Patriots

What oddsmakers are saying about the 2021 Patriots

From winning Super Bowl LVI to Jimmy Garoppolo taking the reins as starting QB.

By Conor Roche

February 10, 2021

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After a 7-9 season, sportsbooks are expecting the Patriots to have another middle-of-the-road season.

Opening odds to win the 2022 Super Bowl are out, and the Patriots are tied with the Cardinals and Vikings for the 17th-best odds to win Super Bowl LVI at +4000, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The Chiefs hold the best odds to win at +550 while Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are tied for second with the Packers at +900.

The Patriots’ opening odds are worse than they’ve been in some time. Even with Brady’s looming free agency, the Patriots were given 12/1 odds to win Super Bowl LV in February 2020.

The Patriots have the 10th-best odds to win the AFC at +1800, according to DraftKings. The Chiefs have the best odds at +250 while the Patriots’ division rivals, the Bills(+600) and Dolphins (+1200), have the third and sixth-best odds to win the conference.

Of course, there are several reasons why the Patriots’ middle-of-the-road odds make sense. The team has no clear starting quarterback option for next season and was marred by QB inconsistency throughout the 2020 season. Jarrett Stidham is the clear favorite to be the Patriots’ starting quarterback next season, according to Sports Betting Dime. Stidham has -220 odds to be New England’s starting quarterback in Week 1 while the Patriots’ 2020 starting quarterback, Cam Newton, has the fifth-best odds at +800 to be the opening week starter.

In between Stidham and Newton are Sam Darnold (+600), Jimmy Garoppolo (+650), and Carson Wentz (+700). Darnold and Garoppolo have only been speculated to be moved while it’s been reported that the Eagles are expected to trade Wentz soon.

The Patriots still have other issues outside of quarterback. Their receiving corps was unimpressive in 2020 with only two wide receivers catching more than 40 passes, and their defense ranked 26th in DVOA. The Patriots also have some key players who will be free agents in Joe Thuney, David Andrews, James White, J.C. Jackson, and Lawrence Guy, leaving more question marks on how successful they’ll be next season.

There are a couple of things that are in the Patriots’ favor this offseason. They hold the 15th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, their highest draft pick since 2008. New England is also projected to have $58.5 million in cap space, which is the fourth-most in the league. If the Patriots capitalize on those opportunities, their odds to win the Super Bowl and AFC titles can improve.