As you all know, the weather has been very comfortable with a big lack of humidity this summer. One of the byproducts of this pattern is the ground is drying out easier than it would be if we had more moisture in the air. Think about how long it would take a towel to dry on a humid day as opposed to a dry day with a gentle breeze. Although some areas saw quite a bit of rain about a week ago, it hasn’t rained since and we might be entering a very dry pattern, perhaps the driest of the summer.
Of course trying to predict the amount rain that is going to fall over the next 10 days isn’t easy or necessarily has a high accuracy rate. If a storm came a bit closer than expect during the next week and a half my forecast of dry weather would be a bust. At this point, many of the models agree it’s going to be very dry up to Labor Day weekend. I am also seeing some signs of a bit of heat later this month.
I’ll be updating the forecast regularly on Twitter @growingwisdom. Feel free to send me a question too.
This first map is the latest drought monitor. The next map comes out Thursday and will likely have a similar pattern. Notice the yellow area over extreme southern Maine south through much of Connecticut. This is an area where rain hasn’t been as adequate as I would like. According to the National Weather Service, these areas are not abnormally dry, the level just prior to a moderate drought.
If you have newly planted items in your yard this is when you should be watering them. Check the soil moisture about 4 inches below the surface, this is critical because the damage a lack of water will create often won’t show up until next year.
Any rain in sight?
Some of the model information I can get shows the total amount of rain forecast over a large period of time. Review the map below. In this case we see how much rain is forecast to fall through the 28th of August. Only seeing two-tenths of an inch of rain in this period isn’t much better than seeing nothing. We need about 1-2 inches right now.
These maps tell us nothing about what day the rain will fall, but it’s helpful for water management. If you did shut off your irrigation after the last rainstorm, it’s definitely time to turn it back on.
The next 5 to 7 days looks quite typical for the second half of August or even slightly cooler than average. The map below shows a high temperature forecast for the Thursday before Labor Day weekend. What we see are temperatures above normal and even approaching 90F in some inland areas.
Of course predicting highs this far out isn’t easy, but there has been a trend with the long-range forecasts to warm us up late in August and during the first week of September. I’ve seen this trend now for about 3 weeks. Whether the warm air gets here on the 28th of August or the 1st of September is open to interpretation, but there will likely be a warm period around the time the kids head back to school.
The week ahead does look very nice, whether you are in northern or southern New England on vacation or running around buying school supplies the weather should cooperate fully.
There is still plenty of daylight to enjoy and while I’d love a bit of rain, the dry weather is a bonus for outdoor activities. Have a great day.