February 25, 2005
Powder to the People!
The BEST skiing and riding in the COUNTRY is going to right here in our own backyards by Tuesday and it should stick around for some time to come. We are looking at a MAJOR snowstorm! The full Friday Roemer Report is attached below.
From Sugarbush.com - Photographer: Matt Lovely Skier: Grant Gary
Let me tell you this. In a not so mainstream email I got from Dr. Weather this afternoon he is going for much bigger totals, off the record. There are mentions of 4 FEET in isolated places around the Northern Green Mountains.
Folks, this is going to be as good as it gets. GO SKIING! Do it for yourself. You have all heard the old saying, “There are no friends on Powder Days.” Snow events the likes of what is on the way early next week are why you by the gear, read the magazines and watch the movies.
Do whatever you have to in order to ensure you are partaking in the best conditions of the season. Sleep in a car, pay up for a room, dump your significant other, call in sick or just quit your day job all together. You miss this one and you mine as well trade your skis for a bunch of jigsaw puzzles and stay home all winter.
Keep Thinking Snow,
S.G.
Roemer Report for SUGARBUSH, VT: Friday 2/25/05 Best Ski Weather
*MARCH MAY COME IN LIKE A LION BURIED IN SNOW
We've turned on the keys to a late February-early March snow engine that shows no signs of going idle for at least a week or two, and possibly for the entire month of March. Next week's storm has the potential for being the biggest snow event here since December, 2003 when two storms produced between 30-40 inches here.
On Monday we began talking about a possible nor'easter here for next week. I have been very conservative, not wanting to go on a limb, because frankly ski conditions have improved appreciably from where they were a few weeks ago, and we have suggested that off and on snows will continue well into March with no chance of a freeze-thaw-ice type weather pattern that we saw earlier. In other words, no rush, just get up here and ski because things are going to be great whether we get a full fledged blizzard, or just a few inches of snow every couple-few days.
I wanted to wait till early this afternoon to have my weekend update and to see more maps, but I am getting pounded with e-mails and questions about this upcoming storm, and many of you want to, and should book reservations in the Warren-Waitsfield area as early as possible so here goes----
A primary U.S. computer model that all meteorologists look at, including the National Weather Service, has "consistently" been calling for a major nor'easter here all week for next Tuesday. Now here is an oxymoron: because of this consistency, I have been reluctant to forecast big snows too early here. Why, because I rarely look at and believe this particular model beyond 3-4 days at most. Other models I look at have been all over the place. One particular model that helped me forecast the recent 3-4 foot snows here the last two weeks is coming around to this U.S. Model. Usually, it is the other way around.
I went back and looked at historical wind currents at 15,000 feet. One particular historical weather pattern that might have compared was March, 1971 when 80"+ in a week across parts of Vermont. I also looked at March 14th, 1984 when 2-3 feet fell here in 36 hours. The best 24 hour snowstorm ever was March 2, 1888 when 3 feet of snow fell--I would have preferred to have had weather maps back then, than an automobile today.
Though there will be some adjustment in next weeks storm track, what I am almost more impressed with is the upper level dynamics behind the storm. In October, 2000, we had 24" here due to very cold pool of air aloft sitting over us for 48 hours, while at the surface, temperatures and dewpoints were latent with moisture. This has actually happened a couple times since 2000, with several 8-14" snow events here.
The first map (1friday) shows two low pressure areas by Monday afternoon. The primary low is over Indiana and Ohio and the secondary one over North Carolina. If the primary one takes over, 6-12" of snow would fall here but southeasterly winds could cause a short term change over to rain or ice on Tuesday. If the secondary storm takes over and moves east of Cape Cod (most likely scenario), then 1-2 feet of snow here will fall Monday night and or all day Tuesday--this is the way I am leaning right now. But that is not it!!
The next map (gfs 500) shows a very cold, incredibly dynamic upper level cold air mass by Tuesday night and Wednesday--the one similar to the October, 2000 jet stream I just mentioned. But it is not going to dry out at the low levels for several days. In other words, temperatures will be in the 20's through probably Wednesday or even early Thursday but well below zero at 15,000 feet. Hence, orographic type snows could result in another foot+ of snow here "after" the storm goes by later Tuesday-Wednesday evening.
If temperatures were in the teens next week; we would get 40-50 inches of snow here over a 2-3 day period. Temperatures will be much warmer.
MY FORECAST IS THIS---
Sunny and high in the 60's next week---great sunflower planting weather--no just kidding
80% chance of 12-18" later Monday night-Wednesday evening; 60% chance of 18-26"; 35% of 26-36"
FREQUENT UPDATES, FREE PASSES AND ADJUSTMENTS IN FORECAST AVAILABLE TO SUBSCRIBERS AT WWW.BESTSKIWEATHER.COM
1friday
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