lynch against Vince Wilford, Brandon Spikes, and the Patriots run defense. Ultimately, though, the headline says it all -- there's no way they're losing to a doggone Pete Carroll team. None. Patriots 31, Seahawks 13

(Last week's prediction: Patriots 45, Broncos 24. Final score: Patriots 31, Broncos 21. Season record: 3-2.)

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Well, no, he hasn't quite been around that long. Kevin Faulk never wore a leather helmet, or even the timeless Pat Patriot logo, at least before retro became the lucrative rage.

But it was a different time and era when he arrived in Foxborough in 1999 as a second-round pick after an exceptional career at Louisiana State. The jerseys were a lighter shade of blue, and for too many of the players who wore them -- even eventual championship cornerstones such as Willie McGinest -- underachievement was the norm.

Over his 13 seasons, Faulk proved anything but the underachiever. He's the longest-tenured running back in franchise history, but he was so much more than the position designation suggests. He retires at age 35 as the Patriots' all-time leader in all-purpose yards (12,349), kickoff-return yards (4,098) and is fifth in rushing yards (3,607) and receptions (431).

All of those numbers offer a clue to his extraordinary versatility, but they don't come close to doing the player justice.

The Patriots have had better players than Faulk, but very few who were better at what they were asked to do. It seemed like every other 5-yard run came on a pivotal third-and-4 situation in which he deked on last linebacker to get that extra yard, and every 8-yard catch happened when they needed seven crucial yards late in the third quarter. He earned those yards, his choppy steps and endless array of dekes compensating for his lack of breakaway speed (he supposedly ran a 4.57 40-yard dash at the combine, which was undoubtedly slower than many linebackers he'd eventually leave in the dust).

Faulk was smart, shifty, and clutch, and a player of his size had no business being such an effective blocker, especially on blitz pickup. Feel free to pause here and ponder for the 33d or so time about how the 2008 season might have gone had Faulk not been suspended for the fateful season opener. Chances are Tom Brady would have fewer scars on his knee and cretinous Chiefs fans never would have been introduced to Matt Cassel.

Even now, he probably could have stepped off the dais Tuesday morning, lined up behind Brady, and taken a direct snap to complete a two-point conversion ... and it's a moment he probably would have appreciated given that he still had hopes of playing this season. Last season was his farewell -- sort of like Troy Brown's beloved veteran emeritus status during final season in 2007 -- and it perhaps took awhile for him to realize as much. When he did, he Tuesday's official, warm Bill Belichick Bon Voyage, a salute from the coach on the occasion of retirement given to players he truly admired and appreciated.

There's something appropriate about the coincidence of Faulk, one of the brightest and most versatile players in franchise lore, officially announcing his retirement the same week the Patriots are preparing to play a Pete Carroll team. Faulk was the last remnant of that frustrating Carroll/Bobby Grier era of regression, one of the few who made it from the 1997-99 drafts.

For a time, it seemed Faulk might be one of those players who, while not a flat-out flop such as Chris Canty, Andy Katzenmoyer or Tony Simmons, probably wouldn't live up to his draft position. Carroll initially miscast the 5-foot-8-inch Faulk as a potential feature back, a deployment that may not have been egregious as trying to shoehorn Tebucky Jones in at cornerback but certainly indicated a lack of logic in terms of the best way to utilize personnel. Faulk had 10 carries for 17 yards in his first game as a Patriot before journeyman Terry Allen took the majority of the carries the rest of the way.

In a sense, Faulk stands as a lesson in being patient with a young player. Early in his career, he was not trustworthy with the football, fumbling nine times in his first 27 games, including six times in Belichick's first season here, 2000. In 2001, it was J.R. Redmond who was the Snow Bowl and Super Bowl hero in the role of third-down back, and in 2002 at least one certain idiot columnist suggested Faulk should be cut after he failed to pursue a fumble in a loss to the Packers.

Instead, he stuck around, stopped giving the ball away, found and excelled in his various niches, and became essential, rushing for a career-high 638 yards in 2003 while also catching 48 passes for 440 yards for the Super Bowl champs. It was his finest season, though many more fine ones followed.

Somewhere during that outstanding run that was celebrated Tuesday, the transformation happened. For a time -- a different, long-ago time -- it seemed like he would be one more Carroll/Grier refugee who wouldn't cut it as a Belichick player.

Instead, little Kevin Faulk grew into the epitome of one.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

FOXBOROUGH -- Stevan Ridley's professional football career is still young, a mere 21 games after the Patriots' 31-21 victory over the Denver Broncos Sunday. But already he's acquainted with the disappointment of fumbling away an opportunity.

Here's hoping Ridley's familiar mistake Sunday isn't foreshadowing that it's about to happen again.

As a rookie a year ago, Ridley emerged as one of the more intriguing young players on a roster dotted with first- and second-year promise, running for 97 yards on 10 carries against the Raiders in his fourth professional game and closing out the regular season with three straight strong performances in which he totaled 210 yards on 39 carries. But in the finale against the Bills, he fumbled the football out of bounds, and two weeks later in the Patriots' AFC Division Round matchup with the Broncos, he coughed up the football with 8:46 remaining in the third quarter and the Patriots ahead, 42-7.

That was the last time Ridley carried the ball as a rookie. He was inactive for the AFC Championship Game victory over Baltimore, and dressed but did not play in the Super Bowl against the Giants.

With hindsight, wondering whether Ridley might have been able to make a difference in the 3-point defeat to the Giants is hauntingly irresistible. But the lesson from Bill Belichick was harsh and probably necessary given what was at stake:

You lose the football, you lose our trust, and you lose your playing time.

That cold teaching moment was dredged up again Sunday when Ridley spit up the football with 5:19 remaining and the Patriots trying to finish off the Broncos after a 31-7 lead had been reduced to 31-21.

The fumble did not prove disastrous, and Ridley would not be the Alcoa Running Back Goat of the Day -- that dubious distinction went to Denver's Willis McGahee, who dropped a fourth-and-1 pass that killed one drive (cue Manning ripping off his chin strap), then fumbled the ball right back to the Patriots after Ridley's blunder (cue Manning calling Edgerrin James's agent on the Broncos' behalf).

But it did prove to be his final carry of the day -- Brandon Bolden came on to close out the victory with three carries on the final clock-killing possession. And rather than punctuating his career-best performance (28 carries, 151 yards, 1 TD, and plenty of scene-stealing from the marquee Manning/Tom Brady showdown) with one more exclamation point, Ridley ended it as somewhat of a question mark.

Asked afterward whether he would remember the good or the bad from the game, he did not hesitate in his replay.

"The negative. Not going to lie,'' he said. "It was late in the game, you've got to close it out, you've got to run the football, and I told myself before that play that I had to hold on to the football. ... You can't make any excuses, I messed up.''

Presumably Ridley spent the offseason with the football glued to his hands wherever he went, just like the Omar Epps character in "The Program.'' So, sure, it is a disconcerting that he lost his grip on it Sunday, and you couldn't help but wonder had it happened earlier in the game when or if he would have returned to the field.

"I'm sure Coach is going to have something to say about it, but like I said there's always another day tomorrow,'' Ridley said. "So I'll be back to work and working ball security high and tight. And that's all I can do."

It's easy to get stuck with a reputation as a fumbler, and once you have it, it's tougher to shake than an unblocked Brandon Spikes. Ridley may be on the verge of getting slapped with such a label, but he doesn't deserve it. Sunday's fumble was the fourth of his NFL career in 202 touches. That's not great, but it's not Cleveland Gary putting the ball on the ground 12 times for the 1990 Rams, either.

In college, Ridley fumbled three times. Fumbling is a problem Kevin Faulk had early in his career and overcame, and it's something that never was a consideration with BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who suddenly has the first two of his pro career this season in Cincinnati.

It's football. They hit each other hard. It's going to happen even to the most surehanded ball carriers.

Ridley still needs to prove that he can hold on to the ball under pressure, when the game's momentum is teetering in the balance and the defense expects the run. But even if Ridley is at the point now where defenses are on alert about his occasional inability to protect the football, Belichick should not and most likely will not bury him like he did last postseason. Because this much has changed: He's become essential.

The Patriots piled up 251 yards on the ground Sunday, the second straight week they've surpassed 200. The balance on offense -- Wes Welker had 13 receptions, Tom Brady threw for 233 yards, and the 35 first downs set a franchise standard -- was remarkable, especially when you remember that the last time they played the Broncos, Aaron Hernandez led the way with 61 rushing yards.

It is not an exaggeration to say this could be the most well-rounded offense they have had in the Brady/Belichick era, and yes, that includes 2007. The running game won't match what they had in 1976 or '78 in John Hannah's heyday, or even in the mid-80s with Craig James and Tony Collins. But it's a heck of a lot better than the tap-dancing Laurence Maroney gave them five years ago, and it could be the best they've had since Corey Dillon was at the peak of his powers.

Not that Belichick was about to agree to any such comparisons Sunday.

"I don't know. I think we're looking a whole lot different -- I'd say it's a lot different,'' Belichick said. "Scheme, multiple players, there's no Corey Dillon. It's a different style, different types of running plays, different style of runners.''

The different style of runners is what is making this work. The pieces fit beautifully, but only if Ridley is at the forefront. He is the closest thing they have to a prototypical feature back, a close-to-ideal combination of power and speed; three or four times a game he comes close to breaking one.

Five games into his career, Bolden (54 yards Sunday) is already established as another rookie free-agent steal. While he's not quite as powerful and has a little more elusiveness, it's impossible to watch him and not be reminded of his predecessor Green-Ellis. Danny Woodhead (47 yards on seven carries and one huge third-down conversion) is very effective when used in moderation. Even Shane Vereen chipped in with a one-yard touchdown run, prompting this comical postgame exchange between a reporter and Belichick:

Reporter: "What is it about Vereen that has you favoring him on the goal line?"

Belichick: "What are you talking about?"

Reporter: "The touchdown run that he had earlier."

Belichick: "He was in the game.''

The same couldn't be said for Ridley at the end. But despite his gaffe Sunday that jostled those memories of his gaffes as a rookie, it will be more often than not.

"It didn't end the way I wanted, but besides that I'm just thankful to be out there. Some thngs are going in my favor and some aren't,'' he said. ''For me, I just need to come back in here and get back to work. But we're going to continue to work hard. That's the only way they do it around here, and that's the team way."

@GlobeChadFinn

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

I'll be writing a conventional Patriots column after every game this season. So I figured that to preview the game each week, I'd try something a little less conventional and yet still in the spirit of the serious-but-lighthearted, often-nostalgic prism with which TATB has always viewed sports. So here is the fifth installment of what we're calling the Unconventional Preview. Hope you have as much fun reading it as I have putting it together, and I promise to abandon this silly intro sometime soon.

THREE PLAYERS OTHER THAN TOM BRADY THAT I'LL BE WATCHING
1. Patrick Chung: For all of the success the Patriots had against Manning and the Colts through the years, the image of him stepping up and finding Dallas Clark wide-open 18 yards down the field was so common, especially later on, that it's practically on perpetual replay whenever you think of Manning. If the Patriots have one true concern at this point, it is probably the play of their safeties -- Steve Gregory has regressed and lost playing time to Tavon Wilson, and Chung was a step late when he wasn't getting downright torched against the Bills. He must play better Sunday, because he is going to be wearing a bull's-eye.

2. Brandon Lloyd: At first I thought Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey was throwing around the hyperbole, being kind to an ex-teammate, or just trying to soften up an opponent when he said this week that Lloyd is the best athlete in the NFL. But the more I think about it, the more I realize the Patriots receiver is at least in the argument. While a player like Rob Gronkowski -- huge, multi-talented and faster than he has any right to be -- probably deserves some consideration, I think the consensus is that the best athletes on the field are probably the receivers and cornerbacks, with safeties and outside linebackers in the argument. While my vote my goes to someone like Patrick Peterson, there isn't a receiver in the league who makes more acrobatic catches than Lloyd, and his footwork along the sideline is as good as it gets. If someone like Bailey, who at his peak might have been the best athlete in the league himself, says Lloyd is, who am I not to nod in agreement?

3. Stevan Ridley and his ball-carrying friends: Against the Bills, the Patriots flashed back to the late '70s Sam Cunningham/Don Calhoun/Horace Ivory/Andy Johnson days, when it seemed like four running backs would pile up about 200 yards running behind John Hannah and Leon Gray. Ridley and rookie Brandon Bolden combined for 243 yards on the ground. While such numbers probably aren't likely againt the Broncos -- Denver's run defense is decent at ninth in the league at 87.5 yards per game -- the Patriots are going to test them, with Ridley and either Bolden or Danny Woodhead (who had 15 carries against Baltimore) depending upon matchups.

PROOF THAT PEYTON MANNING COULD PROBABLY CUT IT AS A 'SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE' CAST MEMBER
You'd think it might bother Eli Manning that his big brother is better at both football and comedy, but then again, whenever he's feeling blue he can just casually mention to Peyton that he has twice as many Super Bowl rings and instantly feel much better about himself. (Sorry I had to bring that up.) Anyway, Peyton was a far better host on SNL than Eli or Tom Brady for that matter -- heck, he could probably do a better President Obama than Fred Armisen ever did. Hulu doesn't let you imbed the clip of Peyton's greatest performance on Saturday Night Live, so here's the link to that. The video above is a collection of Manning's best commercials -- yes, he's a better pitchman than he's brother, too, something of which we'll be reminded of with every single break in the action Sunday.

GRIEVANCE OF THE WEEK:
No grievance this week. I am without grievance, I suppose, unless you want to revisit this, my plea for some among you to actually enjoy that three-hour block on Sunday when you get to watch this team. I do have a question, however, that may cause some disagreement: Is Terrell Davis a Hall of Famer? The former Broncos running back (1995-2001) is on the ballot again this year, and he's a fascinating case. He played just seven seasons -- and was healthy for just four, really -- totally 77 games over the entirety of his career. Yet he was the star, more so than even John Elway, of a pair of Super Bowl champions, and in the span from 1995-97, when Denver was a team you wished the Patriots could somehow become, he ran for 5,246 yards and 49 touchdowns -- in three years! I know he wasn't transcendent like Gale Sayers, another wonderful offensive player whose career was abbreviated to 68 games by injuries, but Davis was more than a flash. He was brilliant. I'd vote for him. You?

PREDICTION, ALSO KNOWN AS "JOSH McDANIELS WILL BE OUT FOR REVENGE ... REVENGE!"
It's barely an exaggeration to say the Patriots offensive coordinator and former Broncos head coach is about as popular in Denver as Eric Mangini is in New England. He got on their bad side by trading Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall, deals that in retrospect prove he knew more than they did. Drafting Tim Tebow in the first round in 2010, ahead of the likes of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, probably isn't quite so forgivable, and maybe there was something to the notion that the hubris that came from McDaniels's association with Bill Belichick was off-putting. So it's a bit surprising that in the buildup to this game, there hasn't been much revisiting of the McDaniels era in the Denver media, at least from what I've seen so far. Either way, we know McDaniels, who won his first six games as Broncos coach but was fired before his second season was through in part because of a videotaping scandal, will have revenge as a motive Sunday -- hell, it's human nature. The Patriots' offense will make their coordinator look as smart as the Broncos believed he was when they first hired him. Patriots 45, Broncos 24

(Last week's prediction: Patriots 30, Bills 20. Final score: Patriots 52, Bills 28. Season record: 2-2.)

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

The reminder is probably unnecessary and even unwelcome, but it's relevant to this discussion since it is one that has come around for the Patriots and their fans a couple of times in the past half-decade or so:

No matter how talented a football team you have, it is extremely difficult to win a Super Bowl. (Let alone three, or four, or five ...) An unfortunate bounce here, a receiver catching the ball by clamping it to his helmet there, and the confetti that was supposed to rain down on your head is falling on the other, victorious side.

That disclaimer aside, I can tell you this: After watching a screening of "Cleveland '95: A Football Life,'' the latest installment of NFL Films' extraordinary documentary series that premieres on the NFL Network at 8 p.m. Wednesday, I'm almost certain the Browns under coach Bill Belichick would have won at least one Super Bowl and probably more had everything remained in place during his time there.

Of course, you know it played out differently, a story of greed, desperation, and abandonment so ugly that it became instant sports legend. Nothing remained in place other than a jilted, devastated fan base. Word of debt-ridden owner Art Modell's heartless plan to move Cleveland's cherished Browns to Baltimore leaked out during the 1995 season, Belichick's doomed final year among his five as the franchise's head coach.

The result over the rest of the promising season -- Sports Illustrated had picked the Browns to go to the Super Bowl -- was escalating chaos fueled by fan anger, resulting in a toxic lame-duck situation unprecedented in professional sports. It was hopeless.

"I felt bad for the team and the players and the coaches who were working so hard with less than no support,'' Belichick says. "The owner was nowhere to be found. He was in Baltimore. You kind of felt like you were on a deserted island, fending for yourself."

As you might have guessed, this film isn't exactly a warm eulogy for the recently deceased Modell. Nor should it be. He fled the city before taking his team with him, unaccountable to the end. Belichick, as we are reminded with some downright eerie final-game footage, was left behind as a victim of the misguided wrath, receiving death threats and being hanged in effigy in the stadium parking lot. Jim Schwartz, the current Lions coach who was on Belichick's remarkably talented staff at the time, remembers his work being interrupted multiple times a day by bomb threats.

The team collapsed under the weight of it all, and during the final home game, on Dec. 17, 1995, the stadium was in effect torn apart around them, with fans bringing hammers and saws into the ancient venue to take a memento with them. What they didn't want was discarded onto the field during the game.

"I personally never felt threatened,'' Belichick recalls. "But it certainly was not like a normal home game.''

Ozzie Newsome, the legendary Browns tight end and current Ravens general manager who was breaking into coaching on Belichick's staff, summed up the hopelessness of it all: "It's hard enough to win with no distractions in this league. When you have a distraction like that, you've got no chance. No chance.''

Seventeen years after the Browns' departure, it's still impossible not to sympathize with Cleveland, which was awarded an expansion team, retained its name and records, but hasn't made any meaningful history since. But for a Patriots fan, there is another truth in the subtext: All of the great things that have happened here since Belichick's arrival in 2000 never would have been had Modell not moved the Browns and scapegoated his coach.

The Patriots were blessed because of Cleveland's loss. Belichick had a plan there that was aborted by factors beyond his control. In New England, he proved he had the right ideas.

The film, flawlessly executed with that familiar, irresistible NFL Films formula of gorgeous video, miked-up personnel, and candid interviews, leaves little doubt that great things were on the verge of happening in Cleveland. The behind-the-scenes footage of Belichick's early days as head coach are the closest a Patriots fan will ever come to seeing the Patriots on "Hard Knocks.''

In one early scene, Mike Lombardi, the Browns' player personnel director under Belichick who is now a respected analyst on the NFL Network, talks about his boss's attention to detail, specifically how he wanted a writeup of every single opposing player --"not how I would write it up, how he wanted it written up.''

The film then cuts to footage of Belichick (who apparently favored Mizuno shirts and hideous pastel-highlighted sweaters in those days) and Lombardi sitting in an office, presumably in 1991, going over the personnel of that week's opponent.

"Before we get into the X's and O's,'' Belichick tells him, "we're going through each player. Strengths, weaknesses, overall physical abilities, what his history is, speed, you know, all that [expletive]."

Lombardi offers an eager medley of criticism on a couple of players. "I'm not sure this guy's got enough arm strength left to play,'' he says of one.

"OK, so that's a typical report right there,'' said Belichick, his eyes smiling. "Everybody on their team stinks, nobody has any athletic ability, so unless the coaches [expletive] this game up, there's no way we could lose."

In retrospect, it's surprising that while building his program, it took Belichick until his fourth season to have a winning record. His coaching and personnel staffs were stacked with future stars, with nine future NFL head coaches or GMs and three successful college coaches on his staff.

"What was Bill looking for in people?" recalled Newsome. "Bill was looking for Bill. And he found a lot of little Bills.''

Alabama coach Nick Saban was his defensive coordinator for four years. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz was plucked from the University of Maine to oversee the offensive line. Schwartz, Newsome, Tom Dimitroff, Eric Mangini, and Scott Pioli were among the self-proclaimed "slappies'' who got their first break from Belichick, much the way Belichick had been given a break by Colts coach Ted Marchibroda in 1975. (Included is some outstanding footage of a very young Belichick lurking on the Colts sideline, holding a clipboard and various colored pens.)

Among the film's most mesmerizing scenes is one in a coaches room in which the respect and trust between Belichick and his staff is evident. Saban -- skinny, bespectacled, and apparently willing then to make eye contact with other human beings -- laments to Belichick about how that week's opponent had beaten them in a previous meeting:

Saban: "I mean, if we don't play our [expletives] off, they'll beat us."

Belichick: "Oh, I agree.We've got to do everything we can to get our team to the highest level we can this week. Pull out all the [expletive] stops, no matter what they are."

Saban: "And I'll tell you what. We may not have had a very good plan, but we had [expletive] preparation the last time we played these guys."

Belichick: "No question."

His coaches were permitted such candor if they had his respect, so they strove desperately to earn it. Newsome, who has been an outstanding general manager in Baltimore, said the lessons he learned from Belichick were applied during his first draft with the Ravens in 1996.

Modell wanted running back Lawrence Phillips in the first round, a troubled, talented player who fit a need. But Newsome remembered Belichick's first rule of draft day: Always stick to your board and take the best player. He chose the player tops on his board, UCLA tackle Jonathan Ogden, with the fourth pick, then at No. 26 selected Miami linebacker Ray Lewis. Combined, they made 24 Pro Bowls -- Lewis could make another one or two on reputation -- and they will be reunited in Canton someday.

Newsome and so many others on that staff learned their lessons well. It's less certain that Modell ever did. When "Cleveland '95: A Football Life'' is complete, his legacy is more complicated than before. Stealing the Browns from Cleveland still stands as his cruelest move. But his dumbest? Not taking Belichick with him.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Man, I've been there. I know, I remember, what it's like to get frustrated -- irrationally so -- about a team for which you cheer each Sunday with high expectations and a low tolerance for perceived underachievement.

After a 28-10 loss to the Packers during the 2002 season, when I worked at a different newspaper and scarcely masked how much I cared about the local teams, I remember writing a column imploring the Patriots -- the defending champion Patriots -- to cut a young running back who had failed to pursue a fumble that eventually stood up as a crucial play in the game.

In retrospect, I'm glad Bill Belichick wasn't a Concord Monitor subscriber. Knowing how heavily influenced he is by us media goofs, I'd have hated to be responsible for him cutting Kevin Faulk four seasons into his wonderful career.

Of course, I still have my small grievances and recurring complaints. I'm becoming convinced that Patrick Chung, someone I've hoped could be the defense's hard-hitting center fielder since he got here in 2009, is just good enough to be in position to not make a play. But my concerns in watching this extraordinary football team, one that has had an unfathomable run of success in the salary cap era, are based on mounting evidence, not hyperbole, gathered over the span of weeks rather than a lousy half-hour of football.

And that's where I differ from a lot of Patriots fans I've been hearing from lately. I will never understand the rush to be the first to declare that run over, to go over-the-top caterwauling with equal measures of entitlement and ignorance about this team that is still on the short list of Super Bowl favorites.

I recognize that some missed opportunities -- the two Super Bowl losses to the Giants, and the difficult-to-justify loss to the Colts in the '06 AFC Championship game -- have added a layer of cynicism or skepticism. They've been stuck on three Lombardi Trophies for seven seasons. There could have been more, and there should have been, and there will always be that tinge of regret.

But the complaints about this team seem to be unfiltered this year, more bitter and demanding in tone. I think I hit my personal tipping point during Friday's chat when one reader asked me to "talk me off the ledge'' about this team. The ledge? The fewest games they've won since 2001 is nine -- and that was 10 years ago.

And I officially tipped over Sunday when I filled in as the host for the in-game chat. The negativity when the Patriots fell behind by seven points in the first half floored me -- I took a survey at halftime and 68 percent thought the Patriots would lose the game.

Sixty-eight percent. I know it's just a small sampling of Patriots fans ... but 68 percent?

I'm not saying it should have been all happy-happy, joy-joy, with visions of unicorns, puppy dogs and Lombardi Trophies dancing in our heads as we zipped to the fridge at halftime. They played like the Chiefs in the first half -- the Saints, even. They wasted golden opportunities on turnovers. But we've seen this movie before -- perform sluggishly by their standards in the first half, adjust, destroy opponent in the second half, take the win and move on.

And yet the cynicism -- the downright anger -- was such that I found myself moderating comments such as these:

BB will make an example of somebody on Monday "if" they fall. Maybe McCourty gets cut

Devin McCourty is a bright, thoughtful, talented kid who is probably too honest about his confidence issues and had a brutal second season. He was also has had such success in this league that he was named All-Pro as a rookie. You don't cut that guy. You repair him.

what is most disgusting is that the Pats seem to accept their fate..no fire in the belly

This one came after Gronk's first-half fumble ... in which he coughed up the ball after trying to gain an extra yard or two, something he does as well as anyone in football. Yes, he played the first half like he was still wearing the Hulk Hands from his ESPN photo shoot. But he redeemed himself. Seems like a character trait that most of his teammates have as well.

enough of the apologies - these are very highly paid paid players- nothing less than excellence and incredible effort is acceptable

The Bills are paid, too. They gave up 45 points in the second half. I hope their checks bounce. That'll show 'em.

it's amazing how the patriots can look as bad as the red sox.

The only thing the 2012 Patriots have in common with the 2012 Red Sox is a single-digit win total in September.

here is an interesting fact.... Brady started dating Giselle in the winter of 2007... the pats haven't won a super bowl since...

Right, because Tara Reid was a WINNAH. Actually, Tara Reid may have written this ... with ink made of Bridget Moynahan's blood!

No receiver worth his weight on the roster, except Welker. Welker is in downward spiral and will be with another team next year. What is the matter with Grankowski? no much effort there. ... Grab a fan from the crowd and they would be a better player !!!

Nope. Not even if Bob Gladieux was at the game.

Pats will struggle to win 6 games this year

OK, I ... It's just ... I ... six. Six wins ... [Deep breath] ... OK, I'm going to give this a shot: It's tempting to say they'll have six wins by the end of this month, but I'll be conservative here and say they have six wins by Nov. 11. They have Denver this Sunday, then at Seattle, home against the national punch-line known as the Jets, and then at the Rams to close out October. Then there's the bye week, and the Bills again on the 11th. They could lose to Peyton Pennington and the Broncos, since he might be capable of exposing their safety issues, and at Seattle is a tough game even with the real refs. But they're winning at least 4 of the next 5, which puts them at 6-3.

So I ask, Mr. or Ms. Six Wins: WHAT INSPIRES YOU TO WRITE THIS STUFF?

The SB loser curse seems to be in effect.

Shut up, you.

no passion, no fire

Shut up, YOU.

The problems start and end with Belichek ... he owns this team and it might be time to realize his genius is past.

All right, that's enough. Way too much, actually. But sheesh, talk about first-world problems. With Belichick, whose scheme is outdated despite 136 wins since the beginning of the 2001 season and 27 the past two years, and Brady, who isn't the player he was in '07, and McCourty, who should be cut, and Welker, who is being phased out, and Gronk who partied away his mojo with actresses over the summer, somehow they dropped 42 points in the second half, scored 52, lead the NFL in points scored, have lost two games by a total of three points to teams that are combined 7-1, and they've done it without Aaron Hernandez, arguably the most versatile offensive player in the league.

Yep, it's a mess. But it's nothing Rex Ryan couldn't fix. Now there's a coach.

All right, now I'm getting hyperbolic. It's apparently contagious. Listen, I get the negativity to some extent. I do. Overreaction is part of being a fan. Maybe griping about this team helps you blow off steam after a long week at work or a long morning of apple picking against your will.

I've been there. But this is too much. You've got it so good, and some of you -- not all by any stretch, but a vocal some -- seem to take it for granted.

Maybe I'm too sentimental or sappy, but whenever I arrive at Gillette Stadium on game day and walk through the hordes of tailgaters in the parking lot, grilling food that I'm tempted to steal if only I had breakaway speed, I remember it's a privilege to be there at this particular place and time, covering this team. And that's me, a sports writer, miserable by law if not nature.

I know -- you pay those those prices -- for tickets, a jersey, a parking space a mile down Rt. 1, whatever -- and you're entitled to do what you want. Of course. That's the fan's prerogative. But you know why you still pay those prices? Because it's a damn good thing they have going, and it's worth it.

The defense is fast and young. The offense is as well-rounded as it has ever been, including 2007. There are a couple of intriguing running backs. Brady is playing brilliantly. Dante Scarnecchia is piecing together another good line. Brandon Lloyd has added another element to the passing game.

I don't care that they're 2-2. This is a more talented team than the one that was a play or two from winning the Super Bowl.

Here's what really stinks. Someday, the naysayers will be right. There's going to be a time when Belichick has retired to become a hoodie model and the quarterback is distinguished Senator Brady or retired to a private beach in Costa Rica or both, and some rudimentary passer, probably named Ryan, is going to be quarterbacking this team. They'll be something far less than what they are now, and the search for things to complain about will be fruitful.

If you need misery to be fulfilled, look up Marc Wilson on pro-football-reference.com some time. But damn, think for yourselves, and maintain perspective. Enjoy this team while you have it.

Maybe some of you learned that lesson in the second half. That halftime poll I harangued you about earlier in which 68 percent thought the Patriots would lose?

It was down to 61 percent by the game's end.

I'll count that as progress.

@GlobeChadFinn

Stop by at 1 p.m. on Sunday to talk Patriots-Bills throughout the game in Buffalo.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

I'll be writing a conventional Patriots column after every game this season. So I figured that to preview the game each week, I'd try something a little less conventional and yet still in the spirit of the serious-but-lighthearted, often-nostalgic prism with which TATB has always viewed sports. So here is the fourth installment of what we're calling the Unconventional Preview. Hope you have as much fun reading it as I have putting it together.

THREE PLAYERS OTHER THAN TOM BRADY THAT I'LL BE WATCHING:
1. Mario Williams: He was high on the wish-list of a lot Patriots fans this offseason when he entered free agency, and given his age (27), football pedigree (No. 1 overall pick in 2006) and production (53 career sacks entering this season), coveting him as the player who would finally replace Willie McGinest all these years later made sense. Instead, he signed with Buffalo on a six-year deal with $50 million guaranteed, and while he has just 1.5 sacks, watching him battle Nate Solder at left tackle will be an interesting sidelight to the game. He's a great player, but I'm still left with a question, Patriots fans: Would you rather have Williams for the next six years, or Chandler Jones?

2. Wes Welker: For all of the drama about his role this season, the Patriots' slot receiver has still been very productive, with 16 receptions for 251 yards. (He still awaiting his first TD.) Of course, the Bills could be excused if those numbers don't look particularly impressive to them, since Welker's output thus far through three games essentially mirrors what he put up in a single game against the Bills last year. Welker went 16-217-2 in Buffalo's Week 3 victory, then had six catches in limited time in the Patriots' Week 17 win. The Bills couldn't stop him last year. Josh McDaniels would be wise to make a note of that Sunday.

3. Jairus Byrd: Why Jairus Byrd? Well, because he's a ballhawk at safety for the Bills, but mostly because he's the son of former defensive back Gill Byrd, and that tidbit gives me a semi-justifiable reason to shoehorn the wildly entertaining 1980s San Diego Chargers into this column for the third week in a row. OK, I'll stop.*

*-- At least until next week.

WILL THE REAL DEVIN McCOURTY PLEASE STAND UP? (AND MAYBE CATCH THE DAMN BALL WHILE YOU'RE AT IT?)
I honestly don't know what to make of the third-year defensive back at this point. Do you? He had a superb rookie season, probably the best any rookie Patriots cornerback has had save for Mike Haynes in '76, proving steady in coverage, tackling well for his position, and repeatedly demonstrating a knack for coming away with the ball. (The interception he ripped out of Percy Harvin's hands might have been his definitive play of the season.) McCourty second season was whatever the opposite of superb is. He was a mess, and the bright, introspective McCourty admitted as much. So here we are in the pivotal Year 3, the rubber-match in determining exactly what he is as a player. He appeared to have the goat horns attached to his helmet after the 31-30 loss to the Ravens committing a crucial pass interference penalty, dropping a pair of potential picks, and drawing such constant attention from Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco in the fourth quarter that he might as well have aimed a laser pointer at him before throwing the ball. Yet my colleague Greg Bedard, whose work I respect endlessly, wrote after watching the film that "this was [McCourty's] best game in some time with four pass breakups, a pass defensed, and another good pass coverage." And you have to admit that had he held on to just one of the potential picks, the perception of his performance would be completely different. McCourty had his issues with the Bills' Stevie Johnson last year. I'm not sure what to make of him right now because of the contradictions of his play. I guess we'll just wait for more evidence one way or the other to be compiled Sunday.

BOOKS WRITTEN 1, BOOKS READ 0
You know, I'd actually read this. I like Carucci, who I presume made sure there were punctuation marks at the end of sentences and that there actually were sentences, and Smerlas, who was one hell of a football player, does have his fleeting moments of genuine humor and insight. Also: I'll bet you the cover price that he still wears that shirt today. The pants he gave to Ordway.

PAT SUMMERALL REFERRING TO STEVE GROGAN'S ALL-PRO-CALIBER SEASON? YEAH, YOU'RE GONNA WATCH THAT
Did you see that little lollipop Grogan threw to Russ Francis with four guys around him? That was Grogan in a nutshell, but it was also a reminder that Francis was ahead of his time. He was an extraordinarily talented football player -- All-World, some might say -- and yet he never had more than 41 receptions in a season with the Pats. Imagine the numbers he'd put up in this offense and era. My dad always insisted he was better than Kellen Winslow Sr. Francis is just 59. Maybe TE-hoarder Bill Belichick can bring him in to replace Kellen Winslow Jr.

GRIEVANCE OF THE WEEK Know what? I don't have one, at least relative to the current state of the game. The real officials are back on the job, and it's such a universally joyous occasion after that Monday night clown show in Seattle that Walt Coleman would probably get a standing ovation in Oakland right now. All is well right up until the moment when they remind us that they too have sporadic fits of incompetence on any given Sunday. (By the way, have all the preening, "oh-I'll-just-casually-flex-here-while-I-explain-this-call-in-unnecessary-detail" gun shows jacked up Ed Hochuli's Q-rating or what? I don't know if I heard another official mentioned by name during the lockout. He's the face of the zebras.)

COMPLETELY RANDOM FOOTBALL CARD: OK, I guess this is kind of a grievance, at least an ongoing or recurring one. Former Bills receiver Andre Reed is nominated for the Pro Football Hall of Fame for the seventh time, joining 127 other candidates, among them ex-Patriots Smerlas, Drew Bledsoe, Ben Coates, and Stanley Morgan, none of whom seems likely to be a finalist, let alone an inductee. Reed has been a finalist for the past six years, but he's been caught in that backlog at the position that includes Tim Brown, Sterling Sharpe and Cris Carter. Reed, who was essential to the K-Gun offense on the Bills' four Super Bowl teams, finished his 16-year career with 951 receptions, 13,198 yards, and 87 touchdowns. While he doesn't have a 100-reception season -- it was a different era, folks -- and wasn't the flashiest player, I think of him as the Tim Raines to Jerry Rice's Rickey Henderson, a truly great player who was overshadowed and unsung because his career overlapped with the greatest ever. Here's hoping seven proves his lucky number, because Andre Reed belongs in Canton.

DURING A WEEK IN WHICH A HAIL MARY DECIDED A GAME, IT'S ONLY RIGHT TO DISCUSS DOUG FLUTIE
I've always figured the mutual admiration between Flutie, who spent his 20th professional season as a Patriot, and Bill Belichick came down to two things: 1, Belichick's appreciation of NFL history and unconventional, successful players, and 2, Flutie's mastery of the obvious in knowing that Tom Brady was one quarterback behind whom he deserved to sit. I'll always wonder against whom Flutie holds the biggest grudge. Mike Ditka? Raymond Berry? Wade Phillips? Bum Phillips for siring Wade? Mrs. Phillips for not feigning a headache that fateful night? Rob Johnson? Rob Johnson's bandanna? This is my roundabout way of saying that "Doug Flutie: A Football Life" is long overdue.

PREDICTION, ALSO KNOWN AS "I THOUGHT BRIAN MOORMAN HAD A LIFETIME CONTRACT."
The Bills' defensive line is fierce, Stevie Johnson and Fred Jackson (who may or may not be healthy enough to be effective) are well-established as Patriots pests, and it would be foolish to count this victory before it has hatched given Buffalo's 34-31 win in Week 3 last year. Buffalo is the second-best team in the AFC East. Unfortunately for them, they're playing the best Sunday, and Tom Brady and the Patriots aren't about to fall to 1-3. Patriots 30, Bills 20

(Last week's prediction: Patriots 20, Ravens 17. Final score: Ravens 31, Patriots 30. Season record: 1-2. And suddenly, I'm realizing that my final record will probably be identical the Patriots' record. I'm cool with that.)

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

I figured we'd find the explanation in the All-22 game film, learn frame-by-frame that Rob Gronkowski's exclusion as a featured receiver during the Patriots' 31-30 loss to the Ravens Sunday was justified based on circumstances.

The Patriots' dynamic tight end is such an effective blocker that he would have a secure spot in the NFL even if he were merely an adequate receiver rather than an exceptional one. That aspect of his game the reason that the who's-better? debate between Gronk and the Saints' Jimmy Graham really is no debate at all.

If Gronkowski stays healthy -- yeah, I hate that qualifier too, but it's necessary at that particular position in this particular sport with his particular style of play -- he has a chance to be the greatest tight end in league history. Heck, 35 regular-season games and 29 touchdowns into his career, he's already in the argument.

Gronk The Blocker is sometimes necessary and, of course, absolutely no fun, because it prevents us from witnesses one of our favorite recurring football joys -- watching him destroy defensive backs like he was produced by Michael Bay en route to the end zone, leading to another celebration in which you're almost certain is usually prefaced by him mouthing the self-encouraging words, "THIS TIME ROB GRONK SPIKE FOOTBALL THROUGH GROUND!!"

But because of his ability to assist the offensive line in its sporadically successful quest to keep Tom Brady from being spindled, folded and mutilated, there will be times when his blocking takes precedence over his duties as a receiver. We get it.

But as it turned out, the truth was revealed before the All-22 became available, and it wasn't within a Hail Mary pass of what you expected. My colleague Greg Bedard noted in the essential Wednesday analysis column he writes after watching the game again that Gronkowski "didn't pass block that much at all." Mike Reiss drew the same conclusion with numbers at ESPN Boston: Of the Patriots offense's 49 snaps, Gronkowski stayed in to protect just 16 times.

In other words, he ran 33 routes, and was targeted on the following plays:

• 9:45 second quarter: T.Brady pass short left to R.Gronkowski to NE 24 for 9 yards (E.Reed, J.McClain).
• 1:37 second quarter: T.Brady (shotgun) pass short right to R.Gronkowski to NE 31 for 12 yards (D.Ellerbe, B.Pollard).
• 2:06 fourth quarter: T.Brady (shotgun) pass incomplete short right to R.Gronkowski (B.Pollard, P.Kruger).

That's it. Three targets, two receptions, 21 yards.

That's the same number of targets and catches as Deion Branch. That's one more target and catch than Kellen Winslow Jr., who had been with the team less than a week. It's one more catch than Michael Hoomanawanui, whose name I may have actually spelled right there.

It's one more catch -- and 15 fewer touches -- than Danny Woodhead, and two fewer receptions, four fewer touches, and four fewer targets than Julian Edelman, the undersized, limited, semi-useful role players who have apparently become Josh McDaniels's new favorite toys in some weird quest to add additional degrees of difficulty to the Patriots' offense. Perhaps he thinks the AFC East is now a 6-feet-and-under division?

Thirty-three routes run. Three targets. And that follows the Week 2 loss to the Cardinals in which he had two first-half targets before the Patriots took him out of the garage when the game was in doubt. You see Gronk at the Dunkin' Donuts drive-thru more often these days than you do with the football on Sundays.

That has to change. Unless Gronk is still experiencing some lingering effects of the ankle injury that in effect cost the Patriots a fourth Super Bowl -- he's healthy, they win, and it's that simple -- there's no excuse not to emphasize him more, even to the point of forcing the ball his way from time to time. He's the best weapon the Patriots have. He's arguably the best weapon any team has. He's often open when he's covered. Throw it his way, throw it high, and he'll be dragging helpless defensive backs toward the end zone like a dad horsing around with the neighborhood kids just as he did last year, when he had 90 catches for 1,327 yards and 17 touchdowns.

I recognize that there's only one football to go around. Gronk's limited role thus far can be justified to some degree when it's Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd -- who combined for 17 catches for 250 yards Sunday -- who are targeted instead. Both are outstanding players, though I could spend another 1,000 words on the attempted marginalization of Welker. But when Gronkowski is an afterthought to Woodhead and Edelman, well, that's as damn frustrating as anything unrelated to the replacement officials that has happened to the Patriots season.

You, me, and Chad Jackson know the Patriots offense is complicated. McDaniels is making it too much so. Edelman and Woodhead are fine complementary players. Give 'em a well-placed couple of plays. But jeez, don't make it more complicated than it needs to be. Rob Gronkowski is on your side, and the opposition is grateful every time you forget that.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

Maybe the language could have been more elegant, but the point had to be made, and it was, effectively. It's doubtful anyone on either sideline of the ferocious Patriots-Ravens rivalry would dispute that the prolonged two-syllable chant by those in attendance at M&T Bank Stadium Sunday nailed the sentiment regarding the sham Roger Goodell and those he serves are perpetrating on the league with these hapless, helpless replacement officials.

You only wish someone with some clout said the same thing, on the record, and with the same bluntness. Brandon Spikes had the right idea with his instantly legendary tweet Sunday night, but he could be easily dismissed by Goodell's minions as a loose cannon who left his credibility on Chatroulette.

Sure, to rip the abysmal guessing game disguised as NFL officiating Sunday -- and every week of this young season so far -- might have made Tom Brady look like a sore loser in the moments after a maddening-for-many-reasons 31-30 loss to the Ravens Sunday night, and he does have an image to protect.

But just think what a few words of blunt criticism of the league -- hell, even if he chose eloquence over vulgarity -- from a player of his magnitude might finally push this charade to the tipping point. Instead, we're stuck with the constant reminder that Ed Hochuli was actually quite competent once you got past the preening.

Instead, Brady, ever the diplomat even when his eyes are burning with fury, sidestepped a postgame query about the refereeing by saying he can only worry about doing his job. Bill Belichick directed all postgame questions about the refs to the refs, though he made his feelings clear before he left the field when he grabbed one and appeared to offer some choice commentary.

It was an unbecoming display, and it was a reminder that we should sympathize with the refs to some degree. They've been put into a position to do a job for which they are unqualified and incapable. But there will be more scenes of furious coaches accosting puzzled, saucer-eyed officials every single week until this thing is settled. This is at critical mass, the product is compromised, and even the hard-liners who want to prolong this to break the union must know it. I mean, they do, right? Tell me they do. Would Bob Kraft be a hypocrite if he paid the inevitable five-figure fine coming down from Goodell on Belichick's behalf? Geez, if he'd just do the right thing here ...

It's not the officials' fault that the Patriots return to Foxborough with a 1-2 record, and I probably should have acknowledged that a few paragraphs ago. There seems to be almost an inevitability that these teams will meet again with something bigger at stake, and the Patriots got another reminder that the Ravens are the tough rival the Jets think they are.

The Ravens exposed some flaws in the Patriots -- the pass rush was nonexistent, and relatedly, Devin McCourty was absolutely dismantled by Joe Flacco, who completed 71.8 percent of his passes for 382 yards and led four touchdown drives of at least 80 yards.

Offensively, Tom Brady had a tremendous game considering the relentlessness of the opponent, but Josh McDaniels continues to get cute at the expense of effectiveness and efficiency. Role players Julian Edelman and Danny Woodhead had featured roles while Rob Gronkowski was targeted just three times. At least Wes Welker (eight catches, 142 yards) wasn't marginalized this week. There will be a lot of Chicken Little stuff this week, but this team is going to be fine.

Whether we can say the same about the league as a whole in 2012 remains to be seen, though of course we'll tune in no matter what, something Goodell is banking on. But this is not the NFL, not as we know it and love it. It's entertaining, in its current haphazard way, but it's not the same game that carries us through each fall. The disjointed and inept officiating is altering the game in ways that cannot be predicted. You simply hope they get it wrong in the favor of the team for which you're rooting.

To put it another way: there were 24 penalties called for 218 yards, with 11 accounting for a first down ... and yet for all of the yellow flags, they had absolutely no control over the behavior of the players. Logan Mankins and Haloti Ngata are probably still standing at midfield taking turns headbutting each other as we speak.

The rest of us, we're left banging our heads, waiting for the officials and the integrity of the game to return.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

As one of the cool duties that comes with that new byline up there, I'll be writing a conventional Patriots column after every game this season. So I figured that to preview the game each week, I'd try something a little less conventional and yet still in the spirit of the serious-but-lighthearted, often-nostalgic prism with which TATB has always viewed sports. So here is the third installment of what we're calling the Unconventional Preview. Hope you have as much fun reading it as I have putting it together.

THREE PLAYERS OTHER THAN TOM BRADY AND BILL BELICHICK BINKY ED REED THAT I'LL BE WATCHING:
1. Ray Rice: Yeah, it's just two games, but when you hold former 2,000-yard runner CHRIS JOHNSON to 4 measly yards in the opener and enter Week 3 allowing just 2.6 yards per carry, it's understandable to be very encouraged about the Patriots run defense. (And defense as a whole, really: It's currently ranked second in the league to Houston in yards allowed.) But the Patriots may not face a more dangerous running back than they do this week. The Ravens' Ray Rice, who ran for 1,364 yards and 12 touchdowns a season ago, is off to a terrific start this year, with 167 yards (6.4 per carry) and a pair of scores. If the Patriots can hold him in check, the run defense will deserve every accolade it gets.

2. BERNARD POLLARD: Because you've always got to keep an eye on him when he plays the Patriots, that's why. Don't make me talk about it anymore.

3. KELLEN WINSLOW JR.: I know, he's said ("I'm a soldier!") and done (purchasing a dirt bike -- not a good idea) some regrettable things. And while he's had a respectable career, with four seasons of at least 75 receptions, he's never lived up to his surname, tight end pedigree, or billing as the sixth pick in the 2004 draft. Yet I kind of root for him -- his dad was one of my all-time favorite players, and yes, this is an excuse to shoehorn in a card of an Air Coryell Charger for the second week in a row. But also because he is one tough dude, playing on a knee that would have many players on injured reserve or angling for an analyst job on one of the networks. Perhaps he'll be a factor filling in for Aaron Hernandez -- he did have 75 catches last year -- or perhaps he's just here as insurance. But I'm glad he's here. He was a knucklehead as a young player who grew up into a dedicated, respected professional. I never thought Kellen Winslow Jr. would be one of those guys, but he is, and you can never have enough of them around.

COMPLETELY RANDOM FOOTBALL CARDS, AND FURTHER EVIDENCE THAT CARDS OF COACHES ARE NEVER A GOOD IDEA
Bill Belichick, looking not at all awkward (nope not at all) in 1992 as the coach of the team that would steal away to Baltimore ...

... but not looking nearly as goofy as the charming if overmatched coach of the Patriots at the time.

HELLO, MY NAME IS STERLING MOORE. I PLAY CORNERBACK FOR THE PATRIOTS. NICE TO MEET YOU TOO. NOW HOW ABOUT GIVING ME SOME #*$@&% CREDIT? This can also double as my grievance of the week, I suppose. It's astounding to me that so many media members habitually refer to a particular, pivotal late play in the 2011 AFC Championship Game as a drop. Lee Evans did not drop that pass. Sterling Moore knocked it out of his hands. It wasn't Evans pulling a Jackie Smith, as it has so often been portrayed leading up this rematch -- it was Moore making a clutch, smart, athletic play at a precise moment when the Patriots' defense needed one if they were going to play one more game. I'm not sure whether calling it a drop -- and there are 302,000 results for "Lee Evans drop" on Google -- is laziness, faulty memory, or just a disingenuous way to emphasize how close the Patriots were to losing that game. But watch the video. It wasn't a drop. It was a hell of a play by Sterling Moore, and it should be remembered that way. Though I do suppose Lee Evans might have had 302,000 drops in his career.

BESIDES MY COLLEAGUE CHRIS GASPER'S GEM, THREE OTHER TREMENDOUS COLUMNS WRITTEN ABOUT STEVE SABOL THIS WEEK
I had the chance to talk to Sabol, the affable NFL Films mastermind who died of cancer Tuesday, just once, back in September 2010, when I was a newbie on the media beat and he was less than a year from learning he was ill. As someone who, like most football fans, has long been mesmerized and influenced by countless NFL Films productions and programs ("The Brady 6,'' the ones featuring '70s free-thinkers Fred Dryer and Tim Rossovitch, and a look back at the famous Chargers-Dolphins playoff game are among my favorites) it was a privilege to talk to him. And he was exactly as he seemed on the air -- engaging, enthusiastic, and a fountain of anecdotes and information. I wish I got to talk to him more, but I feel fortunate to have done it once.

Some superb remembrances:

Richard Sandomir, The New York Times.
N.F.L. Loses Steve Sabol, Its Loving Filmmaker
"Sabol was an eternal youth and an auteur. He stood always on the edge of childlike joy knowing that all he did in his adult life was shape the image of the sport he loved. He did it with his father in a way that rival sports leagues envied but could not imitate."

Joe Posnanski, Sports on Earth
Masterpiece Theatre
"He really did help create today’s NFL essence. Much of it was subtle. The brilliant coach. The intense linebacker. The audacious quarterback. The indomitable runner. These are NFL Films themes. And it’s likely when you think back to a favorite NFL moment, you are really thinking back to how NFL Films framed that moment. When you think of the Immaculate Reception, you probably think of that blurry film of Franco Harris jogging and the ball floating, in slow motion, into his arms, as if by fate."

Jason Gay, Wall Street Journal
Football Loses Its Storyteller
"NFL Films could be bombastic, easy to satirize, but these qualities only seemed to make it more beloved. The older stuff is a pure blast. You watch an NFL Film from the 1970s and it's like being transported into an episode of "Starsky & Hutch"—you can practically smell the Brut and shag carpet.".

Speaking of NFL Films ...

REPORT: RAY LEWIS MIKED HIMSELF UP FOR AN ENTIRE SEASON AND FORCED NFL FILMS TO FOLLOW HIM AROUND
OK, maybe that's not quite how it went. But I wouldn't put it past Lewis, who may have more look-at-me tendencies than any defensive star since Deion Sanders. Heck, maybe Mark Gastineau.

I'm sure there was a time when the Ravens linebacker's habitual speechifying was genuine and natural and inspiring. But watching "Ray Lewis: A Football Life'' the other night, I was entertained -- his workout routine includes road cycling, which makes for a pretty unexpected visual -- and I gained some measure of respect for him. He does seem to try to be a good dad, though I don't believe it was ever acknowledged that his six kids are by four different mothers.

But I also came to this conclusion, one I've been on the verge of ever since his ridiculous dancing became a part of every NFL pregame show: He's completely full of it. He's an incredible, charismatic public speaker, but when you listen to what he's saying, he's really not saying anything at all. I'd love to know whether any of the students in the Harvard Law class he spoke to bought his explanation for his 2000 arrest in connection with a double murder outside a nightclub in Atlanta.

Explaining it away by saying there was no evidence probably isn't going to cut it in front of the Ridiculously Bright Future Prosecutors of America, you know?

PREDICTION, ALSO KNOWN AS "WHERE'S BILLY CUNDIFF WHEN YOU NEED HIM?"
Hard to expect anything other than a typical Patriots-Ravens battle -- in other words, it will be ferociously physical (probably more so with the replacement refs standing around in some combination of fear and awe and gulping down their whistles), Tom Brady will hang tough in the pocket behind that worrisome line long enough to make a couple of huge plays, Joe Flacco will alternately look terrific and Sanchezian, and it will come down to the final series, if not the final play. Put me down for a day of redemption for Stephen Gostkowski. Patriots 20, Ravens 17

(Last week's prediction: Patriots 37, Cardinals 14. Final score: Yeah, nothing close to that. Season record: 1-1.)

@GlobeChadFinn

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

There have been so many cherished memories to tuck away since 2001, so much to remember, rewind and replay that a Patriots fan's gauzy recollections may mislead from time to time, one highlight colliding and melding with the next. The Sabols can only document so much, you know? It's up to us to retain the rest, and even with some painful hiccups in recent years, we're blessed around here that there are so many impossibly great moments of which to keep track.

So it would be perfectly understandable if -- brace yourself for a goofy hypothetical -- that guy in the crisp blue No. 83 jersey the next tailgate over Sunday insisted that Wes Welker and Troy Brown were teammates for one very good year, perhaps two, possibly three, while your buddy in the red No. 80 throwback was adamant that the extraordinary slot receivers never shared space on the roster at all, being players of the same position, similar skill, and entirely separate seasons.

Yes, our personal recollections of time and place may vary, but the record does not lie, and so it is that pro-football-reference.com reminds us that Welker and Brown were teammates for one season and played together for precisely one game.

The year was 2007, the one of offensive brilliance, near perfection, and ultimate disappointment. It was Welker's first year in New England, having been the bounty in an intradivisional heist in which they stole the frequent Patriot nuisance from the inept Miami Dolphins for second- and seventh-round picks. It was also his first as a bona-fide star, his bond with Tom Brady almost immediate and stunningly effective. He caught a franchise-record 112 passes, breaking the mark set by Brown six years earlier.

For Brown, the season was his victory lap, essentially a season-long honorary roster spot for a player who wasn't ready to say goodbye and still had something to offer off the field if not on. He saw the field for one game, two days before Christmas, in a 28-7 win over the one-win Dolphins. He didn't catch a pass, but returned six punts, one for 28 yards (he fumbled another).

It was a respectful way to treat a franchise cornerstone in his final season, similar to how Kevin Faulk, the Brown of running backs, was treated last year.

Goofy hypothetical and hackneyed literary devices aside, most of us probably do remember that Brown and Welker were teammates for that single season. Brown's performance had actually begun to naturally decline before Welker arrived -- from 2003-06, his annual reception totals had landed between 17 and 43, and his greatest contribution to the '04 champs might have come as a Hank Poteat stunt double at defensive back -- but the succession plan was officially implemented in '07.

While much of the credit for their success goes to Brady, the relationships have been mutually beneficial. There's probably not a quarterback in league history who has been fortunate enough to have two such smart, talented, tough slot receivers in his huddle over the course of his full career. I imagine if Brady swapped his usual diplomacy for candor he would admit Welker is the superior receiver -- he does hold the top four spots on the franchise's single-season receptions list and set the yardage record last year with 1,569 -- though one wonders whether he might prefer Welker in October but Brown in January. As far as I know, no quarterback's supermodel wife ever criticized Brown's hands.

The similarities between Brown and Welker, the feats they've accomplished and the respect they've won, sure made for a strange juxtaposition Sunday. While Brown, who was inducted into the franchise's Hall of Fame Saturday, was treated like last year's homecoming king returning home from college to a warm reception and that old familiar revelry, Welker was inexplicably being marginalized. He might have spent Sunday as a wallflower on the Patriots' sideline had Aaron Hernandez not been knocked from the game on the offense's third play from scrimmage.

While he didn't play as many snaps as perennial project Julian Edelman, who started ahead of him for the second straight week, Welker was enough of a factor that, in a coincidental confluence of place and timing, he surpassed Brown's franchise record for career receptions. With five catches for 95 yards Sunday, he now has 562 receptions as a Patriot, five more in his five-plus seasons here than Brown had in 15 years.

It should have been cause for celebration. Instead, it was an afterthought, lost in the mire of an ugly 20-18 loss to the underestimated Cardinals and the controversy surrounding Welker's initial role as a bit player. After what I saw at Gillette Stadium Sunday, I do believe Welker is deliberately being marginalized.

I have absolutely no idea why.

If it's for purely a football reason, I wish Belichick would explain it -- right, good luck with that -- not only to hear the fascinating reasoning and to learn something, but because it was also put a halt to all of the conspiracy theories filling the airwaves and clogging my Twitter feed.

I refuse to believe Belichick would be so petty as to diminish Welker's playing time because of his contract status or his limited play in preseason or because he got hair plugs and endorsed adult diapers, or because of that damned drop in the Super Bowl.

But Belichick is not going to say much beyond the standard, "It is what it is. We do what's best for this football team,'' and so we're left trying to solve the mystery ourselves. That, too, tends to lead us down dead ends in the maze, where we find more contradictions than conclusions.

I do believe Belichick will recognize any subtle decline in Welker's skills long before you, me, or even Welker himself will, and maybe he's seen something.

I don't believe that Welker at 31 years old will decline much in one offseason from the receiver who had 22 more receptions than any other NFL player last season, who had those 1,500-plus yards, who had a career-high in yards per catch (12.9) and scored nine touchdowns.

I do believe they need him, desperately so with Hernandez on crutches, and diminishing the role of someone who seemingly gives them a better chance of winning now, in Tom Brady's age-35 season, is shortsighted even if it gives them a better read on whether Edelman is a worthy heir.

I don't believe that Welker will get the graceful farewell, that the stage has been set for him to move elsewhere just as Lawyer Milloy, Richard Seymour, Ty Law, Willie McGinest and many others did when their salaries exceeded their usefulness by Belichick's accounting.

I do believe, like Troy Brown before him, that he deserves one.

About three years from now.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

FOXBOROUGH – It wouldn’t be entirely accurate to suggest the Patriots’ offense fell into disarray the moment do-everything tight end Aaron Hernandez was knocked from an eventual, maddening 20-18 loss to the Arizona Cardinals with a right ankle injury.

After all, Hernandez’s injury, which looked immediately serious and familiar enough that one was quickly tempted to scan the Cardinals roster for nemesis Bernard Pollard’s name, occurred on the Patriots’ second possession and third play from scrimmage, just 6 minutes and 23 seconds into the game.

Even by that still-early point, the Patriots, who dropped an effortless 34 points on the Tennessee Titans a week ago, had already dropped a hint that it may be a jarringly disjointed performance by Tom Brady and the Patriots passing attack. On the very first play, Brady’s pass intended for Hernandez was tipped by Arizona defensive lineman Darnell Dockett and picked off by Patrick Peterson at the New England 36-yard-line. It’s not a safety on the first possession of the Super Bowl, but it was pretty ugly nonetheless.

Losing the essential Hernandez, who had by some accounts emerged as Brady’s top target in camp and is on a very short list of the most versatile offensive players in the NFL, had a significant impact on how the remaining 53:37 played out, though an advanced degree in football calculus might be required to gauge precisely how much his departure truly affected the game plan. Only Brady, coach Bill Belichick, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels know the extent to which their plans were foiled or altered by his injury, and Belichick wasn’t in the mood to elaborate – “I don’t know,’’ he said when asked that precise question. But Wes Welker, who understands the nuances of the game plan even as he’s apparently a diminishing part of it, offered a candid assessment.

"Yeah, absolutely [Hernandez’s injury affected the game plan],’’ said Welker, who had five receptions for 95 yards while surpassing halftime honoree and Patriots Hall of Fame inductee Troy Brown as the franchise’s all-time leader in receptions. “Aaron's in there almost every play. It changes quite a bit. You've got to go to a different attack. We didn't play the way we need to or execute the way we need to. It wasn't enough."

Hernandez’s injury occurred when teammate Julian Edelman, running behind Hernandez on a bubble screen along the left sideline, was tackled and rolled up the back of his teammate’s legs. Hernandez was in obvious pain, and the television replay revealed it to be reminiscent of the injury Rob Gronkowski suffered when the Ravens’ Pollard hauled him down in the AFC Championship Game. Ankles aren’t built to bend in the direction his did.

My apologies for dwelling on it, but it’s difficult to avoid acknowledging that it wasn’t the only infamous Patriots injury that flashed to mind -- watching Hernandez slowly descend down the stairs to the x-ray room, limping and flanked by training staff personnel attempting to bear his weight for him, the scene was all too familiar to the one that unfolded in the agonizing seconds after Pollard blew out Brady’s knee in the first quarter of the first game of the 2008 season. You wondered when – or whether -- you’d see him emerge again.

It was just a few ticks of the play clock beyond that when the press box PA announcer confirmed the obvious, announcing that Hernandez had an ankle injury, punctuating it by adding that his return was questionable. He meant for the game. He could have meant for … well, for who knows how long? Perhaps until the Foxborough weather is much more frigid.

Maybe there is reason for optimism regarding Hernandez’s status -- he was seen in the locker room afterward leaning on crutches with his leg in a boot, and there were reports Sunday night that it was a sprain rather than a break. But until No. 81 – and we don’t mean Stephen Starring -- is back that huddle, the question about his status will linger. And given some unusual happenings with the offense not only for all of the three plays he was on the field, but for the 71 plays they ran from scrimmage after his day ended, it’s fair to presume it won’t be the only question that follows them at least until they win in convincing fashion again.

Josh McDaniels’s bona fides as an offensive coordinator should not require detailed explanation around here; the 589 points (36.8 per game) the team scored under his guidance in 2007, as well as its relative success with untested Matt Cassel at quarterback a year later, should buy him a lot of leeway even if he is the person who once spent a first-round pick on Tim Tebow. This offense is going to keep the numbers on the scoreboard changing rapidly more Sundays (and Mondays, and even Thanksgiving Thursday) than not.

Still … man, the approach Sunday was puzzling, wasn’t it? So much of it made so little sense. Even with the knowledge that the play calling would have been different had Hernandez been out there, some of the personnel choices and plans of attack were so unorthodox that it seemed like they were expecting bonus points for degree of difficulty.

There was too much Danny Woodhead (eight carries, 18 yards, one reception, 12 yards) and not enough Rob Gronkowski (six catches, 75 yards, 1 touchdown, and a holding call on, coincidentally, what would have been a go-ahead Woodhead TD run with 58 second left). Gronk was targeted just twice in the first half, and considering he’s one of the few players in the league who is open when he’s covered, that’s inexcusable. Brandon Lloyd was targeted 13 times, catching 8 balls but also reading things differently than the quarterback on a couple of pivotal plays, including an incompletion with 4:08 left in the third quarter when he broke outside while Brady threw a strike that would have gone for a sure touchdown had Lloyd stayed the course.

More baffling was the decision to start Edelman over Welker. While they have some similar attributes as quick, jittery slot receivers, there is absolutely no way the former should be starting over the latter. Last week I bought the suggestion that Welker’s diminished role was related to particular matchups with the Titans. But two weeks in a row? Sunday he played fewer snaps than Edelman, who has 49 catches in his career, or 73 fewer than Welker had just last season. It’s inexplicable and inexcusable.

After Hernandez got hurt, the Patriots seemed more interested in getting Edelman and Woodhead involved than they did Welker and Gronkowski. Perhaps I’m missing something – again, that football calculus – but if this happens again, I may start wondering whether the phrase “offensive scheme’’ applies not to their game plan, but how they are treating Welker.

When asked by the Globe's Greg Bedard whether he was “on board’’ with Edelman playing in front of Welker, Brady looked briefly surprised, then offered a diplomatic answer.

“There are plays that Julian is in for,’’ said Brady, who did not extend his streak of games with a TD pass to 34 until the fourth quarter. “There are a lot of plays Wes is in there for. I like both those guys and they both work really hard. That’s always coach’s decision. Who’s out there, that’s not really my decision.’’

But Brady also offered this on Welker: “He’s a phenomenal player and when he makes plays it really sparks our whole offense. He made a bunch of them today. That’s what we need. We just have to do a little bit more to get the ball in the end zone.”

That might be tougher to do in Hernandez’s absence. Getting the ball to the best players next Sunday against the Ravens would be a decent start. And at least they may not have to deal with Pollard's Patriots-harming karma -- he got hurt Sunday too.

As one of the cool duties that comes with that new byline up there, I'll be writing a conventional Patriots column after every game this season. So I figured that to preview the game each week, I'd try something a little less conventional and yet still in the spirit of the serious-but-lighthearted, often-nostalgic prism with which TATB has always viewed sports. This column is still a work in progress in Week 2, something you probably won't need to be reminded of after reading it. Some features will reoccur every week, and others will be opponent-specific or even one-and-done. But it will be right here every Friday around noon, and I think it's going to be fun. Hope you do too. And yes, this is the last time I'll use this ridiculously long intro.

THREE PLAYERS OTHER THAN TOM BRADY I'LL BE WATCHING
1. Chandler Jones, defensive end: Willie McGinest played his final game as a Patriot on January 7, 2006, a 27-14 playoff loss to the Broncos that ended the bid for three straight Super Bowl victories. While it was probably time for him to go -- he went on to three nondescript seasons in Cleveland where he totaled eight sacks -- the Patriots have never come close to replacing all that he provided to their defense. I've seen Jones, the first-round pick out of Syracuse, play exactly one NFL game, just as you have. And I'm sure I'm not the only one who watched that strip-sack of Jake Locker Sunday and thought, "They've got the guy. McGinest has finally been replaced."

2. Dont'a Hightower, linebacker: So this is what it looks like to have fast, relentless young playmakers on defense.

3. Larry Fitzgerald, wide receiver, Cardinals: For the past couple of seasons, if you'd told me that the Patriots could steal one player off another team's roster without repercussion from Overlord Goodell, Fitzgerald might have been my first choice. Can you imagine him playing with Brady rather than the parade of McCowns and honorary McCowns he's played with in Arizona? Fitzgerald has been surpassed by Calvin Johnson as the league's most dynamic receiver, and his list of career comps isn't quite as impressive as you'd expect. According to pro-footballreference.com, his most similar receiver in career "quality and shape" through five seasons is receiver John Jefferson, who was a brilliant flash rather than an enduring great. But at 29, Fitzgerald is still in his prime, and I suspect his own quarterback will do a better job of minimizing his impact Sunday than the Patriots defensive backs will.

CARDINALS CORNERBACK WHO MIGHT GIVE YOU OLD TIMERS LIKE ME SOME MIKE HAYNES '76 FLASHBACKS
There are game-changers. And then there are those even rarer players who can have such a profound impact on a particular play that it is essential to go to great lengths to avoid giving him a chance to tilt the game's outcome. The Cardinals' Patrick Peterson, a second-year return man and cornerback, is fast becoming one of those players. As a rookie last season, Peterson tied the NFL record with four punt returns for touchdowns, joining Devin Hester, Rick Upchurch, and Jack Christiansen. (Haynes had two for the '76 Patriots, the first season in his Hall of Fame career). As a cornerback, he's on a track to become the player Darrelle Revis is purported to be. I'm not saying it's best for the Patriots if Zoltan Mesko avoids him at all costs, but ... well, watch at your own risk.

COMPLETELY RANDOM FOOTBALL CARD
I bet Bill Belichick, with his historical and tactical appreciation for multi-skilled football players, loved Roy Green. If you only vaguely remember him -- and that's excusable, because while he was a heck of a player, ranking 51st all-time with 8,965 receiving yards in 14 NFL seasons, 12 of those seasons were spent in the NFL witness protection program playing for the Cardinals -- he's worth revisiting. Green's career was sort of the reverse of Troy Brown's, the great Patriots receiver and occasional defensive back who will be inducted into the franchise's Hall of Fame Saturday. Brown played defensive back on essentially an emergency basis beginning in 2004, his 12th NFL season, even picking off three passes for the Super Bowl champs. Green began his career in 1979 as a cornerback, but was so dynamic as a kick returner that he began getting time on offense, and had 33 catches at more than 20 yards per pop in '81. He made the transition to receiver full-time in 1982. Heck of a player, heck of a career, and someone worth remembering.

GRIEVANCE OF THE WEEK
The notion that Wes Welker, who had three catches for 14 yards in the opener, has become an afterthought or is being phased out because of his contract status, is the height of hysterical, contrived sports-radio-driven ridiculousness, and fans who give credence to this really need to start thinking for themselves. Yes, the three-for-14 is an unusually low output for Welker, who had 122 receptions last year, 22 more than any other receiver in the league. But c'mon, do you really think Tom Brady is conspiring to throw him the ball less? You know better -- the Patriots offense is absolutely stacked, as deep and versatile as imaginable with Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and Brandon Lloyd, and because Brady can spread the ball around depending upon the defense and particular matchups, someone among them is always going to end up with fewer chances than you'd expect for a player of accomplishment. Last week it was Welker. Guess what? It's been Welker before. Last season, he had two catches for 22 yards in Week 11 against the Chiefs. In 2010, he had three games with three catches and three more with four, and he finished that season with 86 receptions coming off a knee injury. Even in the record-setting 2007 season, when Welker busted out as an NFL star with 112 catches, he had three games with three receptions. It's probably magnified because it happened in the first week of the season. But it's not going to be a trend. Don't be suckered in to thinking something devious is at play here.

PREDICTION GONE HORRIBLY WRONG EXACTLY ONE WEEK INTO THE SEASON
Wrote this way back in, let's see ... um, it was last week. It was my sixth blind heave at a dartboard fearless 2012 NFL prediction in a gallery of a dozen, and hopefully will prove my most embarrassing:

The Cardinals' John Skelton will prove valuable in both real and fantasy football. It seems like a quarterback or two emerges every season from relative obscurity to become a dependable starter. Think Matt Moore or Ryan Fitzpatrick last year. Our bet to put up unexpectedly good numbers this season is the Cardinals' Skelton, who threw for 1,913 yards last year in eight games, is more comfortable in his third season, and has Larry Fitzgerald on his side.

Well, that was fun while it lasted ... which was, precisely, 51 minutes and 27 seconds of the Cardinals' season-opening victory over the Seahawks last Sunday. That's how long Skelton lasted before suffering a high ankle sprain that apparently was painful enough that he required the assistance of the cart to get off the field with 7:33 remaining in the fourth quarter.

And to be honest, it actually wasn't that fun while he was playing -- he finished just 14 of 28 with an interception before giving way to Kevin Kolb, who guided the Cardinals to victory and will start Sunday. Here's a makeup prediction: Kolb will be just as mediocre against the Patriots as Skelton was against Seattle, providing us with more evidence that this Patriots defense has been seriously upgraded. Come to think of it, the Cardinals might be best off starting Neil Lomax. Patriots 37, Cardinals 14

(Last week's prediction: Patriots 34, Titans 17. Final score: Patriots, 34-13. Record: 1-0.)

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

The first chance in more than seven months to see the Patriots play a game that matters couldn't have been more satisfying. The outcome, a 34-13 victory over the Titans in which more the than usual cast of Patriots played extremely well, perfectly fit the game plan regarding how fans daydreamed it might go.

With that first victory came so many other firsts -- the first 30-plus-point performance (a number they achieved in their first five games last year and their first eight in 2007), the first clues that this offense is going to be as versatile as any they have ever had (122-catch receiver Wes Welker was practically an afterthought), the first Tom Brady milestone (he threw career TD passes Nos. 301 and 302, breaking a tie with John Elway for fifth), and the season's first successfully executed GRONKSPIKE! ...

Well, OK, we're still waiting on that last one, with all-world Russ Francis Rob Gronkowski doing something during his celebration he rarely does when a pass is thrown his way -- he lost his grip on the football. There will be other spikes, roughly one per week, so he'll have plenty of chances to repair that part of his game.

Here are a few other firsts in a performance so thoroughly entertaining that next Sunday's matchup with the Cardinals already feels much too far away.

First touchdown: Let the record show that it went to tight end/wide receiver/running back Aaron Hernandez, who hauled in a 23-yard changeup down the middle from Brady and breezed into the end zone with 1 minute 59 seconds left in the first quarter.

While there were other appropriate choices to be the first to find the end zone this year -- Welker or Gronkowski to name the most obvious -- it does seem fitting that it was Hernandez, as if foreshadowing the monster season most of us believe is coming from him.

The Patriots have never had anything like Hernandez -- the best comparison I can come up with in terms of being a Swiss Army knife for the offense is Keith Byars, and they couldn't be more different physically or athletically. Byars would need five steps to cover the ground Hernandez does in one stride.

What an incredible weapon.

First catch by a newly acquired receiver who can really play: I'm irrationally excited about watching Brandon Lloyd carve out his niche in this offense. Not that their passing game needed much, but he's exactly what their passing game needed, you know? As evidenced by his 27-yard grab on the Patriots' first play of the second quarter, he can get open down the field, something the offense lacked all of last season.

And that's not all there is to like about Lloyd. He's as versatile a receiver as the Patriots have had in Brady's time here, he's going to thrive in this system because he already has, and he reminds me of Terry Glenn in the graceful way he contorts to catch everything with his hands.

He was good Sunday -- five catches, 69 yards, and a near-miss on a sure touchdown -- and he's only going to get better as he and Brady develop chemistry.

First running back to show a burst: Two seasons ago, Chris Johnson ran for 2,006 yards. To match that output this season, he's going to need, let's see, 2,002 yards over the final 15 games. The Patriots' run defense did an extraordinary job of preventing Johnson from stepping on the accelerator, with Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo at the forefront as usual.

The most effective and dazzling back on the field Sunday wasn't Johnson, but his young counterpart with the Patriots, Stevan Ridley. The second-year back out of LSU piled up 125 yards on 21 carries while flashing everything you want to see out of a feature back -- elusiveness, power, speed, instincts, durability, consistency, tenacity, you name it.

Oh, yes, and he also didn't put the football on the ground, a habit that put an abbreviated end to his playing time last postseason. Maybe Ridley needed the offseason to mature and adjust and improve, but the player we saw Sunday really could have helped in Indianapolis in February. And he's going to help a lot this year as the breakaway threat dependable but limited BenJarvus Green-Ellis never could be.

First indication that the defense might actually make some big plays this year: At the 11:07 mark of the second quarter, rookie first-round pick Chandler Jones blew through a double team and strip-sacked Titans quarterback Jake Locker. Rookie first-round pick Dont'a Hightower scooped up the bouncing ball cleanly, made one sharp cut, and ran 6 yards (or two more than CJ2K's rushing output for the day) into the end zone for a score.

And suddenly, we were reminded for the first time in awhile what a young, playmaking defense can look like.

Now, I'm not saying Jones and Hightower should begin preparing their Hall of Fame speeches for Patriot Place yet, let alone Canton. But watching the two dynamic rookies make what was the pivotal play of the game, you couldn't help but pleasantly flash back to Willie McGinest and Tedy Bruschi doing something similar back when this run of excellent all began.

First cringe-worthy moment: I hate thinking this way, but I think this way, so I might as well admit it.

In the buildup to this game -- which pretty much began in June given the pathetic descent into irrelevance by the Red Sox this summer -- I couldn't help but ponder some ugly potential symmetry.

The Patriots lost the Super Bowl to the Giants in 2007, then lost Tom Brady in the opener the next year.

The Patriots lost the Super Bowl to the Giants in February, then ... well, nothing, thank goodness, and again, I hate even mentioning it, though I must admit it did not go unnoticed when the 7:27 mark of the first quarter passed without incident Sunday.

Not that Brady didn't take a few lumps. Brady briefly looked dazed and confused when he got belted from behind by the Titans' Kamerion Wimbley in the second quarter, his legs folding up like a card table beneath him, but all he ended up with was a bloody and possibly broken nose.

No real harm, and the only real foul is that there's a good chance the nose bandage he wore in his postgame press conference will become the next misguided fashion symbol for NBA stars next season. Russell Westbrook probably has Band-Aids stuck all over his face already.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

As one of the cool duties that comes with that new byline up there, I'll be writing a conventional Patriots column after every game this season. So I figured that to preview the game each week, I'd try something a little less conventional and yet still in the spirit of the serious-but-lighthearted, often-nostalgic prism with which TATB has always viewed sports. This column is still a work in progress in Week 1, something you probably won't need to be reminded of after reading it. Some features will reoccur every week, and others will be opponent-specific or even one-and-done. But it will be right here every Friday around noon, and I think it's going to be fun. Hope you do too.

THREE PLAYERS OTHER THAN Tom Brady I'LL BE WATCHING
1. Brandon Lloyd, wide receiver: He does not excel in one specific aspect of playing wide receiver like slot machine Wes Welker or deep threat Randy Moss do/did, but he's the most well-rounded receiver the Patriots have had in Tom Brady's time here. He'll surpass Chad Ochocinco's 2011 season output of 15 receptions after Week 3.

2. Ras-I Dowling, cornerback: If Devin McCourty -- a bright and talented player who has already succeeded in the NFL -- can overcome his disappointing sophomore season and one other young defensive back emerges, the Patriots should be able to make significant progress in their pass defense. Perhaps they'll even get off the field on third down once in a while. The best hope is that Dowling, who drew comparisons to McCourty as the first pick in the second round a year ago, becomes that player.

3. Brian Waters, guard: Whaddaya mean he's not here? HIS NAMEPLATE IS STILL ON HIS LOCKER! [Update: Um, it's not anymore.] While the temptation to fret is real -- Waters probably was their best lineman a year ago, though Matt Light had a darned good year -- Dante Scarnecchia will turn these guys into a cohesive unit with or without him.

GRIEVANCE OF THE WEEK
I'm not one with a lot of gripes, so this will probably be a recurring feature at best. And I hate to be a scold or a nag or a finger-waver or ... well, you know. And I should note this applies to a minority of Patriots fans -- a vocal minority, but a minority nonetheless. Now with all of the qualifiers out of the way, let me just make this request. Please stop overreacting to every little unexpected transaction Bill Belichick makes. Please. Sure, it was disappointing to see Deion Branch, a likable dude and a big-game player, get cut. And it was surprising that Branch, Jabar Gaffney, and Donte' Stallworth all got cut, though it's not out of the realm of possibility that at least one returns. And Belichick has had his share of foibles in free agency. But geez, the Patriots are 123-37 over the past decade, an almost unfathomable run of excellent in an era of free agency and relative parity. One-twenty-three and thirty-seven! And yet Belichick gets relentlessly second-guessed in the comments sections and mailbags by some of the couch-bound general managers among us as if he's football's version of Isiah Thomas or something. Before the 2010 draft, the consensus yelp was that the Patriots didn't have any tight ends. Enter Gronk and Hernandez. Two-plus years later, now the yelp is that he's accumulating too many tight ends at the expense of receivers. I happen to appreciate a coach/personnel boss who makes every decision based on who fits and who belongs, not on name recognition and past accomplishment. Please, let it play out -- chances are it's all going to be better than OK.

[Addendum: If the Patriots really are cheaping out on Waters, I'm right there with you on this one. Squawk away, because it's absurd. Also, hello, my name is Hypocrite.]

LATEST EVIDENCE THAT CHRIS BALLARD IS SPORTS ILLUSTRATED'S MOST UNSUNG TAKEOUT WRITER
A year or so ago, Ballard wrote a feature on free-thinking former quarterback Jake Plummer that ranks as one of my favorite pieces I've ever read in the magazine. His piece in last week's issue on Rob Gronkowski is nearly as good, which means it's downright brilliant. Segments such as the one that follows here further confirmed my perception of Gronk as a fratboy/jock prototype -- yes, usually an annoying phylum for sure -- who is so genuine and guileless that you can't help but love the guy.

He paused, grabbed a nearby pillow, cradled it like a football. "I like going out, meeting new people, having a good time," he continued. "I guess that's why I'm all over the papers. I don't have any girlfriends, no kids. Basically I work out two hours every single day, and then I have 12 hours to do whatever I want."

He looked at me, and I nodded, because it did sound simple. In 10 years, Gronkowski will be worried about so much: concussions and aching joints, possibly a wife and children, bad publicity, who knows what else. For now, though, he exists in that electric, untenable flash of time that is being young, supremely gifted and on top of the world. He is, for a fleeting moment, invincible.

Here's hoping the moment isn't so fleeting, because Gronk is about as fun as it gets.

RANDOM FOOTAGE OF A PATRIOTS-OILERS/TITANS MATCHUP FROM 1975

Half-formed takeaways from a 1 minute 34 second clip: Mack Herron could scoot, though that didn't help him much after he put the ball on the ground ... Prentice McCray tackled like he was foreshadowing the ascent of Asante Samuel ... Oilers running back Don Hardeman -- nicknamed "Jaws,'' Pat Summerall tells us -- looked like a fierce runner, just not as fierce as the guy who replaced him three years later. Then again, no one I've seen ran with as much ferocity as Earl Campbell.

COMPLETELY RANDOM FOOTBALL CARD
Warren Moon is 55 years old, and I still wouldn't bet against him having a better fastball now than anyone who will suit up at quarterback for the Titans Sunday. Save for Jeff George -- yes, Jeff George -- nobody zipped a tight spiral more effortlessly than Moon. Imagine the numbers he'd have put up if he got a chance in the NFL before he was 28 years old.

PREDICTION, ALSO KNOWN AS "DO THE TITANS HAVE A SNOWBALL'S CHANCE IN PHIL SIMMS'S FACE OF WINNING?"
Well, sure they do -- I mean, Chad Henne dropped 416 yards on the Patriots in Week 1 last year, and chances are Jake Locker will perform well enough this year that he doesn't go the Henne route and end up banished to Jacksonville as a backup. Of course, the Dolphins didn't actually win that game, losing 38-24. The Titans are a tough, well-coached, well-rounded team, and running back Chris Johnson (CJ2K in 2010, CJ1.047K last year) can score from anywhere on the field. But the Patriots scored at least 30 points in each of their first five games last year, and their offense is deeper and more versatile this year than it was a season ago. The Titans won't be able to keep up. Few will. Patriots 34, Titans 17.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Columnist

There are few crueler reminders than NFL cutdown that one person's fulfilled dreams are often countered by the denial or deference of someone else's.

It's a particular bummer when familiar, accomplished players are told that Coach Belichick wants to see you, and oh, bring your playbook. It's never easy to say goodbye to Dan Koppen, a sturdy anchor on a couple of Super Bowl winners, or Deion Branch, the Most Valuable Player of the Patriots' last Super Bowl victory who might have helped secure another title or even two had he not taken a four-year detour to Seattle.

Branch and Koppen were victims of time and The Turk Friday, the two veterans with a total of 19 NFL seasons and four Super Bowl rings between them standing out as the most notable names among those released by the Patriots during the unsparing cutdown to the final 53.

Brian Hoyer, Tom Brady's apprentice the past couple of seasons, was dropped as well. Tough James Ihedigbo, too.

It's understandable to want to pay appropriate homage to Patriots players who have been a part of so many fulfilling Sundays. Heck, pour out 12 ounces of whatever the official gameday beverage that helps you stay hydrated happens to be, wear that No. 84 jersey (No. 83 if you still have the old-school Branch kicking around) when you do yard work tomorrow, salute them in your own way.

But if you're tempted to take to Twitter or the local airwaves to caterwaul about the injustice of it all, first, remind yourself of a couple things.

Bill Belichick knows better than -- well, certainly than the person writing this and all of you reading it combined -- about what is best for this team. Rarely do his cuts come back to haunt the franchise. And sometimes, the cuts actually come back -- I wouldn't be surprised to see Branch or Jabar Gaffney back on this roster in a week or so.

Also, consider: When familiar names are cut for football reasons, that's not necessarily bad -- in fact, it's a strong suggestion that young players are emerging and that there's depth on the roster beyond the starting 22.

If this is Branch's final goodbye here, shoot, I'll miss him, too. He's a wonderful, positive guy who got the most out of his ability, who rose to the occasion in many huge moments. (You can cite last season's Super Bowl as an example of when he didn't. I wasn't planning on it.) I'll always believe Peyton Manning's Super Bowl ring count would still be at zero had Branch, rather than Reche Caldwell or Doug Gabriel, been a part of the '06 team.

But once the moment of acknowledgement has passed, it's pretty foolish to dwell on who isn't here rather than who is. One of the reasons these name players were let go Friday is because this team is loaded. Tom Brady may not approach the records he set in 2007, but this offense, with Brandon Lloyd joining Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker, and Aaron Hernandez, is more diverse than the one he had five years ago.

The defense features steady veterans such as Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo, two extraordinarily talented rookies in Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower, and a fascinating group of core players of various accomplishment moving into their prime.

The offense will be spectacular, and the defense should be much improved just by showing up.

Sure, there are concerns -- after the way the shorthanded offensive line performed in preseason, you wish Tom Brady's canine paraphernalia included a protective invisible fence. Ras-I Dowling needs to stay healthy and Devin McCourty needs to stay confident, and both cornerbacks could benefit greatly by the assistance provided by a decent pass rush.

But the Patriots' list of concerns is comparatively quite short. I look up and down this roster and stare at the depth charts, and though they feature fewer familiar names than they did just a few hours ago, I cannot help but think that this team is so loaded that with good health and good luck, it's well-positioned to accomplish what was denied the '08 club the moment Brady went down halfway through the first quarter of the first game:

Tear through the league, from Week 1 all the way to the Super Bowl, eventually avenging an agonizing Super Bowl loss to the Giants. Optimistic? Sure. I don't understand Patriots fans who aren't, to be honest. Did the Red Sox beat you down that much?

It's too bad Branch probably won't be around for this season's ride. But that's how it goes, that vicious cycle of NFL life that becomes magnified on cutdown day -- one player's sad departure opens the door for another's dream to come true.

@GlobeChadFinn

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Staff

When the Patriots make their preseason debut August 9, a voice that accompanied generations of fans on autumn Sundays for more than three decades will be absent from the team’s radio broadcast.

Gino Cappelletti, known affectionately as “Mr. Patriot” for his on-field exploits during the franchise’s early years before embarking on a 32-year career as the popular color analyst on the team’s radio broadcasts, has decided to retire.

Gil Santos, his partner for 28 years on the broadcasts and the past 21 consecutively, will return for his 36th year in the booth. Scott Zolak, the former Patriots quarterback who thrived in an innovative sideline-based third analyst role last season, is expected to succeed Cappelletti on 98.5 The Sports Hub’s broadcasts, though that decision is yet to be finalized.

The gentlemanly Cappelletti, 78, was not available for comment Thursday night, but he said in a statement through CBS Radio that it has been tremendously rewarding to watch the Patriots develop into one of the NFL’s signature franchises

“Through five decades, my romance with football and my relationship with the Patriots organization have provided me with a lifetime of wonderful memories,” said Cappelletti a rookie wide receiver/kicker/defensive back on the franchise’s inaugural team in the American Football League in 1960 who would go on to be an MVP, a five-time All-Star, the league’s all-time leading scorer, and a member of the all-time All-AFL team.

“I have had the privilege of sharing the broadcast of six Super Bowls, and amazingly, five in the past decade. The memory of the first Super Bowl victory will always be fresh in my mind. For me, it serves as a special reminder of how far this franchise has come, the challenges that were met, and the adversity we faced in those early years. But as they say in the huddle after a long, successful day’s work, it’s time to take a knee and celebrate the win.’’

Santos and Cappelletti, paired together from 1972-78 and consecutively from 1991 through last season, had many successful days of work. With Santos’s classic baritone and Cappelletti’s genial manner, they were the unofficial voices of fall in New England. During their heyday Patriots fans liked to say they turned down the sound on the television so they could listen to the broadcasters they knew simply as Gil and Gino. Their call of Adam Vinatieri’s winning field goal in Super Bowl XXXVI remains an all-time classic.

But in recent years, the game seemed to speed up on Cappelletti, and gaffes became more prevalent during the broadcast. Adding Zolak to the team last year was a graceful way of providing support while letting Cappelletti go out on his own terms. But for generations of Patriots fans, it won’t be quite the same without him.

“Gino is a beloved sports legend in the region who has earned this well-deserved retirement,’’ said CBS Radio Boston senior vice president and market manager Mark Hannon. “Listening to the Patriots games without the voice of Cappelletti will be a big change.”

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Staff

Ten free minutes for me, 10 free throwaway lines for you ...

1. I suppose the five hits he has in nine at-bats since his return to the lineup has served as a reminder, but I thought not enough was made of Jacoby Ellsbury's absence and the effect it had on the Red Sox. Based on MVP balloting, he was the best offensive player in the league last season, and his numbers (212 hits, 32 homers, 46 doubles, 39 stolen bases, .928 OPS) stand as a historically great season. Future NL-pinch-hitter-extraordinaire Daniel Nava filled in beyond expectations in Ellsbury and Carl Crawford's absence, and Scott Podsednik had his moments, but the Red Sox also had to endure 268 mostly fruitless at-bats from Marlon Byrd, Darnell McDonald, and Ryan Kalish while biding their time until the varsity (copyright Larry Lucchino) returned. Seeing Ellsbury back at the top of the lineup makes it easier to have optimism about this team without searching too hard for it.

2. A three-run homer every once in a while would be swell, but any grievances regarding Adrian Gonzalez should stop well shy of suggesting he's jaking it by missing games due to illness and a back issue recently. He's a player who prides himself of being in there every day -- the fewest games he's played any season among the previous five is 159. He may be a disappointment, but he's not a malingerer.

3. One way to kill time before the start of Patriots camp, which can't get here soon enough: Stare at the depth chart, rattle off the names, and marvel at the talent Tom Brady will have at his disposal this season in the passing game alone: Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney, Deion Branch, Donte' Stallworth, Julian Edelman, as well as Danny Woodhead out of the backfield. There will be attrition, of course, and someone like Stallworth may not even make the cut. The passing game probably won't be as productive as the record-setting Randy Moss/Wes Welker fireworks show of 2007, but it will be able to torment a defense in more ways.

4. As far as the running backs beyond Woodhead are concerned, you have to figure Stevan Ridley, who suffered from acute fumbleitis late in his rookie season, will pick up most of BenJarvus Green-Ellis's carries, presuming he spent the offseason carrying a football everywhere he went like Darnell Jefferson in the "The Program.'' I can't envision Joseph Addai being anything more than the new Fred Taylor. Shane Vereen, whose rookie season was lost from the beginning, is my sleeper. The kid is electric in the open field.

5. Bruins one-timer: I'm probably in the minority on this, but I'd rather trade Milan Lucic than David Krejci in a deal for Anaheim's Bobby Ryan or another top-shelf forward. As enigmatic as Krejci can be -- he reminds me of Rajon Rondo in that regard to some degree -- he also has a track record of playing his best when the spotlight is brightest. But if it's Krejci or Lucic and Dougie Hamilton, forget it.

6. The theory that he was having ex-Celtics Remorse is interesting, and Ray Allen was certainly subdued at his introductory press conference (perhaps he was expecting a house DJ and maybe some pyrotechnics?) but it's hard for me to figure anyone going to Miami for millions of dollars to play with LeBron James is going to be bummed about much of anything for long.

7. As you probably can imagine, I can't get over the story about the haul of rare baseball cards found in someone's attic in Ohio. It's every baseball fan's daydream. Or a fan of loot and money, for that matter. I spent hours as a kid scouring my grandmother's attic trying to find my dad's extensive collection of '50s baseball cards, with not a trace of vintage '52 cardboard to be found. We all have a similar story, don't we? I can tell you this: Those cards, estimated to be bring $3 million if they are sold or auctioned, will go for a lot more than that. I'd bet double.

8. So assuming that Andrew Bailey returns to the Red Sox while the games still matter this season, is he the closer immediately, does he have to prove himself in a setup role first, or has Alfredo Aceves done enough to keep it? I'm leaning toward the latter, though there are fantasy baseball biases at play there.

9. Brent Lillibridge has a minus-33 OPS+ in 16 plate appearances for the Red Sox. It's a puny sample-size to be sure, but I look at his career 67 OPS+ in 600 at-bats -- not a puny sample size -- and I find myself hoping that the Red Sox don't ditch Ryan Sweeney to keep Lillibridge around, even considering his speed and defensive prowess. For some noodle-bat perspective, Craig Grebeck had a minus-55 OPS+ during his 43 plate-appearances with the Red Sox in 2001, while Cesar Crespo put up a beastly minus-4 OPS+ in 79 plate appearances in 2003.

10. As for today's Completely Random Baseball Card:

Still waiting for Lucchino's report on how "cheerful" he was after Bobby Valentine called him out for a lackadaisical defensive play Sunday.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Staff

After a year's hiatus, the popular NFL reality program "Hard Knocks'' will return to HBO late this summer when it documents the training camp of the Miami Dolphins.

"We are delighted that 'Hard Knocks' will be returning this summer and placing the spotlight on the Miami Dolphins, a venerable franchise that had an exciting off-season activity," said HBO Sports president Ken Hershman in a press release announcing the decision. "This marks the first time that the series has featured a first-year head coach and we are extremely grateful to both Coach [Joe] Philbin and the entire organization for agreeing to participate. As always, there will be plenty on the line for veterans, free agents and rookies."

"Hard Knocks'' debuts Aug. 7 with the first of five one-hour episodes. This year, it will air on Tuesdays in prime time after previously being shown on Wednesdays.

The Dolphins may initially seem a curious choice for the behind-the-scenes candor that helped the network, which co-produces "Hard Knocks'' with NFL Films, win three Emmy Awards the last time it aired two years ago while featuring the New York Jets.

But while the Dolphins, who have had a losing record in seven of the past eight seasons, may not feature star power and natural story lines of the Jets, and Philbin is unlikely to utter lines as memorable as Jets coach Rex Ryan's "Now let's go eat a [expletive] snack,'' it won't require much of a search to find interesting angles for the 24-person NFL Films crew that will shoot more than 1,000 hours of video over the course of the series.

And there are interesting personalities. Philbin, formerly the offensive coordinator for the Packers, didn't get to bring Aaron Rodgers along with him when he was hired in January. Instead, he inherits a quarterback competition featuring first-round pick Ryan Tannehill, veteran David Garrard, and incumbent Matt Moore.

Philbin is working for a general manager in Jeff Ireland (a Bill Parcells protégé) who is reputed to be on the secretive side and an owner in Stephen Ross who courts celebrity. It shouldn't take two guesses to determine which one of them signed off on "Hard Knocks,'' which did not air last year because of the NFL lockout and seemed in jeopardy this year because of an apparent unwillingness of teams to commit to the program.

“All the decisions that have been made this off-season have had one guiding principle -- will it help our players and organization reach its full potential?,'' Philbin said in a statement. "This one is no different. We are convinced that our affiliation with NFL Films and HBO will allow football fans everywhere an opportunity to comprehend the significant sacrifices and demands that our players endure each day along their journey in training camp as a Miami Dolphin."

Charismatic running back Reggie Bush, a darling of the tabloids when he dated Kim Kardashian, is coming off the best season of his career. And it is the 40th anniversary of the franchise's 17-0 season in 1972.

"On the 40th anniversary of the greatest season in NFL history -- Don Shula’s perfect ’72 Dolphins -- it is perfectly fitting that Hard Knocks is heading to Miami to capture the start of a new era for one of the league’s proudest teams,” says NFL Films president Steve Sabol in a statement. “After Hard Knocks’ hiatus last summer, I know our team at NFL Films can’t wait to get back on the field.”

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Staff

Ten free minutes for me, 10 throwaway lines for you ...

1. I learned long ago not to write off this particular group of Celtics until the final buzzer has sounded, and that goes for a particular game or this remarkable season as a whole. But while I do think they get by the fledgling Sixers even with an injured Paul Pierce, it has been somewhat disheartening to watch him struggle to play through a knee injury that is hampering him significantly. He's unable to beat defenders off the dribble, and his uncanny knack for gaining position and leverage on his defender has been neutralized. He's also struggled with his passing, especially when the Sixers (and Hawks previously) run an additional defender at him and then jump the passing lane on the rotation. I think the Celtics could beat Miami with a healthy Pierce (and Ray Allen, and Avery Bradley). It'll be disappointing if this injury prevents us from finding out for sure.

2. Never thought we'd see Daniel Nava playing for the home team at Fenway Park ever again, but I guess that's what happens when the outfield depth chart reads like a list of casualties (Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jason Repko, Darnell McDonald, and even Ryan Kalish). And kudos to Nava for being ready for it. He's reached base in 12 of 16 plate appearances, and the way I understand it, a .750 on-base percentage is not bad. What he's done this time around is more impressive than when he first arrived in '10, which is saying something considering -- and I think this is mentioned on the Sox radio broadcast every time he comes to the plate -- he hit a grand slam on the first pitch he saw.

3. Two favorite non-KG moments from Game 1: Avery Bradley beating Rajon Rondo to the loose ball and taking it all the way for a reverse layup. Man, that kid has some mega-jets. Also, Rondo's three-quarter-court perfect strike to Bradley for an in-stride layup. I could get used to watching these two play together for the next half-dozen years or so. OK, and an obvious tied for third -- Rondo's presence of mind to foul Jrue Holiday with a little more than three seconds left, then, on the inbound pass, recognizing that Evan Turner couldn't keep up with him as he dribbled out the clock. Anyone who questions Rondo's hoops IQ should be required to watch the fourth quarter of that game on an endless loop.

4. The suggestion that a player established at one position should move to an unfamiliar one to accommodate another player or to fix a logjam at one spot usually drives me nuts. I still don't like the idea of Adrian Gonzalez playing the outfield, though we'll probably see it in Philadelphia over the weekend. And I know it's not practical to put Kevin Youkilis in left field when he returns -- when he played the position briefly in 2006, he made Manny Ramirez look like Paul Blair, and that's when Youk was healthy. But I do believe Bobby Valentine needs to find a creative way to keep Will Middlebrooks in the lineup when Youkilis returns, and if that means he plays a super-utility role until his inevitable next injury, maybe that is the best way to go.

5. Really curious to see how the Patriots' wide-receiver situation shakes out. I loved the Jabar Gaffney signing -- he came in during '06 and instantly earned Tom Brady's trust -- and I'd be surprised if either Donte' Stallworth or Chad Ochocinco make the team. This much we know for sure: Some established names are going to have a tough time making the Patriots' final 53.

FULL ENTRY

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Staff

I probably should have had my thoughts in order for this since it was the worst-kept secret in Foxborough this offseason, but Matt Light's hilarious and introspective retirement announcement Monday left me with some mixed feelings.

It would be weirdly selfish, particularly in light of recent events, to suggest a player should not walk away from the game on his own volition just because it's apparent that he can still play. Light is going to do extraordinarily well after football -- the NFL Network and ESPN should be wooing him right now, because he is articulate and witty and would be a star analyst immediately -- and he's one of the lucky ones in that he departs on his own terms and right of mind.

But from a less significant standpoint -- the football-related one -- his retirement is the first real blow to the Patriots in an offseason that has delivered almost entirely positive personnel news, from the drafting of Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower to the savvy signing of Jabar Gaffney and several other quality depth pieces.

With Light, who has protected Tom Brady's blind side from snorting, slobbering pass rushers for virtually every snap of his career, moving on, suddenly there's a second-year player at left tackle in Nate Solder, while right tackle is a question mark if Sebastian Vollmer's bad back continues to be a problem. Solder has a chance to be an excellent player. But I doubt he will be the immediate equal of Light, who leaves after one of the best seasons of his 11-year career.

Drafted in the second round in '01 out of Purdue, Light became such an essential player, handling his unglamorous but crucial role with distinction for five Super Bowl teams, that it got me wondering whether he was the best player ever selected by the Patriots in that particular round.

After letting it percolate for about two seconds, I realized the answer was a resounding no, but he is on the short-list of candidates to follow a certain Hall of Famer who has the top spot locked down.

Just for the fun of it, here's my top seven second-rounders in Patriots history, in order:

1. Andre Tippett '82: The Patriots had to be confident they were getting a future defensive superstar in the '82 draft. It just wasn't who they thought. While No. 1 overall pick Ken Sims, a defensive end from Texas, let his sluggishness supersede his talent in a mostly wasted career, the Patriots found the greatest defensive player in franchise history with the 41st overall pick. Tippett was the second-greatest pass rushing linebacker of his era (he was to Lawrence Taylor what Tim Raines was to Rickey Henderson as a leadoff hitter), finishing with 100 sacks in his 12-year career, and he should have been voted into the Hall of Fame long before he was.

2. Steve Nelson, '74: When I first began watching the Patriots in the late '70s, it seemed like the announcer (probably Don Criqui) informed us after every play, "Number 57, Steve Nelson with the tackle." I probably believed he made every one. In 1984, Nellie came about as close as possible to doing just that, finishing with an astounding 207 while making his second of three Pro Bowl appearances.

3. Julius Adams, '71: If you want to drop Adams, a very good pass-rushing defensive end who was also stout against the run, down to No. 5 on this list and move the next two guys up, I'm cool with that. I slotted him because of steadiness and durability more than anything else. He played 206 games from 1971-85 and '87.

4. Matt Light, '01: Light followed in the immediate footsteps of the consensus greatest left tackle in franchise history, Bruce Armstrong, whose 14-year Patriots career concluded in 2000. Light doesn't match Armstrong in longevity (a franchise-record 212 games, all starts) or accolades (six Pro Bowl appearances), but factors such as leadership are included, I think I'd go with the guy who just retired on my all-time Patriots team.

5. Kevin Faulk, '99: The Troy Brown of running backs, he's done everything the team has asked of him and just a little bit more. He also remains the only evidence Bobby Grier can point to and exclaim, "See? I got something right!"

6. Lawyer Milloy '96: In the first three rounds over a span of four years (1993-96), the Patriots drafted Drew Bledsoe, Curtis Martin, Willie McGinest, Ty Law, Tedy Bruschi, Terry Glenn, Ted Johnson, and Milloy. That's how to build it, Tuna. Milloy and Law were the leaders of the defensive backfield that pummeled the delicate Rams receivers in Super Bowl XXXVI. One of the lasting images among many from that game is Bill Belichick hugging one of his children and Milloy in the immediate moments after Adam Vinatieri's field goal proved true.

7. Rob Gronkowski, '10: Yep, it's been just two years. But hell, it was tempting to rank him higher, and I doubt you guys would have objected. After all, in those two seasons, he has 132 receptions for 1,873 yards and 27 touchdowns. If he'd had two healthy ankles in February, the Patriots would have a fourth Super Bowl title. Provided he can stay healthy -- a big if given how overmatched would-be tacklers go for his legs -- he will be the greatest tight end of all-time.

One fine receiver and a bunch of busts: Deion Branch '02 has 312 regular-season receptions as a Patriot. That's 193 more than fellow second-round receivers Kevin Lee '94 (8 receptions), Darryal Wilson '83 (0 receptions), Tony Simmons '98 (58), Bethel Johnson '03 (39), and Chad Jackson '06 (14) combined for in their entire careers. Heck, Branch has more Super Bowl receptions (24) than Wilson, Lee and Jackson totaled during the regular season.

Other quality second-rounders of various levels of accomplishment: Patrick Chung '09, Sebastian Vollmer '09, Eugene Wilson '03, Ted Johnson '95, Vincent Brown '88, Garin Veris '85, Tony Collins '81, Larry McGrew '80, Horace Ivory '77, Rod Shoate '75, Brandon Spikes '10, Chris Slade, '93, and Lee Roy Jordan, '63 (never played for the Pats, who drafted him as a center, but starred at linebacker for the Cowboys for 14 years).

@GlobeChadFinn

By Chad Finn, Boston.com Staff

He will forever be associated with the San Diego Chargers for reasons both triumphant and tragic. But the coda to Junior Seau's brilliant 20-year NFL career came here in New England, where he spent 38 regular-season games over four seasons proving how a player of such individual distinction could become a wonderfully enthusiastic role player and teammate.

Seau, who died Wednesday from an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound at age 43, was a favorite of the coach, Bill Belichick, who once coached Lawrence Taylor with the Giants and has an obvious affection for linebackers of extraordinary skill and ability. While Seau's greatest days came as a San Diego Charger, the franchise for which he made 12 Pro Bowl appearances in his 13 seasons, Patriots fans have their snapshots of him, too.

He is remembered foremost for his toughness. After suffering a gruesomely broken arm in a November 2006 game, he walked off the field saluting the fans (with his good wing), then returned the following season to play all 16 games.

He is remembered for his enthusiastic willingness to join the Patriots in the middle of a season when Belichick would call to tell him his services were needed. Once, he said the call came while he was on a surf board, enjoying his retirement that was about to prove temporary again.

And he is remembered, admiringly despite the outcome, for his words of encouragement to Tedy Bruschi -- "Get a stop. We've just got to get a stop'' -- as the defense prepared to take the field for the final time in Super Bowl XLII. His teammates seemed to want that ring for him as badly as they wanted one for themselves.

When we watched him in his Patriot years, it was impossible not to recall one glaring what-if that hovered over the franchise for years. Seau could have, and probably should have, been a Patriot so much sooner.

In the 1990 NFL Draft, the Pats owned the third overall selection, courtesy of a 5-11 record the previous season. Rather than keeping the coveted selection for themselves, the Patriots did what they did in those days -- they made a decision that would haunt them, trading out of the spot, giving Seattle the pick along with a second-rounder in exchange for two first-rounders (Nos. 8-10), and a third-rounder.

The Seahawks selected Cortez Kennedy, who was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in February.

Two picks later, the Chargers chose Seau, who will be elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame the first moment he is eligible for consideration.

And with the No. 8 pick, the Patriots, in dire need of linebacker help, chose ... Chris Singleton from Arizona. He played six years in the league, finishing with seven career sacks. He did not make the Pro Football Hall of Fame. The Patriots went 1-15 in 1990.

Patriots history would be changed beyond recognition if they'd chosen the right player that day. Maybe Seau gives them instant defensive credibility, and the franchise is never in position to draft Drew Bledsoe (No. 1 overall, 1993) or Seau's Southern Cal successor, Willie McGinest (No. 4 overall, '94). But even in a Patriot fan's lament, this much is certain: Seau ended up where he belonged.

He wasn't just a Charger, he was the Chargers, crackling with electricity every time the ball was snapped. Relentless, ferocious and impossibly athletic from his linebacker position, he was superb at every aspect of playing the position. His talent, knowledge and instincts were such that he got away with freelancing more than any linebacker who didn't answer to L.T.

Before coming to New England, Seau spent three years in Miami, and his first 13 of his 20 NFL seasons with the Chargers. He's arguably that franchise's all-time most beloved and iconic player. Wednesday, he became part of their tortured legacy, becoming the eighth member of their 1994 Super Bowl team to die.

As a Patriots fan, it was easy to envy the Chargers fans who were lucky enough to have watched Seau wreak havoc on opposing offenses every Sunday in his heyday. You wished he could have arrived in New England sooner than he did. But Monday, football fans everywhere were united in sadness, wondering why he had to go.

@GlobeChadFinn

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

Question, Boston sports fans: How many times did you replay Tyler Seguin's winning goal in Game 6 immediately after it happened? Five? A dozen? Or are you still hitting the rewind/play combo on your DVR this morning, two days after one of the most beautiful big-moment goals you'll ever see and a day before one of the most delicious events in sports, a Game 7 in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

There were so many reasons to watch his game-winner, then watch it again and again and one more time again. The magnitude of it, for starters, for his OT score kept the defending champions' season alive against Alex Ovechkin and the gifted, enigmatic Washington Capitals. Milan Lucic's gorgeous, almost casual, pass that sent Seguin on his way. The roadrunner-on-skates beep-beep speed with which he left the defense in his wake and closed in on Caps goalie Braden Holtby. The shot itself, which was from an angle you didn't need to be a geometrician to appreciate.

For me, and probably a lot of you too, there was one aspect of the play that impressed me more than the rest: Seguin's extraordinary patience.

I mean, for a 20-year-old athlete to have the presence of mind in that situation to wait ... and wait ... and wait to shoot the puck until the goalie all but says, "Will you please *$*@*($@ shoot the puck already, eh?'' before committing and essentially leaving an open net ... well, the poise Seguin showed under those circumstances, when he could have shot sooner, is just an incredible thing. That's why I kept hitting rewind and babbling to my sighing 8-year-old daughter why the play was so special.

Pardon me if this strikes you as a stretch of a connection, but I don't believe it is. See, it hit me like a Zdeno Chara check in the aftermath of the Game 6 victory that there is something all of us can take from Seguin's approach to that moment when it comes to our approach to following professional sports:

The value of patience.

To me, it seems like it's in shorter supply among sports fans and media members nowadays than it has ever been. I'm sure a large part of it is due to the prevalent sports-radio culture, in which every loss and negative play is magnified and dissected beyond recognition, and two losses in a row guarantee that the carcass will be picked bare. Everyone has to have a take, and you're not going to get your 30 seconds on the air with your favorite over-caffeinated host by being reasonable.

I don't like that, but I do get it. What I don't understand is how it rewards you as a fan, or where the satisfaction comes from when patience pays off. What do fans who were yelping for Danny Ainge to "blow it up'' and trade Rajon Rondo just a few weeks ago -- usually without any logical solutions regarding what they could and should get in return -- think now that the Celtics are the team no one wants to play in the Eastern Conference playoffs and Rondo has played his way into All-NBA consideration?

Do they admit that waiting it all out is sometimes the best route? Do they find joy in watching this fascinating team, which bickers like family and has each others' backs like family? Or when the going gets good, do they just move on to the next projected crisis, finding more satisfaction in griping than in success?

I suspect the same people who were piling on Danny Ainge back in February are the same ones who will shriek when Bill Belichick passes up that outside linebacker/defensive end hybrid you just know is the perfect fit for the Belichick scheme, if only he'd see it himself, to take a defensive tackle or a guard in the first round during the upcoming draft.

And yes, of course this is about the Red Sox. They've been awful, no doubt. Hideous. Bobby Valentine has made more curious decisions in 15 games than Terry Francona did in eight years, and that's only a slight exaggeration. The bullpen is a Toby Borland Tribute Band. Proven players such as Kevin Youkilis and Clay Buchholz have been brutal, and it's natural to wonder whether they'll perform up to their expected levels. There are real issues to fret about.

Which is why it puzzles me that some fans and media seem to invent things to worry about on top of the real problems. Barring injury, Adrian Gonzalez is going to hit for power; his second home run last year didn't arrive until May 3. When he gets hot, he will carry them. Barring injury -- again with that caveat -- the starting rotation will be better than a season ago. Jon Lester has actually had a better April than he usually does. There's no reason Josh Beckett will not remain a top-of-the-rotation starter. Buchholz's command isn't there yet, but is that really unexpected for someone who didn't throw a meaningful pitch after mid-June last year?

And the back of the rotation will be better. Between them a season ago, John Lackey and Tim Wakefield gave up 202 earned runs. That's 31 fewer than Clayton Kershaw has allowed in his 738.2 career innings in the major leagues. Felix Doubront and Daniel Bard have both shown the potential to be more than back-end starters, and should Bard be called upon to rescue the bullpen beyond his start Friday, mediocre Aaron Cook and his career 4.53 ERA should still be an upgrade on what they had last year.

I know, you're probably not going to listen to me. Sometimes I'm too patient -- I was with my wife for 12 years before we got married -- and this Red Sox team is legitimate turmoil in some ways. But there's too much talent here for it to stumble for long, and the schedule ahead is favorable, with lots of Kansas City, Baltimore, Cleveland and Oakland in the near future. But you should listen to me, because reason is often proven right, and I'm still all right to smile.

What's that? Why yes, that is a line from a certain Guns 'n' Roses song. "Patience,'' as a matter of fact. Right, the one with the whistling.

And if it's going to prevent you from coming up with cockamamie sports problems to worry about, you bet I hope it's stuck in your head for the rest of the day.

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

Ten quick thoughts on the NFL's biggest transaction in years while imagining how strange it will be the first time we watch Peyton Manning go through his pre-snap histrionics in a uniform other than the Colts' ...

1. The 2012 NFL season might be sixth months from its opening kickoff, but I say give John Elway the Executive of the Year award now. Landing Manning -- even with the concerns about his health and the huge financial commitment -- is a coup. But that's not the most impressive part of the news that The Manning World Tour will end in Denver. By signing Manning, one of the greatest quarterbacks in league history, he has managed to find the only way he could displace and even trade the wildly popular Tim Tebow without enduring significant backlash. I've never bought that Elway, who knows more about what it takes to be a high-end NFL quarterback than just about anyone else on the planet, believes for a second that Tebow could survive and thrive as a starter. Now, by signing Manning, he has his out. It's risky but brilliant, and it's a greater escape than anything he ever did to avoid a pass rush.

2. With Manning throwing to them, Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker should prove to be legitimate high-quality NFL receivers. I was very impressed with Thomas during the playoff game at Foxborough -- he kept running precise routes and getting open even as Tebow would seemingly bounce every other pass in his direction. Decker, I'm not sure about -- he may have been the beneficiary of Tebow's inability to throw downfield more than anything else. But Manning made the likes of Blair White look good (and made mediocre Pierre Garcon a rich man), so Decker too should thrive.

3. Would you want the Patriots to trade for Tebow, which was apparently suggested as a vague possibility by ESPN's John Clayton this weekend? Me, I'll put my interest at 46.2 percent, just out of curiosity regarding how Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels might use him. (From what I gather, the quarterback spot in New England is taken.) Of course, 46.2 percent was also Tebow's miserable completion percentage in 2011, which is why ultimately I'd much prefer him playing quarterback for another team in the AFC East than to discover whether the Patriots could turn him into -- best-case scenario here -- the next Andy Johnson.

4. Wonder which uniform number Manning will wear in Denver. His familiar No. 18 is retired in honor of Frank Tripucka, one of the franchise's first stars during their AFL infancy. (And '80s NBA gunner Kelly Tripucka's dad.) Maybe he wears No. 8 in honor of his stage dad, Archie, or maybe he wears No. 1 to denote the number of Super Bowls he's won. [Update: According to the Denver Post, it's possible he'll wear No. 16, his number at Tennessee. No Tee Martin tribute. Figures.]

5. Thought the Niners, with that bloodthirsty defense and the addition of Mario Manningham and Randy Moss, were the best option for Manning if the No. 1 goal is to have as many Super Bowl victories as his kid brother. Would not be surprised if there is something to the notion that he didn't want to go to the NFC in part because Eli plays in the conference.

FULL ENTRY

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

This First-and-10 format was a staple of this blog in the early blogspot days, but I use it so seldom now that I might as well rename it the Ochocinco. The jokes, however, are as lame as ever. Because the best time to revive an old standby is 6:30 p.m. on a Friday, here are 10 thoughts on the Patriots ...

1. I understand the sentiment that the Patriots should do everything they can to bolster the roster while Tom Brady is still at the height of his powers. But the howling and entitlement among some fans after the first couple of days of free agency is ridiculous. They've arguably made the longest run of sustained excellence in NFL history, and they've done it in the salary cap era. In the last nine years, they've won at least 14 games four times, and never fewer than 10. Think about how difficult that is to achieve. I know, they haven't won a Super Bowl since 2004. You know why? Because it's really damned difficult to do. But they could have at least two more with a couple of bounces here and there, and that they are positioned to be a Super Bowl contender every single year should be confirmation enough that their approach works.

2. Besides, no official judgments should be made on how the Patriots have done in free agency until Brandon Lloyd picks an employer -- and I'm willing to wager he's coming here, because the receiver's sudden silence regarding whether the Patriots have shown interest tells you one thing: they are interested, and they've told him to keep it quiet.

3. Allow me just one more mini-rant on free-agent "splashes" and then I'll zip it. As Tom Curran noted recently, Adalius Thomas was a first-day signing before the 2007 season and the closest thing to a mega-move the Patriots have made in free agency. How'd that go? Well, as far as I know, he's still asleep in the back of a meeting room at Gillette Stadium as you read this. Meanwhile, what we perceive to be a splash -- the Rodney Harrison/Rosevelt Colvin double-whammy after the '02 season -- happened more than a week in. Patience, people. Let it play out.

4. It's not flashy, but you have to admire how they target under-the-radar players that they believe would fit here early in free agency, assuring that they collect a lot of players that they want while other teams are distracted by the shiny, sparkly so-called stars. Former Charger Steve Gregory is expected to bring versatility and good instincts to the defensive backfield, while ex-Bengal Jonathan Fanene's contract tells you all you need to know about how they regard him. I'm looking forward to watching both come September.

5. Leave it to Brandon Meriweather to mess up a great game-plan. I was hoping Meriweather would sign with the Jets, not just because he would be fun to play against twice per season, but because it would probably take them out of the running for LaRon Landry, whom I really hope ends up here despite his injury history and absurdly musclebound physique. Instead, Meriweather signed with Landry's former team, the Redskins, and now the Patriots and Jets are both trying to convince one of the few obviously appealing safeties on the market to come aboard.

FULL ENTRY

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

Now that the meat has been cut, let's take a Patriot-centric look at ol' No. 18, who became the most feared and respected individual opponent of the Brady/Belichick era ...

1. It was a graceful, gracious exit for Manning, and It's impossible to exaggerate how much Manning meant to Indiana. You've probably got a sense for this already, but it really hit me at the Super Bowl when Manning jerseys were far more prevalent than jerseys of any Patriot or Giant -- you know, guys who were actually playing in the game. It's akin to watching Larry Bird and his creaky back go play a final season or two with the Nets or Pacers in the early '90s.

2. No matter whether he plays up to his usual standard, it will never cease to be weird watching him play for a team other than Indy. He may not be the flop Joe Namath was with the Rams or Johnny Unitas with the Chargers, but it still doesn't seem right that Joe Montana was a Chief, and he had some good moments there. Dan Marino had it right, I think, retiring as a Dolphin rather than taking an offer from the Vikings.

3. If Manning does sign within the AFC South, the Colts' best counter move might be to bring Ty Law out of retirement.

4. He's not a better quarterback than Tom Brady. He's probably a better pure passer. And he's definitely a better actor.

5. As much fun as it would be to watch Peyton's New York Adventure, I he's too smart to join the Jets circus. The Rex Ryan bluster isn't his style, Santonio Holmes would drive him nuts, and he has many better options, including another one in the AFC East.

6. No, not as Brady's backup. It seems to me that Miami is the best fit, particularly if Reggie Wayne is riding in Manning's sidecar to his next destination. Manning, Wayne, Brandon Marshall, Reggie Bush . . . that's a pretty high-caliber offense.

7. The biggest disappointment of yesterday, at least from a New England standpoint, is the sudden belief that Wayne will go wherever Manning goes. The veteran receiver essentially confirmed interest in playing for the Patriots a few weeks ago when asked by the NFL Network's Willie McGinest, and with his smarts and precise route-running, he'd be a nice fit here. Or would have been a nice fit here, I guess.

8. Houston seems to be the consensus choice as Manning's most likely destination. But given the lingering concerns about his health, arm strength, and age, I'm not convinced that he's a better option than Matt Schaub.

9. I'm not even convinced Manning throws another NFL pass. Don't dismiss Rob Lowe's investigative reporting chops just yet. Could be confusing things here, but I'm pretty sure he literally won a Pulitzer for "About Last Night.''

10. Without applying context, it's pretty amazing to realize the 1998 Colts won just three games with Manning, Marshall Faulk, and Marvin Harrison on their roster. Of course, that was Manning's rookie year, and it took him some time to figure it out. Colts fans should keep that in mind when Andrew Luck has more interceptions than touchdowns next December.

11. Faulk ran for 1,319 yards and six TDs during his one year with Manning. He was traded to the Rams, with the Colts replacing him with first-round pick Edgerrin James. One thing James and Faulk had in common: A knack for getting stopped and/or clobbered by McGinest at key moments.

12. Peyton trivia, part 1: Whom did he usurp as the starting quarterback at the University of Tennessee as a freshman in 1994? Clue: He's also a professional athlete, and has been with his current team longer than Manning was with the Colts.

13. Peyton trivia, part 2: Who was the only other player to throw a pass for the Colts during Manning's rookie season? Clue: Three years later, he was catching passes from Tom Brady.

14. Peyton threw for more passing yards in his 14 seasons as a Colt (54,828) than his dad Archie (23,911) and brother Eli (27,579) combined for in their 19 total seasons in the NFL.

15. I'm not sure which is more absurd: That Manning is rated the 57th-best player in NFL history by the voting on profootball-reference.com's FanElorater, or that Tom Brady is 71st. Don't you have to put both in the top 30, whether you happen to like them or not?

16. If you're wondering how much Bill Belichick came to respect Manning, only one phrase is really necessary: 4th and 2. The real question to me is when that respect developed, given that the Patriots tormented him through the first half-dozen years of his career. I'll presume the respect was there before the second half of the 2006 AFC title game, but that was obviously the pivotal 30 minutes of football in Manning's career. You have to give him begrudging credit for vanquishing an old tormentor, and I'll miss the rivalry. It's probably the same way I'll feel when Mariano Rivera is no longer a Yankee.

17. If you're a Patriots fan, it was impossible while watching the Manning/Colts parting from afar to avoid wondering how Tom Brady's eventual farewell from the Patriots will go. And I don't know about you, but it convinced me beyond a doubt that Belichick needs to do everything he can this offseason to give Brady the surrounding talent to win that fourth ring.

18. As for today's Completely Random Former College Teammate of Peyton Card:

The answer to the first trivia question is Todd Helton, who suffered a knee injury during the 1994 season for the Vols, with Manning stepping in and never again stepping aside. Baseball seems to have worked out OK for him, however. "Being around guys like that made it an easy decision,'' said Helton, who also backed up Heath Shuler with the Vols, in an interview with The New York Times two years ago.

Second trivia answer: receiver Torrance Small, who threw one incomplete pass for the '98 Colts and caught four passes in three games for the 2001 Patriots.

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

Ron Jaworski has signed a five-year extension with ESPN for what the network touted in a press release this afternoon as an "expanded multi-platform analyst role." But the announcement undersold the biggest news:

Jaworski will no longer be part of the "Monday Night Football'' broadcast team.

ESPN will go with a booth of holdovers Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden next year, just the sixth time in the program's 42-year history in which it has had a two-person booth.

The move is surprising since Jaworski's Xs-and-Os acumen -- he has the ability to make what he learns during extensive film study accessible to casual fans and diehards alike -- proved a nice balance to Gruden's outsized and occasionally over-the-top personality.

Jaworski will be prominent on studio programs such as "Monday Night Countdown,'' "Sunday NFL Countdown,'' and "NFL Matchup.'' ESPN said the move is not a demotion for Jaworski, citing his "greater year-round presence,'' but the list of sports broadcasting jobs as prominent as being part of the "Monday Night Football'' team is short, and the program is ESPN's crown jewel.

“I am grateful for having the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity of working on Monday Night Football the past five seasons with Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden and so many other talented people behind the scenes who make the show so great, and I look forward to bringing my passion and knowledge of the game to more fans in more places than ever before on any and all football topics,” said Jaworski in ESPN's press release.

He told Sports Illustrated's Richard Deitsch that he was told about the move on Monday. "“It’s bittersweet,'' he said, ''but I’m excited and thrilled with some of the projects moving forward.”

It will be interesting to see whether Gruden, an enthusiastic, entertaining, but rarely critical analyst, suffers or thrives without Jaworski offsetting him. Gruden signed a five-year contract with ESPN in October, but the former Bucs and Raiders coach's name is often rumored whenever there is a prominent NFL coaching opening.

Should he eventually leave, ESPN, which struggled to find the right "MNF'' mix before Tirico-Jaworski-Gruden, will have a vacancy with no obvious heir apparent.

“I thank Ron for the great contributions he has made to Monday Night Football,” said ESPN president John Skipper. “With two strong analysts in Ron and Jon, these moves will better utilize their strengths and benefit our entire NFL presentation.”

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

In the gray corridors beneath Lucas Oil Stadium, the contrast of joy and pain was so drastic Sunday night that it almost became disorienting if you swiveled from one scene to the other too fast.

In an open area -- if it was a room, it was a room hosting a party so raucous that it bled into the hallway -- the Giants whooped and hollered and embraced and piled up the trash talk. They were the Super Bowl champions, righteously so. They were delirious.

Down the hall and in another open room, a distance as close as the game itself, the Patriots arrived, one by one, to stand there with their open wounds in front of the media swarm. They were dutiful and resolute, desperately so. They were devastated.

It's probably not headline news to suggest sympathy doesn't come easily to sports writers as a species. Dealing with men who make exponentially more money, who date the world's most glamorous women, and who -- this really bugs sports writers -- eat at restaurants for free can lead to an accelerated onset of envy.

Most of us in this business seem to have a predilection for cynicism anyway. It's not just easy to become jaded -- it's an inevitability if you don't constantly remind yourself how damn fortunate you are to be writing about games for a living.

But even my fellow notepad-toters with the charm of an eel had to feel for Wes Welker, the ball having slipped from his sure hands, and with it, his red-tinted eyes told you, a chance to hold the Lombardi Trophy. Hell, yes, you had to feel for him, hearing him blame himself in a whisper that barely could be heard over the Giants whooping in the distance.

Then there was Brady, possibly the only man ever to walk the earth to look pallid and empty while being consoled by a supermodel. Maybe Gisele wouldn't make for much of a teammate -- a quarterback never blames his receivers, and by proxy that applies to the quarterback's wife. But watching their tender, personal moment unfold in front of countless cameras and slack jaws, it was apparent she knew how just much that single football game meant to her husband, who at that moment looked like he had everything in the world and nothing at all.

As we waited for the next player to arrive and spill his emotions for immediate documentation, a fellow writer I respect remarked that she felt bad for the younger players who still don't know what it feels like to win a Super Bowl.

Their disappointment was certainly palpable, from the noble Rob Gronkowski, who steadfastly refused to confirm that his ankle injury had rendered him a relative bystander (had he played with the ferocity and joy we saw all season, he would have become as popular nationally as he is in New England), to stoic James Ihedigbo, defiant Patrick Chung, and Jerod Mayo, who was still in full uniform, as if keeping it on meant it hadn't ended, not yet.

But it also dawns on you during the sad aftermath that there are longstanding veterans on this team who don't know the overwhelming feeling of standing on a podium beneath a shower of confetti as the silver trophy is raised to the sky. The Patriots have three Super Bowls, of course, but none in the past seven years. Logan Mankins has never won. Neither has Stephen Gostkowski. Or Welker.

It's why the scene of Brady with his consoling wife was so poignant, why Welker's matter-of-fact self-flagellation will stay with me for a while. The veterans, they knew. There may be other chances, but they are so damn hard to come by, so dependent on hard work and endurance and talent and luck. They knew. A beautiful opportunity had been lost for good.

That's the cruel thing about waiting until next year in the NFL: The standings can be shuffled with just one legal act of violence on a Sunday afternoon. Bernard Pollard drives his helmet through Brady's kneecap halfway through the first quarter of the first game of the 2008 season, and plans to avenge their lost chance at perfection became an unwanted debate as to whether untested Matt Cassel should play or someone from the QB junkyard like Daunte Culpepper should be signed. The best team in the NFL this year may have been the Pittsburgh Steelers. Injuries deprived them of a chance to confirm it.

That the Patriots made the most of their opportunities this year -- right up until the season's fateful final moments, anyway -- is one reason we'll remember them well even if the final chapter ended with a cruel twist. (Watching the Welker drop is painful, but the what-if that will linger with me is the Hail Mary. Gronk was so ... damn ... close to the greatest ending in sports history.) This was a very likable team, one that won its coach's respect weeks ago with its effort and determination, if not its raw talent.

The final irony was that an extraordinarily efficient and diverse passing offense let them them down in the end, while a defense that still perplexes me as to whether or not its "improvement" against all those subpar quarterbacks was genuine essentially did its job in the Super Bowl. The offense, this offense, should have been able to provide more than 21 points. It stinks that two near-misses have dented Tom Brady's legacy in the eyes of some, because if the defense can make a stand after his go-ahead drive in Super Bowl XLII or his effectiveness isn't reduced after being crushed by Justin Tuck with 21 minutes remaining in this Super Bowl, he has five rings and there is no debate over who the greatest of all-time is. Sometimes I think we've forgotten what a lousy quarterback looks like around here.

Instead, the pursuit of that elusive fourth ring begins anew for Brady and Belichick next fall, or immediately really. With four picks in the first two rounds, immediate help to the defense should be on the way, provided they avoid the Butlers and Wilhites and Wheatleys and find a couple of defensive backs who can actually follow a game plan and make a play from time to time. The offense should again be a precise machine -- I can't wait to see what Gronk has in store in his third season, and the hunch here is that a legitimate three-down running back will emerge from the current depth chart, whether it's Stevan Ridley or Shane Vereen. The future is bright even as Brady moves into his mid-30s, football middle age to be generous.

A sixth Super Bowl appearance in 12 years seems a reasonable prognostication. But we also know how difficult the journey is just to get there. Which is why it stays with you -- whether you're a veteran, a rookie, or a reporter taking it all in -- when it ends just an arm's length from the pinnacle.

During our always arbitration-eligible Friday chat, we discussed the Super Bowl with our usual 20/20 hindsight, where the Patriots go from here, the state of the Red Sox as pitchers and catchers begin to arrive, and the usual media matters. Check in below to relive the fun.

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

INDIANAPOLIS -- I arrived in this unlikely host city skeptical of two things regarding Super Bowl XLVI: Indy's chances of rising to the occasion, and the Patriots' chances of departing with a fourth Lombardi Trophy.

Today marks my eighth day here, and I assure you there isn't a hint of Stockholm Syndrome in play when I tell you that Indianapolis has been such an outstanding site that another Super Bowl here would draw a consensus of applause from the media and fans who have checked in to this hospitable, easily navigated, sneaky-fun city this week.

Oh, and also, that other opinion has changed.

I believe -- I'm convinced -- the Patriots are going to win Super Bowl XLVI.

Tom Brady will match Joe Montana in jewelry and legacy. Bill Belichick will be regarded, even among his detractors, as a coaching equal to the man for whom the championship trophy is named. Kevin Faulk will ride a duckboat into retirement.

The Patriots, in the delirious aftermath, will admit that hell, yeah, revenge was a motive. They will damn well will be aware of this.

It will feel so familiar that you'll forget it's been seven years since the Patriots were last champions. You'll buy the t-shirt the next day, and a couple for the kids, too.

It will not be easy; it will be intense, the most difficult challenge they have faced all season. The Giants have been a force in the second half of the season. They beat the Patriots in Foxborough, without Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw. They beat arguably the best offense (Green Bay) and the best defense (San Francisco) on the road to get here.

The Giants are brash, physical, and formidable, and their strengths match up with the Patriots' perceived weaknesses, or at least their vulnerabilities. Seeing Ty Law and Mike Haynes roaming around the media festivities this week made a Patriots fan wish the current team had someone, anyone, near their equivalent. Maybe Raymond Clayborn is available?

But its sometimes been lost in the perpetual hype this week that the Giants have flaws, too. Real ones. While Bradshaw is a threat, the Giants struggle to run the ball because the offensive line is somewhere between patchwork and porous. Vince Wilfork could punish them the way he did the Ravens during his tour de force in the AFC Championship game.

When it's on, their pass rush masks mediocre linebackers and defensive backs. But if the rush is stagnated or delayed by a Patriots offensive line that has been waiting four years for redemption, or should Bill O'Brien use the screen game to use the Giants' aggressiveness against them, the Patriots are guaranteed to keep the scoreboard operators busy. The Giants were 25th in the league in points allowed (25) and 29th in passing yardage (255.1). As well as it has performed recently, this is not Lawrence Taylor's Oldsmobile.

Still, the Patriots cannot afford, against this justifiably confident opponent, to play an incomplete game. If BenJarvus Green-Ellis can't channel Corey Dillon '04, Antowain Smith '01, '03 will do just fine.

Patrick Chung and the group of fledgling defensive backs must unfailingly execute the game plan structured to contain Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham.

Rob Gronkowski must be more than a decoy, and yesterday's pool report that his limp was absent is beyond encouraging.

Stephen Gostkowski must make the right turn should he find himself at the fork in the road that leads in one direction to Norwood, and the other to Vinatieri.

And an improbable hero might be required. It will not be Chad Ochocinco, whom Brady hasn't trusted to be in the right place at the right time all season; why would he have that faith now? My hunch: Deion Branch. He's seized the Super Bowl stage before. The Giants may overlook him, but Brady never will.

Tom Brady cannot flinch at the sight of Jason Pierre-Paul bearing down and leave points on the field. And he won't. He is as insanely competitive as anyone I've seen since Michael Jordan, and I'd bet you he'd knock a season off his career for one victory today. It would only be appropriate for Brady to collect his fourth ring with a transcendent performance.

Seeing this team for the past eight days, I've come to truly believe in them. Their coach certainly does, and of course that's a fine indicator. But there's a ... a calm about this team, a quiet confidence, that is palpable when you talk to the Matt Lights and Jerod Mayos. It never wavered all week here in Indianapolis, and it's enough to make a skeptic start wondering what weaknesses they've detected in their opponent that they know they can expose. They know something.

A victory in Super Bowl XLVI will require discipline, talent, ferocity, and poise. A little luck wouldn't hurt, either. They are due some against this opponent, after all.

A lot must go right to beat the dangerous but flawed Giants today.

It will.

They've won their first three Lombardi Trophies by three. They'll win their fourth by four.

Patriots 28, Giants 24. We'll remember this edition of the Patriots, and the city in which the fourth championship was secured, with enduring fondness.

Originally wrote this in 2001, just as the Patriots were emerging but old friend Curtis Martin was habitually haunting them with those smooth cutback moves. Seems appropriate to repost today given all that's happening this weekend. Congrats, No. 28. It's all worked out beautifully for the Patriots, of course, but they never should have let you get away.

* * *

He is the Ghost of Patriots Past, a twice-a-season apparition. He is a reminder of those hopeful, happy days of the mid-'90s, when Drew Bledsoe was the Golden Boy QB, Terry Glenn suffered injuries instead of faked them, and visions of Super Bowl victories danced in our heads.

He's the one that got away from the Pats - and he's been getting away ever since.

Hello again, Curtis Martin. Back to haunt us once more, we presume?

Today, the New England Patriots, 6-5 and breathing again, take on the first-place, 7-3 New York Jets in what's shaping up to be a season-defining showdown. It's certain to be another compelling chapter in this rich, raucous rivalry.

And so, for the eighth time since Bill Parcells lured the beloved Pro Bowl running back away with a six-year, $36 million contract in February of '98, the Pats will have to confront Martin, their friend-turned-foe.

It's never easy. It's almost four full seasons later, and only now are the Pats recovering from Martin's devastating Foxboro farewell. It's not an exaggeration to say that this single transaction - by far Parcells's most productive trip to the grocery store - impacted the balance of power in the AFC East for a half-decade.

How has Martin tortured us? Let us count the ways.

First, the stat sheet: Martin has run for 100-plus yards in five of the seven games against New England. He has scored a touchdown in four of the seven. Considering that four of the teams' last five meetings have been decided by seven points or less, you could safely say he has been the difference. Naturally, Martin scored the lone touchdown in the Jets' 10-3 victory in Week 2 this season.

Then, the standings: In Martin's three years in New England, the Pats regularly beat up the Jets at recess and took their lunch money, winning five of six. Since he left, they are 1-6. In other words, the team that has Martin in its backfield is 11-2 in this suddenly lopsided rivalry.

All these numbers paint a pretty convincing case for his value. Yet Pats fans know Martin's worth can't be judged solely by columns of digits on a scoreboard page. There's no category for all that he means to a football team.

Martin is equal parts style and substance, a shifty, instinctive runner whose grace belies uncommon determination and grit. He is the rarest breed: a superstar whose humility and class appeal to Average Joe football fan.

Martin's name is in lights. It should be stitched across the breast of his shirt. It's no wonder you still see the occasional well-worn, red, white and blue "Martin 28" jersey in the Foxboro stands.

How it frustrates us that he's no longer wearing the jersey himself. He is missed, still.

I'll spare you the painful rehash of his utterly unnecessary departure. Just allow me to note that if Pats owner Bob Kraft hadn't insinuated Martin would have a short shelf-life, if Kraft hadn't spent much of the '97 season gloating about what cheap labor Martin was, if Kraft hadn't paid turnstiles Todd Rucci and Max Lane a combined $22 million before offering a single peso to Martin, if Kraft had remembered Parcells often called Martin one of his three favorite players he'd ever coached, well, then maybe the Pats wouldn't have had to spend three high draft picks in failed attempts to replace him.

Yeah, I'll spare you the painful rehash. Just let me note that Kraft bungled the situation with such complete and total incompetence, you have to believe Dan Duquette was giving him management tips.

Martin should have been a Patriot for life, which is why it's hard to fathom that he now has more service time as a Jet. This is Martin's seventh NFL season, his fourth in New York. He ran for 3,799 yards for the Pats; he's run for 4,938 for the Jets.

There's no use denying it: When his portrait hangs in the halls of Canton, the dominant colors will be green and white.

Martin's contributions considered, it's hardly a news flash that the green-and-white has dominated the rivalry. But perhaps, starting today, these new and improved Pats will show their true colors, and the balance of power will shift again.

For the first time since Martin left, there is a feeling of genuine hope in Foxboro, a sense that happy days are indeed here again. Maybe it's because of the exciting emergence of the new Golden Boy QB, Tom Brady, or perhaps it's because Antowain Smith has reminded us of the benefits of a powerful running game.

Probably, though, it's because Coach/No-Nonsense Head Honcho Bill Belichick has molded the team in his image. The Pats are tough and disciplined and they take no crap, and if you are skeptical, just watch Bryan Cox running around out there on a broken leg today, then try telling me these are still Pete Carroll's Patsies.

This, Pats fans, is a team you can root for. You even might say it's a team Martin would enjoy playing for.

By 4 p.m. this afternoon, we should have a pretty clear idea if we'll be rooting for them later into the winter than we had imagined. The Pats win today, and we can start wondering if doomed old Foxboro Stadium might get a stay of execution for at least one more game.

Before we dare speak of the playoffs, though, the Pats must do their part. They must exorcise those green-and-white demons. They must tackle a galloping ghost.

To beat the Jets, they must stop Curtis Martin.

And prove that four seasons after he moved on, they finally have, too.

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

INDIANAPOLIS -- A couple of links to my stuff in the paper the the past few days that didn't get posted here. And, some wisdom from Cris Collinsworth, whose '81 Sports Illustrated cover is presented without comment.

* Some thoughts from Rodney Harrison -- who will be ubiquitous on Sunday's broadcast -- on why revenge will be a motive against the Giants.

I didn't use it in the column, but Collinsworth, who played in two Super Bowls with the Bengals (and lost both to the Niners) agreed with Harrison that revenge is a strong motivator.

"I can relate to that a little bit,'' Collinsworth said. "There were only four or five of us who were still around and I think that's fairly true of the Patriots, that there's probably 10 or 11 of them who played in Super Bowl 42. It's a new team. But for those guys, they'll never forget. Some of the guys who played in the '81 Super Bowl played really well in the '88 Super Bowl, and you could tell that there was a maturity level to it.

"I also think players who have been in Super Bowls, who have played in Super Bowls, have a distinct advantage. The first Super Bowl you play in, you're in the Super Bowl, and you're looking around and checking out the movie stars. I can still remember Diana Ross, who sang the National Anthem, walking in front of me, about this close, and we were like, 'Aw, maaaan.' I still joke with the 49ers guys that if she'd walked in front of your sideline, we'd have been up 20-0 at halftime. She completely destroyed us."

Collinsworth said the disappointment of losing a Super Bowl never truly fades.

"It was a great experience and I wouldn't trade it for anything, but the pain of losing two is almost twice as much. I'll tell you a story. I once asked Joe Gibbs, 'You won three and you lost one, how much time do you spend thinking about the one that you lost?' And he said, 'All I think about.' You expect to win, you expect that to happen. And when you lose, it's like someone takes a cup of cold water and dumps it over your head. Only, you never warm back up. I'm 53 years old, and I still think about it every day. Every day.''

* Many readers have asked as the season has progressed where Greg Dickerson been on the Celtics telecasts. As he discusses with great candor here, he was diagnosed with epilepsy after suffering a major seizure two days before Christmas and a lesser one two weeks ago before a game. He's back on the Celtics' sideline this week and plans to handle his usual workload the rest of the season.

* Finally, my column from Thursday's paper on Radio Row. Shaughnessy noted this today, but it was beyond bizarre to watch Tim Tebow and Joe Montana get out of the elevator at the same time yesterday, with one getting swarmed and the other nearly getting trampled. Good thing for Montana he's still fairly elusive at 55.

During our always super Friday chat, we discussed Gronk's chances of effectiveness Sunday, the Patriots' air of quiet confidence this week, and the usual media matters. (A Red Sox question or two also slipped past the filter.) Check in below to relive the fun.

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

INDIANAPOLIS -- Ryan Wendell won't know whether he and his Patriots teammates will leave here with football's ultimate prize until their Super Bowl 46 showdown with the New York Giants concludes late Sunday evening.

But the third-year offensive lineman is already assured of departing with at least one prize: A black bra, his reward from "The Insider'' host Kevin Frazier and his co-host, R&B singer Ciara, for having a passing knowledge of Madonna lyrics.

In everyday context, an NFL offensively lineman being goaded into "vogueing" by a singer adorned in skyscraper heels, leather pants, and an undersized Tom Brady jersey could be considered one more sign that the apocalypse is near.

But on NFL Media Day, the league's annual theater of the ridiculous in which more than 5,000 credentialed media members descend on obligated players and coaches, it was just one more silly vignette from an hour-long availability session dotted with them.

"I've always wanted one of those," Wendell said, upon receiving his parting gift.

"You could wear it under your uniform," Ciara suggested helpfully.

As Wendell turned to show his reward to some lingering linemates -- sadly, the wait proved to be in vain for one to make the obvious booby prize joke -- one of the day's chief lessons proved just a few steps away: It helps to have big hair. And that applies whether you're a relentlessly chipper entertainment reporter who would likely answer in the affirmative if asked whether a football field has bases, or an obscure Patriot going for a distinctive look.

Ross Ventrone, the Patriots' special teamer who was cut and re-signed so many times this season that he may well have broken the waiver wire, was clearly reveling in the attention. "Ross Ventrone, aka Rusty Benson, Fox 59,'' he said, nailing a promo on the first take and even slipping in an alias. That camera crew moved on, another arriving immediately to take his place. "How do I care for my hair?" said Ventrone, earnestly repeating a question about his lengthy mane. "Shampoo. Conditioner. I keep it healthy. Love the product. Need it."

Tiquan Underwood, the Patriots' easygoing young receiver, was scarcely noticed on the field this season, with three catches for 30 yards; he's probably more remembered for a pass he dropped against the Eagles. But his breathtaking '90s-style high top fade hair style has made him instantly recognizable to New England sports fans -- the camera never misses him when he attends a Celtics game -- and it made him a favorite of the television cameras on today's stage.

"I just like to be different, to be my own person and have my own style,'' said Underwood to a British television reporter who asked him seven consecutive questions about the motivation for his 'do.

"Yeah, I'd say about 80 percent of the questions have been about my hair," Underwood said later. "Maybe 90 percent. But that's cool. This day is supposed to be fun, right?"

That seemed to be the universal attitude of the Patriots, who arrived on the Lucas Oil Stadium field, accompanied by the Dropkick Murphys' "I'm Shipping Up To Boston,'' at 10 a.m. to fulfill their duties. For the first time, Media Day tickets were sold to fans, and while it's tempting to suggest P.T. Barnum had nothing on the NFL (tickets were priced at $25 but were in such demand that there were a few stray scalpers generating some business outside the stadium), their frequent cheers suggested that they were pleased with their investment.

Fans were given radios that allowed them to listen to any of the dozen or so players on individual podiums. Rob Gronkowski, sans the walking boot on his injured left ankle, was his usual agreeable and goofy self, as popular with the crowd listening in as he was with the swarm of reporters. Only Tom Brady drew more attention, and he effortlessly charmed his way through his fifth Media Day, including a good-natured jab at a 20-something man all spandexed up as a super hero.

He introduced himself as Pick Boy. Your kids may know him from Nickelodeon, but Brady didn't.

"Nice outfit,'' Brady said. "Halloween?"

"I asked him if his regular season game face was different from his Super Bowl game face,'' said Pick Boy, who didn't seem at all disturbed that he was wearing what looked like a green spandex onesie and a cape. "You should write down that he made a face and even gave me some sound effects."

The spotlight found just about everyone. One moment Aaron Lavarius, No. 60 in your program and probably a who's-he? even to the most diehard Patriots fans, stood alone watching Bill Belichick answer questions from his podium. The next, the practice squad defensive end was being interviewed by Marisol Gonzalez, a Mexican television reporter wearing a red dress that may well have been illegal in Indiana.

It did not take much coercion on her part to get Lavarius to put on a sombrero for his interview, which consisted of him sputtering out a few words of Spanish before getting a hug.

It was arguably a more dignified turn than singing Madonna lyrics. And don't tell Wendell, even Ciara's fandom proved fickle. By the time the Giants players were took the field at noon, her Brady jersey had been replaced by a Victor Cruz gamer.

No word whether he too was told to wear game-day undergarments.

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

While he's been refreshingly engaging here in the buildup to Super Bowl 46, it's fair to say Bill Belichick has a well-established reputation for keeping even the most fundamental information close to his hoodie.

But the Patriots coach has never masked his affection for his time with the New York Giants, most evidently during the NFL Network's "A Football Life: Bill Belichick'' documentary that debuted in September.

Visiting the soon-to-be-demolished Giants Stadium for the final time, Belichick became downright wistful outside the coaches room where his first great successes in the NFL percolated.

“It’s a small room,’’ said, his voice trembling. “As I stand here . . . it’s surprising how small it is. Damn, I spent a lot of hours in that room. I loved it here. I loved it here.’’

One of the coaches who spent considerable time in that room as a fellow assistant on Bill Parcells's staff is Belichick's sideline rival this week.

Tom Coughlin was the Giants' wide receivers coach from 1988-90, a time when Belichick was building his name and his resume as the mastermind coordinating the fearsome defense of Lawrence Taylor, Carl Banks, and Leonard Marshall.

Knowing how Belichick feels about his Giants days, it comes as no surprise that he was effusive in his praise of Coughlin during his press conference Monday when he was asked to compare him to Parcells.

But it's not just because of their shared experience in those heady days at Giants Stadium that Belichick respects him.

"I respect a lot of things about Tom – his evaluation of talent, the way he attacks teams, his consistency, his discipline, his team’s toughness, their resiliency – I would say all of those things. Bill [Parcells] has a lot of those characteristics as a coach. I don’t know who rubs off on whom. That was the way Tom was as an assistant coach. He was very disciplined and very detail-oriented. He demanded a lot from his players. He was fair, but firm, like he is now.

"Tom is a good guy, and he has a good sense of humor. He is a good guy to be around. On the practice field and the game field, you have a job to do. He was demanding of them in a good way. There is a lot of Bill Parcells in that, too. He is demanding. He can shoot the needle in there to you a little bit, and get a little dig in. He expects a lot. He has high expectations. There is a different style, but some similarities as a coach. I don’t know how much one rubbed off on the other, as much as it’s kind of the way they are.”

When Belichick talks candidly and in anecdotal detail about football -- his experiences, why certain things work, why specific players are effective -- it's a fascinating football clinic that could make a lot of money if tickets were available. It's been a treat to listen to him in that mode during the first two days here. He spoke at length on so many topics today -- one question about what he learned between his head coaching stints in Cleveland and New England brought forth a nearly 10-minute answer -- that one wished the press conference lasted another hour.

On what he learned working with the Giants' coaching staff back in the day: “It was awesome. We had a great staff and great players. One of the biggest things I learned, that I can’t do today, but I know, is how tough those players were. We practiced every day in pads, every single day in pads. There were years that we practiced every single day on the turf before we had the grass practice fields up there on the hill, or it was being rebuilt or something happened. How we did 9-on-7, which is a good-tempo running drill, and how we did that on a regular basis. In training camp, we went out in pads every day. We hit every day. We did 9-on-7 every day. There was no way Bill [Parcells] would go out on the field without doing 9-on-7. We’d skip stretching before we’d skip 9-on-7."

On the toughness of those Giants teams compared to today's players: "Going back to last year, and even this year, going out in pads, working on 9-on-7, having more contact work in practice, we’d get that look a little bit like, ‘I don’t know if the players can do it.’ I’m thinking to myself, ‘Can’t do it?’ We were in pads on Fridays with the Giants, and nobody said anything. That’s the way it was. You went out there and practiced. I know what players are capable of doing because of how demanding we were with them from a physical standpoint, and that certainly didn’t lessen their aggressiveness or their toughness in games. That was a physical defense. That was a physical offensive line.

"Even getting ready for the Super Bowl against Buffalo [in 1990], the way we ran the ball in that game. That started on the practice field with the tempo in practice. When you get those guys crashing into each other – Jumbo Elliott and Mark Bavaro blocking Lawrence Taylor, Carl Banks, Jim Burt and all them – they just lined up and played football. I know it was a different era, but it will never be like that again.''

Belichick was particularly introspective when he talked about taking the techniques he learned with the Giants to his first head coaching job in Cleveland.

"When I got [to New York] in 1979, relative to what the Giants had done previous to that, it was kind of a country-club atmosphere, from what I understood.

It was a little bit different than what I had been used to. I learned a lot from the mental and physical toughness standpoint that [former coach] Ray Perkins and then Bill, built their teams with. Maybe I took it a little too far in Cleveland, I don’t know. It was kind of the same thing when I got there. People said that we were too demanding and we were doing too much. I was thinking to myself, ‘I was with the Giants for 12 years. I saw this every day for 12 years. Don’t tell me we can’t go out there and have 9-on-7 two days in a row. I know we can.’ ”

After he was fired in Cleveland during a 1995 season in which Art Modell's plan to move the storied Browns to Baltimore turned the team into the ultimate lame duck, Belichick joined Parcells's staff in New England, where his lessons in being a head coach at hte NFL level continued.

"I certainly learned a lot that year being around Bill for three years with basically the same staff that had moved down to New York,'' Belichick said, mentioning Romeo Crennel, Dante Scarnecchia, and Al Groh. "All of the things that you do as a head coach, when you become an assistant coach again, you understand more what the head coach is going through when you have been a head coach, than when you are an assistant coach and you haven’t had that responsibility. It was a great learning experience for me."

In "A Football Life,'' Belichick had some chuckles at Parcells's expense, such as remembering how Parcells would "light into four cigarettes" after they would play racquetball. The relationship of course grew more complicated with Belichick's infamous resignation as the HC of the NYJ in 1999, a day in which he was considerably less articulate than he was Monday. But during the past two days, he's been quick to praise Parcells, who affectionately called Belichick and Coughlin "my guys" earlier this week.

"Bill was very generous in some of the information and experiences he shared with me during those four years from 1996 to 1999 – the situations he was dealing with, the things that would come up with the team and how you would handle this and how you would handle that,'' Belichick said. "Our relationship is a little bit different because I had been a head coach. He would say, ‘Look, you’ve been a head coach. Here is the situation. How would you handle this or that?’ And I would watch him handle it. I have a little different perspective on it than I had during those years with the Giants when I wasn’t a head coach, and I probably didn’t fully understand some of the dynamics of various decisions, whether it was personnel decisions or – as it was in the 1990s – salary-cap decisions, strategic decisions and logistics and planning.

"It was certainly a great learning experience for me from a different point of view."

Funny, the same could be said for those fortunate enough to hear Bill Belichick elaborate on his football life Monday.

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

Even by the usual standards of tabloid Super Bowl hype, which is to say that there are very few standards at all, this is absurd.

As I wrote last night, the New York tabloids are all over Tom Brady for daring to suggest that the Patriots just might win Super Bowl 46 and perhaps would be welcomed home warmly by their fans should they do so.

Actually, he wasn't even that bold. Here are his precise words from yesterday's pep rally at Gillette Stadium:

"We're going down there, and we're going down there for one reason. We're going to give it our best and hopefully we have a lot more people at our party next weekend."

If anything, it was a pretty uninspiring rallying cry from Brady. The one thing you're going down there for is . . . "to give it our best"? Whoa, now there's some bulletin board material right there.

So what do the New York tabs turn it into?

Oh, just this:

And this:

Talk about making something out of nothing -- actually, that should probably be the papers' slogan.

A half-dozen Giants will be available to the media later this afternoon. It will be interesting to see whether any are genuinely annoyed by Brady's milquetoast pep rally comments. Athletes do love milking those perceived slights as motivation, whether they're real, imagined, or quotes twisted and exaggerated beyond recognition on the back page.

* * *

Pop quiz: Who is the Patriots all-time leading rusher in the postseason?

OK, so Corey Dillon, the workhorse on the stacked 2004 champs, might not be the most difficult answer to deduce. Dillon had 508 yards in eight postseason games during his three seasons in New England.

I'll only briefly mention my perpetual lament that Curtis Martin should be first on this list, and it's with a respectful smile that we acknowledge Kevin Faulk is third (425 yards in 19 games).

So who is second? Perhaps this will surprise you, and perhaps it won't should you occasionally reacquaint yourself with "Three Games to Glory,'' but the is two-time Super Bowl champion Antowain Smith, who ran for 456 yards in six career games.

I bring this up not only as a reminder that Smith was an essential if unspectacular contributor to the Patriots' first two champions, but because he set the blueprint a decade ago for an approach that may benefit the Patriots Sunday.

In Super Bowl XXXVI, Smith ran for 92 yards on 18 carries in the Patriots' 20-17 victory over the Rams. (That's one more carry and 16 more yards than the Rams' celebrated Marshall Faulk had in the game.) Two years later, he ran 26 times for 83 yards, including a 2-yard touchdown run in the second quarter, as the Patriots beat the Panthers, 32-29, in Super Bowl XXXVIII.

Through two games this postseason, BenJarvus Green-Ellis has run for a total output similar to Smith's in that second Super Bowl -- 28 carries, 96 yards, and a score.

Sunday, however, it is not difficult to envision him having a game similar to Smith's first Super Bowl. With the Giants' ferocious front four frothing at the mouth to get a shot at Tom Brady, and with Rob Gronkowski likely to be something less than 100 percent, it makes sense that the Patriots would mix in the run a little more early in the game.

Green-Ellis ran as well as he has all season against the Ravens, he's healthy, he does not fumble . . . and he might just be the wild-card in the Patriots' plan of attack.

So what if he's not flashy. Emulating what Antowain Smith did seems a pretty effective way of becoming a champion.

* * *

Indianapolis is a nice city. Or should I say, the people are extraordinarily nice in that unassuming Midwestern way. Inevitably, the cheeriness makes you like the city even if the official color seems to be slate and the architecture is best described as practical.

That was supposed to be a compliment, even if it doesn't read that way upon further review.

There is one small part of Indianapolis that is sure to generate warm feelings among Boston sports fans. And no, it's not a mural of all of Peyton Manning's crushing losses to the Patriots through the years.

Driving into the city along West Drive, just before arriving at media headquarters at the J.W. Marriott hotel, there's a small brown street sign near a block of businesses, museums, and, of all things, the NCAA headquarters. On the sign it reads:

"Robert D. Orr Plaza."

Now, every New Englander of a certain generation knows Bobby Orr's middle name does not begin with a D -- he's the esteemed Robert Gordon Orr, the greatest hockey player ever to lace 'em up, and don't give me that Gretzky stuff.

But it's just close enough that it stands as a nice reminder of home, where the people aren't always so friendly until you earn it, the architecture is often timeless and spectacular, and there's no debate over the greatest quarterback of this generation, let alone the greatest hockey player of all time.

Be sure to stop by our always strike-throwing Friday chat -- note yet another shift to 2:30 p.m. -- during which we'll discuss Super Bowl 46, the Oswalt/Floyd/Jackson possibilities, why we should be encouraged by the Celtics, and the usual media matters. Bring along a crate of minneolas and check in below to join the fun.

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

The 10-year anniversary of my favorite game and maybe yours in Patriots lore passed Thursday without tribute here, and while this is probably a tactic that would get a fella in deep trouble with his wife, I say it's never too late to acknowledge a wonderful thing.

The Patriots' 16-13 overtime victory over the Oakland Raiders on January 19, 2002 is officially recorded as an AFC Divisional Playoff game. In Oakland, and many other parts of the country stricken with Patriot envy and/or loathing, it's known as the Tuck Rule game.

Here, it's the Snow Bowl. The final game at Foxboro Stadium, and unofficially the game when the Patriots' prolonged run of excellence began. Excluding certain pivotal events from October 2004, there's not a Boston sporting event in my lifetime that I remember more fondly.

The three Super Bowl championships were wonderful and fulfilling. But for sentimental purposes, for warm memories on a cold day, nothing trumps the Snow Bowl. We'll see other Super Bowls. But we'll never again see an atmosphere and an outcome like that.

A decade later, roughly XXXVI viewings of "Three Games To Glory" later, and I still have no idea how Adam Vinatieri knuckled that tying 45-yard field goal through the snowflakes, and then, the uprights.

Yet the Snow Bowl comes to mind today not just because of the calendar's reminder. The delightful happenings on the field Sunday at Gillette Stadium were more than enough to send a Patriots fan into a spiral of nostalgia, and some certain guests of honor made it feel like good old days have never left even if the names on the jerseys have changed.

When Sterling Moore poked what would have been the winning touchdown out of Ravens receiver Lee Evans's hands on Baltimore's failed final drive, it reminded you of something Ty Law, that ol' clutch cornerback, might have pulled off against the Colts seven or eight years ago. That Law, an honorary co-captain along with Drew Bledsoe, Troy Brown and Tedy Bruschi Sunday, was at Gillette Stadium to witness the moment only added to the pleasant symmetry of what this franchise has accomplished.

While the gracious Bledsoe, who recovered from a serious injury but never recovered his job from Brady, didn't have a role in the Snow Bowl beyond looking cold and helping Brady warm up . . .

. . . it is always great to see the second-best quarterback in franchise history at Gillette. And the names Bruschi, Brown, and Law do take you back to that particular game, and the mind wanders back to all the what-ifs and how'd-he-do-that's that broke the Patriots' way.

What if Charlie Garner could pick up a late first down, allowing the Raiders to run out the clock? What if J.R. Redmond didn't play the game of his life, unaware he'd play the game of his life again a week later before slipping away into obscurity? What if Jermaine Wiggins, he of the 10 receptions, wasn't as natural comfortable in the conditions as a New England kid who had grown up playing in them, which is of course exactly what he was.

What if Walt Coleman had incorrectly interpreted a contrived rule?

How would it have been different? Would the NFL version of the butterfly effect have taken place, with subtle changes in that game altering the course of history? Would the dynasty, the prolonged excellence that still exists today, have followed a similar course. Or in defeat, would something have been lost, some invisible intangible?

It's not a question you often ponder 10 years, six conference title games, four Super Bowl appearances (with a fifth pending) and three Lombardi Trophies (go ahead and say it -- with a fourth pending) later. It happened, all of it, and that's that. We don't know, we'll never know, and we don't care to know. Let Charles Woodson and Rich Gannon torment themselves with those questions for eternity.

It seems to me the most fulfilling victories are the close ones with high stakes. Perhaps you appreciate what happened Sunday a little more because of how close it came to becoming another notation on the brief but disappointing list of painful losses the past 10 years. Perhaps the trip to the Super Bowl means more because it's been seven seasons without a title. Had Lee Evans held on to the ball a split-second longer, had Billy Cundiff not shanked his own reputation, and perhaps we'd be muttering the names of certain Ravens in the same tones reserved for David Tyree and the 2006 version of Peyton Manning.

Instead, the Patriots added another game of glory to their lore, and many of the names and faces who were instrumental in this run were there as honored guests, proud witnesses. Watching Bruschi high-five Bledsoe -- both looking a little bit older and entirely satisfied -- in the immediate aftermath of the victory was a cool reminder of just how many years on the calendar the Patriots' excellence has spanned.

It was 10 years ago -- give or take a few days post-anniversary, of course -- that Foxboro Stadium was sent off with the most beautiful atmosphere in its history, and a game to match. The Snow Bowl was the beginning, and astoundingly, it continues less that two weeks from now at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Anyone know how to get some snow into that place?

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

Three quick thoughts while watching Ed Reed run like he's seriously favoring his ankle in warmups. Hmmm. Probably just gamesmanship, right? . . .

1. Patriots have to negate Ngata: It's a tired angle at this point, but it's also the truth. If the Ravens are going to slow the Patriots' prolific passing game, they need to get pressure on Tom Brady and make him uncomfortable. The Patriots quarterback struggles (by his standards) when he faces heavy pressure in the middle and the offense's Swiss-watch timing is thrown off. Ngata, a mountain of a tackle at 6 feet 4 inches and 350 pounds, has been All-Pro the past four seasons. The Patriots' interior line cannot allow him to be disruptive today.

2. Joe Flacco isn't that bad. Sure, the Ravens might be wise to try to convince Patriots honorary captain Drew Bledsoe to put on Flacco's jersey and maybe take a few shots downfield. But Flacco, who threw for 3,610 yards this season (12th in the NFL), and was the 18th-rated passer in the league, is mediocre. And that's better than a lot of the passers -- Tyler Palco, Vince Young, Dan Orlovsky, Tim Tebow -- the Patriots have faced during their nine-game winning streak. The Patriots defense has improved, but the level of improvement has been tough to gauge because of the opponent. Look for Flacco to take a shot or two deep with Torrey Smith, and then we'll have some answers.

3. The Ravens won't be able to contain Rob Gronkowski: Because we're sticking with this one until it proves false, and we don't expect that to be anytime soon, that's why. Put Gronk down for 8/115/2, with at least one one-on-one embarrassment of Ray Lewis.

Prediction: During the week of the 10-year anniversary of the Snow Bowl, maybe it's appropriate that Stephen Gostkowski wins today's game with his foot. But I don't think it will quite come to that. Instead of a Vinatieri-style winner through the snow, he ices it with a late field goal, and the Patriots head to their fifth Super Bowl of the Brady/Belichick Era with a 27-17 win.

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

A quick link to my media column this morning, which leads with a conversation with Mike Flynn of 98.5 The Sports Hub and NESN about Sunday's Patriots-Ravens showdown.

Flynn is an excellent resource this week in particular because of his connection to Baltimore -- he spent more than a decade playing center for the Ravens. But he's a rising star on the local sports media scene not just for his knowledge, but because he's self-deprecating and doesn't hammer listeners over the head with the "I-played-the-game-caller" stuff that plagues many ex-athletes who end up in the media. Probably has something to do with his UMaine education.

Also, if you missed it, there's an update at the bottom of the column on NESN's search for Heidi Watney's replacement. It's down to six or seven candidates, with the decision ultimately up to Tom Werner, who has a tape that includes everyone who auditioned. So you'll have that answer you've been waiting for soon. Now, if the Sox will just find a right fielder and fifth starter, baseball season will finally feel near.

I'll be at Gillette Sunday, handling the tweeting duties from our @GlobePatriots account among other things. Should have a post or two right here leading up to the game, so be sure to check back in.

Finally, I've posted a few deleted scenes from today's column below. They probably should remain deleted, but you know me. Wasted words are my specialty.

* * *

With the team he formerly and brilliantly quarterbacked, the 49ers, hosting the Giants in the NFC Championship Game, ESPN analyst Steve Young was asked earlier this week to reminisce about the franchises' classic showdowns in the late '80s and early '90s.

Demonstrating that the agony of defeat sometimes lingers as long as the thrill of victory even for the most decorated athletes, it was actually a game the 49ers lost -- New York's 15-13 victory in the 1990 NFL title game in which Young replaced injured starter Joe Montana -- that seemed to stick with him the most.

"The Giants always played us tough," Young said. "Bill Belichick-coached defenses [he was the Giants defensive coordinator] always felt like they knew what was coming, you know, so it was tough to play them. And they were great that day. That was a really tough one."

Despite the Hall of Famer's deep personal history with the Niners, Young said he's actually finds the other conference championship game more compelling.

"I think the game to watch is Ravens and the Patriots," Young said, "because the Ravens have the big boys on defense and [the Patriots have] this phenomenally unique, different offense, led by one of the great players ever. It's unbelievable what Tom Brady does now. He's built a repertoire that you just don't want to miss. I'm really looking forward to the results of that game. Phenomenal offense against a great defense. We'll see in this era who can pull off championship football."

* * *

It wasn't just Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos who got thumped by the Patriots Saturday. Not surprisingly, they did the same in the Nielsen ratings to the Bruins and Celtics, who had the misfortune of playing in the same approximate window. The Patriots' 45-10 victory earned a 44.4 rating and a 60 share in the Boston designated market area for their 8 p.m. game on Channel 4. The Bruins, who have averaged a strong 6.1 household rating on NESN this season, got a 1.8 for their 4-2 loss at Carolina, which began at 7 p.m. The Celtics, who also started at 7 p.m., were even more of an afterthought, with their 97-83 loss at Indiana drawing a 0.7 rating on Comcast SportsNet New England. The bad news for both the Celtics and Bruins? They both play in the same window as the Patriots again Sunday.

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

It didn't take long for Tom Brady and the Patriots to take the drama out of their divisional playoff game versus the Denver Broncos last night, building a 28-point halftime lead en route to a 45-10 victory.

And because the outcome was all but decided before the prime-time matchup was halfway to completion, the ratings for the broadcast on CBS ended up being merely very good rather than the massive numbers that some anticipated because of the appealing matchup of Broncos phenomenon Tim Tebow against Brady and the three-time champion Patriots.

According to CBS this afternoon, it's broadcast scored an average overnight household rating/share of 20.6/34, making it the highest-rated prime time playoff game in 11 years. The rating/share peaked at a 24.1/39 from the 9-9:30 p.m. window, which is right about the time the Patriots put it out of reach.

The key phrase here is "prime time.'' The 4:30 p.m. window on Sunday is the most appealing ratings-wise, and chances are that today's Giants-Packers game on Fox will put up bigger numbers than the Patriots-Broncos did on Saturday night, particularly if the game is competitive. The most-watched divisional game in NFL history is the Jets' 28-21 victory over the Patriots on January 16, 2011. That game, which kicked off at 4:30 p.m. on a Sunday, earned a 26.2 overnight rating, a 44 share, and had 43.5 million viewers on CBS.

The Patriots-Broncos game wasn't even the highest-rated game Saturday. The 49ers-Saints instant classic, which aired at 4:30 p.m. on Fox, grabbed a 21.7 rating.

I'll update here with the ratings from the Boston market when they become available.

Ratings are the percentage of all homes with televisions tuned into a program, while share is the percentage of homes that have televisions in use at the time. Overnight ratings are a measure of the 56 metered markets in the country.

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

Don't know about you guys, but the closer we get to game time, the more nervous I become. I'll chalk that up to the anticipation of a playoff game rather than any fear of The Tebow.

Four quick pregame thoughts/predictions just for the fun of it. I'll be fine if just the final one proves correct:

1. Rob Gronkowski will have a big game: Yeah, daring call there, right? When doesn't he have a big game. Well, actually, in the previous meeting with Denver on December 18, he had just four catches for 53 yards. With Denver's pair of superb pass rushers, Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller, both banged up, Gronk won't be required to stay in and block on passing downs nearly as much. Put him down for 7-95-2. Conservatively.

2. Devin McCourty will pick off Tim Tebow: McCourty has had well-documented struggles in pass coverage when his back is to the ball this season. But if he again sees time at safety, where he can play facing Tebow, he'll have a couple of chances to be a ballhawk on some erratic throws.

3. Stevan Ridley will be the game's leading rusher: The quick and powerful rookie running back had a career high in carries (15) and yards (81) in the regular-season finale against Buffalo. He'll surpass both today. The suspicion here is that Belichick (and Bill O'Brien ... and Josh McDaniels for at least this week) has been waiting for the right time to unleash the closest thing they have to a game-breaking running back. Today is the day.

4. Final score: Patriots 38, Broncos 13. Until next year, Tebow.

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

While offering up a quick link to today's media column on the potential for massive Patriots-Broncos ratings for CBS Saturday night, I might as well become the last person in America who owns both a keyboard and an opinion to chime in on the phenomenon driving those ratings.

I was wrong about Tim Tebow.

I thought last Sunday's wild-card matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers would go down as his only career postseason start as an NFL quarterback. But Tebow, Demaryius Thomas and the Broncos played an inspired game against the limping Steelers, and from what I understand he'll be getting that second career playoff start against the Patriots this Saturday. Someone really ought to cover this. Sounds intriguing.

But while I was wr-wr-wrong about his one-and-done, I remain convinced I'm correct about this:

Tebow is no one's long-term answer at quarterback.

I suspect John Fox, who has done a remarkable job of catering to Tebow's strengths while wearing a perpetually bemused look following their improbable victories, would tell you as much if you could slip him some truth serum. You know John Elway, as gracious as he has been, is perplexed by how Tebow, a quarterback who completes less than 50 percent of his passes, has mechanics that give quarterback coaches migraines, and struggles to make his reads in what is said to be a rudimentary offense, is doing this. Bet you he'd trade a whole roster of Tebows for one Andrew Luck.

(Somewhere, Skip Bayless just fainted at the thought of a whole roster of Tebows.)

Hey, I'd be cool to be wrong about this too. No matter where you stand on his outward faith, Tebow is an extremely likable player and personality. It's fun to watch someone from a different mold, with an original style, play quarterback, even if he gives quarterback coaches migraines with his mechanics. The NFL can use more genuine uniqueness, and he is a tremendous runner. There's a place for him in the league, and I'll always wonder how Bill Belichick would have used him had he ended up with the Patriots in the 2010 draft.

But that place is not at quarterback, not for the long-term and perhaps not beyond this week. Whether or not rumors of Brady Quinn preparing to get playing time against Pittsburgh were true, the fact was that Tebow had played so poorly in the previous couple of games it was actually a logical possibility that he could be replaced in passing downs by one of the great quarterback flops in recent years.

Doesn't that tell you all you need to know?

The great times and comebacks and 80-yard touchdown passes in overtime are amazing. But they are more the result of small sample-sizes, coincidences, and foolish, undisciplined opponents than his own talents or determination. And Tebow's lows are so low -- he was 6 for 22 against the Chiefs just two weeks ago -- that the Broncos with him at the helm will remain in a cycle of the occasional improbable comebacks sandwiched around crushing defeats. And those improbabilities will eventually give way to probability. A quarterback who can't throw cannot and will not win in the long-term in the NFL.

The Broncos have an intriguing player in Tebow. But they still need a quarterback.

Now, would my opinion change should Tebow and Thomas and Matt Prater and Von Miller pull of another NFL miracle Saturday night?

I could give you a confident "no" right now. But really, that's a question I'm not going to have to answer.

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

Ten free minutes for me, 10 free throwaway lines for you ...

1. I'm a long-time admirer of Rany Jazayerli's baseball writing. He was one of many terrific full- and part-time hires by Grantland, and his thoughtful Rany on the Royals blog actually makes me interested in, of all things, the Royals.

So it gave me pause yesterday morning when his assessment of Ben Cherington's job performance thus far was lukewarm at best. But upon further consideration, I'm going to have to kindly suggest he swung and missed. I don't think you can praise the Astros' acquisition of Jed Lowrie ("A switch-hitting shortstop with a career .252/.324/.408 line? Yeah, I'll take two.") without acknowledging his significant flaws. Lowrie's range is subpar (minus-17.4 UZR last season). His arm couldn't be trusted, in part because he seemed to be casual with his throws. He'll be 28 in April and has never played more than 88 games in a season because of recurrent injury issues. There's a not a lot of risk on the Astros' part in acquiring him, but there is a chance he never pans out there, either.

And while it's fair to be skeptical about the probability of Daniel Bard succeeding as a starter, citing his awful statistics the last time he was full-time starter (Single A, 2007) needs to come with the caveat that the Red Sox fiddled with his mechanics and his command returned when he was allowed to use the delivery that made him a first-round pick in the first place. It wasn't as simple as sending him to the bullpen and, presto, instant relief ace.

It's understandable to conclude Cherington should have done more so far this offseason -- a proven righthanded-hitting right fielder would be nice -- I like the way he's gradually filling in the roster around the core stars. I hated the Punto signing at first -- yes, hated is the right word -- but upon deeper consideration, he's a utility guy who knows he's a utility guy, and who has consistently excellent defensive metrics at three infield positions. If Bobby Valentine doesn't play him more than he should, he can be a valuable asset. Melancon seems like a worthy addition to a bullpen that is not yet complete, whether he's the closer or replaces Bard as the relief ace. Yeah, I'll take two of him.

It's apparent that Cherington is looking for useful -- and yes, inexpensive -- secondary pieces who fulfill a certain need, the belief being that the core of an excellent team is already in place. I wouldn't call his offseason "distressing." I'd call it a promising work in progress.

2. The seven-year contract extension Adrian Gonzalez signed with the Red Sox last April kicks in this coming season, and for those who wondered last year why the Red Sox gave up three fine prospects to acquire him from the Padres rather than waiting for him to hit free agency (other than the chance to get his bat in the lineup a year earlier), perhaps Albert Pujols's deal with the Angels helps provide some context.

Pujols is two years and four months older than Gonzalez, had a lower OPS last season (.906 to Gonzo's .956), will be under contract for three years longer, and will make $100 million more over the length of the deal.

If Prince Fielder ends up landing a deal in the $200 million range, the Sox's deal with Gonzalez has to be considered a relative bargain, even considering the talent they parted with to bring him here.

3. Not to belabor the point, but the Astros are going to discover what Terry Francona often hinted at but never said outright -- that Lowrie doesn't defend well enough to play shortstop on a regular basis. Brad Mills, who was Francona's bench coach before becoming the Astros manager for the 2010 season, probably has some idea what he is getting. But Lowrie has slipped defensively in the two years since he left.

But if he stays healthy -- yup, that's one Rauch-sized if -- he can be a productive super-utility player for Houston, a .280/15 HR/.775-OPS-type, especially if he realizes he's much better off hitting from the right side, The change of scenery was necessary, and the time is now, but he has the talent to do well, and I hope he does.

4. A victory over the Patriots would have brought the Tim Tebow hype to levels even beyond their current insufferable state. Even in defeat, I doubt the hype will die down -- the theme for this week on "ESPN: First Tebow Featuring Skip Bayless Based On The Novel By Sapphire" will be, "Can Tim Tebow bounce back?"

Yes, the saturation Tebow coverage got to be a little much leading up to the Patriots game, but the justification is in the numbers -- ratings, page views, and all of that stuff that nowadays influences content decisions. After watching him play from the first whistle to the last against the Patriots, I'm convinced the buzz will probably fade out early next season.

He's a fine football player, but does not throw well enough to play quarterback, and I think we'll eventually look back at Sunday and realize it was the end of his entertaining but unsustainable small-sample-size run of football miracles.

5. Mike Aviles can't really be in the picture as a righthanded-hitting option in right field, can he? Um ... I think he can, or at least will, and I'd love to see Jazayerli weigh in on that.

He's hit lefthanded pitching well (.299 average, .814 OPS) over the course of his four-year career, and while he looked shaky during his five games and 19 innings worth of cameos in the outfield last season, he's athletic enough to take to the position.

I'll keep saying it until you agree with me: If they weren't going to get involved on Carlos Beltran, Josh Willingham, or Michael Cuddyer (now an overpriced member of the Rockies), taking a shot at lefty-masher Andruw Jones would have been an appealing solution.

FULL ENTRY

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

Sunday's matchup between the Patriots and Broncos -- or Tom Brady vs. Tim Tebow if you work in promotions -- was so desirable to the networks that air NFL games that CBS and NBC battled over the right to air the game early last week. The reason was simple: Ratings were certain to be enormous.

NBC lost out on its bid to "flex" the game into prime-time, CBS retained it in the 4:15 p.m. window, and today the predictions of enormous Nielsen ratings were confirmed.

CBS received a 19.5 overnight rating for the Patriots' 41-23 victory, as first reported by the Sports Business Journal. The game was available in more markets than any other CBS has aired this season.

It is the network's highest regular-season overnight since the Patriots' 24-20 win over the Colts Nov. 4, 2007. Both teams entered that game undefeated.

I'll update with Boston numbers when they become available. According to the Denver Post, the game pulled a 40.6 rating and 74 share in the Denver market.

Update: In the Boston DMA, the Patriots earned a 42 overnight rating and a 68 share according to an industry source. Both numbers are expected to rise even higher once Nielsen announces the final household figures later in the week.

It could well end up the second-highest rated game locally in Patriots history. The top five in terms of household rating:

1. Patriots @ Giants, Dec. 29, 2007: 50.10
2. Dolphins @ Patriots, Dec. 7, 2003: 43.80
3. Packers at Patriots, Dec. 19, 2010: 42.62
4. Jets at Patriots, Dec. 6, 2010: 42.20
5. Colts at Patriots, Nov. 21, 2010: 42.04

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

The NFL announced a nine-year extension of its television rights deals with NBC, CBS, and Fox yesterday, news that came as little surprise given the massive ratings success of the current deal — game broadcasts accounted for 23 of the 25 most-watched shows on television this fall.

But there were some notable developments in the new agreement, which begins in 2014 once the current eight-year deal expires and runs through 2022. Among them:

• The NFL will have a limited option to move NFC games between Fox and CBS beginning in ’14 with the intent of bringing regional games to a wider audience. It will mark the first time that CBS, which has owned rights to AFC games since 1998, will also broadcast some NFC games in the same season. Fox will retain the NFC rights it has had since 1994 and will also carry some AFC games.

• Specific details of the new flex scheduling agreement — which includes those potential Fox/CBS game swaps — have not yet been released by the league. The current flex scheduling system, which allows for appealing late-season Sunday matchups to be moved to 4:15 p.m. on Fox and CBS as well as NBC’s prime-time ‘‘Sunday Night Football’’ slot, will remain in its current format until 2014.

• NBC will pick up a prime-time Thanksgiving game next season and in 2014 will get a divisional playoff game from CBS or Fox. In return, it will lose one of the two wild-card games it currently carries. ESPN, which extended its ‘‘Monday Night Football’’ rights deal with the NFL in September for eight years and $15.2 billion, is expected to receive the wild card game.
  
• The package of Thursday night games on NFL Network will expand next season, though the specific number has not been determined. Currently, it carries eight games in the season’s second half.

• NBC will add a Sunday morning pregame show on the NBC Sports Network, which will change its name from Versus in January. The NFL season will also continue to open with a Thursday night game on NBC.

• Each network will broadcast three Super Bowls over the length of the extension. NBC, which has the rights to the 2012 Super Bowl under the current deal, gets the 2015, ’18, and ’21 championships. CBS, which has the ’13 Super Bowl rights, gets the milestone Super Bowl L game in 2016 as well as ’19, and ’22, while Fox has the 2014, ’17 and ’20 games.

The terms of the extension were not announced by the league or the three networks. USA Today reported the extension brings a 60-percent increase in rights fees over the collective $1.93 billion CBS, Fox and NBC currently pay the league annually, with the three networks eventually totaling $3.1 billion per year. That does not include the $1.8 billion ESPN will pay annually.

‘‘These agreements underscore the NFL’s unique commitment to broadcast television that no other sport has,’’ said NFL commissioner Roger Goodell. ‘‘The agreements would not have been possible without our new 10-year labor agreement and the players deserve great credit. Long-term labor peace is allowing the NFL to continue to grow.’’

The deal also includes ‘‘TV everywhere’’ rights, allowing each network to simulcast games it is broadcasting on television on tablets and other digital platforms. This does not include mobile phones because Verizon has a separate agreement with the NFL.

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

The anticipated matchup between the Patriots and Broncos -- a surefire ratings monster because of quarterbacks Tom Brady and cultural phenomenon Tim Tebow -- won't be played until Dec. 18.

But it can already be chalked up as a win in one regard.

CBS, which spent yesterday battling NBC's intention of "flexing" the game into its "Sunday Night Football'' window, will retain the compelling matchup. It will air at 4:15 p.m. locally on Ch. 4.

Sources at NBC Sports have not yet responded to requests for comment. Communications director Adam Freifeld said via e-mail that the network would "defer to the league for comment."

Frustration on the network's part would be understandable. NBC pays $650 million per year to air 18 NFL games, an extraordinary expenditure compared to the $622.5 million CBS pays for 102 AFC games.

(Fox pays $712.5 million for the same number NFC games, while ESPN pays $1.1 billion for 18 Monday night games.)

Perhaps the major benefits for NBC is its contractual right with the NFL to "flex" games in Weeks 10-15 and 17 from other networks to their Sunday night package, ensure it has appealing prime-time matchups.

Instead, the network will feature the regularly-scheduled game between the 9-3 Ravens and 5-7 Chargers rather than Tebow vs. Brady.

CBS did have a reasonable case to keep the game, and not just because it owns AFC rights. The network was flexed out of a chance to get its piece the Tebowmania ratings pie when the Broncos-Vikings game was flexed to Fox in a flurry of moves that began with NBC replacing the Patriots-Colts game with Saints-Lions. And this week's Broncos game, against the Bears, is also on Fox.

But it is curious that the network's decision weeks ago to protect the Eagles-Jets game on Dec. 18 was not held against it in the end. CBS and Fox can protect one game per week from being flexed, but they are required to notify the NFL of their selections before the flexing period begins in Week 10. (Clarification: This season, the league required the networks to determine its protected games by Week 5. Explains a little better why CBS didn't go Broncos-Patriots in the first place. It didn't see Tebowmania coming, either.)

Decisions on flex games are typically made on the Monday 13 days before the scheduled game, with an official deadline of midnight Tuesday (or 12 days before).

But because both networks adamantly coveted the Broncos-Patriots game -- and because both had a legitimate case that it deserved to air it -- the NFL made the unprecedented decision of waiting until 11 days before the game to make a formal decision. The news came at approximately 2 p.m. this afternoon.

The decision benefits the Patriots to some degree since a 4:15 p.m. start (2:15 in Denver) allows them to depart at a more reasonable hour after the game than an 8:20 p.m. game would. With a short week -- the Patriots host the Dolphins on Dec. 24, a Saturday -- the less daunting travel schedule mattered.

One other significant angle here: Patriots owner Robert Kraft, who was in New York yesterday for the league's committee meetings, is the chairman of the broadcast committee.

While The Kraft Group, of which he is the founder, chairman, and CEO, has a business partnership with CBS -- there is a CBS Scene restaurant at Patriots Place -- a team source said he was sympathetic to both CBS and NBC's perspective.

The Denver Post reported yesterday that he was making the case for the game on CBS's behalf. While his precise role in the final decision is uncertain, it's doubtful that the game would remain on CBS without his blessing.

The Globe has requested comment from Kraft on the matter, so we'll have further updates here and on Extra Points should he be made available.

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

Tebowmania, that increasingly frenzied phenomenon regarding polarizing, unorthodox, and usually victorious Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow, has hit a new peak, with an assist from Tom Brady and the Patriots.

CBS and NBC, the two networks with the rights and intention to broadcast the much-anticipated December 18 matchup between the Broncos and the Patriots, spent Tuesday engaged in a tug-of-war over which will ultimately show the game.

Despite a midnight deadline to determine whether it would be ‘‘flexed’’ from a 4:15 p.m start on CBS’s Sunday schedule to NBC’s prime-time ‘‘Sunday Night Football’’ time slot, the matter was not settled.

The NFL announced at approximately 8:30 p.m. that it will determine Wednesday morning which network will carry the game.

NBC wants to utilize its contractual right with the NFL to move the game to its ‘‘Sunday Night Football’’ broadcast, replacing the previously scheduled matchup between the 9-3 Ravens and 5-7 Chargers.

Such a late-season maneuver is not out of the ordinary. The NFL utilizes flexible scheduling in Weeks 10-15 and 17 to ensure appealing prime-time matchups late in the season.

Losing compelling games can be a source of frustration to CBS, which has AFC broadcast rights, and Fox, which carried NFC games, but resistance is rare.

But this game is justifiably coveted. With the charismatic Tebow, who has led the Broncos to five straight victories, squaring off against Brady, the marquee player on a marquee franchise, the game is certain to be a ratings blockbuster for whichever network carries it.

It became increasingly evident Tuesday as the hours passed without an announcement that CBS was attempting to keep the game and a stalemate had occurred. Flex scheduling rules state that teams much be notified whether they will be moved into the Sunday night time slot no later than 12 days before the game, meaning midnight Tuesday was the deadline. Typically, the announcement comes the previous Monday.

Since flex scheduling was implemented in 2006, there are no other documented instances of a decision being held until a Wednesday.

The final decision on who gets the game will be made by the NFL, and it will be fascinating to learn which network it chooses. Conventional wisdom suggests the league would want Patriots-Broncos, a matchup that has been anticipated for weeks, in prime time, though the late-afternoon time slot on either CBS or Fox is usually its biggest ratings draw.

CBS and Fox can protect one game per week from being flexed under league rules, but the catch is that CBS protected Sunday’s Eagles-Jets matchup weeks ago, when that game had considerably more luster.

CBS, however, also could be excused for believing it is owed a break, having been flexed out of a Broncos/Tebow game just last Sunday. Then, the Patriots’ matchup with the winless Colts, originally scheduled for ‘‘Sunday Night Football,’’ was moved to an afternoon game on CBS. The Saints-Lions game, scheduled for 1 p.m. on Fox, was moved to NBC.

Because Fox had just two games to choose from in the early window, it was permitted by the league to take the Broncos-Vikings game from CBS.

Adding more intrigue to the situation was a report by the Denver Post Tuesday afternoon that Patriots owner Robert Kraft, who was in New York for the NFL committee meetings, was making a case on CBS’s behalf and that the matter may have been resolved Monday had he not become involved.

The Kraft Group, of which he is the founder, chairman and CEO, is partnered with CBS in a restaurant venture at Patriot Place in Foxborough.

A source with the Patriots said Kraft, the chairman of the league’s broadcast committee, is sympathetic to both sides but may have some reservations about how a time change would affect the team’s travel plans back from Denver.

A spokesman for the Broncos said the team had no preference for when the game is played.

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

When an NFL team enters a new season with reasonable postseason aspirations, conclusions on whether it was a success or failure can't be drawn until the final down of the final game has been played.

While there are occasional exceptions to this -- such as the "Dream Team" Eagles, who have become Andy Reid's worst nightmare since that time he woke up convinced that his favorite steak joint had converted to an all-hummus menu -- context is usually only available after the final shred of confetti has rained down on the champs.

Yeah, I know: You're muttering "No kidding, Sherlock." But I bring it up not only in a transparent way to mock the Eagles, the latest professional team to embarrass itself by behaving as if a championship is won during free agency (team slogan: They Are Who We Thought They Weren't), but also because it applies in particular to the 2011 Patriots.

We knew before Tom Brady threw for the first of his 511 yards in the opener at Miami that the context and perspective will become available regarding this football team only after two questions are answered:

• Will they earn their first playoff victory since the 2007 AFC Championship Game against the Chargers?
• Will their postseason journey culminate on February 5 in Indianapolis?

The standard set by Brady and Bill Belichick, the two chief architects of the franchise's run of excellence that has now surpassed a decade in length, is both rewarding and relentless. Win 13 games in the regular season but lose in the first round of the playoffs for the second straight year, and it's recorded as an epic failure. There's an element among us that revels in that. They haven't won a Super Bowl in seven years! Sell on Belichick! He inherited Pete Carroll's players, just like Theo stole Duquette's glory!

The drought -- between Super Bowls, between playoff victories -- is frustrating for sure, even to the most levelheaded fans. Tom Brady is 34 years old. He might want to play until he's 40, but the game and 290-pound speed rushers tend to make decisions on career length for quarterbacks.

There is desperation to some degree to get that fourth championship before there are cracks showing in No. 12's foundation. But the blessing of high expectations is countered by a nagging curse -- an inability to appreciate the best moments along the way because the focus is always on not punting away a perceived championship opportunity.

That some of the most prominent sports radio programs in the market habitually emphasize the negative even after an efficient, impressive victory over a team they touted in the buildup as the Patriots' biggest challenge the rest of the way only adds to that vibe.

Will this Patriots' season be considered a success by the conventionally grand standards around here? Ask me again in February. What we know for sure is that they're 8-3, in full command of the AFC East, and have a decent shot at running the table over the next five weeks given that their remaining opponents have a combined 18-37 record. It's mostly been fun so far, and there are more good times ahead in December.

We also know that Eagles scatter-arm Vince Young isn't the last erratic passer they will face; this week, they cross paths with the Colts' Curtis Painter, who is literally caught in a can't-win situation and whose surname probably suggests a more reasonable career choice for his skills than NFL quarterback. It's telling that Tim Tebow, who could someday be a devastating H-Back but right now is an extraordinarily fortunate quarterback who often appears to be throwing with the wrong arm, might be the most dangerous QB ahead, save for perhaps Ryan Fitzpatrick. Can't wait to see utility player Julian Edelman shadow Tebow from sideline to sideline two weeks from now.

We also know that teams that don't need exotic schemes to get to Brady -- the Giants, Cowboys, the blitzing Steelers -- are the teams that can keep the Patriots below their average of 30.1 points per game. We know, as LeSean McCoy also does, that the defensive line can stop the run (12th in the NFL) and has played better and better the deeper the Patriots get into the schedule. We know Bill Belichick, animated and encouraging on the sidelines to his mix-and-match defensive backfield, likes something about this group that most of us are yet to recognize. We know that Gronk is unstoppable, possibly indestructible, and always remembers to spike the ball even after he's been hit so hard he looks like he might not remember his name.

We know that there's a lot to like about the 2011 Patriots. We also know, especially if you have your radio on, that there's a lot to wonder about. The postseason begins roughly six weeks from now, and the ultimate answers about this team will be revealed soon thereafter. in the meantime, try to enjoy getting there as much as you can. Or you'll leave me no choice but to revisit the Tommy Hodson Era in great and agonizing detail.

. . . or where me, Peter Abraham, and Daigo Fujiwara gab about GM-in-waiting Ben Cherington, the World Series, and pretty much everything other than what brand of beer Red Sox pitchers prefer. I give it two days until we find out that they actually had a keg in the dugout.

A massive and possibly coherent Red Sox column will be posted tomorrow morning. In the meantime, a couple of recent links I neglected to post here:

-- 20 offseason predictions for the Sox: Forgot to include the prediction that Varitek, who really should be moving along now, would deny everything.

-- Last Friday's media column on Terry Francona's two-game cup of coffee in the Fox broadcast booth. The strong hunch here is that he does TV for a year before getting another managerial gig. He was very good and enjoyed it much more than he thought he would

-- Two recent Patriots postgame sidebars -- one on Aaron Hernandez's return against the Jets, and this week's on the Cowboys' costly conservative offensive approach -- that I don't expect you to read but I'm posting anyway.

Caught up with Scott Hanson, host of the game-changing NFL RedZone channel, in Friday's media column. The question he gets asked the most -- one not at all related to football -- is accounted for in the column.

While we wait for the Patriots and Jets to get going, here are five other more conventional questions and answers with the genial and energetic Hanson:

1. Virtually all of what you do is dependent on what happens in the games; it's essentially a real-time highlights show. So how do you prepare for it during the week? I imagine it's a lot of studying rosters and injury reports to make sure you don't, for instance, mistake Ben Tate for Arian Foster or something along those lines.

Hanson: "Absolutely. It's a seven-hour show, and it's all ad-libbed except for the first two minutes setting up the game. So you have to stay dialed in to every story line, injury, depth-chart changes, coaching decisions, so I spend, oh, give or take, a couple hours each day combing the websites, hearing what's being said in various cities by the local reporters, I'm on Twitter all the time following beat writers, and all of that goes into telling me how the week is going and getting the information about a story line we might want to highlight on Sunday, or to learn about a player who might not have been on our radar previously. And depending upon the flow of the game, I might have to talk about this player for five seconds or I might have to talk about him for 60 seconds. You have to be prepared for just about anything. I really believe it's a lot like jazz music, preparing for this show. You can know your instrument, you can know your history, you can know all the notes to play, but until it's live, you don't know how it's going to sound.''

2. Given the frenzied nature of your role, it appears to be the most rewarding hosting job in television sports, and probably the most stressful, too. Yet the overwhelmingly positive reaction to RedZone pretty much since it launched in 2009 probably helps make it more of the former than the latter, correct?

Hanson: "My answer to that is yes, and yes. Lookit, the old cliche is, sitting in your living room is the best seat in the house. Well, if that's the case, I've got the best seat in America. I get to watch every single game and see everything of meaning that's happening, and not only that, I get to enjoy it with whatever the number of people who are watching every Sunday. It's thrill, whether the feedback is coming from fans on Twitter or someone I just bump into on the street, when people say how much they love NFL RedZone and how it's changed their viewing experience. The whole thing is just so pleasantly overwhelming, the response. There's almost nothing you can do, in sports, in entertainment, in television, that is going to be overwhelmingly positive. If you do something and 70 percent of the people like it and 30 percent don't, you're doing pretty well. This is, in everything I've heard in the three seasons we've been doing it, 95 percent positive, maybe even higher than that.''

3. The appeal to football fans in general is obvious, and I'm sure a decent number of your viewers might have a wager on a game or two. But it's an amazing resource for fantasy football players. Can you put a number on what percentage of people watch it for fantasy football purposes? It's the closest a fan will ever get to watching their team play in reality.

Hanson: "Well, we get some over-the-top flattery a lot of the time -- 'It's the greatest thing since sliced bread, it's the greatest thing since pizza, the greatest thing since penicillin' -- and that's always nice to hear. But I get, oh, probably as many questions about fantasy football -- 'Should I start Chris Johnson or Arian Foster?' -- and there are so many that I can't respond to all of them, but I would say, oh, it's well over 50 percent, certainly the majority of the people watching have some kind of fantasy football interest."

4. You played at Syracuse, having described yourself as "Rudy without the sack at the end.'' is the adrenaline rush you get from this similar to what it's like playing the game, and how tired are you after seven hours of standing in front of all those screens hopping from game to game?

Hanson: "Well, it really is exhilarating, and I think that adrenaline rush you mentioned tends to make the seven hours go by a lot quicker than you'd think. In the middle of that seven hours, I'm not at all tired usually, and never think that way. But by the end of the day, let me put it this way: As soon as we say goodnight and run the touchdown montage [featuring every TD of the day], well, my office is about a 50-foot walk from the studio. And it takes every bit of energy I can muster to walk by to the office and slump in my chair, flip on ‘Sunday Night Football,’ and just start watching some football as a fan and not a broadcaster. I exhale for the rest of the night.''

5. It's such an intense commitment for those seven hours, it takes someone with great enthusiasm to host "NFL RedZone.'' Obviously that is not something you struggle with, but do you foresee a day where it will begin to feel more like a job than a fun way to spend a Sunday?

Hanson: "I know exactly what you're saying. If I was talking to you off the record, I could probably name some names of famous sportscaster who at one time were very organic and genuinely enthusiastic, and now it seems like they . . . it's what they're known for, so they go out there and do it even if that enthusiasm isn't what it used to be. So let me put it this way: I don't ever want it to become an act with me. Because it's not. It's not. When I was a 10-year-old kid, I'd listen to my favorite sportscasters, radio sportscasters or television sportscasters, and those guys sounded like they were having the most fun in the world. My parents encouraged me to get into a career where I'd have a passion for what I did. I have that. And the wonderful thing about this is that it's new and different every week. The only thing you know about an NFL Sunday is that your jaw will drop at some point. You don't know when it will happen, you don't know how it will happen, you don't know who will make it happen. But you know it will happen, and experiencing that with audience, it rejuvenates me every single week, and it's hard to put into words how fulfilling that is."

By Chad Finn, Boston.com/Globe Staff

Sweet rings, sweet cover about Boston's winnahs, and sweet distraction from the submerging Red Sox. Or as Kevin Garnett put it in a classic commercial for ESPN Mag back in the day before he was part of the Boston sports scene, it's tastefully done.

While the suspicion here is that this week's all-Boston issue will include more references to "Beantown'' than most true Bostonians would ever actually say -- that would be one or greater -- a glimpse at the table of contents suggests it should be appealing overall even to the most parochial Boston fan.

Hey, anything with an article about Boston sports titled "Decade of Dominance" is off to a good start as far as I'm concerned. Also, Bill Simmons -- Grantland Sports Guy these days -- returns to the magazine to write a back-page piece on why the issue was a bad idea.

I know there's a punch line there, but I'm not finding it. So let's consider five other articles included in the issue, in order of appeal:

The Front Office Diaries -- A look inside the thinking of the Red Sox farm system featuring the scouting reports on some of the team’s best homegrown players, such as Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, and Jonathan Papelbon. Sounds like required reading for those howling without context or a clue that Theo Epstein should be fired.

How to Rob Fenway Park -- Chuck Hogan’s novel “Prince of Thieves” was turned into “The Town,” a well-reviewed and wholly Boston movie directed by and starring Ben Affleck. (Jeremy Renner, a Modesto, California native, had the most accurate Boston accent in the movie, however.) Following the movie’s release, there was a string of copycat bank and armed car robberies utilizing techniques seen in the movie. But no one has tried to copy the film’s heist of Fenway Park -- yet. Other than perhaps John Lackey every fifth day.

Bruins in the Bean -- This photo essay will show why the Stanley Cup champion Bruins are the most Bostonian of all the pro athletes in the Hub, with vignettes of their daily lives and what they love about Boston. No wisecrack here. Could not agree more with the premise.

Debating Boston -- Artie Lange (a Yankees fan) and Denis Leary face off to argue that Boston’s sports teams are awful and amazing, respectively. Then they rip apart the other’s view. Kudos to ESPN for going with two legitimately funny personalities to rep the two fan bases rather than, say, Billy Crystal and Lenny Clarke.

Who Does Tom Brady Think He Is? -- An examination of why Tom Brady is hard to relate to and "insufferable." Presumably co-bylined by Terrell Suggs and Bridget Moynahan.

Regarding that last article, I'm going to do what Brady does so well: pass. But I am looking forward to checking the issue out. It should arrive in subscribers' mail boxes today or tomorrow and is available on the newsstand Friday.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com/Globe Staff

FOXBOROUGH -- So there you have the literal view from the press box here at Gillette Stadium, where the Patriots are roughly 45 minutes away from kickoff against Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers.

As for the figurative view from the press box, count me among those who are predicting a shootout between two of the league's finest quarterbacks. I do think the Patriots defense played better against Miami last week in context of specific situations than the final statistics suggest, but Rivers, who threw for a league-best 4,710 yards last season, is as talented as he is brash, and he'll get his points. Just not as many as Tom Brady and his offense. The show, and the outcome it produces, should be a heck of a lot more fun that watching the Red Sox flail against David Price the Rays bullpen.

One quick semi-related thought to today's festivities. While flipping between WEEI's always excellent "NFL Sunday'' and the Sports Hub's "Johnston and Flynn'' on the commute in this morning, I caught the engaging Flynn -- that, if you're not tuned in to the local sports media scene, would be Mike Flynn, the former UMaine and Ravens center, in that order of importance -- talking about Drew Bledsoe's induction into the Patriots Hall of Fame and how much he enjoyed watching those mid-'90s Patriots teams with No. 11 at the helm. Thought that was cool for two reasons:

1. Maybe I'm wrong, but rarely do you hear an ex-athlete talk with such appreciation for a team he rooted for before his playing career. Flynn seemed legitimately proud that he played in Baltimore with former Patriots Ben Coates and Sam Gash.

2. It jostled my memory a bit -- as did the Bledsoe nostalgia from the past week -- as to how fun those teams actually were. I won't rehash the immediate pre-Kraft, pre-Bledsoe, pre-Parcells history of the franchise except to say that it was grim and you couldn't blame James Orthwein for glancing toward St. Louis. But that 1994-'96 ride from optimistic underdog to legitimate contender was a blast.

And thinking back on the last year of that time frame, when the good times lasted all the way to the moment Desmond Howard blew past Hason Graham and burst through the seam in New Orleans, it dawned on me that the offense the Patriots put on the field during that 1996 season was as versatile as any the franchise has had in my recollection . . . yes, including 2007. Need I remind you that Laurence Maroney was the so-called feature back that season?

Consider the talent on that 1996 offense: Bledsoe threw 623 times, completing 373 for 4,086 yards and 27 touchdowns. Curtis Martin, the one would get away, ran for 1,152 yards and 14 touchdowns. Terry Glenn was a combination of grace and dazzle, while Shawn Jefferson ran the deep routes. Coates was Bledsoe's Mr. Dependable; you couldn't cover him over the middle with two men, let alone one. Gash opened the holes for Martin. Keith Byars, a football Swiss Army, and speedy Dave Meggett were superb, accomplished role players.

Those Patriots finished second in the NFL with 418 points, a little more than 26 per game. Maybe that doesn't match up to what the Patriots did last year -- they scored exactly a hundred more points than the '96 squad, averaging a league-best 32.4. And maybe it won't match what they do this year. But it sure was fun, even if it does feel like more than 15 years ago.

OK, back to the present, and a prediction: Patriots 38, Chargers 28.

I'll be tweeting at GlobeChadFinn all afternoon, and be sure to check out Extra Points for updates from the Globe and Boston.com staff during and after the game.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com/Globe Staff

Other than possibly Derrick Mason, it's hard to believe anyone who tuned in to the premiere of "Bill Belichick: A Football Life" on the NFL Network last night didn't come away entertained and feeling like they had a new depth of insight into the Patriots coach's personality.

(He's more than a guy who mumbles when he's standing behind a podium; he's also a guy who eats soup while he's on a conference call! Oh, I'm being facetious -- Belichick is extremely compelling, and comes across as funny, brilliant, sentimental, prepared and prescient. And I'll tell you, any player who watches this -- excluding Scoreboard Mason -- will probably want to play for the guy if he didn't already. Especially Ed Reed.)

Plenty of people did tune in, particularly by the NFL Network's standards. An average of 657,000 fans watched the first of the two-episode look at the Patriots coach last night, making it the most-watched documentary in the network's eight-year history.

Locally, it pulled in an average of 151,000 viewers, trailing only the Red Sox-Rays game on NESN as the most-watched program during the time period in Boston.

The second part of the series premieres next Thursday on NFLN at 10 p.m. I've heard from a couple of sources who would know who say that Part 2 is even better than the first.

Perhaps this is a spoiler -- pause -- but I've heard Belichick says something along the lines of "We need to get Welker off the field," just before he blew out his knee in the 2009 regular season finale at Houston. If true, that should induce chills in Patriots fans, if not a more visceral reaction.

By the way, Belichick is just the first subject in the network's very promising "A Football Life'' series. Upcoming episodes include a feature on former Eagles defensive linemen Reggie White and Jerome Brown, as well as looks at the life of Walter Payton and the improbable ascent of Kurt Warner. Count me in for all of them.

* * *

Today's media column, on the abundance of recent former Patriots thriving as analysts, can be found here.

And if you missed them, here's my review of Part 1 from our football preview section last week, as well as a blog post about some of the best scenes.

So, did you guys like "A Football Life" as much as I did?

By Chad Finn, Boston.com/Globe Staff

Let's leave the flashy intros to Hank Williams Jr., Faith Hill and whoever else. The Patriots' new season is just hours away from kickoff, so let's take a best guess at what's ahead before it finally begins . . .

1. Aaron Hernandez will lead the Patriots in receptions with at least 70. Hernandez is often compared to the Colts' Dallas Clark, who as Patriots fans are well aware has been a dangerous, versatile pass-catching threat over the course of his career. But Clark never had more than 37 catches in his first four seasons before breaking out with 58 in 2007. Hernandez had 45 catches last season while missing two games -- and he was more than three years younger than Clark was as a rookie. He's going to be a star, sports fans. And the ascent begins tonight.

2. Andre Carter will reach double-digits in sacks. Shaun Ellis will be the most consistent and valuable of the assorted veteran defensive linemen brought in during the offseason, but it is the relentless Carter who will do the most to make sure the Patriots surpass last season's total of 36 sacks.

3. BenJarvus Green-Ellis won't approach 1,000 yards again. With Danny Woodhead an integral part of the offense and the arrival of draft picks Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen, the Patriots will have a more varied running game than they did a season ago. While Vereen is still a mystery, based on what we saw of Ridley in the first two preseason games, it wouldn't surprise me if he usurped BJGE as the team's top rusher.

4. Deion Branch will finish with more receptions than Chad Ochocinco. It's probably worth repeating the usual caveat: If he stays healthy. But don't sweat Branch's catchless preseason; as he proved last year upon his return from Seattle, there's a decent change he communicates telepathically with Brady. Don't take this as a suggestion that Ochocinco is going to be a bust; it's simply that until he's comfortable in the offense, he's probably going to be a bit of an afterthought in the early going.

5. Rob Gronkowski will reach double figures in touchdown receptions for the second straight season. Ben Coates is the Patriots' all-time leader for receiving touchdowns by a tight end, with 50, 47 of which presumably came when he was double-covered and Drew Bledsoe stuck it in there anyway. Second on the list is All-World Russ Francis, with 28. If Gronkowski can match his rookie season total of 10 this year, he will tie Benjamin Watson -- yep, that Benjamin Watson -- for third on the list. Given the reports of Gronkowski's improved knowledge of the offense, it says here to put him down for a dozen.

6. Randy Moss will sign elsewhere within the season's first month. And the silly conjecture about him returning to the Patriots finally expires.

7. Patrick Chung will make the Pro Bowl. And unlike the last Pro Bowl berth by a Patriots safety, this one will be entirely justified. Chung had his highs (think the Dolphins remember his performance against them in Miami last year?) and lows (the botched fake punt against the Jets, thought it wasn't entirely his fault), but his work ethic and physical ability suggest someone who is going to be a cornerstone player sooner rather than later.

8. Josh Barrett will emerge as a dependable performer at safety. Well, it has to be somebody, and Barrett, a 230-pounder who was plucked away from Josh McDaniels and the Broncos last season when they put him on waivers to try to get him to IR, is the best bet among Sergio Brown and James Ihedigbo to give fans that ah-ha! moment as to what Belichick saw that made him comfortable in cutting both Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders.

9. Albert Haynesworth will reinvent himself as an extremely valuable role player. The Patriots aren't going to ask him to be the wrecking ball who was The Sporting News's choice for NFL defensive player of the year in 2008, and he seems intent on proving that his days of having the best seat in the house to watch Michael Vick scramble just outside of his radius are behind him. He'll play 20-25 snaps a game, grind a couple of quarterbacks' rib cages into saltines along the way, stop the run the way Ted Washington did in 2003, and be exactly what Belichick thought he could be.

10. Tom Brady will double last year's interception total. . . . all the way up to eight, which is still less than a third of Eli Manning's total last season. He could even triple it -- he has thrown exactly 12 picks in a season three times in his career -- and still be a frontrunner for the Most Valuable Player award. Brady may be 34 now, but the offense he's orchestrating is as versatile as any the Patriots have had during his career, and he has a long way to regress just to be called very good.

11. Jerod Mayo will be a serious candidate for NFL Defensive Player of the Year: He led the league in tackles last season . . . and now he's being let loose to make plays as a pass rusher? Let's put it this way: By season's end, he will get his due as one of the few genuine elite linebackers in the league.

12. The Patriots will win the AFC East, bounce the Chargers and Steelers in the playoffs en route to their first Super Bowl appearance since 2007. . . . where the champion Packers will await. How will that go? Hmmmm. How about we hang on to that prediction for February?

By Chad Finn, Boston.com/Globe Staff

First, a couple of housekeeping details: No chat today. Got a couple of things I need to get a head start on for next week. Aww, I'll miss you guys too.

Today's media column, which kicks off with some thoughts from a few national analysts on the Patriots, can be found here.

And if you missed it in our NFL preview section Thursday, my review of the first episode of NFL Films's "Bill Belichick: A Football Life'' is over here.

Speaking of which . . .

*** SPOILER ALERT ***

*** SPOILER ALERT ***

*** SPOILER ALERT ***

Was that obnoxious enough for you? Sorry. I've always wanted to pull off the rare triple spoiler alert. Feels good. It's also probably necessary based on what's to follow here. Quick explanation: I loved the first episode of "Bill Belichick: A Football Life.'' Loved it. It's NFL Films at its engrossing (if glorifying) best on a personality New Englanders care about and still probably don't know as well as they'd like. I can't say enough about it, and I mean that a couple of different ways. It's superb, and it was a joy to write about, yet there were so many revealing vignettes that I didn't get to touch on in the column.

So . . .

*** SPOILER ALERT ***

. . . I'll share a few here. If you want to be surprised when the first episode airs next Thursday at 9 p.m. on the NFL Network, well, this is probably the only time I'll actually suggest you stop reading. But if an extended written preview of just some of the most fascinating scenes you'll be seeing works for you, dig in.

* * *

Before the preseason opener against the Eagles, Belichick is informed [I believe by Berj Najarian, passing along the words of the trainers, but I'm not certain] that Wes Welker is a no-go.

It's obviously no big deal, a precautionary measure in a meaningless game. But when the opportunity comes to needle Welker -- and send a message that is neither subtle nor entirely serious -- he can't resist.

The coach sidles up to a smiling, healthy-looking Welker on the sideline:

Belichick: "E-R-W today?"

Welker: "Yeah, what's that mean?"

Belichick: "Eat, ride, and warm up."

A few moments later, a smirk creases Belichick's face as he speaks into his headset microphone:

Belichick: "Hey Ernie. [It's the mysterious Ernie Adams!] What’s that guy’s name who played before Gehrig? [Pause.] Wally. Yeah."

[Of course Ernie Adams knows Wally Pipp. You thought he'd say Don Mattingly?]

On the field, rookie seventh-round pick Julian Edelman fields a punt and jitters and jukes his way to the Philadelphia end zone. The voice over the highlight belongs to Gil Santos: "This is Wes Welker in progress. He looks just like him on the field."

And like that, Belichick has his opening bigger than the one Edelman had on his return. He approaches Welker, whose smiling but looks like he suspects his coach is up to something:

Belichick: "Ever heard of Wally Pipp?"

Welker: "Wally what?"

Belichick: "Wally Pipp?"

Welker: "Uh-uh."

Belichick: "Well, he played first base before Lou Gehrig."

Welker: "Oh, OK."

Belichick: "Well, he played first base before Lou Gehrig. Then Lou Gehrig started whatever it was, 23,000 straight games.

Welker: "Right. [Laughs.] The little man. The little man. No doubt. He can have [the punt return job], man."

Belichick, deadpan: "Way to compete."

* * *

Maybe you and I, the sometimes-perceptive Sunday afternoon citizens of the couch that we are, noticed what he was doing. Maybe we did not. Maybe Tom Brady didn't know himself, at least on any level above his subconscious.

But after two errant-for-Brady throws during Week 1 against the Bills, Bill Belichick noticed. He detected that his quarterback was not certain that the repairs to the devastated knee, an injury that cost him 15 7/8 games during the previous season, could be trusted to survive the violence that constitutes an NFL pass rush.

The voice precluding the lowlights -- presuming two slightly inaccurate throws to Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk qualify as lowlights -- belongs to ESPN analyst Ron Jaworski: "It's going to take time to mentally overcome the injury."

Belichick: "Tom. Settle down now, buddy. Step into the throw."

Brady, incredulous: "I hit him right in the hands."

Belichick: "The throw to Kevin out here?"

Brady: "I got drilled. When I threw it."

Belichick: "Did you get hit on that?"

Brady: "Yeah, he was blitzing. I had to flop it over [the defender]. He was standing right in his face."

Belichick: "The one to Maroney?"

Brady: "It was right in his hands."

[This is where it should be footnoted that hitting Maroney in the hands is equivalent to an errant pass.]

Belichick: "It was over his head."

Brady: "Oh, that one."

Belichick: "Just step into it, OK?"

Something occurred to me while watching this scene that I'd prefer to never have considered.

Belichick is going to recognize when Brady's skills begin to slip before the quarterback does. Hopefully no earlier than 2020. Make it 2025.

* * *

As mentioned in the newspaper column, the most candid stuff comes when Belichick makes his final visit to Giants Stadium in Week 2.

The anecdotes flow as he recalls those championship days with the Giants, and he becomes downright wistful at the scene of some of his best and most reassuring times. .

Belichick, who almost looked the part of a Bon Jovi fan then, was building his reputation as a defensive mastermind, Lawrence Taylor was reckless and unstoppable on the field and off, and the proud son of a coach's grandest football dreams began coming true.

Of course he's wistful. But not when it comes to his boss, whose accomplishments as a coach were enhanced by his uncanny gift for sharp verbal manipulation.

The voice in the classic film clip belongs to Bill Parcells. He gyrates and wobbles on the sideline, barking into his headset, and the apparently unacceptable response he's getting from his defensive coordinator soon escalates his mood from agitated to threatening:

"Don’t you start giving me that. Your ass will be out in a [unintelligible] minute."

Belichick knew better. Parcells was his superior in the hierarchy. But in terms of defensive coaching acumen, well . . .

‘‘You know, look," Belichick says, still standing in the old familiar hallway. "There was a good mutual respect there. And look, he was the boss. I’d tell him, Bill, this is what I think we should do, and sometimes he would be OK with it, like, 'yeah, that’s great.' And there were other times he’d be, well ...

‘I’d say, 'OK, you don’t want to do that, what’s the alternative?'

'Well, I’ll just tell you what you’re doing is screwed up. This is screwed up.'

'How do you want to change it?'

'I don’t know. But it’s screwed up, and you need to get it fixed.' "

Belichick shrugs, the body language version of It Is What It Is.

The half-smile on his face makes you wonder exactly when the the student realized his knowledge surpassed the mentor's.

* * *

It's obvious to Brady and Belichick before the snow-globe scene against the Titans that they're going to be able to throw the ball. "A quarterback's best friend," Brady says of the snow. Fifty-nine points and a couple of NFL records later, the adage is confirmed and then some.

In the winners' camaraderie of the postgame locker room, Randy Moss hoots across the room to Robert Kraft, "You ain't never seen 59 points!"

Even Belichick is impressed, though he quickly recognizes that he's lost a familiar talking-point:

‘‘Can't say anything more about [us having made] no big plays,'' he says. "That shut me the [expletive] up."

* * *

Belichick has always seemed to respect Derrick Mason. Spent many words of praise on the veteran receiver when he played for those tough Tennessee teams a decade ago. Once tried to sign him as a free agent. He instead chose Baltimore.

After a catch along the sideline, Mason chirps something at him during an October game against Baltimore. It seems fairly innocent by NFL trash talk standards, but it quickly becomes clear that Belichick has little interest in renewing acquaintances at that particular moment.

"Aw. [expletive] you Mason, just [expletive] you, will ya? Why don’t we talk after the game. Just shut the [expletive] up."

And then, as if his point needs punctuation, he whacks Mason with the eternal comeback of the winning team:

"Can you look at the scoreboard?"

Derrick Mason is a Jet this year.

C'mon, NFL Films. We need a 2011 sequel to this. One more episode isn't going to do it.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com/Globe Staff

I suppose Brandon Meriweather's abrupt dismissal could come as a surprise from the standpoint that you'd think Bill Belichick and Nick Caserio would find a way to get something for a former first-round pick who made the past two Pro Bowls. Even if he was the 73d alternate last year, chosen, I believe, only after Donnie Shell and Kenny Easley bowed out at the last minute.

What should not be a surprise whatsoever is the decision itself to part ways with the habitually reckless Meriweather, a player who should be called a safety only in an attempt at irony. There were attributes to like about him -- he was big and fast and fearless -- and from time to time he would remind you why the Patriots drafted him in the first round in 2007, why the esteemed Rodney Harrison spoke highly of his promise, why the hope that someday he'd have a Pro Bowl berth that was actually legitimate lasted right up until the moment he turned in his playbook.

The past couple of seasons, as it became clear that he didn't have much interest in curbing his freelancing ways or correcting his flaws, I thought you could gauge a Patriots fan's level of knowledge and insight by how they felt about Meriweather. If you mentioned his name and the response was an eye roll or a (possibly vulgar) expression of exasperation, you knew you were talking to a diehard. But if someone's assessment of Meriweather included the Pro Bowl berths somewhere in the first few words, chances are you had encountered a Patriots fan who spent far too many Sunday afternoons pushing a cart at the Pottery Barn.

Who Meriweather was and who he was supposed to be rarely intersected during his four seasons in New England, though he should be noted that he broke Tebucky Jones's unofficial franchise record of intersecting with his own teammates during his often faulty routes to the ball carrier. If he's not the only player in NFL history to be benched twice in a Pro Bowl season, he's on a short list. He was the ultimate, "Yeah, he has all the tools, but" player, the Laurence Maroney of the defense, a talented space-shot who rarely failed to exasperate. I'll always wonder why the Patriots, who prioritize players who love football, first saw in the likes of Maroney, Meriweather, and Chad Jackson beyond the obvious raw ability. Did they think pure talent, aided by their coaching, would overcome immaturity and other faults? Jackson is the particular mystery given that he never even showed the flashes that Maroney and Meriweather did.

No, Meriweather was not a play maker, as so many of the stories about his departure suggested; he had 12 interceptions in four seasons, forced five fumbles, and never had more than 83 tackles in a season. He could deliver a big hit -- the head-shot on the Ravens' Todd Heap last year is the one that will be remembered long after he's an ex-Bear, ex-Raider, ex-Blue Bomber, or wherever else his journey takes him -- but his often ill-advised attempts at the big play often came at the expense of what he was supposed to be doing.

Comcast SportsNet New England's "Sports Tonight" program mongers panic in certain situations and with certain truck-driving hosts, but the loop of Meriweather's blunders that ran over the chatter Monday night essentially rested the case that he was a significantly flawed and often detrimental player. My colleague Greg Bedard noted that Meriweather made a crucial but often overlooked mistake during the Giants' final drive in Super Bowl XLII, botching the coverage on 3d and 11 that led to a 12-yard gain for Steve Smith. Yeah, that was four years ago. Do you doubt he'd make the exact same mistake in the same circumstances now?

The comparison is obvious, but cutting Meriweather really parallels the decision to cut Lawyer Milloy before the 2003 season only in that they played the same position. The accomplished and beloved Milloy was let go because his production no longer justified his salary. Meriweather was let go because his detrimental lack of discipline was finally determined to be incurable.

The comparison fits better when considering the aftermath of the transaction. In 2003, the Patriots had Rodney Harrison -- a similar and superior player to Milloy -- at one safety. They might have been redundant had they played together, but Milloy's departure nonetheless left an initial void. Antwan Harris Aric Morris started the 31-0 loss to the Bills in the opener and got toasted. The next week, rookie cornerback Eugene Wilson took over the spot and soon took to it like he'd been playing it his whole life.

You have to trust that this is where history may repeat itself, whether it's rookie Ras-I Dowling reprising the Wilson '03 role, or huge Josh Barrett showing us why the Broncos were so ticked when the Patriots claimed him last year, or a major leap of progress from Sergio Brown, or savvy Darren Sharper arriving in Week 2.

You simply have to presume the coaching staff has recognized something in at least one of these guys that we are yet to notice. Not everything is as obvious to both the trained and untrained eye as Brandon Meriweather's flaws.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com/Globe Staff

If you're one of those football fans who loves the compelling peek behind the scenes NFL Films traditionally provides -- and who among us isn't? -- let's just say this should make up for the absence of HBO's "Hard Knocks'' this year.

Especially if you happen to follow the Patriots.

The NFL Network announced yesterday that it will air a two-part documentary series titled "Bill Belichick: A Football Life," which will premier Thursday, Sept. 15 at 9 p.m. The second part airs Sept. 22 at 10 p.m. Here is a link provided by the NFL Network to the preview.

In preparation for the documentary, the Patriots coach became the first person ever wired for a full season when NFL Films recorded him during the 2009 season, his 35th on the NFL sidelines and the Patriots' 50th anniversary season.

Vignettes include game-planning sessions with quarterback Tom Brady, who was returning from a knee injury that cost him virtually the entire 2008 season, Belichick's last trip to Giants Stadium, and the ultimately disappointing ending, a 33-14 playoff loss to the Ravens. It also includes off-the-field footage, including a visit with Belichick's mom and scenes from his offseason home in Nantucket. There may or may not be footage of him holding a teddy bear.

While Belichick might seem a surprising subject given his reticence with the media, his cooperation also makes sense on a couple of levels beyond his great stature in the game. For one, since footage is from the 2009 season, there are few secrets to be revealed at this point.

The Patriots coach also is well-known for his deep appreciation for and knowledge of NFL history. NFL Films is not only legendary for the stylish manner in which it documents the sport, but legendary in its own right -- founder Ed Sabol was an inductee to the Pro Football Hall of Fame this year, a long overdue honor. It's an appropriate marriage of subject and medium.

“Bill Belichick doesn’t only make history – he studies it; he understands his place in it; and he appreciates our desire to capture it,” said NFL Films president Steve Sabol, Ed's son. “Like Vince Lombardi’s Packers in 1967, Belichick and the Patriots gave us access to his football life and what we created is a portrait of the coach, the father, the taskmaster – and most importantly – the man.”

Belichick will be the first subject of "A Football Life,'' a new series by NFL Films that aims to offer "untold stories into the lives of some the NFL’s most recognizable icons." Other subjects include Walter Payton (greatly looking forward to Jeff Pearlman's upcoming book on Sweetness), late Philadelphia Eagles teammates and legends Reggie White and Jerome Brown, and Kurt Warner's rise to one of the NFL's all-time great quarterbacks.

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By Chad Finn, Boston.com/Globe Staff

Taking a bit of a different approach to the long-running yet sporadic First and 10 feature around here today. Rather than chime in on scattered thoughts from the most recent Patriots game -- Thursday's 34-10 preseason loss to the Lions that you'll have long since forgotten about once to meaningful games begin -- let's instead take a look at 10 individual players, some of whom are cornerstones, some of whom will be nervous as tomorrow's 4 p.m. roster-shearing to 80 looms, and some of whom are already gone . . .

James Sanders: Actually, might as well start with the news of the day rather than the news of Saturday, since the decision to release the seventh-year safety came as a relative surprise based on the perceived lack of depth at the position. Sanders, who started 50 of his 84 regular-season games as a Patriot, was an adequate player here, lauded for his intelligence, communication skills, and football acumen, a player who long ago won his coach's appreciation. Unfortunately, Sanders may have been brilliant at diagnosing a play when the opposing offense lined up, but he wasn't quick enough to get himself into position to make the play. It's always disappointing to see someone who got the most out of his ability -- physically and mentally -- depart. But there comes a point when the mental acuity can't overcome the physical shortcomings, and Sanders has probably crossed that threshold. His professionalism will be missed, but his performance should be replaced.

Tom Brady: If the Giants' pass rush Thursday night is as effective and ferocious as Detroit's Saturday, the Patriots quarterback should be in his usual position on the sideline -- that is, standing next to Chad Ochocinco and gesturing toward the field while the ex-Bengal stares saucer-eyed, as if he's suddenly realized his former team's playbook was really a pamphlet. Brady was a bit scatter-armed by his standards Saturday, but whatever rust he may to shake off is of little relevance compared to the risk of him getting injured in a preseason game against a defense desperate for a couple of pelts to start the season right.

Brandon Tate: I hope he sticks. I don't know how he does, unless Wes Welker's injury is more serious than it appears, but I hope there's a spot on the roster for him. The Patriots have a relatively deep crew at receiver, but he's the only one of the crew who can consistently get deep. He seems to have been surpassed by second-year receiver Taylor Price, and his value as a kick returner has been diminished by the rule change, but I think it's often overlooked that last year was essentially his rookie season. He missed the last eight games of his senior season at North Carolina with a knee injury, then was limited to two games during his first season with the Patriots before playing all 16 games a season ago, with 24 catches for 432 yards (18 yards per catch). He may not have Brady's trust as a route-runner yet, but he has promise; give him time to learn. Let's not discard him in the Bethel Johnson/Chad Jackson discard pile just yet.

Ras-I Dowling: Pure conjecture here -- hey, now there's a surprise -- but is it possible that the rookie second-round pick has shown Belichick and Matt Patricia enough during his limited practice time that he might get a look at safety rather than cornerback to start the season? Given the Patriots' apparent lack of depth at safety before Sanders was let go, there has to be something happening at the position that remains a mystery today, whether that's the emergence of Josh Barrett or Sergio Brown or the impending signing of someone such as Darren Sharper. I refuse to believe it has anything to do with today's signing of the Obligatory Ventrone Brother.

Matt Light: A silly thought considering that first-round pick Nate Solder is a work-in-progress who appears to lack the strength and nuance required to protect Tom Brady's blind side at this point, but a silly thought I'm afraid I'll keep coming back to if Dan Connolly's injury is serious: Is there any chance Light could move to right guard? It's probably a lot to ask in his 11th NFL season, but I seem to remember a few people projecting him as a guard when the Patriots drafted him (some dismissively), and in his 2001 Pro Football Weekly Draft Guide, the late, great Joel Buchsbaum noted of the Purdue product: Might be better at guard or right tackle at the next level. There was no need for him to begin his career anywhere but left tackle, and he's been a damn good one. But he may be able to prolong that career by moving to guard at some point.

Brandon Meriweather: Considering he's blown coverages that led directly to big plays in each of the past two preseason games, I have my doubts that he's going to be any more dependable in his fifth professional season than he was in his first four. He's fast, he can hit, and yet neither is really a strength since he often overruns plays and goes for the kill at the expense of actually bringing down the ball carrier. If Belichick truly were an evil genius, he'd have long ago found a way to meld Sanders's smarts with Meriweather's raw skills and create the next Rodney Harrison.

Rob Gronkowski: Two things heard about Gronk during camp this year: He knows the playbook much better than he did a season ago. And: He's been absolutely unstoppable in practice. The Patriots' offense is so versatile that it's tough to project big numbers for anyone in the passing game, but I'll be betting on my fantasy football draft day that he's a top-five tight end this year. Possibly top-three.

Jonathan Wilhite: The fourth-year defensive back is among those let go by the Patriots today, and while I try not to say good riddance to someone who just lost their job, the truth is I can't remember Wilhite making any single positive play during his time here that stood out. Research revealed this -- an interception of Peyton Manning during the Patriots' 35-34 loss to the Colts in 2009. It's one of his three career picks, and undoubtedly the most notable considering the other two came against JaMarcus Russell and Ryan Fitzpatrick. (Come to think of it, the highlights of both Wilhite and Sanders's career here came with picks of Peyton Manning. Wouldn't have guessed that.)

BenJarvus Green-Ellis: He's easy to root for, a 2008 rookie free-agent afterthought who three years later became the Patriots' first 1,000-yard rusher since 2004. Other positives: He protects the ball, he gains every inch possible in traffic, and he's not named Laurence Maroney. Green-Ellis is reminiscent of another Patriots running back of relatively recent vintage, Antowain Smith, who earned two Super Bowl rings as a Patriot one tough yard at a time. But he also was just flawed enough that there was always the temptation to go for an upgrade at the position, and that's the same feeling I have about Ellis, whose lack of speed in the open field can be a source of frustration. If Stevan Ridley or -- and this is a longer shot given the preseason hamstring injury that set him back -- Shane Vereen can prove worthy of taking some carries from Green-Ellis on first and second down, the Patriots will be a better team for it.

Devin McCourty: It was a bit jarring to see him struggle against the Lions Saturday given that it was the scene of perhaps his best game of his superb rookie season last year. It's one thing to struggle covering Calvin Johnson -- even Mike Haynes in his prime might find the Lions star a difficult matchup -- but McCourty also got beat by Nate Burleson on a couple of occasions. If you're a frequent sports radio caller, feel free to worry that he's headed for a sophomore slump and possibly may even turn into the second coming of Chris Canty if that gets you a few more seconds of airtime. If you're a fan who maintains enough common sense and perspective to realize that drawing worrisome conclusions from this Week 3 thumping is akin to fretting last year about the preseason Week 3 loss to the Rams, you're probably not sweating McCourty's performance and realize that, yes, he will remember to turn his head around when the ball is in the air once the regular-season begins.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com/Globe Staff

Have to admit, I didn't think it actually rained on Tom Brady. See, he is just like the rest of us! Or maybe he's just walking on water?

Of course, this is nothing to joke about. It's a good thing he didn't catch a cold, for instance. The sniffles can linger -- cost Tony Eason (questionable, runny nose) three full seasons in the mid-'80s, if I recall correctly.

Brady's brash decision to go without an umbrella -- arrogance obviously learned by being in the proximity of Bill Belichick all these years -- could have ruined the Patriots season before it ever got started, you know.

By the way, how many Super Bowls has "The Genius" won without Brady? That's right, caller. None. The two as defensive coordinator of the Giants? How dare you suggest those belong to anyone other than the great Parcells. Did you know Belichick once dumped Bernie Kosar for Todd Philcox? The hubris of the hoodie lingers long after you wish it would go away. Like a cold. Or Bon Jovi.

Annnnnnd with that particularly long and feeble introduction, I believe I've fulfilled my apparent obligation as a member of the Boston sports media to find something about the 2011 Patriots to be snarky or snide about.

Sorry for putting you through that, but it's tough to fulfill a designated scold's obligations when the honest opinion is that the Patriots are right there with the Super Bowl champions Green Bay Packers and the remodeled Philadelphia Eagles as the best bets to be celebrating under a shower of confetti come February 5 in Indianapolis.

That's right. You can keep your rain clouds and your gloomy contrarianism. It's all sunshine around here. This team is stacked, and barring the unforeseen -- yes, always a possibility on those vicious Sunday and Mondays in the NFL -- it has a damn good chance of collecting that elusive fourth Lombardi Trophy.

Out of obligation and because it does feel a bit foolish to suggest a team will play in the season's final game before it has played its first game, I will repeat the mantra of August football: It's just preseason. It's just preseason. It's just preseason. And I will acknowledge that the combined 78-26 advantage they've had over the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Buccaneers through the first two preseason games probably isn't the best gauge of where the Patriots stand at the moment.

Jacksonville is coached by a guy who carries himself on the sideline like he would make a great crony for Fred Smerlas and Steve DeOssie. And Tampa Bay, with a young coach and quarterback, could be one of the teams that will suffer for the abbreviated training camps.

For the Patriots, the opposite is widely and properly regarded as being perhaps their greatest advantage entering this unusual season. With Belichick and Brady entering the 11th season of their legendary partnership, the Patriots have preparation, continuity and extraordinary competence on their side in a season when all are at a premium. It's a safe conclusion to draw through two preseason games -- they are ready.

If not for the need to get into the same playbook, let alone the same page, as new receiver Chad Ochocinco while also best figuring how to implement the most versatile collection of offensive players he's ever worked with, there might be some temptation to put Brady in bubble wrap until the Monday night opener at Miami. Brady's cruelly precise performance against the Bucs proved he's ready to try to duplicate his Most Valuable Player performance of a year ago. Maybe he will play until he's 40.

Belichick, to no one's surprise, has been ready all along -- not just for the season, but for the prelude, the scramble to fill out rosters in the wildly fun free-agent frenzy after the collective bargaining agreement was reached. More than any other team, the Patriots have capitalized on the supply of readily available veteran talent, not just by supplementing the roster with low-risk, potentially high-reward trades for Albert Haynesworth and Chad Ochocinco, but by signing the capable likes of defensive ends Andre Carter, Shaun Ellis and Mark Anderson and unsung safety/special-teams standout James Ihedigbo, often a nuisance as a Jet.

Unless he enhances his famous football book collection by writing one of his own someday, we'll probably never know the extent to which Belichick read the tea leaves this offseason and when he recognized that there would be an essentially unprecedented opportunity to enhance a talented roster with capable, inexpensive veterans. (The offseason between 2000-01, when 22 veteran free agents were signed, was different simply based on the weakness of the Patriots' roster. Antico Dalton anyone? Jeff Paulk?)

But I'm willing to bet it was weeks and even months before all labor matters were settled that Belichick recognized the opportunity ahead, particularly when it came to remodeling the Patriots' defense. He knew he could get the players he needed, in abundance if necessary, to make the adjustments to the defensive scheme, from a frequently 3-4-structured unit to one that has the beef inside and the edge rushers to be a dynamic 4-3.

Witnessing the aggression with which the Patriots' defense attacked the Buccaneers' offense wasn't just the most enjoyable aspect of the their victory last Thursday -- it was also the most encouraging. Rather than reacting to the offense, they made Freeman and the beleaguered Bucs react to them, whether it was Carter screaming around one end or Jerod Mayo unleashing a pass-rushing fury that often seemed the only thing missing from his All-Pro package of skills. Sure, there are soft spots that could become flaws -- at last check, Brandon Meriweather, the Scott Cooper of safeties, was still taking paths to the ball carrier that would make a butterfly dizzy.

But if this defense is nearly as good as it looked Thursday night, it has a chance -- a chance -- to be the best the Patriots have had since 2004. If you recall, the sunshine that year became that glorious shower of confetti at the end. Even in August, it's OK to be optimistic that a similar scene can take place this February. Especially since you've already begun to collect some compelling evidence.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com/Globe Staff

An extra point on the Patriots while trying to figure out whether Wilfork has Brady by a step there . . .

Maybe it's because we're so eager for football to return to get underway that we can't help but overanalyze the new season's first sites and scenes. Maybe some of us just don't know any better than to draw conclusions from the cautious Patriots' first exhibition game of an abbreviated training camp.

Or maybe Taylor Price and Stevan Ridley are the Terry Glenn and Curtis Martin of a new generation and we're just fortunate enough to catch those first glimpses of greatness.

[Pausing for a beat so you can admire my hyperbole. It's nice, isn't it?]

OK, I'm being facetious, and Glenn is a horrible example. Hopefully the only thing he has in common with Price other than some level of raw talent and a position on the football field is matriculation at an Ohio-based university.

It's just that whenever Ridley's three-touchdown performance against an apparent sandlot team from Jacksonville the other night has been mentioned, the famous Bill Parcells quote delivered to reporters about a certain rookie running back after a sterling debut in 1995 seemed to follow: "Don't put him in Canton just yet, fellas."

Which is rather funny given that the player he was talking about, Martin, should have been put in Canton by reporters last year, and almost certainly will this year, provided Peter King and his cronies see fit to do more back-slapping good work and enshrine the NFL's fourth all-time leading rusher, a true class act, and the rare New York superstar who was stylish, charismatic and yet somehow underrated.

Yes, I'm digressing before I even get to the fifth paragraph here, and no, I'm not suggesting Stevan Ridley is the second coming of Curtis Martin. (If you want to make a Robert Edwards comparison based on Thursday's tiny sample size, I'm not going to bicker with you. I saw the hints.) What I'm saying is that exhibition games -- the first one in particular -- are for getting those hints, those clues, not drawing drastic, unassailable conclusions. Taylor Price looked good from the perspective of my couch. But when Tom Brady is asked about him and his reply is that the key to young players' development is eliminating mistakes, you wonder if the perspective from within the Patriots' huddle is as enthusiastic. Yes, Canton can wait.

Of course, drawing conclusions is one thing. Looking for those trends and clues is another. And what I saw Thursday supported a couple of theories and suspicions I had entering the game.

One, that the Patriots have one hell of a junior varsity team; as one colleague noted, their backups might win the NFC West, if not the Southeastern Conference. Brian Hoyer will be a good starting quarterback in the NFL, and -- at the risk of contradiction about the importance of Thursday's exercise -- Ryan Mallett has the raw ability and apparent poise to be a great one. They appear to have very high-quality depth on the defensive line (loved bringing back dependable Gerard Warren), running back (could one of the rookie relegate admirable but open-field slowpoke BenJarvus Green-Ellis to a lesser role coming off his 1,000-yard season?), and cornerback (Leigh Bodden is a perfect complement to Devin McCourty, and Kyle Arrington just kept getting better last season).

It's apparent that Bill Belichick is going to have to cut some players who neither they nor us want to see go, though I would be completely staggered if the thin speculation that Albert Haynesworth or this accomplished but apparently puzzled pass-catcher . . .

. . . were among them. Even if it takes Mr. Ochocinco awhile to prove he has golden hands to go with the golden shoes. (Aside: Don't worry about his route-running despite what the semi-informed skeptics say. Darius Butler's tailspin began in Week 1 last season when Ochocinco diced him up with precise cut after precise cut. It was something to behold.)

Such depth is going to be essential this season. Around the league, numerous knees, Achilles' tendons, and hamstrings have already been the victim of the abbreviated camps and probably in many players' cases, a workout routine in the offseason that was practically dormant compared to what their coaches would put them through in OTAs and mini camp. It's why Belichick was cautious in playing his starters against Jacksonville, it's why he has taken the path of due diligence and worked out the likes of Darren Sharper, Reynaldo Hill and T.J. Houshmandzadeh in case they are needed down the road, and it's why I bet there will be some intriguing players put on the physically unable to perform list, starting with Ron Brace and Kevin Faulk. The Patriots have serious depth, and that is going to be a tremendous advantage this season.

There is another significant advantage they will have entering this season, one we have believed in with great reward for more than a decade now. It's an advantage that should be obvious even to the desperate contrarians, one that again was magnified Thursday night: Having Bill Belichick on the sideline running this whole operation rather than, say, an apparently disorganized preener such as Jack Del Rio, matters even more this season than it ever has, save for possibly 2001 when the 20-something veteran free agents and the scrawny former sixth-round pick at quarterback were molded into something unforgettable.

This season, continuity is crucial, and having a system in place -- with players well-versed in running it -- is imperative for success in the early weeks, and probably beyond. The Patriots have made some fascinating changes -- the arrival of Haynesworth and Ochocinco, the increased defensive flexibility. But the veteran core of Wes Welker and Vince Wilfork and Logan Mankins and many more remains in place, the sophomore class of Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez is poised build on a collectively spectacular debut . . . and once more for emphasis, having arguably the greatest quarterback/coaching tandem in NFL history in place is even more beneficial than ever.

You can go ahead and put them in Canton already, fellas. Just hold off on the carving their accomplishments into those bronze busts. This year, Belichick and Brady have a golden chance to enhance their legacies even more.

By Chad Finn, Boston.com/Globe Staff

If anyone in the history of professional football ran a go-route better than Randy Moss, the footage of this mystery receiver must be lost from daylight in a dusty NFL Films vault somewhere.

But beyond what football aficionados outside of the Sabol family have witnessed, however, there has never been another like Randy Gene Moss of Rand, West Virginia. When Moss was motivated and engaged -- more on those caveats and complications in a moment -- no cornerback, whether it was hapless Dallas blip Kevin Mathis, who had his Thanksgiving ruined during Moss's transcendent three-touchdown performance during the receiver's electrifying rookie season in '98, or the great Darrelle Revis, whose hamstring was a casualty of running stride for stride with Moss during Week 2 last season, could do much to prevent the inevitable. Even when they usually suspected what was coming.

Today, though, his pattern wasn't so predictable. Moss, 34, ran what seems to be one last go-route this afternoon, announcing his retirement from the NFL after 13 seasons, 954 receptions, 14,858 receiving yards, 154 total touchdowns, and one lasting but complex legacy.

Maybe we'll hear an official explanation in the coming hours or day. Maybe this is just a savvy veteran's way of dodging training camp. Maybe apparently self-designated Moss spokesman Cris Carter will share some real insight on what his former teammate is thinking -- revealing that the Patriots offered him a one-year deal is a start. Or maybe Moss will disappear to his favorite West Virginia fishing hole and keep us guessing at the reasons until his day comes in Canton.

Make no mistake, the day of the mustard-colored jacked and the bronze bust that may or may not capture his likeness will come, and should in his first year of eligibility. Should you be one of those finicky, fickle sports writers whose delicate sensibilities were affected along with Joe Buck's the day Moss fake-mooned the fans in Green Bay or pulled another immature stunt, maybe you'll tweet or write or belch sometime today that Moss isn't a Hall of Famer in your mind. But beware, ye of thousands of followers and little self-awareness. Such a suggestion would render your opinion a permanent confirmation of your lost perspective and credibility in subjective matters. Like so many Daunte Culpepper heaves, the Hall of Fame is incomplete without him.

Jerry Rice stands alone as the greatest player to catch an NFL pass, and no other receiver is within several strides. But Moss is in the argument as the second-best, and no one -- not even Rice -- played the position with such flair. Rice has 197 receiving touchdowns, 44 more than Moss, who is tied for second place with Terrell Owens. No knock on Rice, a gridiron surgeon who was justifiably named the greatest player of all time by the NFL Network. But I'd venture to guess Moss has a similar advantage in breathtaking highlights, whether he was hurdling a defender who suddenly found himself tackling a ghost or habitually catching the ball one handed, like a dad showing off to his 6-year-old while chucking around the Nerf. He accomplished many of his greatest highlights and feats, such as his 17-receiving-touchdown rookie season, still a record, while pointing flawed quarterbacks -- first Randall Cunningham, then Jeff George and Culpepper -- the way to the end zone.

Moss was infamous before he was football-famous, with off-the-field incidents (assault, marijuana charges) preventing him from attending Notre Dame, and then Florida State. He made his name at then-Division 1-AA Marshall . . .

. . . and mastered the art of hurdling defenders, but slipped all the way to 21st in the 1998 NFL Draft, two picks after the Patriots selected ill-fated running back Robert Edwards and a pick before selecting GPS-challenged defensive back Tebucky Jones. He was an instant star, a freakish 6-foot-4-inch deep threat who seemed to cover five yards a stride and appeared to jump so high that it you wondered if he could pluck the moon out of the sky on a whim. After seven productive, controversial seasons in Minnesota and two going through the motions with the perpetual hopeless cause in Oakland, Moss found redemption and rejuvenation with a 2007 trade to the Patriots.

The chemistry between Moss and Tom Brady was immediate. Moss caught nine passes for 151 yards in his Patriots debut, and such production was not the exception but the norm. He had eight multi-touchdown games, nine 100-yard games, and six scoring receptions of at least 40 yards. He finished the regular season with 98 catches for 1,493 yards and a record 23 touchdowns, while Brady set an NFL record with 50 TD passes as the Patriots finished the regular season 16-0. They were, for all intents and purposes, perfect.

The ending, of course, was not. Moss never played for a Super Bowl champion in New England, and the ending to his three-plus season run here came following Week 4 last season when he was dealt back to Minnesota following a zero-catch game against the Dolphins during which he reportedly accosted coach Bill O'Brien at halftime. His departure, fueled by a postgame soliloquy following a Week 1 win versus the Bengals in which he said he knew this was his last season with the Patriots, didn't make sense until after the fact, when he continued to praise the team he forced to trade him. Only then was it obvious that Moss so desperately wanted to stay that he gave them no choice but to get rid of him.

From the Boston perspective, he was football's Manny Ramirez. You wanted to like him unequivocally, and often did, but he didn't always make it easy. He was moody, mercurial, unpredictable and enigmatic. He made football look so easy that his doubters couldn't believe he worked at it, though there were countless testimonials that he did. His arms seemed to shrink a size when he went over the middle, and slights real or perceived could cause him to check out. You counted on him knowing there was a chance he would let you down and never offer an adequate explanation afterward. But you did so because the good times were so damn good, it was all worth it.

If Moss chose to retire today because the New York Jets signed Plaxico Burress instead, well, maybe that's appropriate in a symmetrical sort of way. Patriots fans need no in-depth reminder that Burress was the hero of the Giants' upset of the 18-0 Patriots in Super Bowl XLI. What's sometimes lost in the complicated timeline of Moss's time here is that it could have been him -- he gave the Patriots a 14-10 lead with 2 minutes and 42 seconds remaining -- and it was so close to being him again. In the Patriots' final seconds of desperation, he nearly got behind the Giants defense, but Brady's heave on fourth and 20 eluded his fingertips. He glided so effortlessly that you wondered if he had been going all-out, and c'mon, Randy, couldn't you just leap a little higher or stretch those plastic-man arms to full extension or maybe dive, just to leave us with no doubts?

Yet you also knew that the list of receivers who could put themselves in position to even have a chance at making such a play probably included only the man who couldn't quite do it. No one ran a go-route like Randy Moss, right up until today.

And who knows. With the havoc the abbreviated training camp could wreak on receivers' hamstrings, the temptation some injury-addled team will have to check in with Moss during the season, and even the off-chance that Burress shoots himself in the other leg, maybe Randy Moss will have a comeback route in him yet.

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

Those of us familiar with the weekly saga of the 2010 Patriots require no reminder that they lacked an outside pass rush last season. At best, it was more like a pass meander, the path of most resistance. Tully Banta-Cain, who made a play just often enough to remind you that he was indeed active, led their outside linebackers and ends with five sacks. Willie McGinest, whose legacy grows with each passing year his old job remains essentially unfilled, once finished a half-sack shy of that number in a single playoff game. Those were some times.

It is not coincidental that the Patriots failed to get off the field on third down a staggering 47 percent of the time last season. A defensive backfield of four Mike Hayneses with Ronnie Lott as the nickel back couldn't consistently stop a decent passing game without the assistance of a competent pass rush. The Darius Butlers and Jonathan Wilhites of the world had no chance.

Such a cold truth considered, it comes as little surprise that fans and media alike were puzzled, to put it mildly, that Bill Belichick selected two more running backs in the first three rounds (2) than he did outside pass rushers (that would be zero). Who knew that the only pass rusher to be associated with the Patriots during the draft would be Hall of Famer Andre Tippett, who announced their second-round pick? Now that you mention it, he is a rather young-looking 51. Think he could give them 10-12 plays a game next season, a couple of key third-downs here and there? If Seau could do it two years ago at age 62 . . .

I know, no one wants to be facetious about this. Many fans are frustrated that the teams apparent greatest need remains unfulfilled. That was evident by the insta-howling on Twitter beginning Thursday and carrying through the weekend after the Patriots progressively . . .

1) chose Colorado offensive lineman Nate Solder with the No. 17 pick . . .

2) traded out of the No. 28 spot with Alabama running back Mark Ingram on the board . . .

and . . .

3) took Virginia cornerback Ras-I Dowling with the first pick of the second round when pass rushers Brooks Reed (Arizona) and Jabaal Sheard (Pitt) were still available.

The gripes are understandable, at least upon casual consideration. The Patriots need a pass rusher. Belichick said in the days leading up to the draft that there were some talented players in this year's group. Then he goes out and drafts, in the first three rounds, an offensive lineman who used to be a tight end (Solder), a cornerback with injury problems (Dowling), two smallish running backs (Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley), and a quarterback with Drew Bledsoe's arm and, if you believe the most TMZish gossip, young Drew Barrymore's lifestyle (Ryan Mallett).

Brief digression: I love the symmetry of choosing Mallett with the pick they acquired from the Vikings for Randy Moss, especially since both of the teams the wide receiver played for after leaving New England spent first-round picks on quarterbacks. Given that Mallett has the biggest and possibly the most accurate arm in the draft, wowed Belichick (and Jon Gruden) with his chalkboard acumen, and is in the ideal situation to grow the hell up, ditch his personal baggage, would you bet against him being a superior quarterback to Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert, and even Cam Newton five seasons down the road? I wouldn't.

But that's all it is right now: informed bets at various levels of education and knowledge. Pardon me while I step into the usually filled role of scold around here, but it seems that some among us require a reminder than none of us knows a damn thing, including those who get paid to provide "draft grades" before any one of the 254 players selected plays a single down of professional football. Could Ryan Mallett be a steal? Yup. Could he wash out of the league in three years? Well, sure, stranger things have happened. I suspect that on draft day 2000, Giovanni Carmazzi never suspected his job description would be "fledgling goat farmer/yoga novice/punch line" barely a decade later, you know?

As for not drafting a pass rusher, maybe it's just this simple. Maybe there just wasn't one he liked, at least at the spot where the player was available. Belichick's dastardly attempts at cloning the likes of McGinest or Mike Vrabel or Roman Phifer in the bowels of Gillette Stadium have thus far been fruitless, and we know it's hard to find the big, fast, smart, versatile prototypes for his system. (Belichick must consider Vrabel, who was all of those things, one of the best free-agent heists in league history.) Given that he prefers veterans fill the complex, crucial role with veterans rather than young players, it's fair to presume his strategy all along was to find a dependable candidate or two in free agency (LBs here, DEs here) once matters of the lockout are settled.

The generally negative reaction to Belichick's approach to the draft among fans is disheartening. He trades around too much! Pick some players, will ya! Well, sure . . . except that he chose nine players this year, 12 last year -- six of whom were significant contributors -- and a dozen as well in 2009. Last year, he traded down from No. 22 to 24 and then 27, ending up with Devin McCourty in the first round and adding third-rounder Taylor Price and fourth-rounder Aaron Hernandez with the two picks acquired in moving down five total spots. I presume you're OK with the McCourty pick now that he proved something more than a nickelback/special-teams gunner? Or do you still covet pass-rushers Sergio Kindle or Jerry Hughes? (Since we're being honest here, I thought Hughes should have been the pick. But I know now to keep my yap shut when Belichick does something I don't expect.)

Sure, it would be nice if the Patriots had a monster playmaker like Clay Matthews, whether or not the former Southern Cal walk-on was an ideal fit for their system when they passed him up in 2009. But again, in trading out of that spot, they ended up with an array of picks that yielded Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman and Darius Butler. Maybe I'm in the minority, but I'm not ready to put that one in the loss column.

I'm not saying he's always right. I'm saying that loading up on picks in a business in which even the most expensive can't-miss prospects often miss seems like a pretty shrewd policy. He deserves the benefit of the doubt, particularly when he makes a deal like the one with the Saints with the No. 28 pick. Getting a first-rounder next year as well as the No. 56 pick in this year's draft (used on Vereen) is an offer that cannot be refused.

We all get caught up in the pre-draft hype. Imagining your favorite team reloading is irresistible fun. The draft is probably my favorite day on the sports calendar that doesn't actually involve the playing of a game. I'm one of those people who talks himself into believing that, say, Cameron Jordan is exactly the player the Patriots need . . . even though I've never seen him play, first heard of him, oh, maybe three months ago, and have no honest clue about how he would fit within Belichick schemes. He looked the part in the highlights, but who doesn't? They're highlights.

We all like to think we know what we don't know. It's why some of us were upset Belichick passed up a shot at Ingram. He was familiar, having won the Heisman Trophy two years ago, which makes it easy to dismiss the knee issues that plagued him last year, which is why he was available at 28. I suspect one main reason some Patriots fans coveted Reed is because with his long, blond hair he looks like Matthews if you squint. It's ridiculous. But it's what we do.

It's not that I want that to change. My wish is that the decibel level on the immediate overreaction when Belichick leaves you, me, and Mel Kiper scratching our heads can be turned down. Let me ask you this: What was the one draft in the past six or seven years that seemed immediately gratifying? I doubt it was 2005, when the Logan Mankins selection in the first round left Kiper scrunching his face and muttering that he had him as third-round value. I doubt it was 2008, when the consensus was the Jets got a better linebacker at No. 5 than the Patriots did at 10 with Jerrod Mayo. Wonder if Vernon Gholston will be in the league next season.

Speaking of abbreviated careers, the most immediately gratifying draft for me was the Lawrence Maroney-Chad Jackson-David Thomas trio in 2006. Now that was a flashy draft with name recognition. Finally, Tom Brady had some weapons! Turns out they were weapons of self-destruction. Five years later, Thomas is a contributor in New Orleans, but Jackson and Maroney will be lucky to take their talents to the UFL. Maybe they can play on an all-busts team with Gholston.

Belichick's worst draft was arguably the one most of us liked the best. That's pretty telling, I'd say, and hopefully reason enough to keep the howling to a minimum next year when he ruins everyone's mock draft yet again. Hopefully we will learn, one of these Aprils. Because this won't be the last time he drafts another class of promising players we've barely heard of over a player or three whose name recognition and position are enough to foolishly convince us he's just the elixir the Patriots need.

By Chad Finn, Globe Staff

Hey, what say we take a break from wondering whether Josh Beckett can find happiness, fulfillment, and six decent innings with budding scapegoat Jarrod Saltalamacchia behind the plate rather than his binky Tek and enjoy a brief football interlude instead?

Too bad. I'm doing it anyway.

The NFL draft begins Thursday, April 28, a little more than than three weeks away. Over on our Extra Points blog, beat writer Shalise Manza Young is profiling a prospect each weekday who may appeal to the Patriots. The draft is one of my favorite events on the sports calendar, though I've finally smartened up and realized that it's better to keep my post-draft opinion to myself. Turns out calling Bethel Johnson "can't-miss" will cause one to question his draftnik cred.

Back when I worked on the Globe sports desk, we always used one guide to get our information: Joel Buchsbaum's annual production in cahoots with Pro Football Weekly. It was incredibly detailed, and more important, accurate. Eccentric wouldn't begin to describe Buchsbaum, as detailed engagingly in this 2003 award-winning feature by Juliet Macur, but his knowledge of draft prospects won over the most accomplished of coaches, personnel experts, and skeptics.

"I tried to hire him as a scout with the [Cleveland] Browns every year," Bill Belichick told Macur. "But he always said he'd rather work for all 32 teams. There's a thousand people out there that write draft books, and they aren't worth the paper they're written on. But Joel? He was something special."

When Buchsbaum died in December 2002, Belichick and Scott Pioli drove from Foxborough to New Jersey for the funeral. They had never met the man.

Remembering this, I was curious what Buchsbaum had to say about a certain skinny Michigan quarterback back eligible for the 2000 draft. Turns out we still had that year's edition in our files, and Tom Brady was rated sixth among quarterbacks that year. Chad Pennington was first, followed by Chris Redman, Tee Martin, epic bust Giovanni Carmazzi, and Tim Rattay.

Here's Buchsbaum's pre-draft analysis of Brady, who you surely know was chosen 199th overall, the greatest draft-day steal in league history:

Positives: Good height to see the field. Very poised and composed. Smart and alert. Can read coverages. Good accuracy and touch. Produces in big spots and big games. Has some Brian Griese in him and is a gamer. Generally plays within himself. Team leader.

Negatives: Poor build. Very skinny and narrow. Ended the '99 season weighing 195 pounds and still looks like a rail at 211. Looks a little frail and lacks great physical stature and strength. Can get pushed down more easily than you'd like. Lacks mobility and ability to avoid the rush. Lacks a really strong arm. Can't drive the ball down the field and does not throw a really tight spiral. System-type player who can get exposed if he must ad-lib and do things on his own.

Summary: Is not what you're looking for in terms of physical stature, strength, arm strength, and mobility but he has the intangibles and production and showed great Griese-like improvement as a senior. Could make it in the right system but is not for everyone.

Well, the list of strengths certainly sounds like Brady, though I'd be really impressed with Buchsbaum's breakdown had he written: Has a chance to eventually marry a Victoria's Secret model. Possibly Gisele, who is also very skinny and narrow.

And I think we're all glad he exorcised those comparisons to Brian Griese (his former Michigan teammate and a decent NFL quarterback for 11 years) a long time ago. Beats being compared to Drew Henson, I suppose.

More than anything else, though, I think what stands out about this is how much it reinforces our awareness of the work he put in to become one of the NFL's all-time great quarterbacks. Look at that list of weaknesses again:

Lacks mobility and ability to avoid the rush. Well, yes, he's still dirt-train slow, but he has an uncanny knack for feeling the rush (his most recent game excluded, maddeningly) that we're beginning to wonder if it's not an instinct but something he was taught -- or taught himself -- to do.

Lacks a really strong arm. Can't drive the ball down the field and does not throw a really tight spiral. How would it read now? Try the opposite: Has a strong arm. Can drive the ball down field (50 TD passes in 2007, 23 to Randy Moss). Throws a tight spiral. To put it another way: Bet he's made Tom Martinez, his personal passing guru, one of the highest-paid gurus on the personal guru circuit.

One last thought: The draft is a blast, and evaluating how your team did in the immediate aftermath is even more fun. As silly as the business of judging players who haven't played a down of professional football may be, it's reassuring when Mayock or Kiper or McShay gives the Patriots an A on that day-after report card.

But we also know better around here. We know that Kiper's bewilderment that Belichick would choose, say, Logan Mankins in the first round when Kiper had a third-round grade on him is not necessarily a bad thing.

We know, this year anyway, not to whine and blow up Twitter if the first attribute mentioned about a young cornerback is his special teams proficiency.

We know that instant analysis is really just a slightly educated guess, that picking Laurence Maroney, Chad Jackson and David Thomas does not guarantee Brady has all the weapons he needs for the next half-dozen years, and that maybe, just maybe, Bethel Johnson won't make it.

We know we won't learn anything meaningful about these players about to become Patriots until Belichick confirms that they are doing something right by putting them on the field.

With an occasional assist from Mo Lewis.

A few parting thoughts on an afternoon of exit interviews, postmortems, and aggravating day-old what-ifs . . .

1. When Bill Belichick addressed -- briefly and curtly last night -- the botched fake punt at the end of the first half that will torment Patriots fans through the offseason, the closest he came to an explanation for what happened was saying "We just made a bad mistake on the play." What isn't clear is whether the bad mistake he referenced was Patrick Chung's decision to call the fake -- and we suspect Zoltan Mesko may have his tongue removed by Ernie Adams for revealing that bit of information, further confirmed by Chung today -- or that he made a physical error that led to the failure of a foolish, desperate play that never should have been run in the first place. The hunch is that Belichick's reference was to the former. A minute and 14 seconds left in the half with the ball on the Jets 38, down 4 points and facing a fourth and 4? Unless all 11 Jets defenders are 10 yards down field and looking up at the pretty sky, you punt, stop 'em, head into the locker room and regroup for the second half. There's no second option. Chung's going to be heck of a player -- in some ways, he already is -- but that was one cruel lesson for a young player to learn yesterday.

2. I understand why Belichick benched Wes Welker for the first drive -- there was apparently a directive not to engage the Jets in trash talk, Welker ignored his coach's orders (albeit in an absolutely hilarious way), and it ended up agitating them even more, though I doubt it had any effect on their performance. That said, I wish Belichick hadn't disciplined Welker. It just felt like an ominous way to begin the game, and Welker is not only essential, but he's one of the few players who should be allowed a bit of leeway.

3. I still haven't heard an adequate explanation for the offense's lack of urgency on that already infamous second-half drive during which they ate up eight minutes of the clock while trailing by 10 points . . . and gave the ball up on downs with little more than five minutes remaining. I know Tom Brady said the Jets had six defensive backs on the field at the time, but that doesn't explain the . . . I don't know, casualness? -- of their approach. The Donovan McNabb/Andy Reid jokes are well beyond cliched at this point, but the Eagles' final, lolly-gagging drive at the end of Super Bowl XXXIX is exactly what it felt like, except from the opposite, gruesome point of view. The crowd at Gillette was too often stunned into silence yesterday, but if you listened closely, you could almost hear cries of "What are they doing? Hurry up!" as one Danny Woodhead run followed another.

4. Another frustration with the passing game/offensive in general: In all of his blabber in the buildup to the game, Bart Scott basically revealed the Jets' defensive game-plan -- funnel the Patriots receivers toward a zone defense in the middle of the field while letting cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie take care of business on the outside. I don't know if the Patriots thought he was running his mouth for the sake of running his mouth, but in retrospect, giving credence to Scott's tip-off on the Jets' altered scheme might have helped them solve it a little bit sooner.

5. Rob Gronkowski, with four catches on six targets, should have been more of a factor -- he's the one receiver on the Patriots who is matchup hell for an opponent, the one who has proven that the advantage is always his on a jump ball or in tight coverage because of his enormous catching radius. The Patriots got too cute by utilizing Alge Crumpler time and again as a receiver, and unless his hip injury was worse than we were led to believe, I can't believe there wasn't some way to get Aaron Hernandez more involvement than one catch for four yards on a single target. So many questions, so few answers.

FULL ENTRY

Ten final pregame thoughts while thinking it's bad karma to bench Wes Welker for his remarks, no matter how long he sits . . .

1. Can't help but wonder whether Rex Ryan has reached the point of no return with his bluster, presuming the Jets lose today. He's put it all on his shoulders with his "it's about me and Belichick" nonsene, took the blame for the 45-3 disaster (during which he was among the chief mopers on the Jets' sideline), let his team say even more stupid things than usual about an opponent (and a quarterback) with a remarkable knack for converting slights into touchdowns, and essentially set his team up for its greatest victory since The Namath Guarantee or a disappointment so painful that a bunch of players who can't keep their mouths shut might start wondering if maybe it's their coach who should zip it.

2. Jets personnel have been raving about a inspirational speech by former defensive lineman Dennis Byrd, who suffered a career-ending neck injury that temporarily left him unable to walk. No word if the Patriots countered with a Dennis Byrd of their own. But we doubt it.

3. In two games against the Jets as a rookie, Rob Gronkowski has totaled two catches for 26 yards and no touchdowns. Bet he triples the first two numbers at the least today and finds the end zone at least once.

4. Watching Antonio Cromartie practice kick returns in warmups is enough to make you wonder if losing usual return man Brad Smith to injury might be a break for the Jets. It's only a slight exaggeration to say Cromartie covers five yards in about 2 1/2 effortless strides.

5. Provided his knee is OK, Deion Branch will torch Cromartie at least once. You know it's on Brady's to-do list, particularly if they build a big lead.

5. All Bart Scott did by vaguely threatening Wes Welker is assure that the refs will keep an eye on him today. Which is probably shrewd of him, given that with one sack and 81 tackles this season (tied for 89th in the NFL, a spot behind Devin McCourty), chances are no one was going to notice him otherwise.

6. Brief Seahawks-Bears interlude: Pete Carroll kicking a field goal down 28 points. Yep, that's the Pete Carroll I remember. Someone really needs to talk to the always-candid Lawyer Milloy about what it's like to be back with Khaki Pete again. I bet he's still mad about Willie Clay getting cut back in '98.

7. One key for the Jets today who hasn't been talked about too much during Hype Week: Braylon Edwards. He was beyond brutal in the 45-3 loss -- he caught two passes of the seven thrown his way -- but he's had his moments against the Patriots, and came through with a huge catch last week against the Colts.

8. If you're looking for a reason to be concerned, I suppose it's easy to fret about the depth -- or lack thereof -- on the Patriots' defensive line. Vince Wilfork needs to continue his dominant season, no easy task against Nick (I Pick Things Up, I Put Them Down) Mangold. Gerard Warren's steady play has been one of the subtle stories of the Patriots' season, but they're going to have to get contributions from the likes of Eric Moore, Kyle Love, and Landon Cohen. Not saying they won't -- hell, they probably will. But Myron Pryor will be missed, and that's something I never thought I'd write at the beginning of the season.

9. Wonder where Randy Moss is watching the game today. OK, cheap shot, 15-yard-penalty on me . . . but having been here at Gillette for his bizarre press conference after the win over the Bengals, it still remains unfathomable how it all changed, how he screwed up a perfect situation in a free-agent year. Probably goes without saying, but thank goodness he did, right?

10. Patriots 38, Jets 20. The only way the Jets win is if Brady suddenly becomes turnover-prone, LaDainian Tomlinson finds his 2003 form (and doesn't spend the day pouting behind a visor on the bench), and Mark Sanchez stops airmailing his receivers by five feet. I don't think any of those things will happen, let alone all three of them. By the start of the fourth, you'll be saying, "Bring on the Steelers."

In case you missed it (or tried to ignore it and just saw your luck take a terrible turn), today's media column/notebook is right here. It features more on the stratospheric NFL ratings, the good fortune CBS has with the intra-divison Pats-Jets and Ravens-Steelers rivalry matchups, and notes on Dickie V. reupping with ESPN and T.C. reupping with NESN.

There's also a thought from Phil Simms, who along with Jim Nantz will be in the booth at a Patriots game for the eighth time this season, on the Jets' chatty ways. CBS studio analyst Bill Cowher, who had a perm once, also touched on the topic, but that didn't make the column for space reasons. Maybe I should have used his more pointed comments instead. Have a look:

"I think Rex Ryan is being Rex Ryan. At some point it’s going to lose its luster…," said Cowher during a conference call this week with CBS NFL personnel. "The New England Patriots will say all the right things and they will say it’s just talk. But I can tell you back in that locker room and on Saturday night when Bill Belichick is talking to his team or Sunday morning, whenever that may be, some of those quotes will come back. And I’m going to tell you players can say what they want but you’re only going to be motivated by what you want. New England loves to make it personal. And Bill Belichick will make it personal. He’ll make his players make it personal. And I think I wouldn’t wake a sleeping giant. I think he may have done that."

Patriots fans require no reminder that Cowher is speaking from first-hand knowledge. His Steelers teams in the early 2000s -- particularly the 2001 squad -- were notorious for having a spotty record of backing up their bragging. It might be a stretch to say Cowher regrets letting his team talk so much smack, but it's apparent that some lesson -- perhaps "do not give Belichick ammunition" -- was learned. When he coaches again, it will be interesting to see if his new team is less verbally brazen than the ones he had in Pittsburgh.

By the way, has Kordell Stewart played that Super Bowl in his hometown yet? Seem to remember him mentioning he was looking forward to it.

Ten brief, possibly coherent, and overwhelmingly positive thoughts on the 14-2 Patriots before I pack up the gear here at rainy Gillette and paddle my rowboat back to Maine . . .

1. I know he had 50 touchdown passes three years ago. But you're not talking me out of it. Given the reliance on rookies and the personnel tweaks during the season, this was the most impressive regular season of Tom Brady's career. Thirty-six touchdowns. Four interceptions. It's as close to flawless as a quarterback can be.

2. Like many of you, I suspect, I've been down on Julian Edelman this season, mostly because he'd entered today's game with nearly as many drops (3) as receptions (4). But today's performance in place of Wes Welker (can't blame him for missing the rest of the regular-season finales of his career if he so chooses) was a reminder of why we were so optimistic about his future just last season, when he had 37 catches in his first year playing receiver after starring at quarterback at Kent State. He has lateral quickness that can't be taught, only enhanced with hard work, and by all accounts he puts in the time. Today's lesson: Don't quit on him yet.

3. I don't think I've even been more pleased to see a running back achieve the 1,000-yard milestone than I was for BenJarvus Green-Ellis today. The man earned his way into the league the hard way, and he's earned every hard yard he's gained since.

4. And by the way, that's one of the half-dozen reasons I hate the idea of the 18-game schedule. It makes the relevance of a 1,000-yard season obsolete.

5. Green-Ellis had 80 yards today on 20 carries. Laurence Maroney had 74 yards this season on 36 carries. I'm not sure what my point is, because I almost feel bad for Maroney, who seems to have the UFL in his near future, but it's worth pointing out nonetheless I guess.

6. Loved hearing Mike Haynes's name come up twice today in the Gillette press box: When McCourty pulled down his seventh interception of the season on Miami's first drive, pulling him within one of the Hall of Fame cornerback's rookie record of eight set during his legendary '76 season, and again when Julian Edelman took a punt back 94 yards for a score, eclipsing Haynes's record 89-yard return during the '76 season. It's not that we like seeing Haynes's records challenged or fall, but the reminder of a genuine and perhaps somewhat underappreciated legend in Patriots history is always worthwhile.

7. So Rob Gronkowski finishes his rookie season with 42 catches for 550 yards and 10 touchdowns (and a tip of the cap to my old friend Mike Reiss, who predicted early in the season that Gronkowski would reach double figures in TDs). It should be noted that Mark Bavaro had 37 catches for 511 yards and four touchdowns during his rookie season with the '85 Giants. I think you know what we're getting at.

8. As wonderful and entertaining and, to many alleged prognosticators, surprising this season has been, it is not the best coaching job of Bill Belichick's career. In fact, I'd put it third. There has never been a more improbable champion than the 2001 squad. While some players were better than we realized entering that season (Tom Brady, Troy Brown, Mike Vrabel, Roman Phifer to a degree), there was also a staggering lack of depth. J.R. Redmond was the third-down back (and a playoff hero). Jermaine Wiggins was the best tight end (and a playoff hero). Fred Coleman was the third receiver for a time (and a beatin'-the-Jets hero). To say that this season is better is to forget so much of what happened the year this all began.

9. As for his second-best coaching job? Doesn't it have to be 2008, when Brady was lost less than a quarter into the first game of the season? Matt Cassel has turned out to be a terrific quarterback, and it was fun to watch him continue to improve in '08. But if I recall, there was an outcry that the Pats should sign Chris Simms . . . or Daunte Culpepper . . . or Tim Rattay . . . because they couldn't possibly win with this kid who couldn't even get on the field in college. Instead, they won 11 games, an one of the greatest regrets of that season -- right behind Sammy Morris not pulverizing Bernard Pollard into the turf when he had the chance -- was not getting an opportunity to see what Cassel could do in the playoffs.

10. I'm a little surprised that the Patriots are playing at 4:30 p.m on Sunday the 16th. I figured that it would be the Saturday night game, which has usually been their preference. But I'll take a 4:30 start over an 8:30 start anytime. Now, with the time and place set . . . who do you hope they play in that game? I rank 'em this way, most worrisome to least worrisome: Colts, Ravens, Steelers, Chiefs, Jets. So in a way, I'm glad the Colts got the No. 3 seed, since they can't face the Patriots until the AFC title game. But all things considered? The team I've seen these last eight weeks -- the one that has put up at least 30 points in each successive win while the defense continues to grow -- is the one that I believe has the best chance at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy that February night in Dallas. Based on what you've seen and what you know about this team, do you believe it too?

The short, subjective answer to the question posed in the headline:

Ab-so-lutely.

So there. Case closed. If you disagree, you are either Archie Manning or prefer the Brady from the explosive 50-touchdown 2007 season to the killing-them-softly version of this season. Which, all facetiousness aside, is fine.

Statistically, Brady's 2007 remains the greatest in NFL history, slightly better than Peyton Manning's 2004 season when he threw 49 touchdown passes.

But this -- what is happening right now with this amazing quarterback and a mesmerizing, eerily familiar team full of possibilities -- is just as fun, and more impressive.

You know the numbers: An NFL-record 319 passes without an interception. Twenty-three touchdown passes since his last pick. And then there's the coolest number of all, courtesy of WEEI's Kirk Minihane on Twitter. Since Brady's last interception Oct. 17 against Baltimore, the Manning boys -- Peyton, Eli, and hell, include Cooper and Archie if you want -- have been picked off 31 times.

Brady has thrown 34 touchdowns with just four interceptions. According to our extensive yet rudimentary research, some of what he is accomplishing this season is as unprecedented as his feats in '07. Consider: Before this season, no quarterback has ever thrown 25 or more TD passes with five or fewer picks. Heck, only five had thrown 25 or more touchdowns with seven or fewer interceptions:

• Brett Favre, 2009: 33 TDs, 7 INTs. He really had an amazing year, right up until the moment he hit Tracy Porter in the numbers.
• Aaron Rodgers, 2009: 30, 7.
• Vinny Testaverde, 1998: 29, 7.
• Drew Brees, 2004: 27, 7. Easy to forget he was so good as a Charger.
• Steve Young, 1992: 25, 7.

And Brady this year. That's it. Whoops, wait, there's one more.

Coincidentally -- or perhaps a bit ironically, given that this is the quarterback who got his first chance to play since high school only after Brady was injured in '08 -- that group added a new member yesterday. Matt Cassel joined the club when the threw three TDs without a pick to improve his season numbers to 27 TDs and 5 INTs. If you're a Patriots fan who watched him grow during the Bradyless 2008 season, you have to be happy for him, and perhaps a little surprised as well.

It's extraordinarily exclusive company, for some names you might expect to see on that list -- Marino, Elway, Manning, Montana, the game's true legends and icons -- never gained admittance. For further context, we matched up some of Brady's key stats this year and in his career against those of the five other best quarterbacks we've ever seen play:

Biggest gap between TD and INT totals in a season:

Brady: 42. 50 TDs, 8 INTs in 2007.

Joe Montana: 18, three times. 28/10 in '84, 31/13 in '87, 26/8 in '89.

John Elway: 16. 27/11 in 1997 at age 37. I hope he thanked Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey in his Hall of Fame speech along with Terrell Davis. It was also Elway's career high in TD passes, a number Brady has surpassed five times.

Dan Marino: 31. During his legendary 1984 season, Marino threw a then-record 48 TD passes against 17 interceptions. I'm willing to bet he got all Tom Coughlin on a receiver after every one of those 17 picks.

Steve Young: 25. Our requisite southpaw threw for 35 TDs and just 10 INTs in 1994 for another stacked Niners team.

Peyton Manning: 39. 49 TDs, 10 INTs during the '04 season, which, all snark aside, is the best season an NFL quarterback not named Tom Brady has ever had. Yet . . . think Brady would trade his Super Bowl ring from that season for Peyton's numbers? I think we know better than that, don't we?

Lowest interception total in a season (300 attempts minimum)

Brady: Eight in 578 attempts, 2007.

Montana: Eight in 386 attempts, 1989.

Elway: Ten, three times. In a league-high 551 attempts in 1993, in494 attempts in '94, and in 356 in '98.

Marino: Nine in 373 attempts, 1996. Brady's career high in interceptions is 14, which he's done three times. Marino threw more than 14 picks in a season 10 times. That's a lot of yelling and finger pointing. You think Duper and Clayton wore earplugs? And yes, I am going to beat this Marino-yells-at-his-receivers angle to death. It's what I do. It's who I am.

Young: Six, twice. In 316 attempts in 1996 and 356 attempts in 1997. If you wanted to, you could make the argument that his peak was better than Montana's. I'd disagree . . . but you could build a case.

Manning: Nine in 557 attempts, 2006.

Highest passer rating in a single season:

Brady: 117.2 in 2007. Second-best all-time. His current season would put him sixth.

Montana: 112.4 in 1989. Fourth-best all-time.

Elway: 93.0 in his final season, '98. Brady's rating for his career is 95.0.

Marino: 108.9 in 1984, the season he and the Dolphins lost to Montana and the Niners in his lone Super Bowl appearance.

Young: 112.8 in 1994. Third-best all-time.

Manning: 121 in 2004. NFL record. One-hundred-and-21 is also the number of commercials he did that season, I believe. Also a record.

Brady's current passer rating of 109.8 would be good for sixth-best all time, behind the aforementioned seasons of himself, Manning, Montana, and Young as well as the fifth-best single-season passer rating of all time, which belongs to . . . Daunte Culpepper?! Yep, that Daunte Culpepper, late of the UFL's Sacramento Mountain Lions. During his 2004 season with the Vikings, he threw 39 TD passes against just 11 picks. Randy Moss sure made a lot of flawed quarterbacks -- Randall Cunningham, Jeff George -- look spectacular in his youth. In 2007, he helped make Brady transcendent.

Right now, though, in the season of Moss's bizarre and necessary departure, the truth is in the numbers and the aesthetics: Tom Brady is better than he has ever been. Which means he's better than anyone else has ever been, too.

* * *

When we watch Brady at his best, it's impossible not to recognize some of the traits and characteristics of the quarterback he grew up idolizing as a boy in the Bay Area, Joe Montana. The incredible accuracy, of course. And that poise, that uncanny sense to stay calm and focused, to take that subtle sidestep and hit the open man when all hell is breaking loose in the form of a ferocious pass rusher bearing down with menace on his mind. I can't think of two great quarterbacks with more in common than these two. (OK, maybe Dan Fouts and Drew Bledsoe. But I said great, and besides, Bledsoe didn't have an awesome beard.) And that's never more evident than what they accomplished in their age-33 seasons.

Check out Brady's numbers and accomplishments this year, then match them up Montana's 1989 season. Despite missing three games, Montana threw 26 touchdowns to just eight interceptions, completed 70.2 percent of his passes, threw for 3,521 yards (270.2 per game), and had the best rating of his career, 112.4. He was named the NFL MVP. Sound like anyone you know?

It should be noted that these Patriots, as accomplished as they are and may continue to be, would require the most brilliant scheme of Bill Belichick's career to beat those '89 Niners, who put themselves on the short list of the greatest teams in NFL history that season.

They went 14-2, and their two losses, to the Rams and Packers, came by a total of five points. They led the NFL in points (442), then rampaged through the playoffs, beating the Vikings, Rams, and Broncos by a combined score of 126-26.

It's worth noting that Montana, despite suffering a devastating hit by the Giants' Leonard Marshall in the 1990 postseason and missing all of 1991 and most of '92 with an elbow injury, continued to play to an extremely high level up to his retirement at age 38.

Brady, of course, has often said he wants to play until he's at least 40. Based on what Montana, his historical doppelganger, accomplished late in his career, who's to say he can't?

* * *

After all of this talk about his greatness, it's -- well, whiny, I guess -- to suggest Brady doesn't get his due. Despite the countless highlights provided by the Michael Vick Redemption Tour, he's a lock for the MVP award this year, something one of the more notable talking heads, Boomer Esiason, emphasized on WEEI this morning.

Still . . . let's fire up the whine machine anyway.

It is annoying to hear all of the plaudits heaved Peyton Manning's way for the miracles he's working playing with -- let's see, I think it's the three blind mice at receiver, a couple of running backs who suffer from polio, and a huddle filled with Culpepper's former UFL teammates, and the occasional beer vendor who knows how to run a go route. (This is the point where Blair White is usually cited as a punch line, while the existence of Reggie Wayne is overlooked.)

Maybe I'm still ticked that Manning was ranked 13 spots ahead of Brady on the NFL Network's 100 greatest players list -- actually, make that yes, I'm definitely still ticked -- but it's because the reality of the careers of the two greatest quarterbacks of this generation is this: Brady has beaten Manning with lesser firepower and broken his records when he had more.

Manning is an all-time great; Brady is better.

And the argument can be made with ease that winning with two street free-agents at running back, two rookie tight ends, a scar-kneed receiver for which might Seattle had no use, another scar-kneed receiver who had some subtle fits and starts during his comeback, and isn't what Brady has accomplished with this crew even more impressive yet again than what Manning has done with his?

* * *

Part of the reason that we appreciate the season-in-progress for Brady and the Patriots so much is because the ending to last season suggested that these days of efficient victories and selfless championship-level play may have been gone for good.

It's interesting to look at the game book from the Patriots' embarrassing 33-14 loss to the Ravens in the playoffs in January and consider the names that are no longer on the team.

Moss . . . Maroney . . . Thomas . . . Springs . . . Burgess . . . Watson . . . Thomas . . . Thomas . . . Thomas . . .

It's even more interesting when you consider Brady's blunt diagnosis of the team's downfall during his press conference after that Ravens whupping:

"There are some things that we didn't do well over the course of the year and I think the things we didn't do well today - a lot of [reasons] of why we've been successful and mental toughness and leadership and discipline and commitment and all those things that we displayed at times and certainly didn't display at other times. I think that's something that we all reflect on and individually, that's what we have to make more of a commitment to each other. I think [for the] guys that are going to be here next year - the 2010 version of the team - it's going to be something we can learn from this year."

I'd say they learned. Those who are still here, anyway. Those who are fortunate enough to be playing with a quarterback playing the position as well as it has ever been played.

Loved Jeff Pearlman's counter to the NFL Network's buzzy countdown of the top 100 players of all-time -- naturally, the 100 Worst Players Ever. Loved it. It's one of those smart yet shoulda-been-obvious ideas that makes you want to punt yourself for not thinking of it first.

Of course, digging it doesn't mean that I agree with it entirely. Otis Smith, rated the 71st-worst, does not belong here. He'd get burned from time to time, but he could also make plays on the ball, he was smart, and I wish the Patriots had someone like him right now instead of Jonathan Wilhite. The man earned his Super Bowl ring.

There are not nearly enough Bengals on the list -- they should have at least 20 of the top 100 worst players just on principle. There are way too many Jets, and strangely few Patriots. To put it another way, there are dozens of Patriots I'd trade for Johnny "Lam" Jones in his prime, including pretty much every Bobby Grier draft pick save for Kevin Faulk and Damien Woody.

Actually, scratch that: Just looked up Lam Jones's stats, and he probably does belong. He was done at 26, so he didn't even have a prime.

Lam can stay. But here are six Patriots who should join him on the Wretched 100, plus an extra point . . .

1. Chris Canty: The worst. Just . . . the worst. If there's been a more unlikable Patriots player in recent memory, I've apparently blacked him out of my mind. This is what Bobby Grier got with the 29th pick in the 1997 draft: A runty, not particularly quick cornerback who couldn't cover anyone, tackled like he thought such a thing was beneath him, and who very possibly began the trend, carried on dutifully by Brandon Meriweather and others, of celebrating a tackle after getting torched for a first down. On the plus side, it is possible that he inadvertently invented The Dougie at some point. Probably after a 28-yard gain by the guy who blew past him at the line of scrimmage.

2. Jeff Carlson: In three games (two starts) at quarterback for the wretched 1992 Patriots*, he completed 18 of 49 passes -- that would be a 36.7 completion percentage -- for 232 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. His passer rating 33.7. The worst quarterback I have ever seen play is Craig Whelihan, who made Pearlman's list. But I suspect that's only because I don't have any recollection whatsoever of Carlson.

* The Patriots went 2-14 in '92 with four quarterbacks -- Carlson, Hugh Millen, Tommy Hodson, and Scott Zolak. Guess who started in the two wins? Yep. Zo.

3. Eugene Chung: The first round of the 1992 NFL Draft was pretty lousy -- the Colts took los bustos Steve Emtman and Quentin Coryatt 1-2, Desmond Howard was the fourth pick, David Klingler the seventh . . . and some guy named Belichick goofed in Cleveland, selecting Touchdown Tommy Vardell ninth overall. But it's hard to find a bigger flop than Chung, the 13th choice who started 30 games during his first two seasons with the Patriots before Bill Parcells, who didn't seem to care that he was a first-round pick since he wasn't his first-round pick, buried him behind Bob Kratch in 1994, Chung's final season in New England. Looking at this card, it's appropriate that he already seems to be heading in reverse.

4. Chris Singleton: The Patriots might have had Junior Seau 16 years before Belichick brought him here had they not traded the No. 3 overall pick in the 1990 draft to the Seahawks for the eighth and 10th selections in the first round. With the third choice, Seattle chose Miami defensive tackle Cortez Kennedy, who became a perennial Pro Bowler. Two picks later, the Chargers swiped Seau. And with their choices? The Patriots got Singleton, an alleged pass rusher who had four sacks in four seasons (22 starts with the Patriots), and defensive lineman Ray Agnew, who'd go on to play 11 undistinguished seasons, the most undistinguished of which came as a Patriot. An awful trade made worse by awful use of the picks.

5. Ken Sims: Did you happen to catch the sight of Albert Haynesworth pathetically plopped all dormant and sessile on the FedEx Field turf Monday night like a sea lion, as Tom Curran perfectly put it on Twitter? Yeah, that sort of reminded me of Sims, a superbly gifted slug who performed adequately during an eight-year career in New England after being chosen No. 1 overall out of Texas in '82. He was supposed to be Reggie White before there was a Reggie White. He turned out to be much closer to this Reggie White.

6. Trevor Matich: I guess he's not the worst player in NFL history, given that he managed to hang around the league for 12 years, primarily as a long-snapper. But considering he was a flop as a lineman (12 career starts) after the Patriots chose him 28th overall in '85 . . . and considering that he was chosen with the lone first-round pick among the three selections the Patriots acquired from the San Francisco 49ers for the 16th pick in that '85 draft . . . and considering the player the 49ers chose with that pick ranked first on the NFL Network's list of the top 100 players . . . well, let's just say we like the symmetry of having Jerry Rice at No. 1 and Trevor Matich about as far from No. 1 as possible.

Extra point: Giovanni Carmazzi:And while we're talking symmetry, let's consider the 2000 NFL Draft. The San Francisco 49ers, in need of an heir at quarterback to Steve Young, grabbed Hofstra standout Carmazzi with the 65th pick, a selection endorsed by none other than Bill Walsh. One-hundred-and-thirty-four picks later, the Patriots spent a sixth-rounder on a skinny Bay Area kid who grew up idolizing Joe Montana and dreaming of playing for the Niners. Whatever Walsh thought he saw in Carmazzi -- who never took a snap in the NFL in two seasons -- proved abundant in Tom Brady. (You thought we meant someone else?) Funny how the talent in Brady, the closest thing to Montana we've ever seen, went unrecognized by the man who found Montana. Given how it's all worked out, I guess we can probably forgive them for Rice/Matich now.

The theme was consistent in the aftermath of another wildly unpredictable NFL Sunday, which culminated with the Patriots' affirming, shockingly easy 39-26 victory at Heinz Field Sunday night:

There are no elite teams in the NFL this year.

Right up until the Michael Vick Show last night, the notion dominated the day's NFL discussion no matter the medium -- harried postgame television analysis, sports radio yammering, even some reporter buddies chiming in on Twitter. You got the sense that those ubiquitous power-polls would have a 10-way tie for first, the consensus being that there is no consensus.

In Peter King's team rankings -- I should be clear, not of sugary overpriced beverages and preferred modes of travel, but of actual NFL teams -- the top spot was left vacant. It's a clever device, I guess, though the word vacant, perhaps appropriately, also implies an absence of analytical thinking.

The 6-2 Patriots overwhelmed the 6-2 Pittsburgh Steelers -- beat them at their own game, really, beat them up convincingly in their own yard -- and yet the performance is not a suggestion of their potential and/or burgeoning dominance, but confirmation that parity has come to the NFL like never before.

Funny how that works.

I can't be the only one who strongly suspects the talking point would have been different Monday had the Pittsburgh Steelers been the maulers rather than the maulees Sunday night. The Steel Curtain is back. Another step toward redemption for Big Ben. You know, Merril, they have won two Super Bowls since the Patriots last won one. Click.

I'm not denying the rest of this NFL season -- and the postseason to come -- is going to be wide open and wildly unpredictable. Taking a quick glance at the standings, there are at least six AFC teams (Patriots, Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Colts, and Chargers) I could see playing in Dallas in January, and five from the NFC (Giants, Eagles, Packers, Falcons, Saints) with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. That's 11 teams, more than a third of the league. Somewhere, Pete Rozelle nods in approval, then wonders who this Roger Goodell thinks he's fooling with his make-it-up-on-the-fly justice. (We like to think that's how it would go, anyway.)

Even if you're skeptical that the Patriots are the NFL's elite team at the moment, this much is certain. There is absolutely more elite talent -- or potentially elite talent -- on this roster than there was perceived to be just a month or two ago.

We'll begin with the obvious. Given the circumstances and context -- a pivotal game on the road against a talented, respected, fierce longtime rival -- that has to be one of the top five performances of Tom Brady's career.

He's had better statistical games, chucking six TDs against the Dolphins in '07 or playing practically flawlessly in the snow-globe blowout of the uninterested Titans last year. And he's earned maybe, what, a dozen more meaningful victories than this in his career where his stat line didn't do his performance justice? Sunday was the perfect amalgam of the two. He was spectacular statistically, and even more spectacular viscerally. If you've ever seen a finer throw than the first touchdown pass to Rob Gronkowski, please, send along the video.

And let's stop with the nonsense about Brady not being emotional. Yeah, he's become a little bit more Joe Cool than he was in his giddy NFL youth, when he exulted on every touchdown and obliviously pounded on a bewildered Drew Bledsoe's shoulder pads before Super Bowl XXXVI. But unemotional? Tell that to the hole he stared through Joey Galloway's head last year.

Yet Sunday night, it wasn't just the QB 12 show. Patrick Chung was the best safety on the field. (If only he had a shampoo endorsement to enhance his profile and exaggerate his skills.) Cris Collinsworth casually mentioned that Devin McCourty looks like a future Pro Bowl corner, an accurate, astute statement, yet one we wannabe draft gurus never would have believed back in April. Logan Mankins has somehow returned in his usual ferocious form. Jerod Mayo is the linebacker we hoped he'd become two years ago, before a knee injury stunted his sophomore season. Rob Gronkowski is a beast. Vince Wilfork's interior dominance is not a surprise, but his versatility makes him even more valuable. Alge Crumpler, once Vick's favorite target in Atlanta, has reinvented himself as a blocker so effective that he practically willed James Harrison invisible.

Now, despite the giddiness, I'm not saying this all adds up to confetti shower February 6 at Cowboys Stadium. Each Sunday brings more information about this team, and we'll have an even better gauge on their status at roughly 7 p.m. Sunday. A win over Peyton Manning and the Colts would be a pretty damn convincing confirmation of their status even to whatever naysayers remain. And I do understand the perception that the Patriots have something left to prove, that they can't stand alone above the field when the memory of a shocking loss to the mediocre Cleveland Browns is just a week old. But I'm willing to write that off as a young team looking ahead on the schedule, underestimating a supposedly weak opponent. Perceptive veterans such as Wilfork said they saw it coming during an uninspired week of practice. I trust the lesson has been learned, with Sunday's game submitted as indisputable evidence.

We do know how to recognize an elite team around here, you know. We've a seen one, or two, or three over the last decade. And what we saw Sunday night . . . it just looked so pleasantly familiar. The Patriots pummeled the Steelers on their own turf. They were coldly efficient, versatile, physical and unyielding. If so many of the names on the jerseys hadn't changed, I would have sworn NBC's telecast was a bootleg version of the 2004 AFC Championship Game.

The team I saw Sunday is the best team I have seen on any given Sunday in the NFL this season. They have a chance -- a chance, but a realistic one -- to carve their own niche in history before this season is done. If the Patriots truly are poised to pull off this throwback thing in both style and results, well, you know what that means for you, Peyton.

Whoops, we should probably clarify which Peyton.

We're talking about you, Manning. That Hillis guy? We're not messing with him again -- consider it another lesson learned. Yes, that's the kind of year it's been.

So many questions whirling about the Shocking Randy Moss Transaction of the Month. Or should we say, Transaction-To-Be, since the move isn't official yet. Like that's going to stop us . . .

How much would you have loved to be a fly in the film room when Bill Belichick got word this afternoon that the Vikings we're dumping the receiver for whom they gave up a third-round draft pick not even a full month ago? He must have looked like the Grinch when his heart grew three sizes that day.

• Did the Vikings have Brett Favre's jaw wired shut so he can't call a press conference to blather about his disappointment? I can't imagine what he might pull to get his name back in the headlines. Best guess: He'll shoot himself in the foot with his trusty BB gun, then blame it on Jenn Sterger.
• Who will claim Moss? The battered Chargers? Kansas City, to reunite him with Matt Cassel, a quarterback he helped make rich? The Redskins? The -- gasp -- Jets? What about Indy? Would Peyton Manning want him with the Colts? The Bengals, with T.O. and Ocho Cinco? Pete Carroll's Seahawks? Josh McDaniels's Broncos? The Ottawa RoughRiders? New Jersey Generals? The University of North Carolina?
• Is Brad Childress's ego really so fragile, or is he simply a paranoid control freak desperately clinging to his last bare threads of authority? Clearly he took Moss's comments yesterday as verbal insubordination, and reports indicate the Vikings thought he was joking when he said Moss was "no longer with them." And then he apparently decided to cut Moss -- inexplicably, he has roster autonomy -- without informing anyone else in the front office. This is the most unbelievable part of this to me. Did he think owner Zygi Wilf wouldn't notice when he wasn't on the field Sunday? Actually, Moss was barely noticeable yesterday, so perhaps that was Childress's plan. He's had dumber ideas.

Which brings us to the most tantalizing question of all: Could Moss's next destination be his previous home? Could he come back to the Patriots? It's fascinating to consider for a number of reasons, but I can't convince myself there is a chance, and not just because 30 teams will get a crack at him on waivers before the Patriots.

I think we all took his compelling "Baby, I'm sorry, I miss what we had together" act during yesterday's postgame press conference as an acknowledgment that he regrets forcing his way out of the best professional situation he's ever been in. His tone fell someone between pandering and pleading when he was talking about his affection for New England. It was quite a contrast to when he talked about the Vikings and was certainly disrespectful of Childress. ("There is a lot of film study that we leave in that room each day . . . I wish we could have had that three at the end of the half . . . PLEASE, MR. KRAFT. DON'T MAKE ME LEAVE AGAIN!!! PLEASE!!! I'LL LEAVE MY EARPHONES AT HOME NEXT TIME, PROMISE!!!")

He's probably holding up his boom box outside Tom Brady's place in the Back Bay right now. Giselle must be puzzled.

It sure didn't take long for his Vikings sequel to turn into a wake-up call. He thought he was getting traded back to the Vikings, the team with which he made his Hall of Fame name. What he likely realized in three short weeks was that he might as well have been dealt back to the Raiders given the Vikings' dysfunction and the Childress/Favre ego fight.

We know better than to say never with Moss -- who would have thought a month ago that he'd have bounced from the Patriots to the Vikings to NFL purgatory by now? Maybe the lesson is learned and his perspective has been altered, and he can convince Belichick of as much. Maybe Belichick believes he can bring him back this season without fear of an outburst or another goofy, incendiary press conference or having to watch him run half-hearted pass routes because he's not the focus of the offense and doesn't have a new contract.

What a story a comeback route would make. But there's an even better story in the making. The Patriots are 6-1, and 3-0 since he left. There's an irresistible 2001 vibe about this team, with all the kids and the Ninkoviches and Arringtons thriving, and you look at the names they've pared off the roster since last season -- Thomas, Burgess, Maroney, and yes, Moss -- and you realize selflessness, focus and unity are again atop the priorities list.

Maybe Moss has been humbled by his Minnesota hiatus. But given what the Patriots have become without him, he's not worth the risk. In a way, he will remain to this team what Terry Glenn was to the 2001 Patriots -- a talented, high-maintenance, eventually discarded afterthought.

Which is why Moss's words yesterday will always read as a goodbye and a thank-you rather than anything foreshadowing a potential return.

"Maybe it could have been different. Maybe not," he said. "I don't know how many more times I'm going to be up here in New England, but I'm going to leave the New England Patriots, coach Belichick, man, with a salute. Man, I love you guys. I miss you. I'm out."

Less than 24 hours later, he's out of Minnesota, too. And we wait, with equal parts skepticism and eagerness, to discover if the Patriots fulfill his thinly veiled wish and bring him back in.

It's a contradictory set of feelings to be sure. Which, given the player we're talking about, couldn't seem more appropriate.

* * *

A few other thoughts on the Patriots we were working on when the Moss bombshell dropped . . .

BenJarvus Green-Ellis had 117 rushing yards yesterday -- 43 more than Laurence Maroney has this season -- and scored a touchdown for the fifth straight game. It would easy to say that there's something to be said for putting your head down and running straight ahead . . . except that Green-Ellis, who is averaging 4.4 yards per carry, has a little bit more style than he gets credit for. He's never going to be mistaken for Maroney in the open field -- that is, if you can remember the times Maroney got through the line and to the open field -- but he came close to breaking a couple of long ones yesterday, and he's got a little more shimmy that he gets credit for. Feel free to go ahead and consider this yet another complimentary comparison to Antowain Smith.

* * *

Maybe the Patriots miss Kevin Faulk in some subtle ways that aren't apparent to this Sunday citizen of the couch. I'm sure they do. But Danny Woodhead -- averaging 4.9 yards per carry, tied for fourth on the team with 14 catches, and the author of two completely Faulkian plays (the direct-snap TD and a 16-yard catch-and-run to pick up a first down with under 4 minutes remaining -- has been a very reasonable facsimile, and perhaps even the long-term successor. (In a related note, loved seeing him in the No. 39 throwback jersey yesterday. He looked like a kid wearing a Sam Cunningham gamer in 1977.)

* * *

I'm jumping the gun here like Jared Allen trying to make up for that step he's apparently lost, but I don't care. I realize these guys aren't even a half-season into their NFL careers, but hypothetically and for the fun of it, let me ask you this: If there were a do-over on the 2010 NFL Draft tomorrow morning, where would Devin McCourty be selected? McCourty looks like a genuine No. 1 cornerback -- one who is also willing and able tackler, not exactly a common attribute among "shutdown corner" stars at the position. A top-notch corner might be the rarest asset in the NFL these days. He'd have to go in the top 10, right? The irony is that he's become so valuable as a cornerback that its almost too risky to put him on special teams, which was widely believed to be his best skill by those puzzled by his first-round draft status.

* * *

I wouldn't want to be a fan of these Vikings. Save for perhaps the Chargers (who have injuries as an excuse to some degree), they are the classic the-whole-is-less-than-the-sum-of-its-parts team in the league, and that includes Dallas, whose talent is overrated annually. As frustrating as the Vikings must be to root for -- Childress forgets Adrian Peterson is on his team at the most inconvenient times -- it is impressive to watch the individual skill of some of their players. We've known Peterson was the total package since he was a freshman at Oklahoma, but it's startling to watch a running back with so much skill take such pleasure in punishing his would-be tacklers. It may cost him years off his career, as Troy Aikman noted yesterday, but you have to admire a running back puts staying bounds and gaining an extra yard or two ahead of self-preservation. It's Paytonesque, and there's not a higher compliment for a running back than that.

* * *

The other Viking who is a blast to watch is Percy Harvin, who runs his patterns like a receiver but has the open-field moves of a running back. I don't know if we'll ever know for sure whether Brad Childress's claim that they drafted him in the first round in 2009 knowing that the Patriots coveted him is true, but it could be. The Vikings took him 22d; the Patriots traded the 23d pick to the Ravens when they were on the clock and ended up with four second-rounders, their top choice being Patrick Chung at No. 34. No gripes here about how that turned out, particularly since the Patriots ended up with a relatively similar player in Brandon Tate in the third round, but if they were interested in him, Sunday was a reminder why.

* * *

It never dawned on me that the middle of the game would overlap with prime trick-or-treating hours until I heard Jonathan Kraft apologize for the start time during his spot on the Patriots pregame show. So like many of you, I imagine, I DVR'd the second half and took the queen and Superman on the neighborhood candy raid they've been anticipating since about June. I managed to peek at the score at a few houses -- and got a few knowing nods and occasional details from the dads who talked their wives into letting them stay home and hand out the goodies, a more football-friendly duty. But I didn't know that Favre had been knocked out of the game until my wife filed her sideline report when we got home. She said he'd been hit in the mouth and it looked bad and had to be carted off. I snorted and said he'd find a way to have postgame press conference even if his jaw had to be amputated and the rest of his face was now wired to his neck. Wouldn't you know it, less than, what, an hour later, there he was, drawling over 100 I's, me's, and my's in a 12-question press conference, and that's when my wife understood why Favre is a first-ballot Hall of Fame drama queen. Now, if we could just convince some certain national NFL broadcasters of the same.

* * *

As for today's Completely Random Football Card:

You've been in the public eye since the beginning of forever. You were apparently a master at keeping your hands warm during those frigid Sundays in Minnesota. And you had one fewer catch than Moss yesterday. Here's to you, Ahmad. Here's to you.

Ten lingering thoughts on the Patriots' escape from Qualcomm . . .

1. In the aftermath of the Patriots' win, which I think we can probably agree was due in large part to the Norvball Chargers' own ineptitude, I was resigned to the notion that the recurring theme among most media and the most skeptical of fans would be yeah, but.

Yeah, they won, but . . . the Chargers tried to give it to them . . . and tried again . . . and tried again . . . and still they had a chance to tie . . . and Brady struggled (for him, anyway) . . . and they couldn't run the ball . . . and we haven't even mentioned 4th and 1 yet . . . and . . . yeah, they won but . . .

Which is fine. They're all valid points to some degree. But ultimately, you know what? They won. On the road. Against a talented and desperate opponent in the Chargers, led by an outstanding quarterback in Philip Rivers.

I'll take the win, and I'll take 5-1, particularly with a rebuilt and improving defense and an adjusting offense in its second week post-Moss. I'll worry about the consequences of inefficient or erratic play later. They won, over a skilled foe in a tough environment, and while it might have been ugly and had some unnecessary suspense at the end, was a tremendous win. And in this year's version of the NFL, where parity rules and the best teams seem to vary week to week, every single victory matters a heck of a lot more than style points do. No buts about it.

2. OK, so this is what I wrote in this spot in response to the Patriots' selection of Devin McCourty in the first round of the NFL Draft in April:

I'm still not sure about the Patriots selection of McCourty -- it's disconcerting when the first thing you hear about a player is in regard to his special teams skills. But I'm smart enough to give Bill Belichick the benefit of the doubt, and the rest of their draft was pretty reassuring and encouraging.

OK, so that wasn't exactly an endorsement of the kid, but given the general "who the . . . Belichick, you've gone mad!" reaction to the pick among the more reactionary of the Twitterati, I'm feeling pretty good on where I came down on the pick competitively. It's evident six games into his NFL career that McCourty, who had a textbook interception Sunday, not only is a tremendous athlete, particularly for his size, but a fast learner. I can't wait to see him go stride-for-stride with Mr. Moss next Sunday. And in the future, when Belichick puzzles Mel Kiper Jr. by spending a first rounder on some massive defensive end from Southeast Texas State Agricultural and Tractor who Gary Wichard has never heard of, I'm going to put away my skepticism for fear of eating a heaping helping of crow once we actually see the kid play.

3. If there's an underutilized weapon in the Patriots' passing game, it has to be Rob Gronkowski, doesn't it? He presents a matchup problem at 6-foot-6, he's fast enough to get open in the middle of the field, has demonstrated to have stick-'em hands (Brady made a bad throw on his TD grab Sunday), and while he's already proven a Vrabelesque red zone threat (three TDs), he has just nine receptions for 96 yards. If defenses continue to focus on Wes Welker as the Chargers did, Gronkowski should end up as one of the beneficiaries. And you could argue that's already overdue.

4. One of the little reasons I generally prefer baseball (and to a lesser degree, NBA basketball) to the NFL is the seemingly smaller chance of significant injury to a player crucial you enjoy watching. That may sound ridiculous coming after a Red Sox season in which a talented and intriguing team was decimated by injuries, but it's my theory and I'm sticking to it. That considered, if the reports that Patrick Chung will miss no more than a week or two with an apparent knee injury suffered in the first quarter Sunday, I will absolutely take it, breathe a huge sigh of relief, and thank the football gods for sparing us from another season of the Meriweather-Sanders Step-Too-Late tandem at safety.

5. Bill Belichick will never admit it, but I'm convinced one of the reasons he decided to go for it on fourth-and-1, if not the main reason, was the erratic performance of long snapper Jake Ingram Sunday. Zoltan Mesko fielded more grounders and one-hoppers than Derek Jeter did in the entire ALCS, and the fear that Ingram had the yips for the afternoon and might be on the verge of launching one over Mesko's head to the Patriots' 25-yard line or so had to play some role in Belichick's thinking.

6. The last five Chargers head coaches, in chronological order: Kevin Gilbride, June Jones, Mike Riley, Marty Schottenheimer (with Wade Phillips as his defensive coordinator), and Norv Turner. If San Diego ever lands a truly capable head coach such as Bill Cowher or that guy Jon Gruden, its going to feel to Chargers fans like they just got Lombardi in his prime. Or Belichick. Figured you'd say it if I didn't.

7. Tully Banta-Cain had 10 sacks last year, as many as he had in the previous four seasons combined. Five of those sacks game in the two games against the Bills, who played a season ago like they were unaware were required to field five offensive linemen. Banta-Cain has 1.5 sacks (none since Week 2) and 14 tackles this year -- a half-sack more and a tackle fewer than rookie Jermaine Cunningham, who has nine of his tackles over the past two weeks.The point is two-fold: Cunningham is yet another newbie on this rebuilt and blossoming defense who is hinting that he may be an impact player for years to come . . . and that three-year, $13.5 million contract Banta-Cain signed in the offseason is not looking like money well spent.

8. That was just a -- I don't know, weird? -- performance Sunday for Brady, who seemed to lack his customary sixth sense for feeling the rush in the pocket. He was sacked a season-high four times and tied his season-low with 19 completions, in eight more attempts (32) than his previous 19-completion game against Miami. Aesthetically, it reminded me considerably of his performance against the Chargers during the 2006 playoffs . . . .but upon checking out the recaps and box scores, it was actually sort of the opposite. Brady wasn't his usual close-to-flawless self in either game, but his rating Sunday (82.7) was higher than his 59.5 from the Marlon McCree Bowl . . . and that's despite throwing for a meager 159 yards versus 280 in the '06 game, a 24-21 win. The difference? Brady threw three picks in the playoff game, while he managed to avoid any aerial miscues Sunday despite being under siege by the unsung Kevin Burnett, Shaun Phillips, and the Chargers' very impressive post-Merriman defense.

9. Brett Favre may shrewdly position himself as a just-a-good-ol'-boy, never-meanin'-no-harm -- albeit one who apparently does a little ol' textin' from the John Deere -- but he's certainly done his share of harm to the Patriots through the years. You probably don't need to be reminded that Favre has directly or indirectly foiled some of the Patriots' best-laid plans -- beating them in Super Bowl XXXI, going through the motions in '02 against the Jets to keep the Patriots out of the playoffs, blowing it with one of his patented brain-lock interceptions against the Giants in the NFC title game in '07, and so on. So if there's any justice, he'll give it a go on his broken ankle Sunday, if only to keep his consecutive starts streak alive (and perhaps to spite his coach), and the Patriots will get to be the beneficiary of his poor decisions, his desire to force the ball to Randy Moss, and his declining skills. That 35-0 win over Favre and the Packers in 2006? Not nearly enough revenge for my liking, particularly since he made his escape near halftime and nearly ran over Ellis Hobbs while getting carted off the field with an elbow injury. Play, Brett, play.

10. As for today's Completely Random Football Card:

Now there's a welcome flashback. Ramsey was one of my favorite Patriots of the Raymond Berry/"Squish The Fish" era. ( I also had an appreciation of the Weathers brothers and Greg Hawthorne that wasn't necessarily supported by their production.) While Ramsey's time with the Pats was relatively brief -- he played 34 games over two-plus seasons -- the 6-foot-4-inch, 230-pounder had a terrific receiving season in '85, catching 66 passes for 792 yards and seven touchdowns. Now that I think of it, I wonder if Aaron Hernandez will surpass those reception/yardage numbers from Ramsey's fine season this year.

He picked up a couple of scars on his knees during his four years in Seattle, his lucrative but ultimately unfulfilling professional purgatory. His hair is different and his face shows the years a little more. And his old familiar No. 83 belongs to and is more associated with Wes Welker now. He's now No. 84 in your GameDay program.

Otherwise, the Deion Branch we saw Sunday sure looked just like the Deion Branch we all remembered so well, didn't he? His performance -- nine catches, 98 yards, one touchdown and damn near a second -- looked like it could have come out of his highlight reel, the moment matching up perfectly with the memories.

I'm so sentimental about this that I'm about to queue up some John Sebastian here -- Was there something that made you come back again/And what could ever lead ya/Back here where we need ya -- for which I will now apologize but not really mean it. Let's just say the performance by ol' No. 83 new No. 84 made for a heck of a welcome-back party.

I realize I'm late to this particular party (as usual . . . it's like I'm on a three-day delay on this blog lately, and I hate it), but I doubt anyone minds. The Patriots' 23-20 victory over the Ravens Sunday is one of those wins that linger, one of those wins that leaves a smile on your face for hours after the game as you replay the highlights in your mind, one of those wins that puts a little extra bounce in your step as you roll out of bed the next day and remember how it all went down. While Bill Belichick and his team surely moved on to the Chargers at, oh, roughly 4:30 p.m. Sunday, it's OK for us to savor it.

The performance confirmed a lot of things about this football team -- that they could beat a legitimate top-quality opponent, that the Wilforks and McCourtys and Cunninghams and Chungs and Mayos, yes, even the formerly anonymous Ninkoviches, Deadericks and Fletchers, are accelerating toward becoming a very compelling defense by the time the postseason is here, and that the Back To The Future passing game worked, for the most part, as if Bill O'Brien had stumbled upon an old Charlie Weis play sheet or the Patriots had never deviated from it in the first place.

Yes, it was an incredibly fun victory, one that in a way made up for the lost chance to properly savor the Miami win because of the Randy Moss bombshell, and it was appropriate and rewarding that Branch was such a significant factor. To be honest, I didn't expect him to contribute so much so soon; I thought Brandon Tate and Aaron Hernandez would be featured more, while Branch would slide in as a third receiver and maybe catch three or four balls.

Maybe that's how it will go eventually. But this Sunday, it sort of evolved like this.

First quarter: "Hey, Branch caught a pass. Nice to have him back."

Second quarter: "Man, he's actually a pretty big part of the passing game today. Impressive."

Third quarter: "This is exactly the Deion we remember. How come Seattle never used him right, anyway? Seahawks are a dumb bird!"

Fourth quarter: "He's open in the end zone! He's open! . . . AAAHHH! So close! Could have been the perfect ending!"

Overtime: "Just get him the ball a couple of times, Brady, and then Vinat . . . er, Gostkowski can win it."

So yeah, I probably should have known he would rise to the occasion. That has been his history, after all. One reason Branch remained so widely admired by New England football fans was the little receiver's knack for playing big in the biggest moments.

He was the MVP of Super Bowl XXXIX with 11 catches for 133 yards -- including a spectacular catch he snagged a split-second after it sailed through the hands of an unbelieving Eagles defensive back. And he was equally spectacular, if not the official MVP, in the Patriots' Super Bowl win over Carolina the previous season, when he had 10 catches for 143 yards, including a 17-yard reception that helped set up Adam Vinatieri's winning kick.

It is Branch's association with those cherished times in franchise lore, as well as his reputation as a smart, precise, hard-working receiver who long ago won the unyielding trust of Brady, that kept alive the daydream that he'd someday play for the Patriots again.

Before Sunday's redemptive return, he final image of Branch in a Patriots uniform was of him standing on the Patriots' sideline, tears streaming down his cheeks, as the bid for three straight titles and four in five years ended in the thin air of Denver at the hands of Champ Bailey and Jake Plummer in the 2005 AFC Divisional Playoffs.

There was never any doubt about how much he cared.

And that's why all was easily forgiven long ago regarding his messy departure in a contract dispute in September 2005, which was arguably a more egregious exit than Moss's fly pattern to Minnesota. By the time the Doug Gabriel/Reche Caldwell missed opportunity in 2006 had passed, we weren't mad at him. We just wished he'd never left.

This is no knock on Randy Moss, who was always entertaining, often spectacular, and would have been a Super Bowl hero in his own right had the defense been able to stop Eli Manning.

But Deion Branch is back where he always belonged. And suddenly, all feels right with the Patriots.

It can't be all coincidence, you know.

Well, now it all makes sense. Randy Moss is back in Minnesota, where he ran his first go-route toward Canton, because he had a grooming fight with Tom Brady.

It really shouldn't surprise us, I suppose. Anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of NFL lore is aware that this sort of stuff has happened since the days of leather helmets, drop kicks, and undiagnosed concussions.

You should hear Steve Sabol tell the story about the time Bronco Nagurski and Red Grange nearly bare-knuckle brawled to the death in the 1933 Chicago Bears locker room over a can of Burma Shave. It's mesmerizing.

Sorry, Charley. I mean, c'mon, if you think we actually believe that . . .

• . . . this Brady/Moss incident actually happened.

• . . . had it actually happened, Tom Brady wouldn't have laughed it off and defused it with his usual self-effacing humor, for his ability to make fun of himself and take just-one-of-the-guys verbal abuse has helped him remain a popular teammate despite being married to a supermodel and looking like that smirking fella in the J. Crew catalog you want to strangle with his $79 llama wool scarf.

• . . . had it actually happened, it would have resulted in the massive overreaction of Moss being instantly expatriated to Minnesota as punishment.

Did Brady and Moss bicker from time to time? No doubt about it -- find me a quarterback and receiver who haven't. It's the nature of competitive sports, football in particular. Philip Rivers delivers a sneer with every pass. Peyton Manning shakes his head when Reggie Wayne drops one. Hell, I half expected Dan Marino to scream at Mark Duper and Mark Clayton during that ceremony Monday night, just for old times' sake.

I think we've all wondered about the level of sincerity of Brady's relentless praise for Moss, whether it was about his football IQ or the effort he put in on the field and so on. I tend to believe at least a portion of it was done to keep Moss's healthy yet fragile ego well-maintained, just as throwing to him periodically when he was covered was done to keep him involved. Which, of course, is fine. It's what a smart quarterback does.

But the notion that the breaking point for Moss and Brady -- and perhaps the breaking point for Moss and the Patriots -- had anything to do with beards and haircuts is almost as foolish as that acorn-hoarding pelt atop Casserly's head.

Why did they trade him? Here is why, so far as I can deduce: He was unhappy with his contract situation, obsessed with his future, and to some degree, he was being a pain in the neck, whether it was listening to his earphones at a charity banquet, bickering with Bill O'Brien (who frankly, should absolutely be bickered with), providing bizarre, entertaining postgame soliloquies, or whatever else might have happened that we don't know about. Belichick realized it wasn't going to get better and Moss was en route to becoming insubordinate, had faith in the young guys on offense, particularly rising star Aaron Hernandez, and decided to swiftly eliminate the problem before it became a Problem.

If you've got a more logical theory than that, please do share.

Roughly 14,604 words (and, nearly, buckets of feuding sports-yakker blood!) have been spilled around here on the Moss deal since it officially went down Friday morning.

Let me throw a few more words into the pot while we wait to watch him make his debut with his new/old team, hopefully again leaving Darrelle Revis in a heap of wounded hamstrings ...

* * *

With the caveat that I haven't exactly been spot-on with my Most Likely To Implode predictions this year (the Jets are better than I expected . . . until Rex cries, then all bets are off!), I'm convinced this deal is going to be a spectacular failure for the Vikings. Think about it. They have a pushover head coach in Brad Childress. They have perhaps the game's finest running back. They have other very capable weapons such as Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe. They have a 41-year-old quarterback who has clamored to play with Moss for years, isn't exactly known for his wise decision-making, has never grown up, openly admits he will throw Moss's way when he's covered, and may no longer have the arm to reach him downfield. To put it another way: This sinking ship will relegate the time Fred Smoot tried to purify some friends in the waters of Lake Minnetonka to the second-biggest nautical embarrassment in Vikings history.

* * *

I should probably know better considering how much sports radio I'm required to listen to in the course of a week, but I never fail to be stunned and disappointed by the instant Belichick's lost it! yelping whenever he makes a roster move that is unexpected or against conventional wisdom.

You'd think his track record and the fact that he's turning over this roster on the fly while still winning more than he loses would buy him the benefit of the doubt. But it rarely does, which is puzzling and a little disappointing. It's really not that difficult to look at his history with controversial moves and realize that his success rate is pretty close to that of Adam Vinatieri in big moments. Consider his four most controversial moves with the Patriots (actually, letting Vinatieri go might be the fifth, and that worked too).

• Traded Drew Bledsoe to the Buffalo Bills for a No. 1 pick. The yelp: How could they trade Drew within the division!? He's gonna haunt us for years! The result: Exposed Bledsoe time and again. Turned pick into Ty Warren.

• Cut Lawyer Milloy. The yelp: He cut Loy-ah! He's hahhhtless! The result: One ugly season-opening loss in Buffalo in 2003. Back-to-back Super Bowls. The realization that Rodney Harrison (and for a too-brief time, Eugene Wilson) was pretty damn good.