Kings vs. Celtics predictions: Can surging Sacramento compete with elite Boston?

This large point spread offers opportunity for bettors

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Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) drives the basket during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Dallas Mavericks, Wednesday, Nov. 23, 2022, in Boston. The Associated Press

Given how hot both teams are, it’s tough to make Kings vs. Celtics predictions. 

After years of mediocrity, the Kings are finally putting it all together. The Kings are 12-5 behind the All-NBA play of De’Aaron Fox and the All-Rookie play of Keegan Murray. 

Can these Kings keep up with the Celtics? Boston has the best offense in the NBA. 

Sacramento has the second-best offense in the NBA, though, and looks prepared to handle this challenge.

This game is set up to be a great one. So, how should bettors attack this matchup? 

Kings vs. Celtics odds

Spread: Kings +7.5 (-110) vs. Celtics -7.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Kings (+240) vs. Celtics (-300)

Total: Over 238.5 (-110) | Under 238.5 (-110)

Kings vs. Celtics prediction

Sacramento Kings +7.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

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These are two very similar teams.

Boston leads the NBA in points per 100 possessions (120) and is second in effective field-goal percentage (58.3%), per Cleaning the Glass. Meanwhile, Sacramento is fourth in points per 100 possessions (117.1) and second in effective field-goal percentage (57.6%). 

Boston has an elite two-way point guar, Marcus Smart, while Sacramento has its elite two-way guard in Fox. Both teams rely heavily on lengthy wings, with Sacramento boasting Murray and Harrison Barnes while Boston rosters Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. 

Moreover, both teams are lackluster defensively. Boston is 20th in points per 100 possessions allowed (112.9), while Sacramento ranks 24th in that metric (114.7). 

I don’t understand why Boston is such a heavy favorite, given both teams are so similar. 

The Celtics have some advantages, as they’re relatively stronger at the rim and are much more experienced. Additionally, home-court advantage is important in this game. 

However, factoring everything together, I still wouldn’t make the Celtics larger than six-point favorites. The Action Network’s PRO Model projects the Celtics as 6.5-point favorites, giving us a slight edge over the current market. 

The Celtics aren’t perfect in this spot, as they’re just 10-8 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite and 5-3 ATS as a home favorite. Meanwhile, the Kings are 8-2 ATS as an underdog and 6-2 ATS as a road underdog. 

Although they’ve won eight of their past 10 games, the Kings appear slightly undervalued by the market. I think this game will be a close, high-scoring affair between sharpshooters. 

I’ll take 7.5 points. 

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