Bills vs. Lions predictions: Can Detroit continue hot streak in Thanksgiving Day matchup?

Detroit looks for 4th straight win in battle with Buffalo

Bills vs. Lions predictions
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws a pass to Dawson Knox during the first half of an NFL football game against the New York Jets, Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022, in East Rutherford, N.J. The Associated Press

Our Bills vs. Lions predictions call for a blowout, as Buffalo opened as a double-digit favorite.

However, this game could be more entertaining than we think. 

The Lions have won three straight games. The offense has looked unstoppable with D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown healthy and back in the fold. 

Meanwhile, Buffalo’s lost two of its past three, including a loss to the lowly Jets and a horrendous blown lead against the Vikings. 

So, can Detroit continue this hot streak? Or are the Bills going to bounce back for a second straight win? 

And how should bettors attack this matchup? 

Bills vs. Lions odds

Spread: Bills -9.5 (-110) vs. Lions +9.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Bills (-450) vs. Lions (+350)

Total: Over 54.5 (-110) | Under 54.5 (-110)

Bills vs. Lions prediction

Buffalo Bills -9.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

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The Lions are playing inspired football. They’ve dropped 30 points in consecutive wins over the similarly hot New York Giants and Chicago Bears. 

But it’s probably time for a small letdown game. 

Detroit needed a massive comeback to beat the Bears by one point and are +6 in turnover differential during the win streak. The Lions probably should’ve lost to the Bears and are due for general regression.

The defense is also still struggling. Detroit is 25th in Football Outsiders’ Defense DVOA metric and 30th in Expected Points Added per play allowed. 

Detroit is particularly weak in the secondary, and the Lions have played three run-first team: the Giants, Bears and Green Bay Packers. The Bills will be an entirely different test. 

Buffalo is a top-five passing offense by all metrics. Josh Allen is one of the NFL’s leading passers and is doing so efficiently, while Stefon Diggs is one of the NFL’s leading receivers. 

Those two should carve up Detroit’s secondary. 

Moreover, Buffalo is due for some positive regression. The Bills were -3 in turnover differential in its two losses, dropping both games despite outgaining their opponents in both weeks.

The Bills are still first in Football Outsiders’ overall DVOA metric, too. 

Finally, trends heavily favor the Bills on Thanksgiving. NFL favorites on Thanksgiving are 35-16 against the spread since 2004, and road favorites are 19-5 against the spread during that span, per The Action Network. 

Additionally, the Bills are 2-0 against the spread on Thanksgiving with Allen at quarterback. 

I’d make this line closer to two touchdowns than -9, but I would feel most comfortable playing Buffalo at -10 or better. 

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