In advance of the final English Premier League fixture of Matchday 21, we’re set to provide our Fulham vs. Tottenham prediction.
In terms of recent results, these sides could not be going in more different directions. Tottenham has dropped points in all but one of their past five matches, including a 4-2 defeat Thursday against Manchester City.
Meanwhile, Fulham has earned all three points in four of their past five games, but dropped all three last time out against Newcastle United.
- Get the latest news on Massachusetts Sports Betting
But, it’s Tottenham (+110) that finds itself as a road favorite Thursday with Fulham sitting at +220 to bag another three points at home. The draw is +275 with the total set at 2.5 goals, juiced -160 to the over.
- Check out our review of the Best Sports Betting Sites for 2023
- Don’t miss out on this BetMGM Welcome Offer for January 2023
Fulham vs. Tottenham Prediction + Best Bet
Tottenham Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-115)
The results haven’t gone Tottenham’s way recently, but their offense has steadily improved following the return of key players.
Both Dejan Kulusevski and Richarlison find themselves at full health for manager Antonio Conte and can offer critical support to the strike partnership of Harry Kane and Heung Min-Son.
Over their past five games, Tottenham has cleared this benchmark three times, including against a powerful Manchester City defense on Thursday. Over that same span, Spurs have generated 1.48 expected goals on target (xGOT) per 90 minutes, according to fotmob.com.
However, this Fulham defense is among the worst in the Premier League and will represent the worst defense Spurs have faced since returning from the World Cup.
Throw out a match against Crystal Palace in which the Eagles had two men sent off, and bettors will find Fulham is allowing 1.83 xGOT per 90 minutes.
What’s more is that Fulham’s defense arrives at this match a HUGE negative regression candidate on the defensive end. Even if you include that match against Palace, bettors will find Fulham has conceded 29 goals this season against almost 35 xGOT.
Plus, in eight matches this season against the Big Six and Newcastle United, Fulham has allowed 19.18 xGOT, or 2.4 xGOT per 90 minutes. However, they’ve conceded only 16 goals against that underlying total.
Even in the four home games within that sample, Fulham has conceded nine goals against 11.92 xGOT, or 2.98 xGOT per 90.
Finally, in a reverse fixture against Tottenham earlier this season, the Cottagers allowed 2.22 xGOT and three big scoring chances while allowing Tottenham to score twice.
Given there’s virtually no difference between Fulham’s home and road splits on the defensive end, I’ll place trust in a Spurs offense that has cleared this benchmark all but one time against the current bottom-10 in expected goal differential.
Back Tottenham so long as they remain available at -130 or better.