Giants vs. Cowboys prediction: Is it too late to back Dallas as heavy favorites?

Division battle on Thanksgiving a tough test for Giants

NFL, Giants, Cowboys, prediction
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush celebrates throwing a touchdown pass with Terence Steele (78), Jason Peters (71), and Tyler Smith (73) in the second half of a NFL football game against the Washington Commanders in Arlington, Texas, Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022. The Associated Press

Fresh off a dominant 40-3 road victory over the Vikings, the Dallas Cowboys return home on a short week to take on the New York Giants.

This will be the second meeting between the two teams as Dallas picked up a 23-16 win in Week 3 behind backup quarterback Cooper Rush.

The victory was one of four where Rush filled in for starting quarterback Dak Prescott. And with Prescott now back in the saddle, the Cowboys offense looks even more potent.

We’ll break down this Thanksgiving Day matchup and examine whether the Giants can slow down this Cowboys attack.

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Giants vs. Cowboys odds

Spread: NYG +9.5 (-110) vs. DAL -9.5 (-110)

Moneyline: NYG (+310) vs. DAL (-400)

Total: Over 45.5 (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110)

Giants vs. Cowboys pick

Lean Cowboys -9.5

Giants vs. Cowboys analysis

I went back and looked at the Cowboys’ schedule, and one thing that stood out to me about their Week 3 victory is that it was one of only two Dallas wins by a margin of fewer than 10 points.

Thus, when you think about the Cowboys’ 37-point shellacking over the Vikings, it’s evident that this is an offense that can score in bunches.

After Sunday’s performance, I’m not surprised that Dallas was bet up to 9.5 after opening as a seven-point favorite.

Moreover, Dallas has won nine of the past 10 meetings against the Giants, and they also boast an 8-2 run against the spread.

New York must keep the Dallas offense off the field to have a chance in this game. That’ll require staying ahead of the chains on first down, which they’ve struggled with this season despite their 7-3 mark.

According to rbsdm.com, New York ranks 24th (37.2%) in success rate on first down. Thus, given their favorable record, you can understand why the Giants sat atop our Action Network Luck Rankings entering Week 11.

If the Giants can’t stay on schedule, they’ll have some heavy lifting on third down. However, that scenario is more likely to favor the Cowboys, as they’ll fancy their chances with their pass rush.

According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Cowboys have the league’s highest pressure rate at 30.2%.

When you put it all together, this matchup does set up nicely for the Cowboys. Our Action Network database shows that Dallas has been pretty reliable as a favorite in this point spread range.

Since November 2014, the Cowboys went 14-7-1 for 6.58 units when facing an opening spread of seven or more points as a favorite.

However, I can’t justify laying 9.5 points now when there was a better number available earlier on.

Thus, while I lean toward the Cowboys, they’re unlikely to make my final card at the current price.

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