Tom Brady is back in the Super Bowl.
The six-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback has led the Buccaneers to football’s grandest stage in his first season there, taking on the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV. While the Buccaneers have home-field advantage, the Chiefs are actually 3-point favorites to win on Sunday.
Sportsbooks are also more bullish on Brady’s counterpart, Patrick Mahomes, giving him the edge over Brady in head-to-head prop bets. Still, sportsbooks expect Brady to put up a solid passing performance.
Here are the Tom Brady prop bets for Super Bowl LV via DraftKings Sportsbook:
Outcome of Brady’s first pass attempt: Complete (-190), Incomplete (+150). Brady’s completed his first pass attempt in three of his last four games, according to CBS Sports.
Brady’s completion percentage: Over/under 62.5 percent. Brady’s completion percentage during the regular season was 65.7 percent. In the Buccaneers’ regular-season matchup against the Chiefs, Brady completed 65.9 percent of his passes. However, Brady’s completion percentage has taken a dip during the playoffs. He’s completed just 55 percent of his passes in three playoff games.
Player to have the most passing yards: Brady +120, Patrick Mahomes -150. Mahomes has the edge over Brady in passing yards per game in the regular season (316 yards to Brady’s 289.6 yards) and in the playoffs (290 yards to Brady’s 286.7 yards). Mahomes’s passing yards average in the playoffs is also weighed down from the fact that he departed the Chiefs’ Divisional Round game against the Browns early due to injury.
Player to complete the most passes: Brady +133, Mahomes -167. Mahomes has the edge here again as he completed 26 passes per game to Brady’s 25.1 passes per game in the regular season. In the postseason, Mahomes has completed 25 passes per game to Brady’s 20.
Tom Brady touchdown scores: At least two touchdowns +5000, at least three touchdowns +50000. These are longshot bets because this is only for rushing and receiving touchdowns. Brady’s only rushed for multiple touchdowns in a game three times over his 21-year career, last doing it in 2019 in a Patriots win over the Giants.
Player to throw the most touchdowns: Brady +145, Mahomes -182. Mahomes has the edge over Brady yet again. Mahomes’s passing touchdowns per game average (2.53) was slightly higher than Brady’s (2.5) in the regular season. Brady actually has a slight edge in the playoffs (2.3 passing TDs per game to Mahomes’ two), but as we noted earlier, Mahomes missed a good chunk of time in the Chiefs’ win over the Browns.
Tom Brady to score a touchdown and the Buccaneers win: +1050
Tom Brady to score the first touchdown and the Buccaneers win: +6600. It should be noted again that the touchdown scoring in these two bets pertains to rushing and receiving touchdowns only. Over 19 regular season and playoff games this season, Brady’s rushed for four touchdowns. The Buccaneers have won three of the four games Brady’s rushed for a touchdown in.
Total interceptions thrown by Tom Brady: Over 0.5 (-155), Under 0.5 (+124). In the Buccaneers’ 19 games this season, Brady’s thrown an interception in eight of them. One of those games was the Buccaneers’ loss to the Chiefs, in which Brady threw two picks. Brady threw three interceptions in the NFC Championship Game against the Packers.
Tom Brady’s total pass attempts: Over 39.5 (-112), Under 39.5 (-112). This is nearly in-line with Brady’s regular-season average of 38.1 pass attempts per game. Brady’s averaging 36.3 pass attempts per game over the postseason.
Tom Brady’s total completions: Over 24.5 (-112), Under 24.5 (-112). This is again in-line with Brady’s regular-season average of 25.1 completions per game. However, Brady hasn’t completed more than 22 passes in any of the Buccaneers’ three playoff games.
Tom Brady’s total passing yards: Over 295.5 (-112), Under 295.5 (-112). Brady’s passing yards per game in the regular season (289.6 yards) and the postseason (287.6 yards) are slightly less than this. However, Brady threw for 345 yards in the Buccaneers’ loss to the Chiefs earlier this season. Brady’s also thrown for a lot of yards in previous Super Bowls, throwing for a record 505 yards in Super Bowl LII.
Tom Brady’s total rushing yards: Over 0.5 (+165), Under 0.5 (-210). Over 19 games this season, Brady’s rushed for just five yards. He’s only rushed for a yard or more in four games this season. The other thing to beware of is that kneel-downs count in the rushing total. So, say if Brady has two rushing yards and the Buccaneers just need to kneel the clock out to win the Super Bowl, an over bet would lose.
Tom Brady’s total touchdown passes: Over 1.5 (-215), Under 1.5 (+165). Over 2.5 (+130), Under 2.5 (-162). As mentioned earlier, Brady’s touchdown passes per game average in the regular season was 2.5 and 2.3 in the playoffs. He threw for three touchdowns in the Bucs’ loss to the Chiefs in November.
Tom Brady’s total first-quarter touchdown passes: Over 0.5 +180. Brady has thrown a touchdown pass in the first quarter in four of the Buccaneers’ last five games. However, he and the Bucs were shut out in the first quarter in the November matchup against the Chiefs.
Tom Brady touchdown scores: First touchdown scorer +3500. Last touchdown scorer +3500. Anytime touchdown scorer +450. Again, this deals with just rushing or receiving touchdowns. Though, maybe you feel like Brady will pull his trademarked QB sneak to help seal a Buccaneers win. As mentioned earlier, Brady’s rushed for just four touchdowns this season.
Tom Brady to win Super Bowl MVP: +210. If the Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV, it’s likely that Brady will win Super Bowl MVP. Quarterbacks have won the award in 30 of the 54 games, with a player on the winning team winning the award all but once in the 54-year history of the game. Brady’s won the award four times in his career, the most in Super Bowl history.
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