Another Monday, another dry week and more fire danger. This morning high fire danger alerts or red flag warnings, are up from Kentucky to New Hampshire. (see below) The major lack of rain continues to leave the ground tinder dry. There is the chance for a few light showers at the start of the week, but nothing significant in terms of rain is on the horizon.
The weather map this morning (see above) shows a weak front (boundary between different types of air) moving off the east coast. This front doesn’t have much moisture to work with, so there is little chance for rain today. Winds behind the front are going to be quite strong and those winds, combined with the dry conditions, are the reason for the red flag warning.
A storm well north of Maine is also spinning some moisture towards New England the next few days. Notice the movement of the clouds near Maine on the satellite loop above is to the west. You will see forecasters put a chance for showers into their forecasts today right through Thursday. The key here is that any showers that do occur would be short-lived, and not amount to much water. As a matter of fact, showers may be part of the forecast for the next 4 days, but the chance is so slim, you could not see a shower the entire time.
Why put showers into the forecast if the chance is so low? The reason forecasters put them in, I believe, is that if someone does get a shower, its a CYA sort of reasoning. I try to really put the idea that most places will stay dry and play down the rainfall.
I could not mention the showers at all this week and be correct about the forecast for most people. I think we, as meteorologists, like to cover the outliers too much. Sometimes, during snowstorms, the public focuses too much on the highest amounts, or the worst case scenario and not the main thrust of the forecast.
Day to day forecast
All that said, today looks mostly cloudy, which means some sunny breaks. You could see that quick sprinkle this morning but basically its a dry day. The biggest weather factor today will be the wind, it will gust quite strong this afternoon. Highs up near 60
Tuesday will see a blend of clouds and some sunshine, still that risk you might see a shower but most of the time is rain free for sure.
Wednesday and Thursday will feature more of the same pattern. Temperatures will remain in the mid 50s during the afternoon and overnight will stay above freezing.
Friday into the weekend right now looks like more sunshine and no rain. Temperatures will warm into the 60s.
Gardening tip of the week
One of my favorite flowering azaleas is the vaseyi variety. This plant, native to the Carolina area is a reliable early bloomer in the garden and will flower in a shady spot. If you are looking for a great plant for early spring color, check this out. It might be hard to find, but its worth the hunt.