The Oklahoma City Thunder have the pick directly ahead of the Celtics in next weeks draft, and the Oklahoman’s John Rohde did some number-crunching on the success rate of late-round picks. Danny Ainge already made a similar point on the Celtics Twitter page, perhaps tempering expectations about the impact of the selection the team makes with the 25th pick next week.
Ainge says team has run numbers on low first rounders: “Historically, the odds of a #25 draft pick breaking into a rotation is like 6%.”
From the Oklahoman:
Since the 2000 draft, 61 of 204 players (29.9 percent) selected between Nos. 10-30 no longer are in the NBA.
Of players drafted between Nos. 20-30 in the last decade, 61.1 percent were traded before their fourth season; 54.4 percent averaged less than 1,500 minutes (18.3 per game); 20.2 percent started 70 games during one of their first four seasons; and 6.7 percent made an All-Star team.
A handful of solid players have been taken with the 24th pick in the first round. Brian Shaw, Latrell Sprewell, Sam Cassell, Derek Fisher and Andrei Kirilenko come to mind.
Of the six players taken by the Celtics in the past three drafts, none played more than 40 games in green. Semih Erden, the Celtics’ second-round pick in 2008, played 37 games last season before being traded to Cleveland with Luke Harangody, the team’s second round pick in 2010. Avery Bradley (first round, 2010), Lester Hudson (second round, 2009), J.R. Giddens (first round, 2008), and Bill Walker (second round, 2008) all spent stints in the D-League. Giddens and Walker were both traded to New York in 2010. Walker is still there. Giddens played in Poland last season. Hudson caught on with Washington briefly this past season before being waived in January and signing with a team in China.