Week 13 in the NFL gets underway with the New England Patriots hosting the Buffalo Bills and we have Bills vs. Patriots predictions.
The last time the two teams met was during the wild-card round last postseason when the Bills handed the Patriots a 47-17 defeat.
At 6-5, New England will need to get something out of this game given that its chance of making the playoffs is down to 38%, according to FiveThirtyEight.
The total for this game opened at 45.5 but has been bet down to 43.5.
And while I think there’s been a slight over-adjustment, I’ve identified two Bills player props that correlate with the move.
Isaiah McKenzie under 32.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
The under here with McKenzie highlights one of my favorite angles: fading secondary wide receivers coming off a big game.
In Week 12, McKenzie racked up 96 receiving yards on six receptions, including a touchdown catch.
It was a season-high for McKenzie in both yardage and targets (10) in a game where quarterback Josh Allen threw the rock 42 times.
But after McKenzie got a chance to eat at the big table for a week, look for Allen to spread the ball around to another wide receiver to ensure they’re also fed.
McKenzie’s previous season high (76) in receiving yards occurred in Week 3; the following week, he finished with 21 yards.
It’s good practice not to get overly attached to wide receivers who are third options in the passing game, so I like McKenzie to go under 32.5 receiving yards.
Josh Allen under 35.5 pass attempts (-114 at FanDuel)
While I don’t necessarily agree with this move to the under, we can still see points here even if Allen attempts fewer than 36 pass attempts.
According to rbsdm.com, the Bills have the league’s highest success rate at 50.2%.
This Bills offense can get down the field in a hurry as they’re tied for second with passing plays of 40 or more yards and second in explosive run plays of 20 or more yards.
The last time the two teams met, Allen needed only 25 pass attempts to throw for 308 yards and five touchdowns.
But this handicap has more to do with Allen’s heavy usage in the passing game last week.
On the previous two occasions where Allen attempted at least 40 pass attempts, he didn’t even clear 30 pass attempts the following week.
Look for the Bills to exercise some caution here with their star quarterback, who is still dealing with an injury to his ulnar collateral ligament (UCL).
Take the under in his passing attempts prop.