Applications soar at public colleges

The new application figures confirm a widely forecast "flight to price" among students. They also follow a sharp increase in fall enrollment in the public system, which consists of 15 community colleges, nine state colleges, and the five University of Massachusetts campuses.

The increase will sharpen competition for spots in this fall's freshman classes, bumping some students who in previous years could have counted on being admitted, college counselors say.

Applications for early admission to UMass-Amherst, the state's flagship campus, rose 29 percent over last year, and applications for regular admission have climbed 23 percent at UMass-Lowell.

Framingham State and Westfield State colleges have seen more than 40 percent increases in applicants from this time a year ago, while the Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts in North Adams has seen a 60 percent jump. Early-action applications at the Massachusetts College of Art and Design in Boston have risen 75 percent.

The surge extends to the state's two-year schools, with applications to Bunker Hill Community College up 25 percent.

A final count on applications by Massachusetts and out-of-state students will not be available for several weeks, and many public schools accept students throughout the spring and summer. But colleges track the number of applications to gauge demand.

With most four-year public colleges unable to handle a significant increase in enrollment, the heightened competition will probably have a ripple effect across the state, college officials and high school guidance counselors say. The shift toward public colleges takes place as small private colleges in Massachusetts, which educate a sizable portion of the state's low- and moderate-income students, grapple with heavy financial losses from stock market declines, jeopardizing their ability to award financial aid.

"You might have a perfect storm where public colleges will be the only place to get your foot in the door, and they don't have enough seats," said Bob Giannino-Racine, executive director of ACCESS, a Boston nonprofit that helps students find ways to afford college. "They've always been a fail-safe, but now they have a real challenge to remain places of access."

Giannino-Racine estimates that wealthier students make up most of the additional applicants at UMass-Amherst, for example, and he worries that opportunities for other applicants will be limited as a result.

Kevin Kelly, admissions director at UMass-Amherst, acknowledged that selectivity has risen hand in hand with applications, which increased by 57 percent between 2003 and 2008. For a university that has sought greater national prominence, the surge in interest provides a strong opportunity to attract higher-caliber students.

At Bridgewater State College, administrators had anticipated a surge in student interest. But they never imagined that 3,000 students, twice as many as last year at this time, would have applied.

"The numbers for next year are just outrageous," said Gregg Meyer, the school's director of admissions. "The economy is definitely having a big impact. We can't take on a larger freshman class, so sadly we're going to have to turn a lot of people away."

In addition to applications for next year's incoming class of 1,500, Bridgewater, which costs about $6,100 a year for commuting students, has seen transfer applications for the spring semester rise 16 percent.

Surveys by education groups, conducted after the recent financial crisis and Wall Street collapse, have found that half of parents are limiting their children's college choices to less expensive options and that more than half are considering in-state, public colleges.

Undergraduates at UMass-Amherst pay $10,200 annually in tuition and fees, while those at UMass-Lowell pay $9,181. UMass-Boston charges $9,100.

By contrast, costs are significantly higher at selective private colleges in the region. Emerson College charges $28,352 for tuition, while Holy Cross charges $36,710. Brandeis University's tuition is $36,122. What families pay, however, varies widely, depending on the college and family income.

At Framingham State College, where applications for the fall and spring have risen to an unprecedented extent, more than one-third came from families making more than $100,000 annually.

"For a public college, that's very surprising," said Nick Figueroa, dean of undergraduate admissions at the college, where annual tuition and fees this year total $6,141. "You tend to see more middle-income families."

Catherine Leger, who heads the guidance department at Brockton High School, said more suburban families are looking at public colleges as financial fallbacks, in case their top choices prove too pricey.

"A lot of Ivy League kids are applying as a backup, and that complicates admissions for the average student," Leger said. "It might push them out" because those students, who typically are stronger applicants, might not have applied to public colleges in the past.

Yet Leger speculated that some students are mainly interested in state colleges as financial backups and will attend more prestigious private schools if they can find a way to pay. She pointed out that most students apply to a range of schools to boost their chances of admission and compare multiple financial aid packages.

In addition, a demographic bulge in the ranks of high school graduates in recent years has led to a sharp increase in applications to all colleges, including such private schools as Northeastern, Boston University, and Boston College.

Many selective private schools, including MIT and Wesleyan University, have reported increased numbers of applicants in fall 2008, suggesting that families are applying to a range of schools so they can compare financial aid awards and final costs. At the same time, some smaller private colleges that rely heavily on tuition fear that their enrollments will suffer during the recession.

The increased interest in lower-priced colleges coincides with cutbacks in state funding for public colleges and the probability of additional cuts next month to balance a large budget shortfall. Earlier this month, state officials estimated that revenues could fall by as much as $749 million because of job losses and declines in capital gains taxes, and many college officials expect 10 percent less in state assistance next academic year.

Peter Schworm can be reached at schworm@globe.com.