Newsletter Signup
Stay up to date on all the latest news from Boston.com
As the holiday season and new year approaches, it seems that the worst of COVID-19 will not be left behind in 2021, according to wastewater coronavirus tracking in Boston. Recent wastewater data shows a surge in cases similar to levels seen in last year’s winter peak.
Jacob Bor, an assistant professor in the Departments of Global Health and Epidemiology at Boston University, is warning that in order to stop the rise in infections without widespread closures and lockdowns, COVID-19 surges should be treated like ‘severe weather’ events. He took to Twitter on Saturday to explain the similarities between COVID-19 case surges and severe weather events.
“We need to start thinking about COVID surges like ‘severe weather’ events,” Bor said. “You can’t prevent a blizzard or a hurricane, but you can limit its damage if people know it’s coming.”
Unlike during the surge seen last winter, Massachusetts now has a relatively high vaccination rate of 72% and Boston continues to have its indoor mask mandate, which was reinstated in August. However, the new virus variant, omicron, which scientists believe may be twice as contagious as the delta variant, was detected in Massachusetts on Sunday, even as delta continues drive rising cases.
The current surge comes after a dip in cases over Thanksgiving this year. Trends in 2020 showed that cases dropped before Thanksgiving and Christmas before significantly increasing, a trend which will occur again this year according to health professionals.
Similar to severe weather preparations, Bor says it is important for people to take safety measures during a COVID-19 surge to protect themselves.
That means getting vaccinated or getting the booster shot, wearing a mask indoors even in areas without a mask mandate, and reducing the amount of unmasked gatherings indoors with non-household members, he said.
However, COVID-19 surges are generally harder for the general public to observe compared to severe weather, according to Bor.
That is where authority figures and officials come into play, he said.
“We need CLEAR COMMUNICATION from our policy makers that we are in the midst of a major COVID surge so people/institutions can take necessary precautions,” Bor wrote.
The professor outlined several steps Gov. Charlie Baker could take that would indicate the severity of the current surge, such as giving recommendations on indoor gatherings, implementing a mask mandate for the entire state of Massachusetts, holding a mass vaccination drive in communities that have low vaccination rates, scaling up rapid tests, and publicizing the state’s paid sick leave policy and worker protections.
“Surges will continue to happen,” Bor wrote. “While we can’t prevent them entirely, we can adopt behaviors during surges to limit their impact as well as policies to protect the most vulnerable.”
**COVID-19 Severe Weather Alert**
— Jacob Bor (@JacobBor) December 4, 2021
1) Remember last year's winter surge? There's now as much COVID-19 in the Boston area today as there was at last winter's peak. And it's only December. https://t.co/J9Gb4XrCdt pic.twitter.com/3Xlp2FH9Ng
3) The virus has mutated to become more infectious (delta, omicron), and it is unlikely we will stop the spread without widespread closures / lockdown. However, there is little appetite for such measures, which have negative impacts in their own right.
— Jacob Bor (@JacobBor) December 4, 2021
5) First, get vaxxed and boosted. People who are vaxxed and boosted will (mostly) be OK during this winter surge. People who are not vaxxed/boosted are at significant risk for bad outcomes.
— Jacob Bor (@JacobBor) December 4, 2021
7) Third, reduce indoor unmasked gatherings with non-household members. The current spike corresponds with Thanksgiving and we can expect another spike at Christmas (based on the pattern we saw last year). An 8-person indoor gathering is far less risky than a 20-person gathering.
— Jacob Bor (@JacobBor) December 4, 2021
9) We do the same thing for the weather: we drive slower when it's raining, pack an umbrella, and hunker down during a major storm.
— Jacob Bor (@JacobBor) December 4, 2021
COVID has become what economists call an "umbrella problem".
11) We need CLEAR COMMUNICATION from our policy makers that we are in the midst of a major COVID surge so people/institutions can take necessary precautions.
— Jacob Bor (@JacobBor) December 4, 2021
Gov. Baker can signal the severity of the current surge and limit its impacts, without lockdowns, via:
**COVID Severe Weather Alert** END
— Jacob Bor (@JacobBor) December 4, 2021
Stay up to date on all the latest news from Boston.com
Stay up to date with everything Boston. Receive the latest news and breaking updates, straight from our newsroom to your inbox.
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com