The theory of time and our daily weather are intricately tied in our minds to a point I’m not sure we fully appreciate. The month of August so far has sort of created this dissonance in my own mind because of the lack of heat and humidity. What it feels like outside this morning makes me think it’s September and this feeling has been going on for the past couple of weeks. I actually have had to consciously remind myself of where we are on the calendar and what things I normally do this time of the year. I start teaching class in a couple of weeks, but it feels like I should already be there.
Personally, I have loved this summer. 4 days of 90 degree weather so far is 8 less than we normally have all year and I am not anxious to make up the deficit. If the summers of the future do hold brutal heat and humidity, this summer has made that prospect even harder to imagine. Last August we did enjoy period in the middle of the month where the temperatures and humidity were very manageable, but that was nothing compared to this month.
Now that August is half over the risk of a protracted heat wave is diminishing each day. This doesn’t mean we won’t hit 90F again or that there won’t be a night when the humidity makes putting the air conditioning on necessary, but if we do, it’s not going to last very long.
Some interesting statistics this month and these are for Boston. We haven’t gone above 85F yet and the last time we did was the 8th. 8 of the first 17 days this month have failed to reach 80F, nearly 50%. The nights have been wonderfully comfortable. Only two nights this month have been 70F or higher. I don’t have dew point statistics, but bases on my own unscientific observations; this has been an unusual month for the lack of higher dew points. The dry air is why the overnight lows have been so comfortable.
This week we find another comfortable week of temperatures and humidity. See image below. There isn’t much, if any rain in the forecast. Our only chance for showers is overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning, but if that occurred it would be quite limited. High temperatures this week will continue in the 70s.
The warmest day and likely best beach day is Wednesday. Cooler air appears to be slated for the area the second half of the week when highs will only be in the low to mid-70s.
The upcoming weekend right now appears to be sunny, pleasant and dry, but more like a weekend you’d expect later in September. All this coolness is likely making you think about what this could mean for winter. Presently, many forecasters are looking at how other cool summers, with a weak El Nino and a cooling Pacific have fared. By analyzing other years with similar global patterns we can get a rough idea of what the winter of 2014-2015 will bring.
Right now, early indications are for a cold and snowy winter as opposed to a warmer and drier winter. Remember, winter is cold and it usually snows just like summer is hot and it’s often humid. How we will have perceived the upcoming winter when it’s over will largely depend on how long cold snaps last, how it’s spread over the December, January, February time period as well as the distribution of snowfall. 50 inches of snow coming in 4 storms 4 weeks apart would be very different than twelve 4 inch storms every Wednesday morning during the commute.
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