Before the season started, only the most optimistic No. 25-jersey-wearing fans figured Barry Bonds would have a chance to break Hank Aaron’s all-time home run record by the middle of June. After all, the 42-year-old Bonds needed 22 homers to break the mark (755) and was coming off an injury plagued season in which he hit just 26 homers in 130 games.
But Bonds has started the season on a tear, bashing seven homers in his first 17 games. He’s currently on pace to hit 67 dingers for the season. While that certainly isn’t realistic, it’s becoming more and more likely that he’ll tie and pass Aaron’s mark sometime before the All-Star break, perhaps as early as June 15-17, the dates the Giants will visit Fenway Park for a three-game series.
The Metrowest Daily News’s Lenny Megliola writes about this possibility today, imagining the reaction of the Fenway Faithful should the controversial Bonds tie or break Aaron’s hallowed mark in Boston. How realistic is that possibility? Check out these numbers, and decide for yourself whether you want to scramble to find a bleacher seat for any of those games.
Beyond the numbers, you have to think Bonds would cringe at the thought of breaking the home run mark in Boston, a city he told the Globe’s Gordon Edes three years ago was “too racist for me.”
How will that play into the probability? That’s something no match equation can answer. Nevertheless, it’s no longer a long shot to think Bonds could tie or break Aaron’s homer mark at Fenway Park.