Patriots

Here’s what oddsmakers think of Patriots’ chances in AFC East after Aaron Rodgers’ plan to join Jets

Rodgers joining a promising Jets core could spell bad news for the Patriots in the AFC East.

By Conor Ryan

March 15, 2023

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The Patriots’ road back to the top of the AFC East became even more arduous on Wednesday afternoon.

Already the punching bag of Josh Allen and the Bills, the Patriots might have to battle against a four-time MVP twice next season.

Aaron Rodgers announced Wednesday that he plans to join the Jets for the 2023 season, even though a deal between New York and Green Bay has yet to be struck.

And even though Rodgers’ arrival in New York does not guarantee the Jets’ first playoff berth since 2010, the oddsmakers are apparently buying into a resurgent season for Gang Green.

That’s bad news for the Patriots, based on the latest projected division odds in the AFC East.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Rodgers’ expected move east has the Jets tabbed with the second-best odds to win the division at +230. 

Here are the current numbers from FanDuel:

AFC East Winner 2023-24

Buffalo Bills +125
New York Jets +230
Miami Dolphins +370
New England Patriots +700

That’s a poor reflection on the Patriots, who finished just a win above the Jets in the division last season.

The numbers become even more lopsided when assessing the odds of New England capturing a conference title against a crowded field of contenders.

AFC Championship Winner

Kansas City Chiefs +350
Buffalo Bills +450
Cincinnati Bengals +500
New York Jets +750
Los Angeles Chargers +1300
Baltimore Ravens +1300
Miami Dolphins +1400
Jacksonville Jaguars +1500
Cleveland Browns +2000
Denver Broncos +2500
Pittsburgh Steelers +3000
Las Vegas Raiders +3000
New England Patriots +3100
Tennessee Titans +5000
Indianapolis Colts +8500
Houston Texans +10000

Not great for New England.

Of course, the Patriots still have plenty of time to bolster their roster between now and the start of training camp.

But skill-wise, the Patriots might still be situated near the bottom of the division in terms of the big-play capability of their roster.

That’s not just an indictment on New England, but a testament to the arms race that the rest of the AFC East has been embroiled in over the last few years.

Rodgers, even at 39, is a seismic upgrade from the likes of Zach Wilson or Mike White.

But even before Rodgers announced his plan to play for New York, the Jets were already on the upswing thanks to a young core of talent headlined by the reigning NFL Rookies of the Year in Garrett Wilson (Offensive) and Sauce Gardner (Defensive).

Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion woes are a legitimate concern down in Miami. But if healthy, the former Alabama signal caller should torment defenses with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as targets.

The Dolphins are also loading up on defense. Dealing for six-time Pro Bowler Jalen Ramsey will steal plenty of headlines, but new DC Vic Fangio has plenty more to work with.

Ramsey will join a talented secondary next to Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland, while pass rusher Bradley Chubb should benefit from a full season down in Florida.

And so long as Josh Allen is under center, the Bills are going to be a tough out against the Patriots.

Odds can change in short order, especially if New England goes out and adds another weapon or two for Mac Jones in the coming days.

But right now, it looks like the Patriots have a long way to go in their goal of regaining relevancy in a cutthroat AFC.