Red Sox

Who are these Red Sox pitchers most similar to?

Among the comparable pitchers for Chris Sale at age 27 is Johan Santana. Associated Press/Getty Images

March 22, 2017

COMMENTARY

On Tuesday, we poked around on baseball-reference.com to find the most statistically similar players to 2017 Red Sox batters at their current ages. Not that we didn’t already see Mookie Betts as a Duke Snider clone, of course.

Today, we hit the pitchers and their comps. If you can’t guess which current Sox pitcher is very similar to the talented, relentlessly exasperating Daisuke Matsuzaka, we’ve got the answer, among more satisfying comps, for you here …

RICK PORCELLO

Comps through age 27: Alex Fernandez, Jon Garland, Mark Buehrle

That Garland comp would have been absolutely perfect for Porcello – before the Red Sox’ Opening Day starter’s Cy Young-award breakout last year. Garland always struck me as a league-average workhorse, sort of a conventional Tim Wakefield, and his 103 adjusted ERA for his career confirms as much. Porcello is a better pitcher now than Garland ever was, save for the very specific moment of Game 3 of the 2005 ALCS, but Garland pitched 13 years in the big leagues and made $52 million, so it’s not like it was a regrettable life.

CHRIS SALE

Comps through age 27: Cole Hamels, Johan Santana, John Smiley

Smiley, who won 126 games in 12 seasons, is moderate surprise, but he did go 20-8 with a 3.08 ERA for the 1991 Pirates. He wasn’t nearly on Sale’s level as a strikeout pitcher, though. Other interesting names on Sale’s list include Tim Lincecum, Stephen Strasberg, and Sid Fernandez. If you’re wondering about Clayton Kershaw, his top three comps through the same age were Tom Seaver, Pedro Martinez, and Roger Clemens. So, yeah, we should probably resist any further temptation to call Sale the Kershaw of the American League.

DAVID PRICE

Comps through age 30: Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, Jered Weaver

This list is actually more encouraging beyond the top three. Jon Lester, a.k.a. He Who Should Have Been Signed In The First Place, is fourth. Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Cole Hamels, and personal favorite John Candelaria also are in his top 10. And yes, I’m mentioning all of them to avoid talking about that No. 1 comp, Santana, which should make Red Sox fans shudder given that he won 17 games after turning 31.

EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ

Comps through age 23: Brian Matusz, Bob Sykes, Martin Perez

“The truth is that you don’t know what is going to happen tomorrow. Life is a crazy ride and nothing is guaranteed.” Shakespeare? Mark Twain? Skip Bayless? Nope. Eminem. Found it on brainyquotes.com. This is an eclectic trio. There are no aces (and no Mekhi Phifer …. sorry) here, just three once-promising pitchers with abbreviated moments of success. Matusz was Baseball America’s No. 5 prospect in 2005. He had an 18.00 ERA in one game for the Cubs last year. Perez finished sixth in the 2013 AL Rookie of the Year race, blew out his elbow the next year, and had a 4.39 ERA for the Rangers in 33 starts last year. Sykes is best known for being traded from the Cardinals to the Yankees for obscure minor-leaguer Willie McGee. All any of this tells us is that there’s still plenty to be revealed about E-Rod’s career arc. Eminem said it better, I guess.

STEVEN WRIGHT

Comps through age 31: Spud Chandler, Dazzy Vance, Harry Chandler

Don’t tell John Farrell, but Herb Washington is not among his top 10. Wright’s top three do not include anyone who has thrown a pitch in a major-league game in the last 65 years. Somehow that does not seem odd given the knuckleballer’s unusual career trajectory. But there’s only one pitcher we’ll actually compare him to: Tim Wakefield, of course. Knuckleballers are their own weird phylum.

DREW POMERANZ

Comps through age 27: Butch Henry, Tyson Ross, Brent Strom

Strom’s claim to very minor fame is that he was the second pitcher to undergo ulnar ligament replacement surgery in his pitching elbow. For some reason, Brent Strom surgery doesn’t have the same ring to it that Tommy John surgery does, perhaps because he ended his career with 266 fewer wins than John. But seeing him show up on Pomeranz’s comp list seems fitting given that he was a damaged-goods pitcher for the Padres.

KYLE KENDRICK

Comps through age 30: Todd Stottlemyre, Estaban Loaiza, Phil Hughes

That’s better than I expected, actually. Stottlemyre won at least 14 games five times, and Loaiza and Hughes both won 20 in a season. Kendrick has had a decent spring, but isn’t it somewhat alarming that a pitcher who led the National League in runs and homers allowed in 2015 and had a 4.72 ERA in Triple A last season might have a role with this team greater than being Sean O’Sullivan, The Sequel?

CRAIG KIMBREL

Comps through age 28: Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, Francisco Rodriguez

Logical list. All three of these late-inning strikeout machines leave you nodding your head in agreement. And Jonathan Papelbon is fourth.

TYLER THORNBERG

Comps through age 27: Todd Jones, Brad Lidge, TJ Mathews

Seems more like Carson Smith to me, unless T.J. Mathews’s initials stand for Tommy John. Was that too cynical? That was too cynical.

MATT BARNES

Comps through age 26: Roberto Novoa, Daniel Webb, Mark Brandenburg

Brandenburg, a Frisbee-chucking righty who had a 4.80 ERA in 60 appearances for the 1996-97 Red Sox, couldn’t be more dissimilar stylistically than Barnes, who throws everything hard and, too often, straight.

ROBBY ROSS JR.

Comps through age 27: Steve Kline, Pat Clements, Greg Caderet

All situational/middle relief lefties who were just good enough that you could live with them until you stumbled into someone better. Sounds like Ross to me.

JOE KELLY

Comps through age 28: George Pipgras, Shaun Marcum, Daisuke Matsuzaka

That Dice-K comp is gold. Both belong on a list of the most exasperating Red Sox pitchers of the 21st century – heck, they might be 1-2. Kelly has a better gyroball, though.

HEATH HEMBREE

Comps through age 27: Not enough data available.

If you really need a comp, he kind of looks like the middle brother between John Lackey and a never-do-well who grew up to be a Nickelback roadie.

FERNANDO ABAD

Comps through age 30: Graeme Lloyd, Cesar Ramos, Matt Reynolds.

I’d trade him for Graeme Lloyd now, and he turns 50 next month.

Part 1: Red Sox lineup comparables