The Boston Bruins finally dropped a game Saturday evening after winning six straight. Boston now hosts the struggling St. Louis Blues, who have lost five straight games.
As a result, the Bruins are heavy favorites on Monday, reaching as high as -200 on the moneyline.
The Bruins are playing better hockey but may be overvalued from a betting perspective.
Is it worth buying the Blues at this great price? Or is the value still with the Bruins on their hot streak?
Blues vs. Bruins NHL odds
Moneyline: STL (+155) vs. BOS (-190)
Spread: STL +1.5 (-155) vs. BOS -1.5 (+125)
Total: Over 6 (-120) | Under 6 (+100)
Blues vs. Bruins NHL prediction
Boston Bruins ML (-190) at BetMGM Sportsbook
Boston has a legit, all-around hockey team.
Linus Ullmark is playing like one of the best goalies in the NHL, recently out-dueling superstar Igor Shesterkin in a game with the Rangers last week. He’s allowed just 20 goals in 10 starts, ranking eighth in the league in save percentage at .929 (minimum five starts).
Meanwhile, Boston boasts a top-five defense via Expected Goals Allowed, per MoneyPuck. Moreover, the Bruins have been the best penalty kill unit in the NHL, allowing just three goals over 71 penalty minutes.
But, surprisingly, Boston’s offense has been its best overall unit. The Bruins became the first team to 50 goals over the weekend. David Pastrnak leads the way with 19 points, but Boston has 12 different skaters who have registered five points.
The Bruins will overwhelm you on offense and circle you on defense. But, if you manage the Bruins in even strength and man-up or man-down situations, you still have to sneak goals by Ullmark.
The Bruins are overvalued, given they’re due for some regression from this hot streak. However, I don’t think this is the time to fade them.
St. Louis has put together the worst hockey team in the NHL, specifically on the offensive end. The Blues have scored 31 goals in nine games this season. And it hasn’t been bad luck, given they are second-to-last in Expected Goals For, per MoneyPuck.
Defensively, the Blues are league-average. But they have been crushed recently, having allowed at least five goals in four straight games. In addition, the streaky Jordan Binnington is running cold, having recorded a lackluster .792 save percentage over his past three starts.
Usually, I wouldn’t recommend betting on such a big moneyline favorite. However, the two NHL prediction models I trust show value on Boston today, with The Action Network projecting the Bruins at -275 favorites and MoneyPuck projecting them as -225 favorites.
The time to fade Boston is coming, but Monday night is not that time. I’ll bet the Bruins moneyline at any price better than -200.