Boston could see 1 to 3 inches of snow through Monday morning

It depends how quickly the storm changes into rain.

When I got up this morning, the thermometer read a cold 10 degrees. This is certainly the coldest morning since February and significantly colder than what you’d expect, even in mid-December.

A storm system is on the way to the region for late Sunday night and Monday morning. It’s a mixed bag of precipitation that will bring snow and rain. All areas are going to see some snow with this system, but the snow will quickly change to rain along the coast. This means accumulations will be lower along the coastline and higher inland.

The image below shows the approximate position of the rain-snow line around 6 a.m. Monday:

The approximate position of the rain-snow line around 6 a.m. Monday.
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The National Weather Service issued a winter weather advisory for Sunday night and Monday morning. These advisories are issued when winter weather will significantly impact travel, but there isn’t enough snow or ice to have a warning issued.

If the rain-snow line moved a bit slower than I am expecting, snow totals will end up at the higher end of the scale. A faster change to rain puts totals closer toward the lower end of the scale:

Snow potential between Sunday night and Monday morning

This storm system is moving in from the Ohio Valley. The storm’s track will allow mild air to come in off the ocean and raise temperatures above freezing. As Monday morning progresses, the rain will overtake the snow before the whole storm comes to an end during the early afternoon.

This isn’t a big system, and the impact will likely be disproportionate to the amount of snow because of the timing. There’s no doubt it’s going to be a slower ride to work and school in the morning.

I don’t expect many schools to cancel tomorrow, but there may be some delays and a few cancellations inland. Logan Airport may delay some flights, but there shouldn’t be major problems.

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The weather improves late Monday. Temperatures will fall below freezing Monday night. The good news? The next shot of arctic air holds off until late this week, so you’ll have time to clear the snow.

I’ll be updating the forecast on Twitter @growingwisdom throughout the day and during the storm.

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