A new poll puts Charlie Baker and Elizabeth Warren ahead by large margins in the November election

The Suffolk University and Boston Globe poll released Wednesday also shows most voters see Baker as "anti-Trump."

U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Gov. Charlie Baker
U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Gov. Charlie Baker –Michael Swensen for The Boston Globe/AP file

A new poll released Wednesday shows Massachusetts incumbents Republican Gov. Charlie Baker and Democratic U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren have strong advantages ahead of the Nov. 6 election, with both polling ahead of their contenders by sizable, double-digit margins.

Of the 500 likely midterm voters surveyed this month for the Suffolk University and Boston Globe poll, 55 percent favored Baker over his Democratic challenger Jay Gonzalez, who polled at 28 percent, a press release said.

Gonzalez, a former state secretary of administration and finance, also faces tough competition from Baker within his own party, the latest poll shows.

The Republican governor — who polled well across the aisle in a June poll — scooped up support from 40 percent of Democrats surveyed, placing him one point behind Gonzalez.


Warren, polling at 54 percent, leads both Republican candidate Geoff Diehl, a state representative from Whitman who garnered 24 percent in the poll, and independent candidate Shiva Ayyadurai, a Belmont scientist and entrepreneur who polled at 6 percent, according to results.

In the Senate race, 16 percent of voters were undecided.

“Both Charlie Baker and Elizabeth Warren are entertaining landslide scenarios, even though they follow different paths,” David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said in a statement. “Warren’s rock-solid Democratic base offsets losses among Republicans, and she stays competitive among independents. Baker is competitive among Democrats and dominates among independents and Republicans.”

The latest poll was conducted by the university through phone interviews between Sept. 13 and 17 and has a +/- 4.4 percent margin of error, according to organizers.

Baker leads Gonzalez by a 27-point margin

The gap between Baker and Gonzalez has slightly narrowed since a pre-primary election poll in June, which had the Republican incumbent over Gonzalez by 30 points.

This month’s poll had Gonzalez trailing Baker by 27 points.

The latest survey also once again reaffirmed Baker’s strong likability among voters, placing the country’s most popular governor at a 72 percent job approval rating and a 73 percent favorability rating.

Among Bay State voters, most saw Baker as “anti-Trump,” with 61 percent agreeing with the categorization and 12 percent viewing him as “pro-Trump,” the release said. Eleven percent of voters responded with “neither,” and 16 percent of voters surveyed were undecided when asked.


Seventy-two percent of Republicans also sided with Baker, who garnered 62 percent of independent voters polled.

Nearly 17 percent of all voters said they were undecided on which candidate they would support in the gubernatorial election.

Democrats heavily favor Warren, who only 5 percent of Republicans voters surveyed said they support

Warren, who received both job approval and favorable ratings at 57 percent, received support from 84 percent of Democrats surveyed, but tied with Ayyadurai for support among Republicans surveyed at 5 percent, according to the poll.

Seventy-seven percent of Republicans favored Diehl, who polled at 2 percent among Democrats. Ayyadurai polled at 3 percent among Democrats.

Warren held an advantage among independent voters surveyed for the poll, with 44 percent supporting the incumbent, 28 percent supporting Diehl, and 8 percent supporting Ayyaduari, although a notable 20 percent said they are undecided.

Questions on the ballot

Fifty-two percent of voters said they supported establishing limits on the number of patients a nurse can be assigned at a given time — a measure that would be created if Question 1 passes on the ballot, according to the poll. In contrast, 33 percent were opposed with 15 percent undecided.

For Question 2, which would create a citizen commission to work to create an amendment to the U.S. Constitution to overturn the controversial Citizens United v. FEC Supreme Court ruling and regulate campaign spending, 72 percent of voters said they support the effort, opposed to 20 percent against it, according to the poll.

And for Question 3, 73 percent of voters support retaining a state law that bans discrimination against transgender people in places such as malls, restaurants, and restrooms, while 17 percent are against keeping it and 9 percent are undecided, the poll shows. The referendum actually proposes repealing the law, although state officials have said a “yes” vote on the measure this November would be in support of keeping it.


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