Flyers vs. Bruins prediction: time to risk a bet on Boston at such big odds?

Bruins heavy favorites, but there's a profitable play here

Flyers vs. Bruins predictions
Boston Bruins' Taylor Hall (71) celebrates his goal with David Pastrnak (88), David Krejci (46) and Patrice Bergeron (37) during overtime of an NHL hockey game against the Minnesota Wild, Saturday, Oct. 22, 2022, in Boston. The Associated Press

Our Flyers vs. Bruins prediction calls for a blowout, and we should probably bet appropriately. 

The Philadelphia Flyers look like a minor-league hockey team, having lost four straight games by a combined score of 19-8. That most recent game is an egregious loss to the last-place Columbus Blue Jackets. 

Meanwhile, the Boston Bruins are a wagon. They’ve won four straight by a combined score of 14-5. 

The Bruins are still atop the Eastern Conference standings. 

However, is this Bruins run sustainable? And are the Flyers going to continue dropping games? 

This could be a buy-low, sell-high type of betting game. 

Let’s investigate. Read on for the betting odds and my prediction for Thursday night’s Flyers vs. Bruins game. 

Flyers vs. Bruins odds

Moneyline: Flyers (+235) vs. Bruins (-295)

Spread: Flyers +1.5 (-104) vs. Bruins -1.5 (-115)

Total: Over 6.5 (-106) | Under 6.5 (-114) 

Flyers vs. Bruins prediction: 

Boston Bruins -1.5 (-115) at FanDuel Sportsbook

I don’t see how Philadelphia competes in this game. 

The Flyers have the third-lowest Expected Goal Differential in five-on-five situations (-8.04), per Money puck. They also have the second-worst shot differential in hockey (-75), just ahead of the Columbus Blue Jackets, per Quant Hockey. 

This is before we mention power play and penalty kill situations. 

The Bruins are the best penalty kill unit in the league, having killed 91.8% of opposing power play opportunities. They are slightly worse from a man-up standpoint, but are still a top-10 team in terms of power play percentage (25.4%). 

The Flyers are a bottom-10 team in both power play goal and penalty kill percentage. 

Essentially, the Bruins can beat the Flyers in every possible scenario. 

Philadelphia goalie Carter Hart has been superb, as he leads the league in Goals Saved Above Expected, per Money Puck. 

However, his heroic numbers have been propped up by a lackadaisical defense that relies on him too much. The Flyers rank fifth-to-last in Expected Goals Against, per Money Puck. 

I feel David Pastrnak won’t have an issue carving up the Philly defense or burying goals on Hart. He’s buried nine goals and recorded 25 points through only 16 games this season. 

Moreover, Boston goalie Linus Ullmark has been remarkable during the early season. Hart may lead the league in Goals Saved Above Expected, but Ullmark is seventh and has posted an identical save percentage on unblocked shots, per Money Puck. 

Ullmark has the stuff to stand up to Hart’s advanced metrics. 

In the end, the Flyers are fourth to last in Expected Goal Differential, but the Bruins are fourth. The Flyers have three 10-point scorers, but the Bruins have five. And the Flyers have a top-tier goalie, but so do the Bruins.

I’m backing the Bruins to dominate in this matchup, and I will happily play them on the puck line at -130 or better. 

It will be worth buying low on the Flyers soon, but Thursday night is not the time.

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Vegas Insider

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