March 1, 2005
Dr. Weather---Roemer
Guru Tuesday Report, followed by Roemer's forecast. Snowing like crazy in Waitsfield, VT this morning! Storm arrived late, actually early this AM (first flakes falling around 5:00 AM.) SIX INCHES on the ground in town already, good light snow. Winter storm warning for the area have been extended until tomorrow 8:00 AM, looking at at least a couple feet in the mountains. Thursday will be the Gem!
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*EL NINO WEAKENING--THIS MAY HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS FOR MARCH
"Skiers, snowboarders and weather junkies, lend me your ears;
I've come to bury New England and Quebec and to praise her."
Bury her? yes, many areas in the northern/central Green Mountains and White Mountains will get buried, as well as Maine. But if you want to ski at such resports as Mt. Sunapee, Magic Mountain, Hunter, Gore and S. Vermont--don't worry--1-2 feet is coming your way too.
. It would not surprise me that over the next 2 weeks, 3-5 feet of snow fall in the northern mountains of New England and at least 3 feet in the south.--possibly close to double our normal March snowfall.
Why is this happening? One reason may be the demise of El Nino.
El Nino has been weakening and so may go the split-flow in the southwesterly US that has brought some of the best skiing ever to places like Telluride, Colorado to Taos, New Mexico.
NEW ENGLAND--
As the sun angle and hours of daylight increase during March , the lower level of the atmosphere tends not be as cold as it is during the heart of winter. Trees, dark objects, etc. absorb light and heat more readily than air does at the higher elevations. With large bodies of cold air still poised the higher latitudes of Canada and the Arctic, very unstable air can result as it remains cold aloft, but much milder at the lower elevations.
Case and point----The map valid for early Wednesday a.m.. shows the jet stream at 15,000 feet. The center of the coldest air aloft is right over northern Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine and denoted by numerous "x's" and a 510-516 circle. The lower the number, the colder the air aloft. We are talking about temperatures of -20 degrees at this level but remaining mostly in the 20's at the lower elevations here through Wednesday. This will result in orographic uplift snows that may last well into the day on Wednesday. The mountains will enhance snows greatly.
At the surface, the second map (nam _slp 048) shows two low pressure system by Wednesday a.m-- one heading out past Nova Scotia and another one over the Gulf of Maine. Without one major low pressure system but two separate ones, most forecasters are downplaying snow amounts to under 10-12". However, because of the above mentioned scenario for uplift snows, enhanced by the cold air aloft the mountains, I still think we are in for some surprises.
This battle between the first low pressure system (Ceaser) and the second (Brutus) will slow each other day and hence a good 36 hours of snowfall will fall in the mountains--that's a long time.
With regard to wind----The wind forecast in some ways is tricker than the snow forecast for me. This is because these intense storms may actually have an "eye"--or weakness up to 5,000 feet-- and if so wind may not be much stronger than 25-30 MPH tomorrow afternoon and there could be some nice powder before the slopes close. On the other hand if the storms remain in the Gulf of Maine, winds could exceed 50-60 MPH on top, but the best chance for that happening may be during the day on Wednesday with a gradual improvement on Thursday and into the weekend with temps falling into the teens at the lower levels and single numbers to near zero aloft.
With the wind ,the woods will be awesome Wednesday through the weekend.
The longer term pattern heading well into mid March is one that will continue to feature off and on snows and no chance of any freeze-thawing like we were witnessing in December and January.
Though some adjustments in this pattern may occur, the third map (gfs 500 GFS) depicts the "potential jetstream on March 12th. The 564-570 lines out of the Pacific northwest and western Rockies suggest a warm-dry trend that may end the seemingly incessant snows that have hit Utah this winter, but will fortify a devastating drought that has closed many ski resorts in Oregon, Washington and Idaho. The 493 line suggests some of the coldest air aloft of the winter heading toward Ontario at this time. You can follow the lines straight south from the Arctic ( top of the picture) down into New England and see that it will be cold aloft here. Hence, the above mentioned scenario that will be with us the next few days could well happen again and keep ski conditions here ideal well into March.
WESTERN AND WESTERN CANADA WEATHER----The next 10 days
I see a "much drier weather pattern for the Cottonwood Valley, Colorado, the Tahoe-Sierra-Nevada regions which has enjoyed basically incessant snow since October. The Tahoe region is receiving some snow today but that may be it for a while. The drought will also linger in the Pacific northwest with little chance for drought breaking snows in the longer term. However, over the next few days, more than a foot of snow could fall at Mt. Baker and Mt. Hood with lighter amounts in Idaho and Montana which really needs some snow. Whistler may get over a foot of snow the next few days, as well as portions of interior BC. However, for the most part, a return to below normal snowfall with return to most areas in western Canada with a big decrease in moisture expected for the Canadian Rockes.
Jackson Hole and Grand Targhee, which did have 2-3 feet of snow over a 2 week period recently, has been drying out again and will be going into another dry pattern.
Overall, I look for above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall in much of the west over the next 7-10 days with a slight chance for some snow coming into the Park City/Snowbird/Alta region early this week and perhaps into Colorado as well. Ski conditions are still awesome in much of Colorado, New Mexico and Utah. Some freeze thawing will begin to affect some of the lower elevations, particularly by the end of this week and first half of next week.
Roemer
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